EPTAnd I think the guy who profited a lot from that lynch was ritoky, even though his filter is really lackluster oterhwise.
[M][N] Mini Mafia: The (kinda) Vanilla Experience - Page 184
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Vivax
21686 Posts
And I think the guy who profited a lot from that lynch was ritoky, even though his filter is really lackluster oterhwise. | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On November 03 2015 02:26 Vivax wrote: It's useless that you talk to me like I need convincing given I know my alignment and know for a FACT that Onegu got bussed. And I think the guy who profited a lot from that lynch was ritoky, even though his filter is really lackluster oterhwise. not really talking to you : P more to the thread, also your smart enough to know that the whole "LOL I KNOW IM TOWN THEREFORE YOUR WRONG" argument is by far one of the weakest one can throw out -_- | ||
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Vivax
21686 Posts
On November 03 2015 02:29 gumshoe wrote: not really talking to you : P more to the thread, also your smart enough to know that the whole "LOL I KNOW IM TOWN THEREFORE YOUR WRONG" argument is by far one of the weakest one can throw out -_- I'm town therefore Onegu got bussed, that's my argument. You playing twister? | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On November 03 2015 02:35 Vivax wrote: I'm town therefore Onegu got bussed, that's my argument. You playing twister? Nobody has your role pm, therefore your argument has no weight. Your role on day 3 (convincing a townie to switch onto a mislynch) alone makes it likely your scum. try again please. | ||
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Vivax
21686 Posts
Your role on day 3 (convincing a townie to switch onto a mislynch) alone makes it likely your scum. By that logic Chrom should also be scum. Only difference is he switched to 1gu | ||
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Vivax
21686 Posts
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On November 03 2015 02:39 Vivax wrote: By that logic Chrom should also be scum. Only difference is he switched to 1gu there were 4 people on gb that day. 3 are likely scum one must be town, so I'm giving that award to chrom who you yourself put as 100 percent town(unless you wanna recall that read?), and I have done similarly throughout the game : P chroms gb push was genuine, whereas you OK I'm an idiot GB is 100 % mafia I think. basically came around to it on the day of -_- es the way he skipped all the drama to only talk about GB constantly and how his opinion on rayn never seemed to change like it did with me and GB still gives me the feeling he has a stick up his ass in a not townie way. This was where you were at before, using gb is town as a stepping stone to accusing someone else -_- I can assume you changed your mind based off the nk / : which of course you would because you caused the nk : P like how convenient a series of events is this, rayn is scum therefore gb is town- hmm cant really lynch rayn- rayn dies, showing how scummy gb is. btw willing to lynch hopeless tommorow? | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On November 03 2015 02:26 Vivax wrote: It's useless that you talk to me like I need convincing given I know my alignment and know for a FACT that Onegu got bussed. And I think the guy who profited a lot from that lynch was ritoky, even though his filter is really lackluster oterhwise. he did, but couldn't he have just stayed on GB, who was town, and moved us into LYLO right away? I guess no matter what there was some bad play from scum not pushing us into LYLO early either using the double lynch D2 or the wagons D3, but at the same time, it seems like ritoky who was very pro-lynching-gb would have looked fine if he stayed on gb, no? | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On November 03 2015 02:54 Blazinghand wrote: Like from my point of view although I was fine with the gb lynch, I spent a lot of effort trying to get people not to bail from the Onegu lynch and to get people to join it. Ritoky has a ton of "plausible deniability" about not being persuaded by the words of me and various other pro-lynch-onegu people. I guess what I'm getting at is, if Ritoky is scum, why take this leap and get onto Onegu? I get that it makes him look townie, but there's a REASON it makes him look townie, and that's that it's a bad move for scum to make. It's not just a bus, it's a bus that basically took Onegu from not being lynched to be ing lynched, if you think this is what happened. nah your not getting vivax's argument / : vivax knows hes town 100 percent, therefore it doesnt matter how bad a