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shockey/rels/hts and anyone else on #team target
I have the 5th nomination. if all 4 are voted down I get the final say and that will probably be the mission team. Just keep that in mind when your making your votes. We can outsmart the scum here
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On November 08 2015 13:27 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2015 13:23 sicklucker wrote:On November 08 2015 12:00 ShoCkeyy wrote:On November 08 2015 11:57 Half the Sky wrote: I anticipate I will be up until 0400 my time (or another hour and change from this post) so if anyone wants to talk, will do.
I answered Rels' questions, I got Artanis's earlier, if I missed yours, flag me. I read the last 10 pages and I don't think I missed any more.
Since Rels is up for debate, I'll prioritise him over the Xata meta analysis... How about you talk to me on how Xata and rayn both still town read each other and attack SL after the first mission? =[ we lost Why say that?
frusteration
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On November 08 2015 13:25 sicklucker wrote: hts just vote no on every nomination. I have the 5th and last nominationo f the cycle so I will just put a team of you and me and they cant vote it down
Interesting thought, I see where you are going with this, but still this means we have to find 3 other people we're confident in if we get that far. It can't hurt for me to progress on Rels when I next get the chance to, you can't ignore he will come up before that 5th nomination.
And Shockey, like I said, it's meta. I understand completely if you don't trust it, the only way you will truly understand is by playing and/or observing multiple games with rayn. I tried giving multiple reference points via others in other games so that you can at least see that I'm not saying this just to townread him - this is just how he is as town. And unfortunately as he's even said to me, he won't blame the loss of the game on himself, he'll only blame it on the scummy looking townies (or looking at that situation in isolation, in that case, sicklucker).
4:30am...I'm out. Night lovelies.
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I think my nomination is the best chance for town because we wont have 3 scum voting against my team if im correct. I was not aware of the order but i would be open to a rels submission
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so hts lets say you think both me and rels are town. The team rels submits is voted on. so its most likely only going to pass if it includes a scum because it will get 3 votes from scum. But since the team I submit will have no vote we dont have this problem. Its still a gamble that im right but its a good gamble. With the team rels submits theres no upside because either scum will pass or it or its likely fails.
Thats my two cents im still open to it tho
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On November 08 2015 10:31 raynpelikoneet wrote: i am voting yes and rels should have no objection. :p Did you read any of what I wrote ?
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On November 08 2015 11:55 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2015 05:38 Rels wrote:On November 08 2015 05:10 Half the Sky wrote: ebwop
PPA - percentage play analysis
I need to get to a PC but it's not happening until after deadline.
Also people if I'm missing any questions (even yours Rels) flag me please. Even if I never get on a team if people can understand my direction on things, haphazard as it might be at least you'll consider the fact other people might be Mafia. (At least Superbia understood for a second why I'm playing a suboptimal game.) On November 08 2015 03:33 Rels wrote:On November 07 2015 22:37 Half the Sky wrote: Eh, I'm voting any team with Rels down on it. The previous team was definitely better.
Even Rels aside, there should be some discussion on Superbia, whom some people are having doubts on.
Enjoy the concert though. I could understand you dodging questions when you were working super hard during the week. I can even confirm that is true. But two days ago, then yesterday, I asked you the same question, and I find it super hard to believe you missed it two times when you're free now. So, if only to ease me, can you answer ? On November 07 2015 09:18 Rels wrote:On November 07 2015 08:10 Half the Sky wrote: Alright, I know I said sicklucker was the most likely since he was the "least town" but I think especially because the first mission (!!!) failed, it really might be worth our while to tinfoil rayn and Xatalos to make sure we didn't miss anything. Can you explain this ? On November 06 2015 18:22 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 08:41 Half the Sky wrote: Ah got it James. <3
I'd say at least 2. I think maayyyybe one was smart enough to suck it up and pass? Could be SL for all we know.
