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On June 08 2014 05:36 fuba wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2014 05:16 Amiko wrote:
@Fuba re: N2 Roleblock
I think the thing is, from my point of view mderg looked was relatively towny for being on the right wagon.
I don't feel like the roleblock claim was really necessary for him to get 'town cred' (and it also seems like something scum wouldn't feel the need to do since no one was giving Slam townreads based on his roleblock claim, except maybe M_Z on the following day) and although it's something that helps his case, I feel like even without it he would be a fair pick for town.
If anything, I might have expected someone on the M_Z wagon to claim roleblock for town cred because they needed it more.
...Really, I was very surprised I wasn't roleblocked n2, that was the biggest reason I thought there must be a watcher in the game.
As an aside, I actually thought D2 that Palmar could have been softing watcher it with his references to a 'slam dunk' (which suggested to me that perhaps he was watcher, had watched Alakaslam, and had caught M_Z roleblocking), but it became clear that wasn't the case or he would have outed the check N2 for the sure win. I can't remember a single time that slam was ever actually in danger of being lynched despite not being able to remember a single contribution he made to the game. I contributed more than him and I've been called out multiple times for not contributing. The only thing that explains it for me is the roleblock. And yes, mderg looked towny. That is *exactly* the reason he did it. All of it. He switched to sloosh at a time where, I repeat, sloosh was GUARANTEED to be lynched. There was a very, very low probability that he could get out of it. Every vote was accounted for, even if they weren't placed. You can't look at it from the perspective of a townie - someone who's trying to find the right lynch. Look at it from the perspective of a scummer - someone who is trying to control the lynch for their own ends. They had no control of it anymore at that point. And keeping the entire scumteam on the town wagon would have been an absolutely terrible play. They needed someone off of MZ, and they couldn't avoid not lynching sloosh. Sloosh can't vote for himself, gobble has disappeared from the thread, and that would just leave mderg. Yes, his switch seemed strong, because he reiterated points that you brought up and he was actually lynching someone he knew for a fact to be scum. His switch was the best possible scum play at that point in the game. Compare that to what I did, which did absolutely nothing but make me look suspicious. What was my plan with that as scum? It looks like two of my scummates are going to be lynched/modkilled, so I go balls to the wall to save one of them when I know the alternate wagon I'm pushing is a mislynch? My actions D2 did me no favors whatsoever.
I think your actions on day 2 made sense as scum. It was close to switching the lynch over and would have been enough to save sloosh, if gobble was there. In that case it would have worked hugely in your favor. But it didn´t work out for you.
I don´t think I would have voted sloosh solely because of Amiko´s case. I still thought that MZ was the better lynch until sloosh put out a defense that contradicted with the one point that I thought could point towards him being town.
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I've got 2 hours in this lab left, so I'm going to get working on what I need the lab to do.
I guess what I'm ultimately going to suggest is that everyone looks at who did what would be best for them as scum in the situations scum found themselves in. I would say the pivotal point is definitely the sloosh lynch. Which of us came out of that situation looking better? Because scum had a long time to decide how they were going to handle sloosh being lynched. Is the scumplay 1) to bus him once it's inevitable that he's getting lynched or 2) spring a last-minute gambit that probably won't even work but will definitely make them look suspicious when sloosh flips (as he definitely would have even if MZ had been mislynched first). There's being unable to maintain a town guise as scum (this is my typical scumplay), and then there's just doing what's completely ill-advised as scum (which is what I would have done this game). If I'm scum, I've overcome my original scum-downfall only to instead become a complete idiot.
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On June 08 2014 06:10 mderg wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2014 05:36 fuba wrote:On June 08 2014 05:16 Amiko wrote:
@Fuba re: N2 Roleblock
I think the thing is, from my point of view mderg looked was relatively towny for being on the right wagon.
I don't feel like the roleblock claim was really necessary for him to get 'town cred' (and it also seems like something scum wouldn't feel the need to do since no one was giving Slam townreads based on his roleblock claim, except maybe M_Z on the following day) and although it's something that helps his case, I feel like even without it he would be a fair pick for town.
If anything, I might have expected someone on the M_Z wagon to claim roleblock for town cred because they needed it more.
...Really, I was very surprised I wasn't roleblocked n2, that was the biggest reason I thought there must be a watcher in the game.
As an aside, I actually thought D2 that Palmar could have been softing watcher it with his references to a 'slam dunk' (which suggested to me that perhaps he was watcher, had watched Alakaslam, and had caught M_Z roleblocking), but it became clear that wasn't the case or he would have outed the check N2 for the sure win. I can't remember a single time that slam was ever actually in danger of being lynched despite not being able to remember a single contribution he made to the game. I contributed more than him and I've been called out multiple times for not contributing. The only thing that explains it for me is the roleblock. And yes, mderg looked towny. That is *exactly* the reason he did it. All of it. He switched to sloosh at a time where, I repeat, sloosh was GUARANTEED to be lynched. There was a very, very low probability that he could get out of it. Every vote was accounted for, even if they weren't placed. You can't look at it from the perspective of a townie - someone who's trying to find the right lynch. Look at it from the perspective of a scummer - someone who is trying to control the lynch for their own ends. They had no control of it anymore at that point. And keeping the entire scumteam on the town wagon would have been an absolutely terrible play. They needed someone off of MZ, and they couldn't avoid not lynching sloosh. Sloosh can't vote for himself, gobble has disappeared from the thread, and that would just leave mderg. Yes, his switch seemed strong, because he reiterated points that you brought up and he was actually lynching someone he knew for a fact to be scum. His switch was the best possible scum play at that point in the game. Compare that to what I did, which did absolutely nothing but make me look suspicious. What was my plan with that as scum? It looks like two of my scummates are going to be lynched/modkilled, so I go balls to the wall to save one of them when I know the alternate wagon I'm pushing is a mislynch? My actions D2 did me no favors whatsoever. I think your actions on day 2 made sense as scum. It was close to switching the lynch over and would have been enough to save sloosh, if gobble was there. In that case it would have worked hugely in your favor. But it didn´t work out for you. I don´t think I would have voted sloosh solely because of Amiko´s case. I still thought that MZ was the better lynch until sloosh put out a defense that contradicted with the one point that I thought could point towards him being town.
