EPTDetention Mafia - Page 71
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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HaruRH
Singapore2780 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On May 30 2014 11:58 fuba wrote: I've gotta assume your question about sqrt is when you said that I needed to respond to his case. That is something that I've already done multiple times. I contributed my lynch target, I contributed my reasoning on my lynch target, and I hoped that he would flip scum so that I wouldn't have to deal with nonsense like this after D1. That is pretty much all I ever do D1, give or take random small comments if I have the time. If we disagree about what "contributing" means, we're going to keep doing so. I see no reason to form a read on every single person in the game on D1 when there is very little to go on, a lot of those reads will change because of the flip, and the majority of those reads are going to be really null for me, because I obsess and see possible explanations for situations that most people don't (An example is what I said about jabber's scumteam from last game knowing if he was lying. Amiko said only himself and scum should think about that, and yet I did.) I ignored no questions, as you haven't asked me a question. you made a demand that I do something that I've already done repeatedly. You've actually ignored my questions. Repeatedly. I've also not twisted your words. I've looked at your words in context, and explained what they meant even if you didn't explicitly say it, as I saw them at the time. That is my means of scumhunting, a thing that only townies do. I'd like an answer to my questions now. Hey Fuba- I have other things to bring up, but here's one thing I considered - If you agree with me (that the line of thought I suggested is one that should only come from me or scum) isn't it fairly suspicious that you had that line of thought? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 08 2014 04:21 HaruRH wrote: See. for the whole night, no responses. Time to post fanfics Could you post questions/concerns you have for mderg or fuba instead? I feel like if you recognize that there isn't much action, the best way is to bring up points. (I don't mind if you write some fanfics too) | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I raised some suspicion of Haru on D1 and again later http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=25#499 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=34#666 We now know that Haru is confirmed town. Between mderg and Fuba, do you see either of these players indicating they may want to raise Haru as a mislynch later on in the game? Fuba seems to townread Haru somewhat and doesn't comment on my points on Haru much other than that- + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2014 02:32 fuba wrote: Oh, and I keep bouncing around regarding sqrt. I don't see scum|sqrt preparing to scumread Amiko after the SlOosh lynch, because he would KNOW Amiko is town and KNOW SlOosh is scum. It would be a really weird chain of reasoning to then say that he thought Amiko was scum for pushing the mislynch so hard. Makes me think both Haru and sqrt are town, because I dunno, it's weird that they both agreed on that and came to the conclusion independently when they can't possibly both be scum. At the same time, saying that I seem townie to him (sqrt) for my thought process in a post entirely devoted to calling him scum makes me doubt my assessment of the sloosh situation. Then there's the fact that SlOosh spent the entire game looking for contradictions in peoples' play, and called out MZ, myself, and alakaslam for things he thought were contradictory, but ignored the contradictory statements in sqrt's filter, instead calling him townie for them. However, I'm placing more weight on the former than the latter because I don't want to give slOosh's last post too much sway. K, srsly now. Responding to haru XD On June 05 2014 02:57 fuba wrote: Response to the points brought up by Haru: I don't see any reason to take much of what SlOosh said in that last post seriously anymore. He's confirmed scum, so whatever he said at that point was meant to drag us into wifom. So we shouldn't let it, and ignore most of it, as I'm trying to do with his comments about sqrt. Analysis >>> scum wifom. As for me sheeping the MZ lynch, I should clarify I guess. MZ had been a prime lynch target for the better part of 2 days at that point. There was no way anyone I could suggest was being lynched over MZ even if I thought there was a better lynch. So I saw no point in analyzing anything that might prove pointless, rather than working on my two final projects that are due next week. Technically I wasn't even being lazy, I was just prioritizing my time. I just checked out the votes from the SlOosh lynch again, and I feel like there's a really strong chance that all scum were on the MZ wagon D2, or the last one could have switched over and gotten a mislynch. Amiko was right in that since I was wrong, I was giving scum the chance to switch over to MZ easily. The fact that they didn't makes me feel that one