Newbie Mini Mafia LX - Page 62

On January 05 2015 10:44 The Shining wrote:
On one hand, I can see why Soultin thought it a bit hasty for HTS to jump into the us vs scum mentality. Not knowing HTS from a hole in the wall also helps to make it a bit more odd for me that she'd jump in and be willing to be associated as an "us" with LS, unless she is in fact VT and believes LS is, too.

On the other hand, Soultin has already let it go and is now moved on to Silver. How am I to know you're not just going to question every one of us in the hopes of a slip or something that gives away a role?

On January 05 2015 13:26 Silverarte wrote:
HTS I believe was my main subject in my previous comment, though Rsoultin, I see the Cheshire grin there. Having fun yet? Shining is right. You did switch to me awfully quick there.

On January 05 2015 15:04 Trfel wrote:

It's sad, but we still have to do a Day 1 lynch. It just doesn't make sense not to do it.

So far, all of the posts I have wanted to make are just white knighting. And at this point in the game, that just kills discussion. So I guess I'll just wait. Maybe if I come up with something useful to say, I can say it in an hour or so, but I'll see.

Feel free to pick this post apart, I don't mind.

On January 05 2015 16:57 ExO_ wrote:


I really hate this post. Coming up with not 1, but 2 excuses for inactivity immediately. Like you gotta be kidding me, you're too sick to post on your broken computer but you're going to "read and stuff". I don't buy this as helpful to town at all, but merely as a tactic to try to slip by day 1. You get my vote for now.

On January 05 2015 22:28 Trfel wrote:

Hi Gumdrop, nice to meet you.

It isn't realistic to figure out definitively (or anywhere near conclusively) who is scum and who is not using the first few pages, but you can still decide who you feel is leaning town and who is leaning scum. For example, right now, you are leaning scum for providing a single post with absolutely zero content. That is okay though, especially since this is a newbie game, and will be very easily forgiven if you do basically anything else. Give me a bit to respond to the thread so far, hopefully I can do a passable job to show how to post early in the game? (doubt it, I'm terrible at the start of the game haha)

On January 05 2015 23:22 -Celestial- wrote:
Hey guys. Trying to get my head around the theme because I've never actually watched 24, though I know about it. I know, I know, sorry.

Got my thesis submitted this morning, yay! So now I have time to actually do stuff. Although I'm not going to spend ALL my time in here because frankly I had no Christmas or New Year and my Birthday is next Monday so...yeah I have to make up for that. Going to watch all of Breaking Bad and Puella Magi Madoka Magica. :D But I'll still do whatever I can to help with the scumhunting in between trying to relax.


Anyway, as I understand it we need to decide on a lynch for Wednesday night, right? According to the counter anyway. Going to be tricky because lots of new players but of those few who HAVE played before...well actually I've been watching some of the recent mafia games over the holiday before I even signed up so I recognise some names. Hope that helps with my reading.



I'm not really familiar with most of the people here I've got some initial thoughts on other people's posts so far. I've read it all and there's just enough to make comments on everyone at this early point:

The Shining made some good points on both HtS and rsoultin. Not a lot to go on but I like his thinking and comments on both of them, its logical and nicely detailed. I'd tentatively start learning towards town on this guy based on that.

Half the Sky posted some fluff and moved onto questioning a couple of people in the last couple of posts. Some people posted some good things about scum reads but Trfel's point that she opened the other game exactly the same way (where she was town) has a lot of merit, I watched some of that game myself actually before signing up here and found her really hard to get a read on early. So for now I'm just saying neutral.

rsoultin running around poking people with accusations. Little bit too quick about it and jumping from person to person very fast it seems. I'm not sure whether to read that as a genuine scumhunt attempt or bluehunting. And very, very quick to judge HtS like he's trying to find a reason to hang someone up as a nice big lynch target right away. Neutral leaning towards scum, I'm somewhat suspicious but I'm not sure if that's my own feeling or influenced by comments from other people so it'd be unfair to go all of the way and say scum. Maybe he's just really enthusiastic?

jarjarbinks hasn't posted much to go on at all. Don't know whether that's because of the claimed computer problems or because he's trying to stay unnoticed though so its somewhat unfair to read at this early point. Though he IS making a lot of inactivity accusations which doesn't look good.

Trfel made a good initial impressions post with a good observation about HtS. Neutral. I want to almost say "leaning away from scum but not leaning town" here from that first post because its how I feel even thought it makes no sense.

Gumdrop one post. Neutral because judging based on one short post, as for jarjarbinks, is unfair at this point.

Silverarte immediately jumped by rsoultin for lack of clarity after her first post commenting on his reading on all his jumping about. This very much makes me feel they're not teamed up as otherwise they'd not want to draw attention like that. My initial feeling is that either one of them is scum or neither is. Though that could change with more posts.

TheWarWaffle gave an analysis on HtS that seems earnest. On the other hand Trfel pointed out that HtS opened exactly similarly to last time when she was town; and given that WW made such a big deal of the quality of his reads it seems a bit strange that he'd either miss such an obvious source of information. So either WW is trying to make an earnest analysis as town and isn't aware of HtS' past game (which would seem strange given his apparent confidence), or he's scum and might be trying to get a lynch train going against HtS. Possibly with rsoultin possibly just taking advantage of his early comments, I don't know. Hard read to make.

ExO_ made good points about rsoultin and jarjarbinks and was good to call out WarWaffle on his claims of tells but not actually saying anything. Although he hasn't posted a lot I like what I've seen. Probably my strongest townread.

LightningStrike just posted fluff and comments on other people's posts so far. Not really sure what to make of that honestly.

Tubesock is coming across as really scummy from those first few posts. He comments about how he likes rsoultin's finger pointing and comments on jarjar positively as well despite the fact the guy has said little. His only other comments are a question about guides, a comment about how we definitely need to lynch D1 and how "even a mislynch gets a lot of information" and playing down his D1 read ability in order to remain under the radar. It seems a mix of sidetracking, contributing for the sake of looking like contributing, and making excuses for not really getting involved.


So yeah...in short I'd say that my strongest townread so far is probably ExO_ and my strongest scumread would be Tubesock. Though with not much to go on so far that could all change. Convince me! :D

Day 1 is hard.


Edit: LS posted as I was writing this. Last post was pretty good in my opinion, some credit there. Still don't want to make a call on him though. Neutral for now.

On January 06 2015 08:26 ExO_ wrote:
I'm home now and I think I have my first really solid scum read. But starting off with HTS:

I thought she had posted significantly more than she had. But what she has posted I've largely approved of. Her posts, to me, seem reasonable but she's not shying away from giving scum reads. She has been helpful without being rude, while being concise. I think she's town, and definitely not a day 1 lynch candidate.


However take a look at LS in these 2 quotes:





The theme here, is "everybody's town". Not a single scum read here. He has a lot of posts, but when I read his filter I don't see scum hunting. I see him not ruffling feathers of anybody in particular. He's even got a nice little "my reads on day 1 are normally poor" excuse lined up all nice and pretty.

nope nope nope. I see scum

##Vote: LightningStrike

On January 06 2015 09:44 The Shining wrote:
Thank you for clearing that up for me, HTS. The main reason I thought you were suspicious was it felt you overlooked it and were more concerned with focusing me. However, ExO saying you're definitely not a Day 1 lynch is something I'll keep in mind going forward...

After ExO's last post, I'm honestly not convinced and actually much more suspicious of him. His first post was attacking Rsoultin. Instead of waiting to see if he can figure out anything from other posts, his next post is another attack on Jar Jar, which also lead to a Jar Jar fast vote. Then, in the same post that he attacks WarWaffle for stating that he had reads but didn't share them, he gives Tubesock a pass for not giving reads because they'll be crappy reads.



Also, he says he needs to see more people posting and sharing thoughts but he's only got 4 posts or so in that time, as well. His last post was the attack and quick vote on LS. That is twice in 1 day he has quick voted for people with 0 follow through. Why isn't he more curious about Jar Jar not defending his lynch? He was also suspicious of me. As Town, I'm a bit hesitant to vote a lynch and mistakenly kill another town or power role. Him voting left and right makes it seem like he doesn't care who dies.

If anyone's getting my vote right now, it's ExO.

On January 06 2015 11:08 rsoultin wrote:
Heh, it's kind of interesting how many of you are mistaking questions for scumreading people, actually. To clarify, "interesting" does not necessarily mean "scummy" coming from me. I will tell you if I am scumreading someone.

Celeste...I don't think I'll be lynching you Day 1. That's a lot of work to come from scum, whether I agree with your reads or not (and as it's already been stated, my reads are historically far from godly). Kind of early to worry about night kills, though.

Some people I do have concerns about and why:

- Shining. Probably my strongest (read: only) scum read (though I still wouldn't call it strong, just not much to work with so far). It's actually not for the reasons y'all have mentioned, though.

+ Show Spoiler +

Blah. Says things without really saying anything. I colored the names to reflect the alignment implications in his post, which as you can see flip-flopped. He took no definitive stance, neither on the behaviors nor the players.

After this initial post and further waffling on HTS and myself, he conveniently adopts Celestial's explanation for why he thought my behavior was blue-hunting. Perhaps they were truly thinking the same thing, but it seems an awfully convenient out, since Shining has actually played enough to know that probing for alignment on Day 1 is better than sitting on your hands hoping mafia just says something scummy unprompted and unpressured to fill the proverbial silence.

That said, this post gives me pause:
+ Show Spoiler +

I think that the lack of follow-through on posts is a good point on the surface. However, if you go back through ExO's filter, he does explain his reads, asks questions and moves on when he is satisfied. His explanations for voting early also make sense. It has not escaped me that the people Shining is scumreading are those who have scumread him...HTS did, then suddenly she seems more scummy, ExO did and now he's scummy.

That said, I can see town doing that and being uncertain of his reads in the beginning. Shining, do you have some original thoughts? Despite the volume of your posts, I'm not really seeing much other than borrowed explanations, waffling, and faulty logic that even borders on misrepresenting the player you're reading.

- JarJar. I know him, though, so I also know he'll be more comfortable with voting analysis than trying to tone read or analyze semantics. He definitely needs to try harder to find scum Day 1 without the pretty numbers to help, though.
- Tubesock. The fact that he started with policy when he was scumread for that last game actually makes me lean town on him just because you'd think he'd be more concerned with his image if he were scum. The problem is...we're over 24 hours in and all I see is a post about policy lynching.

On January 06 2015 11:46 LightningStrike wrote:
Guys I just got back and I will fully explain my thought process on the stuff.
#1 @Exo I had some reads that I said I needed more posts to figure out their alignment so I should of just said Null instead of the comments I said and I know I don't have any real scum reads just yet and I still trying to figure out who is scum and who is not atm


#2 @JarJarbinks I'm a guy not a girl gosh you and Robik keep calling me a girl -.- But thanks for the defense but that HTS post that everyone over analyzed not mine.


#3 @HTS After reading some posts I decided to just read as Null but leaning town after people told me his post was a drive by post and left a lot to be desired but now I starting to town read him


#4 @Everyone here I now going to full explanation of my reads

1. rsoultin: Town: she been trying hunt for scum like her normal self in Student Mafia IV and Carol of the Bells Mafia where she was Vanilla Town in both games.
2. Half the Sky: Town: She made some silly posts at the start yes but everyone over analyzed them but not unusual from her type of entrance since she did similar entrances in Student Mafia IV and Carol of the Bells Mafia and she been asking some good questions towards The Shining and been following through her questioning and also defended her posts in a manor I feel townie from her.
3. ExO_ Town: He actively been scum hunting throughout today and trying to pressure people and normally this type of behavior comes from town players and honestly I not really confident in my scum reads unless it's based on meta on players I played with in other games.


4.Tubesock: Null leaning town: His posts seem to lack any content but his posting style seem to be the same as he did on Carol where I mislynch him like a dumbass in that game but I looking foward to solidify my town read on him.


5. -Celestial-: Town: He been trying to scum himself but he seem to lack confidence on his end on his reads which is something I notice on newer players on forum mafia coming from SC2 Mafia but he doing some decent questioning too.


6.JarJarBinks: Null: His posts seem to lack content but he said he is sick and I hope he feels much better soon but he also needs to step it up if he's town and help us find scum.


