Tbh I'm not really sure about that chrom read of mine :/ He always stuck out to me early on, but he's putting in short bursts of effort that look pretty good, mostly, That's what made me change my mind from time to time.
And when I read 1gu's filter I don't see a read on Chrom, methinks. These are his last few reads. And I doubt that he was bussing a mafia who was playing so well so I suppose BH isn't it. Gum could be, or Chrom.
On October 26 2015 23:03 Onegu wrote: So BH says I am scum because I come into the thread before I sleep to make a post. A post about something I have been thinking about. Then he brings something up. I say ok yeah maybe you are right we can discuss it before I vote him. Then I go to sleep because it is am local time.
And BH know that I just peace out as both alignments. Moreso as town so that should be NAI to him. Would lynch BH.
Out of the 2 wagons right now I could lynch either of them. Would lean more to Yamato as he looked really townie day one but then did nothing n1 and d2. This matches up to his scum meta as just fucking off and doing nothing. And I know he wasnt working because I was playing Dota with him.
Onegu i want a straight answer. What does the bolded & underlined part refer to?
It refers to I was playing Dota with him last night.
I dont get what you are looking for here rayn.
You cant do activity reads on Yamato because he works alot. But this game I know he has free time. That effects my read on him here.
but you call him mafia for it?
No I am not calling him mafia rayn. I am null on him. I am null on GB. They are the 2 current wagons. I gave my thoughts on the wagons. I said if I had to choose from the wagons I would vote Yamato.
well who is scum?
Hopeless. BH. Ritoky.
I also dont like xata.
I thought gumshoe was mafia for a while but he looks much better now.
On November 07 2015 02:28 Chromatically wrote: Vivax, what's your order of who you think is the most to least scummy right now?
I think you all played this game similarly, you probably the least, being one of those who pushed GB with quite the effort. I'd put you into the towniest spot tentatively, BH in the middle and gumshoe as the scummiest. That might change upon reread.
question vivax, do you think the no shot was the best choice for today?
It's an odd question since everyone agreed it was. It just makes it harder for everyone to figure out the last maf, so yes, it was the best choice.
I understand it was super obvius for you that it would be a no shot, but wasnt really for anyone else
Bh
My initial thought remains "let's post our reads right before EoN" so that scum can't plan who to shoot for LYLO, but honestly our reads are already pretty much out there. I'll do the usual End of Night read post but I'm glad to discuss things with people before then.
Chrom
Huh. That's true. I guess we should just use this as extra discussion time.
me in response to you.
promise?
basically, you say it was super obvious, but no one elses mind just went there like yours did / : but that's a low blow, what I am really getting at, is you knew mafia were taking weird shots.
At best the ritoky NK was weird cause he really quit playing the game altogether since the Onegu kill and all he did was keep spamming how confirmed he was. And besides I really wanted to lynch him so the NK felt to me like "nope, wrong again bro" and I just wanted to bite my own ass at that point.
so with the knoledge in hand that scum had been unpredictable with thier nks this game and also that a no nk was objectively the perfect choice, why did you out the best move so casually?
After you say it, everyone's in agreement, its clearly optimal, if scum were going to take a shot before what you said, they most certainly weren't after.
Did you not even consider the negative impact nonchalantly guiding a clearly erratic shooter would have? Your reads aren't just bad this game Vivax, your not at all concerned about the negative effects of your overall play, like your bitching after the yam flip.
That yam flip really killed a lot of my motivation to play this game, he had two fucking days. It's a riddle to me why people actually sign up sometimes.
you never should do this at town, it contributes to a gloom and doom outlook on the game that only benefits scum, its also an excuse for future shitty play which is exactly what scum love to cultivate.
Your point about the shot doesn't matter, I'm just good enough to know the best play for scum in that situation, cause he has 2 guys who already agree with him. Why I think about this? Cause I think from town point of view. I know I'm the mislynch, I know that the last mafia just says the same stuff as the other two townies.
Easy decision for mafia: Don't shoot anyone, keep 2 allies and a mislynch.
