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On December 09 2015 03:04 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 02:51 disformation wrote:On December 09 2015 02:43 NocturneMage wrote:On December 09 2015 02:29 Fidei86 wrote:
(Disclaimer: Currently drunk)
What are the odds that Mafia Trfel thread re-enters and calls the current wagon dumpster, and tries for a wagon on NM or Rels who nobody else wants to vote? High. He did this last game, I'm almost positive. Hm. He came in when 3 ppl where voting on his teammate D1 and called that wagon mafia motivated and tried to discredit the wagon starter. Doesn't that mean that it would be Trfel DYH? Does that team even make sense? Is it likely the two main wagons Trfel and DYH (NM! Lynch LS with me) are both Mafia? Xmas party at work.
It is absolutely possible that the team is HTS/DYH/Trfel (particularly with Trfel's hard defence of DYH and DYH looking into Trfel, albeit slightly delayed), and I said to Rels that the points on DYH can be sorted, but the evidence against Trfel is more definitive and alignment indicative than what is on DYH.
How likely is another question though and I had tried to make the argument that you always lynch the more likely mafia of the two. HTS was 1000% more likely than DYH yesterday, and Trfel is much more likely than DYH today. he is making a position change that he cannot possibly believe. the bussing argument has been beaten to death, rels needs to explain how the read on me isn't natural because I'm apparently too dumb to see it.
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On December 09 2015 03:08 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 03:04 Fidei86 wrote:On December 09 2015 02:51 disformation wrote:On December 09 2015 02:43 NocturneMage wrote:On December 09 2015 02:29 Fidei86 wrote:
(Disclaimer: Currently drunk)
What are the odds that Mafia Trfel thread re-enters and calls the current wagon dumpster, and tries for a wagon on NM or Rels who nobody else wants to vote? High. He did this last game, I'm almost positive. Hm. He came in when 3 ppl where voting on his teammate D1 and called that wagon mafia motivated and tried to discredit the wagon starter. Doesn't that mean that it would be Trfel DYH? Does that team even make sense? Is it likely the two main wagons Trfel and DYH (NM! Lynch LS with me) are both Mafia? Xmas party at work. Why wouldn't it make sense (real question) ? What makes sense in that team is that Trfel is scumreading NM but townreading DYH, when there is an association between their strategies D2.
Clarification question - Is this separate from your NM read evolution argument? or is this THE evolution argument?
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On December 08 2015 22:01 Rels wrote:
Man I had forgotten that DYH was scum.
Please vote DYH and let's lynch scum.
I hope that's enough to make you (yes, you, reading this) switch; read his filter and understand why.
Hints:
- what is his only strong read ? Did it start after a replacement of someone special to HTS ? Could scum know NM would push HTS regardless of NM's alignement ?
- how strong is his other reads compared to his main one ?
- what evolution his NM read take ?
- is he doing nothing while tons of people are townreading him and fighting each other ?
I want to make sure I am understand this correctly in relation to what you said on the last page.
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On December 09 2015 03:11 NocturneMage wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 03:04 Fidei86 wrote:On December 09 2015 02:51 disformation wrote:On December 09 2015 02:43 NocturneMage wrote:On December 09 2015 02:29 Fidei86 wrote:
(Disclaimer: Currently drunk)
What are the odds that Mafia Trfel thread re-enters and calls the current wagon dumpster, and tries for a wagon on NM or Rels who nobody else wants to vote? High. He did this last game, I'm almost positive. Hm. He came in when 3 ppl where voting on his teammate D1 and called that wagon mafia motivated and tried to discredit the wagon starter. Doesn't that mean that it would be Trfel DYH? Does that team even make sense? Is it likely the two main wagons Trfel and DYH (NM! Lynch LS with me) are both Mafia? Xmas party at work. It is absolutely possible that the team is HTS/DYH/Trfel (particularly with Trfel's hard defence of DYH and DYH looking into Trfel, albeit slightly delayed), and I said to Rels that the points on DYH can be sorted, but the evidence against Trfel is more definitive and alignment indicative than what is on DYH. How likely is another question though and I had tried to make the argument that you always lynch the more likely mafia of the two. HTS was 1000% more likely than DYH yesterday, and Trfel is much more likely than DYH today. he is making a position change that he cannot possibly believe. the bussing argument has been beaten to death, rels needs to explain how the read on me isn't natural because I'm apparently too dumb to see it.
He mentioned that he kinda townread you; then he mentioned the NM busing theory makes some sense; then he drops it entirely.
