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On February 01 2013 07:42 cDgCorazon wrote:
Well Day 2 comprises most of the game because D1 was a bigger penis competition between Acid and WB and we voted a lurker.
K say I'm scum. Why do I cop claim to save you?
Rofl. Clearly that isn't the case, since YOU know you are town.
Now, a cop claim WOULD be safe if the scum role-cop found a JK, but we have already established that the utter lack of JK in this game makes that impossible (plus I'm cop, so we can't have a JK).
I wish people would think these things through. Warbaby died to give clarity to this game guys... don't toss that away.
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Deadline is in less than an hour, yes?
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On February 01 2013 09:05 zarepath wrote:
Deadline is in less than an hour, yes?
Yeah.
In case it isn't clear, my "last will" is that
a) cora and zare are both confirmed town, and cakepie is not far behind
b) as a result of A, glurio is scum
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On February 01 2013 07:27 cDgCorazon wrote:
Sn0- [...] Why would the mafia not take a chance and get a free blue kill after the town killed off the other blue? It’s too tempting of a proposition to pass up.
Because D3 is a 4-2 MYLO. Right now, Zare almost confirmed town, and you, Cora, are NOT confirmed. Killing Sn0 and flipping the cop gives us two 100% confirmed townies in 4-2 MYLO. It's completely plausible for scum to want to avoid that in favor of something more likely to give them the mislynch thay they need.
Whereas, by killing Zare, there are actually ZERO confirmed townies, and scum can simply aim for a chaos play capitalizing on remaining doubts about Sn0 (and yourself), throwing suspicion around two or three targets looking for a mislynch. Confirming townies will not help scum, whereas keeping someone who is controversial alive may be a worthwhile gamble -- Sn0's cop claim is clearly not universally believed, and so even if he gets a useful check tonight, not everyone is going to believe it at face value. (a JK claim might even be used in a gambit to cause confusion.)
Remember: all it takes is one stubborn misguided townie and two scum votes to lock in a mislynch.
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On February 01 2013 09:11 Sn0_Man wrote:
In case it isn't clear, my "last will" is that
a) cora and zare are both confirmed town, and cakepie is not far behind
b) as a result of A, glurio is scum
A bit more closer to the deadline, please?
Also please declare your night action target at XX:59:50 with justification for your choice. This will help if you actually survive.
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Night action:
I'm checking acid because he's the loose cannon. Glurio *is* scum, acid is unknown, along with slay.
I feel like a cleared acid is very powerful, and if hes scum then gg.
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If Sn0_Man is not killed, I really suggest that you look at his filter, and the thread leading up to his cop claim. He only cop claimed after Cora was under a lot of attack and Acid is the one who suggested that he was breadcrumbing and cop claiming before he actually cop claimed -- and his earlier posts make it seem as though he didn't know the setup blue possibilities despite bieng cop. His breadcrumbs aren't entirely justified.
And his late post seems SUPER scummy. The thing is, I can totally see and understand a scum team realizing that if they don't do something, they're pretty much done for, and they ahve to take the 1-in-3 chance (closer to 1-in-2 because there was no evidence of a JK) to cop claim. It wasn't really meditated; Acid kind of just forced him into it (incidentally), and it was worth the risk.
It's possible you should no-lynch tomorrow so you have the time to MAKE Sn0 either make two reads, or be lynched again by scum and still be in a good spot.
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Zare: 100% confirmed town unless there is some really convoluted JK claim. Solid effort, not afraid to make cases and
Sn0_Man: There is no way a scum Sn0 could safely claim cop when he did. I don't think we're looking at some complicated and daring scum gambit. This is more likely to be a true, goodwill attempt to prevent a Corazon mislynch. Also, any argument based on his failed late D2 vote switch is WIFOM and I will not accept it as strong evidence. He was at least considering and agonizing about the various possibilities presented.
Corazon: Plays based on trying to foster discussion, trying to break up the pointless penis contest, and the mutual tunneling by Acid and warbaby. Unfortunately did not succeed in convincing people that he brought anything useful to the table himself, thus looks hypocritical. Buckled under pressure, but that is null in the newbie context. Right now, really needs to take off tinfoil hat for a moment.
Acid: Got entangled in shit flinging with warbaby, then went WIFOM/OMGUS on Corazon. But not afraid to take a stance. Also, quickly saw the logical merits of not voting warbaby regardless of the truth of the doc claim. D1 was an issue, but has stepped things up late D2.
Glurio: Never committed to a clear stance independently, although posts when prompted or questioned. Casts suspicions widely, but solidifies only on "safe", "fashion-of-the-moment" options votes, delivering just-before-hammer voting on both days. Did not entertain other possibilities, without any consideration at all, instead sheeping Sn0 to not move his vote.
Slayalot: (out of time typing -- similar to glurio)
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On February 01 2013 04:00 cakepie wrote:
Look at who among you are willing to come out and make controversial statements and possibly offend people. And look at who is simply content to safely cast weak suspicions all over the place without commitment, sheep opinions that are already expressed by other players, and wagon their vote without justification.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
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Day 3
Zarepath, the Vanilla Townie, has been shot!
It is now Day 3. You have 48 hours before the lynch.
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GEEEEEEEEE GEEEEEEEEEE
Thanks for the craziness, have fun, and good luck!
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GG zare!
Let's have that cop check result.
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On February 01 2013 07:27 cDgCorazon wrote:
After the craziness of D2, I want to get my thoughts in before the night lynch deadline. I’m actually writing this about 5 hours after the lynch, but I have a very busy day lined up tomorrow (today as this is being posted), and I would not have time to get anything in before the deadline unless I wrote it now.
