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Vivax
21678 Posts
banning these reasons from your cases will dramatically improve your scumhunting, it will actually put you in need to explain how people's actions make them scum in detail. You don't do that just by putting their play into a category labeled "scummy" | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
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Vivax
21678 Posts
On July 01 2013 06:41 Stutters695 wrote: The part about no role name being claimed is null imo. I could easily argue the merits of town withholding that info until a second Miller claims. The damming part is how sure he was Marv was town, but that can easily be explained away by his thinking 5 minutes in is too early for scum to claim. I'm having a hard time justifying it when the rest of his play has been pretty town. Like your case had me pretty convinced earlier but the more I see from him the less I feel comfortable with it. Yeah, 12 minutes of difference between the two games is a pretty big reason. Rayn having completely different opinions on miller claims in two different games with similar setups is totally not scummy. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43188 Posts
- I did think about the setup before the game started and decided what would be best for the town and best for the scum regarding miller claims (as that's pretty much all you can do beforehand). - I reached into a conclusion that millers should claim in their first post - to have a situation where noone is allowed to claim miller after D1. - I also decided that two millers is highly unlike and counted out that possibility. If there were two miller claims i would then decide which one of them is mafia and which is not. - I also decided that as mafia i - or anyone in my team - should not claim miller in any case. That would be a disaster if town actually had a miller, no worth risking that. When the game started: - I asked millers to claim asap. - marv claimed miller, and for what i said above i instantly thought he is town - In case of some bullshit i went on screaming "there can't be 2 millers", because of 1) I think there can't, 2) if i was wrong about marv and there was a town miller they would claim and then we would work on from there - what to do - I don't believe marv would have claimed miller as mafia, because there is a possibility that he could have been instantly outed (if town had one miller) and it is not worth risking, it just isn't. And don't give that "you are not taking account the possibility of no millers" bullshit because i did take that as a possibility, i only excluded the possibility of "scum fakeclaiming miller, unless dumb", and excluded that in marv's claim because not dumb. Am i being clear enough? | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43188 Posts
On July 01 2013 06:47 Vivax wrote: Yeah, 12 minutes of difference between the two games is a pretty big reason. Rayn having completely different opinions on miller claims in two different games with similar setups is totally not scummy. Why can't any of you understand that as the millers have role-names, it's too fucking risky to claim miller as mafia??!?!?!?!? If there was another miller claim, who is to say marv gets to say his role name last? Me? Certainly not. If someone had cc'd him i would totally have him claim his role name first, because marv has balls to do something like this. Not counting the fact that it's incredibly stupid, and no other miller claims proves even more that i am right in what i have said. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43188 Posts
On July 01 2013 06:38 Vivax wrote: JarJar, question for you. Rayn gave Lazer a townread as reaction to me doing the same. Why did you call Rayn out but not me? What do you mean by this Vivax? | ||
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Vivax
21678 Posts
On July 01 2013 06:52 raynpelikoneet wrote: Why can't any of you understand that as the millers have role-names, it's too fucking risky to claim miller as mafia??!?!?!?!? If there was another miller claim, who is to say marv gets to say his role name last? Me? Certainly not. If someone had cc'd him i would totally have him claim his role name first, because marv has balls to do something like this. Not counting the fact that it's incredibly stupid, and no other miller claims proves even more that i am right in what i have said. On June 30 2013 19:41 raynpelikoneet wrote: No it's not. Fakeclaiming miller 5min into the game is dumb and unnecessary as scum and if someone was dumb enough to fakeclaim after marv we had a 50% chance to right out catch them by having them post the role PM first. Other than that, I'm very interested in how your stutters read developed. You went from calling him scum early to stop talking about him (it was ME who asked him about the question YOU found scummy) and then casually saying you think his posting looked genuine, later. Could you portray your thought process for your change of read on stutters, in detail? | ||
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mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