I don't have to convince you, you already know you're scum.
But for everyone else, my play D2 made no sense as scum. Sloosh was inevitably going to be lynched, and by putting myself at the forefront of the switch back to MZ, I'd be really damn suspicious even if I secured a mislynch D2. And since gobble didn't post for that entire day, and he got modkilled for not voting, I'm gonna go ahead and guess that you couldn't get ahold of him to plan a strategy. And even if he was there to switch over, then that would put the entire scumteam on the mislynch wagon. Bad bad bad bad bad plan.
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On June 08 2014 05:51 fuba wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2014 05:04 Amiko wrote:One point I raised during the end of D2 was that it was strange how fuba was concerned M_Z's lynch was going too easily, but was not concerned about the same thing on jabber. Here's the exchange between me and fuba: + Show Spoiler +On June 01 2014 09:10 Amiko wrote:
Okay here's another good point
@sqrt:
Yesterday fuba was content to go with a bandwagon on jabber. He kept his vote on jabber.
Today he is afraid of a bandwagon that is going too easily.
Yesterday's wagon went more easily. Today he is concerned. WAT On June 01 2014 09:11 fuba wrote:
This isn't a "too easy" argument from me. It's the argument that between two players that are relatively identical according to the reads of most players in the thread, this is the wagon that at least two scum are on. This lynch feels more uncertain than yesterday's, and more dangerous.
Hm, I guess it almost is a "too easy" argument, but I think the point still stands. And yes, I read people as town based on single posts all the time. If the rest of their filter is pretty "meh" to me, Seeing what I feel is a clear town mindset pretty much makes them town unless I have to completely reevaluate my reads and start from the beginning. I think there's a secondary point worth looking at regarding Fuba's play d2. Look at the beginning of his case on sqrt: + Show Spoiler +On May 31 2014 15:45 fuba wrote:
I'm glad you mentioned sqrt, because he's someone who's stuck out to me.
His reason for unvoting jabber and voting palmar was that lynches like that end up being wrong. It turns out that he was right, but isn't that a really, really strange reason to unvote someone when you have legitimate reasons to believe he's scum in front of you? Then he swaps back to jabber in order to get more information, even though he thinks palmar is scummier. He then unvotes jabber because of his defense. Not the content of his defense, because that was scummy. He basically unvoted because jabber gave A reason. It wasn't a "too scummy to be scum" argument, it was just - he gave a reason, I think he's town. Then while interacting with Chrom, he says that he doesn't think jabber is town (except he actually did explicitly say "I think he's town now."), but he thinks there's a possibility that jabber is town. This is a really strange thing to say as town because unless someone is somehow modconfirmed scum, there is always the possibility that they're town. That's a given, it's understood by everyone. But he reiterates the fact that he thinks jabber is scummy, but might be town, but might also be scum, about 3-4 times.
(cut)
Fuba is pointing to sqrt's willingness to vote and unvote on jabber D1 as scummy. He points out that this is suspicious partly because sqrt is still willing to say that jabber may be mafia. But, consider fuba's play d2, specifically when he is moving from sqrt to M_Z: + Show Spoiler +On June 01 2014 08:06 fuba wrote:
##Unvote
Something that's bugging me about this lynch is that if slOosh and MZ are generally considered to be scummy in similar ways, then scum could vote for either of them for generally the same reasons. So if they're not both scum, then it's far more likely that today will be a mislynch. SlOosh's last post made me feel like he's town, because he gave his reads instead of just ditching the thread when he's pretty definitely getting lynched. It could be a scum ploy, but his comments about Amiko make me really uneasy about lynching him. He appears to be looking at his own lynch from a townie's eyes. He sees that there are two similar wagons and the driving force behind one being stronger than the other is Amiko. He warns us against trusting anything Amiko says about non-MZ lynches D3 because if SlOosh is town then he knows Amiko's actions have brought scum within one mislynch of winning. That last post from SlOosh is possibly one of the towniest things in the thread, imo, because I find that mentality to be something that's pretty difficult to fake. He doesn't just say "don't trust Amiko", as I believe scum would do, but he took it a step farther and said not to trust him if he tries to push anything other than MZ D3. That is what I find so townie about this post.
If I have to vote for one or the other, at the moment, I'd ##Vote: Meapak_Ziphh
It bugs me that Palmar hasn't returned to the thread before this lynch, since he's on the MZ wagon but said he's be up for a SlOosh lynch. Dunno if I find him scummy for it, but given my current view of this as a scum-controlled lynch, his absence is allowing what I believe is going to be a mislynch to happen over his top scumread. Here, I think fuba is doing something along the lines of what he has accused sqrt of doing - fuba is basically using the idea that the majority vote would lead to a mislynch. There are some differences, to be fair. Fuba says he is townreading slOosh (and Haru and sqrt seem to feel the same way), so it's different from D1 sqrt who still suspected jabber. I think fuba's reasons are still a little different, too - he is saying that the two are scummy for the same reasons. From my point of view, the scummiest things on both players were the same, except applied more to slOosh. If you went with Palmar's argument (M_Z is scum because he called Palmar town after Palmar called M_Z scum), then the scummiest things on the players were different. I still would like you to explain this a little more fuba. My reasoning had very little to do with the actual cases on the players. It was about the nature of the lynch itself. The basic logic behind it was: if everyone says they will vote on one of these two players, and one of those players is scum, then scum's goal is to sway the lynch towards the townie (turns out that they tried to do that but were unable to). This doesn't take into account your force behind the scum lynch, though, which was a pretty big mistake on my part. I basically overestimated the sway that scum had in that situation.
