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WCS Predictor 2015 - Page 40
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fairyblisss
1 Post
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Die4Ever
United States17582 Posts
Biggest Winners   ForGG went up by 0.69%, going from 16.26% to 16.95%  Lilbow went up by 0.08%, going from 23.21% to 23.29%Biggest Losers FanTaSy went down by 0.36%, going from 90.54% to 90.18%  Dark went down by 0.15%, going from 37.58% to 37.43% HyuN went down by 0.11%, going from 15.83% to 15.72% sOs went down by 0.09%, going from 98.03% to 97.94% GuMiho went down by 0.03%, going from 6.75% to 6.71% TY went down by 0.02%, going from 1.2% to 1.18%Look forward to the preview for tonight's GSL group soon, and a full preview for the WCS quarterfinals tomorrow. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17582 Posts
Flash is currently at just 0.05% Blizzcon Chances and 875 WCS Points. Flash is the only player left in the GSL that would not be able to make it with a GSL win alone. He cannot make it without a 1st place in GSL and at least an 8th place in Dreamhack Stockholm, and even then that only puts him at 37.3%. 1st in GSL and 4th in Dreamhack puts him at 75.95%, 1st in GSL with a 2nd in Dreamhack puts him at 86.5%, and the double championship puts him at 100%. Gumiho is currently at 6.71% with 1925 WCS Points. If Gumiho loses here then he's down to 0%, and even a 4th place only puts him at 1.45%. 2nd place in GSL puts him at 43.32%, but a 1st place gives him 99.99%. If Gumiho gets 2nd in GSL and earns no points from Dreamhack that still leaves him at 41.53% with 2875 WCS Points. 2nd in GSL and even just 16th in Dreamhack shoots him up to 72.86%. 2nd in GSL and 4th in Dreamhack puts him at 98.49%. Let's not forget he can also make it with a 4th in GSL, but he needs at least a 4th in Dreamhack for that to happen putting him at 57.2%. 4th in GSL and 2nd in Dreamhack puts him at 76.93%, and 4th in GSL with a 1st in Dreamhack nearly secures him with a 99.46%. If he gets an 8th place in GSL then he needs to win Dreamhack to have any chance, but it'd put him up at 77.31%. WCS Predictor 2015 GSL Code S Season 3 Ro16 Group D PartinG, GuMiho, INnoVation, and Flash in in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16. GuMiho must win this match! This is the 2nd place Group of Death! PartinG is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 54.64% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. INnoVation is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 62.53% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose. GuMiho is at 6.71% Blizzcon Chances, with a 42.17% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 15.91%, or 0% if they lose. Flash is at 0.05% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.66% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.13%, or 0% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [Quarterfinals] + Classic vs Dear in in GSL Code S Season 3 quarterfinals. Dear must win this match! Classic is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 58.95% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. Dear is at 9.08% Blizzcon Chances, with a 41.05% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 21.73%, or 0.26% if they lose. Maru vs Rogue in in GSL Code S Season 3 quarterfinals. Maru has the #4 Headband. Maru is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 51.95% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. Rogue is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 48.05% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [GSL Winning Chances] + Dear and GuMiho must win this tournament! INnoVation has a 15.56% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. Classic has a 15.32% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Maru has a 14.97% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Zest has a 12.67% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. ByuL has a 11.08% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Rogue has a 10.33% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. Dear has a 8.32% chance to win----going from 9.08% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 0.82% if they don't. PartinG has a 4.63% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. GuMiho has a 4.12% chance to win----going from 6.71% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 2.7% if they don't. Flash has a 3.01% chance to win----going from 0.05% to 1.72% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [GSL Placements Table] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/bKIJUHM.png) | ||
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sharkie
Austria18281 Posts
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OtherWorld
France17333 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17582 Posts