play scum made, because hes not scum, therefore there must be scum who bussed (that or chrom and hopeless are scum together, but I think vivax has flip flopped enough for one game so no reason to invite that) | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On November 03 2015 03:20 gumshoe wrote: nah your not getting vivax's argument / : vivax knows hes town 100 percent, therefore it doesnt matter how bad a play scum made, because hes not scum, therefore there must be scum who bussed (that or chrom and hopeless are scum together, but I think vivax has flip flopped enough for one game so no reason to invite that) I mean, I get that vivax thinks he's town, but I don't see why he's fixated on Ritoky in particular. Like "clearly scum must have bussed Onegu, therefore Ritoky did it" seems to be somewhat of a stretch. I will sit down with VCA as usual and crank out some analysis before EoN and read vivax in detail, since it looks like we need to identify another scum. In any case, despite this setback with GB I still think H1 is the right lynch tomorrow. The answers I'll leave will be more focused on who to go after post-H1-Lynch. Let me know if you have any requests. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
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Vivax
21686 Posts
On November 03 2015 02:54 Blazinghand wrote: Like from my point of view although I was fine with the gb lynch, I spent a lot of effort trying to get people not to bail from the Onegu lynch and to get people to join it. Ritoky has a ton of "plausible deniability" about not being persuaded by the words of me and various other pro-lynch-onegu people. I guess what I'm getting at is, if Ritoky is scum, why take this leap and get onto Onegu? I get that it makes him look townie, but there's a REASON it makes him look townie, and that's that it's a bad move for scum to make. It's not just a bus, it's a bus that basically took Onegu from not being lynched to be ing lynched, if you think this is what happened. It's clear when you compare what he does (= vote Onegu) with what he actually has been propagating previous to getting the advantage with that lynch (=everyone xcept 1gu mafia). On October 30 2015 05:35 ritoky wrote: so let's assume for a moment i am a GOD and completely right about onegu town and gb mafia. that means we have a very even wagon between a town and a mafia. hopeless (resident lurker) comes into the thread, says some blah blah blah, and votes on the mafia in a town vs mafia situation. this almost always confirms hopeless......which would mean 2 mafia are outside the PoE if GB is mafia and onegu is town... is that a world i want to believe in....ugh, fuck you brain for thinking. On October 30 2015 05:37 ritoky wrote: because i think 1gu wouldn't kill people he enjoys playing with unless forced to, and i also don't think he kills some1 in support of him who is not being universally TR. you can think it's shit, but won't change my mind. On October 30 2015 06:16 ritoky wrote: i think there is no way it is a team of those 3. there's always a sneakster mafia. onegu/hopeless/x most likely if onegu gb/x/x most likely if gb. Then he votes Onegu full out yolo mode against all his opinions. From a point of view of a h1/1gu/ritoky team they're obviously going to give the burden of carrying the game to ritoky, or he's going to take it. For that he needs a bag of cred he gets with his town hero play. | ||
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Vivax
21686 Posts
Hopefully it gives us one extra day to figure this out. | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
Why I am assuming Hopeless is mafia Hopeless is not playing this game at all, voted on the town in a town-mafia wagon on D3, does not have a particularly townie filter, and, due to the fact that he is not playing the game, will lose the game for town in LYLO/final three by not knowing who to vote. I think if Hopeless is town, town has lost this game already because there is no way Hopeless does not get lynched at all this game AND finds the last mafia in final three. In addition, from my perspective if Hopeless was town, that means that at least one mafia was on Onegu D3 (since me and Vivax are the only other people on the GB wagon). If one mafia was on Onegu, then why would Vivax push GB so hard if they were bussing? That leads me to believe that, in a world where Hopeless is town, that TWO mafia were probably on Onegu. I don't see any way that this is possible because I don't think that BH or gumshoe can be mafia. So, for a lot of reasons, Hopeless has to be the lynch tomorrow. In the rest of this post, I'm assuming that Hopeless is mafia. Vote Count Stuff On October 30 2015 07:02 Rels wrote: Day 3 Final Vote Count Onegu (5): Xatalos, Blazinghand, GlowingBear, gumshoe, ritoky GlowingBear (4): Vivax, Chromatically, Hopeless1der, Onegu So, assuming that Hopeless is mafia, there are two options for the D3 votes: bus or no bus. If the last mafia was on GB, then it's Vivax (or me). I think it's pretty unlikely that the last mafia was on Onegu. 