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On January 12 2014 13:44 TheChyz wrote:
7 powerroles, 2 confirmed means 5 powerroles left. In the setup, 5 T's = 1 goon, 1 gf, 1 sk
There's been so SK kill, and you're assuming that there's not a single non vanilla townie left? You said assuming no vigi or mason, but now you're assuming no cop, doc, or town RB as well. And assuming all that, therefore TTTTT is the setup and therefore there's no mafia RB which means I'm mafia? And that's why you're pushing with an instant lynch vote on me? Wtf logic is this. Like, you're literally assuming every remaining townie is a vanilla towning (if I'm reading http://wiki.mafiascum.net/?title=C9++ correctly).
You looked scummy on day 1 and this rush to lynch with the dumbest logic ever just puts you back in the lynch seat for me.
##Vote: TheChyz
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Also, my read right now is that TheChyz is the mafia roleblocker. My reason for that read is that because no cops have come forward, and no doc saving has occurred on the two most obvious townies (Balla and JonnyLaw), he's assuming that I'm a town power role, either cop or doc (because I've been roleblocked every night). Assuming that, that makes 3 townie power roles, which makes it relatively unlikely that there is another one. I say that because it explains what he says about
On January 12 2014 13:17 TheChyz wrote:The cool part is that if I am correct nobody should fake claim since asuna will be alone (if either mafia or sk).
So he's expecting that I will be the only town power role to claim. Thus making me alone.
You can combine what I just typed with what I typed above and have spoilered here:
+ Show Spoiler +On January 12 2014 13:49 Asuna wrote:Show nested quote +On January 12 2014 13:44 TheChyz wrote:
7 powerroles, 2 confirmed means 5 powerroles left. In the setup, 5 T's = 1 goon, 1 gf, 1 sk There's been so SK kill, and you're assuming that there's not a single non vanilla townie left? You said assuming no vigi or mason, but now you're assuming no cop, doc, or town RB as well. And assuming all that, therefore TTTTT is the setup and therefore there's no mafia RB which means I'm mafia? And that's why you're pushing with an instant lynch vote on me? Wtf logic is this. Like, you're literally assuming every remaining townie is a vanilla towning (if I'm reading http://wiki.mafiascum.net/?title=C9++ correctly). You looked scummy on day 1 and this rush to lynch with the dumbest logic ever just puts you back in the lynch seat for me. ##Vote: TheChyz
So Chyz is so mafia.
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EBWOP: And if I were mafia, I sure as hell would not be alone because my mafia buddy would at least try to cautiously stick up for me so I don't get lynched and mafia gets reduced to one person. Yet if no one fake claims I will be alone - and Chyz is so freaking sure of it. It sounds to me like he knows I'm town, knows for certain that I've been roleblocked every night, and that's why he's pushing for a lynch with his terrible logic. What an interesting turn of events on day 3. Today is the last free lynch we have right? After today any mislynch leads to town loss I think? That would explain why mafia is pushing so hard, although it is slightly confusing to me why they'd push with such a weird argument.
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And PS before I go do laundry, you're right Chyz, you picked a good roleblock target. I'm not cop or doc, but I am a power role because I'm a 1-shot cop.
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On January 12 2014 13:17 TheChyz wrote:
Ok so at the moment we have a one-shot vigi and innocent child confirmed as well as a goon. Im assuming that there are no vigi's or masons (since they are very unlikely), and if there are please come on out. That means that out of the 7 power roles, 2 are gone. That means there are power roles left. If they all belong to scum that means their powerroles are only 1 goon, 1 GF, and 1 SK. That means there is NO ROLEBLOCKER. In which case Asuna is lying. I think that now is a good time to come out with a role if you have one. Because if there is no other town roles, ASUNA IS LYING and is either GF or SK. The cool part is that if I am correct nobody should fake claim since asuna will be alone (if either mafia or sk).
##Vote: Asuna
Role claim now. I am Vanilla Townie.
In your post before the daypost, you said that IF there were TWO kills this night we should look at Balla and Asuna. Now there were only ONE kill but you are for some reason ready to lynch Asuna.
What changed in your logic that made you go after Asuna afterall ?
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Day 3 vote count:
TheChyz (1): Asuna
Asuna (1): TheChyz
Not voting (6): chinstrap, BigDad, dnyarri, sidesprang, Day_Walker, suki
Currently, Asuna is set to be lynched.