Vayne entering the thread with thread analysis on D1 was as surprising for me as it appears it was for WoS XD I don't see the scumminess from Lazer's 6th post (Is it this one? "Marv, which game were you fake claiming miller?"), so could you explain it Vayne? Oats's vote on rayn was interesting, because I didn't think of rayn's actions from that persepective. The thing is, though, rayn had thought the situation through. The way oats presents it is as though rayn simply saw marv claim miller, and accepted it as true. Then went on to buddy him. This is clearly not what happened. s0Lstice's first post was interesting (I'm gonna end up saying "interesting" a lot. Too tired at the moment to not be repetitive). First of all, I don't see how that progression indicates Stutters as scum. I found him most suspicious for the aggression so early, not that his reasoning was flawed regarding scum and millers. It's also pretty weird that s0L says Lazer is suspicious for spending so much time thinking about the miller claim when he just gave a town read to rayn, who has apparently spent just as much time doing so. s0L did mention Vivax, who I failed to comment on earlier. The passive shit flinging is something I'd missed, but it seems legit. Why even mention marv being less active so far when he mentioned little more than an hour before that he was going to be pretty inactive for a while? The self-conscious bit I pretty much ignored, since I'm that way every time I post, but I'm keeping the first point in mind. Vivax's first post after returning actually had a really good point in it. Not that what marv did was scummy, but that the miller claim definitely can't be taken as a town tell now. Rayn followed that post with this: "No it's not. Fakeclaiming miller 5min into the game is dumb and unnecessary as scum and if someone was dumb enough to fakeclaim after marv we had a 50% chance to right out catch them by having them post the role PM first." I'm starting to see what oats was getting at, now. Rayn seems incapable of believing marv is scum, even though it's been shown that the claim is unreliable. Like, in that quote, while admitting the possibility of a fakeclaim, he refuses to believe it could be marv lying. Lazermonkey: My experience with Vayne is that I can't read him for shit. Well, I mean, I guess I kind of could early on in Roulette, when I found he had "scum potential, but was not necessarily scummy". I'd definitely trust WoS's analysis of Vayne's scum play, especially if Vayne doesn't contest it himself (unless they're both scum... so take that with a grain of salt). Vivax: "I'm really curious to see which name marv will claim." Why will that actually matter at this point? Caught up~~ Man, you guys post a lot. So, current thoughts. Oats is acting almost exactly like he was as town in Roulette. The difference is his approach to pushing his lynch, which seems more persuasive, as opposed to commanding. I think he mentioned at the end of Roulette that he was going to work on that, and his play this game is consistent with that. He's probably my strongest townread at the moment. Vayne hasn't actually said all that much. I appreciated his first post, then he kind of disappeared. Not much to say. Would still like to know what's so scummy about that Lazer post. Stutters: Not entirely sure what to think. His explanation for the aggression is pretty much a null tell. He does seem to be posting more than I remember, but the content is mostly defending himself. He also says we should discuss other players, but doesn't suggest any himself. Still very "vayne from roulette"-y for me. Vivax: I like what he's said about rayn, wasn't impressed by marv's supposed scumminess for not posting his full role PM. That assumes that town marv would have naturally posted his role PM when claiming miller, something that I don't think is a natural inclination. The fact that he went into Carnival Cruise and found evidence of rayn's previous reactions to miller claims gives him some townie points. Overall, slight town, though he's apparently thinking about marv a lot, which I find strange given that marv hasn't really been here at all. marv: Come back to us, dear. ^^ rayn: After Vivax's marv post, I expected rayn to be less insistent on him being confirmed town. It would have been *much* easier for scum to fakeclaim miller in this situation than I thought, and I don't see how this isn't obvious from a town perspective. Add to that Vivax's case, where he points out that rayn accepts the existence of a miller at face value, and I'm pretty convinced. He's far too eager to accept the claim as truth, when it should now have little effect on the mind of a townie. My only reluctance to vote for him is his activity level, which I tend to associate with town. ##Vote: raynpelikoneet Everyone else is gonna need a filter dive, and I'm going to have to reread the posts I read while writing this, but I feel comfortable with my vote where it is. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43188 Posts