4-3 LYLO is an extremely tough prospect (if even one town is wrong, the game is over), and I have to think that mafia would want to put us there if at all possible. I explained earlier that I think everyone on the Onegu wagon had decent enough reason to switch over to GB (BH was saying that both were mafia, gumshoe was voting GB earlier, ritoky was on GB hard), but they didn't switch. Mafia could have put us in 4-3 LYLO with minimal suspicion on themselves, but they chose not to for some reason? Plus, everyone on that wagon was being read as strongly town already, so there was no need to bus for town cred. But, in the case the last mafia was on Onegu, who is the most likely bus? Consider that if Hopeless is mafia, he came in and threw a vote down on the town wagon. If mafia was planning to bus D3, they would have told Hopeless to vote Onegu and get cred from it. The fact that Hopeless didn't do this means that either a) Hopeless is paying literally 0 attention to scum qt (possible I guess) or b) the bus on Onegu was completely unplanned. The only person who's vote was unplanned was, of course, ritoky. In addition, BH and gumshoe were going after Onegu for a while before D3. I have an extremely hard time believing that they were doing some sort of crazy long-term bus play on their whole team. So IF mafia was on Onegu, I think it has to be ritoky. I don't think that it's totally unreasonable that ritoky busses Onegu. He knows Onegu is going down at some point, so he wants to ride the game out on town cred. Maybe they thought that 4-3 LYLO wouldn't be that bad for town since Onegu and Hopeless were probably getting lynched next regardless, and ritoky just wanted the most town cred for final three. That's the tinfoil scenario I'm entertaining now, but I don't see it as particularly likely. Straight reads BH: I think BH is never mafia in this game. He's been legitimately going after Onegu and Hopeless the whole game. D1 shenannies onto Onegu were actually a real possibility, he pushed Onegu D2, he planned shenannies onto Hopeless D2, pushed the lynch through on D3. He even said that there were two scum up for lynch in Onegu and GB, but chose to push Onegu and stay on him the whole time. It's possible the shennanies were all not going to happen and Onegu was a planned bus and everything, but I think it's extremely unlikely. Plus, he's posting a lot of sensible analysis and scumhunting. He's been on the exact same page as me for most of the game (he says exactly what I'm thinking a lot). gumshoe: I also don't think there's any way gumshoe is mafia. He's been super active, posting lots of analysis, pushing his reads (which he feels strongly about). Right after yamato was lynched, he started pushing Onegu and Hopeless and hasn't stopped. He's been actively working against the GB lynch, which I see absolutely no reason for mafia to do (they could say they don't support it, but going that in depth on a defense is totally unnecessary). He voted Onegu early on in D3, switched to GB a bit, but then chose to switch back to Onegu. Why do this at all if you're mafia? As mafia, he would have either chose to bus Onegu and stuck there (and told Hopeless to vote there too), or to act really uncertain about the lynch and have his vote land on GB. I don't see any reason for mafia gumshoe to flop around like he did, before bussing his partner. In addition, he's way more active than his previous mafia games. ritoky: ritoky I think is the most viable alternative to Vivax as mafia, mostly because I think he's the only mildly realistic bus on Onegu. However, I think his play has been town overall. He's been posting his thought process a lot and it seems like town thinking about the game, he's had a relaxed, town tone the whole game, and he's been very interested in finding mafia. On D3, he ends up hard defending Onegu, and I feel like mafia wouldn't hard defend Onegu as much as he did (he comments multiple times on it, so he would look terrible when Onegu flips) when they would be able to see that Onegu is going down at some point this game. Then, he yolo switches onto Onegu, which could theoretically be a bus so he can ride the game out on town cred as explained above. However, I think the thought process for his switch, shown in his posts before he switches, makes sense from a town perspective. In