Deadline is Monday, Jan 13 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (in ). Voting is mandatory!
If there are errors, please let us know.
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@sidesprang
I'm still very interested in hearing your opinion on BigDad. You have barely mentioned him in your filter. So what is your read on BigDad and who would be his scum buddy if he was scum?
Please answer or I can't help but assume the worst.
I'm going away for now and return later.
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Huh, did dnyarri just completely ignore the whole chyz accusation and back and forth to go for a weak BigDad request on sidesprang ("or I can't help but assume the worst" - to quote dnyarri)? I think I might be subscribing to the chyz/dnyarri scum pairing that Balla said is a possibility.
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RIP Balla.
Sorry about my inactivity this weekend guys. I have an hour now at the airport to read through on my phone and catch up. I'll be back to normal action tomorrow.
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On January 12 2014 20:44 Asuna wrote:
Huh, did dnyarri just completely ignore the whole chyz accusation and back and forth to go for a weak BigDad request on sidesprang ("or I can't help but assume the worst" - to quote dnyarri)? I think I might be subscribing to the chyz/dnyarri scum pairing that Balla said is a possibility.
Are you saying that you are not interested in hearing sidesprang's opinion on BigDad?
And I'm not going to ignore it. I just asked my question because I wanted anwser. Now I'm back with more time in my hands.
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EBWOP: By "it" I mean TheChyz's accusation
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Alright here are my thoughts. First I'll address the night kill, then who I think are townie and why, and then I'll write my post on who I think are the scum team.
The NightKill
I think this is a simply motivated attack on a strong townie who is also pretty much confirmed due to his roleclaim. As the game is nearing its end scum has to target confirmed towns such as chinstrap and Balla or they'll be in a very bad position in the final days. I agree with theChyz's reasoning before the NK that if Balla somehow avoided being NK'd for the next night he would start to look very suspicious, however that didn't happen.
TheChyz
I had a townie read on him since Day 1, but have not been giving him any attention since then as he hasn't stuck out to me up to now.
I like his responses to Balla's insane pressure. I liked his attack on the people who switched their vote just after Day 1 and still think it's very townie.
And then there's this post followed by his accusations on Asuna:
If they all belong to scum that means their powerroles are only 1 goon, 1 GF, and 1 SK. That means there is NO ROLEBLOCKER.
This is really bad reasoning. Why would you think there is still a SK when he hasn’t shot in either N1 or N2 (In N1, Balla claimed one KP out of two, in N2 there is only 1 KP). Also, why would you assume that town has no other blue roles?
Scenario 1: TheChyz is mafia and they have a roleblocker. That means his attack on Asuna is completely untrue from his perspective, and he knows that his proposed 1 goon 1GF 1SK setup is not the only setup. Therefore, his attack is weak but very easily taken apart. I really don't think mafia would screw up like this so late in the game and put themselves under heavy scrutiny. IE. This reasoning is so bad that it makes him look townie for it.
Scenario 2: TheChyz is mafia and they have 1 goon and 1 GF (and therefore he is the GF). That means he's already confirmed that the set up has to be TTTTT V M. Plausible, but this also means Asuna is the serial killer and has claimed roleblock two nights in a row undisputed... Also, by this argument he would basically be divulging that he knows the setup, which again I think is a mistake that mafia is unlikely to make. Also...
+ Show Spoiler +If anyone is thinking "yeahhh well the SK could have been faking being role blocked twice in a row" or "she could be SK and a town roleblocker could have blocked her twice in a row" ... Just no.
In short, Scenario 2 just makes no sense.
Scenario 3: TheChyz is town and just made a wrong assumption, but stated it strongly because he really believed he solved the game and was pushing for a win.
In short I think TheChyz is town because it would be a really really bad scum play.
Asuna
I had a town read on her before. Figured she was town when she claimed she was roleblocked on N1. Now she's claimed 1-shot cop which means the setup is: M V C TTTT . Two goons, one mafia roleblocker, which fits with her story of being roleblocked. Unless someone claims a different role, I am going to assume she is confirmed town.
dnyarri
Since D2 mislynch of OWB, dnyarri has stepped up his game and has been providing analysis. I think this alone makes him more townie because I think a scum dnyarri would just keep on trying to get by on lurking since it worked for him on Day 1 and 2.
I like this post a lot. I think he brings up some good points, shows critical thinking, and get an overall town feel from it (although I don't agree Day_Walker is scum).
dnyarri reads town to me.