Your gloom and doom point is irrelevant cause I play the game without many excuses really. I was just telling you how I felt. How do you feel after pushing a lynch on the wrong guy?
On November 07 2015 07:36 Vivax wrote: Your point about the shot doesn't matter, I'm just good enough to know the best play for scum in that situation, cause he has 2 guys who already agree with him. Why I think about this? Cause I think from town point of view. I know I'm the mislynch, I know that the last mafia just says the same stuff as the other two townies.
Easy decision for mafia: Don't shoot anyone, keep 2 allies and a mislynch.
Your gloom and doom point is irrelevant cause I play the game without many excuses really. I was just telling you how I felt. How do you feel after pushing a lynch on the wrong guy?
I dont talk about how mediocre I'm going to be after/because of/a mislynch.
also you dont exactly have a bunch of idiots here with you, we all have been pretty reasonable this game but none of us were quite as on your page right away about the nk, but clearly you had thought it through, so why didnt you even consider that maf was going to take a shot?
Mafia have done ludicrous work with the nk this game, I would have never expected rayn or ritoky to die and neither did you, so was it not possible mafia WAS going to make things easier for us by making an nk?
The fact that you didnt even consider that a possibility when you posted is my point / : no matter how unlikely it was, you may have been the one to put us into a slightly worse situation than we already were in if your town.
basically it doesn't matter how low a possibility there was for maf to shoot, good townie players care about that kind of thing, whereas you clearly didn't, if you don't get it, I don't blame you, hard to have that townie mindset of "every bit counts" when your not town : P
Just to let you know, I'm not sure what my activity can be like tomorrow so I'm trying to get through the rest of the game tonight and post my final thoughts.
On November 07 2015 06:32 Blazinghand wrote: Haha, I think we got it basically covered. Vivax is putting in the token effort, and I applaud him for that. I'm even around to chat with or listen to him, since you know, that's just what you DO, but I'm feeling pretty good about things. I'm actually really happy with how this game has turned out, since TL Mafia has had a lot of rage, inactivity, etc recently. Although there was definitely some of both here, there was a solid core of people working to figure out the game and we did it without the help of blue roles or any of that. Good player list helped there.
I agree with this though, I'm confident that it's Vivax here.
N2 after the yamato lynch is really when people started to say the Onegu/GB/Hopeless team. I think it was pretty clear that town sentiment was decided on it, but in particular me, gumshoe, and BH were big supporters of the "lynch those three" camp that was quickly forming. + Show Spoiler +
On October 27 2015 08:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: Okay to be real the only reason i think Xatalos is town is because he has like 2390478 pages of filter. His filter is shit though.
that's pretty much my town read on him + he had some similar thoughts to me on day 1. but the constant rage over non-issues and then that post you made about him being all aboard you and suddenly open to a wealth of options without talking about it much plus him not doing shennanies has cast some doubt on him for me.
Just going off filter length, Xatalos has 28 pages of filter in this game so far, and his longest mafia filter is 15 pages (he did get up to 38 after 7 days as an SK-type thing but that's pretty different). Honestly that's pretty convincing just on it's own for me. Plus, he's one of the people most interested in and trying to figure out the game in my opinion (N1 he was discussing that the whole time and really putting his thoughts in the thread, I thought it was very town). I think there's almost no way Xatalos is mafia this game, despite the fact that I think he's been wrong.
I would be very very surprised if the mafia team isn't exactly GB + Onegu + Hopeless. That's both by PoE and by scumminess in thread. My list looks like:
ritoky gumshoe Xatalos BH (almost certainly town)
rayn Vivax (very likely town)
Hopeless Onegu GB (mafia)
The gap between the top two groups is much much smaller than the gap to the bottom group
I really liked some of the stuff that BH posted near the end of deadline (good thoughts about GB and yamato, and his analysis makes it clear that he's actively trying to solve the game with a townie thought process). In addition, his shennanies make it very hard to put him on a team with either GB or Onegu, and I don't think there's any way both of them can be town.
