On January 11 2015 10:28 ExO_ wrote: Silverate has posted next to nothing.
As I said before, I have expectations there are some developments in her arguments. She has answered all my questions, but I have to wonder now at D3 (and later) she needs to be doing more. Tube made an excellent point on this earlier on her.
On January 11 2015 10:28 ExO_ wrote: Jarjar is impossible for me to read: He isn't very articulate and I've largely ignored what he has to say. But my impression as of this moment without filter diving isn't that he's scum, it's that he's just pretty "meh" town.
My concern with JJB is just making sure he isn't hiding behind the numbers and that I can follow what he is doing where and that his reads match up with how he feels. He claimed that his current formulas were based on this:
On January 11 2015 03:17 rsoultin wrote: JarJar, please answer my question on ExO.
Also, why are you exclusively focusing on who the dead townies voted for?
[...]
I did this because it was the key to getting that scum guy I found our first game that no one thought was scum.
I thought it could translate to this game and others. I looked through some other cases and found that it could be rather significant.
My problem with this is that he is not considering mechanics and rules. Every mafia game is different, roles/mechanics are different, and even the community is different here from where ever he has played. So that is my problem, however if he can qualify his reads in a way people can follow the logic, I will feel better about him.
Admittedly he is one of my top scumreads, but especially as we are in lylo, I want to vet his understanding top to bottom to make sure I know what's going on and there's no misleading or hiding behind the numbers. If I can understand and feel comfortable with this, he will not be my lynch vote.
On January 11 2015 10:28 ExO_ wrote: Shining had a lot of suspicion on him day 1. Day 2 I seemed to think he was just playing poorly on day 1, and wasn't scum. But now his case needs to seriously be looked at.
Diving that case and his filter right now in addition to the other stuff I need to catch up on.
On January 11 2015 10:28 ExO_ wrote: Until I go filter diving, it'll be hard for me to push somebody. I feel like because we let the inactives chill so much, we're really paying for it now. I think in future games I'll be more likely to go for inactives early on, so that I won't have to wonder "is that player with almost no posts a mafia? or an inactive town?".
Well that's usually what I rely on a vigilante for, but it appears there was no such role in this game. And one trait of scum is also hanging back whilst the town v town squabbles occur, granted some of these people had RL scheduling issues, but we still need to review the content they do have.
I'm trying to feel your point of view on Silverante (beyond the uselessness I see).
Do you think she's a better lynch then Shining?
On January 09 2015 11:01 Tubesock wrote: I don't get anything from her list post here. I don't think there is anything memorable in it. Where is she scum hunting? When is the point in the game where your only posts are list posts inappropriate? It's a big long post (which people town sometimes) but where is any point where she shows indepth concern or thinking on someone?
I definitely have problems with lacking conviction the longer the game goes. I feel every one of her reads will turn into a sheep vote of one form or another. Just like Lightning but she says nice things that make way more sense than he does.
On January 08 2015 14:35 Silverarte wrote: Well! Soultin took pity on me and told me about the Filter function. Let me tell you...that helps so much. (Who knew that going page by page out of all of these was a 'bad' idea? XD) So, I think first and foremost...I owe a recap of what I think everyone is!
The Shining: You, my friend, are getting scum votes all over the place! And I'm not entirely sure what to make of you just yet. Part of this is certainly my inexperience, but I felt you defended yourself relatively well here in your second post. The first ones you gave flipped back and forth, but it looks like you're backing your decision this round. I'm neutral, leaning towards towne.
HTS: You asked my motivations and thoughts on what's transpired so far. Personally, my first thought is 'Crap, we're getting picked off!". In regards to Waffle, you're right, I sheeped (I believe this means when we're following the votes of others rather than something else, right?). I did this because the cases being made were more reasonable to me at the time. When I was scumming ExO and Gumdrop, I wanted to give them the opportunity to respond before I condemed. I can't say I tunneled, but the sudden silence on Waffle's part made me more suspicious than anything.