7.Grumdrop: Null: He not posted since his entrance post and hope he posts more but for now I need to place him somewhere so Null is the best place for him atm due to the lack of posts from him.

8.Tfrel: Null leaning town: He seem to be inactive but it due to irl so I hoping he post more tomorrow but he had some good questions on his few posts since the game started but we shall see.

9. Silverate: Null: I need more posts to get a clear read on her since she posted so little and I hope she post more tonight and tomorrow!

#5 @Tubesock I will give context to that post you said was worthless. HTS earlier in the thread asked me for my reads on the newer players at the time so that why I posted those reads.

On January 06 2015 12:51 Tubesock wrote:
I'm having trouble getting over the fact that Shining sheeped ExO and in the next paragraph scumread ExO.

I know I'm a newbie, but I don't think that I would sheep any of my scumreads. A scumread could agree with a read of mine, but uh what world would anyone sheep them?

On January 06 2015 13:17 Silverarte wrote:
Alright! Sorry about that everyone. I am here now though. (Eat dinner with the family and all that )

So..time for the nitty gritty (and tracking down the questions I missed). I admit, this is hard because I prefer to make a basis in anything I state. So I'm analyzing things pretty hard. So..here's me giving up on analyzing and tossing up what I have.

I was asked to clarify my suspicions, so here goes.

@HTS - You are right that a lot of us are so new we're shiny and dripping with the paint. As for what I think of what the others posted so far, it's a lot of saying the same thing but in different ways. Perhaps a better answer to you question is going to be in the addresses below. (Why read the same thing over and over in the same post? ) If I don't answer it though, please say so, so I can. Also, I currently am thinking you are town. There have been numerous examples, but your mentions of what you think of everyone's roles lead me to believe positively in that direction so far!
@Rsoultin To be honest? At the risk of losing cool points here, I entirely forget what I was trying to get at. I can backtrack and guess, but I really don't want to lie about anything. Rules and all. That said, for the analysis portion on you? I'm not entirely sure yet. You haven't convinced me either way.
@Jarjar- Sorry you're sick man! That said, the blatant 'I am town', while funny, makes me want to eye you. The ones who are most blatant often seem to me to be the ones to suspect first. Your sarcasm is fantastic, but I agree with HTS. I don't feel like you want to Scum hunt.
@Exo_ : Reading all of your accusations makes you sound pretty angry in general at first, but afterwards you are really strong in clarifying your points. However, you voted so quickly and you implicate almost as much so. What bothers me is that while you do this, you flip around quickly from person to person based sometimes on good solid reasoning, and other times based on 'I don't like this post'. What exactly is it that made you suspicious of LS and JarJar?
@Warwaffle- Thanks for pointing me at the guide, though I admit, the 'suspicious' intro had me blink a few times. So far though, your analysis has me thinking you as town but I do agree with Celestial. You didn't give us anything of substance.
@Trfel I totally agree wih finding a 'how to find scum' guides. That would help put all of us on the right track. Thank you for the analysis on the Mafia XXX thread by the way. I was reading through it. That said....free townie points?

@LS My alignment is Lawful Neutral, clearly. (Ahahaha...haha...ha...D&D references....ok, beat me now). To be honest, I'm leaning towards town for you. I agree with Jarjar's assessment that I felt more that you were trying to include everyone, rather than specifying a side. That said, I did not see any 'scum' reads myself. You've been pretty straight forward that I can see.

On January 06 2015 17:25 Gumdrop wrote:


I understand entirely. In your spot, it seems like the only rational option.

TheShining. I concur with her belief that there's something off with Exo. Refer to post 246 for his reasoning.

While I do agree with him, I can't simply give him a town pass because he built a case that is moderately secure. My verdict on TheShining is that he is probably town, but I don't want to lock him into town right now.

JarJarBlinks. He is the person that I would be the second most likely to bet on right now as far as scum goes. He has posted a moderate amount, but the sum total of his posts doesn't contribute very much. Check out his posts: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?user=jarjarbinks

All of his posts but 2 are fluff posts.

The first non-fluff post spent most of the time supporting a read on TheShining as being scum, probably. The rest of the time was devoted to... adding length? Of course at the top of the same post, he claimed that his reads were bad.

The other post that wasn't fluff was merely crowdsourcing to get a general consensus on Celestial.

TheWarWaffle. Your first reads impressed me, if for no other reason then you were able to drive to the heart of a matter based on only some slips. Thats solid.

I look forward to new posts from you.

Tube. You asked me which player I would lynch. I would lynch Exo_. I don't even care about the vig call, I care more about the fact that TheShining and Exo were on at very similar times when she made her daming post and he didn't respond to her. The post is now buried on the 12th page.

I am signing off for the night.

On January 07 2015 00:55 Half the Sky wrote:
Silverarte, I'd like you to clarify something:



I want to know why you read Waffle as town when you also agree he didn't give anything of substance? What of the analysis? Or did you change your mind?



I don't disagree that Waffle is lurking.

But then you said before you didn't give anything of substance and now you are saying substance was given? Can you please elaborate on your thought progression regarding the substance part of your argument?

On January 07 2015 01:18 Tubesock wrote:
-Celestial-

Why is Rsoultin more scummy than Gumdrops, Trfel, Silver, and me? I get why you town ExO so hard, and HTS but not the next 3 on your list?

On January 07 2015 01:43 -Celestial- wrote:
Ok I've taken the time myself to read over the evidence that LS presented and...actually its pretty convincing. Although I think meta reads, especially based on just one game, can easily be manipulated he IS playing this very similar to the way he has in the past and it IS from three separate games so...yeah well done there.

I can't in good faith vote LS anymore. His playstyle is just too consistent between townie games there and it has severely shaken my confidence on it. I don't really know playstyles very well of course but those links were fairly convincing. Of course LS could be deliberately selecting evidence but it doesn't feel like that, it feels more like a genuine attempt at convincing. Not a D1 lynch for me anymore.


I'm going to take a chance and remove my vote from there and put it on someone else. Its between WW, Shining and jarjar for me, as per my reads earlier. I agree with Tube, WW isn't the best candidate. His opening post was weak and he's said nothing since then but that isn't enough for me to lynch him at this early stage. I'd like to see more from Shining before I could put a vote down there. So I guess I'm going with jarjar for now since I have to vote for SOMEONE and frankly I really don't like his posting at all, it looks really scummy; was also the second highest read on my list so...

##Unvote

##Vote: jarjarbinks





I think I'm still somewhat tainted by rsoultin's original impression on me. I really, really didn't like what appeared to be bluehunting (the reasoning for which I posted a little while back, I can quote it if you like). Though she has improved somewhat since that I'm still wary.

Gumdrops I've just flat out not seen enough from to make much of a judgement call. Same with Trfel. But both of them posted something that appeared to be reasonably thought out so slight leanings towards town. Trfel also stated in advance he wouldn't be around for a bit and Gumdrops just seems awkward about posting. I can't condemn either of them to scum for that.

Silver I have literally no idea about, as I posted. I'd appreciate anyone else's thoughts because to me it just appears to be a mix.

You didn't start great which is why I leaned you towards scum, but I didn't find your opening to be as scummy as rsoultins was and you've both improved in my eyes to the point where you're both back to neutral. But since rsoultin started off with slightly more damning posts you're slightly more in the townie direction than she is.

On January 07 2015 02:02 jarjarbinks wrote:
Singular posts that are suspicious to me (Ignore my lack of knowledge on the English language if you can!)-

Shining- Based off 1 past game, I could see Shining’s posts on here being similar to when she was mafia last game. Really weak case though, as I’ve only played with Shining once. I could see her defending her way out of my suspicion, since it is a weak case and Shining has prodded several different people as well as defended herself in the past.

Tubesock- If I was a mafia, I would be playing like tubesock. First posts are shallowish, then stepped it up when told to. I haven’t thought his recent posts have been that great, they mostly follow up other’s ideas. It would be posts I could see myself posting if I wanted to post more. Plus he is off Celestial’s scum-list, which does worry me that he will be off other’s as well. A solid defense against my suspicion would be that tubesock is new and is now more confident in posting than he was at the beginning. He has also made analysis, just not at the level as others in my opinion. I don’t think Tubesock would be a smart day 1 lynch because I think we could figure him out later because of the amount of posts he has been posting.

Silverarte- If I had to choose someone who was playing similar to LS that wasn’t LS it would be Silverarte. Silverarte has no relative suspicion in comparison to LS which makes me suspicious!


Gumdrop- Lack of posts. Most people have given him a pass which isn’t good in my opinion. He has gotten some votes though, despite me seeing myself as an easier target than gumdrop. A good defense against my suspicion would be his last post, which I thought was pretty good.

LS- I would file LS as suspicious but someone I would want to not lynch day 1. He has the attention of people, and he posts a lot. I think it should be easier to determine him mafia later on IF he is mafia. I think it would be easier to get backing from others as well based on what I have read on here so far.

Suspicions on collaboration (I think it would be stupid to collaborate as mafia day 1, but what do I know):

Celestial-Exo: Small hints of collaboration. If I was mafia, I think the best person to estabilish my credibility as town would be Celestial. Have generally agreed with all of their posts. Both went after LS.

Rsoultin-Silverarte-LS-me if you would like: Rsoultin generally makes good logical arguments from what I have seen from her and from personal experience. It is very easy to bandwagon her points. Silverarte, LS, and I have all done that already. Silverarte has been on her side since the beginning. You can attribute that to them being friends. LS did bandwagon on Rsoultins ideas, but you could attribute that to LS’s defense. Still worth noting for now.

People I’m generally scared of:

Celestial- Established great credibility day 1. Your writing style is very similar to a very established economist professor’s. If I was good at this game and was mafia, establishing credibility would be a top priority.

Rsoultin- Very good at prodding and generating very logical arguments against people. Which means, if mafia, would be very good at it. Can prod and generate arguments about fallacies in people’s posts remarkably well. If she is mafia, I will have a difficult time reading it and a difficult time trying to convince others of it.

People I think are least scummy:

HTS-Good analysis and limited posts make it hard for me to be suspicious.

Exo- great prodder early day and seems to be flinging scum everywhere. I would try to do this as scum (I think I’d have a better shot at this over establishing credibility lol). I also like that he tried to generate others to talk more (I’m such a hypocrite). Plus, people have been suspicious of him. That makes me a little more at ease about not being suspicious of him just in case he truly is mafia.

On January 07 2015 04:51 TheWarWaffle wrote:
My apologies for the inactivity. I give no excuse other than the fact that my life is busy.

After reading the thread my current reads for the game are as follows:

The Shining: Town

The Shining has not posted all that much but the quality of posting changed drastically as soon as the game started. The Shining asks questions where they need to be asked and maintains a cordial aloofness towards everyone who is playing. No person is accused of anything without evidence.

Half the Sky: Town

HTS acts like a true townie. Says what she wants, when she wants to, to whomever she wants. At least, that's what she wants us to believe, but I don't have anything better at this time.

rsoultin: Suspicious

The accusation-train keeps on rolling whenever rsoultin is around. I find the similarities in play style to her previous games an indicator of deceit rather than openness. Rsoultin rolled Town in every other game she played like this, so why shouldn't she be Town now? I can't think of a better cover than this. Strangely, even though rsoultin admits that it's her "bias" to ignore inactives, she votes for me. This is strange for several reasons: I was inactive at the time she started my lynch wagon; she had previously agreed with my post on HTS; and there was no progression of thought as to why I was scum.


jarjarbinks: Light Town

Jarjarbinks' behavior sets off no alarm bells in my mind even though he lurks more than he posts. The posts he does make are normally short and succinct, and while many of his posts appear misleading at first, they work in the context. I think the only reason he is voting for me is because other people started the wagon.

Trfel: Unknown

As Trfel has posted effectively nothing indicating any affiliation, I must refrain from passing judgment on the hangman.

Gumdrop: Town

Gumdrop hasn't said much but from what was said I glean bits of Town. The reasons given for not posting more are adequate, and the type of posts implies a desire for something to happen, something the Mafia does not want. The posts that were made are logical and forward-thinking. A more Mafia-oriented lurker would post more misleading information.