of Palmar/sqrt/Haru is scum. I've already explained why I don't think sqrt and Haru are scum, so that leaves me with Palmar for tomorrow's lynch. mderg does show a little more attention to my points- + Show Spoiler + On May 29 2014 05:29 mderg wrote: Regarding HaruRH: I agree with Amiko that Haru´s play has been strange. The part about the odds is not something I would take seriously. To me it seemed like some kind of joke post. The second point Amiko raises about Haru is definitely strange play. It kinda seemed like throwing a fake lifeline to jabber in order to have some point against him regardless of how jabber continues to play. The third point is something that could go either way. It´s difficult to get a clear read out of setup discussion. So it´s definitely worth it to keep a closer eye on HaruRH. On June 01 2014 18:52 mderg wrote: In general I think scum is either MZ or likely to be found on the MZ wagon. I´m rather confident that it´s one between MZ, Palmar, sqrt, HaruRH. I don´t think it´s fuba, he started that and put himself in the spotlight in a way you probably wouldn´t want to as scum. The voteswitch at the end was strange because I don´t think it was going too easily. I mean the case was solid and based on sloosh´s whole game, and there were still like 3 people voting MZ. On June 04 2014 22:18 mderg wrote: HaruRH was quite active the last few days and seems to be trying to solve the game. His plan of lynching sloosh´s scumlist is based is strange, though. It has solid reasoning behind it but it hugely based on assumptions about sloosh´s intentions. Coincidentally I don´t think HaruRH was on that list. I´m still leaning town on him but this is definitely in the back of my mind. Looking at these two, it's tough to make a good call. On the one hand, mderg picks up on my points a little more, which initially would suggest to me that he might be looking at Haru as a potential mislynch. However, fuba basically ignores the points, so it's hard to say that's really towny. I think looking at the rest of the game, I like mderg's posts on Haru. He does seem to keep his eye on Haru through the game, and eventually seems to lean town on Haru despite the fact that I haven't really relented at that time. In other words, I feel that after M_Z dies, Haru should have been seen as a good mislynch candiate, but that's about when mderg is giving him a townread. So, although he gave the case more attention, it doesn't strike me as the way scum would approach Haru. Thoughts anyone? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 07 2014 08:51 Palmar wrote: I was talking about fuba backtracking on me being mafia. Also since I didn't answer this yesterday, I didn't make much of this point because I thought mderg was also backtracking somewhat on Palmar. + Show Spoiler + On June 07 2014 03:50 mderg wrote: This makes me unsure about Palmar being scum. The advice seems like genuine advice from a townie. I definitely have to think about that. Like a lot of things this game (inactivity/refusal to discuss the game, weird vote movements, etc.) it's something I would usually find suspicious but cannot attribute to scum because I know town players have done this as well. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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mderg
Germany1739 Posts
On June 08 2014 04:21 HaruRH wrote: See. for the whole night, no responses. Time to post fanfics It´s not time to post fanfics. Maybe you should ask questions and try to figure out the game. It would be better than complaining about inactivity despite not posting anything in the time period you´re talking about. Feel free to ask me any questions, everyone. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On June 01 2014 09:10 Amiko wrote: Okay here's another good point @sqrt: Yesterday fuba was content to go with a bandwagon on jabber. He kept his vote on jabber. Today he is afraid of a bandwagon that is going too easily. Yesterday's wagon went more easily. Today he is concerned. WAT On June 01 2014 09:11 fuba wrote: This isn't a "too easy" argument from me. It's the argument that between two players that are relatively identical according to the reads of most players in the thread, this is the wagon that at least two scum are on. This lynch feels more uncertain than yesterday's, and more dangerous. Hm, I guess it almost is a "too easy" argument, but I think the point still stands. And yes, I read people as town based on single posts all the time. If the rest of their filter is pretty "meh" to me, Seeing what I feel is a clear town mindset pretty much makes them town unless I have to completely reevaluate my reads and start from the beginning. I think there's a secondary point worth looking at regarding Fuba's play d2. Look at the beginning of his case on sqrt: + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2014 15:45 fuba wrote: I'm glad you mentioned sqrt, because he's someone who's stuck out to me. His reason for unvoting jabber and voting palmar was that lynches like that end up being wrong. It turns out that he was right, but isn't that a really, really strange reason to