On July 01 2013 06:57 Vivax wrote: Other than that, I'm very interested in how your stutters read developed. You went from calling him scum early to stop talking about him (it was ME who asked him about the question YOU found scummy) and then casually saying you think his posting looked genuine, later. Could you portray your thought process for your change of read on stutters, in detail? No Vivax, i asked about the question from Stutters. Why are you pushing fake evidence? I fucking asked about it right after he posted. I changed my view after Oats posted about that situation. I havn't thought about it that way. His accusation towards me does not make sense from a town point of view, but on the other hand it does not make sense from scum point of view too. So it's more likely to come from a townie, as scum are usually more careful with their posting. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43188 Posts
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On July 01 2013 06:22 Vivax wrote: I don't get this. So your issue is that I assumed that there had to be a miller? I didn't. If I had, why would I even have written that shit? If I knew there was 1 miller and 1 miller only then scum cannot fake claim. Or, they can but its at best a 1-1 trade. The reason I wrote that was because I wanted to showcase why the hypothetical, less risky marv, would not claim miller when he was scum because if there was a real miller in the game, he would look really really bad. Counter claim chance in the other game was 60 or 40 %, don't remember which one, I think that's fairly high and also applies to this game. What matters though is that you said marv would be likely town cause two millers are unlikely, dismissing the option that there could be no miller, like Rayn did. It's not bullshit to assume someone is scum cause they are convinced someone is town. If someone gives a town read without proper reasons then it's indicative that they knew their alignment beforehand. You and Rayn clearly didn't look at this matter from the perspective of someone who sees a miller claim and thinks "Oh ok he did it in some other game, I'll judge him by his play then". You say "Oh he claimed he must be town then" (You not as much as Rayn, but you said to Rayn that you agree on marv being probably town and then decided for it once you concluded that two millers are impossible). And when you got gunned for reasons you constructed pretty strange explanations for your reads. In case that anyone didn't read my case yet, I urge you to go through it and at least comment on it: + Show Spoiler + On June 30 2013 21:48 Oatsmaster wrote: well yeah Im just saying that Rayn isnt scum for not knowing about previous game where marv fakeclaimed miller and replaced out. Rayn is scummy for his unnatural confidence into marv being town. Followed by him not adapting his opinion to the new information posted about marv and using whatever he can to justify his unjustified townread. What we have in Rayn is probably a scum seeing a townie claim and immediately taking sides for the townie. From a scum point of view, claiming townies seem to be in a strong position, especially when they know that their team will not counterclaim the townie. They will usually try to pick the right side rather than fighting the claim, scum loves to be on the right side. They feel it's going to earn them trust if they simply take the claim at face value and move on to other stuff, defending the townie against other people's doubts, expecting to look like they were right. A lot of Rayn's reasoning for marv being town stems from the fact that he assumes that there can't be two millers. That is fallacious, and a scumslip, Lazermonkey fell for the same mistake, as I will show you (also notice that Lazermonkey pointed out some of Rayn's mistakes but doesn't pursue him as scumread). 1. Rayn quickly thought post-claim that two millers weren't possible. On June 30 2013 06:08 raynpelikoneet wrote: Cool. If nobody counterclaims the next step is that the third party (if here) is going to protect you. On June 30 2013 06:13 raynpelikoneet wrote: marv, now that i can be sure that you are town and i do actually have to find scum instead of bullshitting around, let's work together and find all the mafia on D1. Deal? On June 30 2013 06:19 raynpelikoneet wrote: I bet that was not 5 minutes into the game when one person has posted before you. That is really an unnecessary risk that i do not think you would take as scum in case the real miller is present. (stutters says there can be two millers) On June 30 2013 06:39 raynpelikoneet wrote: There is no way there are 2 millers in the game so cut talking about that as a possibility already. What's scummy about this:
Implication: → Rayn did not really expect a counterclaim, as seen in point 2, 3 and 4. Only a fraction of players posted at the time so it was not rational to dismiss a counterclaim that quickly. He explains his reasoning here: On June 30 2013 07:20 raynpelikoneet wrote: This is how i see it: marv claimed before iGrok announced the cop is in fact a parity cop. In case the cop was normal and as there is no GF, it's fair that there is one miller. Two millers make the game insanely hard for a cop, and with two miller claims town might run in circles finding which of the millers is "mafia". As for parity cop, having two millers ease up the game much. If the parity cop is stupid enough to not check marv on N1, they still can check the other miller claim on N2 (as if marv is town he will die on N1) and use that to confirm his earlier and future checks. If there is no cop there is no point in having millers. One might be okay in the sense that it fucks with the town, but not too much. Two millers and no cop is basically impossible. marv would not claim miller in either scenario because there is no need to. So that's why i think marv is town and there is exactly 1 miller. I agree that Lazer is probably town. His opening post was careless and i don't think he would have done that as scum. His vote on WoS is good as WoS is probably scum. :D What do you think about Stutters? Mainly his posts about the miller thing. They are really really bad. Let's dissect this: 1. Rayn says only one miller is possible with standard cop (don't even know why he mentioned this as it's unrelated) 2. Rayn says two millers make the game too easy for parity cop coz he can prime his check on one N2 if the other dies N1 (lolz) 3. Rayn says only one miller is possible with no cop. Also no miller is possible. And he says: THAT'S WHY MARV IS TOWN (cause two millers are unlikely) This question arises: It sticks out that in all of this, Rayn never considers that town could have no miller. Why does Rayn not consider that town has no miller? Cause he first gave marv full credit (too quickly, knowing that the claim must be true) and now has to justify it. Cause he knew that marv's claim was true, and hence had trouble imagining things from a perspective where town could have no miller. Futhermore: On June 30 2013 09:41 Lazermonkey wrote: EBWOP: To expand on that, what is it that makes you think that marv is to bright to fake claim miller in this game despite having done so in another game. The claim was risky in that game, just as the hypothetical fake claim would be in this game. Still you say there cannot be a possibilty that Marv is scum in this game. On June 30 2013 09:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: The fact that there is a rolename for each possible miller. If you fakeclaim, you take a 50% chance of 1-1 trade as mafia, which is not good 5min into D1. There is lot to talk about. Stutters and WoS are scummy. Do you agree? We talk about marv more when he posts more. Rayn was well aware of the fact that millers have names. And yet he said that marv would not have claimed miller cause a guy with the same name would have gotten one of them lynched. BUT MARV NEVER CLAIMED HIS NAME, and Rayn never asked him for it. This shows that Rayn had the intention to defend marv, not that he was figuring out his alignment genuinely. For us, it means that today we should lynch Rayn imo. I also mentioned that Lazer made the same mistake in not assuming the genuine perspective, here: On June 30 2013 07:25 Lazermonkey wrote: Regarding the the possibilties of there being two millers in the setup. First off, I'm going to make the assumption that there are only three scum in this game. Secondly, looking at the roles in possible for scum you can see that the only one power role in our beloved friend Adolf "the roleblocker." Hitler. Now, assuming there is only 1 Hitler (which I don't think is a very bold assumption) the most powerfull scum team is in theory goon x2 + GF, a relativly weak team. Having two millers vs this team, even without additional blue roles, honestly seems kinda OP as you would either get into a postion with 2 modconfirmed townies D1 or a group of 3 people where you know for sure that one is scum. So, once again assuming (-.-)that the game is fairly balanced I don't think there are two millers. And the conclusion you should draw from this is that Marvs claim probably means he is town. Knowing that marv is town, he didn't assume that there could be no miller. Actually, reading through your case now, I can see where you are comming from. But really, I had very similar thoughts to what Rayn had, at least in the beginning of the game, and I could very well see town writing those posts as well. What is your thoughts on Jarjar? I really don't see how you want to kill Rayn over him at this point... | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43188 Posts
Also tell me how in normal setup it's harder to get away with a miller claim (if there are 0-2 millers) than in this one. | ||
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Vivax
21678 Posts
No Vivax, i asked about the question from Stutters. Why are you pushing fake evidence? I fucking asked about it right after he posted. Yeah you asked it in the start, after calling him out. You didn't give a shit about stutters after you posted your case and he came back to the thread. What my point here is, is that you didn't pursue him when you had the chance to. When your question went unanswered after stutters came back, it was me pointing it out, although I don't recall the timing of your comeback, nor can I know it. I don't see interactions from you with stutters. But when Oats asks you for your read on him while both of us gunned you, you said this: I don't know, he has been asked a lot of questions which he "will answer when he has more time" but instead every time he posts he posts something else. 1:45 later you say this: Stutters' posting style and explanations feel genuine and i'm slightly leaning town on him. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43188 Posts