Silverarte: Possible Mafia

The ease of which Silverarte hops aboard the bandwagon train is startling. Silverarte was leaning towards ExO_ and Gumdrop being scum, for the reasons of aggressive accusations and "posting and offering nothing" respectively. Somehow, both of these are forgotten as soon as she jumped on my vote bandwagon. For someone who admits she's new and even goes as far to use that as defense for gumdrop her voting for me makes no sense based on her previous actions. The previous existing relationship between Silverarte and rsoultin gives cause for the sudden change of thought, but even so...

ExO_: Light Town

My thoughts on ExO_ have flipped back and forth for some time now. Initially I thought he was town for being the only one willing to aggressively step and take affirmative action. After that, I thought he was scum for simply spreading accusations thin and putting a cloud of doubt over everyone, which is scum-like behavior. Though his disappearance is suspicious, it does not seem implicative.

-Celestial-: Town

-Celestial- maintains a consistent level of posts and explains his thoughts in a logical progression. I see no suspicious behavior, only a desire to understand and unearth new information.

LightningStrike: Suspicious/Unknown

I have my own reasons for being suspicious of LS, mainly due to the constant attempts to shift attention whenever the focus is on him.

Tubesock: Mafia

After looking at all of Tubesock's posts, I strongly believe that he is Mafia. His posts, while numerous, are short and always seem to detract from the conversation rather than add. Very few of the accusations presented by Tubesock are his; most are other people's regurgitated ideas. I think Tubesock's passive beginning was only due to the low amount of traffic it received, and that his "coming out of his shell" was him realizing that he could take advantage of it. Several times he has posted about the inactivity of the thread, which seems redundant when your very post makes it active. Tubesock only did this to make it look like he cares. A Mafia player wants there to be confusion, chaos, and distrust in the thread. Do Tubesock's actions create clear, organized discussion? I don't think so.

Currently, Tubesock has my vote. I'd like to hear other people's opinions as well.

On January 07 2015 05:40 Gumdrop wrote:
I know that it is popular to want to lynch LS right now. Presently though I don't see it though. :/

Irrelevant of that Exo_ has still yet to impress me.

Vote: Exo_

On January 07 2015 06:16 Tubesock wrote:
My case on Warwaffle is simply what I see as hypocrisy in his reads. He thinks Jarjar and shining are town for stuff but for the same stuff he scums Rsoultin, silverarte and I. I also disagree with his town reads on Jarjar and shining and I think he's essentially OMGUSing those who are on his wagon or support it. Except for JarJar.

On January 07 2015 06:24 Trfel wrote:
As for The Shining, I don't really see the initial complaint on rsoultin's questioning as town or scum. More like null. Rsoultin's questioning obviously wasn't blue hunting, it and questioning is good, as it gains information. Still, there is no reason for The Shining to ask rsoultin to stop asking questions, regardless of his alignment. This makes me think that this isn't scum motivated, but is just a newer player with a misinterpretation? Still, his play has been rather poor up to this point. Almost no posting and the OMGUS on ExO. It's not a bad lynch, though I am more inclined to think that he is just a town player with some misinterpretations.

Also, I really don't like -Celestial-'s opening post. Most of the points made feel wrong to me. I don't scumread him for it, but I am rather surprised by the amount of other people who agreed with it.

On January 07 2015 06:44 ExO_ wrote:
Re-reading the case on WarWaffle, I think there is a lot of scum indications there, but for me it's based on his bizzare reads. He defends somebody like gumdrops in a way that makes no sense. Gumdrops is clearly inactive and not contributing a lot to the thread. He defends shining and jarjar. JarJar's post aren't anything like he makes them out to be, and shining is not the paragon of asking the correct questions.

His post is so wrong that I would honestly believe he was jester. It's definitely scummy. It paints the 3 mafia as himself/JarJar/shining. But it does this so blatantly that it scares me. And then he hardly says anything about LS.

I don't know. It does make me question whether or not the best lynch is LS.

On January 07 2015 09:10 LightningStrike wrote:
God damn it TheWarWaffle if you're a power role you should of claimed. Fuck.....

On January 07 2015 09:41 rsoultin wrote:
...

Okay. First off, @ WW...hopefully someone on the outside has already said this to you, but the soft claim was absolutely the best play as vet. You did a good job in the end, assuming that your excuses were true. Sorry you got lynched, man.

Secondly, I apologize for the train I started with a pressure vote...even if I did have reason to at the time.

Thirdly, I don't understand why we're lynching a blue claim on Day 1 ^^; It makes sense later in the game especially in a lynch or lose situation with one or two scum left maybe, but these claims resolve themselves ^^;. That said...I don't know that scum pushed the lynch forward or town just didn't recognize that a blue claim should be left alone on Day 1.

Eh, I need to go back and look at the posting leading up and stuff, but I have skimmed, and Shining, yeah, I do think ExO is capable of bamboozling everyone (just as my brother apparently thinks of me) however scumreading him for being a decent liar is not gonna sell. Maybe you had other scumtells on him. I'll have to read things closer.

Meh -_-.

On January 07 2015 10:20 -Celestial- wrote:



http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=25#484

I went over why I wasn't going with the top two earlier on before the kill. In fact I even acknowledged that my vote was likely going to be useless because jarjar was unlikely to get the votes needed but I was open to be convinced to change to a wagon. Nobody did in the end.


In short:

- Over and over again I've stated that WW was going a bad lynch. So I wasn't going to get on that wagon. I was leaning scum on him last set of reads, but when you decided to start the lynch train on him I was extremely uncomfortable hitching up to that because it was a train started over a pressure vote and not a clear analysis of him being scum.

- LS I was originally voting for and was my D1 lynch until he demonstrated that this kind of play as townie has been normal for him several times in the past. Which led me to conclude that, although I was still suspicious, he was a bad D1 lynch.

- I was never convinced of the case for a D1 Shining lynch though I explicitly stated in my last full set of reads that Shining was a possibly D2 lynch for me. I never saw enough from anyone in the last few pages to convince me otherwise to jump on the Shining train at this early point. Suspicious but not enough for me to condemn.

- jarjar was my second top read after LS. After LS convinced me he was a bad D1 lynch it was natural to switch to jarjar. I left myself open to being convinced to change that but nobody did, so I saw no point in switching votes so late from someone I've been reading scum to someone I'm less sure about purely so my votes were "with a group".


Ultimately in the end I wasn't convinced strongly enough either way on WW to try to kill him or save him. I felt it was a bad lynch but he didn't give me enough to go on to try to drive a campaign to save him, largely because he posted basically nothing. And nobody else posted anything to convince me of anyone else being a worthy target. So rather than throw my vote around randomly I felt it best to stick to my own reads, even if that meant a wasted vote.

On January 07 2015 10:32 rsoultin wrote:
This does line up with the posts you made, Celestial. Meh, knowing that you're new makes it harder, cause most people I would be saying BS to right now.



It's clear here that you knew that WW claimed. So normally my BS meter would be going off, because you clearly stated here that you are also suspicious of LS, and a blue claim should be enough on Day 1 to convince people not to lynch WW.

You also clearly knew that WW was going to be the lynch.

I didn't personally like LS as a Day 1 lynch...although I think that of the players here he should be quicker to move his vote than anyone on that train and that does not sit well with me, considering I know that he was lynched as a blue role in his first game and was especially concerned about that the last several games, but apparently not this one...

Yet there was still shining.

Are you townreading Shining? If you're calling him a Day 2 lynch...I don't get it. Suspicious of LS and suspicious enough of Shining to consider lynching him, but you decided to park your vote instead?

On January 07 2015 10:57 rsoultin wrote:


Absolute BS -_-

Shining had 3 votes to WW's 5, and I've already explained why WW should have been given the benefit of the doubt. I can understand not realizing it then...

But you would have made 4 on Shining. 3 had already voted him. Tube was scumreading him. I was scumreading him. There was plenty enough interest to change votes. BS. You and one on WWs wagon shifting from Shining would have been enough.

On January 07 2015 11:37 -Celestial- wrote:
He should have been given the benefit of the doubt on a three line post saying he's blue? Off the back of a bunch of suspicious posts? I'm really not sure what I can say here to be honest except that's just not how I felt when I saw it.

Yes, I threw my vote away. I own up to that and I'm sorry to WW for my part, small as it was, in the mislynch. I can't say I'm particularly happy about it but there it is and I'm really not sure what the you want from me here. I've already explained my reasoning, such as it is. I don't have much more I can really say.


And with all due respect you're the person who started the train on WW in the first place. So if we're asking questions here about voting motivations then please explain these posts of yours:



You actively stated you preferred the Shining lynch over the WW one and your vote on WW was initially just pure pressure. But still remained on WW saying that you wouldn't be around at EoD to change it. Why? Why not go for the Shining vote that you were so convinced of? There were people who actually voted for WW around between his claim and the EoD that didn't change their votes. What of them?

In essence why are you trying to throw blame around so much on a lynch you actively participated in, despite claiming that someone else was more desirable as a lynch for you? I can't say I'm proud of myself for letting a blue get killed, but you deliberately voted for the poor guy, despite explicitly saying someone else was a better target.

On January 07 2015 12:16 rsoultin wrote:
Okay, going to bed for realz. Will read what anyone cares to post here in the morning.

Still want to know your train of thought, Shining. Please explain your votes.

Gumdrop, too. Please. (I did read your filter, but I want to hear why you chose to vote outside the main lynches.)

And anyone's post-flip impressions would be appreciated as well. Definitely want to hear Silver explain the progression of her reads and JarJar, time to kick in, bro. I gave you the benefit of the doubt and your later posting is better, but now that we have solid evidence I expect you to step up.

On January 07 2015 16:02 jarjarbinks wrote:
I think some people have some questions to answer for:

I will focus on the 5 who voted for Warwaffle, because you know, they like decided to kill a power role towny AFTER he claimed power role. On a side note revealing the size of my brain, I originally was 80% sure you shouldn’t kill someone who claims a power role and wait at least 1 day, but I wasn’t 100% sure. All this claiming stuff is somehow going over my head.

Rsoultin- The mastermind behind the plot! What a surprise! I feel like you literally kill all town in every game lol You have like the worst track record! There should be a new role specifically created for you, much like the vigilante except you just convince everyone to kill town every day. And your role never wins. I will get off that pointless rant and start accusing. I’m just putting you as mafia in my accusations for now, since you have killed more town than mafia has at this point. IF you were playing mafia, in the morning of the death (no I will not grab quotes, feel free to ask me why if you want some excuses. I also didn’t edit, same story), you pick a towny that you know is an easy target. Everyone hates the inactives on this thread, and warwaffle hasn’t posted much of value despite claiming to know things. There were other logical reasons? I don’t remember. Anyways, sounds like an easy enough target. Probably the desperate townies who are being harassed will cling to a logical argument. You check back later and post some more things about shining, but keep your vote on warwaffle. This is smart so are perceived as the main driver on a towny death (day 1 or no this is not the best). You mention not being around at EOD which is also smart. You previously mentioned you were going to be very close to missing EOD before, this will affirm. Maybe you can get “lucky” and change your vote if you see a better target later. You DO get to see the votes before EOD. The waffle train struck gold for you and you have a great excuse! People will treat you like silverarte when vote analyzing. You casually wait a decent amount of time, 40 ish minutes sounds perfect! You rant and rage, show as much indignation as possible. You go off on LS and celestial mostly. Celestial is a fantastic target because he wasted his vote. LS already looks suspicious and voted for waffle. Plus LS looks bad for the last game you guys played together. Did you rant on tube? You should definitely rant on tube if you didn’t, I want to. You will look tomorrow to find a dumb towny who did make a decent vote and go on them (there was a lot of us. I honestly hate my own vote and I didn’t even vote waffle), which will divert attention from you as you look for a good nightkill.

Questions for you:
1. What were you doing around 6 central time? Eating Dinner? Working? I know you work strange hours sometimes. Your phone is better than mine so unless you were working I’m not sure what you were doing.
2. Why didn’t you switch your vote to shining at 4 your time? You like diversifying the votes so you can switch later. You would risk vote wasting, but you know if you put your mind to it you could have convinced some of us to follow suit.
3. You mentioned anger at TS, Celestial, and Shining for voting waffle. No tube? Silver has a good excuse, so I can see less indignation there.
4. If you had to pick 2 people on the waffle train that were mafia, who would they be? Let’s say you have to lynch one right now. Who is that?

Ok that was long… I’ll do the other ones tomorrow, its past my bedtime and I don’t want to be sick! O crap, more excuses. Sorry guys.

