EPTNewbie Mini Mafia LX - Page 59
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Silverarte
115 Posts
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On January 12 2015 21:19 jarjarbinks wrote: Tube i am reading the thread enough. I dont think you would ever town me. Your last posts ddid makeme laugh tho. My point is and it applies equally to -Celestial- is that a town wouldn't care what 1 person thinks. It's flattering that you think I'm influential enough to just boss ExO_ and Half the Sky around and that they'd follow. A town, would make a case trying to help town (look at Shining) and appeal to the thread. You post a sarcastic and funny post that blatantly shows you know your formula doesn't work. -Celestial- is godfather. A cop check on a unCC'd player IS coming, and it would be insanely reckless to think it would be safe to fakeclaim without knowing you will check green. I'm very thankful Silverarte didn't check Celestial earlier, it probably would have lost us the game. I'm equally happy with voting Celestial or Jarjar. I'm certain they are mafia. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
The Shining (2): scott31337, jarjarbinks jarjarbinks (2): Tubesock, Silverarte Not Voting (4): The Shining, -Celestial-, Half the Sky, ExO_ Currently, The Shining is set to be lynched. Day three ends on Tuesday, Jan 13 12:00am GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in . | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On January 12 2015 02:56 scott31337 wrote: Unless Shining and Silverarte step up to the plate today, Yes. Have Shining and Silverarte stepped up to the plate? | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
#vote JJB | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 12 2015 22:46 Half the Sky wrote: JJB - your turn. Your formulas. 1 Looking at the category where Silver is telling the truth, you have ExO and Tube at the bottom, but controlling for them possibly being GF. You say ExO's actions are more likely to make him GF. Can you expand on this? 2 Partial extension of #1 - it seems like for the other reads you have this 3% buffer based on subjectivity. You subtracted 2% from Shining for instance. Can you explain why such a small buffer for the others, but seemingly a larger one for ExO? I mean you go from 11% (or 1/11 as you say) to 35%? That looks like a double standard to me. If something jumped out at you, please explain. Am I reading you wrong? It seems like you are putting in numbers based on voting and scumreads? I am struggling to find context for your numbers yet again, and by the looks of it, Tube is as well. The fact is, this is D3, so you've had a few days over now to explain the numbers in a way that make sense in context. After 3 days and trying to work through things we have to question why you are sticking to the methods that you are when we don't know how to use it and interpret it. I have tried just personally interpreting what you've put forth for the second straight day. In these games if questions go answered, we have to ask what you are hiding. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
On January 12 2015 15:23 jarjarbinks wrote: Man Shining, I'm completely convinced you are town! Like seriously, your posts since day 1 have been very good. + Show Spoiler + These are my lists... I made one for if silver is telling the truth and one if she isn't. I didn't include either because if silver is telling the truth, she should be on the list. If she IS lying, then she definitely is mafia. I really think she is telling the truth though. On the crap model (I gave myself a 3% buffer this time), I think the best way is to compare the numbers and see the drop-offs. This is % chance they are evil. IF lying (there would be only 2 mafia in this list, as silver would be a 3rd): 1. Exo (54%) 2. Shining (36%) 3. Tube (33%) 4. HTS(32%) 5. Gum/Scott, Gum/Celestial (30%) 6. JarJarBinks (29% you can add or subtract 3% here. I left it at 0) IF Silver=cop (3 mafia in this one): 1. Shining (67%) 2. HTS (64%) 3.(tie) Celestial, Gum/Scott (61%) 3. JarJarBinks (add or subtract 3% based on how you feel) 4. Exo (35%) 5. Tube (10%) O.K. so trying to explain my thoughts derived from this. I apologize to you if this is confusing and/or it seems like I'm hiding behind numbers. Think of it like I'm literally running to them because you guys are all confusing...lol People to look at: EXO! Silver copped him day 1. 1/11 chance she cops him and he's Godfather. Based on his actions, he's above a 1/3 chance! That's craaaaaazy. Look at the difference between him and Tube there. There's people scumreading Exo on here as well. LS (partially why his rank is so high in the first place) and Rsoultin both read him before they died. Shining I really think Shining is good guys. My model definitely doesn't. I did subtract 3% on both lists. I think I made an error on my last post of putting him at 90%. I think I added Exo's points to Shining's 65% baseline (Exo was at 9% without his points added). If someone will kill roleblock in lynch and silver gets a shot at looking at someone, this is who I would suggest. WOULD CLEAR A LOT OF THINGS UP. That on top of seeing the lynch flip could secure our victory. + Show Spoiler + HTS: I'm going to be honest, I added 3% on HTS. Is HTS being helpful? Yes. DO I think she is capable of being helpful but also steering us in the wrong direction without us knowing it. YES! 100 times yes! HTS you are very good at this game. I will probably always be suspicious of you when in doubt. Same goes with my sister... lolz Gum/Scott: I didn't add much of anything on Gum/Scott. Honestly this is my read. Gum comes in playing 1 game