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On December 09 2015 03:13 NocturneMage wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 03:08 Rels wrote:On December 09 2015 03:04 Fidei86 wrote:On December 09 2015 02:51 disformation wrote:On December 09 2015 02:43 NocturneMage wrote:On December 09 2015 02:29 Fidei86 wrote:
(Disclaimer: Currently drunk)
What are the odds that Mafia Trfel thread re-enters and calls the current wagon dumpster, and tries for a wagon on NM or Rels who nobody else wants to vote? High. He did this last game, I'm almost positive. Hm. He came in when 3 ppl where voting on his teammate D1 and called that wagon mafia motivated and tried to discredit the wagon starter. Doesn't that mean that it would be Trfel DYH? Does that team even make sense? Is it likely the two main wagons Trfel and DYH (NM! Lynch LS with me) are both Mafia? Xmas party at work. Why wouldn't it make sense (real question) ? What makes sense in that team is that Trfel is scumreading NM but townreading DYH, when there is an association between their strategies D2. Clarification question - Is this separate from your NM read evolution argument? or is this THE evolution argument?
Not at all.
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Okay, I read your argument again. You are making the argument their reads make them mafia by association.
Can you break down a position change that is not believable from DYH's realm with respect to his read on me? Can you break down a position or read change with respect to his read on anyone (aside from HTS)?
I am making this argument for Trfel thus I feel Trfel is more likely mafia than DYH.
I'm going to try and read on mobile one more time to make sure I'm not being dumb.
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On December 09 2015 03:11 NocturneMage wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 03:04 Fidei86 wrote:On December 09 2015 02:51 disformation wrote:On December 09 2015 02:43 NocturneMage wrote:On December 09 2015 02:29 Fidei86 wrote:
(Disclaimer: Currently drunk)
What are the odds that Mafia Trfel thread re-enters and calls the current wagon dumpster, and tries for a wagon on NM or Rels who nobody else wants to vote? High. He did this last game, I'm almost positive. Hm. He came in when 3 ppl where voting on his teammate D1 and called that wagon mafia motivated and tried to discredit the wagon starter. Doesn't that mean that it would be Trfel DYH? Does that team even make sense? Is it likely the two main wagons Trfel and DYH (NM! Lynch LS with me) are both Mafia? Xmas party at work. It is absolutely possible that the team is HTS/DYH/Trfel (particularly with Trfel's hard defence of DYH and DYH looking into Trfel, albeit slightly delayed), and I said to Rels that the points on DYH can be sorted, but the evidence against Trfel is more definitive and alignment indicative than what is on DYH. How likely is another question though and I had tried to make the argument that you always lynch the more likely mafia of the two. HTS was 1000% more likely than DYH yesterday, and Trfel is much more likely than DYH today. he is making a position change that he cannot possibly believe. the bussing argument has been beaten to death, rels needs to explain how the read on me isn't natural because I'm apparently too dumb to see it.
What exactly do you mean with the "position change that he cannot possibly believe." His switch onto Rels just now?
His last mention of Rels is this bit at the end of:
On December 06 2015 11:17 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 11:13 The Shining wrote:
Lol I didn't see that post. +1 for agreeing. I don't like silent nights either, I was just poking fun at you with the case comment lol. Whenever you decide to make that case, though, I'll read it but considering I have you both town, and no one has really run interference between you two, my gut tells me it's a town v town kind of thing. Especially since you're under suspicion.
Actually you said a lot of people are suspicious of you. I have a few that come to mind when you say that but who were you referring to? I'm always terrible at trying to understand the "town vs town" or "mafia vs town" or "mafia vs mafia" conclusions that people make with regards to arguments... Can you please walk me through why you think it's town vs town (other than individual reads)? Why would mafia want to "run interference" (assuming you're meaning break up the argument) between two townies scumreading each other? I'm referring to nearly everyone. DoYouHas, Rels, Fidei86, LightningStrike, disformation, NocturneMage, Fecalfeast, and Palmar, I think. Could be wrong on one or two, but either way that is a lot of people.
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You ninjaed me (1784). Let me try and follow that then.