The base logic behind that makes sense but as you´ve also already said scum generally wants to split their votes. So I think that reasoning is kinda wrong, in that situation scum can´t change the situation too much just based on votes. The leading force for the sloosh lynch was Amiko who was very townie and besides his case there was actually not much else brought up about sloosh. I think there were actually more people trying to sway votes to MZ, so I don´t get how it could have seemed like scum were trying to direct to the sloosh lynch.
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On June 08 2014 06:18 fuba wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2014 06:10 mderg wrote:On June 08 2014 05:36 fuba wrote:On June 08 2014 05:16 Amiko wrote:
@Fuba re: N2 Roleblock
I think the thing is, from my point of view mderg looked was relatively towny for being on the right wagon.
I don't feel like the roleblock claim was really necessary for him to get 'town cred' (and it also seems like something scum wouldn't feel the need to do since no one was giving Slam townreads based on his roleblock claim, except maybe M_Z on the following day) and although it's something that helps his case, I feel like even without it he would be a fair pick for town.
If anything, I might have expected someone on the M_Z wagon to claim roleblock for town cred because they needed it more.
...Really, I was very surprised I wasn't roleblocked n2, that was the biggest reason I thought there must be a watcher in the game.
As an aside, I actually thought D2 that Palmar could have been softing watcher it with his references to a 'slam dunk' (which suggested to me that perhaps he was watcher, had watched Alakaslam, and had caught M_Z roleblocking), but it became clear that wasn't the case or he would have outed the check N2 for the sure win. I can't remember a single time that slam was ever actually in danger of being lynched despite not being able to remember a single contribution he made to the game. I contributed more than him and I've been called out multiple times for not contributing. The only thing that explains it for me is the roleblock. And yes, mderg looked towny. That is *exactly* the reason he did it. All of it. He switched to sloosh at a time where, I repeat, sloosh was GUARANTEED to be lynched. There was a very, very low probability that he could get out of it. Every vote was accounted for, even if they weren't placed. You can't look at it from the perspective of a townie - someone who's trying to find the right lynch. Look at it from the perspective of a scummer - someone who is trying to control the lynch for their own ends. They had no control of it anymore at that point. And keeping the entire scumteam on the town wagon would have been an absolutely terrible play. They needed someone off of MZ, and they couldn't avoid not lynching sloosh. Sloosh can't vote for himself, gobble has disappeared from the thread, and that would just leave mderg. Yes, his switch seemed strong, because he reiterated points that you brought up and he was actually lynching someone he knew for a fact to be scum. His switch was the best possible scum play at that point in the game. Compare that to what I did, which did absolutely nothing but make me look suspicious. What was my plan with that as scum? It looks like two of my scummates are going to be lynched/modkilled, so I go balls to the wall to save one of them when I know the alternate wagon I'm pushing is a mislynch? My actions D2 did me no favors whatsoever. I think your actions on day 2 made sense as scum. It was close to switching the lynch over and would have been enough to save sloosh, if gobble was there. In that case it would have worked hugely in your favor. But it didn´t work out for you. I don´t think I would have voted sloosh solely because of Amiko´s case. I still thought that MZ was the better lynch until sloosh put out a defense that contradicted with the one point that I thought could point towards him being town. I don't have to convince you, you already know you're scum. But for everyone else, my play D2 made no sense as scum. Sloosh was inevitably going to be lynched, and by putting myself at the forefront of the switch back to MZ, I'd be really damn suspicious even if I secured a mislynch D2. And since gobble didn't post for that entire day, and he got modkilled for not voting, I'm gonna go ahead and guess that you couldn't get ahold of him to plan a strategy. And even if he was there to switch over, then that would put the entire scumteam on the mislynch wagon. Bad bad bad bad bad plan.
You don´t have to convince me, I know you´re scum, but that doesn´t mean I can´t tell people why your play made sense as scum.
You mean like me putting myself in the spotlight on the jwz lynch?
You knew Palmar was also trying to get people´s votes over to MZ, so you knew there might still have been a chance to get the misslynch. You´re making things up about me knowing gobble wouldn´t be there where just gobble voting would have secured the misynch for you. I guess you were planning with gobble´s vote and thus only needed like 2 people to switch their votes. This wasn´t that unrealistic.
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On June 08 2014 06:31 mderg wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2014 06:18 fuba wrote:On June 08 2014 06:10 mderg wrote:On June 08 2014 05:36 fuba wrote:On June 08 2014 05:16 Amiko wrote:
@Fuba re: N2 Roleblock
I think the thing is, from my point of view mderg looked was relatively towny for being on the right wagon.
I don't feel like the roleblock claim was really necessary for him to get 'town cred' (and it also seems like something scum wouldn't feel the need to do since no one was giving Slam townreads based on his roleblock claim, except maybe M_Z on the following day) and although it's something that helps his case, I feel like even without it he would be a fair pick for town.
If anything, I might have expected someone on the M_Z wagon to claim roleblock for town cred because they needed it more.
...Really, I was very surprised I wasn't roleblocked n2, that was the biggest reason I thought there must be a watcher in the game.
