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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
Glurio and Slay seem like the most obvious places to start. Cakepie voted for Slay, so if we vote for Slay and he flips scum, we've cleared cakepie. If we vote for Slay and he flips town, then Glurio looks more scummy for being the only unconfirmed town who voted for warbaby. I think lynching Slay is the best way to go at it. | ||
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
On February 01 2013 01:02 zarepath wrote: Start with the people who voted to kill the medic, obviously. We have votes to analyze, not just filters. Glurio and Slay seem like the most obvious places to start. Cakepie voted for Slay, so if we vote for Slay and he flips scum, we've cleared cakepie. If we vote for Slay and he flips town, then Glurio looks more scummy for being the only unconfirmed town who voted for warbaby. I think lynching Slay is the best way to go at it. You are convinced acid can't be scum? | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
If I were scum, I'd avoid having my name associated with the medic lynch. No need to lynch the medic (once he has claimed) since you can just NK him instead from safety. The only reason to lynch the medic is for convenience, but if I were scum I'd rather not blow my cover by swapping votes or casting a hammer vote. This, of course, is assuming both horses in the race were town. If Slay was scum, then obviously they are on the "vote anybody but slay" plan once he becomes a candidate. The primary reason for this is, well, exactly what you just posted. Everybody who voted the medic is suspect, so avoid suspicion at all costs. The difficult part, then becomes making your vote LOOK sensible. Slay did this by voting somebody who town was on, then going completely AFK. Glurio actually justified himself based on me (ouch). Cakepie believed the medic claim (which I guess in hindsight I should have as well) so he voted "the other train". Acid was on some crazy "anything but warbaby" lynch mob, but obviously he was in the right in this case. I admit, that keeps slay looking pretty scummy. I'd still like more content from Cake/Glurio/Slay if possible to look at. | ||
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
On February 01 2013 01:22 cakepie wrote: Guys, don't automatically assume that scum will kill the cop claim and leave us with two confirmed townies. I'm playing based off of that assumption. If it changes then I'll be around to change my play, but if it doesn't then my play is justified right now. | ||
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
On January 31 2013 09:24 cakepie wrote: What do you guys think of as the better alternative, glurio or slayalot? I was willing to get behind warbaby's vote on glurio, but things moved too quickly. (Basis: voting patterns) In any case I am not willing to be on either the cora or warbaby wagons. This post occured shortly after my cop claim. I'd like to highlight it. At this point there were (I think, since we didn't have any votecounts) 4 on warbaby, 3 on Cora, 1 on Slay. Or something similar. Actually, Cakepie may have not voted at all, leaving it at 4-3 at that stage. Either way, I'd like to point out that right about here is where a scum would have done something like "OMFG LOOK AT DAT WARBABY SCUMMY AS HELL LETS VOTE HIM". Not being willing to be on a wagon is very townie. Scum are generally desperate for easy wagons to park their vote on, especially when warbaby and cora are both town. This actually narrows it down to (IMO) 3 possible scum candidates right now: Acid, Glurio and Slay. Now, if Slay is mafia, then so must be glurio (otherwise the votes make no sense, why would acid lynch a scumbuddy when he could totally have hammered WB with ease?. If slay is NOT mafia, then acid and glurio are the scumteam. EITHER WAY, GLURIO IS SCUM. As far as I'm concerned, Glurio is scum. | ||
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
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Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
On February 01 2013 01:02 zarepath wrote: Start with the people who voted to kill the medic, obviously. We have votes to analyze, not just filters. Glurio and Slay seem like the most obvious places to start. Cakepie voted for Slay, so if we vote for Slay and he flips scum, we've cleared cakepie. If we vote for Slay and he flips town, then Glurio looks more scummy for being the only unconfirmed town who voted for warbaby. I think lynching Slay is the best way to go at it. If we mislynch tomorrow, we lose. | ||
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glurio
Germany597 Posts
Right now i've see the situation like this: Either cake and slay or sn0 with slay/cora/cake are the scum. What favors team lurker in my opinion is: no kill in the N1, so both lurkers really didn't send an action in. Also slays play in the beginning was scummy as hell. (Always points out he's noob town, who wants to be recognised as noob? No one will listen, it just doesn't make sense in my eyes.) Cake conveniently became active just before the D2 Lynch. Seeing his, mostly inactive, scum buddy parked on the claimed medic. So he tried to get him lynched earning him a ton of town cred. Either way he would win. Now what i believe is more likely: sn0 is scum. Gambling with claiming cop and just one minute to late to unvote, what a shame! Could have unvoted 5 minutes earlier if u wanted, you were here the whole time. You were the one who actually convinced me to keep my vote on warbaby with your whole "i don't wanna check him i wanna see him die." You didn't unvote, so i didn't. Thought the whole game you were right. Then while warbaby claimed, confusing everybody with "the real doctor shouldn't claim blahblah" and then went to "please claim real doctor" all the while after the claim staying on warbaby with your vote. This would either work out with cora, his supposedely N1 target who could be either town or scum who's just in this whole charade or one of the lurkers. Who also parked his vote on warbaby and left to go do "work", but has time 20 minutes after the lynch to sneak in a message? Just before the lynch i'm sure there wasn't time to unvote. For me sn0 right now is clearly scum. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 01 2013 01:26 Sn0_Man wrote: If I were scum, I'd avoid having my name associated with the medic lynch. No need to lynch the medic (once he has claimed) since you can just NK him instead from safety. The only reason to lynch the medic is for convenience, but if I were scum I'd rather not blow my cover by swapping votes or casting a hammer vote. Except why not? Warbaby managed to alienate himself vs so many people that the free medic lynch would look really safe and tempting. Many players already had a poor assessment of warbaby, it was precisely the fact that he looked set to be under then gun that led to him softclaiming, and then being forced to hard claim. - Acid was engaged in a mutual tunnel fest with warbaby - Corazon had serious issues with warbaby (and acid) getting too embroiled with one another and not helping look elsewhere - Acid, zare, sn0 already voting warbaby before the claim - glurio had cast slight suspicion on the basis of warbaby D1 voteswitching Scum was foiled N1 and did not get a kill in. Why not ensure the death of the medic and free up the night kill for hunting another blue role, or offing players who are the greatest threat, coming too close to finding scum? It's all WIFOM. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 01 2013 01:28 Sn0_Man wrote: I'm playing based off of that assumption. If it changes then I'll be around to change my play, but if it doesn't then my play is justified right now. No, you need to consider both possibilities. At 4-2 it will be a MYLO on D3. It is in fact completely plausible for scum to aim for zero confirmed townies by killing Zare, keeping both you (Sn0) and Cora in the game, trying to discredit you based on D2 play and voting, and playing for the mislynch. On the other hand, Sn0 flipping cop with the nightkill gives us two confirmed townies at 4-2 MYLO. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I reiterate that Zare and Sn0 really need to post a predawn will; most likely one of you will die tonight. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Let me share with you my most important observation, coming into the game as a fresh replacement, without the emotional investment of D1, N1, and early-to-mid D2, and speaking as an outsider reading all of that while catching up to the thread. Look at who among you are willing to come out and make controversial statements and possibly offend people. And look at who is simply content to safely cast weak suspicions all over the place without commitment, sheep opinions that are already expressed by other players, and wagon their vote without justification. The nature of D1, with the lack of any information, is that any "scumhunting" is going to be a crapshoot, relying on very weak evidence. There will often necessarily be plenty of WIFOM. (This holds true extending into D2 in this game, given how useless D1 was.) This is not unexpected. The problem with what happened subsequently, is that defenses and counteroffensives became a huge pile of OMGUS, and WIFOM upon WIFOM, spiraling out of control. And everyone got entangled into this messy web. A lot of arguments were built upon: - "this is a terrible case, hence X is scum" - "this is scum trying to save himself" - "this is scum trying to save a scumbuddy" But: - Weak cases are a necessary evil in the early game. Bad cases at this point should be null at best, and perhaps even contribute a town lean for effort. - why can't a townie want to save himself ? - why can't a townie want to save someone that they have a good reason to believe is town? There are equally valid townie explanations for many of the actions that we've seen, but the focus has been placed far too greatly upon trying to find any reason at all to cast someone as scummy. Take a moment, and remember: It's a newbie game. Now, it is not my intent to offer a free noob-pass to anyone, but I find it troubling that plays that are easily explained by hypothesis of inexperienced town and inexperienced blue are instead cast in the light of convoluted, gutsy expert scum conspiracies and gambits. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is my perspective, from a position where I remain as detached as I can from the shit-flinging (especially early D2). We are at MYLO, and I see my task now as very simple: find the scummiest player, and lynch them. This mantra, which I learned from my last game, is the only thing I can do now, and indeed the only thing any townie can do now. If we do it right, then we continue the hunt. If we do this wrong, we lose. I'm not being defeatist, I'm just being a realist -- this is the situation we find ourselves in. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 01 2013 03:00 glurio wrote: Either cake and slay or sn0 with slay/cora/cake are the scum. Hmm, thats four out of seven people. Wow. And if Zare dies tonight to eliminate the almost-confirmed townie who also happens to be possibly quite threatening with his play, that's four out of six! On February 01 2013 03:00 glurio wrote: What favors team lurker in my opinion is: no kill in the N1, so both lurkers really didn't send an action in. Also slays play in the beginning was scummy as hell. (Always points out he's noob town, who wants to be recognised as noob? No one will listen, it just doesn't make sense in my eyes.) Cake conveniently became active just before the D2 Lynch. Seeing his, mostly inactive, scum buddy parked on the claimed medic. So he tried to get him lynched earning him a ton of town cred. Either way he would win. Again with the implausible no nightaction assumption + association case without flip. Or trying to build an association case before flip so you can point to it as reason lynch me after you bus Slayalot with the rest of us? After all, he took quite a bit of heat toward the end of D2 and nearly got lynched instead of warbaby. On February 01 2013 03:00 glurio wrote: Now what i believe is more likely: sn0 is scum. Gambling with claiming cop and just one minute to late to unvote, what a shame! Could have unvoted 5 minutes earlier if u wanted, you were here the whole time. WIFOM. There are equally good town and scum explanations for what happened. nuff said. On February 01 2013 03:00 glurio wrote: You were the one who actually convinced me to keep my vote on warbaby with your whole "i don't wanna check him i wanna see him die." You didn't unvote, so i didn't. Thought the whole game you were right. Then while warbaby claimed, confusing everybody with "the real doctor shouldn't claim blahblah" and then went to "please claim real doctor" all the while after the claim staying on warbaby with your vote. Another guy shifting responsibility. What is it with all you guys, can't take responsibility for your votes? | ||