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On December 09 2015 03:19 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 03:11 NocturneMage wrote:On December 09 2015 03:04 Fidei86 wrote:On December 09 2015 02:51 disformation wrote:On December 09 2015 02:43 NocturneMage wrote:On December 09 2015 02:29 Fidei86 wrote:
(Disclaimer: Currently drunk)
What are the odds that Mafia Trfel thread re-enters and calls the current wagon dumpster, and tries for a wagon on NM or Rels who nobody else wants to vote? High. He did this last game, I'm almost positive. Hm. He came in when 3 ppl where voting on his teammate D1 and called that wagon mafia motivated and tried to discredit the wagon starter. Doesn't that mean that it would be Trfel DYH? Does that team even make sense? Is it likely the two main wagons Trfel and DYH (NM! Lynch LS with me) are both Mafia? Xmas party at work. It is absolutely possible that the team is HTS/DYH/Trfel (particularly with Trfel's hard defence of DYH and DYH looking into Trfel, albeit slightly delayed), and I said to Rels that the points on DYH can be sorted, but the evidence against Trfel is more definitive and alignment indicative than what is on DYH. How likely is another question though and I had tried to make the argument that you always lynch the more likely mafia of the two. HTS was 1000% more likely than DYH yesterday, and Trfel is much more likely than DYH today. he is making a position change that he cannot possibly believe. the bussing argument has been beaten to death, rels needs to explain how the read on me isn't natural because I'm apparently too dumb to see it. What exactly do you mean with the "position change that he cannot possibly believe." His switch onto Rels just now? His last mention of Rels is this bit at the end of: Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 11:17 Trfel wrote:On December 06 2015 11:13 The Shining wrote:
Lol I didn't see that post. +1 for agreeing. I don't like silent nights either, I was just poking fun at you with the case comment lol. Whenever you decide to make that case, though, I'll read it but considering I have you both town, and no one has really run interference between you two, my gut tells me it's a town v town kind of thing. Especially since you're under suspicion.
Actually you said a lot of people are suspicious of you. I have a few that come to mind when you say that but who were you referring to? I'm always terrible at trying to understand the "town vs town" or "mafia vs town" or "mafia vs mafia" conclusions that people make with regards to arguments... Can you please walk me through why you think it's town vs town (other than individual reads)? Why would mafia want to "run interference" (assuming you're meaning break up the argument) between two townies scumreading each other? I'm referring to nearly everyone. DoYouHas, Rels, Fidei86, LightningStrike, disformation, NocturneMage, Fecalfeast, and Palmar, I think. Could be wrong on one or two, but either way that is a lot of people.
My query to Rels is regarding DYH, not Trfel.
For my case on Trfel, I made a v long list of read progression late yesterday afternoon, and my main argument to sum it in one sentence was that he uses an argument to determine that moosy's slot was town and then throws in the bussing theory out of nowhere. typically you use supporting evidence before the bussing argument, not the other way around. the rest of trfel's case on me has been utter garbage based on circumstantial evidence.
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On December 09 2015 03:19 NocturneMage wrote:
Okay, I read your argument again. You are making the argument their reads make them mafia by association.
Can you break down a position change that is not believable from DYH's realm with respect to his read on me? Can you break down a position or read change with respect to his read on anyone (aside from HTS)?
I am making this argument for Trfel thus I feel Trfel is more likely mafia than DYH.
I'm going to try and read on mobile one more time to make sure I'm not being dumb.
On this matter, no, its a Trfel problem.
What is extremely weird is the strength of dyh s case just after you got replaced compares to all his other reads this game. He even said before deadline he read Hts filter and found nothing to say; after you get replaced, suddenly a case. Since the lynch he s done almost nothing.
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so I need to check and weigh two things when I get home. thinking this through.
(1) reads for townreading to bussing stance and then dropping suspicions
(2) timing of stances between suspicion of me.
I know I already looked from the point I replaced in.
I replaced in at 2300 even GMT
0140 (approx) I notice his post minutes before my intro and my comment on HTS later to which he responded. I didn't find anything suspicious at that time because I felt the method to look at kush's reads was normal but I might have been biased because I know how HTS plays her agenda based scumgame.
The amount of time to construct the case on HTS might come into play as well as whatever he said before my replacing in.
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ebwop - misstatement
(2) timing of stances between evolution and suspicion of HTS and how he weighed (if any) the bussing argument on me.
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I get home in about an hour but I really need a pc to sort that part out. This is v painful to do splitting between opera browser tabs and a mobile notepad.
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So you guys are saying that this:
On December 06 2015 08:04 Trfel wrote:
Okay, so NOW we can talk about what the flip means about other peoples' alignments.
The reason I wanted to wait is to see what Half the Sky did when she came back to the thread. Not what she did, but how much effort she put in.
If the lynch was led by non-mafia, Half the Sky would be more likely to put in a ton of effort to try and fight it. If the lynch was led by mafia, Half the Sky would be more likely to avoid fighting it, since it's inevitable.
To me, Half the Sky's effort appeared to be an attempt to make it look like the bus wasn't planned and that she was sort of trying to fight it, but that seems that it wasn't the case. Half the Sky's End of Day play looked more like she was playing for completeness instead of trying to survive.
Half the Sky, for future reference, when you come back to the thread like that you aren't supposed to answer questions. You're getting lynched there no matter what, don't answer questions and give last reads. A list post, or something. There wasn't really any doubt about your alignment, but just so you know for the future.
Should not only apply to NM but also to DYH?
But his last read on DYH is a town lean:
On December 05 2015 18:00 Trfel wrote:
Most of my issues with DoYouHas are, on some level, wording issues. This really makes me hesitate to lynch him, because wording issues aren't very reliable.