unvote someone when you have legitimate reasons to believe he's scum in front of you? Then he swaps back to jabber in order to get more information, even though he thinks palmar is scummier. He then unvotes jabber because of his defense. Not the content of his defense, because that was scummy. He basically unvoted because jabber gave A reason. It wasn't a "too scummy to be scum" argument, it was just - he gave a reason, I think he's town. Then while interacting with Chrom, he says that he doesn't think jabber is town (except he actually did explicitly say "I think he's town now."), but he thinks there's a possibility that jabber is town. This is a really strange thing to say as town because unless someone is somehow modconfirmed scum, there is always the possibility that they're town. That's a given, it's understood by everyone. But he reiterates the fact that he thinks jabber is scummy, but might be town, but might also be scum, about 3-4 times. (cut) Fuba is pointing to sqrt's willingness to vote and unvote on jabber D1 as scummy. He points out that this is suspicious partly because sqrt is still willing to say that jabber may be mafia. But, consider fuba's play d2, specifically when he is moving from sqrt to M_Z: + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2014 08:06 fuba wrote: ##Unvote Something that's bugging me about this lynch is that if slOosh and MZ are generally considered to be scummy in similar ways, then scum could vote for either of them for generally the same reasons. So if they're not both scum, then it's far more likely that today will be a mislynch. SlOosh's last post made me feel like he's town, because he gave his reads instead of just ditching the thread when he's pretty definitely getting lynched. It could be a scum ploy, but his comments about Amiko make me really uneasy about lynching him. He appears to be looking at his own lynch from a townie's eyes. He sees that there are two similar wagons and the driving force behind one being stronger than the other is Amiko. He warns us against trusting anything Amiko says about non-MZ lynches D3 because if SlOosh is town then he knows Amiko's actions have brought scum within one mislynch of winning. That last post from SlOosh is possibly one of the towniest things in the thread, imo, because I find that mentality to be something that's pretty difficult to fake. He doesn't just say "don't trust Amiko", as I believe scum would do, but he took it a step farther and said not to trust him if he tries to push anything other than MZ D3. That is what I find so townie about this post. If I have to vote for one or the other, at the moment, I'd ##Vote: Meapak_Ziphh It bugs me that Palmar hasn't returned to the thread before this lynch, since he's on the MZ wagon but said he's be up for a SlOosh lynch. Dunno if I find him scummy for it, but given my current view of this as a scum-controlled lynch, his absence is allowing what I believe is going to be a mislynch to happen over his top scumread. Here, I think fuba is doing something along the lines of what he has accused sqrt of doing - fuba is basically using the idea that the majority vote would lead to a mislynch. There are some differences, to be fair. Fuba says he is townreading slOosh (and Haru and sqrt seem to feel the same way), so it's different from D1 sqrt who still suspected jabber. I think fuba's reasons are still a little different, too - he is saying that the two are scummy for the same reasons. From my point of view, the scummiest things on both players were the same, except applied more to slOosh. If you went with Palmar's argument (M_Z is scum because he called Palmar town after Palmar called M_Z scum), then the scummiest things on the players were different. I still would like you to explain this a little more fuba. | ||
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fuba
United States663 Posts
Thought it might possibly be helpful to have a look at my scum games. Typically they stress me out to no end, because I have intense trouble actually lying in a game of mafia. I'm pretty sure there are only two, unless you add in the one I had to withdraw from (again, they stress me the hell out XD). http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/418641-basterd-mini-mafia?user=mkfuba07&view=all http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/432880-white-flag-mafia?user=mkfuba07 I'm terrible at describing my self-meta, but I'll spell out things that I think are relevant. In both games, I was essentially caught D1. I wormed my way into a myslynch on VA in Basterd because he wasn't there to defend himself, rofl. I'm apparently pretty obvious as mafia, so I actually found it funny when Palmar said I played a pretty clean scum game. I don't play clean scum games. It doesn't happen because I'm relatively incapable of doing so. General defense thoughts: As for me posting cases and not following up on them, I've done that in probably every game I've played. I write my case, I see if anyone agrees. If I don't get a positive response I assume I'm wrong, and I simply move on. I do not push cases, I let the cases push themselves. The exceptions are early game, when I try to be as sure of a lynch as I can be and hope that I've found a scum lynch target, and exceptionally late game, where I can focus my obsessive thoughts on the individual actions of 2-3 players and see whose actions make most sense from a scum perspective. All around, this self-description of my own town play accurately depicts what's gone on this game. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/407704-doctor-who-mafia?user=mkfuba07&page=3 My vote switch to deconduo at the end of Doctor Who mafia is an example of what I did all day yesterday. While I agreed that it was unlikely that scum held their roleblock for towncred, I found reasonable explanations for all of mderg's actions from a scum perspective. Deconduo made little sense based on the setup/generally-understood mechanics of the game, but I convinced everyone to vote him despite a seemingly impossible cop fakeclaim. I'll try one last time to make you see that mderg is scum, and suggest that it's certainly possible that mderg knew he wouldn't be cop checked after D2 because of his apparent quick jump onto the sloosh wagon. Which of us would have considered mderg to be the best target of a cop check that day? No one. Even if he didn't know this, the chances of him guessing who the cop is and roleblocking them was what, 1/8? Weigh that against the towncred gained from being roleblocked after "quickly" jumping on the sloosh wagon. 1/8 (or something) chance to possibly stop the cop from checking him (if he's even a likely cop check target, which he wasn't) compared to nigh-untouchability for the rest of the game. We accepted it because it seemed reasonable, but it also made him appear untouchable. Is that something a non-mderg-including scumteam planned on doing with that roleblock? Like, you're basically saying that I, as the last scum and roleblocker, ensured that I couldn't win the game, when I could have avoided it entirely. People are clearing mderg for something that scum have sole control over - when it is actually stronger indication that scum were trying to make mderg look like he's town. I'm almost afraid to ask this question, but do you think that given my ability to consider situations like I've shown in this game as well as previous games, that after finally succeeding in not being killed D1 as scum, I would throw it away by nearly confirming mderg as town in the eyes of the rest of town? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I'd like your thoughts on this, even though it is speculative - if you are town, why did scum kill Alakaslam instead of you? | ||
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fuba
United States663 Posts
On June 08 2014 04:36 Amiko wrote: Hey Fuba- I have other things to bring up, but here's one thing I considered - If you agree with me (that the line of thought I suggested is one that should only come from me or scum) isn't it fairly suspicious that you had that line of thought? No. I brought up the point that if jabber didn't know the scumteam from the first game was posted, then he still knew that his ex-scummates were in the game, and would know that he's lying. You actually got that from me. You then said that you felt that only yourself and scum would think of that, and I disagreed because I am not scum and I thought of that. It's really my only strength in mafia - considering scenarios. I'm not a case-pusher, I'm not a high-poster, I'm not a town leader. Unless I'm really sure about something, I present my ideas and let the thread use them as they will. | ||
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mderg
Germany1739 Posts
On June 08 2014 05:08 Amiko wrote: @Mderg: I'd like your thoughts on this, even though it is speculative - if you are town, why did scum kill Alakaslam instead of you? I don´t know. I guess it was because scum was scared of a doc save on me or because I was leaning town on fuba. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I think the thing is, from my point of view mderg looked was relatively towny for being on the right wagon. I don't feel like the roleblock claim was really necessary for him to get 'town cred' (and it also seems like something scum wouldn't feel the need to do since no one was giving Slam townreads based on his roleblock claim, except maybe M_Z on the following day) and although it's something that helps his case, I feel like even without it he would be a fair pick for town. If anything, I might have expected someone on the M_Z wagon to claim roleblock for town cred because they needed it more. ...Really, I was very surprised I wasn't roleblocked n2, that was the biggest reason I thought there must be a watcher in the game. As an aside, I actually thought D2 that Palmar could have been softing watcher it with his references to a 'slam dunk' (which suggested to me that perhaps he was watcher, had watched Alakaslam, and had caught M_Z roleblocking), but it became clear that wasn't the case or he would have outed the check N2 for the sure win. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I didn't look at the meta stuff, I have to step out for a bit but will try to give it a look before tonight. Kind of busy day today :3 | ||
