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@Celestial I don't blame you for wanting to enjoy your birthday! =D
Now for the nitty gritty. C'mon man! (When you get back). Rather than moping about "What do I do now", why don't you try to help us find the right lynch? I mean, if you're really town, that's what you should be doing.
@Jarjar Why is Shining at your top of top? (genuine curiosity. I'm looking for the part that's your opinions, not percentages). Also, just pointing out to you Jarjar..what do I gain by lying at this point? There was no motivation or push for it. I wasn't at the top of the list for anything or anyone.
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From my experience, can't sleep posts have a lot of straight thoughts to them. You explain a clear town list within this post, reasoning behind what Trfel's thoughts were, and why mafia nk'ed him. You show solid examples of why I townread you in this post. You have others as well, but this one stuck out at me the most.
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The Shining - Your tinfoil hat theory shows ExO_ as a possible godfather. Exo_ came to post once on his thoughts and has left for video mafia and another game. Do you think he's trying to skate on Silver's greencheck to victory?
Could you also tell me what you think of HTS's case? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=56#1104 I see you went over mine, and I appreciate it, but skipped over hers.
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Somewhat unrelated but I'm glad I clicked and saw which post this was. I imagine I know why Scott went with that one but I'll let him answer. Not going to make anything easier for who I think may be scum.
I am posting because I think I now know why Trfel died. As Tube mentions, he basically softreads WW, LS and myself as town but is a little unsure. He also says he is sheeping his strongest town reads in HTS and RSo onto me. That's 5 town reads, whether explicitly or hinted at. WW, LS, Rso all flipped town. I know I'm town and HTS is a strong townread.
Trfel had the game almost figured out day one. If he stuck with those reads past day one and could gain momentum, it would've been process of elimination for him. He mentions he had 100% on his reads last game. It looks like he did at the beginning of this game, too, at least on town. He only second guessed myself and LS because of RSo and HTS reads and bad play, respectively.
And it has already been brought up that one of the only things Trfel found off was no one disagreeing with Celestial's opening posts and reads. That, plus his initial correct townreads, means Celestial could've panicked and killed him before he pieced together any more.
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On January 12 2015 07:27 Silverarte wrote:
I was asked what I thought of Shining. It took me a while to go through everything, from cases against him to his own posts. (And I admit it...I may have fallen asleep a bit in the little. Stupid colds. ><)
HTS's and Scott's case on Shining is pretty solid and supported. The biggest problem is Shining's lack of posts coupled with what looks like a lack of 'reasoning' behind it. Example being here that my real life gets in the way of my being able to post frequently. That said, I find the case interesting and plausible.
I really want to see more from Shining. I think he has a lot to offer when he posts. I just dislike that I have nothing more recent to go off of.
Scott, you asked me why I voted checked the two I did. First night was ExO, and I checked him for how angry his posts sounded and how scummy he was. Tubesock I checked because it felt like no one was questioning him. Or rather, his motivations. When choosing someone, I was worried about hiding in plain sight, which is what the mafia/scum we have this game are clearly doing. Admittedly, I just figured out how I could have done that after the night action time ticked down.
Tubesock? Two things. One? "Baby come back" is stuck in my head. Just saying.
Two? I'm also VERY interested in what Jarjar also has to say.
Celestial, are you even reading the posts? >>
That said Celestial, what's "suspicious" about my claim at this point?
Who was pushing me to claim anything? Who was voting for me to be lynched? Top suspicious people are yourself and Shining. I'm safe, or was, as NK is coming up if we all survive the game to night.
So, let's try it this way.
-I feel as though you're pushing my points against you on me. Especially since other posts I've written answer that question credibly. So, that feels scummy to an extreme.
-Next, I haven't claimed under 'scummy' conditions or to save myself from a lynch train.
-It's Mylo/Lylo. We're questioning my checks over my motivation? Between the two of us, your claim was far more suspicious.
-Let's point out instead how you were ready to give up because "no one believes you" until I encouraged. Considering how late you're noticing I claimed, are you even reading the posts? This feels incredibly last ditched.