addition, he switched to Onegu D1 with BH, which seems like a super unnecessary risk to take as mafia because I think the D1 shenannies had a decent chance to actually happen. He was tinfoiling a lot earlier about who is mafia with GB, which just seems weird to do when you know GB is town. In Onegu's filter, he pushes ritoky a mild amount, disagreed with my read on him, and blatantly says things like "ritoky moving to Onegu D1 should not get him a townread", which makes me feel like they are not as likely of partners. This could just be wrong and Onegu was calling out his partner a lot (he never pushed to lynch ritoky), but I feel like it isn't. If his team is ritoky/Hopeless, that would mean that he was calling out his whole team for a while which I just feel like is unlikely. The night actions are mildly incriminating for ritoky (rayn was suspecting ritoky for a while and Xatalos was the most convinced that ritoky could be mafia), but that could just be WIFOM. Overall, I think it's possible that ritoky is the last mafia, but pretty unlikely. I think he's the only one that could have bussed Onegu in my opinion, but I don't see any reason to believe that Onegu was a bus. I think ritoky has been pretty town this whole game in his play and willingness to figure out the game. Vivax: Vivax is definitely the most likely mafia at this point. The biggest point against him is the association with Onegu. He's made very little comment on Onegu/Hopeless, and certainly hasn't pushed them for lynch. On D3, when Onegu is up for lynch, Vivax never gives a real read on him despite the fact that he's a main wagon. He ends up on the GB (town) wagon, and he is pretty strongly pushing it (told Xatalos to get on the GB wagon) despite the fact that he doesn't have a townread on Onegu (in fact he says that "Onegu isn't a bad lynch"). Onegu gives literally no read on Vivax in his entire filter. He just says that he'll "trust yamato's read" early on. I thought his reasons for scumreading gumshoe didn't make much sense and were based on essentially one post. His read progression on GB was a little strange. N1 he has a huge scumread on GB, but when D2 rolls around he downgrades it to kind of a mild suspicion because of something BH posted, and switches to yamato. On D3 he says GB is 100% mafia for meta reasons, which I would think he should have already seen earlier? This could mean that Vivax, as mafia, doesn't care enough about the lynch between two towns (yamato/GB) to fight the lynch on D2, but pushes the GB lynch when Onegu (mafia) is up as the wagon. I also didn't like his read progression on me. He accused me early in D1 (which I think was fair), but when my play picked up N1 and D2 his read didn't change and he still said that I had low thread interaction despite the fact that I had been discussing with a lot of people (maybe I'm being biased here?). I also thought it was weird that he was "freaked out" by my persistence on GB over yamato when it should have been clear why. He could have just been trying to make me look worse and keep me as a mislynch. A lot of it is also PoE. I think that everyone else has posted a lot of town thought processes, and Vivax hasn't done that as much for me. Some points in favor of him being town: - It seems a little weird for mafia to really try and save Onegu when he was going to be lynched at some point. - He answered the question I asked to Onegu, which I feel like mafia wouldn't do because it would feel like too much association to them? - I like that he picked ritoky as his person to push, because I would be having the same thought in his position as town. However, I think he has done more sketchy things than anyone else in the game and I would bet on him being the last mafia at this point. Overall: I think BH and gumshoe are very town, both from play and from the fact that they are highly unlikely to be mafia with Onegu. I think Hopeless needs to be lynched next, he should be mafia. I don't think that town can win if Hopeless is town. I think ritoky has played townier than Vivax this game, so I think Vivax is most likely the last mafia. The fact that Vivax tried to save Onegu seems weird to me, so I'm paranoid that ritoky decided to go full yolo and bus Onegu unplanned, but I don't think there's a good reason to believe that Onegu was bussed instead of mafia simply voting on GB. Right now, I think I'm at 90% Hopeless + Vivax and 10% Hopeless + ritoky. I'm definitely not done evaluating, though, and the good news is we should have a lot of time to figure it out. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
