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I was asked what I thought of Shining. It took me a while to go through everything, from cases against him to his own posts. (And I admit it...I may have fallen asleep a bit in the little. Stupid colds. ><)
HTS's and Scott's case on Shining is pretty solid and supported. The biggest problem is Shining's lack of posts coupled with what looks like a lack of 'reasoning' behind it. Example being here that my real life gets in the way of my being able to post frequently. That said, I find the case interesting and plausible.
I really want to see more from Shining. I think he has a lot to offer when he posts. I just dislike that I have nothing more recent to go off of.
Scott, you asked me why I voted checked the two I did. First night was ExO, and I checked him for how angry his posts sounded and how scummy he was. Tubesock I checked because it felt like no one was questioning him. Or rather, his motivations. When choosing someone, I was worried about hiding in plain sight, which is what the mafia/scum we have this game are clearly doing. Admittedly, I just figured out how I could have done that after the night action time ticked down.
Tubesock? Two things. One? "Baby come back" is stuck in my head. Just saying.
Two? I'm also VERY interested in what Jarjar also has to say.
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Also HTS, I did see what you said after my claim. I see what you're saying, but I still am 'eh' on Celestial.
(Nothing personal Celestial! And a belated happy birthday!)
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Sigh. GG Rso.
You know what. This replacement hit the track blazing in an attempt to win for scum today. Comes in and immediately jumps on one of the easiest scumreads in the game in me. Almost every one of you have scummed me at some point or another and yet here I am. Why would scum nk me, regardless of who I'm suspicious of, if I'm on every scum list? Now they're finally pushing me to win the game. With a replacement, no less.
I can't wait until this one is over so I can see who flips scum because you guys played a good game, starting with taking advantage of my inexperience and loss of internet at work. A part of me wants to sit here and defend myself but hell, even I'm wondering if I'm scum now.
Because you know, I would definitely kill RSo after naming me her second top scumread. I love how Tube can say it was possibly done to set up ExO. I don't get that BoD though because I'm everyone's free and easy scum read. I don't have any faith whatsoever that I'll convince any of you but unfortunately I have to try because Town is about to throw this game.
I am VT. If LS, Rso, Trfel and I pulled VT, with Silver as cop, we have Celestial, HTS, Tube, Scott, ExO, JJB left. ExO and Tube are somewhat cleared by cop checks. Either both are town or one is the Godfather. Regardless, on a mylo, we need to take our best shot at scum. Both Tube and Exo have gotten numerous townreads and seem to be helping town so taking a chance on one of them is risky. After HTS diving into Rso's case against me, along with just about every post so far, I'm more convinced HTS is our safest townread.
That leaves us down to JJB, Scott, Celestial. Left me start by saying I'm not necessarily scumming all 3 of them. I thought I made a good point with my game balance argument and now that Cop claimed, I'm even less sure that Town would have a Vet, Cop AND Medic. Can someone please explain to me how that is balanced? However, RSo being killed during her questioning ExO and being the strongest opposition to a Celestial lynch today makes me think one of two possibilities, which sucks because I don't want to wind myself in circles.
1) Framing ExO and letting the mislynch of Celestial happen with no opposition. This seems to be the painfully obvious scum move, though. It almost seems too easy to figure out if I'M the one figuring it out.
2) Scum has shown that they're not stupid, up to this point. So has Celestial. It doesn't seem impossible to me that Celestial will still flip scum. . I thought I made a good point with my game balance argument and now that Cop claimed, I'm even less sure that Town would have a Vet, Cop AND Medic. Can someone please explain to me how that is balanced? However, RSo being killed during her questioning ExO and being the strongest opposition to a Celestial lynch today makes me think one of two possibilities, which sucks because I don't want to wind myself in circles.
1) Framing ExO and letting the mislynch of Celestial happen with no opposition. This seems to be the painfully obvious scum move, though. It almost seems too easy to figure out if I'M the one figuring it out.
2) Scum has shown that they're not stupid, up to this point. So has Celestial. It doesn't seem impossible to me that Celestial will still flip scum. Could they have thought ahead enough that we'd write off the ExO framing as too obvious and therefore not plausible, gaining ExO more credit and protection? And killing RSo assuming we'd follow her "Celestial is a bad lynch today" theory, gaining a little credit for a 2nd member, as well. Unfortunately I can't chalk that up to anything more than tin foil theory or pure paranoia. But at Mylo, i see no sense in holding back ANY of my thoughts.