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Alright. Early work day tomorrow with an ick storm coming in, so off with me I go. >< Much love to you all and I'll pop in my vote tomorrow like I've been trying to do.
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On January 12 2015 10:59 scott31337 wrote:The Shining - Your tinfoil hat theory shows ExO_ as a possible godfather. Exo_ came to post once on his thoughts and has left for video mafia and another game. Do you think he's trying to skate on Silver's greencheck to victory? Could you also tell me what you think of HTS's case? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=56#1104 I see you went over mine, and I appreciate it, but skipped over hers.
Considering I was in that video mafia and am in the other game with him, it is hard to tell. He hasn't posted in my other game, either, but it is still possible, since he was in our video mafia chat until nice and uber late last night. He did however mention the same comp problems and excuses there that he did here. Whether it was true or for my benefit since he knows I'm here, too, I honestly can't tell. The longer he waits, though, the more suspicious I get.
As for HTS case, I thought I addressed it in my first post but I didn't make it clear who I was responding to and where. Next post I'll do that, working on it now.
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On January 12 2015 10:46 Silverarte wrote:
@Celestial I don't blame you for wanting to enjoy your birthday! =D
Now for the nitty gritty. C'mon man! (When you get back). Rather than moping about "What do I do now", why don't you try to help us find the right lynch? I mean, if you're really town, that's what you should be doing.
@Jarjar Why is Shining at your top of top? (genuine curiosity. I'm looking for the part that's your opinions, not percentages). Also, just pointing out to you Jarjar..what do I gain by lying at this point? There was no motivation or push for it. I wasn't at the top of the list for anything or anyone.
You are my favorite player in this game silver! I hope we play more games together if you like this stuff. I think I will keep playing if my sis plays and people will allow me to play with them =D
Hmm your question about Shining is hard for me to answer. I actually gave Shining a -2% for my emotional add-in (in another words I think he has acted very towny despite my model! this sounds very contradictory doesn't it?)
You gain a lot by lying. For example, as soon as you said that I automatically assumed both you are town as well as tube and exo. I can see why you picked those two to check as well, unlike celestial. But IF you are a liar, then you exonerate yourself completely as well as at least one of your counterparts. Hard for us to guess right 3 times when in the back of our minds we have already decided that 2 mafia are town. Real cop could counterclaim, but there might not even be a cop in this case.
To be EVEN MORE CONTRADICTORY, I will have my updated reads soon, but my past ones are definitely not final. I did not account for claims in my case studies because I didn't want to actually read the 100 pages of crap in each mafia game on here. For this reason, I don't see that it is right to apply those cases to a claim. I didn't do it with celestial on day 2, I don't feel I should do it here.
Also, I feel like I am being too confident in what I have found via case study. I don't have enough of them to really base everything 80%-90% of my vote on it. I'm debating whether to give myself more sway based on my thoughts and what you guys have said.
Silver, Exo, Tube, Celestial. Whats your scum list look like these days?
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To HTS on RSoultin's case, expanded.
1) It is a dead horse but for this case, I will beat it, sort of. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=31#608 That is the post where I address my start, for easy reference.
2) Easing off ExO? My tinfoil has him as Godfather lol. I never stopped suspecting him but with little that I could come up with, post wise, I was left with my own thoughts and paranoia. Then, you've got influential opinions from players like this:
On January 07 2015 06:45 Tubesock wrote:
Gumdrop, I'd love it if you explained your vote on ExO more. You're currently wasting it completely. In no world is ExO being lynched today.
I couldn't come up with anything other than my tinfoil theory for ExO. Why would I throw it against such strong convictions as that? I felt it'd make me even more suspicious than I already was.
3) This one is totally and utterly my fault. When I first signed up for this game, I was under the impression that I still had internet access at work. By the time it actually started, rules here at work had changed. I mentioned on Day 2 I believe that it was my weekend(I'm off Mondays and Tuesdays) and I'd be able to post more. Normally, I'm home and online gaming on my days off and I fully believed I would be able to. However, as I believe I also mentioned, it was my first time off since the holidays and my family kidnapped me. Then I got back to work this week Wednesday to find out no internet access on work compouter. Thursday was payday, I bought myself a new tablet after work Thursday night to have web at work. I mentioned this Friday morning, when I posted. I believe Friday night was EoD 2, as well. (I'm EST BTW, figured it might be relevant). Weekends are always busy here so I posted what little I could at work on my tablet Friday and Saturday during Night and took advantage of the slow Sunday today.