Sn0- Although he has been defending me most of the game, I’m suspicious of him. His scum hunting hasn’t been very good so far. He did more of a mediating role in D2 rather than actually scumhunting. He jumped on the WB wagon while it was in full swing. In addition, his last minute vote switch so “badly timed” from Warbaby has me very suspicious about him. It sounds like a ploy to gain town favor by simply making a mistake that he did not want the doctor to be lynched. If you think about, it’s a good way for scum to get away with the mislynch of one of the most key blue roles the town has. If someone tries to say that he really meant to vote Warbaby off, he could say that he meant to switch, but just did it a tad too late. Of course, no one knows his intentions but himself. The cop claim is also a bit sketchy. Although a lot more well done than Warbaby, it still has yet to be put up against any real pressure. Anyone could have claimed cop and said that I am town. All they needed to do was not have a counter-claim. If Sn0 survives the night, I would be ridiculously suspicious about him. Why would the mafia not take a chance and get a free blue kill after the town killed off the other blue? It’s too tempting of a proposition to pass up.
All together: I am lying about Sn0
Why did I do it? I knew that since there was not been a counter-claim, the chances of Sn0 being a cop were very good. He has the proper read on me. However, if everyone agreed that he was the cop, he would've been killed N2. There's no way that the scum would have killed him if they weren't convinced that he is cop.
If the general consensus is that Sn0 is cop, then the scum would've taken him out immediately. I faked a lack of consensus that Sn0 was cop (and the fact that not everyone was 100% sold on his claim) so that the scum would choose to lynch someone else, and Sn0's all-important check would be allowed to be heard today.
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On February 01 2013 07:27 cDgCorazon wrote:
After the craziness of D2, I want to get my thoughts in before the night lynch deadline. I’m actually writing this about 5 hours after the lynch, but I have a very busy day lined up tomorrow (today as this is being posted), and I would not have time to get anything in before the deadline unless I wrote it now.
Sn0- Although he has been defending me most of the game, I’m suspicious of him.
[...]
That is such a terrible crumb. There's no system whatsoever to the way you claim to hide the message.
Do you realize that it is technically possible to take any arbitrary, sufficiently long text, and pull out letters selectively to form almost any message one desires?
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Yeah I know, I had like 20 minutes to do it.
My intent was there though. If you believe I am Vanilla Town, then I have nothing to gain by 180-ing on Sn0. I don't bite the hand that feeds until it's pretty obvious it's a scummy hand.
I'll just stick to making cases.
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On February 01 2013 10:00 zarepath wrote:
It's possible you should no-lynch tomorrow so you have the time to MAKE Sn0 either make two reads, or be lynched again by scum and still be in a good spot.
What do people think about this? Do you think that if we no-lynch today, scum will have to kill Sn0 with the N3 nightkill?
I feel that:
If Sn0 is really cop, scum would be happy to let him get a check in and kill someone else instead. They can still discredit the hell out of him again on D4, it would be no different from today.
If Sn0 is scum with cop fakeclaim, he'll live through to D4 anyways <-- this possibility enables the WIFOM value above.
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For now, we've already heard from glurio during N2, but Slayalot has not posted in 28 hours. So I'm going to start with this and see where it takes us with regard to my two strongest scumreads.
##Vote: Slayalot
##FoS: glurio
Reason:
On February 01 2013 04:00 cakepie wrote:
who is simply content to safely cast weak suspicions all over the place without commitment, sheep opinions that are already expressed by other players, and wagon their vote without justification.
as well as voting patterns
D1 voting
+ Show Spoiler +
27 21:17 zarepath -> AFKing
28 00:39 warbaby -> SkaPunk
28 03:41 Sn0_Man -> SkaPunk
28 03:59 cDgCorazon -> Abenson
28 05:08 Slayalot -> SkaPunk
28 05:22 glurio -> SkaPunk
28 08:35 warbaby -> Abenson
28 09:37 warbaby -> AFKing
28 09:55 cDgCorazon -> SkaPunk
On a day where the town thing to do is to use your vote as a tool to drive activity ("post stuff or be lynched"), both Slayalot and glurio happily contribute the third and fourth votes on SkaPunk, significantly ahead of the voting deadline, with poor justification. With three inactives in AFK, Ska, and Acid (and the spurious Abenson), there are plenty of targets to spread the votes around on, and pressure for activity. Some people attempted to do this, after a fashion. Slayalot and glurio are among those who did not pressure well, and fired upon safe targets only.
D2 voting
+ Show Spoiler +
As at Slayalot's 31 Jan 07:02 KST vote:
29 10:46 Acid -> warbaby
29 11:02 warbaby -> Acid
29 15:30 warbaby -> -none-
30 02:38 Sn0_Man -> warbaby
30 07:57 cDgCorazon -> Acid
31 00:34 zarepath -> warbaby
31 03:06 warbaby -> Slayalot
31 05:38 glurio -> warbaby
31 06:31 zarepath -> -none-
31 06:37 warbaby -> glurio
31 07:02 Slayalot -> warbaby
[...]
warbaby (4): Acid, Sn0, zarepath, glurio, Slayalot
The critical four votes. And then both conveniently disappear, with glurio making only a brief appearance during which he refuses to entertain alternative scenarios, in light of there being both a doc and cop claim.
Slayalot hasn't even been seen since. I want to hear what he has to say, hence the vote on him rather than on glurio. In any case I'll happily lynch either of them.
(Also, more WIFOM for glurio's WIFOM bonfire: you want to cast me as scumbuddies with slayalot, and make a case against me for bussing? HAVE AT IT. You think scum is willing to start a 4-2 MYLO day by initiating the wagon that will bus his scumbuddy? I don't think that idea is very sellable. [ see: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17684181 ])
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Let's see what Sn0's check was before going any further (unless he said who he was checking before).
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EPT