As for how I feel about you? (Sheesh I wish we didn't keep missing each other! Well, if I survive til the weekend, I have that off? =D) You've been very consistent and straight forward. You are a straight on town read for me. What are your assessments currently?
Also, in answer to your last post you popped up...I have never played this game before. I am a complete newbie and this is game number 1. (Soultin had been talking about Mafia games continually and I told her I'd try it out). So if it's hard to read me, believe me when I say I find it difficult to read all of you. I'll keep trying though. =)
LS: You are a constant poster, and points to you for that. You do a great job keeping other posters engaged and getting people talking and questioning. I looked through your filter through the beginning. (talk about a read!). Currently, looking through your posts, i'm reading a lot of generalization and little to no specifics on your reads at the moment. I'm growing steadily suspicious of you, particularly with your votes following the 'sheeping trend' (hee...I like that phrase), but I'm seeing little to nothing else. Can you tell me how you're feeling on the people here in, in what way you're leaning and why?
JarJar: I'm not sure what EOD means, but yes, that whole crazy paying the bills thing is biting me in the rear at the moment. Now then...let me bump back to replying to your post at me. That being said, I'm not sure if you just called me out on being scum or not. So, I'll respond as though you did and if you didn't? Weelll...bonus information? =D
I'm discovering one of the hardest things about defending yourself from that view is activity with posting. To compensate, I do my best to post when I come home and before going to work. THAT said...my vote on Waffle was indeed sheeping with Rsoultin. She wrote a good defense and looking back through the posts (which I was going page by page at the time...gosh I love filters) it made logical sense to me. And for me, that matters. That said, in defense against being scum, while I sheeped a vote, I have not tunneled towards anyone and I've been open and honest about what I thought and why. So let me direct a question or two towards you. You aren't out of the suspicion waters yet with me! =P Following what you said about voting LS, what is your reasoning for it? What ranks him above Tube or Shining? Gumdrop: I have to admit, I'm more than a little concerned about you not posting,my friend. When you show up, share your thoughts! Who's suspicious? Who isn't? Celestial: You're been prolific in your posting, and it's led me to think town for you at first. The throwing away of your vote (as you put it) still puts a redmark on you to watch. I think my biggest fret is the free town passes early, straight to the vote...and then I'm not seeing much here about trying to contribute for the town and it feels floaty about-ish. Is Rsoultin your biggest target right now? Why? Tubeshock: I'm just neutral on you. You put thought into short bits of words. I'd be really interested in knowing what you think of everyone at this point too. Are JarJar and Shining still your top picks?
On January 09 2015 11:01 Tubesock wrote: I don't get anything from her list post here. I don't think there is anything memorable in it. Where is she scum hunting? When is the point in the game where your only posts are list posts inappropriate? It's a big long post (which people town sometimes) but where is any point where she shows indepth concern or thinking on someone?
I definitely have problems with lacking conviction the longer the game goes. I feel every one of her reads will turn into a sheep vote of one form or another. Just like Lightning but she says nice things that make way more sense than he does.
On January 08 2015 14:35 Silverarte wrote: Well! Soultin took pity on me and told me about the Filter function. Let me tell you...that helps so much. (Who knew that going page by page out of all of these was a 'bad' idea? XD) So, I think first and foremost...I owe a recap of what I think everyone is!
The Shining: You, my friend, are getting scum votes all over the place! And I'm not entirely sure what to make of you just yet. Part of this is certainly my inexperience, but I felt you defended yourself relatively well here in your second post. The first ones you gave flipped back and forth, but it looks like you're backing your decision this round. I'm neutral, leaning towards towne.
HTS: You asked my motivations and thoughts on what's transpired so far. Personally, my first thought is 'Crap, we're getting picked off!". In regards to Waffle, you're right, I sheeped (I believe this means when we're following the votes of others rather than something else, right?). I did this because the cases being made were more reasonable to me at the time. When I was scumming ExO and Gumdrop, I wanted to give them the opportunity to respond before I condemed. I can't say I tunneled, but the sudden silence on Waffle's part made me more suspicious than anything.