On January 07 2015 22:41 rsoultin wrote:


Cool story bro. I've taken the liberty of highlighting the only facts in your long narrative, as everything else is paranoid conjecture. Was tempted to ignore you entirely cause you're clearly already decided on scumreading me, but for everyone else interested in your questions:

1. Work hours are 9-6pm then I drive home in San Antonio rush hour traffic. No access to net at work nor my mobile while on the job. (You know all this JarJar, so coming from you that question just looks like a smear campaign. Bad form.)
2. I do not like vote wasting. 1 other vote on Shining while the people I was trying to convince were resistant...I kept my vote on the scummiest read (to me) actually being pushed at the time.
3. Okay? And? Tube wasn't in the thread like LS and Celeste were to question. He was super tunneled. What do you expect him to answer?
4. I'm not actually convinced that mafia was on the waffle train. Since he's town mafia wouldn't have to be unless they were pushing him instead of a mafia lynch. If Shining is mafia, I already said LS looks super scummy, because his switch could have gotten Shining lynched (only one other vote necessary). And he has in the past been very concerned about lynching blues, so I would think that a blue claim would carry more weight with him.

Also, a word to he wise...there are probably not 5 scum in this game. If you are going to scumread every player on a town lynch, especially not knowing the alignments of the other trains, you'll probably run out of townreads very quickly. (Not everyone on that train "decided to vote a power role towny AFTER he claimed power role". Please keep you facts straight when making cases.)

On January 07 2015 23:19 Silverarte wrote:
I know JarJar's questions aren't directed at me (and I'm reading them as specifically at Rsoultin right now) but I felt I should answer them, particularly with the schedule in my world seeming to be a problem-ish. So I'm going to quickly answer at least number 1 before I run out the door.

6 central time is 5pm for me, the exact time I'm getting off (if I am lucky). I have a 20 minute to hour long commute (traffic, weather, so on) and immediately come home to trying to eat dinner, settling my household down and helping with sick people (who so lovingly gave me their cold xD). I have to be at work at 8:30 am, but again with that commute. ( Generally leave at 7:30 my time for work)
---

@Ls Glad you're back and she's ok! <3 LS, what makes you so suspicious of Shining? In your mind, who is the biggest candidate to lynch right now and why? I know Shining is on your radar, but what makes Shining more important than say...Gumdrop?

On January 08 2015 05:45 Half the Sky wrote:
Back in thread after yet another long day at work.

First off, the vote analysis. Starting with the isolated votes:

So Gumdrop and Celestial already voted outside the wagons, Celestial has already explained away (which I need to have a further look at), but it's Gumdrop's turn, I think Tube called him earlier saying in no world would ExO be done for.

It doesn't appear Gumdrop was in thread, but if you were, whom would you have voted for and what are your thoughts now?

On the main wagon, I highly doubt the entire scumteam (on page 11 I made assumptions there would be 3 scum) voted Waffle, because that is too obvious for D1. However, 2 of the votes on that wagon were sheep votes off someone with decent town cred, so it's likely at least 1 scum somewhere could have taken advantage.

WW made his claim 95 minutes prior to EoD. Of the votes coming in after that according to the vote thread, only Shining voted Waffle. To me, Shining's vote on Waffle in of itself is not alignment indicative. I had interpreted that as him trying to prevent a quickhammer on himself, considering his question on the tie vote. I had other issues with Shining and he still hasn't answered some of the concerns previously addressed with him.

Silverarte was out of thread because of her schedule. Voted WW earlier, and admits she was convinced by others. I looked closer at her read progression on WW and some of her other scumreads. She admits she sheeped the points made on WW (presumably by Rasputin) but looking at her filter I don't understand what in her mind made WW more scummy than say JJB, whom she was also scumreading and I still don't understand where she stood on Rasputin prior to voting. I'm assuming town at the time she voted because she obviously sheeped her, but I wonder if anything has since changed post-lynch. I'd really like her to clarify/update her reads.

LS, well, deary me. I was 50/50 on this guy but now he looks worse. I looked at the exchange between him and Rasputin and aside from the whole blue role controversy I'm just not buying this:



As town, I don't know how not observing the votes near EoD would fly. He said he's tunnelled too hard on Waffle, so I decided to work backwards on read progression. Tunnelled? Really?

Going through LS's filter, he goes on from a scum read post on Shining to a vote on WW on page 17, 17 minutes after Rasputin votes him. In his filter, there is zero progression to WW up to the time he votes him. After his vote I see one repetition in his filter of why he voted but I don't see any followup questions, or him making a bigger case. Then he says he's tunnelled on him. I don't even. It just seems to me too convenient of a vote.

In contrast, Tubesock was actually tunnelled on WW and I could at least follow where he was coming from, why he asked the questions he did. In his filter there are 10+ posts with questions on WW and explanations on WW's read post. None of that from LS.

Once again, negligible/poor read progression leading up to his vote on WW and not taking it off post-claim as Rasputin discussed makes LS look very poor.

LS, can you explain what differentiated WW from Shining at the time you voted him?

I will comment on some of the other votes as well, but I am going to grab some food.

On January 08 2015 08:10 Gumdrop wrote:


By pissing away my vote, I effectively voted for the lead. The lead for the entire time was WarWaffle.

When he declared his role... it made things troublesome. Was he mafia that was trying to save his own hide? Was he actually a powerful role? Everything reeked of desperation and it wouldn't matter if he was scum or town, he would have done the exact same things to try to save himself from being lynched.

I didn't agree with some of his thoughts on his only large scale analysis of peoples alignments, but thats neither here nor there now.

I was paralyzed with inaction, because I didn't know what to do and none of the options seemed like good ones. Taking a look at the votes, and based off the information on how tie votes are decided that Trfel gave us, it would have taken at least two people to make a not WarWaffle lynch happen.

Looking at the vote tallies from yesterday though, the last second vote changes interest me more than anything else.

JarJar and Trfel, neither one of you really explained why you swapped over to join the Shinings lynch mob. You both just gave vague explanations. Can you explain further please?

On January 08 2015 14:27 ExO_ wrote: "Gumdrops is an inactive scummy fuck".

On January 08 2015 09:40 rsoultin wrote:

You saw the votes right before the end? Why did you switch your vote? You bolded "you DO get to see the votes right before EOD". Why wouldn't you switch? You ranted about how bad a waffle vote was.

On January 07 2015 06:36 The_Templar wrote:
Day 1 Vote Count

jarjarbinks (1): ExO_, -Celestial-
LightningStrike (3): ExO_, -Celestial-, Trfel, TheWarWaffle
Gumdrop (0): Tubesock
TheWarWaffle (4): rsoultin, LightningStrike, Silverarte, Tubesock
Tubesock (0): TheWarWaffle
ExO_ (1): Gumdrop
The Shining (1): Half the Sky

Not Voting (2): The Shining, jarjarbink

Currently, TheWarWaffle is set to be lynched. until deadline.

On January 07 2015 02:14 jarjarbinks wrote:
List of Scum:
#1: Shining
#2: Tube
#3: Silver
#4: Waffle
#5: LS

On January 07 2015 08:51 jarjarbinks wrote:
I don't know what to think about warwaffle. I'm guessing he's lying about the power role.

Its enough to keep my from voting for him though.

My vote is for the shining. And I already did It in the thread. Still suspicious enough to pick him in my top three and give another option to others who also were suspicious of him (sorry about the "she's" before)

On January 08 2015 09:52 The Shining wrote:
Day and Night one are now over. I said I wasn't done in my earlier post so here it is.

Starting with the votes:



Mafia have a habit of hiding their team in different spots, especially Day One. They do it on order to not make it obvious that they're banding together. One of those spots was the main wagon. Look at WW's vote list. I'm town reading Soultin, Silver and myself as town and Tube null. I'm going with LS as the Mafia on this wagon. I took a look at the last Student Mafia game and he's displaying the same lack of reads here that he did there. Also, he sheeps constantly onto whatever one person says. In Student Mafia, he did it with batsnacks and here, he's doing it with RSoultin. That, along with Soultin's pressure which I'm now deeming town and the points she puts up, makes Soultin Town in my eyes.

LS has offered very little, if anything, to us this game. He went from a big list post where basically everyone was a townread to sheeping scumreads onto myself. Then, he sheeps onto the main wagon in WarWaffle.

Also, Mafia like to throw away votes once the main lynch is secured. WW's wagon caught momentum fast. This leaves the LS wagon, which only has WW and ExO, a blue role and a guy who I'm still unsure about but might be willing to give him benefit of the doubt. Then there's ExO with the lone Gumdrop vote. And my wagon, which has a confirmed towny in Trfel, JarJar and HTS.

Celestial throwing away that vote on JarJar is really suspicious. That and the very early big post by Celestial that gave out a bunch of free town reads, mine included, a post that wasn't really warranted at the time. As has been mentioned before, Mafia likes to give out free town reads and hide in big posts. They also like to make excuses, which Celestial has done right as EoN and beginning of Day 2 started.

The last Mafia is, I think, Jar Jar. Up until now, he's given us nothing of substance minus excuses. The little content he has posted has been recent, and it's another big post that isn't saying much of anything. Then there is this:



Are you going to give us your thoughts on this yourself? Or just going to wait for the thread to validate your slow push? Mafia love leaving a little slow push that Town can run with. It's easier to blame the mislynch on town than take the blame for it themselves.

On January 08 2015 10:41 jarjarbinks wrote:


Kinda being a donkey here bro. Misquoting yourself now?



The votecount WHICH I SAW BEFORE EOD JUST AS BOLDED ABOVE when I was in the thread and Trfel was saying he didn't want to lynch Shining. Your turn to answer questions.



Did this list of reads change prior to the end of the vote? You don't even mention LS leading up to the lynch but now you're going on about it.



Why wait so long to cast your vote? 9 minutes before the deadline? You were in and out of the thread throughout the day. You're clever enough to vote for Shining, force him to switch to the WW vote, and come out looking rosy because you didn't vote for the blue-claimed townie.

On January 08 2015 10:49 rsoultin wrote:
Yeah...that was the feel I was getting.

I really don't like the lying thing. It rubs me the wrong way. People being too concerned about being "consistent" (yes Celeste, that's at you, though damn these newbie games and figuring out what is noob and what is scum) and how their actions appear to others rubs me wrong.

Meh. I'll have to think on you, Shining.

You seemed very wishy-washy at the beginning, plus all the excuses, especially with your first two posts. The analysis seemed like a place holder with no conclusion. Something to look busy without committing.

Can you please explain to me how Celestial's explanation of blue-hunting lines up with what you thought I was doing, and link the post from Silver that made you change your mind?

I don't like LS and JarJar is bugging me because his giant screamy post (apart from being directed at me, which is convenient actually since I know him best) is just way out-of-character for him. My brother isn't terribly aggressive normally, especially with such obvious bias and leading words meant to make you form your opinion the way he wants. But, eh, LS...he's hard for me to read cause he gets scumread every single game, you know? Meh.

On January 08 2015 11:15 jarjarbinks wrote:
Silverarte’s turn! A kill equals a scumread in my book for now, since I only have 1 set of datapoints to go on. I’m sure I’ll get there eventually but I want to talk about your behavior in the thread first. I would call it a good newbie mix. Don’t post a lot of stuff. Defend yourself when the inactive haters come knocking. Post a list thread like everyone else (including me, I liked yours better!) My worry with you was already mentioned before, and was probably garbage/BS considering it was my reads + day 1. I have already been deemed “the scummiest town” Celestial has ever seen, which in my book equals “worst player” he has ever seen. I expect you will answer my questions and move on from this post while reading up on others.

On to the Scumread, or my attempts of one. I have no stories. No long drawn out story seems believable to me. Based on your posting so far, if I had to guess what you would be like, it would be the silent mafia people generally like. You don’t get much attention, you make claims like everyone else. In the end you will say surprise! Waffle was an easy vote for you, it was logical and you knew he was town. If someone asks you that in the end and you are mafia, I’m pretty sure that is the exact answer you would give.

If you are mafia I’m worried because the only attachment you sort of have is to Rsoultin. And its definitely defendable. I wouldn’t even call her out for if you were mafia, because I would have done the same thing if I were in your shoes if I was both mafia and town.