As an aside, I actually thought D2 that Palmar could have been softing watcher it with his references to a 'slam dunk' (which suggested to me that perhaps he was watcher, had watched Alakaslam, and had caught M_Z roleblocking), but it became clear that wasn't the case or he would have outed the check N2 for the sure win. I can't remember a single time that slam was ever actually in danger of being lynched despite not being able to remember a single contribution he made to the game. I contributed more than him and I've been called out multiple times for not contributing. The only thing that explains it for me is the roleblock. And yes, mderg looked towny. That is *exactly* the reason he did it. All of it. He switched to sloosh at a time where, I repeat, sloosh was GUARANTEED to be lynched. There was a very, very low probability that he could get out of it. Every vote was accounted for, even if they weren't placed. You can't look at it from the perspective of a townie - someone who's trying to find the right lynch. Look at it from the perspective of a scummer - someone who is trying to control the lynch for their own ends. They had no control of it anymore at that point. And keeping the entire scumteam on the town wagon would have been an absolutely terrible play. They needed someone off of MZ, and they couldn't avoid not lynching sloosh. Sloosh can't vote for himself, gobble has disappeared from the thread, and that would just leave mderg. Yes, his switch seemed strong, because he reiterated points that you brought up and he was actually lynching someone he knew for a fact to be scum. His switch was the best possible scum play at that point in the game. Compare that to what I did, which did absolutely nothing but make me look suspicious. What was my plan with that as scum? It looks like two of my scummates are going to be lynched/modkilled, so I go balls to the wall to save one of them when I know the alternate wagon I'm pushing is a mislynch? My actions D2 did me no favors whatsoever. I think your actions on day 2 made sense as scum. It was close to switching the lynch over and would have been enough to save sloosh, if gobble was there. In that case it would have worked hugely in your favor. But it didn´t work out for you. I don´t think I would have voted sloosh solely because of Amiko´s case. I still thought that MZ was the better lynch until sloosh put out a defense that contradicted with the one point that I thought could point towards him being town. I don't have to convince you, you already know you're scum. But for everyone else, my play D2 made no sense as scum. Sloosh was inevitably going to be lynched, and by putting myself at the forefront of the switch back to MZ, I'd be really damn suspicious even if I secured a mislynch D2. And since gobble didn't post for that entire day, and he got modkilled for not voting, I'm gonna go ahead and guess that you couldn't get ahold of him to plan a strategy. And even if he was there to switch over, then that would put the entire scumteam on the mislynch wagon. Bad bad bad bad bad plan. You don´t have to convince me, I know you´re scum, but that doesn´t mean I can´t tell people why your play made sense as scum. You mean like me putting myself in the spotlight on the jwz lynch? You knew Palmar was also trying to get people´s votes over to MZ, so you knew there might still have been a chance to get the misslynch. You´re making things up about me knowing gobble wouldn´t be there where just gobble voting would have secured the misynch for you. I guess you were planning with gobble´s vote and thus only needed like 2 people to switch their votes. This wasn´t that unrealistic.
You can't know something that isn't true 
And no, me derailing a scum wagon onto town would have looked much worse than you defending a townie.
So you're saying I concocted a plan to force the entire scumteam onto MZ in order to prevent a sloosh lynch that would occur the following day, anyway, and reveal that the switch was clearly scum motivated? And I did so without knowing whether or not gobble would actually be there to support my daring ploy, which makes even the chance of getting a mislynch out of it pretty unlikely?
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On June 08 2014 08:28 fuba wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2014 06:31 mderg wrote:On June 08 2014 06:18 fuba wrote:On June 08 2014 06:10 mderg wrote:On June 08 2014 05:36 fuba wrote:On June 08 2014 05:16 Amiko wrote:
@Fuba re: N2 Roleblock
I think the thing is, from my point of view mderg looked was relatively towny for being on the right wagon.
I don't feel like the roleblock claim was really necessary for him to get 'town cred' (and it also seems like something scum wouldn't feel the need to do since no one was giving Slam townreads based on his roleblock claim, except maybe M_Z on the following day) and although it's something that helps his case, I feel like even without it he would be a fair pick for town.
If anything, I might have expected someone on the M_Z wagon to claim roleblock for town cred because they needed it more.
...Really, I was very surprised I wasn't roleblocked n2, that was the biggest reason I thought there must be a watcher in the game.
