[D] Mafia Theorycraft!

Foolishness attempts to define what a Normal Game is and argues that bla bla bla.

Hapahauli argues that bla bla bla
Players bla bla bla agrees with him
Players bla bla bla argues that bla bla bla
Discussion ends without consensus.

Blazinghand argues that bla bla bla
Players bla bla bla agrees with him
Players bla bla bla argues that bla bla bla
Discussion ends with consensus.

Ver argues that bla bla bla
Players bla bla bla agrees with him
Players bla bla bla argues that bla bla bla
Discussion ends without consensus.

The best way to play this game is looking through mindsets. It is the most precious lesson I learned from Iamperfection in my first game, and it needs to be your main instrument of hunting.
Mindsets can be simplified as these:

#Town mindest: Lynch scum
#Scum mindest: Don't get lynched

Whenever you read a post from someone, always evaluate from this POV: is this coming from a guy who is trying to get scum lynched and to solve the game? Is this coming from a guy who is running away or acting like a politician, not really interested in solving the game? Is this actually alignment indicative, or it can't be drawn any conclusions from this?

You've played probably more games as scum as I have until now. Try to remember how your mind did work. Try to see this kind of mindset you have on a player's gameplay.

Now, these mindsets will lead to certain kinds of behaviour. You'll see people talking "this is more like coming from town" or "this is more like coming from scum".

The great great problems is that people tend to focus on singular posts than overall gameplay. And overall gameplay is the strongest argument against a player. Because, yes, there are posts that are scummy or towny, but the fact is that any alignment can post any kind of post.

That said, I like to classify things.

Regarding gameplay analysis, there are three types of it:
(A)Overall gameplay
(B)Singular posts
(C)Associative

Regarding arguments for reads, there are these to consider:
(1)Objective reads
(2)Subjective reads

Inside these two categories, you'll find:
(1.1)Objective reads "lato sensu"
(1.2)Objective meta reads
(1.3)Objective vote count analysis
(2.1)Subjective reads "lato sensu"
(2.2)Subjective meta reads
(2.3)Subjective vote count analysis.

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ON BUILDING CASES

This requires a little explanation of what I call subjective reads and objective reads. It's actually simple: subjective reads are things that convinces YOU that someone is scum but it's hard to use it to convince others. Objective reads are what makes people objectively mafia, and are stronger arguments that probably will convince people.
So it all starts with subjective read. A gut feeling, a tell you have from a player. You think that player looks mafia-ish. It's time for you to check his filter.
Checking his filter, you will be looking for things that make this guy mafia. First, read this guy posts by trying to discover if it can come from both alignments. Does it looks like it can come from both alignments? Does it looks that there is no actual information in those posts? If the answer is yes for these two questions, you'll be facing null posts that you shouldn't spend time thinking about it.
Once you reach a post that looks informative, look from BOTH mindsets. It IS important because you WILL be biased, since you already think this guy is possible scum. Sometimes, when you talk to yourself "wait, ok, I believe this guy is mafia, but if he is town, does this post can come from a townie mindset?". You will be surprised of how many times you'll realise that it is more likely that it's coming from a townie rather than from a mafia.

Ok, now, supposedly you find some particular posts and interactions that makes this guy objectively mafia. Start to write this part of your case.
Now, evaluate this guy WHOLE gameplay. Evaluate it again through the mindsets. Is he trying to lynch or not to be lynched? Is he being under the radar? DOES THIS SEEM THAT THIS GUY IS TRYING TO SOLVE THE GAME?
If you see in the overall gameplay that this guy is constantly coming back on others posts, filter diving players, making cases and constantly reevaluating stuff, you will see a townie trying to correctly lynch.
If you see in the overall gameplay that this guy is FULL of null posts, not really trying to discover people's alignment by inquiring and having follow ups, if you see a guy pushing a player just to be aggressive, but not really trying to convince others to lynch this person, you're probably facing a scum.

These are the most important parts of a case.
After writing stuff, read what you are saying. Is that argument strong or weak? If weak, take it out of your case or at least put it in spoilers in the end of the case. People are stupid and they will focus on the weak parts. Mafia will also see an opportunity in the weak parts to debunk your whole case an call you stupid, and you will be ignored with that.