Day 1 Alakaslam (8): raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Hopeless1der, yamato77, Chromatically, Vivax, gumshoe, Blazinghandraynpelikoneet (3): Alakaslam, GlowingBear, Onegu Onegu (2): ritoky, Xatalos Day 2 yamato77 (4): gumshoe, Xatalos, Hopeless1der, Vivax, GlowingBear (3): Chromatically, ritoky, Blazinghand raynpelikoneet (1): GlowingBear Xatalos (1): raynpelikoneet Hopeless1der (1): Onegu Day 3 Onegu (5): Xatalos, Blazinghand, GlowingBear, gumshoe, ritokyGlowingBear (4): Vivax, Chromatically, Hopeless1der, Onegu Day 4 GlowingBear (6): Blazinghand, Hopeless1der, Vivax, Chromatically, gumshoe, ritokyVivax (1): GlowingBear So, we have new flips and new information. Day 4 was a unanimous lynch and tells us little, so we’ll look at the earlier lynches: First off, the Day 3 wagons were scum and town. People who were on the Onegu wagon are more likely pretty much automatically to be twon; people on the GB wagon are more likely to be scum. Of course, there’s a chance of scum bussing in a situation like this, but they only needed one more to get to LYLO. Vivax, Chrom, and H1 are the three unflipped players who were voting GB EoD. We’re already planning to lynch H1 first, so we’ll ignore him and assume he’s scum. Chrom’s thoughts on Onegu: On October 30 2015 06:45 Chromatically wrote: W/E I guess it doesn't really matter since I'm pretty sure they're both mafia, it's just annoying since people haven't been convinced on GB for 2 days now. If Onegu somehow flips town though I'll be upset. Vivax’ thoughts on Onegu: On October 30 2015 02:26 Vivax wrote: Rayn's last "bigger" case: + Show Spoiler + On October 27 2015 23:50 raynpelikoneet wrote: GlowingBear is definitely mafia. Just read this and the post i made about this earlier, here: and here... The fact is this has nothing to do with either: 1) re-evaluating a read, or 2) not having read the thread GlowingBear calls me town, then calls me mafia 20 hours later while calling me town there all the time between. Nowhere there does he make any attempt to re-evaluate anything, also i asked him multiple times if he has read the thread properly. He says "yes i have". This is not re-evaluating something (in contrary to for what example i did regarding my reads on ritoky / GB on D1), because he never shows any process of re-evaluation. Then, he just ends up saying the same bullshit Xatalos is pushing. Now idk, maybe he expected Slam to get lynched and didn't want to be on a mislynch wagon, or maybe he expected Xatalos to be able to lynch me which would be a much better for mafia than Slam lynched. idk. But still, the fact is he ended up voting for his townread over someone who he "can't get a read on" (=null). That, is a fact, and he just made up reasons for the read, as shown above. Hopeless is another scum since he just doesn't play anymore. He can also get lynched. Next thing is to read Onegu, and unless i come to the conclusion he is scum then the next thing is to read BH. Just because BH does not really take any stance on any lynch. He really does not, he goes onto his shennies which gives him outs left and right saying either "i was right", "i tried to lynch mafia", "i didn't want to lynch town", or if he hit mafia "i actually wanted to lynch that mafia". Shennies are bullshit and they don't even happen. Period. He is not trying to lynch anyone for reals. Why not include GB here: + Show Spoiler + On October 28 2015 12:21 Onegu wrote: Rayn scum reads Xata, and hopeless and then dies. Coincidence I think not. Anyway I am going to bed. We should lynch xata or hopeless today. Just a really derpy post, he thinks GB is town contrary to what rayn posted last. And wtf is a clout? + Show Spoiler + On October 30 2015 01:32 Onegu wrote: The main reason is because I am scum reading you two more. GB needs looked at also, but I feel multiple people scum read GB maybe he shoots rayn, but only rayn and myself were scum reading you. Rayn had the clout that I dont to actually lynch you. Then says he agreed with most of rayn's reads and later drops the vote on Hopeless over GB who is way more likely to be lynched. + Show Spoiler + On October 30 2015 01:42 Onegu wrote: Rayns reads were correct and that is why he was killed. A serious rayn is capable of putting a legit case on scum even if he is being scum read getting that person lynched. I wasnt surprised rayn was killed. I town read him hard. I agreed with most of his reads. In a world where I am scum this game I dont kill Rayn, I am not going to kill the only person that is town reading me this game. It would be suicide for me. Killing rayn takes pressure off of the people he was scum reading and lets them put pressure on me. They want this mislynch on me it gets them to lylo. Conclusion: Onegu really posts confused things. Or he's mafia