before? Sees he's town. Doesn't care tooo much. He sees how everyones bashing people who can't scumread well (LS,waffle,me) and says PEACE. If he WAS mafia, the lack of suspicion despite him being inactive would prob. be enough to keep him in the game. Scott comes in and sees what he is. He sees the dire situation we are in and digs deep. He reads 58 pages of debating and makes some very good cases, trying to make an impact. All that being said, since gum never voted for anyone that died or get voted for by anyone that died, he is the townist one of us all in my model. Huh. Interesting. All that hating on inactives and got 0 votes. Instead we kill our vet and another towny both who were more active despite all the inactive hating. ME! I hope you saw me on the lists. Move me around 3% as much as you will. If you don't like %, then pretend they are points. This is a game of golf, towniest people have the low scores. I HAVE been using numbers. Without a detailed description of my "crap" I could see why you would be suspicious. I AM TOWN (I should probably say that more...). If you lynch me, I hope you remember how I act for if we play again. I probably won't act much different, besides the scumread thing as a punishment (that got a lot of hate lolz). Anyways, before I call it a night I wanted to talk about silver's claim. I believe her. She wasn't in trouble really, and it was a good time to claim. If there was no cop, mafia wouldn't randomly claim in my opinion. It doesn't exactly help them to have their (probably) least suspicious person claim cop with over a day to go. It could be a ploy, but it seems like you would be taking a lot of risk for not much of a reward. Plus if this is a newb game, I could see the moderator at least having veteran and cop (and medic too if that's real). More roles help us learn right? Learning might be as important as balance in this game right? O.K. work is tomorrow for me. Gotta pay the bills lol It is raining outside, who knows I might get a delay/snowday! If not, I will try to check at b-fast and lunch as well as get home before EOD. IF all fails, I'll try to step out of work to read and vote in real fast if something crazy happens. If I find you all lynch trained me, then pretend I made this giant rant about how none of you can make any reads before you see I flip town. I would also say "better dead here then dead at the core." It would have no quotes on people or scumreads either....lolz My vote is for Shining (but I think he's town!) for now. I really am unsure of this vote, please try to convince me that this isn't a good vote. I will change it if I think it is a good idea. Top switch targets for me would be Exo and HTS. I hope this clears some things up when you are thinking about my thoughts. Mesa sorry for the brain power you probably lost trying to get through it all lol Now this worries me a lot. You say you think the Shining is town but still vote for him? Your model overrides...? If I listened to my instincts as often as I do now fifteen years ago I'd be a millionaire. How old are you if you don't mind me asking? The Shining has stepped up his last couple posts, that is for sure. | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
On January 12 2015 16:55 Tubesock wrote: + Show Spoiler + Jarjarbinks- I think you’re quite funny and will gladly play with you again. It's been a fun game. But I still want to beat you, so don't take my Crap Model jabs too seriously.  On January 12 2015 09:58 jarjarbinks wrote: + Show Spoiler + Is this the question I was avoiding? SO. I think at the time the chances of hitting mafia were 30% if no one ever talked or derived anything from votes/nightkills. If I just randomly pulled a name out of a hat (of the 10 people alive I was talking about), then 3 times out of 10 we would hit a scum. The additional %'s points I added were due to votes. The first day I decided that since both people that died voted and then changed to bandwagon, I figured it would work to pretend that was two different votes. So I believe LS was in the 48ish range? hard to remember honestly. I could go look back, but I will keep going for time's sake. so 48% was the 30% plus the additional 16%. I added 2% based on my thoughts. So lets looks at LS vs say HTS. I subtracted 2-3% on HTS so HTS was 27%. In my mind at the time, HTS had a 27% of being scum. (Looks much worse to me now obviously because there's only 4 real options left.) LS had a 48% chance. 48 vs. 27. So generally I would rather vote for LS over HTS on whatever day that was. Day 2? I think it was day 2. In my model I'm trying to be as accurate as possible. That means that my top lynch target probably won't have a 90% chance ever.+ Show Spoiler + 48% is very high for day 2 in my opinion. I definitely was on track with most of you thinking LS was bad. I hope this cleared something up. If not ask more questions and I'll answer. Two of his posts and 18 minutes later: On January 12 2015 10:16 jarjarbinks wrote: + Show Spoiler + So long story short: My thoughts and %'s on people. 65% is the BASELINE (75% chance to land mafia with 4 people minus 10% chance of silverarte hitting godfather on exo or tube) 1. Shining 89% + Show Spoiler + 2. Celestial 67% 3. HTS 67% 4. Scott 65% I don't have the others. I don't see a need to go down the list right now either. I will post some more later. I realize this time is the most important. I put my opinions of people in that percentage. That was funny I don't care who you are. Now, more seriously: On January 07 2015 02:02 jarjarbinks wrote: + Show Spoiler + Singular posts that are suspicious to me (Ignore my lack of knowledge on the English language if you can!)