Jar Jar was somewhat scummy to me at one point, and his numbers did confuse me, but he was never top scum for me. I also don't see the sense in him killing RSo right after she started leaning town on him. If you're scum, why kill someone who went from attacking you to possibly towning you? That being said, I need to see where his posts are at today.
As for Scott, hes a replacement. Nothing to go off besides his entrance and case on me today, which I'd like to address. Unfortunately, Tube made some of my defense points before I could, which threw me off a bit but w.e. First, my "weak" case on LS, however wrong it ended up being. I'm not sure how weak it was, considering I dove past games of his to notice his sheeping habits on batsnacks in Student Mafia emulated his sheeping RSoultins every read. As for not listening to reason to change my vote, the only other wagon was Celestial, who I was actively pushing. Since you quoted vote counts, you know LS had 7 to Celestials 1 after claiming Doc. Why would I waste my vote on a Doc claim when it would've made the count 6-2? If I didn't listen to reason to change vote, neither did 6 others.
I agree my filter isn't the biggest and it likely won't ever be. Perks of being forced to post and read on a tablet 95% of my posts. Also, what's up with the fluff post? Although I do appreciate HTS diving into RSo's case on me to make it clearer, I didn't find it necessary to quote the whole thing just to say thank you. It reads to me as "Thank you, strong town read, for elaborating a case on a townie I'd like to see die to win." Also, your reads aren't the strongest, considering you called mine weak. All of your town reads have already been strongly towned by other town reads. It seems all you had to do was run with those reads and find a thread each to back it up. Not hard when you're playing catch up.
I have no fear discussing anything and everything I've done and said up until now. I'm pretty sure if you look into my small filter, you see me address the bluehunting comment on RSo. Twice. So however wrong I may have been about her doing it and how to spot it, it was I who was being cautious of bluehunting on Day 1. And this post is my all in to help town, since I keep seeing that I'm apparently not.
Oh and no, I'm not new. However, I will admit this is the most active game I've ever played, by far. This has definitely been a learning experience for me. Seriously, though, lynch me and we lose. I'd rather not lose my first ever TL Mafia game, especially without a single scum flip.
Note: this post was written at work over the last few hours, with another tab opened up and updating the thread as I continued typing so some of my thoughts brewing while others were in response to recent posts. If anything needs clarification, please let me know.
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EBWOP wow my tablet really fucked that post for me. I copied up to a certain point in case I lost my post and it looks like my tablet pasted it right into the middle of my post. Unfortunately I can't edit it sooooo... Yeah.
Also, the paragraph containing the "what's up with the fluff post" question was directed at Scott.
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Tinfoil hat time.
-Celestial- is the Godfather.
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Shining, are you going to post the rest of your post? Is there more coming or you ready for questions?
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And THAT, Shining, is why I wanted to wait for your post!
Tubesock, I'm totally holding onto my tinfoil hat here too. I'm agreeing with you.
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(And same question as Tube. Is there more?)
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On January 12 2015 07:46 The Shining wrote:Sigh. GG Rso. You know what. This replacement hit the track blazing in an attempt to win for scum today. Comes in and immediately jumps on one of the easiest scumreads in the game in me. Almost every one of you have scummed me at some point or another and yet here I am. Why would scum nk me, regardless of who I'm suspicious of, if I'm on every scum list? Now they're finally pushing me to win the game. With a replacement, no less. yes, but he has absolutely no choice. In no way would he be able to enter without some substance either town or mafia.+ Show Spoiler +I can't wait until this one is over so I can see who flips scum because you guys played a good game, starting with taking advantage of my inexperience and loss of internet at work. A part of me wants to sit here and defend myself but hell, even I'm wondering if I'm scum now. Because you know, I would definitely kill RSo after naming me her second top scumread. I love how Tube can say it was possibly done to set up ExO. I don't get that BoD though because I'm everyone's free and easy scum read. I don't have any faith whatsoever that I'll convince any of you but unfortunately I have to try because Town is about to throw this game. Very paranoid. What's BoD? In my Shining defense post I made the point bolded above. It will require more work from you to clear yourself however. You do have some support. + Show Spoiler +I am VT. If LS, Rso, Trfel and I pulled VT, with Silver as cop, we have Celestial, HTS, Tube, Scott, ExO, JJB left. ExO and Tube are somewhat cleared by cop checks. Either both are town or one is the Godfather. Regardless, on a mylo, we need to take our best shot at scum. Both Tube and Exo have gotten numerous townreads and seem to be helping town so taking a chance on one of them is risky. After HTS diving into Rso's case against me, along with just about every post so far, I'm more convinced HTS is our safest townread.