Most of the time, I had been gone so long that i was pretty much forced to only post posts defending myself and all the times I was scumread, while also bring crushed for time or distracted by work. I had to somehow get my reads out, too, but unfortunately having them all in the same post(defending myself against people who I had scumread) led to most of what I was saying being called OMGUS posts, instead of genuine reads.
4) The balance argument. Yes, I made an assumption since this is a semi open setup. I'll play out the scenario. 2/9 chance for Mafia shot to fail night one. Either Vet takes one or Doc saves. Regardless, if you have both, this means potential for multiple night saves, PLUS having to waste 2 nights on killing the Vet. Seems unbalanced.
As for those breadcrumbing and hints, I want to say I overlooked them but rereading them...for Day 1 posts, they're pretty telling. As I've mentioned before, I'm convinced the scum team is a pretty smart bunch. If I'm scum and see someone worrying about not living through the night(Celestials bolded text that HTS used to show possible hinting), I have to wonder why they're so afraid of dying. Why would mafia let one of the only players breadcrumbing live? And Celestial didn't mention blue hunting on RSo until after I did. I'm not sure if breadcrumbing with that or just sheeping my thoughts with a better explanation?
Since you pointed out scum posting tends to fall off late game, I'd like to note today is probably my most active day.
So HTS, Scott, case on me reviewed. Any more questions?
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EBWOP: To add onto 2), I had already mentioned that the only reason I even came out with my tinfoil theory today was because of Mylo and me refusing to leave any rock I think of unturned.
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EBWOP: Clarification: I mentioned that I was ON MOBILE Friday morning.
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Man Shining, I'm completely convinced you are town! Like seriously, your posts since day 1 have been very good.
These are my lists... I made one for if silver is telling the truth and one if she isn't. I didn't include either because if silver is telling the truth, she should be on the list. If she IS lying, then she definitely is mafia. I really think she is telling the truth though.
On the crap model (I gave myself a 3% buffer this time), I think the best way is to compare the numbers and see the drop-offs. This is % chance they are evil.
IF lying (there would be only 2 mafia in this list, as silver would be a 3rd):
1. Exo (54%)
2. Shining (36%)
3. Tube (33%)
4. HTS(32%)
5. Gum/Scott, Gum/Celestial (30%)
6. JarJarBinks (29% you can add or subtract 3% here. I left it at 0)
IF Silver=cop (3 mafia in this one):
1. Shining (67%)
2. HTS (64%)
3.(tie) Celestial, Gum/Scott (61%)
3. JarJarBinks (add or subtract 3% based on how you feel)
4. Exo (35%)
5. Tube (10%)
O.K. so trying to explain my thoughts derived from this. I apologize to you if this is confusing and/or it seems like I'm hiding behind numbers. Think of it like I'm literally running to them because you guys are all confusing...lol
People to look at:
EXO!
Silver copped him day 1. 1/11 chance she cops him and he's Godfather. Based on his actions, he's above a 1/3 chance! That's craaaaaazy. Look at the difference between him and Tube there. There's people scumreading Exo on here as well. LS (partially why his rank is so high in the first place) and Rsoultin both read him before they died.
Shining
I really think Shining is good guys. My model definitely doesn't. I did subtract 3% on both lists. I think I made an error on my last post of putting him at 90%. I think I added Exo's points to Shining's 65% baseline (Exo was at 9% without his points added). If someone will kill roleblock in lynch and silver gets a shot at looking at someone, this is who I would suggest. WOULD CLEAR A LOT OF THINGS UP. That on top of seeing the lynch flip could secure our victory.