Both rayn and Vivax can basically only be mafia if GB isn't, which I think is highly unlikely of course. The fact that rayn came back after leaving and pushed GB with good points is very townie, in addition to the fact that I really liked his snarky comments around the lynch and his frustration seems genuine (at Xatalos/Slam). And he's been active in figuring out the game since he came back.
The only thing I don't like about Vivax is the fact that his read on me doesn't seem to have evolved at all since D1, even though I think I've been playing way differently (he still thinks I have low thread interaction? my posting has not been "mechanical" at all today, why is he confused by my insistence on GB). But he's also been posting a lot of townie thoughts and has been active in figuring stuff out, so he's still probably town.
By the way, I don't think not shenannying to GB is a sign of mafia at all. I think my logic was correct that flipping two players at the same time was a bad idea here, and the players who could have switched didn't have a lot of time to think about it and make a decision anyway, if they were even in the thread at the time.
So: GlowingBear + Onegu + Hopeless
I'll probably post more about all of these this phase (particularly Onegu because I haven't said a lot about him so far).
On October 27 2015 23:22 gumshoe wrote: I just dont think that a scum rayn in a good position would forfeit thread control and be a huge dick to people THAT HES NOT ACTUALLY MAD AT IF HES SCUM. Basically I dont think a) that rayn is that kind of a cock(and i dont mean that big, cause he can be massive just not that kind, as hes in hes not the sort of player who prefers to win as scum by pretending to be a jerk) and b) that the outburst was his best move at the time.
But I could definitely be wrong / :
I def wouldnt lynch rayn before gb onegu hopeless though.
On October 28 2015 02:31 Blazinghand wrote: Ah, I'm gonna be pretty tied up for the next 24 hours or so with a really extravagant dinner, I'll sit down and lay out some reads before EoN though. I'm definitely in the running for getting shot so I'll make sure to get my ideas out. Other than what I've already been saying, "we should probably lynch GB, 1Gu, and H1" and "rayn is town, despite his amazing uselessness," I'll do some research and lay out some reasons and new reads.
At the same time, Vivax says nothing in support of this plan and instead says:
On October 28 2015 02:12 Vivax wrote: I went a bit over marv's filter and I say it's tinfoil time:
Chrom ritoky rayn mafia gogogo
So, I think this is very important: it's not necessarily true that mafia wouldn't bus in this position. It's very possible that mafia would see the thread sentiment forming and choose to just push that wagon and win off of cred in final three (meaning that me/gumshoe/BH is mafia). However, I don't believe that this is the case, and I'll talk about why a bit later (it has to do with Hopeless' vote). I think that I can indisputably show that, if gumshoe/BH were mafia, that they were fully bussing their whole team from this point on by strongly urging everyone to "stay the course" and lynch "the three".
Vivax also posts this at the end of the night:
On October 28 2015 06:28 Vivax wrote: OK I'm an idiot GB is 100 % mafia I think.
On October 28 2015 07:08 Vivax wrote: ##Vote GB
I would like say. see you in 48 h but I'll likely post anyway
Which is at a very convenient time given that Onegu is just about to come under some serious pressure. (You can also note that Vivax had no reaction to the rayn nk, contrasting to the surprised reactions of BH and gumshoe).
In the first page of D3:
On October 28 2015 07:32 Blazinghand wrote: for now, though:
##vote: onegu
On October 28 2015 07:56 gumshoe wrote: voting Onegu is perfectly fine. Earlier I was thinking kill Gb today, cause scum would shoot confirmed townies till lylo, and if our lynch menu was preset, it would be best to get the sketchy one out of the way first while there are still active townies around to disect it, but It's best if we dont waste our mislynch right now if scum insist on shooting weird ass targets, and between gb, hope and onegu gb is most likely to flip green so yeah.
On October 28 2015 07:56 Xatalos wrote: What... the.... fuck?
I Know 0_0 its hard not to overthink this.
I think the onegu, gb, hopeless train was pretty set last night. If scum liked that lineup, they wouldnt have done anything to rock the boat is my guess.