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Road to Blizzcon Narrows Into WCS Quarterfinals Friday, Sep 11 6:20pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (Sim #4256) (This is a cross post of my article on Blizzard's WCS Website) If you didn't read my previous article, these stats are calculated by WCS Predictor, which simulates every match in every tournament that gives WCS Points millions of times. Blizzcon Chances are the chances to qualify in the top 16 for Blizzcon, as rated by WCS Predictor. Yesterday in WCS we had some big eliminations from the Road to Blizzcon. MarineLord falling from 4.84% Blizzcon Chances down to 0%, Snute from 8.22% down to 0%, and Jaedong from 7.84% down to 0%. This morning in GSL we also had Flash go from 0.05% down to 0%. With these eliminations we are down to just 27 players who could still possibly make Blizzcon, including those already secured. This is down from 37 players on Monday. Players at 100% - herO, Parting, Maru, Life, Hydra, Rain, Classic, ByuL, Dream, Innovation, Polt, and Zest. Players over 95% - Rogue and sOs. Players over 10% - Fantasy, Dark, Lilbow, ForGG, Gumiho, and Hyun. Players over 1% - Dear and TY. Players over 0% - Mana, Stats, Petraeus, GungFuBanda, and Zanster. WCS Movers and Shakers After some upsets and some fan favorites getting knocked out, our WCS Quarterfinals ends up with Zanster, GunGFuBanDa, Lilbow, Hydra, Polt, ForGG, Petraeus, and MaNa. Out of those players, only Lilbow and ForGG have the opportunity to make a big improvement on their Blizzcon Chances this weekend. Mana would need to win WCS and then get at least top 4 in Dreamhack Stockholm to be able to make Blizzcon. For Petraeus, GungFuBanda, and Zanster, a 2nd place in WCS means 0% Blizzcon Chances, and even taking home the trophy they would still be below 1%. Millenium Bros - Lilbow and ForGG ForGG and Lilbow are the ones really looking at qualifying for Blizzcon this weekend, and I know Millenium is excited about the possibility of having a player at Blizzcon for the first time. Lilbow has been the top foreigner hope ever since his 2nd place in WCS Season 2, where he lost to Hydra. Unfortunately he drew Hydra as his quarterfinals opponent here, and he needs to win for there to be much hope left. Many expected ForGG to be secured a spot for Blizzcon by now with how strong he was looking at the end of 2014. In WCS Season 1 he was on a strong run that got stopped short by the eventual champion, Polt, in the quarterfinals with a close 3-2 score. Now they're paired up again in the quarterfinals for a revenge match with ForGG's Blizzcon dreams on the line. The Millenium Bros can actually both qualify together, if they both make top 4 here and do well at Dreamhack, or if they make the finals. To get nearly secured (over 95%), ForGG would need to either win WCS; get 2nd place in both WCS and Dreamhack; or get 4th in WCS and win Dreamhack. For Lilbow, he has an extra 100 WCS Points, he needs to either win WCS; get 2nd in WCS and 4th in Dreamhack; or get 4th in WCS and win Dreamhack. The players outside of WCS who can hurt Lilbow and ForGG the most are Dark, Gumiho, Hyun, and Fantasy. Especially Dark, who would put them both under 2% Blizzcon Chances if you assume Dark to qualify. This is huge in comparison to their next biggest threat, Gumiho, who would only bring them down to around 10.5% if you assume Gumiho qualifies. However the WCS championship is still enough to secure ForGG's or Lilbow's qualification. Global Finals - Round of 16 Shaping Up If Lilbow does qualify for Blizzcon, then his most likely first round matches in the Global Finals would be Life, herO, Parting, or Maru. ForGG's most likely first round Global Finals matches are Parting, Maru, and Life. For Polt, his most likely Global Finals matches are Hydra, Life, or Byul. Hydra's most likely Global Finals matches are Polt, Dream, and Zest. If Hydra loses his quarterfinals match to Lilbow, then Innovation replaces Zest as his third most likely matchup. Here are the top 10 most likely first round matches of the Global Finals so far. Keep in mind that a lot can still happen to shake these up. herO vs FanTaSy has a 33.87% chance for the first round. Life vs Zest has a 30.46% chance for the first round. Maru vs sOs has a 30.28% chance for the first round. PartinG vs sOs has a 29.57% chance for the first round. Dark vs herO has a 28.39% chance for the first round. Rain vs Dream has a 28.14% chance for the first round. PartinG vs Rogue has a 27.69% chance for the first round. Maru vs Rogue has a 20.56% chance for the first round. ByuL vs Dream has a 20.43% chance for the first round. Life vs Rogue has a 20.16% chance for the first round. Be sure to check the website for very frequent updates, the FAQ, and the fantasy league WCS Wars! WCS Predictor 2015 Also check out my post on Blizzard's own WCS website! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ||
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OtherWorld
France17333 Posts
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sharkie
Austria18281 Posts
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Ej_
47656 Posts
On September 12 2015 05:41 OtherWorld wrote: Okay. Should I put my balls on the table and buy Lilbow or should I play it safe and buy Hydra? should buy Ejwoda IMHO | ||
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OtherWorld
France17333 Posts
You never know, I could suddenly find a use for 2000 WCS points d: | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17582 Posts