HTS: I'm going to be honest, I added 3% on HTS. Is HTS being helpful? Yes. DO I think she is capable of being helpful but also steering us in the wrong direction without us knowing it. YES! 100 times yes! HTS you are very good at this game. I will probably always be suspicious of you when in doubt. Same goes with my sister... lolz
Gum/Scott: I didn't add much of anything on Gum/Scott. Honestly this is my read. Gum comes in playing 1 game before? Sees he's town. Doesn't care tooo much. He sees how everyones bashing people who can't scumread well (LS,waffle,me) and says PEACE. If he WAS mafia, the lack of suspicion despite him being inactive would prob. be enough to keep him in the game. Scott comes in and sees what he is. He sees the dire situation we are in and digs deep. He reads 58 pages of debating and makes some very good cases, trying to make an impact. All that being said, since gum never voted for anyone that died or get voted for by anyone that died, he is the townist one of us all in my model. Huh. Interesting. All that hating on inactives and got 0 votes. Instead we kill our vet and another towny both who were more active despite all the inactive hating.
ME! I hope you saw me on the lists. Move me around 3% as much as you will. If you don't like %, then pretend they are points. This is a game of golf, towniest people have the low scores. I HAVE been using numbers. Without a detailed description of my "crap" I could see why you would be suspicious. I AM TOWN (I should probably say that more...). If you lynch me, I hope you remember how I act for if we play again. I probably won't act much different, besides the scumread thing as a punishment (that got a lot of hate lolz).
Anyways, before I call it a night I wanted to talk about silver's claim. I believe her. She wasn't in trouble really, and it was a good time to claim. If there was no cop, mafia wouldn't randomly claim in my opinion. It doesn't exactly help them to have their (probably) least suspicious person claim cop with over a day to go. It could be a ploy, but it seems like you would be taking a lot of risk for not much of a reward. Plus if this is a newb game, I could see the moderator at least having veteran and cop (and medic too if that's real). More roles help us learn right? Learning might be as important as balance in this game right?
O.K. work is tomorrow for me. Gotta pay the bills lol It is raining outside, who knows I might get a delay/snowday! If not, I will try to check at b-fast and lunch as well as get home before EOD. IF all fails, I'll try to step out of work to read and vote in real fast if something crazy happens. If I find you all lynch trained me, then pretend I made this giant rant about how none of you can make any reads before you see I flip town. I would also say "better dead here then dead at the core." It would have no quotes on people or scumreads either....lolz
My vote is for Shining (but I think he's town!) for now. I really am unsure of this vote, please try to convince me that this isn't a good vote. I will change it if I think it is a good idea. Top switch targets for me would be Exo and HTS.
I hope this clears some things up when you are thinking about my thoughts. Mesa sorry for the brain power you probably lost trying to get through it all lol
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Jarjarbinks- I think you’re quite funny and will gladly play with you again. It's been a fun game. But I still want to beat you, so don't take my Crap Model jabs too seriously. 
On January 12 2015 09:58 jarjarbinks wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2015 11:34 Tubesock wrote:On January 11 2015 11:29 jarjarbinks wrote:
HTS on the equation thing
added 2% scum based on what I was thinking his quotes were at the time
I remember telling myself, I will laugh wen all of us think he's scum and he turns town. Not as funny now that we are in trouble of losing without even getting 1 right.
I'm busy but I will spin my equation stuff up and post my thoughts. Based on knowledge of it I would guess exo and shining are top 2 with a very large dropoff before #3 Can you also elaborate on how to use that information? I don't think professional numbers people and laymen see numbers in any of the same manner. + Show Spoiler +Is this the question I was avoiding?
SO. I think at the time the chances of hitting mafia were 30% if no one ever talked or derived anything from votes/nightkills. If I just randomly pulled a name out of a hat (of the 10 people alive I was talking about), then 3 times out of 10 we would hit a scum.
The additional %'s points I added were due to votes. The first day I decided that since both people that died voted and then changed to bandwagon, I figured it would work to pretend that was two different votes.
So I believe LS was in the 48ish range? hard to remember honestly. I could go look back, but I will keep going for time's sake. so 48% was the 30% plus the additional 16%. I added 2% based on my thoughts.