- Shining- Based off 1 past game, I could see Shining’s posts on here being similar to when she was mafia last game. Really weak case though, as I’ve only played with Shining once. I could see her defending her way out of my suspicion, since it is a weak case and Shining has prodded several different people as well as defended herself in the past. Tubesock- If I was a mafia, I would be playing like tubesock. First posts are shallowish, then stepped it up when told to. I haven’t thought his recent posts have been that great, they mostly follow up other’s ideas. It would be posts I could see myself posting if I wanted to post more. Plus he is off Celestial’s scum-list, which does worry me that he will be off other’s as well. A solid defense against my suspicion would be that tubesock is new and is now more confident in posting than he was at the beginning. He has also made analysis, just not at the level as others in my opinion. I don’t think Tubesock would be a smart day 1 lynch because I think we could figure him out later because of the amount of posts he has been posting. + Show Spoiler + Silverarte- If I had to choose someone who was playing similar to LS that wasn’t LS it would be Silverarte. Silverarte has no relative suspicion in comparison to LS which makes me suspicious! Gumdrop- Lack of posts. Most people have given him a pass which isn’t good in my opinion. He has gotten some votes though, despite me seeing myself as an easier target than gumdrop. A good defense against my suspicion would be his last post, which I thought was pretty good. LS- I would file LS as suspicious but someone I would want to not lynch day 1. He has the attention of people, and he posts a lot. I think it should be easier to determine him mafia later on IF he is mafia. I think it would be easier to get backing from others as well based on what I have read on here so far. Suspicions on collaboration (I think it would be stupid to collaborate as mafia day 1, but what do I know): Celestial-Exo: Small hints of collaboration. If I was mafia, I think the best person to estabilish my credibility as town would be Celestial. Have generally agreed with all of their posts. Both went after LS. Rsoultin-Silverarte-LS-me if you would like: Rsoultin generally makes good logical arguments from what I have seen from her and from personal experience. It is very easy to bandwagon her points. Silverarte, LS, and I have all done that already. Silverarte has been on her side since the beginning. You can attribute that to them being friends. LS did bandwagon on Rsoultins ideas, but you could attribute that to LS’s defense. Still worth noting for now. People I’m generally scared of: Celestial- Established great credibility day 1. Your writing style is very similar to a very established economist professor’s. If I was good at this game and was mafia, establishing credibility would be a top priority. Rsoultin- Very good at prodding and generating very logical arguments against people. Which means, if mafia, would be very good at it. Can prod and generate arguments about fallacies in people’s posts remarkably well. If she is mafia, I will have a difficult time reading it and a difficult time trying to convince others of it. People I think are least scummy: HTS-Good analysis and limited posts make it hard for me to be suspicious. Exo- great prodder early day and seems to be flinging scum everywhere. I would try to do this as scum (I think I’d have a better shot at this over establishing credibility lol). I also like that he tried to generate others to talk more (I’m such a hypocrite). Plus, people have been suspicious of him. That makes me a little more at ease about not being suspicious of him just in case he truly is mafia. He’s fully capable of analyzing without his formula. He really avoided offering any reads with something we could read or use. If I were to meta it, I would give a town point though. If I were used to playing games that complete in 17 pages, I'd definitely use formulas or something over talking and behavior analysis. BUT he didn't/doesn't care enough to see how this approach doesn't work in this type of game, with these players, mechanics etc. On January 07 2015 02:14 jarjarbinks wrote: + Show Spoiler + List of Scum: #1: Shining #2: Tube #3: Silver #4: Waffle #5: LS Reread the bold in the earlier spoiler quote. He scums Shining for what reasons? Then cites what I think are much stronger reasons on me, yet I’m less scummy than Shining? What the what? He also never comes at me. I even ask him to, a couple of times. He continually avoided me. Not till now when if he doesn't he knows he dies. Is this the part (below) where Jarjarbinks "demonstrates" towny behavior due to fearless posting? On January 12 2015 12:27 jarjarbinks wrote: + Show Spoiler + You are my favorite player in this game silver! I hope we play more games together if you like this stuff. I think I will keep playing if my sis plays and people will allow me to play with them =D Hmm your question about Shining is hard for me to answer. I am overwhelmed by your contradiction with that ginormous -2% correction. Whoa... Whoa. *Later revises to 3% + Show Spoiler + You gain a lot by lying. For example, as soon as you said that I automatically assumed both you are town as well as tube and exo. I can see why you picked those two to check as well, unlike celestial. But IF you are a liar, then you exonerate yourself completely as well as at least one of your counterparts. Hard for us to guess right 3 times when in the back of our minds we have already decided that 2 mafia are town. Real cop could counterclaim, but there might not even be a cop in this case. ...blah blah... To be EVEN MORE CONTRADICTORY, ...blah...blah..