This shot makes me think scum wanted us to read into it and alter course? maybe? Unless the reasoning was the trolly one I mentioned earlier XD
Ironically I feel a bit better about the direction town is taking, so barring something crazy, my vote is safe where it is.
Yeah so like there's two theories here.
Theory 1. The H1 1G GB wagon train was running strong. Scum looks at this and is like "this a great train. Let's let it run" and shoot rayn. Probably rayn rather than someone else who's not a leader cause a silent rayn is a significantly more pleasant rayn.
Theory 2. The H1 1G GB wagon train is running strong, and cannot be stopped no matter what. Scum figure their only chance is to confuse us by acting like they like the train and shooting someone irrelevant. They shoot rayn since, obviously, a silent rayn is an infinitely more pleasant rayn.
I think our best strategy is to assume that Theory 2 is correct and push forward with lynches on those guys today. I feel confident in my reads, and my VCA supports that as a possibility, especially 1Gu. If it turns out we're wrong on this, we can revisit things, since we have one more mislynch of breathing room. I don't think the right response here is to undo all our scumreads.
I think this provides more evidence that BH and gumshoe, if mafia, fully planned on bussing Onegu D3 (and then bussing Hopeless soon after).
BH and gumshoe also post stuff like this throughout the day:
On October 28 2015 15:12 gumshoe wrote: Basically theres no lynch I can propose that can clear your name like yams would, and theres no argument (that I havent already brought up) that would sway the people who want your head. I know it sucks to be the patzi but at this point your a liability to town ) :
If you can sway them to lynch onegu or hopeless or convince them why your town, by all means do that, but at this point I cant do that for you and I'm not going to be arguing with chrom and ritoky for the next 3 days when it is still possible that you could be mafia and im just blind.
On October 30 2015 04:21 Xatalos wrote: Currently GB is getting lynched... Can't really convince myself to push Onegu over GB. In any case, both probably need to be lynched. I can even move my vote to GB if there's some demand/reasoning for that order?
Eh, i'm in the same boat. Either is fine, we need to lynch both of them anyways
I have a hard time thinking that BH and gumshoe could even post that they basically don't care between a mafia and a town (as mafia should clearly have a strong preference between the town and the mafia, and pushing nothing is totally against the mafia agenda), but I GUESS you could argue that they're simply resigned to bussing their whole team at this point.
Here's the problem with that, and why BH and gumshoe bussing all of their partners doesn't make sense: Hopeless comes in and votes GB over Onegu. IF the mafia plan was to just bus, why wouldn't Hopeless vote Onegu with his mafia partner and get some serious town cred (maybe even escape a lynch)? The votes at the time were 3-3 with Onegu and ritoky still probable votes onto GB. This means that not only is Hopeless' vote not needed to ensure a mislynch on GB, but also that in the event that Onegu gets lynched anyway, he would look much better on Onegu. If mafia are just bussing the whole day and pushing Onegu, there is absolutely no reason for Hopeless to vote GB here. The only possible reason is if mafia are trying to save Onegu, lynch GB, and derail the "GB/Onegu/Hopeless" train that was going strong-- this means Vivax.
Now, I think this point might be the scummiest thing that gumshoe has done this game. I had a few doubts reading it at first:
On October 30 2015 01:12 gumshoe wrote: ##Vote gb
I dont like the tone of his last posts / : the logic hes proposing is just so bad, paticularly bad considering hes one of the first to jump on your dick if you use "wifom'. I'm not sure a townie wouldn't realize how unconvincing they are with arguments like his.
Posted when the votes are 3 Onegu - 2 GB with Onegu, Hopeless, ritoky still to vote. This makes it look like a secure GB mislynch if everyone votes as planned (6 - 3). I thought this was a strange justification considering gumshoe's generally stronger read on Onegu than GB, who he's gone back and forth on. He then switches back to Onegu:
On October 30 2015 05:17 gumshoe wrote: ##unvote
##vote onegu
we need to lynch onegu today, I think ritoky is town but if hes insistent on 1gu bieng town and xata bieng scum and pixies bieng real then we might very lose someone sensible tonight and have trouble killing onegu in the future. Thats not even considering gb flips town T_T in which case ritoky might somehow use that as fuel for his silly reads.