Day_Walker
I've defended Day_Walker a lot and been the only one defending him I think. Balla's dying words listed him as super scummy... I still don't think he is scum, but if I'm wrong about who I think is the scum team then I will have to rethink my read. He hasn't been active in N2, but I hope he will be more active during Day 3.
My read on the scum team is BigDad and sidesprang, which I will go through in my next post.
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BigDad
Basically read my cases on him up to this point.
Other players have brought up cases against him. I don't feel like reiterating everything. One thing to note is he hasn't been around since basically the beginning of Day 2.
sidesprang
Before Night 2 I wasn't suspicious of sidesprang as I had my attention on other people. I also assumed he was more likely to be town because Derrida labeled sidesprang as 'Red' in his opening post.
If we actually lynched dnyarri and he came up town, they kinda stuck their neck out for nothing. The way they changed vote without any explanation and kinda out of the blue would have been hard to explain. Especially with a green lynch on their vote swap. I don't think scum would have taken that risk.
Looking at this again, this line on why he thinks theDragoon and OWB are green if dnyarri is green is suspicious. If he's scum, this line of thought also applies to him and he's basically explaining why he didn't vote switch. It would also be a perfect explanation because he would know that dnyarri is town (this is also another reason to think dnyarri is town).
On the other hand, seeing how it went down. I can't fault others for not following, especially since I can only now read theDragoons post while knowing he is town. Its a bit hard for me to judge how much towny he looked before the vote.
I don't like the bolded part. Why would it be hard to judge how townie he looked before the vote? His previous post posted his line of thought before the lynch and he felt that theDragoon was most likely to flip scum. So he obviously had a read. Saying he can't judge how townie he looked before the vote is inconsistent with his statement that theDragoon was scum.
sidesprang also piggy-backed on my analysis of OWB. He made a big post and provided links but basically added nothing new.
I'm not convinced the chance of OWB being scum is higher than dnyerri atm. I'll try to look into BigDad.
sidesprang said this but hasn't posted anything on BigDad. BigDad also hasn't said anything about sidesprang. Makes sense if they're a scum team.
I think BigDad/sidesprang scum team makes sense more than any other pairing. I think a BigDad lynch today and a sidesprang lynch tomorrow would win it for us.
##vote BigDad
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@TheChyz
As for bigdad he is the towniest of all 3. There are a few things that might seem scummy but overall I feel he has been contributing ok and that he is creating some useful conversation. Most importantly is that he sticks with dnyarri as his scum choice and doesn't join the owb bandwagon and adds more useful thought into his reasoning to lynch dnyarri.
I think BigDad's reasoning to lynch dnyarri that he posted on Day 2 was weak and tunnel-y. Sticking with dnyarri as his scum choice and not following the flow of the thread is more townie than scum, but he was also away during the end of Day 2 so we don't really know if he would have stuck with dnyarri or changed to OWB.
I feel that his Day 1 play had several scum tells in it (that other people have brushed off). Compared to the other players still in the game he looks the most scummy to me.
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So the current three suspects are based on who vote switched from Dragoon to dnyarri
It's incredible how you are simplifying the real situation. There was lot more thinking going on.
Starting off with dnyarri, he only has a filter of 1 page, which means that it better be damn good quality and if not then he is not helping town. His vote on me and then sudden switch when questioned about it is scummy thing #1 I could find. Next is that when I ask him 2 people he would lynch and 1 he would save, he gives me just 1 lynch (DW) and saves chinstrap. Saving chinstrap is an answer that involves no real thought being put into it. His only reason to lynch owb is that he is lurking and voted for dnyarri. That reason alone makes him mores scummy that DW? That's just wrong. Then he just suddenly goes that he thinks bigdad is also his top suspect. There's so much more things that are so scummy to me that I don't want to write an essay on it (and his filters short enough so just read it all yourself). All the inconsistency and no actual self thought going into things and just going for the bandwagon votes (dragoon, then owb) really makes think he is very likely to be scum.
There were many people who changed from you to some other player and there's nothing scummy about it. Maybe I was "challenged" but why would I switch to theDragoon only because player who was already somewhat suspicious (Day_Walker) posted two lines to criticize my first post?
Saving chinstrap may not involve real thought, but are you saying that it would have been bad idea? Note: I gave my opinion to save chinstrap before chinstrap said they would be back on sunday.