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
On February 01 2013 04:10 cakepie wrote:What is it with all you guys, can't take responsibility for your votes? I'm happy to take responsibility for my vote. I tried to switch last minute but in hindsight I'm not sure I should have tried. Sure, I regret the medic is dead but town FINALLY has some clarity here. If we lynch slayalot (and he wasn't scum) then unless warbaby is NK'd there is still a bunch of confusion in town (IMO). Now its easy. Glurio is scum, since there are 4 candidates, cake is clean, and Acid/Slay is not a scumteam that makes sense. Also, I wish to point out Glurio's hilarious 180 OMGUS on me. Admittedly, I 180'd on him but my read was fairly baseless. | ||
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glurio
Germany597 Posts
Your bullshit cop gamble seems to have paid off. So whoever you “check“ tonight will turn out red followed by another orchestrated mislynch by you. You and whoever is your scumteam will win. Already said the double lurker no-action scenario is the unlikely one cake. I'll try to narrow my candidates down tomorrow. Don't have time today last exam tomorrow wanna sleep early. So i'm off for the night. | ||
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
You might need to figure out a way to explain my votes yesterday before you call me scum though. IF I'm scum, I have 1 (one) scumbuddy. Who is that? First off, I go WAY out of my way to save Corazon (and in the process commit near-suicide if there is a counter-cop claim). So my scumbuddy would be Corazon then right? Okay, so then why do I resist the swap over to slayalot so hard? Scum are happy to swap horses in a 2-town race. Hell, If I'm scum, I take the deal offered me where medic protects me tonight and I (obviously) kill medic with night action (as expected no matter who scum is) and then its down to 6 only I now have this invincible cop claim and *can't* lose. The only way I don't do that is if Slay is my scumbuddy, but then I don't cop claim to save Cora 2 hours earlier. It's bullshit glurio, but I applaud your ability to step up your game. I hadn't expected it of you, but doing it now is a bit of a giveaway that you are feeling threatened as scum. Your entire defense up until now was that... you were incapable of making arguments like this rofl. | ||
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
Sn0- Although he has been defending me most of the game, I’m suspicious of him. His scum hunting hasn’t been very good so far. He did more of a mediating role in D2 rather than actually scumhunting. He jumped on the WB wagon while it was in full swing. In addition, his last minute vote switch so “badly timed” from Warbaby has me very suspicious about him. It sounds like a ploy to gain town favor by simply making a mistake that he did not want the doctor to be lynched. If you think about, it’s a good way for scum to get away with the mislynch of one of the most key blue roles the town has. If someone tries to say that he really meant to vote Warbaby off, he could say that he meant to switch, but just did it a tad too late. Of course, no one knows his intentions but himself. The cop claim is also a bit sketchy. Although a lot more well done than Warbaby, it still has yet to be put up against any real pressure. Anyone could have claimed cop and said that I am town. All they needed to do was not have a counter-claim. If Sn0 survives the night, I would be ridiculously suspicious about him. Why would the mafia not take a chance and get a free blue kill after the town killed off the other blue? It’s too tempting of a proposition to pass up. Acid- I’m still waiting to see a bit more scumhunting from Acid. I’ve already said a bunch of stuff about him. One thing I would like to add however, is now that Warbaby has been flipped: Acid was tunneling the Doctor until about 90 minutes left in D2. It’s just the facts. If he picks up on the promising start on N2, it will go a long way to change my opinion on him. Slayalot- Needs to post more. He’s even admitted to just lurking and not posting enough. He should have known before signing up that this game requires a huge amount of effort and attention. I believe he’s just saying all of that because claiming scum isn’t a very good excuse for not posting. Glurio- Mostly the same problems, and his posts have not been very good. Cakepie- Same problem, except he has a legitimate excuse that he made in the beginning of the game before he even was replaced in. Zare is obviously decently confirmed town based off of WB’s flip. However, his case making needs to revert back to the decent cases he was making before the god awful one where he voted me. He shouldn’t also be trying to divert too much blame away for the Wb lynch from himself, although it’s not 100% on him. If he’s town, he should be playing like town and admit he made a bad case, not spreading the blame on others. | ||
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
Plus I already showed how it has to be him by logic. Also, I didn't defend you most of the game. Only since the beginning of Day 2 when I got my check back on u. Look before that. | ||
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
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