Hopeless, if your here vote 1gu, he should be clear scum from your pov.
Posted when the votes were 5 GB - 3 Onegu with Onegu off the wagons, so once the GB lynch was looking pretty secure. This has some obvious scum motivation.
However, there are several reasons why I don't believe this is the case with gumshoe. First has to do with this Hopeless vote post.
On October 30 2015 01:29 Hopeless1der wrote: ##unvote ##Vote: GlowingBear
I dont like the tone of his last posts / : the logic hes proposing is just so bad, paticularly bad considering hes one of the first to jump on your dick if you use "wifom'. I'm not sure a townie wouldn't realize how unconvincing they are with arguments like his.
Agree with this, and onegu doesnt seem as bad as GB after reading through their filters. GB is constantly throwing around "but what about this scummy thing thats just like me", seems like trying to deflect from himself.
This post does offer an explanation for why (if gumshoe is mafia) that Hopeless wouldn't vote Onegu (maybe they thought they could save GB here). However, I really don't think that mafia would literally QUOTE their partner's post and blatantly sheep it onto the mislynch. + Show Spoiler +
On October 30 2015 05:16 Blazinghand wrote: i'm pretty sure we're just arguing about which of two scum to lynch first so i can't really bring myself to care about this argument, but ritoky I will reread onegu since you insist, and if I were in your position I'd want "sure" people to reread the stuff about the guy I'm TRing. I gotta grab dinner real quick but I'll have an answer for you at least half an hour before deadline
you should care, if gb flips town for some dumb reason, then you me or xata die, well have 3 scum plus ritoky vs 3 town and onegu might not get lynched till lylo or something equally disturbing.
On October 30 2015 05:18 ritoky wrote: stray voting is a 50/50 game tbh. that's a coinflip argument at best. also idk what you're talking about not looking for scum. outside of this phase (where i believe all of 1gu's friends are dead in) he has done more scum hunting than i have ever seen in a game lol. so uhhhh....you're wrong. slam comment is interesting point, but maybe he just has a god read on slam like me.
1: Everything your saying is wifom, 1gu mighta killed rayn to sway townies his way, your are literally the living proof that this is a possibility
2: Whereas the nightkill is all wifom, 1gu's votes are facts. By wasting them on hopeless if hes town he is effectively sacrificing his ability to influence the vote. If the vote is between scum and town, and scum survive then the townie who burned his vote has effectively contributed to another townies mislynch.
3: This works as well vice versa for a scummer trying to save his teamates, but what if 1gu's teamates were never at risk?
4: 1gus day 2 behavior is only optimal if a scummer was not in danger and 1gu is scum, if 1gu is town, he does not actually know if his vote will make a diffrence or not, but if 1gu is scum, he DOES know that the best move is to steer clear of the lynch, so as to avoid fall out from it. Basically avoiding a vote is a pr move, you know who cares about pr? Scum / : the end
On October 30 2015 06:14 ritoky wrote: how yolo do i feel?
I was wrong yesterday ) : so today's choice is yours, but TRY to make sense of what hopeless is doing is hes scum, it doesn't unless hes trying to protect 1gu / : maybe it doesnt matter and 1gu and gb are both scum, but based of hopeless's actions we should definitely be voting onegu.