+ Show Spoiler + I will have my updated reads soon, but my past ones are definitely not final. I did not account for claims in my case studies because I didn't want to actually read the 100 pages of crap in each mafia game on here. For this reason, I don't see that it is right to apply those cases to a claim. I didn't do it with celestial on day 2, I don't feel I should do it here. Also, I feel like I am being too confident in what I have found via case study. I don't have enough of them to really base everything 80%-90% of my vote on it. I'm debating whether to give myself more sway based on my thoughts and what you guys have said. Silver, Exo, Tube, Celestial. Whats your scum list look like these days? Obviously not reading the thread enough to have any idea what I want to see before I town someone: On January 12 2015 10:01 jarjarbinks wrote: Motivation to....post long posts? Answer your questions? I'm generally lost on this. His last few posts were in a relative flurry for his activity. At least I think so. He sees town is in a desparate moment and on the cusp of losing the game. He sees this, and does want to win the game. If he were town, he'd see what we need and change his approach to try to help us win. He'd read and pay attention to the what people want. Check The Shinings posts lately. The Shining is laying it all out there. He's trying to help. Jarjar is "trying" too. "I'm generally lost on this." is basically, "I AM MAFIA! I AM MAFIA! I AM MAFIA!" You make some very good points here Tube, espically adding on to how I dislike his "I think Shining's town and still voting for him". That still sits bad in my stomach and makes me wonder if Shining is actually town and I'm on the mislynch target. | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
On January 13 2015 00:44 Tubesock wrote: Have Shining and Silverarte stepped up to the plate? I believe in Silverarte's Cop claim, it fits the time, makes sense. so yes, Silverarte has. I'm not a fan of her check on you though, but I'm not going to bash on it. The Shining has stepped up as well, answered my case, and made me feel better about him. Celestial is the Un-CC'ed doc and wasn't around much yesterday (It was his birthday). I am curious where his vote is when he returns. JarJar was my fourth lean, but has added some scumminess to himself for the reasons I said above. | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
On January 12 2015 17:21 ExO_ wrote: So I've been gone for a while. I stepped away from mafia for a while because it was kinda stressing me out. And to be entirely honest I was feeling lazy and felt like playing dota and civ. Unfortunately when you do this you come back to a few new pages of content and several huge posts. I've skimmed everything. I'm sure I don't have it all down. But Silverate has claimed cop, without a counter claim. This means he will die tonight. I really think Celestial fake claimed doctor. But I think after another day it'll become more obvious if he did or not. Right now it looks like to me the leading lynch candidates are shining and jarjar. Could somebody give me a brief explanation of the reasoning on both? Also if there are any questions about my actions I'll gladly answer them. I think if you look at my play It's pretty clear I am town, especially since I've been cleared by silv. Are you the godfather Exo? Is there a reason why you cannot read the last five pages and understand the reasoning of the Shining and Jarjar? Are you just trying to find a good sheep? How possible could that tinfoil hat theory be? Do you know which one I am referring to? Can you give us an updated reads list? | ||
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-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Anyway. Very quick read rundown of everyone, been lurking a bit: - Silver I'm very dubious of the claim. Like I said the other day since I know I'm blue and since WW flipped blue it makes me cautious. But on the other hand with the tiny filter I don't know what to do with her. Not really a viable lynch just yet but I've got a very bad feeling about her. - Tube been asking good questions and giving good answers. Town. - ExO I've been pretty highly townreading most of the game but the whole Godfather discussion going on the past couple of days has thrown a spanner into that a bit. Really not feeling good on him right now as a result but could be thread influence on my feelings here, which could come from anywhere. - scott is replacement. He's been asking good questions and seems to genuinely be trying to figure out the game. - JJB as I've pointed out before I was originally heavily scumreading. But ever since the D1 lynch he's really stepped up his game. Pretty sure he's town at this point but I guess he could be duping me. - HtS is much like Tube. Asking good questions, giving good answers. - Shining I've never really liked the play of and had suspicions on all game which haven't gone away. Think this is our best chance to secure a mafia lynch. Therefore: ##Vote: The Shining | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
##Vote: JJB | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
Scott, JarJarBinks, and Celestial. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
ExO is a 100% correct. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
just got home, excited for a rage | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I think id rather rate my LVP's for this round instead! I bet tubes at the top hes ALWAYS WRONG! ALLLLWWAAAAYYYYSS! | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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