As an aside, I actually thought D2 that Palmar could have been softing watcher it with his references to a 'slam dunk' (which suggested to me that perhaps he was watcher, had watched Alakaslam, and had caught M_Z roleblocking), but it became clear that wasn't the case or he would have outed the check N2 for the sure win. I can't remember a single time that slam was ever actually in danger of being lynched despite not being able to remember a single contribution he made to the game. I contributed more than him and I've been called out multiple times for not contributing. The only thing that explains it for me is the roleblock. And yes, mderg looked towny. That is *exactly* the reason he did it. All of it. He switched to sloosh at a time where, I repeat, sloosh was GUARANTEED to be lynched. There was a very, very low probability that he could get out of it. Every vote was accounted for, even if they weren't placed. You can't look at it from the perspective of a townie - someone who's trying to find the right lynch. Look at it from the perspective of a scummer - someone who is trying to control the lynch for their own ends. They had no control of it anymore at that point. And keeping the entire scumteam on the town wagon would have been an absolutely terrible play. They needed someone off of MZ, and they couldn't avoid not lynching sloosh. Sloosh can't vote for himself, gobble has disappeared from the thread, and that would just leave mderg. Yes, his switch seemed strong, because he reiterated points that you brought up and he was actually lynching someone he knew for a fact to be scum. His switch was the best possible scum play at that point in the game. Compare that to what I did, which did absolutely nothing but make me look suspicious. What was my plan with that as scum? It looks like two of my scummates are going to be lynched/modkilled, so I go balls to the wall to save one of them when I know the alternate wagon I'm pushing is a mislynch? My actions D2 did me no favors whatsoever. I think your actions on day 2 made sense as scum. It was close to switching the lynch over and would have been enough to save sloosh, if gobble was there. In that case it would have worked hugely in your favor. But it didn´t work out for you. I don´t think I would have voted sloosh solely because of Amiko´s case. I still thought that MZ was the better lynch until sloosh put out a defense that contradicted with the one point that I thought could point towards him being town. I don't have to convince you, you already know you're scum. But for everyone else, my play D2 made no sense as scum. Sloosh was inevitably going to be lynched, and by putting myself at the forefront of the switch back to MZ, I'd be really damn suspicious even if I secured a mislynch D2. And since gobble didn't post for that entire day, and he got modkilled for not voting, I'm gonna go ahead and guess that you couldn't get ahold of him to plan a strategy. And even if he was there to switch over, then that would put the entire scumteam on the mislynch wagon. Bad bad bad bad bad plan. You don´t have to convince me, I know you´re scum, but that doesn´t mean I can´t tell people why your play made sense as scum. You mean like me putting myself in the spotlight on the jwz lynch? You knew Palmar was also trying to get people´s votes over to MZ, so you knew there might still have been a chance to get the misslynch. You´re making things up about me knowing gobble wouldn´t be there where just gobble voting would have secured the misynch for you. I guess you were planning with gobble´s vote and thus only needed like 2 people to switch their votes. This wasn´t that unrealistic. You can't know something that isn't true And no, me derailing a scum wagon onto town would have looked much worse than you defending a townie. So you're saying I concocted a plan to force the entire scumteam onto MZ in order to prevent a sloosh lynch that would occur the following day, anyway, and reveal that the switch was clearly scum motivated? And I did so without knowing whether or not gobble would actually be there to support my daring ploy, which makes even the chance of getting a mislynch out of it pretty unlikely?
The mislynch going through or not going through is almost irrelevant, the action was the same. And you were not nearly the player under the most pressure. So it seems like it didn´t look that much worse. Also the point about standing out from the crowd is kinda the same for both of us regarding these actions.
Somehow people didn´t really come to the conclusion that your vote switch was scum motivated for quite some time. So it was not as clear as you make it out to be. I can only guess what was the case with gobble. I as town certainly didn´t assume that he would not vote and get modkilled.
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Going to bed now. I won´t be able to post here for the most part of tomorrow but I should have plenty of time on Monday.
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I'll be here for just a bit and write what I can-
@Fuba:
Regarding pushing lynches
I haven’t read all your games, but I took a look at the two you linked. In Basterd Mini Mafia, it seems like you pushed the WoS case and continued to do so until you died. In White Flag, it looks like you pushed hzflank in two posts.
In both games you went idle or died shortly after raising the issue, so it’s not like it’s a long string of posts on the people. But, only looking at the two games you posted, I don’t see support for the idea that you make cases and drop them. Anyway, we are talking meta so I can’t say too much for it either way.
On copchecks
I don’t disagree that mderg makes an unlikely cop check, but I think the problem is that scum loses ground even if I copcheck a town player. Obviously, it is worse for them if I check a scum player (and it becomes a loss if I catch a mafia with 2 already dead), but I feel like there’s still a strong incentive to try to roleblock the cop.
Just as evidence of this, if my n3 check (which was on fuba) had not been roleblocked, we would have won regardless of whether he was mafia or town. Without the roleblock, mafia loses. To me, this is really a razor-thin margin for scum to play with, so it’s hard for me to imagine they give up a roleblock when they are potentially so close to losing.
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Inevitability of slOosh lynch
I don't agree with Fuba's portrayal of the slOosh lynch as inevitable, just because it really ended up being so close.
I can't say for certani what scum was or wasn't thinking, but given that one vote (gobble) would have tipped the wagon I just have trouble believing scum felt it was inevitable.
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Another reason I'm still leaning fuba is that, let's pretend the plan fuba was talking about was successful. In that case, mafia ideally wants to bring up another person as a mislynch who can be suspicious. Gobble would almost certainly be suspicious if he had voted in the last few hours since his vote would have tipped the scales.
Potentially, he would have looked even worse if I had revealed my cop check (and I probably would have if we lynched M_Z because I would have been worried about dying that night), but this is sort of an side issue since scum wouldn't know that.
Anyway, if we think about it like that, then Fuba's case on sqrt makes a little more sense-
- If sqrt doesn't swap, he can be attacked for being inconsistent (swapping D1, not swapping D2)
- If sqrt does swap, it reinforces fuba's point (swapping late, and swapping onto a town player)
So I could sort of see the sqrt case as a setup for the following day for fuba to reassert the case on sqrt.
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I'm out for a bit, might be back before deadline but not sure I have too much to add anyway.
I expect to die so I'll just say although I haven't enjoyed this game a whole lot, it's been interesting to play.
In terms of tomorrow, I think I'd still to lynch fuba. I certainly could be wrong and it's everyone's game, if you decide to vote mderg I don't really mind. If I wanted you to just sheep me, I probably would have told you to do so.
Either way, we can always talk more about it post-game.
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On June 08 2014 08:58 Amiko wrote:
I'll be here for just a bit and write what I can-
@Fuba:
Regarding pushing lynches
I haven’t read all your games, but I took a look at the two you linked. In Basterd Mini Mafia, it seems like you pushed the WoS case and continued to do so until you died. In White Flag, it looks like you pushed hzflank in two posts.
In both games you went idle or died shortly after raising the issue, so it’s not like it’s a long string of posts on the people. But, only looking at the two games you posted, I don’t see support for the idea that you make cases and drop them. Anyway, we are talking meta so I can’t say too much for it either way.