A lot of the things that DoYouHas has done this game are fairly good. His reads feel natural and town motivated, and while I don't agree with a lot of his decisions (or think that his conclusions are what he ought to arrive at based on what he says), I don't feel that his conclusions are faked and it feels more like he genuinely just thinks differently than me.
Unfortunately, when DoYouHas came back towards End of Day 1, he wasn't very active. He didn't seem to really care to look into lynch candidates or push his lynch at all. While I don't like this, I can still see it coming from town for a variety of reasons, it leaves a horrible taste in my mouth, but I can't lynch DoYouHas for this alone. One interesting thing that I noticed about this is to look at the times where DoYouHas comes to the thread on each day (24 hour day, not mafia day). In the first and third 24 hour day, he arrives 2-3 hours after the deadline. In the second 24 hour day (where the lynch is), he arrives an hour before the deadline. This suggests that he might be busier than normal at this time, and perhaps not in full capacity to read, post, and investigate things. This isn't all that important, but it's an example of a potential hole in the scumread for this reason. DoYouHas didn't mention this, but he does seem to be an extremely slow player, such that an hour may not be enough time for him to do a that much reading and trying to find a lynch target.
Looking more carefully at DoYouHas' case on Half the Sky, more than half of the points are directly about or primarily refer to things that happened towards End of Day 1, or after he first went through Half the Sky's filter and got nothing.
Also, I sort of asked some questions to DoYouHas earlier that he already answered. And he already answered in exactly the way that I'd expect town to answer. It doesn't make him town, by any means, but he continues to respond to suspicion exactly like I feel that town would.
Ignoring associations with Half the Sky for now (and will continue do so until after the lynch, or perhaps baby seals), DoYouHas still seems like a town lean. His play is not scummy, wording issues aren't scummy. His play makes sense and shows some critical thinking. The biggest issue with his play is activity. While he was more active in previous games, two things. First, those games were a long time ago, it's very possible that either his schedule or play has changed since then. Second, games were a bit shorter then and the playstyle was different. I think that it is safest to primarily judge his play based on what he's done in this game, and I don't feel comfortable lynching him at all. Probably a town lean, though the lower activity makes this difficult, but I think I go with my instinct for now (that DoYouHas is town).
So to him NM is a individual scum read and could be bussing, while DYH is a town lean that could be bussing. So NM over DYH makes sense to me from that perspective. No clue what to think about that rels switch though.
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This party is going on and I won't have time to read more filters. Please move on to LS. I will consolidate if it's clear its Trfel or DY, but I don't want to lynch either of them right now.
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On December 09 2015 05:07 Fidei86 wrote:
This party is going on and I won't have time to read more filters. Please move on to LS. I will consolidate if it's clear its Trfel or DY, but I don't want to lynch either of them right now.
Well. I have a pretty good case on DYH imo. So I obv would prefer lynching him.
Trfel is a waffleboat and his Rels vote is pretty much wtf.
I am kinda sheeping Damdred and Rels on LS, not too fond of his filter personally.
*sigh* let me look at Trfel a bit once more.
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
Some gentle reminders:
1. Voting is mandatory
2. Posting after :59 at the deadline is prohibited.
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I love Monday Tuesday phases. /sarcasm
Phone posting. I still want to lynch ff or disfo, honestly. FF taking the cheap sheep route is bad. And disfos posts just aren't feeling like the town disfo I played with before. Weak meta reads because I don't have time to filter but I really do feel I'm right on at least one of these, probably disfo.
I liked DYHs points on hts association, too, I've made similar cases over weird interactions and reads between scummates before. I wish he hadn't backed down on it.
NM Rels Trfel and DYH are town pile. Fidei doesn't feel as bad to me anymore. Voting disfo or ff.
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On December 09 2015 06:14 The Shining wrote:
I love Monday Tuesday phases. /sarcasm
Phone posting. I still want to lynch ff or disfo, honestly. FF taking the cheap sheep route is bad. And disfos posts just aren't feeling like the town disfo I played with before. Weak meta reads because I don't have time to filter but I really do feel I'm right on at least one of these, probably disfo.
I liked DYHs points on hts association, too, I've made similar cases over weird interactions and reads between scummates before. I wish he hadn't backed down on it.
NM Rels Trfel and DYH are town pile. Fidei doesn't feel as bad to me anymore. Voting disfo or ff.
Did you at least read my case on DYH?
Like I wrote the best case of my "career" on tl.net and everybody is just like "nah". -.-
Meanwhile: Trfel's filter is still as tough as old boots.
But can anyone tell my why he is voting Rels? There was a kinda old case in his filter that was pretty bad, followed by some waffling on Rels, but no idea why he would stick his vote onto Rels... -.-
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EPT