So lets looks at LS vs say HTS. I subtracted 2-3% on HTS so HTS was 27%. In my mind at the time, HTS had a 27% of being scum. (Looks much worse to me now obviously because there's only 4 real options left.) LS had a 48% chance. 48 vs. 27. So generally I would rather vote for LS over HTS on whatever day that was. Day 2? I think it was day 2. In my model I'm trying to be as accurate as possible. That means that my top lynch target probably won't have a 90% chance ever.+ Show Spoiler + 48% is very high for day 2 in my opinion. I definitely was on track with most of you thinking LS was bad.
I hope this cleared something up. If not ask more questions and I'll answer.
Two of his posts and 18 minutes later:
On January 12 2015 10:16 jarjarbinks wrote:+ Show Spoiler +So long story short:
My thoughts and %'s on people.
65% is the BASELINE (75% chance to land mafia with 4 people minus 10% chance of silverarte hitting godfather on exo or tube)
1. Shining 89%+ Show Spoiler +2. Celestial 67%
3. HTS 67%
4. Scott 65%
I don't have the others. I don't see a need to go down the list right now either. I will post some more later. I realize this time is the most important. I put my opinions of people in that percentage.
That was funny I don't care who you are. Now, more seriously:
On January 07 2015 02:02 jarjarbinks wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Singular posts that are suspicious to me (Ignore my lack of knowledge on the English language if you can!)- Shining- Based off 1 past game, I could see Shining’s posts on here being similar to when she was mafia last game. Really weak case though, as I’ve only played with Shining once. I could see her defending her way out of my suspicion, since it is a weak case and Shining has prodded several different people as well as defended herself in the past.
Tubesock- If I was a mafia, I would be playing like tubesock. First posts are shallowish, then stepped it up when told to. I haven’t thought his recent posts have been that great, they mostly follow up other’s ideas. It would be posts I could see myself posting if I wanted to post more. Plus he is off Celestial’s scum-list, which does worry me that he will be off other’s as well. A solid defense against my suspicion would be that tubesock is new and is now more confident in posting than he was at the beginning. He has also made analysis, just not at the level as others in my opinion. I don’t think Tubesock would be a smart day 1 lynch because I think we could figure him out later because of the amount of posts he has been posting.+ Show Spoiler +Silverarte- If I had to choose someone who was playing similar to LS that wasn’t LS it would be Silverarte. Silverarte has no relative suspicion in comparison to LS which makes me suspicious!
Gumdrop- Lack of posts. Most people have given him a pass which isn’t good in my opinion. He has gotten some votes though, despite me seeing myself as an easier target than gumdrop. A good defense against my suspicion would be his last post, which I thought was pretty good.
LS- I would file LS as suspicious but someone I would want to not lynch day 1. He has the attention of people, and he posts a lot. I think it should be easier to determine him mafia later on IF he is mafia. I think it would be easier to get backing from others as well based on what I have read on here so far.
Suspicions on collaboration (I think it would be stupid to collaborate as mafia day 1, but what do I know):
Celestial-Exo: Small hints of collaboration. If I was mafia, I think the best person to estabilish my credibility as town would be Celestial. Have generally agreed with all of their posts. Both went after LS.
Rsoultin-Silverarte-LS-me if you would like: Rsoultin generally makes good logical arguments from what I have seen from her and from personal experience. It is very easy to bandwagon her points. Silverarte, LS, and I have all done that already. Silverarte has been on her side since the beginning. You can attribute that to them being friends. LS did bandwagon on Rsoultins ideas, but you could attribute that to LS’s defense. Still worth noting for now.
People I’m generally scared of:
Celestial- Established great credibility day 1. Your writing style is very similar to a very established economist professor’s. If I was good at this game and was mafia, establishing credibility would be a top priority.
Rsoultin- Very good at prodding and generating very logical arguments against people. Which means, if mafia, would be very good at it. Can prod and generate arguments about fallacies in people’s posts remarkably well. If she is mafia, I will have a difficult time reading it and a difficult time trying to convince others of it.
People I think are least scummy:
HTS-Good analysis and limited posts make it hard for me to be suspicious.
Exo- great prodder early day and seems to be flinging scum everywhere. I would try to do this as scum (I think I’d have a better shot at this over establishing credibility lol). I also like that he tried to generate others to talk more (I’m such a hypocrite). Plus, people have been suspicious of him. That makes me a little more at ease about not being suspicious of him just in case he truly is mafia.