I gave only 1 lynch, because at a time I didn't find good pair of lynch. And I still don't trust DW completely.
Considering that my filter is pretty short, you should have been able to see that I had more reasons to lynch DW than to save myself and because DW was lurking. I didn't add original content to my opinion on OWB, but I did check OWB's earlier games after I got the links.
Only reason I had ever trusted BigDad was because I thought theDragoon was suspicious, which I learned from BigDad. Since theDragoon was townie, I had much less reason to think that BigDad might not be scum. And when Balla asked my opinion about him, I started to investigate more on him. Perhaps I 'had just forgotten about him'? You said that you started to analyze players more and started to suspect me more. I did the same on BigDad.
Oh please write an essay on me. I'm sure there are many people who would be interested in it, including me. I'd very much like to hear more reasons and at the same time I'd learn more about you.
And you are not in my brains. You can't say that I didn't have any self thought. And even if I didn't, would it mean that I was scum?
As for bigdad he is the towniest of all 3. There are a few things that might seem scummy but overall I feel he has been contributing ok and that he is creating some useful conversation. Most importantly is that he sticks with dnyarri as his scum choice and doesn't join the owb bandwagon and adds more useful thought into his reasoning to lynch dnyarri.
Are you being serious here? There was no owb bandwagon when BigDad did his last D2-post! BigDad was not discussing there about OWB when OWB-bandwagon started. He wasn't defending himself either.
Thanks for your attack against me, I actually looked your filter again. It seems that you've never been very critical of BigDad.
D1 you said you've liked almost everything that BigDad had said:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=434723¤tpage=21#401
D2 you included OWB, BigDad and DW on your list of people who might have voted against me for credibility. But your post was really attacking OWB, who turned out to be townie!
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=434723¤tpage=50#997
D2 You mentioned that OWB and BigDad had useless D2, but you were "maybe a little more on bigdad's side"
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=434723¤tpage=52#1034
D3 You post your attack against me and only very shortly mention BigDad, not in very critical tone as I said
And remember folks that Derrida rated TheChyz GREEN! BigDad never was very critical of you either!
So my theory is that BigDad, TheChyz and Derrida is the scum team. It all seems so very clear now. I'd like some other opinions. All other combinations seem much more vague to me.
##Vote: TheChyz
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You are reading that post wrong suki.
Firstly I did not try to give myself an excuse for not doing the voteswap. I had in my previous post said that I would not be there for the vote. So why would I need another excuse ?
And I'm not trying to make the point that theDragoon and OWB is green if dnyarri is green. I'm trying to point out that Johnny and OWB is more green because of the voteswap. Because if the voteswap succeeded they would have nothing to gain from dnyarris death. If dnyarri was green -> they look scummy. If dnyarri is red -> they bussed a scummate when they absolutly did not have to.
The reason I said it's hard to me to judge how much towny theDragoon looked after the vote was because when I came back I read the flip. So when reading those posts I KNEW he was town. Therefor I wont sit on my high horse and say he was obvious town and blame others for not realizing it in the heat of the moment. I see nothing that is inconsistent,
Also I did not piggy-back your analysis of OWB. I made a post that was simmilar to yours yes. I looked into OWB because I got paranoid since the lynch went so easy. I found a few points, but in the end to me it felt more like confirmation bias on my side than anything else. So I decided to stick with my vote on dnyarri.
Reasoning for me not mentioning BigDad is just because he has been under my radar. But I'm sure if you look you will find more ppl I did not mention? In general I dont talk about people I dont have reads on
ATM I'm thinking the scumteam is between BigDad, dnyarri and TheChiz. I've not had time to write big cases like you. But I will hopefully do it early tomorrow so we will have time to discuss before the vote.
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@dnyarri why are you so much more active now compared to earlier ?
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Ugh.. You're right sidesprang. After reading your defense I think the only parts of my case on you that 'hold up' are that you could have piggy-backed/bandwagoned my case on OWB (can be argued either way), and that you and BigDad both haven't mentioned each other (which could just be coincidence).
I'll have another look at TheChyz after I come back home tonight. Giving him the pass for 'obviously bad play' is sounding less and less like a valid idea.
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Sorry I've been such a lousy contributor the last couple days. I'm getting ready to fly across the Pacific ^_^
I have a 12 hour layover in Tokyo, so hopefully I will be able to get some internet there, catch back up on things, and make some good posts.
Until then,
##Vote: BigDad
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EPT