As for how I feel about you? (Sheesh I wish we didn't keep missing each other! Well, if I survive til the weekend, I have that off? =D) You've been very consistent and straight forward. You are a straight on town read for me. What are your assessments currently?
Also, in answer to your last post you popped up...I have never played this game before. I am a complete newbie and this is game number 1. (Soultin had been talking about Mafia games continually and I told her I'd try it out). So if it's hard to read me, believe me when I say I find it difficult to read all of you. I'll keep trying though. =)
LS: You are a constant poster, and points to you for that. You do a great job keeping other posters engaged and getting people talking and questioning. I looked through your filter through the beginning. (talk about a read!). Currently, looking through your posts, i'm reading a lot of generalization and little to no specifics on your reads at the moment. I'm growing steadily suspicious of you, particularly with your votes following the 'sheeping trend' (hee...I like that phrase), but I'm seeing little to nothing else. Can you tell me how you're feeling on the people here in, in what way you're leaning and why?
JarJar: I'm not sure what EOD means, but yes, that whole crazy paying the bills thing is biting me in the rear at the moment. Now then...let me bump back to replying to your post at me. That being said, I'm not sure if you just called me out on being scum or not. So, I'll respond as though you did and if you didn't? Weelll...bonus information? =D
I'm discovering one of the hardest things about defending yourself from that view is activity with posting. To compensate, I do my best to post when I come home and before going to work. THAT said...my vote on Waffle was indeed sheeping with Rsoultin. She wrote a good defense and looking back through the posts (which I was going page by page at the time...gosh I love filters) it made logical sense to me. And for me, that matters. That said, in defense against being scum, while I sheeped a vote, I have not tunneled towards anyone and I've been open and honest about what I thought and why. So let me direct a question or two towards you. You aren't out of the suspicion waters yet with me! =P Following what you said about voting LS, what is your reasoning for it? What ranks him above Tube or Shining? Gumdrop: I have to admit, I'm more than a little concerned about you not posting,my friend. When you show up, share your thoughts! Who's suspicious? Who isn't? Celestial: You're been prolific in your posting, and it's led me to think town for you at first. The throwing away of your vote (as you put it) still puts a redmark on you to watch. I think my biggest fret is the free town passes early, straight to the vote...and then I'm not seeing much here about trying to contribute for the town and it feels floaty about-ish. Is Rsoultin your biggest target right now? Why? Tubeshock: I'm just neutral on you. You put thought into short bits of words. I'd be really interested in knowing what you think of everyone at this point too. Are JarJar and Shining still your top picks?
At this second, yes.
I'm having trust issues at the moment and I typically use the Night phases and first half the day to absorb and think. I didn't get to do that during this night phase. I need time to think about worlds.
I like your case. I could easily sheep it. I don't see anything really wrong with it persay, but I have a really hard time thinking Shining is scum due my theory, and D2 he sounded pretty towny to me. Even in N2 I didn't think his posts were scummy or anything. Granted I don't remember them, but I was focused on different things.
I have a lot of things I think are mafia from Silverarte. I think I've mentioned basically all of them.
I really need to marinate a bit here. If you have questions, I'll be happy to answer them. I'm just digesting right now.
On January 11 2015 10:41 Tubesock wrote: Scott comes in with 2 posts and at first I think I can easily sheep him. Then I think that -Celestial- who is still alive, and I think is super scummy, built a case on Shining.
Rsoultin towned Jarjar who was my "strongest" scum behind Celestial minus his un-CC claim.
This leaves as the mafia team:
Celestial, Silverarte, and Scott/Gumdrops.
Rsoultin died because she's the most important player to town. For me, this gives credence to towning Jarjar. It also would theoretically set up a mlynch of ExO_.
Regarding Shining, there are three different people that are scumreading him. Review the reasons why, review also when they are scumreading as their views could have changed. Scott has the (obviously) most recent case. Rasputin who is confirmed town has her reasons, and we need to crosscheck against Shining's filter for that.