He’s fully capable of analyzing without his formula. He really avoided offering any reads with something we could read or use. If I were to meta it, I would give a town point though. If I were used to playing games that complete in 17 pages, I'd definitely use formulas or something over talking and behavior analysis. BUT he didn't/doesn't care enough to see how this approach doesn't work in this type of game, with these players, mechanics etc.
On January 07 2015 02:14 jarjarbinks wrote:+ Show Spoiler +List of Scum:
#1: Shining
#2: Tube
#3: Silver
#4: Waffle
#5: LS
Reread the bold in the earlier spoiler quote. He scums Shining for what reasons? Then cites what I think are much stronger reasons on me, yet I’m less scummy than Shining? What the what? He also never comes at me. I even ask him to, a couple of times. He continually avoided me. Not till now when if he doesn't he knows he dies.
Is this the part (below) where Jarjarbinks "demonstrates" towny behavior due to fearless posting?
On January 12 2015 12:27 jarjarbinks wrote:Show nested quote +On January 12 2015 10:46 Silverarte wrote:
@Celestial I don't blame you for wanting to enjoy your birthday! =D
Now for the nitty gritty. C'mon man! (When you get back). Rather than moping about "What do I do now", why don't you try to help us find the right lynch? I mean, if you're really town, that's what you should be doing.
@Jarjar Why is Shining at your top of top? (genuine curiosity. I'm looking for the part that's your opinions, not percentages). Also, just pointing out to you Jarjar..what do I gain by lying at this point? There was no motivation or push for it. I wasn't at the top of the list for anything or anyone. + Show Spoiler +You are my favorite player in this game silver! I hope we play more games together if you like this stuff. I think I will keep playing if my sis plays and people will allow me to play with them =D
Hmm your question about Shining is hard for me to answer. I actually gave Shining a -2% for my emotional add-in (in another words I think he has acted very towny despite my model! this sounds very contradictory doesn't it?) I am overwhelmed by your contradiction with that ginormous -2% correction. Whoa... Whoa. *Later revises to 3%+ Show Spoiler +You gain a lot by lying. For example, as soon as you said that I automatically assumed both you are town as well as tube and exo. I can see why you picked those two to check as well, unlike celestial. But IF you are a liar, then you exonerate yourself completely as well as at least one of your counterparts. Hard for us to guess right 3 times when in the back of our minds we have already decided that 2 mafia are town. Real cop could counterclaim, but there might not even be a cop in this case. , ...blah...blah..+ Show Spoiler +I will have my updated reads soon, but my past ones are definitely not final. I did not account for claims in my case studies because I didn't want to actually read the 100 pages of crap in each mafia game on here. For this reason, I don't see that it is right to apply those cases to a claim. I didn't do it with celestial on day 2, I don't feel I should do it here.
Also, I feel like I am being too confident in what I have found via case study. I don't have enough of them to really base everything 80%-90% of my vote on it. I'm debating whether to give myself more sway based on my thoughts and what you guys have said.
Silver, Exo, Tube, Celestial. Whats your scum list look like these days?
Obviously not reading the thread enough to have any idea what I want to see before I town someone:
On January 12 2015 10:01 jarjarbinks wrote:Show nested quote +On January 12 2015 06:24 Tubesock wrote:
Maybe JJB needs some motivation.
Vote Jarjar. Motivation to....post long posts? Answer your questions? I'm generally lost on this.
His last few posts were in a relative flurry for his activity. At least I think so. He sees town is in a desparate moment and on the cusp of losing the game. He sees this, and does want to win the game. If he were town, he'd see what we need and change his approach to try to help us win. He'd read and pay attention to the what people want. Check The Shinings posts lately. The Shining is laying it all out there. He's trying to help. Jarjar is "trying" too. "I'm generally lost on this." is basically, "I AM MAFIA! I AM MAFIA! I AM MAFIA!"