There are three people who should know how i work and how i develop my reads. WoS, Oats and Vivax. Oats becomes and idiot who tunnels someone for the whole phase, and by his other posts he looks very town. WoS, i don't really know what he thinks of me and why. Vivax is just... well saying nothing but asking me about stuff i have explained or debunked already. | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On July 01 2013 07:18 raynpelikoneet wrote: WoS, I'm kinda neutral on atm. I don't feel like killing him. Lazer, Vivax is probably scum and JarJar or WoS is his scumbuddy, JarJar more likely. There are three people who should know how i work and how i develop my reads. WoS, Oats and Vivax. Oats becomes and idiot who tunnels someone for the whole phase, and by his other posts he looks very town. WoS, i don't really know what he thinks of me and why. Vivax is just... well saying nothing but asking me about stuff i have explained or debunked already. Vivax has been giving me really bad vibes the last few pages. He really went overboard with the tunneling, though I don't think tunneling in it self is a scum tell. Also, Vivax is actually talking alot, compared to others in this game and I'm not too keen on killing one of the most active posters in the game D1. We really should kill Jarjar... | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43188 Posts
On July 01 2013 07:18 Vivax wrote: Yeah you asked it in the start, after calling him out. You didn't give a shit about stutters after you posted your case and he came back to the thread. What my point here is, is that you didn't pursue him when you had the chance to. When your question went unanswered after stutters came back, it was me pointing it out, although I don't recall the timing of your comeback, nor can I know it. I don't see interactions from you with stutters. But when Oats asks you for your read on him while both of us gunned you, you said this: 1:45 later you say this: Yeah, i had not reread what Stutters had said after that, and when i started catching up i was posting when i read people's filters. That's also when i realized what Oats posted about him, this post: On June 30 2013 14:44 Oatsmaster wrote: So you are saying as scum stutters wants to throw suspicion on Rayn for something that scum dont know. I dont think this is really all the believable The rest i said about Stutters is why he is only slightly leaning on town and not more. | ||
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Vivax
21678 Posts
On July 01 2013 07:14 Lazermonkey wrote: I don't get this. So your issue is that I assumed that there had to be a miller?I didn't. If I had, why would I even have written that shit? If I knew there was 1 miller and 1 miller only then scum cannot fake claim. Or, they can but its at best a 1-1 trade. The reason I wrote that was because I wanted to showcase why the hypothetical, less risky marv, would not claim miller when he was scum because if there was a real miller in the game, he would look really really bad. Again... On June 30 2013 07:25 Lazermonkey wrote: Regarding the the possibilties of there being two millers in the setup. First off, I'm going to make the assumption that there are only three scum in this game. Secondly, looking at the roles in possible for scum you can see that the only one power role in our beloved friend Adolf "the roleblocker." Hitler. Now, assuming there is only 1 Hitler (which I don't think is a very bold assumption) the most powerfull scum team is in theory goon x2 + GF, a relativly weak team. Having two millers vs this team, even without additional blue roles, honestly seems kinda OP as you would either get into a postion with 2 modconfirmed townies D1 or a group of 3 people where you know for sure that one is scum. So, once again assuming (-.-)that the game is fairly balanced I don't think there are two millers. And the conclusion you should draw from this is that Marvs claim probably means he is town. I don't know, am I reading something wrong here? I see you claiming that marv is probably town cause there can't be two millers. But you just stated that you didn't assume that there had to be a miller. On the contrary, your post in question is footed on the idea that there is a miller and that it's marv, and that he's town cause there can't be two millers. | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16627 Posts
On July 01 2013 06:49 raynpelikoneet wrote: Vivax, i'll comment on your case: - I did think about the setup before the game started and decided what would be best for the town and best for the scum regarding miller claims (as that's pretty much all you can do beforehand). Everything in this post is true right rayn? Like the tone is serious? | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43188 Posts
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
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