On copchecks
I don’t disagree that mderg makes an unlikely cop check, but I think the problem is that scum loses ground even if I copcheck a town player. Obviously, it is worse for them if I check a scum player (and it becomes a loss if I catch a mafia with 2 already dead), but I feel like there’s still a strong incentive to try to roleblock the cop.
Just as evidence of this, if my n3 check (which was on fuba) had not been roleblocked, we would have won regardless of whether he was mafia or town. Without the roleblock, mafia loses. To me, this is really a razor-thin margin for scum to play with, so it’s hard for me to imagine they give up a roleblock when they are potentially so close to losing.
Regarding pushing lynches:
If anything, that indicates that I only really push my cases as scum, rofl. Those were my only two scum games. That's not the point I was trying to make with those filters, anyway. If you want to see support for me making cases and dropping them, feel free to look at literally any other game.
On copchecks:
I can follow your reasoning, but in this case it's leading you to the incorrect answer.
On June 08 2014 09:00 Amiko wrote:
Inevitability of slOosh lynch
I don't agree with Fuba's portrayal of the slOosh lynch as inevitable, just because it really ended up being so close.
I can't say for certani what scum was or wasn't thinking, but given that one vote (gobble) would have tipped the wagon I just have trouble believing scum felt it was inevitable.
It was. From the perspective of scum, particularly with gobbles clearly not participating and no reason to count on him, there is no way sloosh wasn't getting lynched, and even if he wasn't then it would require literally THE ENTIRE SCUMTEAM to pile onto MZ, who will flip town. Then sloosh will INEVITABLY be lynched the next day, and it will INEVITABLY be clear that it was a scum switch. The #1 best play for scum at that point is to bus him.
At the time of the bus, they needed 1) gobbles to come back, 2) three townies to switch over to MZ. This is all while you're convincing everyone to vote for sloosh for the same reasons as MZ, but more so. So they not only have to convince three townies without making it look like they led the mislynch afterwards, but they have to do it while you are convincing people that sloosh is MZ 2.0. How is that not clearly a pretty much impossible task? How is bussing him at this point not an incredibly good and obvious idea?
His responses to me feel so damn transparently scum, it's infuriating. Look at his last responses to me. He says that the motivation for actions is irrelevant, it's only actions that count (I paraphrased, so he can't come back and say I'm "misquoting" him like his scumbuddy did. He ignores the motivation by ignoring my entire post in order to focus attention on the action, while I ask him to explain what my MOTIVATION was. He can't provide any motivation. It's impossible for him.). THAT IS 100% SCUM MINDSET. The entire point of a bus is to make it look like you're town through your actions, and hope people don't see the motivation behind it. I have absolutely no idea how you can believe that it makes sense for me as scum to try to switch the lynch in the last few hours when there's no reasonable motivation for it, and yet there's a treasure trove of motivation for mderg to do exactly what he did as scum.
I have provided scum motivation for his actions, he can't provide scum motivation for my actions.
On June 08 2014 05:15 mderg wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2014 05:08 Amiko wrote:
@Mderg:
I'd like your thoughts on this, even though it is speculative - if you are town, why did scum kill Alakaslam instead of you? I don´t know. I guess it was because scum was scared of a doc save on me or because I was leaning town on fuba.
You're ignoring your own good points exclusively because of the roleblock. There was no reason to kill alakaslam over mderg. Alakaslam did nothing, mderg did something. Mderg is 100% the right shot. And there's absolutely no way that mderg actually believed that scum was scared of a doc save on him. In no situation was anyone but Amiko being doc saved (sqrt had the rules confused, but there's no way for scum to know that). This reply is complete nonsense. Why would he need a complete nonsense answer to this question? Because he's scum.
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On June 08 2014 06:31 mderg wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2014 06:18 fuba wrote:On June 08 2014 06:10 mderg wrote:On June 08 2014 05:36 fuba wrote:On June 08 2014 05:16 Amiko wrote:
@Fuba re: N2 Roleblock
I think the thing is, from my point of view mderg looked was relatively towny for being on the right wagon.
I don't feel like the roleblock claim was really necessary for him to get 'town cred' (and it also seems like something scum wouldn't feel the need to do since no one was giving Slam townreads based on his roleblock claim, except maybe M_Z on the following day) and although it's something that helps his case, I feel like even without it he would be a fair pick for town.
If anything, I might have expected someone on the M_Z wagon to claim roleblock for town cred because they needed it more.
...Really, I was very surprised I wasn't roleblocked n2, that was the biggest reason I thought there must be a watcher in the game.