That leaves us down to JJB, Scott, Celestial. Left me start by saying I'm not necessarily scumming all 3 of them. I thought I made a good point with my game balance argument and now that Cop claimed, I'm even less sure that Town would have a Vet, Cop AND Medic. Can someone please explain to me how that is balanced? However, RSo being killed during her questioning ExO and being the strongest opposition to a Celestial lynch today makes me think one of two possibilities, which sucks because I don't want to wind myself in circles. 1) Framing ExO and letting the mislynch of Celestial happen with no opposition. This seems to be the painfully obvious scum move, though. It almost seems too easy to figure out if I'M the one figuring it out. uhh...I feel like I was opposing the Celestial lynch as well...well for today anyway. Unless I'm mistaken HTS agrees.+ Show Spoiler +2) Scum has shown that they're not stupid, up to this point. So has Celestial. It doesn't seem impossible to me that Celestial will still flip scum. . I thought I made a good point with my game balance argument and now that Cop claimed, I'm even less sure that Town would have a Vet, Cop AND Medic. Can someone please explain to me how that is balanced? However, RSo being killed during her questioning ExO and being the strongest opposition to a Celestial lynch today makes me think one of two possibilities, which sucks because I don't want to wind myself in circles.
1) Framing ExO and letting the mislynch of Celestial happen with no opposition. This seems to be the painfully obvious scum move, though. It almost seems too easy to figure out if I'M the one figuring it out. 2) Scum has shown that they're not stupid, up to this point. So has Celestial. It doesn't seem impossible to me that Celestial will still flip scum. Could they have thought ahead enough that we'd write off the ExO framing as too obvious and therefore not plausible, gaining ExO more credit and protection? And killing RSo assuming we'd follow her "Celestial is a bad lynch today" theory, gaining a little credit for a 2nd member, as well. Unfortunately I can't chalk that up to anything more than tin foil theory or pure paranoia. But at Mylo, i see no sense in holding back ANY of my thoughts. expand a little more on this. You know I love tin foil hats.+ Show Spoiler +Jar Jar was somewhat scummy to me at one point, and his numbers did confuse me, but he was never top scum for me. I also don't see the sense in him killing RSo right after she started leaning town on him. If you're scum, why kill someone who went from attacking you to possibly towning you? That being said, I need to see where his posts are at today.
As for Scott, hes a replacement. Nothing to go off besides his entrance and case on me today, which I'd like to address. Unfortunately, Tube made some of my defense points before I could, which threw me off a bit but w.e. First, my "weak" case on LS, however wrong it ended up being. I'm not sure how weak it was, considering I dove past games of his to notice his sheeping habits on batsnacks in Student Mafia emulated his sheeping RSoultins every read. As for not listening to reason to change my vote, the only other wagon was Celestial, who I was actively pushing. Since you quoted vote counts, you know LS had 7 to Celestials 1 after claiming Doc. Why would I waste my vote on a Doc claim when it would've made the count 6-2? If I didn't listen to reason to change vote, neither did 6 others. What threw you off about me defending you? Everyone's case on LS was weak...he died town. As for your vote, they were talking about a specific quote basically saying you would not change without a defense and probably not even then. I also defended you on this point, well except the underlined portion really.+ Show Spoiler +I agree my filter isn't the biggest and it likely won't ever be. Perks of being forced to post and read on a tablet 95% of my posts. Also, what's up with the fluff post? Although I do appreciate HTS diving into RSo's case on me to make it clearer, I didn't find it necessary to quote the whole thing just to say thank you. It reads to me as "Thank you, strong town read, for elaborating a case on a townie I'd like to see die to win." Also, your reads aren't the strongest, considering you called mine weak. All of your town reads have already been strongly towned by other town reads. It seems all you had to do was run with those reads and find a thread each to back it up. Not hard when you're playing catch up. I have no fear discussing anything and everything I've done and said up until now. + Show Spoiler + I'm pretty sure if you look into my small filter, you see me address the bluehunting comment on RSo. Twice. So however wrong I may have been about her doing it and how to spot it, it was I who was being cautious of bluehunting on Day 1. And this post is my all in to help town, since I keep seeing that I'm apparently not. I thank you for the all in. I must reiterate incase you think this is enough, that we do need some more. If you can answer more questions that would rock. Be around a little more, talk a little more, bleed town a little more. If you are town, it should be easy to show. You obviously know enough to what a towny looks like. + Show Spoiler +Oh and no, I'm not new. However, I will admit this is the most active game I've ever played, by far. This has definitely been a learning experience for me. Seriously, though, lynch me and we lose. I'd rather not lose my first ever TL Mafia game, especially without a single scum flip.