On October 30 2015 06:16 ritoky wrote: i think there is no way it is a team of those 3. there's always a sneakster mafia.
onegu/hopeless/x most likely if onegu
gb/x/x most likely if gb.
there's gotta be at least 2 scum in there though. who's scum if it's not AT LEAST 2 of those 3?
from ritokys perspective, it would have to be xata vivax,
cmon ritoky, why isnt hopeless voting onegu? If hopeless is the only scum between them, why not look more consistent and vote for the guy whose trying to kill you instead of doubling back on a guy you were null at best on, and town read at several points in the game? If hopeless is scum with gb, why vote him when he can just vote for onegu? the guy trying to kill him? In fact, why draw attention to himself with such a shitty vote for no reason?(might have resulted in his own lynch)? The only way hopeless DOESNT vote for onegu, and compromises himself in such a fashion is to protect his scum buddy, who has been bussing hopeless all this time to create some distance
If hopeless is town, then hope is actually lost, and hes also insane for not voting onegu ) : cmon ritoky, yah got dis
More importantly, these posts just do not make any sense if gumshoe is mafia. We're considering this in the world that gumshoe switches back to Onegu when the mislynch is mostly secure, hoping that nothing will change and his lynch goes off cleanly. But here, gumshoe is clearly pushing hard for the Onegu lynch. He literally encourages ritoky to switch as he considers it, which is the absolute LAST thing he wants as mafia here.
Essentially, gumshoe's moves here don't make sense from a mafia trying to carefully ensure that his partner doesn't get lynched (especially considering his push for the GB/Onegu/Hopeless team earlier). But, they also don't make any sense from a mafia bussing their partner, because why move from Onegu in the first place?
On October 30 2015 06:50 Vivax wrote: Xata get your vote on GB PLEASE
Then there's this infamous quote. Obviously, this makes sense from a mafia trying to save their partner after ritoky unexpectedly hammered.
It's very interesting to note that Vivax never gives a real read on Onegu (seriously go ctrl-F it). These are the closest things:
On October 30 2015 02:26 Vivax wrote: ...
Conclusion: Onegu really posts confused things. Or he's mafia with GB and tries to push us all to hopeless, cause otherwise I can't explain why he's so hung up on rayn's reads when he misses or disregards the fattest of them.
On October 30 2015 02:51 Vivax wrote: He probably saw two wagons, all on mafia, is too tired to play properly with his flu.
Dropped a vote on hopeless and went to bed thinking "one for the team".
These certainly don't sound like townreads. Why would Vivax be so against the Onegu lynch when he's reading Onegu as scummy too?
tl;dr
BH and gumshoe's play only makes sense as mafia if they were planning on hard bussing their whole team, because of how much they were pushing the "lynch GB/Onegu/Hopeless" train this day (and pushing Onegu in particular). In addition to the fact that a bus play like this is pretty unlikely in the first place, Hopeless would have been on Onegu for the town cred if he was being bussed anyway.
Vivax instead propses an alternate team of all town, and then suddenly goes hard on GB (the only town out of the three) without ever subscribing to the "lynch all three and win" train that everyone was pushing. He never gives a real read on Onegu, and tries to get people to switch to GB when Onegu's lynch is certain.
I think Vivax's play on D3 alone clearly fits much more with a mafia agenda than BH or gumshoe's.
That was almost certainly overkill but I gotta end this game with a bang.
I don't think I'll be posting comments on the rest of the game because I'm kind of out of time here, but I think things kind of went on autopilot from there on so not much to get from it.
The nature of these posts is that I haven't really talked about myself at all, so again if anyone has any questions/doubts about my play, I can clear them up (although it doesn't look like people do).
I think I've made a clear case for why BH and gumshoe are town. It not only has to do with the vote stuff from D3 and the association stuff I posted from other days, but also to do with their drive to figure out the game. Like, I think about that fact that gumshoe literally went into my GB case and attacked it piece by piece just to push his mislynch over my mislynch, and I really don't see how he can be mafia here.
I kinda want to scum BH atm cause he has been the least conclusive in this, mostly just pushy with some points and bad reasons to scumread me (like the NK being weird in some sort).
Gumshoe kept doing his thing of just talking down what I say as much as he can but in today's context it feels townish. I think he talks a lot of crap but it could be townie crap, especially cause it's a lot.
Chrom is probably the most considerate of them all given he actually reads gumshoe as an alternative.
Yeah, it could easily be BH, just based on lylo analysis. I'ma try to convince you if I find more but in case I don't manage I hope I'm right for a minimum of postgame cred x)
EPT