And that's a really good question to Shockey, Xata. That doesn't make sense. If SL is mafia and "suck it up and pass" the team, then he didn't "suck it up", he voted "yes" to a team with a scum in it. You seem to assume: - SL is town, since you're wondering whether 2 or 3 mafias voted against it, so it has to be a clean team - SL is mafia, since he could have suck it up and pass Or is there another logical explanation for this post ? 'cause I'm not seeing it So I saw this. I'll be honest, from this I actually cannot tell what you are asking, - I think you are asking me to make sense of why I think SL is sucking it up? I'll start by clarifying my statement. The "smart enough to suck it up and pass" comment was in relation to the fact that in RL resistance most three-person teams (mission 1) pass, based on my previous assumption that that three-person team was town and even with the conventional strategy that a scum would not want to give themselves away by failing the first mission. A scum SL (or scum anyone) would in theory be reluctant to pass that team. That comment was made BEFORE the mission failed. See page 67 of the game, and this was as Xatalos was talking about the no votes being scum votes. And that I was townreading xata/rayn at the time and making the assumption at that time the "least town" in sicklucker was mafia. (Posts 1334/1336) That was not in any way related to post-mission failure. If you read the comment in context on page 67, it should make more sense. That's why it sucks to answer a question so long after the question was made just after your list, during the phase before the failure reveal, whatever the name of the the phase is. So I reformulate: if sl is mafia in this theory, why do you say at least 2 mafias were against the vote ?
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Your list* is wrong but I have no idea what word I wanted to use :p I suppose it's your post*
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On November 08 2015 12:35 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 23:43 ShoCkeyy wrote:On November 07 2015 23:38 ShoCkeyy wrote: You guys need to see how hard rayn is pushing for me to be scum... Like he's desperately trying to sound town and him and data defending each other gives it away even more. He was just on the first mission that got sabotaged and is still trying to target me even though I've already said I don't want to be on a mission. Stfu already rayn, you're mafia and I caught you early on. Now. This is the one. Now before I begin, a few things, just hear me out, I realise the entire game is scumreading me but I am going to explain point by point why most of what you are saying here is actually NAI on rayn. 1 rayn pushing for you hard to be scum is NAI. Here's why. As town, his tunnels are beyond brutal and sometimes beyond ridiculous, you ask any player (particularly the suboptimal towns or commonly scumread towns) he just assumes that logical = town, illogical = mafia. It has gotten townies mislynched and in Drams mafia left him alive (reference the mafia qt for that game) because he was massively wrong, and his attitude was destructive and created chaos for town. Other games where his tunnels have been criticised include Tropical Storm (GlowingBear? Damdred? I forget who), Drams (with rsoultin), Titanic 7 (myself), SOTW (with LightningStrike, etc), the list goes on. Now as mafia, the agenda is pretty obvious. If you're town, you are an easy player to push. But the point here was to discuss how his pushing you can be his town mentality. You may not trust my meta read, but at least two others have mentioned the "logical = town, illogical = mafia" and reading his comments on the game in Drams should shed some light on how he operates. (posts 1565 and 66) 2 That said. #1 lends him to talking to absolutes. Kita and myself have both mentioned this, which stems from the whole "logical = town, illogical = mafia" thing. From a mafia perspective you can argue if you want that they are buddying each other. Highlighting the quotes that show appeasement or TMI (usually after a prior scumread or as sicklucker said, Xatalos townread rayn almost immediately) would better help the rest of town see this if you are town. From a town mentality - again, this is meta, he always thinks he's right and he spent multiple points meta-reading and going into detail why Xatalos was town. See posts 222 (first read), 685, 760/761 (first explanation), 850 (shocking absolute statement - Xatalos is confirmed town), 1018 (this is partial meta, admittedly I couldn't trust it because I have yet to play a game with Xatalos is town). In all fairness, sicklucker who has a more erratic game, and is more difficult to read as either alignment is obvously never going to be townread as town, or at least not as easily. But based on all these posts he's made on Xata, he's not going to believe he's wrong or think he's wrong given the comp. The support WAS there. He won't consider for a second that Xatalos is (1) breaking meta (2) or taking advantage of suboptimal townies. TLDR - he just could be dead wrong and is too damned stubborn to admit itTLDR - possible town mentality is based in his stubbornness and his town tunnels are well known to be brutal, so what you are saying - yes again, meta, but I've given you multiple reference points - doesn't necessarily make him mafia. It just makes him ridiculously wrong. You haven't played enough games with him (and maybe that's a good thing? I digress) but this is what other players have cited. Right. And when i remove stupidity i will solve any game if scum is too dumb to leave me alive.
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My tunnel on you in titanic 7????? I didnt fucking post after d1 until i came up with all scum + you so fuck you and l2play....
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But yeah. You are right. I want to remove stupid. When there is bo stupid i will win.
So stop being stupid.
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I would say the person who comes back after partying for 24hours and gives you 7 people where 6 of them on D2 are either mafia or SK, and gets lynched for it, is not tunneling but BEING tunneled.
So you fucktards can all l2p and not blame ME for being a "tunneler".
That was the best game i have ever played, you were all terrible. So fuck you. Fuck you so much.
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Now for the rest of the game i am going to call HtS bad and make her feel bad. Hope she is scum.