On January 08 2015 12:31 LightningStrike wrote:

I up for a Shining and lynch right now if you want to go for it right now. I not moving my vote until a better case on a different person that isn't me because I can't vote for myself obviously.

On January 08 2015 12:59 LightningStrike wrote:
Tfrel is known for making really good cases on Day 1 and 2 so at least 1 of the players I played here is scum because they know his Case making power but also he was going after me and Shining and rsoultins case on Shining is pretty good right now in my eyes. Also if you know Shinings alignment then you will figure mine out too. Two birds with 1 stone?

On January 08 2015 13:58 jarjarbinks wrote:
To HTS on Shining

Can't find the quote to back me up on this...Shining said something I really liked, right before I voted for him ironically. I swear I'm super good at this game lolz. Then he changed his vote to Waffle and I facepalmed. I still blame myself for that. I think Shining blamed me too later. Apologies.

That saying as people have said before I could see a smear campaign on Shining. I see him as an easy target, but not as stupid easy as say me, based on how things played out.

As for the "meta read". His defense against it was pure solid. I liked it. It'll be interesting to see if he's just really good at convincing me of things or if it was wrong of me to think he was scum in the first place.

Despite that, trfel voted for him and he's 100% dead by mafia.

So if there's multiple lynchtrains and shining is one of them, I could be persuaded to vote for him if the other guys haven't shown bad tendencies. The top three for me as of now are LS, tube, then shining.

On January 08 2015 14:27 ExO_ wrote:
Okay I've read the pages since I left yesterday. Jesus Christ some long-winded posts, and the improper quotation format from rsoultin/jarjar was annoying.

I think jarjar in a lot of his reads is suffering from confirmation bias. I'm not entirely sure where I stand on him right now. For now, I don't think I can consider him scum. Null

I'm strong town-reading HTS. Everything she's posted has been good in my opinion. She's asked questions I've wanted to know the answers to as I read the thread.

I think I'm still sold that Lightning Strike is scum. He has an OMGUS on shining today after shining voted him. I know he's saying his mother's medical problems are affecting him a bit, but I don't think it even comes close to being able to clear him as town. Strong Scum

Based on his day 1 play, I thought shining might've been scum. But he's really stepped it up since then. I think he's made some bad calls and reads, but I believe it's due to his newness rather than him being scum. I'd say he's more misguided town. Soft town read for now.

Going to quote directly from my notes: "Gumdrops is an inactive scummy fuck". He's not helping town at all. From his last post:

On January 08 2015 08:10 Gumdrop wrote:

I didn't agree with some of his thoughts on his only large scale analysis of peoples alignments, but thats neither here nor there now.

I was paralyzed with inaction, because I didn't know what to do and none of the options seemed like good ones. Taking a look at the votes, and based off the information on how tie votes are decided that Trfel gave us, it would have taken at least two people to make a not WarWaffle lynch happen.

First he offers a piss-poor "I didn't agree with his (WarWaffle) thoughts, without explaining what he means at all. Then this "paralyzed with inaction" not knowing what to do crap. If he didn't know what to do, why is he not posting in the thread asking questions and figuring out what to do?

Then there's Celestial. I think I'm starting to scum read him as well. I didn't like that he just parked his vote on jarjar. I also don't like how he seems to be going whichever way the wind blows. He's easily swayed with whoever is posting at the time. For example he hopped right on the LS train with me, then when I was gone for a while he backed off it, only to start agreeing with me more when I got back in the thread. Another example is he did a bit of an OMGUS on rsoultin after day 1, but immediately said he was willing to give he the benefit of the doubt. That's scum behavior in my mind. Scum read.


So thats my first thoughts. I'll also say it looks like we do not have a vigi, as I'd expect the vigi to shoot night 1.

On January 08 2015 14:35 Silverarte wrote:
Well! Soultin took pity on me and told me about the Filter function. Let me tell you...that helps so much. (Who knew that going page by page out of all of these was a 'bad' idea? XD)
So, I think first and foremost...I owe a recap of what I think everyone is!

The Shining: You, my friend, are getting scum votes all over the place! And I'm not entirely sure what to make of you just yet. Part of this is certainly my inexperience, but I felt you defended yourself relatively well here in your second post. The first ones you gave flipped back and forth, but it looks like you're backing your decision this round. I'm neutral, leaning towards towne.

HTS: You asked my motivations and thoughts on what's transpired so far. Personally, my first thought is 'Crap, we're getting picked off!". In regards to Waffle, you're right, I sheeped (I believe this means when we're following the votes of others rather than something else, right?). I did this because the cases being made were more reasonable to me at the time. When I was scumming ExO and Gumdrop, I wanted to give them the opportunity to respond before I condemed. I can't say I tunneled, but the sudden silence on Waffle's part made me more suspicious than anything.

As for how I feel about you? (Sheesh I wish we didn't keep missing each other! Well, if I survive til the weekend, I have that off? =D) You've been very consistent and straight forward. You are a straight on town read for me. What are your assessments currently?

Also, in answer to your last post you popped up...I have never played this game before. I am a complete newbie and this is game number 1. (Soultin had been talking about Mafia games continually and I told her I'd try it out). So if it's hard to read me, believe me when I say I find it difficult to read all of you. I'll keep trying though. =)

LS: You are a constant poster, and points to you for that. You do a great job keeping other posters engaged and getting people talking and questioning. I looked through your filter through the beginning. (talk about a read!). Currently, looking through your posts, i'm reading a lot of generalization and little to no specifics on your reads at the moment. I'm growing steadily suspicious of you, particularly with your votes following the 'sheeping trend' (hee...I like that phrase), but I'm seeing little to nothing else. Can you tell me how you're feeling on the people here in, in what way you're leaning and why?

JarJar: I'm not sure what EOD means, but yes, that whole crazy paying the bills thing is biting me in the rear at the moment. Now then...let me bump back to replying to your post at me. That being said, I'm not sure if you just called me out on being scum or not. So, I'll respond as though you did and if you didn't? Weelll...bonus information? =D

I'm discovering one of the hardest things about defending yourself from that view is activity with posting. To compensate, I do my best to post when I come home and before going to work. THAT said...my vote on Waffle was indeed sheeping with Rsoultin. She wrote a good defense and looking back through the posts (which I was going page by page at the time...gosh I love filters) it made logical sense to me. And for me, that matters. That said, in defense against being scum, while I sheeped a vote, I have not tunneled towards anyone and I've been open and honest about what I thought and why.
So let me direct a question or two towards you. You aren't out of the suspicion waters yet with me! =P Following what you said about voting LS, what is your reasoning for it? What ranks him above Tube or Shining?
Gumdrop: I have to admit, I'm more than a little concerned about you not posting,my friend. When you show up, share your thoughts! Who's suspicious? Who isn't?
Celestial: You're been prolific in your posting, and it's led me to think town for you at first. The throwing away of your vote (as you put it) still puts a redmark on you to watch. I think my biggest fret is the free town passes early, straight to the vote...and then I'm not seeing much here about trying to contribute for the town and it feels floaty about-ish. Is Rsoultin your biggest target right now? Why?
Tubeshock: I'm just neutral on you. You put thought into short bits of words. I'd be really interested in knowing what you think of everyone at this point too. Are JarJar and Shining still your top picks?

On January 08 2015 21:55 Tubesock wrote:
Can't sleep. EoD timing for me is 3pm so I think I'll be awake around 10 or 11.

I'd like to talk about the possible nk's targets. I don't understand nk picks so, I really want feedback on my reasoning. If I were scum, I think I'd kill the biggest threat. This would be either the best players (hardest to lynch) or who are on the right track.

-Celestial- is universally townread at least till the lynch. Probably a doc save. Bad choice. The next towniest people I think are including their targets:

2. ExO_ His only real scumread was LightningStrike and to a lessor extent WarWaffle.
3. Rsoultin Scumming The Shining and I think LightningStrike, also fine with killing Warwaffle
4. Half The Sky Scumming LightingStrike and The Shining
5. Tubesock murdered Warwaffle and voiced next targets as JarJar, The Shining, and LightningStrike
6. Trfel no targets. sheep voted The Shining. Repeatedly defended LS and The Shining.

The rest of you are either lynch targets or lurkers.

In a world where mafia picks the nk based on reputation of play (assuming -Celestial- would get the save), I have a hard time believing that Rsoultin or Half The Sky live. HTS in Carol was amazing. She had 3 jailkeeper (I think that's the generic term for her role) saves, then layed a trap, hard claimed, and then within seconds it seemed mafia conceded. It was BEAUTIFUL. Rsoultin had gorgeous cases, AND a great thread presence with influence. Her reads were not 100% correct but she had a very strong role in winning that game. Trfel helped win the game because he was able to cop check a towny and get it out before he was killed n2 and he had a good case on our first mafia kill that tipped the scales for the lynch.

Of those three nk targets (Rsoultin, HTS, Trfel) Rsoultin and HTS are strong towns in this game. Trfel hasn't really done much. He is a basic lurker. I don't think he'd be a threat.

Unless The Shining and LightningStrike are town. Every single majority read towny is either building cases or scumming hard The Shining and LightningStrike. Those two are buried. They will flip town. Which means get rid of the guy who could stop those miss lynches. Which goes back to Trfel.



I'm getting the impression that Trfel basically townreads TheWarWaffle, LightningStrike, and The Shining. He soft defends them but also talks about how he hasn't really read the thread, is not super confident in reads etc. He's not going to waste his vote so he knows he needs to be on a legitimate wagon (unlike Gumdrops on ExO_ for instance). Presumably, he sheeps his strongest townreads Rsoutlin and Half the Sky.

Moral of the story, if The Shining or LightningStrike are mafia, then one of Rsoultin, Half The Sky, or ExO_ would be dead. I don't see a world where they would nk Trfel. My bad play murdered a claimed role so I think it would be stupid to nk me.


And for the love of God, when I ask you what you think about my case/thoughts be more forceful on why I'm wrong. We fucking killed a blue. The only person who really articulated it being bad was Trfel. No one on WarWaffle moved. Even after the claim, people still said it was a probable fake claim. WarWaffles play was so scummy most of you disregarded his claim. None of you thought the lynch was bad enough to do a yelling all caps post telling us we are idiots for lynching a town/blue.

On January 08 2015 23:57 -Celestial- wrote:
I'll make this short in case I have to run off to be sick. >_>

These are just my first impressions incidentally. If I have any more thoughts on the NK situation I'll post them later.


The big talkers are potential doc saves so that makes them less likely to be targeted I reckon. Trfel was fairly quiet and hasn't put out a huge amount to go on. But he DID say that was going to be the case at first. Looking back he said:


He's not been active in this game much but I'll take your word for it that he's been a good player previously. It seems to me out of the three you highlighted that he's been the quietest, making doc save less likely.

I think the soft defend excuse against not killing Trfel of Shining and LS doesn't really add up. Both of LS and Shining are under intense pressure, killing Trfel and revealing him as town weakens cases against both of them precisely because of the "I don't think they're mafia" and him turning up dead. "Why would they kill someone defending them?" is the logic and it makes sense on the surface. But since he's relatively inactive he's not going to be much help actively defending them D2, assuming his activity stays the same.

If Shining or LS were looking to sow a seed of doubt in the cases against them, a kill of a person who was supporting them but was relatively inactive and so is unlikely to be a huge amount of help in shifting accusations seems to be the way to go. Because it outs a supporter as a townie whilst not losing too much because he's inactive. Whilst simultaneously taking out a good player by reputation based on what you just said about his play in Carol.

To me the real question is which of LS and Shining is the scum. Or are they both and bussing each other in the hopes that one will survive?

On January 09 2015 02:11 ExO_ wrote:


You are lying and I can prove it.



Before my post, this is the only mention you made to lightning strike. And even though you say he posts fluff, in that same post you go on to say his last post was good and he gets some credit. The next time you mention LS, is quoting and agreeing with me.





Oh really?



At this point in time I had been gone from the thread for a while. And thus the discussion moved away from LS for a while. As does your vote, and your vocal suspicions. Next comes:



You finally go back on to LS with:



Coincidentally guess what I posted just 6 posts and 12 minutes before the above quoted post::



HTS and I have a discussion about LS, and then you went back on him.