Note: this post was written at work over the last few hours, with another tab opened up and updating the thread as I continued typing so some of my thoughts brewing while others were in response to recent posts. If anything needs clarification, please let me know.
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One thing Shining. You are not clear. What is your scum team.
1. ?
2. ?
3. ?
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On January 12 2015 07:30 Silverarte wrote:
(Nothing personal Celestial! And a belated happy birthday!)
Of course its not personal. And you're actually very early, it only just ticked over midnight here for me. Thanks anyway. 
Anyway since I have no way to prove credibility to anyone unless the mafia doesn't roleblock me and I hit a lucky save I'm just throwing a post in to say hi so I don't get modkilled for inactivity. I'll remember to put up a vote when everyone decides what train is going today so I don't get modkilled for that either but don't expect too much activity today. For one there's not a lot of point (since I can't prove my innocence) and for two I'm not spending a lot of time on here on my birthday. ;P
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Not really more. I am sure that as the Day progresses, I'll come up with more but right now, I'm good answering anything you've got for me.
I do agree that he needed to enter with substance, I was just simply pointing out that, from my POV, killing the most scumread townie is the best play for him if he is in fact scum.
BoD = benefit of the doubt. Someone on day 1 or 2 acronym'd it and I liked it lol. Also, if you can't tell, the beginning of my post was almost giving up. I mentioned it was a running post. That section was written before I saw your defense post but I have no real way to prove that except to point out that, during my post, there is a change in tone. I started off frustrated at where I stood in everyone's eyes. After the venting, I realized it was helping nothing so I said I'd give it one last shot instead of giving up.
The Celestial mislynch comment was misunderstood. I wasn't trying to say I was the first or only one to come up with it, just taking a jab at my poor play by saying even someone playing as badly as I have can logically follow that train of thought to that conclusion.
Tin foil time, since Tube asked. Basically, it has ExO as Godfather, Celestial as mafia/RB and either JJB or Gumdrop/Scott as 3rd. ExO asked a question knowing it wouldn't be answered by EoN because RSo was going to die. Her hardest push before death was ExO at 90%. It is so painfully obvious if Mafia killed her to stop her pushing ExO's lynch that it isn't plausible because i would normally think ExO is too smart to make that mistaske and frame himself as scum if he actually is scum. So he makes himself look so scummy with thr NK that he cant be scum. As I've said before, playing with ExO numerous times means I know better than to put that past him. By that same logic, Celestial also agreeing with ExO(hypothetically, this is still tinfoil) on killing RSo makes sense. RSo said Celestial wasn't a good lynch today. So killing the person against the Celestial lynch means the Mafia wants us to lynch Celestial. We don't want to do what the Mafia wants us to so we won't lynch Cell today. If they thought all of that through, they kill RSoultin to ensure we follow her logic of not lynching Celestial, saving their scum member in the process. /endtinfoiltheory
Like I said, I likely wouldve scumread myself if I played with myself. So it could just be paranoia but I feel weird when anyone defends me after bad play. Lol. And I was so convinced that LS would flip scum that I couldn't see any other viable candidates at the time of that post. I thought me not shying away from a vote would look good if he flipped scum. I did also try to case against Celestial but with the unCC claim, I saw no point in changing my vote or pushing for a mass vote change. If anything, I felt that'd be highly out of character and, since people were toying with the idea of both of us being scum if one flipped scum, it would just look like me trying to save a scumbuddy, since I was convinced he would flip scum anyway.
Granted, I'm at work and on this tablet so you can expect the gaps in responses to be about the time between Tube's questions and the time of this post, since that is the most recent post as I write this. I'll read on from there now to see if anything else needs answering, clarification or something. I also apologize for not being able to pick it up more earlier in the game.
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Sorry I haven't been on.
so tube and exo are good and silver is cop.
If I take silver's word (there is a godfather chance), which I am, then we have:
gum/scott
hts
shining
celestial
me (jar jar binks)
3 of us are bad. I know I'm O.K. so In my mind we have a fantastic shot at getting these scummies. I figure most of you think I'm bad because I thought both tube and exo were bad..... To you I say I AM TOWN I AM TOWN I AM TOWN!
Seriously, what do people usually do to show defense? I can scumread the others! I'll try to work on something. Don't expect it to be fantastic considering my rsoultin scumread lolz
I'll try to answer questions first if I find them in the last couple of pages.