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fuba
United States663 Posts
On June 08 2014 04:47 Amiko wrote: @Whoever: I raised some suspicion of Haru on D1 and again later http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=25#499 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=34#666 We now know that Haru is confirmed town. Between mderg and Fuba, do you see either of these players indicating they may want to raise Haru as a mislynch later on in the game? Fuba seems to townread Haru somewhat and doesn't comment on my points on Haru much other than that- + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2014 02:32 fuba wrote: Oh, and I keep bouncing around regarding sqrt. I don't see scum|sqrt preparing to scumread Amiko after the SlOosh lynch, because he would KNOW Amiko is town and KNOW SlOosh is scum. It would be a really weird chain of reasoning to then say that he thought Amiko was scum for pushing the mislynch so hard. Makes me think both Haru and sqrt are town, because I dunno, it's weird that they both agreed on that and came to the conclusion independently when they can't possibly both be scum. At the same time, saying that I seem townie to him (sqrt) for my thought process in a post entirely devoted to calling him scum makes me doubt my assessment of the sloosh situation. Then there's the fact that SlOosh spent the entire game looking for contradictions in peoples' play, and called out MZ, myself, and alakaslam for things he thought were contradictory, but ignored the contradictory statements in sqrt's filter, instead calling him townie for them. However, I'm placing more weight on the former than the latter because I don't want to give slOosh's last post too much sway. K, srsly now. Responding to haru XD On June 05 2014 02:57 fuba wrote: Response to the points brought up by Haru: I don't see any reason to take much of what SlOosh said in that last post seriously anymore. He's confirmed scum, so whatever he said at that point was meant to drag us into wifom. So we shouldn't let it, and ignore most of it, as I'm trying to do with his comments about sqrt. Analysis >>> scum wifom. As for me sheeping the MZ lynch, I should clarify I guess. MZ had been a prime lynch target for the better part of 2 days at that point. There was no way anyone I could suggest was being lynched over MZ even if I thought there was a better lynch. So I saw no point in analyzing anything that might prove pointless, rather than working on my two final projects that are due next week. Technically I wasn't even being lazy, I was just prioritizing my time. I just checked out the votes from the SlOosh lynch again, and I feel like there's a really strong chance that all scum were on the MZ wagon D2, or the last one could have switched over and gotten a mislynch. Amiko was right in that since I was wrong, I was giving scum the chance to switch over to MZ easily. The fact that they didn't makes me feel that one of Palmar/sqrt/Haru is scum. I've already explained why I don't think sqrt and Haru are scum, so that leaves me with Palmar for tomorrow's lynch. mderg does show a little more attention to my points- + Show Spoiler + On May 29 2014 05:29 mderg wrote: Regarding HaruRH: I agree with Amiko that Haru´s play has been strange. The part about the odds is not something I would take seriously. To me it seemed like some kind of joke post. The second point Amiko raises about Haru is definitely strange play. It kinda seemed like throwing a fake lifeline to jabber in order to have some point against him regardless of how jabber continues to play. The third point is something that could go either way. It´s difficult to get a clear read out of setup discussion. So it´s definitely worth it to keep a closer eye on HaruRH. On June 01 2014 18:52 mderg wrote: In general I think scum is either MZ or likely to be found on the MZ wagon. I´m rather confident that it´s one between MZ, Palmar, sqrt, HaruRH. I don´t think it´s fuba, he started that and put himself in the spotlight in a way you probably wouldn´t want to as scum. The voteswitch at the end was strange because I don´t think it was going too easily. I mean the case was solid and based on sloosh´s whole game, and there were still like 3 people voting MZ. On June 04 2014 22:18 mderg wrote: HaruRH was quite active the last few days and seems to be trying to solve the game. His plan of lynching sloosh´s scumlist is based is strange, though. It has solid reasoning behind it but it hugely based on assumptions about sloosh´s intentions. Coincidentally I don´t think HaruRH was on that list. I´m still leaning town on him but this is definitely in the back of my mind. Looking at these two, it's tough to make a good call. On the one hand, mderg picks up on my points a little more, which initially would suggest to me that he might be looking at Haru as a potential mislynch. However, fuba basically ignores the points, so it's hard to say that's really towny. I think looking at the rest of the game, I like mderg's posts on Haru. He does seem to keep his eye on Haru through