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Like literally. If you reference a game where i made probably the best post TLmafia has ever seen and end up with a conclusion:
doesn't necessarily make him mafia. It just makes him ridiculously wrong. ..you're gonna feel it.
I get when i am called bad when i am actually bad. I get when i am called bad by better / equal players to me. You don't get to call me bad. You're fucking bad.
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For your fucking information in Tropical Storm i "tunneled" three fucking mafia. I would have lynched mafia on every fucking day if the town was not stupid and lynch deconduo on D1.
So fuck you again.
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I was even tunneled enough to convince the cop that HIS GREEN CHECK IS MAFIA.
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On November 08 2015 03:28 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 22:34 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 22:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 07 2015 22:30 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 22:27 raynpelikoneet wrote: Artanis i would really like you to swap me with Rels. I think Rels has a good chance of being scum though. I'd feel more comfortable with about anyone else but Shockeyy and probably sicklucker (though I'm not entirely convinced it's sicklucker over Xata) IT doesn't even matter if the team gets yay'd or not. It forces sicklucker to give actual reads (as now he is just hiding behind "i will nay everything with Xata/rayn in it") and we'll hear something new from Shockeyy unless he wants that team to go on a mission. Basically if i am on the mission two of the people i think are mafia have a bullshit reason to downvote it and continue saying nothing on other people. Hmmmm It seems very risky though. And I don't like the idea of nominating a team I think likely has a spy. Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 22:35 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 22:34 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 07 2015 22:32 Artanis[Xp] wrote: If there is 1 scum in you/xata/sl, and I think there likely is, that means there's 2 scum in Rels/HtS/Shockeyy/Superbia/Kita and I have to select the exact 3 townies from the 5. That seems like a much harder task than selecting the player I have a strong townread on from the mission that failed. I know but the current concensus seems to be only to talk about people who are nominated atm. You can change your mind, but let's see what those people have to say about the team i proposed. Okay, fair enough. I have a concert tonight though so my final team will probably be submitted around like 17:45 GMT (+00:00) unless I read enough on mobile to change my mind by the end of it. ##Nominate Artanis[Xp], Rels, kitaman27, Superbia THAT DOESNT MAKE ANY SENSE 1 - unless I missed it, you didn't explain why you thought I was scum 2 - you're nominating a team that you think will fail just because rayn told you ? The only explanation I see is that you're scum trying to pass a failure team, put the blame on me (Haha I told you so!) and on rayn (but rayn told me to do that!). I have explained why I think you're likely scum. The gist of it comes down to how it seems like you're just throwing shit at everyone and seeing what sticks, and how you seem to be posting just to be posting. That "vote analysis" thing I dissected was an example of that.
As for 2, think harder.
On November 08 2015 18:32 raynpelikoneet wrote: Now for the rest of the game i am going to call HtS bad and make her feel bad. Hope she is scum. Please Rayn, don't Saying this off the record: I enjoy playing with you and I think you're a great dude, but you need to not allow things to get to you so much man. People can have differing opinions on things and people can be wrong. That doesn't give you the authority to be a dick over it. Hit me up and we'll play a game if you're still feeling shitty.
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On November 08 2015 18:47 raynpelikoneet wrote: I was even tunneled enough to convince the cop that HIS GREEN CHECK IS MAFIA. Damn, that cop must've been really good
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On November 08 2015 21:23 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2015 03:28 Rels wrote:On November 07 2015 22:34 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 22:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 07 2015 22:30 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 22:27 raynpelikoneet wrote: Artanis i would really like you to swap me with Rels. I think Rels has a good chance of being scum though. I'd feel more comfortable with about anyone else but Shockeyy and probably sicklucker (though I'm not entirely convinced it's sicklucker over Xata) IT doesn't even matter if the team gets yay'd or not. It forces sicklucker to give actual reads (as now he is just hiding behind "i will nay everything with Xata/rayn in it") and we'll hear something new