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On June 07 2014 08:41 Amiko wrote:Going through thread, was out longer than I expected. @Fuba: On mderg with gobble & M_ZI actually liked this point. I can’t put too much stock in it (if mderg is scum, Palmar is town and he was also pushing for M_Z around the same time) but it was something on mderg I hadn’t looked at. On mderg vote timingI think your point isn’t bad, but I do think scum could believe that sqrt would change his vote. At least, when talk started up about vote changing I wasn’t particularly surprised to see sqrt move his vote given how he had reacted to the votes the prior day. Can you explain what you mean by this a little more? Show nested quote +On June 07 2014 02:57 fuba wrote:
Huh, palmar's kinda in the same boat as mderg in this situation, except he doesn't switch. My instinct tells me this is evidence of palmar being more likely town than mderg. Dunno though, would have to give that a bit more thought than I have time for atm.
Trainpost.
Essentially, I meant that if its the ideal time to start bussing, then the fact that he didn't should indicate towniness. Of course, this assumes he was around, that the situation was as I say it was, and that he agreed to switch.
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I'm sad that the worst thing I've done all a game is make cases :/
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On June 07 2014 09:06 Amiko wrote:
On Slam’s roleblock claim-
Palmar questions the possibility that if Slam was getting townread for the roleblock, it may make mderg more likely to fake the claim.
Alakaslam claimed here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=35#685)
I don’t see any real discussion of Slam or the roleblock in a positive way. Actually, I think the little discussion we had of Slam was a null read from sqrt (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=36#710). Nobody really seemed to consider the roleblock.
So, I still tend to think mafia was more likely to roleblock mderg than not use the block.
I agree, hence why I am voting fuba. I'm just not available for filter diving right now and I'll be dead during the night. I wanted it brought up so people can read it during the night.
On June 07 2014 09:06 Amiko wrote:
@Palmar:
I still think the best reasons to suspect fuba being scum is that he makes a case on gobble, basically drops it, then makes a case on sqrt, and again basically drops it. It's hard to say that's scummier than you, though, when I don't feel like you really explored other options.
I still feel pretty good about lynching both you and fuba, and I still I think the best way to effect that is lynching you first.
Still reading though :3
The best reason to lynch fuba over me is that at every turn I have been at the forefront of discussion, and he has wobbled along. Mafia doesn't like sticking their necks out there.
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But yes, for mafia, his play is relatively "clean".
But there is a reason he's pretty clean and I've been pretty blatantly dirty at times. One of us has perfect information and it isn't me.
Good night, gg.
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Lol, what part of my play makes you think I have all the information?
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On June 07 2014 09:19 fuba wrote:
Lol, what part of my play makes you think I have all the information?
The part where you are mafia bro
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To be honest fuba, if you're town, optimal play for you is probably to vote for yourself.
Because if you're somehow town, which I don't think you are, that means mderg is the remaining mafia. And the chances of you surviving the last day when I flip town are almost none.
There's far more chance that I can pull it off.
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So because you're not voting yourself, I conclude you must be mafia.
QED.
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In all honesty, I'd considered it, but we can't vote for ourselves.
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rofl
Day 7.
I'm about to die
I'm okay with it.
Haru will you hold my hand?
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gg Palmar, if game continues hopefully we'll keep it interesting.
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Never play scared again Amiko. It's one way ticket to losing games.
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And I didn't play anti-town. All I did was being wrong on one out of my 3 scum guesses. Good enough reason to lynch, I guess.
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Night 4
Palmar the Vanilla Town has been lynched
Night ends in 24 hours at 01:00 GMT (+00:00). Please send all night actions to Blazinghand, Koshi, and myself!
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
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Okay, here's what gonna happen.
Either Amiko or I will die this time around (I'm guessing amiko), and the other is gonna be roleblocked.
And then, when it's day, town is gonna lynch fuba to a win. Got it?
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(It's n4)
That's pretty much what I think as well. I don't mind heading to obs a little ahead of you guys.
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While you're still alive, amiko, I would like a percentage of what you think the odds are of fuba being mafia vs mderg being mafia.
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EPT
![[image loading]](http://img2-2.timeinc.net/toh/i/steps/lamppost-toutX.jpg)