So at the very least, you are lying about suspecting LS before I posted. You pushed suspicion onto the WW train while carefully parking your vote on jarjar. You have been careful this game and generally agreeable. But if there's one thing I believe:

Liars should be lynched

People make mistakes. But I believe your post is intentionally misleading, not accidental.

##Vote: Celestial

On January 09 2015 05:05 Tubesock wrote:
Also, I'll vote Lightning. But I should let you all know it's 100% fucking ragevote. I do think he's going to flip town.

On January 09 2015 05:16 LightningStrike wrote:
Tubesock I'm town and I think with Celestial putting his vote on JarJar alone was extremely scummy and one member of the mafia in a game which I shadowing a player in pulled that move and was scum so I going off my new scum and also I had read ExO's case on Celestial and all for it.

On January 09 2015 05:17 LightningStrike wrote:
Rsoultin if you are here my baby girl we voting Celestial right now so now is your chance to get rid of one of your scum reads!

On January 09 2015 08:03 ExO_ wrote:


It did to a degree. Let me ask you another question. Trfel said he didn't like any of the lynches. Having reread his filter a couple times, I found something to be odd. Before the it became apparent that WW or LS or Shining was likely to die, there was only one person whoose opening post he specifically mentions as being off. He never got to really expand on it, but can you guess who it is?

On January 09 2015 11:35 Tubesock wrote:


That's more or less why I think D3 I'm going after the scummier of the three lurkers. Plus, D2 vote information and the night kill will hopefully narrow things down. I'm expecting JarJar to bleed if he's town, as his sister keeps saying he's smart and capable.

I know Rsoultin and ExO suspected Celestial at night1 and some of his reaction to the lynch made me wft him for a second. He kept saying how he wasn't sure how the wagon started, and that he was going to investigate it. He isn't acting like he's figured it out yet, nor is he really trying. It's not very towny to need to be a wagon to finally start doing something.

I think it's scummy because I also think the WW lynch was fairly simple.

Some of us were talking in thread. Silverarte and gumdrops were called out for doing a "Hi I'm here post but won't do anything" post. I called for Silver several times. She at least answered (with a list post which I'm totally fine with). She showed up, and demonstrated reading of the thread. No scum hunting though.

People go to bed, I'm up for a couple more hours and when I went to bed I pressure voted Gumdrop. He finally showed up.

At this point Warwaffle was really the only extreme lurker left. Rsoultin pressures. Silver and LS jump on for their reasons. At this point I thought it was still a pressure vote just with 3 people on it.

Then WarWaffle posts. Several people ask questions. He makes this bad bad post.

TubesockJihad begins. Which was wrong but he was scummy enough to keep everyone on him.

Seems pretty simple and straight forward to me. Most everyone was actively asking questions, and I felt that Celestial wasn't. Rsoultin and then ExO started asking him questions, and Celestial didn't do any scumhunting he went to pure defense.

I don't think I can blame him for defending himself rather than scumhunting though. Although, that isn't necessarily the tact I would take.

On January 09 2015 15:06 Silverarte wrote:
I was asked to give scum reads and why. Also, I couldn't find any questions directed towards me that Soultin said were around, so if I missed them, I apologize and please redirect me so I can? I did find a few posts that I assume people were expecting responses from me on, so let's see if I manage that here.
Current Scum Reads:
Celesial and LS

LS - if you don't mind, I'm not going to beat this horse into the ground anymore. I'd like to see what LS comes back with tomorrow, if anything. If you need me to expound on this, I certainly can but I don't really want to make everyone reread what they've already seen. I can put up the reasons I support this if anyone really wants to see them.

Celestial - First off, I've been reading and rereading ExO's and Shining's points. While I do believe Celestial is expecting me to defend myself to calling me a liar, Shining got the defense out before I did. Some of you might say that is convienent, and admittedly, it is. But let me add a few things from this newbie mafia player in your group.


Firstly: ExO makes a great point. You may not have lied, but there are levels of inconsistency in your votes. LS --> Jarjar ---->LS. While LS seems to have generally given up on defending himself, you're pretty active (which is great!), so let's keep going.
Secondly:, Celestial did not post substance on one of his Scum claims til Tubeshock insisted on it. Loudly. Then we got something. And then guess who's first...Shining! Then...Rsoultin? Now, admittedly, I caught this post below but still. Why these two? You've made a good case to support your claim, but while Shining has been in and out of the scum radar, Rsoultin was not a strong case for you previously (or so I thought!). Admittedly, she was suspicious for you, but why suddenly these coming to the forefront?

Now, I'm fine with a vote change..but are Shining and Rsoultin honestly your top picks now? I know they were always on your radar, but top?


Thirdly: Hmm. Quite honestly, your posts are reading like lashing out. While this game is emotionally charged, what is there to suddenly get frustrated with? Why get frustrated with a scum read and someone wanting them? I'm given to understand that's par for the course.

None of it's personal guys. You're fantastic! But....I was asked and here it shall be!

On January 09 2015 17:03 jarjarbinks wrote:
OK quick rundown of the why on this post. I'm worried I might miss the EOD because of work because its been pretty busy as of late xD Christmas is definitely over! Chances me missing it ARE slim though.

I'm giving my top three lynch targets. They are the same as before. I'm attaching percentages to them. This is % chance they are mafia in my book. 27% (3/10 +/- 3%) is the lowest % you can have. I'm attaching mini-normal % increases based on how the dead voted and giving myself a 3% buffer for on my opinions of their play so far.

1. LS- 46%. 14% increase based on dead votes and a 2% increase based on today's play and the day 1 claim. I still sympathize with LS, but that's why I'm using equations over my feelings. One of the cases I saw with LS in also had everyone on LS's balls for almost the whole game (at least based off votes).

2. Shining- 39%. 9% increase based on dead votes. 0% on my opinions of the 2 days play.

3. Tube Sock- 38%. 11% increase based on dead votes. 3% decrease based on play. The early waffle vote on tube hurt tube a lot. I also wonder if waffle wasn't under pressure, if he would have kept the tube vote. But I have really liked tube's play today. I liked his theory, however flawed it was.

My estimate is very flawed. I only have 2 past cases of voting history to go on as of now. I also haven't really attributed any points towards good voting. But it's all I've got, besides my opinions.

If I make it back before the votes, count on me switching my vote from LS to a bandwagon I agree with IF my vote is alone AND I can use my vote to lynch someone on this list. I'm providing my %'s of everyone else if you are curious, not explaining them though because its 3 in the morning. Hope this helps understand my thoughts.

4. Gumdrop 33%
5. Silverarte 33%
6. Celestial 32%
7. Rsoultin 31%
8. Exo 30%
9. HTS 28%

On January 09 2015 23:33 LightningStrike wrote:
Rsoultin this was the post where you said you wouldn't mind going a Celestial train:

This was my post where I tried to appeal to you:

At the time of my post ExO and I were on Celestial but sadly you weren't here >.<

On January 10 2015 01:00 -Celestial- wrote:
Oh. And if you MUST know...I'm the Doc. I put the N1 save on ExO because he was my top townread, he's posting good stuff but is also kinda quiet so I figured he might be an easy target for the NK since the bigger talkers are the more obvious medic saves.

Yes, it was trying to double-guess the mafia team somewhat but it seemed a good idea at the time.

Not that it matters now anyway.

On January 10 2015 04:38 rsoultin wrote:
...

Came home to change for the going-away. Fortunately.

@Celeste if Scum (as I suspect)
Great move. Hard-claiming doc where any sensible doc won't CC, and you can pick off an unsensible one Night 2.

@Celeste if Town
You deserve every ounce of condescension before and that will continue coming your way for hardclaiming doctor with a strong counterwagon and over 8 hours to go. Truly an idiotic move. I hope your save is worth it. Truly. You're fing useless to us now and even if scum doesn't kill you Night 2 town is likely to Day 3. Thanks for throwing the game.

Bah >< I have to treat his claim like it's the truth.

##vote: friggin LS

LS, dude, if you have a case on anyone make it now. I'll try to get back from the going-away soon enough to review it. -_-

On January 10 2015 09:05 ExO_ wrote:
LS I hope you look over your gameplay. As town you have to make reads on people. You started off just being "everybody's town lets be friends" and then when called out for it you couldn't make reads except to piggy back off of what others said.

:/

On January 10 2015 09:18 ExO_ wrote:
There is something. I was debating whether or not to say this in public, but Celestial should die tonight right? Except mafia may leave him alive then push a lynch on him the next day for not dying.

On January 10 2015 09:20 ExO_ wrote:
Also barring a doctor save tomorrow will be lylo. So if we have a cop, tomorrow he has to reveal and clear a few names.

On January 10 2015 09:21 rsoultin wrote:
I already said it in a fit, and I think Tube did, too, and I would really want to lynch Celestial if he's still around -_-

Now that I've cooled down, don't think that pushing anyone blindly with our track record would be a good idea. -_-

On January 10 2015 09:38 Tubesock wrote:
I'm never playing another newbie game ever. The next game I play with LightningStrike my entrance to the game will be

##Vote: LightningStrike

On January 10 2015 12:51 The Shining wrote:
Okay guys, look. It is impossible for there to be a doc and a vet in a newbie game, or really any normal mini game. The idea of a vet and doc in the game breaks the balance in Town's favor. Mafia night one would have a 2/9 CHANCE of not having their shot count. After they hit vet their shot could still be blocked by doc putting them into an unwinnable situation. So just balance-wise, it's impossible to have both a doc and vet.

Also, the way Celestial claimed doc is very scum-favored. It diverts a lynch without having to prove anything. There was no hinting or bread crumbing, or even pushing another lynch(why would you? You knew the other wagon was town). This is an open game and Doc is the easiest thing to claim to save yourself from a lynch. Add this to the fact that our vet already flipped and it leads me to believe that there IS no doc.

Celestial HAS to be the lynch tomorrow.

On January 10 2015 13:29 rsoultin wrote:
mmm

The argument does have some merit, but the problem is I'm already disinclined to believe Celestial anyway. I don't know that speculation on the balance of the game should be the deciding factor when a mislynch means a town loss.

There are likely three scum. Celestial, if scum, can be disregarded while the others are hunted down.

On January 10 2015 14:15 rsoultin wrote:
Also, JarJar...when you said that you were trying to "scumread" the 5 on the WW lynch...with scumread in quotes just like that...

Does that mean you were deliberately making cases against 5 players just to make scum cases? I really didn't notice this before, but it legitimately looks like you were contriving the reads on purpose for the sake of making them rather than because you actually believed them...

Not only that but you outright lied to me. You lied about having those cases made already, which makes it look like you wanted a reason just to throw one my direction. You lied about using your computer vs. your phone. You probably lied about your work hours...2200? No Lt in an office full of civilians crunching numbers works till 2200. Lie after lie.

I don't see reads on Celestial or ExO anywhere really from you. That nullish post. Then saying Celestial is good at making cases (BS, btw, he stole most of the points on Shining from others and emulated your word diarrhea to say the same things on me he'd been saying while making it look like his case had more substance by sheer volume). Finally in your numbers which you didn't explain for people despite their asking you, you buried them in your town list. So LS' death suddenly makes ExO a good lynch?

Auto lynch the player that the scummy mislynched towns were scumreading? Please tell me you at least attempted to evaluate his play first, and vet LS' case?

On January 10 2015 16:17 Tubesock wrote:
Geript and Sickucker are mafia coaches. I don't know Geript, but I know Sicklucker is one tricky devious mother fucker.

How important is it for mafia to kill the doc if they have a roleblocker? I don't know the validity of the no vet & doc idea, but I don't really care either. It's safer to play it in the most conservative way I think.

What is our risk if we don't lynch Celestial Day 3? We won't listen to a word he says. He wastes a roleblock night action every night or mafia risks a save.

If mafia knows/thinks we lynch Celestial Day 3, why on earth would they kill him tonight? They can kill a strong town, and if he is in fact a doc we lynch him for mafia the next day. It's lose/lose for town.

If he is mafia and we don't lynch him immediately, it will allow mafia to freely try to roleblock our blues that are still alive. I think that's worth the risk. Course the way my luck is going, my next wagon will be on another blue.

ExO, Rsoultin, Half The Sky. Please, please tell me if I have flawed thinking here. If this is a sound plan, are you guys willing to pledge to wait a day to lynch Celestial? I will sheep your decision.