Personally, my thoughts on ExO at face value (prior to the exchange with Rasputin and exploring a world where he could be scum) are that he's a low-post high content type player. To me, postcount is NOT alignment indicative in of itself, but some people here make the argument that scum tend to drop off in posting over the course of the game, which is a valid concern.
I don't know ExO's play style/meta, etc. but prior to today's exchange I did not feel any problems with him.
Additionally, in the Carol post-game, I can't remember which vet it was, but someone said there are multiple ways of scumhunting. Regardless I'm going to review the exchange between him and Rasputin and see if there are any red flags. If there are, I will point them out and simply ask.
Regarding Scott, a replacement player should always start as null until they make an impression. Gumdrop posted even less than Silverarte, but it's a new player now. and from what I can tell, I assume you are scumreading him based on POE.
I am going to judge Scott on content and if I don't like his case I will question it.
Even if you read Rsoultin's legacy concerning Silverarte it's like she doesn't want to insult her by calling her mafia since they are friends. There isn't a single towny word in Rsoultin's paragraph about Silver.
On January 11 2015 10:41 Tubesock wrote: Scott comes in with 2 posts and at first I think I can easily sheep him. Then I think that -Celestial- who is still alive, and I think is super scummy, built a case on Shining.
Rsoultin towned Jarjar who was my "strongest" scum behind Celestial minus his un-CC claim.
This leaves as the mafia team:
Celestial, Silverarte, and Scott/Gumdrops.
Rsoultin died because she's the most important player to town. For me, this gives credence to towning Jarjar. It also would theoretically set up a mlynch of ExO_.
Regarding Shining, there are three different people that are scumreading him. Review the reasons why, review also when they are scumreading as their views could have changed. Scott has the (obviously) most recent case. Rasputin who is confirmed town has her reasons, and we need to crosscheck against Shining's filter for that.
Personally, my thoughts on ExO at face value (prior to the exchange with Rasputin and exploring a world where he could be scum) are that he's a low-post high content type player. To me, postcount is NOT alignment indicative in of itself, but some people here make the argument that scum tend to drop off in posting over the course of the game, which is a valid concern.
I don't know ExO's play style/meta, etc. but prior to today's exchange I did not feel any problems with him.
Additionally, in the Carol post-game, I can't remember which vet it was, but someone said there are multiple ways of scumhunting. Regardless I'm going to review the exchange between him and Rasputin and see if there are any red flags. If there are, I will point them out and simply ask.
Regarding Scott, a replacement player should always start as null until they make an impression. Gumdrop posted even less than Silverarte, but it's a new player now. and from what I can tell, I assume you are scumreading him based on POE.
I am going to judge Scott on content and if I don't like his case I will question it.
It is based on PoE. Which is why I wanted some advice from you two.
That and I don't know how to deal with the situation where Scott and Celestial case Shining. Jarjar hasn't really interacted with me and avoided several questions from me, and you it turns out.
I'm less concerned with his methodology, but I want to know at what % is someone lynch worthy? I mean at his last post it was 46% for his lead. Is that high or low or what? Why couldn't someone take away from that that he had essentially all town reads since they are less than 50% chance of being scum?
added 2% scum based on what I was thinking his quotes were at the time
I remember telling myself, I will laugh wen all of us think he's scum and he turns town. Not as funny now that we are in trouble of losing without even getting 1 right.
I'm busy but I will spin my equation stuff up and post my thoughts. Based on knowledge of it I would guess exo and shining are top 2 with a very large dropoff before #3
On January 11 2015 11:29 jarjarbinks wrote: HTS on the equation thing
added 2% scum based on what I was thinking his quotes were at the time
I remember telling myself, I will laugh wen all of us think he's scum and he turns town. Not as funny now that we are in trouble of losing without even getting 1 right.
I'm busy but I will spin my equation stuff up and post my thoughts. Based on knowledge of it I would guess exo and shining are top 2 with a very large dropoff before #3
Can you also elaborate on how to use that information? I don't think professional numbers people and laymen see numbers in any of the same manner.