This is the way I build cases. Maybe other players disagree with the method. But there are three things that are important in any case, and you need to have in mind: be BRIEF, CLEAR AND OBJECTIVE. Write the IMPORTANT STUFF ONLY. People WILL IGNORE a big case. People WILL IGNORE difficult and prolyx writing. People WILL ignore cases that doesn't get directly to the point.

When writing arguments, considering quoting a few examples to illustrate what you're saying.
Formatting is VERY IMPORTANT to make your cases readable. Bold and center a title to show it's a case. Put quotations on spoilers so your post doesn't get cluttered. Consider bolding and coloring important stuff.

GO
DIRECTLY
TO
THE
POINT

CUT
OUT
WEAK
POINTS

That's playing optimally.

If you want a very thorough case, there are other kind of arguments you can use and that can be subjective or objective. They are "meta reads" and "vote count analysis", which I'm not very good at and I actually think are secondary. If you want more information on building meta cases or vote count analysis, let me know, I'll try to bring good examples so you can understand what I'm saying.

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ON TOWN AND SCUM PRIORITIES:

It's simple and it's in the sticky guide:

#TOWN: (1) Scum hunt (2) Establish your innocence (3) Gather information
#SCUM: (1) Survive (2) Confuse (3) Support bad reads and disorganise town

Your first priority as town is to find scum.
Check for scum traits on people. Always remember the mindset. What kind of behaviour does the mindset proposes? Find these guys.
Another way is to make Process of Elimination (PoE) by finding town. Check for town traits on people. Remember the mindset. What kind of behaviour does the mindset proposes?
If you can manage to say some people are definetely town and some people are probably scum, you'll be in a good spot. Merging these two abilities (correctly find scum and correctly find town) will lead you to a great gameplay.

Now, why establishing your innocence? Because you will help people with PoE and because you will be able to persuade other people into voting on who you think is scum. If people can town read you, they can trust that you're not trying to lead a mislynch.

Gathering informations is also extremely important and often overlooked. You can't analyse someone if you don't have enough information on them. Ask their reads, present hypothetical scenarios and ask their opinion, etc. The most you pressure them into playing, the more you can work with. A game with huge number of players with little posts is a lost game for town.

I am actually discussing which is more important with people right now: establishing innocence and pursuing scum.
The ones who believes establishing innocence is more important is that when you establish it, the PoE is made easier and you can properly lynch scum.
I think that's not good because ok, you can get a lot of people townread. Now, who will you lynch? You have a list of players to lynch and you work only with probability but you have no idea who is mafia actually.
Or, in the other hand, you established your innocence and you survived! YAY! But you mislynched in LYLO and the game is over.

What's the scum "counter-attack" for the guy who established his innocence? Kill him at night
What's the scum "counter-attack" for a guy who correctly lynched his partner? None.



Your first priority as scum is to survive. The only way scum wins the game is by winning LYLO. So, the game is actually a timeclock.
What will mafia do to survive?
They will try not to draw attention, they will try not to be responsible for mislynches, they will try to look like town by faking town traits, so people won't mislynch them. They have to survive.

Now, they also need to confuse town. Someone made a huge case on a townie. GREAT! Support that, get the guy mislynched and do not get responsibility for that.
Someone posted a very good and direct case on a partner. Agree with it and change subject. Spam the thread so people forget to read it. Bring up something very scummy from a town player. Confuse the guy who is townreading you.

Town is organising themselves! They are starting to get along instead of just uselessly pointing fingers on everyone. Disrupt the conversation and bring a scum trait on the guy, or try to get them to tunnel someone, even if it's you. There you have: town is again disorganised and pointing fingers everywhere.

You see, the different mindsets makes different kinds of behaviour. Mafia can't be extremely townie since they will survive at night. And if an unanimous townread keeps being alive without getting Finger of Suspicion on them... well... it's extremely suspicious .
We can get deeper in any of these topics. Just tell me where do you want to start and if you have any questions.