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On January 12 2015 15:23 jarjarbinks wrote:Man Shining, I'm completely convinced you are town! Like seriously, your posts since day 1 have been very good.+ Show Spoiler +These are my lists... I made one for if silver is telling the truth and one if she isn't. I didn't include either because if silver is telling the truth, she should be on the list. If she IS lying, then she definitely is mafia. I really think she is telling the truth though.
On the crap model (I gave myself a 3% buffer this time), I think the best way is to compare the numbers and see the drop-offs. This is % chance they are evil.
IF lying (there would be only 2 mafia in this list, as silver would be a 3rd):
1. Exo (54%)
2. Shining (36%)
3. Tube (33%)
4. HTS(32%)
5. Gum/Scott, Gum/Celestial (30%)
6. JarJarBinks (29% you can add or subtract 3% here. I left it at 0) IF Silver=cop (3 mafia in this one): 1. Shining (67%) 2. HTS (64%) 3.(tie) Celestial, Gum/Scott (61%) 3. JarJarBinks (add or subtract 3% based on how you feel) 4. Exo (35%) 5. Tube (10%) O.K. so trying to explain my thoughts derived from this. I apologize to you if this is confusing and/or it seems like I'm hiding behind numbers. Think of it like I'm literally running to them because you guys are all confusing...lol People to look at: *because he can't be bothered toEXO! + Show Spoiler +
Silver copped him day 1. 1/11 chance she cops him and he's Godfather. Based on his actions, he's above a 1/3 chance! That's craaaaaazy. Look at the difference between him and Tube there. There's people scumreading Exo on here as well. LS (partially why his rank is so high in the first place) and Rsoultin both read him before they died.
Shining I really think Shining is good guys. My model definitely doesn't. I did subtract 3% on both lists. I think I made an error on my last post of putting him at 90%. *89%, he did say it's impossible to hit 90% + Show Spoiler +I think I added Exo's points to Shining's 65% baseline (Exo was at 9% without his points added). If someone will kill roleblock in lynch and silver gets a shot at looking at someone, this is who I would suggest. WOULD CLEAR A LOT OF THINGS UP. That on top of seeing the lynch flip could secure our victory. HTS: + Show Spoiler +I'm going to be honest, I added 3% on HTS. Is HTS being helpful? Yes. DO I think she is capable of being helpful but also steering us in the wrong direction without us knowing it. YES! 100 times yes! HTS you are very good at this game. I will probably always be suspicious of you when in doubt. Same goes with my sister... lolz
Gum/Scott: I didn't add much of anything on Gum/Scott. Honestly this is my read. Gum comes in playing 1 game before? Sees he's town. Doesn't care tooo much. He sees how everyones bashing people who can't scumread well (LS,waffle,me) and says PEACE. If he WAS mafia, the lack of suspicion despite him being inactive would prob. be enough to keep him in the game. Scott comes in and sees what he is. He sees the dire situation we are in and digs deep. He reads 58 pages of debating and makes some very good cases, trying to make an impact. All that being said, since gum never voted for anyone that died or get voted for by anyone that died, he is the townist one of us all in my model. Huh. Interesting. All that hating on inactives and got 0 votes. Instead we kill our vet and another towny both who were more active despite all the inactive hating.
ME! I hope you saw me on the lists. Move me around 3% as much as you will. If you don't like %, then pretend they are points. This is a game of golf, towniest people have the low scores. I HAVE been using numbers. Without a detailed description of my "crap" I could see why you would be suspicious. I AM TOWN (I should probably say that more...). If you lynch me, I hope you remember how I act for if we play again. I probably won't act much different, besides the scumread thing as a punishment (that got a lot of hate lolz).
Anyways, before I call it a night I wanted to talk about silver's claim. I believe her. She wasn't in trouble really, and it was a good time to claim. If there was no cop, mafia wouldn't randomly claim in my opinion. It doesn't exactly help them to have their (probably) least suspicious person claim cop with over a day to go. It could be a ploy, but it seems like you would be taking a lot of risk for not much of a reward. Plus if this is a newb game, I could see the moderator at least having veteran and cop (and medic too if that's real). More roles help us learn right? Learning might be as important as balance in this game right?