As an aside, I actually thought D2 that Palmar could have been softing watcher it with his references to a 'slam dunk' (which suggested to me that perhaps he was watcher, had watched Alakaslam, and had caught M_Z roleblocking), but it became clear that wasn't the case or he would have outed the check N2 for the sure win. I can't remember a single time that slam was ever actually in danger of being lynched despite not being able to remember a single contribution he made to the game. I contributed more than him and I've been called out multiple times for not contributing. The only thing that explains it for me is the roleblock. And yes, mderg looked towny. That is *exactly* the reason he did it. All of it. He switched to sloosh at a time where, I repeat, sloosh was GUARANTEED to be lynched. There was a very, very low probability that he could get out of it. Every vote was accounted for, even if they weren't placed. You can't look at it from the perspective of a townie - someone who's trying to find the right lynch. Look at it from the perspective of a scummer - someone who is trying to control the lynch for their own ends. They had no control of it anymore at that point. And keeping the entire scumteam on the town wagon would have been an absolutely terrible play. They needed someone off of MZ, and they couldn't avoid not lynching sloosh. Sloosh can't vote for himself, gobble has disappeared from the thread, and that would just leave mderg. Yes, his switch seemed strong, because he reiterated points that you brought up and he was actually lynching someone he knew for a fact to be scum. His switch was the best possible scum play at that point in the game. Compare that to what I did, which did absolutely nothing but make me look suspicious. What was my plan with that as scum? It looks like two of my scummates are going to be lynched/modkilled, so I go balls to the wall to save one of them when I know the alternate wagon I'm pushing is a mislynch? My actions D2 did me no favors whatsoever. I think your actions on day 2 made sense as scum. It was close to switching the lynch over and would have been enough to save sloosh, if gobble was there. In that case it would have worked hugely in your favor. But it didn´t work out for you. I don´t think I would have voted sloosh solely because of Amiko´s case. I still thought that MZ was the better lynch until sloosh put out a defense that contradicted with the one point that I thought could point towards him being town. I don't have to convince you, you already know you're scum. But for everyone else, my play D2 made no sense as scum. Sloosh was inevitably going to be lynched, and by putting myself at the forefront of the switch back to MZ, I'd be really damn suspicious even if I secured a mislynch D2. And since gobble didn't post for that entire day, and he got modkilled for not voting, I'm gonna go ahead and guess that you couldn't get ahold of him to plan a strategy. And even if he was there to switch over, then that would put the entire scumteam on the mislynch wagon. Bad bad bad bad bad plan. You don´t have to convince me, I know you´re scum, but that doesn´t mean I can´t tell people why your play made sense as scum. You mean like me putting myself in the spotlight on the jwz lynch? You knew Palmar was also trying to get people´s votes over to MZ, so you knew there might still have been a chance to get the misslynch. You´re making things up about me knowing gobble wouldn´t be there where just gobble voting would have secured the misynch for you. I guess you were planning with gobble´s vote and thus only needed like 2 people to switch their votes. This wasn´t that unrealistic.
Yeah, I "planned with gobble's vote" but didn't decide to discuss it with him in our QT. Or he wasn't in the QT so I went ahead and just put the entire scumteam on the shoulders of MIA gobble instead of doing a far more reasonable thing like bus the fuck out of sloosh.
On June 08 2014 06:22 mderg wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2014 05:51 fuba wrote:On June 08 2014 05:04 Amiko wrote:One point I raised during the end of D2 was that it was strange how fuba was concerned M_Z's lynch was going too easily, but was not concerned about the same thing on jabber. Here's the exchange between me and fuba: + Show Spoiler +On June 01 2014 09:10 Amiko wrote:
Okay here's another good point
@sqrt:
Yesterday fuba was content to go with a bandwagon on jabber. He kept his vote on jabber.
Today he is afraid of a bandwagon that is going too easily.
Yesterday's wagon went more easily. Today he is concerned. WAT On June 01 2014 09:11 fuba wrote:
This isn't a "too easy" argument from me. It's the argument that between two players that are relatively identical according to the reads of most players in the thread, this is the wagon that at least two scum are on. This lynch feels more uncertain than yesterday's, and more dangerous.
Hm, I guess it almost is a "too easy" argument, but I think the point still stands. And yes, I read people as town based on single posts all the time. If the rest of their filter is pretty "meh" to me, Seeing what I feel is a clear town mindset pretty much makes them town unless I have to completely reevaluate my reads and start from the beginning. I think there's a secondary point worth looking at regarding Fuba's play d2. Look at the beginning of his case on sqrt: + Show Spoiler +On May 31 2014 15:45 fuba wrote:
I'm glad you mentioned sqrt, because he's someone who's stuck out to me.
His reason for unvoting jabber and voting palmar was that lynches like that end up being wrong. It turns out that he was right, but isn't that a really, really strange reason to unvote someone when you have legitimate reasons to believe he's scum in front of you? Then he swaps back to jabber in order to get more information, even though he thinks palmar is scummier. He then unvotes jabber because of his defense. Not the content of his defense, because that was scummy. He basically unvoted because jabber gave A reason. It wasn't a "too scummy to be scum" argument, it was just - he gave a reason, I think he's town. Then while interacting with Chrom, he says that he doesn't think jabber is town (except he actually did explicitly say "I think he's town now."), but he thinks there's a possibility that jabber is town. This is a really strange thing to say as town because unless someone is somehow modconfirmed scum, there is always the possibility that they're town. That's a given, it's understood by everyone. But he reiterates the fact that he thinks jabber is scummy, but might be town, but might also be scum, about 3-4 times.
(cut)
Fuba is pointing to sqrt's willingness to vote and unvote on jabber D1 as scummy. He points out that this is suspicious partly because sqrt is still willing to say that jabber may be mafia. But, consider fuba's play d2, specifically when he is moving from sqrt to M_Z: + Show Spoiler +On June 01 2014 08:06 fuba wrote:
##Unvote
Something that's bugging me about this lynch is that if slOosh and MZ are generally considered to be scummy in similar ways, then scum could vote for either of them for generally the same reasons. So if they're not both scum, then it's far more likely that today will be a mislynch. SlOosh's last post made me feel like he's town, because he gave his reads instead of just ditching the thread when he's pretty definitely getting lynched. It could be a scum ploy, but his comments about Amiko make me really uneasy about lynching him. He appears to be looking at his own lynch from a townie's eyes. He sees that there are two similar wagons and the driving force behind one being stronger than the other is Amiko. He warns us against trusting anything Amiko says about non-MZ lynches D3 because if SlOosh is town then he knows Amiko's actions have brought scum within one mislynch of winning. That last post from SlOosh is possibly one of the towniest things in the thread, imo, because I find that mentality to be something that's pretty difficult to fake. He doesn't just say "don't trust Amiko", as I believe scum would do, but he took it a step farther and said not to trust him if he tries to push anything other than MZ D3. That is what I find so townie about this post.