from Shockeyy unless he wants that team to go on a mission. Basically if i am on the mission two of the people i think are mafia have a bullshit reason to downvote it and continue saying nothing on other people. Hmmmm It seems very risky though. And I don't like the idea of nominating a team I think likely has a spy. On November 07 2015 22:35 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 22:34 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 07 2015 22:32 Artanis[Xp] wrote: If there is 1 scum in you/xata/sl, and I think there likely is, that means there's 2 scum in Rels/HtS/Shockeyy/Superbia/Kita and I have to select the exact 3 townies from the 5. That seems like a much harder task than selecting the player I have a strong townread on from the mission that failed. I know but the current concensus seems to be only to talk about people who are nominated atm. You can change your mind, but let's see what those people have to say about the team i proposed. Okay, fair enough. I have a concert tonight though so my final team will probably be submitted around like 17:45 GMT (+00:00) unless I read enough on mobile to change my mind by the end of it. ##Nominate Artanis[Xp], Rels, kitaman27, Superbia THAT DOESNT MAKE ANY SENSE 1 - unless I missed it, you didn't explain why you thought I was scum 2 - you're nominating a team that you think will fail just because rayn told you ? The only explanation I see is that you're scum trying to pass a failure team, put the blame on me (Haha I told you so!) and on rayn (but rayn told me to do that!). I have explained why I think you're likely scum. The gist of it comes down to how it seems like you're just throwing shit at everyone and seeing what sticks, and how you seem to be posting just to be posting. That "vote analysis" thing I dissected was an example of that. As for 2, think harder. Show nested quote +On November 08 2015 18:32 raynpelikoneet wrote: Now for the rest of the game i am going to call HtS bad and make her feel bad. Hope she is scum. Please Rayn, don't Saying this off the record: I enjoy playing with you and I think you're a great dude, but you need to not allow things to get to you so much man. People can have differing opinions on things and people can be wrong. That doesn't give you the authority to be a dick over it. Hit me up and we'll play a game if you're still feeling shitty. 1 - your scumread on me wasn't displayed in thread, as demonstrated here: + Show Spoiler +On November 08 2015 04:20 Rels wrote:Arta's read evolution on me: Show nested quote +On November 05 2015 06:44 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Need to re-eval rels more when I actually have a pc and can compare filters. Moving him back to null/fear read though. Null read - need evaluation.Show nested quote +On November 06 2015 06:34 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 06:22 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 02:15 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 05 2015 22:29 Half the Sky wrote:On the topic of Artanis, I know he said he'd free up more Thursday so I look forward to reading more from him. Can't recall if he has capoeira today though, IRL he has been on a tear with that. Which means if he drops by in the UK, his first objective will be to dropkick me. Damn it. Nope, I'm gonna mostly have time for the next four hours. I may drop by to dropkick you anyway though On November 05 2015 07:23 Rels wrote:On November 05 2015 06:31 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Oh jesus rels is involved in everything as mafia too x_x How do you know I'm involved in everything as town as well ? I'm pretty sure we never played together ?? Two things: A) I assume most people have far more involved town games than scumgames. My townread on you came from the fact that you seem very active and involved in almost every discussion. That's generally enough to townread most players. B) I have seen you play town before, though I haven't played with you. I'm not sure which game I was observing anymore but I have done so. Also C) I never called you scum. I said you're back to null because what I thought made you town is apparently not alignment indicative. OK that makes sense. Security check: can you link me to the game in question ? All my games are in my profile so that should take you like 5 seconds. Im also pretty sure you said you would be reading my filter and evaluating me. Will you do it, or are you pulling a Hts ? Student Mafia XVI. I was a coach there too. I did kinda evaluate you, though not as thoroughly yet as I need to. I also want to know why you suddenly decided to re-eval Rayn. Didn't finish the eval. Rels why did you re evaluate rayn ?Show nested quote +On November 06 2015 18:29 Artanis[Xp] wrote: I'm kind of around but at work. Not much to say until we find out if the mission passes or not honestly. If it does, I'm obviously nominating myself with the other three. Don't want to say too much about it before the pass/fail happens to not give any clues to any spy whether they should sabotage or not.