Celestial, if this plan is vetted by the above, you may only post once per phase to avoid modkill and it shall say "I'm sorry." If there is a night where there is a save, we will reevaluate your posting privileges. If you don't agree to this, you will learn what real condescension is.

On January 10 2015 16:41 Half the Sky wrote:


If you're in MYLO/LYLO you should go for whoever you are most sure of to be scum, why take a shot at someone you aren't as sure of? That's the risk right there.

The medic gains information every night through their saves, so faced with a decision, scum should be killing him particularly getting closer to lylo. I mentioned before that they have the most hard info through their actions.

Regardless, Celestial had good reason to be scumread pre-claim.

On January 10 2015 23:36 Half the Sky wrote:


JJB, a few more questions on your equations and how you applied them. You scumread LS based on the (I assume?) VT claim. Did his post-lynch comments have any bearing on your rating?

Shining question I asked before, but will ask again, he's since posted, and you're saying you have no alignment indicative information?

You also have different increases based on dead votes, and from D1 voting, Shining, LS, Tube and Silver all voted Waffle. and you have Silver at a max 6% increase based on dead voting, Rasputin even less. You say you are using numbers, but you would think, when they all vote the same person, why are the percentages different (in bold)? [/QUOTE

On January 11 2015 06:25 Tubesock wrote:
This is what I want to do.

I see that I can not get Jarjar to interact with me. This isn't really alignment indicative. It's pretty obvious, if he does, there are high odds he gets pressured enough to die. I think Jarjar is scum. I even made an algorithm.

I dug out my commodore 64 and inputted a complex algorithm for measuring probabilities. It's complex but foolproof.

I input scenario X and it will compare the probability of said scenario with the probability of me shitting out monkeys that fly, piss rainbows and shit a mixture of gold, shit, and bunnies for my morning constitution. My algorithm will also give a % of X with % breakdowns of the flying monkey shit's composition.

I asked it what the probability of Jarjar being town. It reported a 46% less chance of flying, rainbow pissing, goldshitbunny pooping monkeys that come out of my bowels during my next morning constitution.

The gold shit bunny ratio was 39%, 38%, 33%.

That may have been mean. Sorry. I respect you enough to think it's funny, and not be so fragile that some anonymous asshole on the internet can randomly hurt you in a silly ( but AWESOME!!!) forum game.

I also am investigating Silverarte. Although, I maybe nitpicking. I see no town motivation in her play. No initiative, no hunting. If someone didn't tell her what to post, she wouldn't know.

Rsoultin and Half the Sky are confirmed town until I know what JJB and Silver flip. JJB and Silver are by far the highest percentage of mafia in this game. I checked my algorithm. It's science, you can't argue with science.

ExO_ is town for those same reasons plus this:

On January 11 2015 09:40 -Celestial- wrote:
If anyone is wondering why I put the save on rsoultin: she's been talking a lot and in the last few pages has been saying not to lynch me D3 because its easier to just ignore me.

Consequently if they weren't actually going to kill ME then the next obvious target would seem to be her. Which quiets a voice saying I shouldn't be lynched D3. Expect the mafia to push my lynch hard today.

On January 11 2015 09:55 Tubesock wrote:
The biggest problem to the ExO_ lynch for me is that he's been helpful.

Before Scott131337, the only people who I felt were helpful to me were ExO_, HTS, and Rsoultin.

The people who are unhelpful to me were:

-Celestial-, Jarjar, Shining, Silverarte, and Gumdrops.

I'd prefer to lynch Silverarte today. Let's keep the ExO and Shining conversation going though.

On January 11 2015 10:28 ExO_ wrote:
The Shining
Half the Sky
jarjarbinks
scott31337
Silverarte
ExO_
-Celestial-
Tubesock

This is the remaining players. Out of these:

Myself, HTS, Tubesock have all been very active and helpful.

Celestial is still a question mark in my mind.

Leaving:

JarJar, Shining, scott, Silverate

I think the lynch has to be one of those 4. b/c scott was the inactive gumdrops it's hard for me to see lynching him right off the bat.

Silverate has posted next to nothing.

Jarjar is impossible for me to read: He isn't very articulate and I've largely ignored what he has to say. But my impression as of this moment without filter diving isn't that he's scum, it's that he's just pretty "meh" town

Shining had a lot of suspicion on him day 1. Day 2 I seemed to think he was just playing poorly on day 1, and wasn't scum. But now his case needs to seriously be looked at.

Until I go filter diving, it'll be hard for me to push somebody. I feel like because we let the inactives chill so much, we're really paying for it now. I think in future games I'll be more likely to go for inactives early on, so that I won't have to wonder "is that player with almost no posts a mafia? or an inactive town?".

Anywho, I'm supposed to be playing video mafia in 30 minutes (though I suspect not enough will show up) and then I'm going to stream civ. I don't feel like doing a lot of intense reading b/c I'm depressed with the current state of this game.

On January 11 2015 10:41 Tubesock wrote:
HTS, ExO_,

I need advice.

I can't help it as on paper I know it's bad, but I think Shining is Town based on my tinfoil hat. After N2, a couple people including Rsoultin said the tinfoil hat may not be so bad.

Scott comes in with 2 posts and at first I think I can easily sheep him. Then I think that -Celestial- who is still alive, and I think is super scummy, built a case on Shining.

Rsoultin towned Jarjar who was my "strongest" scum behind Celestial minus his un-CC claim.

This leaves as the mafia team:

Celestial, Silverarte, and Scott/Gumdrops.

Rsoultin died because she's the most important player to town. For me, this gives credence to towning Jarjar. It also would theoretically set up a mlynch of ExO_.

On January 11 2015 11:12 Half the Sky wrote:


Regarding Shining, there are three different people that are scumreading him. Review the reasons why, review also when they are scumreading as their views could have changed. Scott has the (obviously) most recent case. Rasputin who is confirmed town has her reasons, and we need to crosscheck against Shining's filter for that.

Personally, my thoughts on ExO at face value (prior to the exchange with Rasputin and exploring a world where he could be scum) are that he's a low-post high content type player. To me, postcount is NOT alignment indicative in of itself, but some people here make the argument that scum tend to drop off in posting over the course of the game, which is a valid concern.

I don't know ExO's play style/meta, etc. but prior to today's exchange I did not feel any problems with him.

Additionally, in the Carol post-game, I can't remember which vet it was, but someone said there are multiple ways of scumhunting. Regardless I'm going to review the exchange between him and Rasputin and see if there are any red flags. If there are, I will point them out and simply ask.

Regarding Scott, a replacement player should always start as null until they make an impression. Gumdrop posted even less than Silverarte, but it's a new player now. and from what I can tell, I assume you are scumreading him based on POE.

I am going to judge Scott on content and if I don't like his case I will question it.

On January 11 2015 11:17 Tubesock wrote:
Even if you read Rsoultin's legacy concerning Silverarte it's like she doesn't want to insult her by calling her mafia since they are friends. There isn't a single towny word in Rsoultin's paragraph about Silver.

On January 11 2015 11:29 jarjarbinks wrote:
HTS on the equation thing

added 2% scum based on what I was thinking his quotes were at the time

I remember telling myself, I will laugh wen all of us think he's scum and he turns town. Not as funny now that we are in trouble of losing without even getting 1 right.

I'm busy but I will spin my equation stuff up and post my thoughts. Based on knowledge of it I would guess exo and shining are top 2 with a very large dropoff before #3

On January 11 2015 12:11 Half the Sky wrote:


I'm not going to put words in JJB's mouth, but my understanding it just reading his posts was by sheer ranking - LS was nr 1 so he got the vote regardless of the percentage. But I will let JJB speak for his methodology.

I want context to those numbers, trust me I am having most of the same issue you are.

On January 11 2015 12:26 jarjarbinks wrote:
Sure I can explain where I think exo and shining are in trouble.

Exo looks doubly bad for the vote LS had on him. Looks worse with the Rsoultin pseudo vote before she died. That will probably give him the most points

Shining looks bad because of the trfel vote.

on another note. HTS is probably the best person left at this game. If she doesn't get killed by mafia soon, I would be very suspicious of her.

On January 11 2015 13:04 jarjarbinks wrote:
I can look at them. I've found in this game I've been easily fooled. When I have some time to filter and read I'll come back with anything I can find.

If Shining is bad, my confidence in reading people will be definitely shot.

On January 12 2015 05:02 Silverarte wrote:
As far as Rsoultin goes: Oi woman! ><!!!

And towny words or not, Tubesock, I think it's time I probably claim with checks considering it's Mylo/Lylo (whatever it is). I'm the Cop.

My checks were on Tubesock and ExO_, both clearing as town.

The two checks are, I believe, solid. Tubesock has been continually contributing and consisitently. ExO_, unless he's the godfather, is also clear. My spidey senses say and hope he isn't! My checks said town after all!
It's said Celestial isn't a viable good push today, I question that. In a game of newbies, how unbalanced would it be if we had a veteran, doc AND cop on the towne side? Rsoultin herself pointed out how scummy Celest's claim on being a doc. Shining is definitely an option, but Celestial still reeks of scum to me.



These are great defense posts supporting a lot of Soultin said. As for myself, in a later post I wrote that:
-Celestial was inconsistent with what he's saying. ExO did a great job of pointing that out.
-What substance was there til Tube insisted on something? And then look it who came up first. Shining, then Rsoultin (who flipped town).
And a more recent one I've been considering:
-What's the best way to save your rear in this game when everyone's voting you? Claim a power role!

TLDR version:
-If I'm cop and we flipped the vet, why would we have a doc?
-My checks are supported by other's posting.
-It was clear that town (Tube, Rsoultin, so on) weren't going to mislynch Celestial today by their posting last night. Why did the mafia leave him alive?

(thoughts on Shining to come!)

On January 12 2015 05:59 Tubesock wrote:
I need to rethink things yet again.

If everyone is willing to lynch Shining, that makes me scared. He is either really bad or just not scared about talking about his end of day 1 voting panic and other mistakes. First it was, Tube tunnel was strong and then it was to save himself and then it was back to strong or whatever. If it were me, it would be both really. I'd be scared to die, AND thought the claim was fake. But I was in the tunnel so...

His post here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=31#608

He explains himself a bit. One of the things we tried defending LS for is his fearlessness in posting. Well, Shining also does that. I understand his I'm not moving from LS vote. There wasn't a world where LS looked town in any capacity. I still think I was the only one to defend him and I just ran out of energy. The only GOOD argument that he was town was that it was 9-1 or whatever the vote was. And I didn't even see that. I would have WIFOM'd it away anyway.

Shining was scummed for his weak case on LS. Well, all of us should get scum for that. He was also scummed for saying he probably won't leave either, but NO ONE gave a good reason to leave. Shining also scummed Celestial and shining even though he didn't move his vote to Celestial he still helped push. Why would he change right away? I mean I think it's pretty obvious that if you are the target of TubesockJihad you are not getting out of it easily.

I looked at just the timestamps of his posts. EoD is at 1500 for me. Much (not all but most) his posts were from 1400 - 1900 my time. There were outliers but it seemed like a pattern. Celestial's claim was outside this posting time pattern and I didn't really think that the celest wagon really took off till after Shining was posting. the Celestial had 2 votes till about 5am my time when Rsoultin and then Silver usually check in in the morning. Celestial claimed at 7:02 (well that's when I unvoted him due to the claim which I was there for).

Shining was also scummed for using meta somewhere. Well, everyone in this game is guilty of that. Not everyone can be scum.

The shining has been on constant lynch pressure since Day 1. Everyone is posting big cases on him that well are not getting me excited. Which I would think I would be.

On January 12 2015 07:27 Silverarte wrote:
I was asked what I thought of Shining. It took me a while to go through everything, from cases against him to his own posts. (And I admit it...I may have fallen asleep a bit in the little. Stupid colds. ><)

HTS's and Scott's case on Shining is pretty solid and supported. The biggest problem is Shining's lack of posts coupled with what looks like a lack of 'reasoning' behind it. Example being here that my real life gets in the way of my being able to post frequently. That said, I find the case interesting and plausible.

I really want to see more from Shining. I think he has a lot to offer when he posts. I just dislike that I have nothing more recent to go off of.