If I have to vote for one or the other, at the moment, I'd ##Vote: Meapak_Ziphh
It bugs me that Palmar hasn't returned to the thread before this lynch, since he's on the MZ wagon but said he's be up for a SlOosh lynch. Dunno if I find him scummy for it, but given my current view of this as a scum-controlled lynch, his absence is allowing what I believe is going to be a mislynch to happen over his top scumread. Here, I think fuba is doing something along the lines of what he has accused sqrt of doing - fuba is basically using the idea that the majority vote would lead to a mislynch. There are some differences, to be fair. Fuba says he is townreading slOosh (and Haru and sqrt seem to feel the same way), so it's different from D1 sqrt who still suspected jabber. I think fuba's reasons are still a little different, too - he is saying that the two are scummy for the same reasons. From my point of view, the scummiest things on both players were the same, except applied more to slOosh. If you went with Palmar's argument (M_Z is scum because he called Palmar town after Palmar called M_Z scum), then the scummiest things on the players were different. I still would like you to explain this a little more fuba. My reasoning had very little to do with the actual cases on the players. It was about the nature of the lynch itself. The basic logic behind it was: if everyone says they will vote on one of these two players, and one of those players is scum, then scum's goal is to sway the lynch towards the townie (turns out that they tried to do that but were unable to). This doesn't take into account your force behind the scum lynch, though, which was a pretty big mistake on my part. I basically overestimated the sway that scum had in that situation. The base logic behind that makes sense but as you´ve also already said scum generally wants to split their votes. So I think that reasoning is kinda wrong, in that situation scum can´t change the situation too much just based on votes. The leading force for the sloosh lynch was Amiko who was very townie and besides his case there was actually not much else brought up about sloosh. I think there were actually more people trying to sway votes to MZ, so I don´t get how it could have seemed like scum were trying to direct to the sloosh lynch.
Points out that scum want to split their votes, says that my scumteam and I were all ready to pile onto a mislynch to save someone who would be lynched anyway the next day.
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On June 08 2014 06:10 mderg wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2014 05:36 fuba wrote:On June 08 2014 05:16 Amiko wrote:
@Fuba re: N2 Roleblock
I think the thing is, from my point of view mderg looked was relatively towny for being on the right wagon.
I don't feel like the roleblock claim was really necessary for him to get 'town cred' (and it also seems like something scum wouldn't feel the need to do since no one was giving Slam townreads based on his roleblock claim, except maybe M_Z on the following day) and although it's something that helps his case, I feel like even without it he would be a fair pick for town.
If anything, I might have expected someone on the M_Z wagon to claim roleblock for town cred because they needed it more.
...Really, I was very surprised I wasn't roleblocked n2, that was the biggest reason I thought there must be a watcher in the game.
As an aside, I actually thought D2 that Palmar could have been softing watcher it with his references to a 'slam dunk' (which suggested to me that perhaps he was watcher, had watched Alakaslam, and had caught M_Z roleblocking), but it became clear that wasn't the case or he would have outed the check N2 for the sure win. I can't remember a single time that slam was ever actually in danger of being lynched despite not being able to remember a single contribution he made to the game. I contributed more than him and I've been called out multiple times for not contributing. The only thing that explains it for me is the roleblock. And yes, mderg looked towny. That is *exactly* the reason he did it. All of it. He switched to sloosh at a time where, I repeat, sloosh was GUARANTEED to be lynched. There was a very, very low probability that he could get out of it. Every vote was accounted for, even if they weren't placed. You can't look at it from the perspective of a townie - someone who's trying to find the right lynch. Look at it from the perspective of a scummer - someone who is trying to control the lynch for their own ends. They had no control of it anymore at that point. And keeping the entire scumteam on the town wagon would have been an absolutely terrible play. They needed someone off of MZ, and they couldn't avoid not lynching sloosh. Sloosh can't vote for himself, gobble has disappeared from the thread, and that would just leave mderg. Yes, his switch seemed strong, because he reiterated points that you brought up and he was actually lynching someone he knew for a fact to be scum. His switch was the best possible scum play at that point in the game. Compare that to what I did, which did absolutely nothing but make me look suspicious. What was my plan with that as scum? It looks like two of my scummates are going to be lynched/modkilled, so I go balls to the wall to save one of them when I know the alternate wagon I'm pushing is a mislynch? My actions D2 did me no favors whatsoever. I think your actions on day 2 made sense as scum. It was close to switching the lynch over and would have been enough to save sloosh, if gobble was there. In that case it would have worked hugely in your favor. But it didn´t work out for you. I don´t think I would have voted sloosh solely because of Amiko´s case. I still thought that MZ was the better lynch until sloosh put out a defense that contradicted with the one point that I thought could point towards him being town.
He shouldn't need to think that he wouldn't have voted sloosh solely based on Amiko's case. If he's town then he KNOWS that he didn't.
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Sorry for spamming, but I want to reiterate: the scum goal during the sloosh lynch wasn't to save sloosh, it was to give them the best shot at winning the game. Mderg bussing is EASILY the best explanation. If I was scum, my actions at the time had the sole goal of keeping sloosh alive, because there's absolutely no endgame plan. Look beyond the sloosh lynch. See the state of each possible scumteam if their assumed goal is accomplished. There's the one in which the scumteam does nothing with the intent to actually win the game (fuba scum), and then there's the scumteam that has acted with the intent to win the game (mderg scum). Me making it to endgame doesn't invalidate the point I'm making, so don't let that distract you.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
Day 5
Amiko the Cop has been shot!
This day ends in 48 hours at 01:00 GMT (+00:00). Whoever has the most votes on them at that time gets lynched.
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Roleblocked!
As expected.
GG Amiko, I tried to save you...
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/1BmS4Sp.jpg)