with GB and tries to push us all to hopeless, cause otherwise I can't explain why he's so hung up on rayn's reads when he misses or disregards the fattest of them. It doesn’t look like either of these people had a really bad reason for not voting Onegu; they weren’t calling him confscum. On GB: Vivax seems eager to try to hold the wagon together on GB and starts to use a little allcaps when he realizes Onegu is going through: On October 30 2015 06:50 Vivax wrote: Xata get your vote on GB PLEASE And seems upset that the 1G lynch goes through over GB: On October 30 2015 06:59 Vivax wrote: BH hunting the epeen from Onegu lynch while saying GB claimed scum. priceless. Whereas Chrom: On October 30 2015 06:54 Chromatically wrote: Hey guys let's lynch GB now please, I can actually see Onegu flipping town Similarly tries to get people onto GB, but the effort seems much more half-hearted. At the same time, it doesn’t seem ANGRY, like Vivax seems. It seems… disappointed? Scared? Overall I think Chrom comes out of this looking better than Vivax. Not gonna analyze the D1 wagon; they were on the same slam wagon. On D2, Vivax votes Yam, who was town, whereas Chrom voted GB, who was also town, but a potential double-lynch target. Chrom being town and H1 being AFK WOULD explain why there was no swap for 2x lynch, but this is only weak evidence since it seems most people woultn’t go for this as scum. Overall, I think in terms of tone we see a big shift from Vivax as we transitioned from the early game, when we were struggling, to the late game, when we started doing well. D1 and D2 were definitely both shitfests. Both times, the two main wagons were town, and both times, after a bunch of lollygagging we lynched a townie. D3 was when we finally pulled together and got our shit in gear. I think you’ll notice a lot of the players who ended up being town (GB aside), and yourself if you’re town and reading this, started feeling a lot more confident around D3-d4. Things have pretty much fallen into place; we even are accounted for fine if one of GB/H1/1G flip town, which happened. In general, we took control of this game, which is good. Chromatically seems to have reacted to this by becoming more relaxed and maintaining a good activity level. Compared to Vivax, he has the same number of posts, but he has a 40% longer filter in terms of words; He’s not spamming, but he’s making lots of post. His tone also seems pretty happy with the game. He wasn’t upset afte rthe 1G lynch, the first scum lynch, Vivax is MAD: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/496215-mini-mafia-the-kinda-vanilla-experience?page=159#3167 Look at his posts around there.He’s upset after scum getting lynched, whereas everyone else is energetic and happy. As we’ve started to win this game, we’ve felt more at ease, but vivax has been less at ease. We have one lynch after H1. Use it on Vivax. TLDR lynch H1 then Viv | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
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Rels
France13467 Posts
Day 5 Trfel rang his friend to take her out for another date. He decided that tonight he wanted to really pull out all the stops and sweep her off her feet. Dinner and a stroll and maybe the night lotus event on the river? He couldn't see her refusing. "Hey Catrina," he said, "how's it going?" "I'm well," she replied, "how are you?" "Pretty golden," he said, "what are your plans looking like for tomorrow night?" "Well, for now," she started, "dodgy. I'm getting fucked in my writing class. Why do you ask?" "I wanted to know if you'd be interested in dinner, a stroll and the lotus show. You were talking about it at lunch sometime last week. I thought you might be interested in checking it out." Trfel for whatever reason, could feel her cringe at the other end of the line. "Yikes," she replied. "It's probably not going to do. I'd be lucky to get an hour out." "Maybe a quick stroll?" he suggested. "Maybe just enough for a study break, but not taking too much time." "I'm sorry but it's not going to work out tomorrow." "Fuck my life," he sighed after he hung up, "I really don't feel like doing my physics homework, so I guess it's another night in of playing Starcraft tomorrow. Again." ritoky, a Factory Worker (Vanilla Town) was nightkilled. Day 5 has begun and in 48h you will hand out the next pink slip! Whom will it be? Please remember to vote in the correct format so that we will not miss votes! Day 5 ends in at 22:00 GMT (+00:00). At that time, the player with the most votes will be lynched. | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
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Every read had some "but... then..." moment haha