O.K. work is tomorrow for me. Gotta pay the bills lol It is raining outside, who knows I might get a delay/snowday! If not, I will try to check at b-fast and lunch as well as get home before EOD. IF all fails, I'll try to step out of work to read and vote in real fast if something crazy happens. If I find you all lynch trained me, then pretend I made this giant rant about how none of you can make any reads before you see I flip town. I would also say "better dead here then dead at the core." It would have no quotes on people or scumreads either....lolz
My vote is for Shining (but I think he's town!) for now. I really am unsure of this vote, please try to convince me that this isn't a good vote. I will change it if I think it is a good idea. Top switch targets for me would be Exo and HTS. I hope this clears some things up when you are thinking about my thoughts. Mesa sorry for the brain power you probably lost trying to get through it all lol
I can't figure out how to set the sarcasm font up to highlight those areas. Although, I may as well select all.
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So I've been gone for a while. I stepped away from mafia for a while because it was kinda stressing me out. And to be entirely honest I was feeling lazy and felt like playing dota and civ. Unfortunately when you do this you come back to a few new pages of content and several huge posts.
I've skimmed everything. I'm sure I don't have it all down. But Silverate has claimed cop, without a counter claim. This means he will die tonight.
I really think Celestial fake claimed doctor. But I think after another day it'll become more obvious if he did or not.
Right now it looks like to me the leading lynch candidates are shining and jarjar. Could somebody give me a brief explanation of the reasoning on both?
Also if there are any questions about my actions I'll gladly answer them. I think if you look at my play It's pretty clear I am town, especially since I've been cleared by silv.
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Tube i am reading the thread enough. I dont think you would ever town me. Your last posts ddid makeme laugh tho.
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ExO - The issues I understood as follows:
JJB - issues with calculations and making sure he's not hiding behind the numbers. I see Tube has touched on a few points, I also have some followup as well.
Shining - There were issues on his activity, reads on you, his start to the game, etc. To be fair, he's answered the case, however I do have some followup with him as well.
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Shining - Regarding point #2 on ExO, I have a few followups:
1 First regarding his votes - he was on the smaller counterwagon with WW, having voted LS D1. At that time you said you were willing to give him the BOTD. Can you explain what differentiated him (at that time) throwing his vote away vs the solo voters, after you say scum like to throw away the vote after the main lynch is secured?
2 Through D2, you appeared to have townread him as you voted LS, but chalked it up to your newb play and meta reads. Today in your response to me you say you never stopped suspecting him, and you brought up the tinfoil conspiracy theory as you cited Rasputin's thoughts on him. Now Rasputin had a 90% rating on him, was there anything that jumped out at you in that exchange between those two before the daypost?
I looked at the exchanges myself, some things did appear a red flag (and I will follow up with him), some things did not to me.
I am trying and failing to follow your logic after reading, which is why I'm asking.
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JJB - your turn.
Your formulas.
1 Looking at the category where Silver is telling the truth, you have ExO and Tube at the bottom, but controlling for them possibly being GF. You say ExO's actions are more likely to make him GF. Can you expand on this?
2 Partial extension of #1 - it seems like for the other reads you have this 3% buffer based on subjectivity. You subtracted 2% from Shining for instance. Can you explain why such a small buffer for the others, but seemingly a larger one for ExO? I mean you go from 11% (or 1/11 as you say) to 35%?
That looks like a double standard to me. If something jumped out at you, please explain.
Am I reading you wrong? It seems like you are putting in numbers based on voting and scumreads?
I am struggling to find context for your numbers yet again, and by the looks of it, Tube is as well.
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@Jarjar Thanks man! I hope we get to play together again too ^^ Some of your posts have just downright made me laugh.
--Now to the reason I"m voting who I am. Sorry Jarjar. =(
Looking at your reasons, I can follow why you vote who, but you never answered my question as to why youfelt about Shining the way you did without the percentages. Reason I'm concerned about your vote is more that you voted Shining (who you think is town), but didn't look to the ones you said are more suspicious? (Like HTS?)
Nothing personal man, but you're getting my vote. =( (On the flip side, I hope you do have a good day at work!)
##Vote: Jarjarbinks
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EPT