the game, and eventually seems to lean town on Haru despite the fact that I haven't really relented at that time. In other words, I feel that after M_Z dies, Haru should have been seen as a good mislynch candiate, but that's about when mderg is giving him a townread. So, although he gave the case more attention, it doesn't strike me as the way scum would approach Haru. Thoughts anyone? I found Haru to basically be town since he and sqrt both said that they thought you were scum during the sloosh lynch. It would have been such an incredibly odd move for scum (I found it odd for anyone, but particularly because scum at the time would have known that you were pushing a scum lynch), and since two of them had the same exact thought I felt it could have only come from town. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I was just seeing if either of you felt the other might be picking up on the points more - I think I raised a few good points on Haru and I feel like scum might have seen him as a potential mislynch. But, I don't feel either of you really picked up on him as someone you would want to lynch, so I was curious if either of you saw anything in the other's filter that might change my mind. (ok gone!) | ||
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fuba
United States663 Posts
On June 08 2014 05:16 Amiko wrote: @Fuba re: N2 Roleblock I think the thing is, from my point of view mderg looked was relatively towny for being on the right wagon. I don't feel like the roleblock claim was really necessary for him to get 'town cred' (and it also seems like something scum wouldn't feel the need to do since no one was giving Slam townreads based on his roleblock claim, except maybe M_Z on the following day) and although it's something that helps his case, I feel like even without it he would be a fair pick for town. If anything, I might have expected someone on the M_Z wagon to claim roleblock for town cred because they needed it more. ...Really, I was very surprised I wasn't roleblocked n2, that was the biggest reason I thought there must be a watcher in the game. As an aside, I actually thought D2 that Palmar could have been softing watcher it with his references to a 'slam dunk' (which suggested to me that perhaps he was watcher, had watched Alakaslam, and had caught M_Z roleblocking), but it became clear that wasn't the case or he would have outed the check N2 for the sure win. I can't remember a single time that slam was ever actually in danger of being lynched despite not being able to remember a single contribution he made to the game. I contributed more than him and I've been called out multiple times for not contributing. The only thing that explains it for me is the roleblock. And yes, mderg looked towny. That is *exactly* the reason he did it. All of it. He switched to sloosh at a time where, I repeat, sloosh was GUARANTEED to be lynched. There was a very, very low probability that he could get out of it. Every vote was accounted for, even if they weren't placed. You can't look at it from the perspective of a townie - someone who's trying to find the right lynch. Look at it from the perspective of a scummer - someone who is trying to control the lynch for their own ends. They had no control of it anymore at that point. And keeping the entire scumteam on the town wagon would have been an absolutely terrible play. They needed someone off of MZ, and they couldn't avoid not lynching sloosh. Sloosh can't vote for himself, gobble has disappeared from the thread, and that would just leave mderg. Yes, his switch seemed strong, because he reiterated points that you brought up and he was actually lynching someone he knew for a fact to be scum. His switch was the best possible scum play at that point in the game. Compare that to what I did, which did absolutely nothing but make me look suspicious. What was my plan with that as scum? It looks like two of my scummates are going to be lynched/modkilled, so I go balls to the wall to save one of them when I know the alternate wagon I'm pushing is a mislynch? My actions D2 did me no favors whatsoever. | ||
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fuba
United States663 Posts
On June 08 2014 05:04 Amiko wrote: One point I raised during the end of D2 was that it was strange how fuba was concerned M_Z's lynch was going too easily, but was not concerned about the same thing on jabber. Here's the exchange between me and fuba: + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2014 09:10 Amiko wrote: Okay here's another good point @sqrt: Yesterday fuba was content to go with a bandwagon on jabber. He kept his vote on jabber. Today he is afraid of a bandwagon that is going too easily. Yesterday's wagon went more easily. Today he is concerned. WAT On June 01 2014 09:11 fuba wrote: This isn't a "too easy" argument from me. It's the argument that between two players that are relatively identical according to the reads of most players in the thread, this is the wagon that at least two scum are on. This lynch feels more uncertain than yesterday's, and more dangerous. Hm, I guess it almost is a "too easy" argument, but