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Responding to Tube about my scumreads:
I gave you my top 4 with the tinfoil theory I have. Honestly, having played with ExO is really making it hard for me to not believe there's some free to it. If I had to drop one of those 4, it'd be JJB because I have nothing alignment indicative on him today. That, plus I'm still not able to piece out why JJB would kill RSo after RSo eased up on him. So tinfoil mafia: ExO, Celestial, Gumdrop/Scott.
It doesn't help that ExO continuously posts excuse after excuse while still being present in the thread. He asks questions, seems to help out the town and tries to figure out the game, gives good reads and then wraps it up with computer problems. Or traveling. Or some other excuse. Why so many excuses if you're still posting more frequently than someone like, say, me? Is it to have some plausible deniability to avoid an uncomfortable question or situation when needed?
Sidenote: happy birthday Celestial!
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On January 11 2015 11:34 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2015 11:29 jarjarbinks wrote:
HTS on the equation thing
added 2% scum based on what I was thinking his quotes were at the time
I remember telling myself, I will laugh wen all of us think he's scum and he turns town. Not as funny now that we are in trouble of losing without even getting 1 right.
I'm busy but I will spin my equation stuff up and post my thoughts. Based on knowledge of it I would guess exo and shining are top 2 with a very large dropoff before #3 Can you also elaborate on how to use that information? I don't think professional numbers people and laymen see numbers in any of the same manner.
Is this the question I was avoiding?
SO. I think at the time the chances of hitting mafia were 30% if no one ever talked or derived anything from votes/nightkills. If I just randomly pulled a name out of a hat (of the 10 people alive I was talking about), then 3 times out of 10 we would hit a scum.
The additional %'s points I added were due to votes. The first day I decided that since both people that died voted and then changed to bandwagon, I figured it would work to pretend that was two different votes.
So I believe LS was in the 48ish range? hard to remember honestly. I could go look back, but I will keep going for time's sake. so 48% was the 30% plus the additional 16%. I added 2% based on my thoughts.
So lets looks at LS vs say HTS. I subtracted 2-3% on HTS so HTS was 27%. In my mind at the time, HTS had a 27% of being scum. (Looks much worse to me now obviously because there's only 4 real options left.) LS had a 48% chance. 48 vs. 27. So generally I would rather vote for LS over HTS on whatever day that was. Day 2? I think it was day 2.
In my model I'm trying to be as accurate as possible. That means that my top lynch target probably won't have a 90% chance ever. 48% is very high for day 2 in my opinion. I definitely was on track with most of you thinking LS was bad.
I hope this cleared something up. If not ask more questions and I'll answer.
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On January 12 2015 06:24 Tubesock wrote:
Maybe JJB needs some motivation.
Vote Jarjar.
Motivation to....post long posts? Answer your questions? I'm generally lost on this.
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So long story short:
My thoughts and %'s on people.
65% is the BASELINE (75% chance to land mafia with 4 people minus 10% chance of silverarte hitting godfather on exo or tube)
1. Shining 89%
2. Celestial 67%
3. HTS 67%
4. Scott 65%
I don't have the others. I don't see a need to go down the list right now either. I will post some more later. I realize this time is the most important. I put my opinions of people in that percentage.
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Before leaving, I realized I didn't put a factor in to measure if silver is actually being honest, I would expect those %'s to go down, but out of those four, expect Shining to be at the top of the list with Scott at the bottom.
You can rag my case for being on votes and not what people are saying. Votes are actions, words are words. I'm pretty sure all of you can lie to my face and I would probably believe you. So that's why I'm relying more on votes right now. I'll think about the silver lying/not lying factor and get back to you with my list.
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Wait, Silver claimed Cop? Well that's interesting...I missed that earlier and actually gives me something to think about. Originally I was just going to sheep whatever but maybe I can still work this out. She's been very quiet so far which I guess tallies with having something to hide, right from the beginning in fact, her filter is virtually nonexistent. Seems somewhat strange to have three blue roles in a newbie game, possible I guess. I mean WW flipped blue and I know I'm blue so I'm looking at Silver and trying to work out if its a legit claim.
Seems like a very good time to claim either properly or just to throw us off the scent honestly (as opposed to my losing my temper). With the game being a bit precarious a mafia claim now lets the whole game become imbalanced. How would a mafia play it though...claim two town investigated to try to hide? Claim one town for legitimacy and one mafia to provide them with cover? Hard to say. :-\
Your claimed checks aren't bad, but they're not amazing either. They reek of trying to "confirm townies" rather than seek mafia; and you already pointed out the weakness of that with respect to a possible Godfather. So I guess my first question to try to tease this out is: You want to elaborate on why you picked so "safe" checks, Silver?
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EPT