WCS Predictor 2015 WCS Premier Season 3 Playoffs Day 1  Zanster vs  GunGFuBanDa in in WCS Premier Season 3 quarterfinals. Zanster is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 51.53% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.02%, or 0% if they lose. GunGFuBanDa is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 48.47% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.05%, or 0% if they lose. Hydra vs Lilbow in in WCS Premier Season 3 quarterfinals. Lilbow must win this match! Hydra is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 51.7% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. Lilbow is at 21.65% Blizzcon Chances, with a 48.3% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 44.32%, or 0.46% if they lose. Polt vs ForGG in in WCS Premier Season 3 quarterfinals. ForGG must win this match! Polt is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 43.16% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. ForGG is at 17.59% Blizzcon Chances, with a 56.84% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 30.74%, or 0.28% if they lose.  MaNa vs  Petraeus in in WCS Premier Season 3 quarterfinals. MaNa must win this match! MaNa is at 0.66% Blizzcon Chances, with a 47.34% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 1.39%, or 0% if they lose. Petraeus is at 0.1% Blizzcon Chances, with a 52.66% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.2%, or 0% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [WCS Winning Chances] + ForGG must win this tournament! Hydra has a 23.94% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. ForGG has a 16.69% chance to win----going from 17.59% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 1.08% if they don't. Lilbow has a 15.77% chance to win----going from 21.65% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 6.98% if they don't. Polt has a 12.76% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Petraeus has a 10.63% chance to win----going from 0.1% to 0.99% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. MaNa has a 7.08% chance to win----going from 0.66% to 9.31% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Zanster has a 6.88% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.14% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. GunGFuBanDa has a 6.25% chance to win----going from 0.02% to 0.37% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [WCS Placements Table] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/iiWHdUY.png) | ||
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Ej_
47656 Posts
On September 12 2015 07:11 OtherWorld wrote: You never know, I could suddenly find a use for 2000 WCS points d: I bought myself and atm my team is #7 :D | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17582 Posts
Here are the changes from just today Biggest Winners Lilbow went up by 23.35%, going from 21.63% to 44.99% ForGG went up by 16.93%, going from 17.6% to 34.53% MaNa went up by 0.98%, going from 0.66% to 1.64%Biggest Losers Dark went down by 20.64%, going from 31.59% to 10.95% FanTaSy went down by 10.08%, going from 88.32% to 78.24% GuMiho went down by 4.09%, going from 16.84% to 12.75% sOs went down by 2.91%, going from 97.33% to 94.42% HyuN went down by 2.83%, going from 15.38% to 12.54% TY went down by 0.25%, going from 1.13% to 0.88% Dear went down by 0.18%, going from 8.81% to 8.63%+ Show Spoiler [More Losers] + Stats went down by 0.16%, going from 0.57% to 0.41% Petraeus went down by 0.11%, going from 0.11% to 0% GunGFuBanDa went down by 0.02%, going from 0.02% to 0% Rogue went down by 0.01%, going from 99.99% to 99.98% | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17582 Posts
Zanster vs Lilbow in in WCS Premier Season 3 semifinals. Lilbow must win this match! Zanster is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 27.58% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.06%, or 0% if they lose. Lilbow is at 44.95% Blizzcon Chances, with a 72.42% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 61.6%, or 1.23% if they lose. ForGG vs MaNa in in WCS Premier Season 3 semifinals. ForGG and MaNa must win this match! ForGG is at 34.53% Blizzcon Chances, with a 60.66% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 56.33%, or 0.91% if they lose. MaNa is at 1.65% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.34% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 4.18%, or 0% if they lose. WCS Winning Chances ForGG must win this tournament! Lilbow has a 38.14% chance to win----going from 44.95% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 11.01% if they don't. ForGG has a 33.45% chance to win----going from 34.53% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 1.62% if they don't. MaNa has a 17.88% chance to win----going from 1.65% to 9.2% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Zanster has a 10.53% chance to win----going from 0.02% to 0.15% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [WCS Placements Table] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/9MF8PmP.png) | ||
The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
Rogue is out? | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17582 Posts
On September 13 2015 04:26 The_Templar wrote: So if
Rogue is out? yea that's correct | ||
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The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
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[PkF] Wire
France24192 Posts
On September 13 2015 04:36 The_Templar wrote: Even though Lilbow/ForGG/sOs aren't scheduled to go to Dreamhack yet, that doesn't seem like a 1 in 5000 chance. Meh. Lilbow or ForGG have to WIN Dreamhack. That is a very slim chance. If in your scenario sOs goes to Dreamhack, how do you fancy either one's chances ?  | ||
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The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
On September 13 2015 04:38 [PkF] Wire wrote: Lilbow or ForGG have to WIN Dreamhack. That is a very slim chance. If in your scenario sOs goes to Dreamhack, how do you fancy either one's chances ? Not too badly. | ||
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[PkF] Wire
France24192 Posts
seriously ? I would rate sOs at 99-1 vs ForGG and 90-10 vs Lilbow in a bo3. | ||
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