I think the point still stands. And yes, I read people as town based on single posts all the time. If the rest of their filter is pretty "meh" to me, Seeing what I feel is a clear town mindset pretty much makes them town unless I have to completely reevaluate my reads and start from the beginning. I think there's a secondary point worth looking at regarding Fuba's play d2. Look at the beginning of his case on sqrt: + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2014 15:45 fuba wrote: I'm glad you mentioned sqrt, because he's someone who's stuck out to me. His reason for unvoting jabber and voting palmar was that lynches like that end up being wrong. It turns out that he was right, but isn't that a really, really strange reason to unvote someone when you have legitimate reasons to believe he's scum in front of you? Then he swaps back to jabber in order to get more information, even though he thinks palmar is scummier. He then unvotes jabber because of his defense. Not the content of his defense, because that was scummy. He basically unvoted because jabber gave A reason. It wasn't a "too scummy to be scum" argument, it was just - he gave a reason, I think he's town. Then while interacting with Chrom, he says that he doesn't think jabber is town (except he actually did explicitly say "I think he's town now."), but he thinks there's a possibility that jabber is town. This is a really strange thing to say as town because unless someone is somehow modconfirmed scum, there is always the possibility that they're town. That's a given, it's understood by everyone. But he reiterates the fact that he thinks jabber is scummy, but might be town, but might also be scum, about 3-4 times. (cut) Fuba is pointing to sqrt's willingness to vote and unvote on jabber D1 as scummy. He points out that this is suspicious partly because sqrt is still willing to say that jabber may be mafia. But, consider fuba's play d2, specifically when he is moving from sqrt to M_Z: + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2014 08:06 fuba wrote: ##Unvote Something that's bugging me about this lynch is that if slOosh and MZ are generally considered to be scummy in similar ways, then scum could vote for either of them for generally the same reasons. So if they're not both scum, then it's far more likely that today will be a mislynch. SlOosh's last post made me feel like he's town, because he gave his reads instead of just ditching the thread when he's pretty definitely getting lynched. It could be a scum ploy, but his comments about Amiko make me really uneasy about lynching him. He appears to be looking at his own lynch from a townie's eyes. He sees that there are two similar wagons and the driving force behind one being stronger than the other is Amiko. He warns us against trusting anything Amiko says about non-MZ lynches D3 because if SlOosh is town then he knows Amiko's actions have brought scum within one mislynch of winning. That last post from SlOosh is possibly one of the towniest things in the thread, imo, because I find that mentality to be something that's pretty difficult to fake. He doesn't just say "don't trust Amiko", as I believe scum would do, but he took it a step farther and said not to trust him if he tries to push anything other than MZ D3. That is what I find so townie about this post. If I have to vote for one or the other, at the moment, I'd ##Vote: Meapak_Ziphh It bugs me that Palmar hasn't returned to the thread before this lynch, since he's on the MZ wagon but said he's be up for a SlOosh lynch. Dunno if I find him scummy for it, but given my current view of this as a scum-controlled lynch, his absence is allowing what I believe is going to be a mislynch to happen over his top scumread. Here, I think fuba is doing something along the lines of what he has accused sqrt of doing - fuba is basically using the idea that the majority vote would lead to a mislynch. There are some differences, to be fair. Fuba says he is townreading slOosh (and Haru and sqrt seem to feel the same way), so it's different from D1 sqrt who still suspected jabber. I think fuba's reasons are still a little different, too - he is saying that the two are scummy for the same reasons. From my point of view, the scummiest things on both players were the same, except applied more to slOosh. If you went with Palmar's argument (M_Z is scum because he called Palmar town after Palmar called M_Z scum), then the scummiest things on the players were different. I still would like you to explain this a little more fuba. My reasoning had very little to do with the actual cases on the players. It was about the nature of the lynch itself. The basic logic behind it was: if everyone says they will vote on one of these two players, and one of those players is scum, then scum's goal is to sway the lynch towards the townie (turns out that they tried to do that but were unable to). This doesn't take into account your force behind the scum lynch, though, which was a pretty big mistake on my part. I basically overestimated the sway that scum had in that situation. | ||
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