Scott, you asked me why I voted checked the two I did. First night was ExO, and I checked him for how angry his posts sounded and how scummy he was. Tubesock I checked because it felt like no one was questioning him. Or rather, his motivations. When choosing someone, I was worried about hiding in plain sight, which is what the mafia/scum we have this game are clearly doing. Admittedly, I just figured out how I could have done that after the night action time ticked down.

Tubesock? Two things. One? "Baby come back" is stuck in my head. Just saying.
Two? I'm also VERY interested in what Jarjar also has to say.

On January 12 2015 07:46 The Shining wrote:
Sigh. GG Rso.

You know what. This replacement hit the track blazing in an attempt to win for scum today. Comes in and immediately jumps on one of the easiest scumreads in the game in me. Almost every one of you have scummed me at some point or another and yet here I am. Why would scum nk me, regardless of who I'm suspicious of, if I'm on every scum list? Now they're finally pushing me to win the game. With a replacement, no less.

I can't wait until this one is over so I can see who flips scum because you guys played a good game, starting with taking advantage of my inexperience and loss of internet at work. A part of me wants to sit here and defend myself but hell, even I'm wondering if I'm scum now.

Because you know, I would definitely kill RSo after naming me her second top scumread. I love how Tube can say it was possibly done to set up ExO. I don't get that BoD though because I'm everyone's free and easy scum read. I don't have any faith whatsoever that I'll convince any of you but unfortunately I have to try because Town is about to throw this game.

I am VT. If LS, Rso, Trfel and I pulled VT, with Silver as cop, we have Celestial, HTS, Tube, Scott, ExO, JJB left. ExO and Tube are somewhat cleared by cop checks. Either both are town or one is the Godfather. Regardless, on a mylo, we need to take our best shot at scum. Both Tube and Exo have gotten numerous townreads and seem to be helping town so taking a chance on one of them is risky. After HTS diving into Rso's case against me, along with just about every post so far, I'm more convinced HTS is our safest townread.

That leaves us down to JJB, Scott, Celestial. Left me start by saying I'm not necessarily scumming all 3 of them. I thought I made a good point with my game balance argument and now that Cop claimed, I'm even less sure that Town would have a Vet, Cop AND Medic. Can someone please explain to me how that is balanced? However, RSo being killed during her questioning ExO and being the strongest opposition to a Celestial lynch today makes me think one of two possibilities, which sucks because I don't want to wind myself in circles.

1) Framing ExO and letting the mislynch of Celestial happen with no opposition. This seems to be the painfully obvious scum move, though. It almost seems too easy to figure out if I'M the one figuring it out.
2) Scum has shown that they're not stupid, up to this point. So has Celestial. It doesn't seem impossible to me that Celestial will still flip scum. . I thought I made a good point with my game balance argument and now that Cop claimed, I'm even less sure that Town would have a Vet, Cop AND Medic. Can someone please explain to me how that is balanced? However, RSo being killed during her questioning ExO and being the strongest opposition to a Celestial lynch today makes me think one of two possibilities, which sucks because I don't want to wind myself in circles.

1) Framing ExO and letting the mislynch of Celestial happen with no opposition. This seems to be the painfully obvious scum move, though. It almost seems too easy to figure out if I'M the one figuring it out.
2) Scum has shown that they're not stupid, up to this point. So has Celestial. It doesn't seem impossible to me that Celestial will still flip scum. Could they have thought ahead enough that we'd write off the ExO framing as too obvious and therefore not plausible, gaining ExO more credit and protection? And killing RSo assuming we'd follow her "Celestial is a bad lynch today" theory, gaining a little credit for a 2nd member, as well. Unfortunately I can't chalk that up to anything more than tin foil theory or pure paranoia. But at Mylo, i see no sense in holding back ANY of my thoughts.

Jar Jar was somewhat scummy to me at one point, and his numbers did confuse me, but he was never top scum for me. I also don't see the sense in him killing RSo right after she started leaning town on him. If you're scum, why kill someone who went from attacking you to possibly towning you? That being said, I need to see where his posts are at today.

As for Scott, hes a replacement. Nothing to go off besides his entrance and case on me today, which I'd like to address. Unfortunately, Tube made some of my defense points before I could, which threw me off a bit but w.e. First, my "weak" case on LS, however wrong it ended up being. I'm not sure how weak it was, considering I dove past games of his to notice his sheeping habits on batsnacks in Student Mafia emulated his sheeping RSoultins every read. As for not listening to reason to change my vote, the only other wagon was Celestial, who I was actively pushing. Since you quoted vote counts, you know LS had 7 to Celestials 1 after claiming Doc. Why would I waste my vote on a Doc claim when it would've made the count 6-2? If I didn't listen to reason to change vote, neither did 6 others.

I agree my filter isn't the biggest and it likely won't ever be. Perks of being forced to post and read on a tablet 95% of my posts. Also, what's up with the fluff post? Although I do appreciate HTS diving into RSo's case on me to make it clearer, I didn't find it necessary to quote the whole thing just to say thank you. It reads to me as "Thank you, strong town read, for elaborating a case on a townie I'd like to see die to win." Also, your reads aren't the strongest, considering you called mine weak. All of your town reads have already been strongly towned by other town reads. It seems all you had to do was run with those reads and find a thread each to back it up. Not hard when you're playing catch up.

I have no fear discussing anything and everything I've done and said up until now. I'm pretty sure if you look into my small filter, you see me address the bluehunting comment on RSo. Twice. So however wrong I may have been about her doing it and how to spot it, it was I who was being cautious of bluehunting on Day 1. And this post is my all in to help town, since I keep seeing that I'm apparently not.

Oh and no, I'm not new. However, I will admit this is the most active game I've ever played, by far. This has definitely been a learning experience for me. Seriously, though, lynch me and we lose. I'd rather not lose my first ever TL Mafia game, especially without a single scum flip.

Note: this post was written at work over the last few hours, with another tab opened up and updating the thread as I continued typing so some of my thoughts brewing while others were in response to recent posts. If anything needs clarification, please let me know.

On January 12 2015 09:16 -Celestial- wrote:


Of course its not personal. And you're actually very early, it only just ticked over midnight here for me. Thanks anyway.


Anyway since I have no way to prove credibility to anyone unless the mafia doesn't roleblock me and I hit a lucky save I'm just throwing a post in to say hi so I don't get modkilled for inactivity. I'll remember to put up a vote when everyone decides what train is going today so I don't get modkilled for that either but don't expect too much activity today. For one there's not a lot of point (since I can't prove my innocence) and for two I'm not spending a lot of time on here on my birthday. ;P

On January 12 2015 09:25 jarjarbinks wrote:
Sorry I haven't been on.
so tube and exo are good and silver is cop.

If I take silver's word (there is a godfather chance), which I am, then we have:

gum/scott
hts
shining
celestial
me (jar jar binks)

3 of us are bad. I know I'm O.K. so In my mind we have a fantastic shot at getting these scummies. I figure most of you think I'm bad because I thought both tube and exo were bad..... To you I say I AM TOWN I AM TOWN I AM TOWN!

Seriously, what do people usually do to show defense? I can scumread the others! I'll try to work on something. Don't expect it to be fantastic considering my rsoultin scumread lolz

I'll try to answer questions first if I find them in the last couple of pages.

On January 12 2015 15:23 jarjarbinks wrote:
Man Shining, I'm completely convinced you are town! Like seriously, your posts since day 1 have been very good.

These are my lists... I made one for if silver is telling the truth and one if she isn't. I didn't include either because if silver is telling the truth, she should be on the list. If she IS lying, then she definitely is mafia. I really think she is telling the truth though.

On the crap model (I gave myself a 3% buffer this time), I think the best way is to compare the numbers and see the drop-offs. This is % chance they are evil.

IF lying (there would be only 2 mafia in this list, as silver would be a 3rd):
1. Exo (54%)
2. Shining (36%)
3. Tube (33%)
4. HTS(32%)
5. Gum/Scott, Gum/Celestial (30%)
6. JarJarBinks (29% you can add or subtract 3% here. I left it at 0)

IF Silver=cop (3 mafia in this one):
1. Shining (67%)
2. HTS (64%)
3.(tie) Celestial, Gum/Scott (61%)
3. JarJarBinks (add or subtract 3% based on how you feel)
4. Exo (35%)
5. Tube (10%)

O.K. so trying to explain my thoughts derived from this. I apologize to you if this is confusing and/or it seems like I'm hiding behind numbers. Think of it like I'm literally running to them because you guys are all confusing...lol

People to look at:
EXO!
Silver copped him day 1. 1/11 chance she cops him and he's Godfather. Based on his actions, he's above a 1/3 chance! That's craaaaaazy. Look at the difference between him and Tube there. There's people scumreading Exo on here as well. LS (partially why his rank is so high in the first place) and Rsoultin both read him before they died.

Shining
I really think Shining is good guys. My model definitely doesn't. I did subtract 3% on both lists. I think I made an error on my last post of putting him at 90%. I think I added Exo's points to Shining's 65% baseline (Exo was at 9% without his points added). If someone will kill roleblock in lynch and silver gets a shot at looking at someone, this is who I would suggest. WOULD CLEAR A LOT OF THINGS UP. That on top of seeing the lynch flip could secure our victory.

HTS: I'm going to be honest, I added 3% on HTS. Is HTS being helpful? Yes. DO I think she is capable of being helpful but also steering us in the wrong direction without us knowing it. YES! 100 times yes! HTS you are very good at this game. I will probably always be suspicious of you when in doubt. Same goes with my sister... lolz


Gum/Scott: I didn't add much of anything on Gum/Scott. Honestly this is my read. Gum comes in playing 1 game before? Sees he's town. Doesn't care tooo much. He sees how everyones bashing people who can't scumread well (LS,waffle,me) and says PEACE. If he WAS mafia, the lack of suspicion despite him being inactive would prob. be enough to keep him in the game. Scott comes in and sees what he is. He sees the dire situation we are in and digs deep. He reads 58 pages of debating and makes some very good cases, trying to make an impact. All that being said, since gum never voted for anyone that died or get voted for by anyone that died, he is the townist one of us all in my model. Huh. Interesting. All that hating on inactives and got 0 votes. Instead we kill our vet and another towny both who were more active despite all the inactive hating.

ME! I hope you saw me on the lists. Move me around 3% as much as you will. If you don't like %, then pretend they are points. This is a game of golf, towniest people have the low scores. I HAVE been using numbers. Without a detailed description of my "crap" I could see why you would be suspicious. I AM TOWN (I should probably say that more...). If you lynch me, I hope you remember how I act for if we play again. I probably won't act much different, besides the scumread thing as a punishment (that got a lot of hate lolz).

Anyways, before I call it a night I wanted to talk about silver's claim. I believe her. She wasn't in trouble really, and it was a good time to claim. If there was no cop, mafia wouldn't randomly claim in my opinion. It doesn't exactly help them to have their (probably) least suspicious person claim cop with over a day to go. It could be a ploy, but it seems like you would be taking a lot of risk for not much of a reward. Plus if this is a newb game, I could see the moderator at least having veteran and cop (and medic too if that's real). More roles help us learn right? Learning might be as important as balance in this game right?

O.K. work is tomorrow for me. Gotta pay the bills lol It is raining outside, who knows I might get a delay/snowday! If not, I will try to check at b-fast and lunch as well as get home before EOD. IF all fails, I'll try to step out of work to read and vote in real fast if something crazy happens. If I find you all lynch trained me, then pretend I made this giant rant about how none of you can make any reads before you see I flip town. I would also say "better dead here then dead at the core." It would have no quotes on people or scumreads either....lolz

My vote is for Shining (but I think he's town!) for now. I really am unsure of this vote, please try to convince me that this isn't a good vote. I will change it if I think it is a good idea. Top switch targets for me would be Exo and HTS.

I hope this clears some things up when you are thinking about my thoughts. Mesa sorry for the brain power you probably lost trying to get through it all lol

On January 13 2015 02:31 scott31337 wrote:


I believe in Silverarte's Cop claim, it fits the time, makes sense. so yes, Silverarte has. I'm not a fan of her check on you though, but I'm not going to bash on it.

The Shining has stepped up as well, answered my case, and made me feel better about him.

Celestial is the Un-CC'ed doc and wasn't around much yesterday (It was his birthday). I am curious where his vote is when he returns.

JarJar was my fourth lean, but has added some scumminess to himself for the reasons I said above.