On January 11 2015 11:29 jarjarbinks wrote: HTS on the equation thing
added 2% scum based on what I was thinking his quotes were at the time
I remember telling myself, I will laugh wen all of us think he's scum and he turns town. Not as funny now that we are in trouble of losing without even getting 1 right.
I'm busy but I will spin my equation stuff up and post my thoughts. Based on knowledge of it I would guess exo and shining are top 2 with a very large dropoff before #3
That's fine. Cheers. In addition to your numbers I would really like to hear your reasoning in words please for you thinking ExO and Shining are scum, I am in the process of reviewing the exchanges and Scott's case.
On January 11 2015 11:29 Tubesock wrote: ExO has been very upfront with the fact he would have hammered WarWaffle if people shenanied off. In what world would mafia admit that?
If he did, this is a town quality in my opinion, scum want to split the votes, town usually want to consolidate reasonably.
On January 11 2015 11:26 Tubesock wrote: I'm less concerned with his methodology, but I want to know at what % is someone lynch worthy? I mean at his last post it was 46% for his lead. Is that high or low or what? Why couldn't someone take away from that that he had essentially all town reads since they are less than 50% chance of being scum?
I'm not going to put words in JJB's mouth, but my understanding it just reading his posts was by sheer ranking - LS was nr 1 so he got the vote regardless of the percentage. But I will let JJB speak for his methodology.
I want context to those numbers, trust me I am having most of the same issue you are.
Sure I can explain where I think exo and shining are in trouble.
Exo looks doubly bad for the vote LS had on him. Looks worse with the Rsoultin pseudo vote before she died. That will probably give him the most points
Shining looks bad because of the trfel vote.
on another note. HTS is probably the best person left at this game. If she doesn't get killed by mafia soon, I would be very suspicious of her.
On January 11 2015 12:26 jarjarbinks wrote: Exo looks doubly bad for the vote LS had on him. Looks worse with the Rsoultin pseudo vote before she died. That will probably give him the most points
Shining looks bad because of the trfel vote.
Do you have anything from their forum content (besides the votes) that can back this up?
The voting parts are parts that made sense. I know Rasputin had already commented on his first vote. The point on the association reads vote is a very good one, unflipped association reads are never a way to go. It looks to me as if he's trying to find a random reason to just park his vote there and I don't like his explanation, regardless of what he thinks of the VT claim.
On January 08 2015 12:03 The Shining wrote: As for LS and Jar Jar, I've only ever played with Jar Jar once or twice, in much more inactive games, as we all know. So yes, the walls of text posts are out of character to me, as well. I don't like that he tried to direct today with basically no follow through, either. You can't just hint at Trfel's voting me as being the reason he died, then offer absolutely nothing else up.
And my vote is staying on LS until I hear a defense. Even then, I'm pretty sure I'll keep it there. I don't believe in the VT claim and I've already stated my reasons for my vote.
You're supposed to be questioning the guy you plan on lynching and this wording tells me he is looking to park his vote somewhere without making the extra effort; it doesn't show town-driven thinking.
However, the second part about meta, I'm not sure I understand. He's not using a meta case, simply saying he doesn't understand the meta of Rasputin. There is some fluff, but not so much you can't follow - for example in that second passage he's questioning ExO's vote switching because he doesn't understand it.
As for his reads, you have somewhat of a point, the debatable part comes in his presentation. A lot of people in this forum do not prefer list posts, and some people do provide them, but to me, providing your scum reads at minimum is generally okay. I could follow where he was scumreading people, so he was providing town some sort of guidance on his lynch thoughts. I saw maybe 1-2 town reads in there max, but his scum reads were fairly clear and if his presentation of reads is different I cannot necessarily fault him for this.
Rasputin in my opinion, however, has a much more substantial case (that will be longer) that I am in the process of fully looking through. With some luck I can have this done sometime midday Sunday.
It's 4:30am here so I am headed to bed, but will continue on this when I return.
EPT