@Rels/HtS your explanations were satisfactory, though I'd still like to hear from HtS what exactly changed her mind on me when she's on a pc. Rels, your explanation was satisfactory.Show nested quote +On November 06 2015 19:45 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 19:42 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 19:29 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 19:25 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 19:20 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 19:15 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 19:12 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 19:08 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 19:03 Artanis[Xp] wrote: [quote] Because I just don't understand the point of the post you made. Thinking about the different possible scenarios that could happen from that vote pattern, regardless of what I think of the players myself, so it's easier to understand what's going on when we get the result. I just don't really get why you're going into scenario's where you'll never be able to discern which is which though. Like I said; being "unlikely" that they'd pass a mission with a mafia in it only to follow it up with the fact that it is possible You list the possible scenarios, but I'm pretty sure everyone's already figured that if the 3-person mission passes and the 4-person mission fails, it is in fact possible for one of the people in the 3-person mission to still be a spy. Cause I want it to be clear in my head. And that worked; I discovered that if success-then-fail happened, determining your alignment via behaviour will solve a big part of the game. Well yes, determining the alignment of the 4th player when there's a 3-success then 4-fail is probably important. It just seems like you went for a pretty.. roundabout way of approaching it? Eh, whatever, it's not that important I guess. I kinda wanna hear more from you about Rayn and SL, but I think it's best to wait for the results first. LOL OK said like that it's sound super dumb. (= It has something else to do with voting though: if the team is clean, the scum team is probably shockey / Superbia / kita. If one of them is wrong, you have to be the last scum, since the team is clean and HTS could have voted "no" super easily with what she was saying just before deadline. How are you ever going to determine if the team is clean though? This is what I didn't get from your analysis. Well, by playing the game. There is no way to know for sure: we'll have to use behaviour analysis, vote analysis, etc. I like having all the different scenarios in my head, so I can see which one is more likely; like if I cross this analysis with my reads, I'm pretty sure the team is not clean, 'cause that would either mean that kita / shockey / Superbia are the scums or that you are scum and voted for a clean team. So, your analysis decided that if a 3-player team passes and a 4-player team fails, we need behaviour and vote analysis to determine whether the 4th player is scum or town, and thus decide whether the 3-player team is clean or not. I think you may be on to something here. (after a back and forth) You made a post that didn't say anything.Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 18:59 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 18:58 raynpelikoneet wrote: I really think you should pick Rels. You will never get this team yay-voted. Why do you suddenly think Rels is town? Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 19:04 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 19:00 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 07 2015 18:59 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 18:58 raynpelikoneet wrote: I really think you should pick Rels. You will never get this team yay-voted. Why do you suddenly think Rels is town? Because it doesn't make sense that 2 sscum voted nay and Shockeyy is 100% scum. I can see it making sense. When scum scumread players on the suggested team, they can't yayvote regardless of what they want. Shockey scumread you and xata and rels scumread you and SL. Even if they wanted to yayvote, they couldn't given their reads. Though I guess I can see how Rels' scumread on both of you came after the team was already nominated, so it was a choice and he didn't really need to turn around and do that. I need to check if he scumread SL before the team was suggested now. Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 19:05 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Yeah Rels had been suspicious of SL a lot already so there was no way he could vote yes to the mission. Sudden scumread ?Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 19:10 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 09:52 Rels wrote:On November 07 2015 09:45 Xatalos wrote:On November 07 2015 09:16 Rels wrote:On November 07 2015 08:00 Fidei86 wrote: !!! MISSION FAILED !!! 1 Sabotage action detected.
Day 2 Artanis[Xp]'s Nomination Phase Phase will end in at 23:00 GMT (+00:00) on 7 November 2015. Alright then we have at least one scum in Xata / rayn / SL. Then I think we have at the very least 2 scums in Xata / rayn / SL / HTS / Arta, maybe 3. I think that's a reasonable assumption... But rayn is most likely town, so I guess that would mean HTS, Artanis and SL would be scum? Kind of hard to see at least Artanis being scum, HTS maybe. So I'd guess there are 1+ scum hiding in the NO votes as well. Don't know, I'm kinda re evaluating everything here. The obvious answer to me is "rayn is scum, SL is town, rayn put SL to blame him when the team fails." Then at least HTS or Arta with him, maybe both. But SL is not obvious town either, so I'm not sure. And let's not forget YOU are the one that nominated the failing team. If you're scum, that would mean you broke your meta, but that's possible. Okay, hold up, timeline: 1. Rels considered SL scummy. 2. Rels started considering Rayn scummy. 3. Rels still considered SL scummy. 4. Mission fails. 5. Rels considers SL obvious town because he's being set up by Rayn. What happened between 3 and 5 that made you think it's MORE likely for SL to be town after the mission fails? Here is a thing Rels did that was weird.Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 22:30 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 22:27 raynpelikoneet wrote: Artanis i would really like you to swap me with Rels. I think Rels has a good chance of being scum though. I'd feel more comfortable with about anyone else but Shockeyy and probably sicklucker (though I'm not entirely convinced it's sicklucker over Xata) Rels has a good chance of being scum.This makes no sense. I'm null - need eval; since then: - Arta commented on two weird things I did from his POV - I voted NO to a failure team and I have a good chance of being scum ? Artanis. Explain yourself. Plus, assuming you think I'm scum; you think Xata or SL is scum; who is the third from your POV ? Either HTS, or one of the NO voters ?
2 - I don't get it.
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So we wait...
Semi-confused by that post from Artanis that Rels quoted, but I guess he'll explain it afterwards.
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