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Newbie Mini Mafia XXXVI - Page 34

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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cakepie
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
985 Posts
February 01 2013 02:57 GMT
#661
On February 01 2013 11:26 cakepie wrote:
That is such a terrible crumb. There's no system whatsoever to the way you claim to hide the message.
Do you realize that it is technically possible to take any arbitrary, sufficiently long text, and pull out letters selectively to form almost any message one desires?

I'm a little teapot.
meaningless example, but QED.
cakepie
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
985 Posts
February 01 2013 02:58 GMT
#662
On February 01 2013 11:54 cDgCorazon wrote:
Let's see what Sn0's check was before going any further (unless he said who he was checking before).



-----


On February 01 2013 09:22 cakepie wrote:

Also please declare your night action target at XX:59:50 with justification for your choice. This will help if you actually survive.




On February 01 2013 09:59 Sn0_Man wrote:
Night action:

I'm checking acid because he's the loose cannon. Glurio *is* scum, acid is unknown, along with slay.

I feel like a cleared acid is very powerful, and if hes scum then gg.



On February 01 2013 10:08 cakepie wrote:
GG zare!

Let's have that cop check result.



On February 01 2013 10:12 Sn0_Man wrote:
Town.


Corazon
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United States3230 Posts
February 01 2013 03:48 GMT
#663
Well I'm not willing to restate the obvious, but if Sn0 is telling the truth, the only possible scum are:

Cakepie
Glurio
Slayalot

I'm all for lynching either Glurio or Slayalot today. I want to see how both of them play out D3 before making a decision.

I'm really sorry for the shitty N2. I've had a lot of work and school in the past 2 days (basically I've had 3-4 hours of free time in the past 36 hours), and all of the emotion I had to put into D2 really drained me. Unless someone objects, I'm going to take a few hours away from the game to clear my head and start being a good town player, not one who is being inhibitive to the scumhunt.
Grubby's #1 Fan
cakepie
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
985 Posts
February 01 2013 07:48 GMT
#664
In the context of:
On February 01 2013 12:48 cDgCorazon wrote:
if Sn0 is telling the truth, the only possible scum are:
Cakepie
Glurio
Slayalot


Clearly, I get to use process of elimination to arrive at two scum, if I were to believe Sn0's cop claim and his two town checks. (Note that at this point, I consider Sn0's claims as admissible circumstantial evidence to be used in conjunction with my reads based on their play and voting, but not necessarily unassailable truth.)


Anyone else subscribing to "Sn0 is telling the truth" needs to justify their choice of two of three possible scum (and by extension, who of three is town).


Corazon will at some point need to explain where he derives the bias against Glurio and Slayalot from. He's almost given me a free pass, a dangerous thing to do at MYLO.
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 01 2013 12:48 cDgCorazon wrote:
I'm all for lynching either Glurio or Slayalot today. I want to see how both of them play out D3 before making a decision.



Sn0 uses a town read on me to conclude glurio is scum and to decide to check Acid:
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 01 2013 01:42 Sn0_Man wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 31 2013 09:24 cakepie wrote:
What do you guys think of as the better alternative, glurio or slayalot?

I was willing to get behind warbaby's vote on glurio, but things moved too quickly.
(Basis: voting patterns)

In any case I am not willing to be on either the cora or warbaby wagons.


This post occured shortly after my cop claim. I'd like to highlight it. At this point there were (I think, since we didn't have any votecounts) 4 on warbaby, 3 on Cora, 1 on Slay. Or something similar. Actually, Cakepie may have not voted at all, leaving it at 4-3 at that stage. Either way, I'd like to point out that right about here is where a scum would have done something like "OMFG LOOK AT DAT WARBABY SCUMMY AS HELL LETS VOTE HIM". Not being willing to be on a wagon is very townie. Scum are generally desperate for easy wagons to park their vote on, especially when warbaby and cora are both town.

This actually narrows it down to (IMO) 3 possible scum candidates right now: Acid, Glurio and Slay.

Now, if Slay is mafia, then so must be glurio (otherwise the votes make no sense, why would acid lynch a scumbuddy when he could totally have hammered WB with ease?.

If slay is NOT mafia, then acid and glurio are the scumteam. EITHER WAY, GLURIO IS SCUM.

As far as I'm concerned, Glurio is scum.

He admits it's not ideal basis to make such a strong read:
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 01 2013 01:57 Sn0_Man wrote:
Okay maybe the read on cakepie is a little strong to base on just 1 post, but I thought that post was very indicative of his overall play.

Without a red cop check, you're going to have to have a much stronger basis than just a read on a single post to eliminate me as possible scum.


Acid gave a list early in N2, but I think that needs to be revisited in the context of new information i.e. zare's flip and sn0's claimed N2 green check.
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 31 2013 11:50 Acid~ wrote:
I know you all love list posts, so here it is:


cDgCorazon: TOWN - conditional on Sn0_Man actually being cop

cakepie: so far the vote and general attitude have me leaning TOWN

Slayalot: this is not about lurking anymore, but deliberate inactivity and refusal to participate in the scumhunt. SCUM

Sn0_Man: If he is scum, then he attacked Corazon d1 with the intention of proving him innocent d2, but Corazon wasn't under any scrutiny d1 apart from Sn0... plus the breadcrumbing early in the day... it doesn't make sense to me. Also, he switched off warbaby at the end and there is no way to tell if the precise last minute posting was intentional or not. Still, I noticed something but I'm not sure I want to talk about it yet. There is definitely a possible scenario where the scum team is Sn0_Man+Corazon but it requires no one to counterclaim cop which is a 50/50 gamble on their part. Tough call but... when in doubt refer to the simplest explanation, so: TOWN

zarepath: playing about the same as in XXXV where he was town. N1 results + warbaby's claim make him a pretty strong TOWN read.

glurio: Refused to switch off warbaby, general inactivity + there's no one else = SCUM



glurio and slayalot can obviously also choose to believe Sn0 and then arrive at two scum by eliminating themselves with a town claim. However glurio will have a hard time making a scumteam of Slayalot + myself look plausible on the basis of Sn0's claimed cop checks -- he'd have to pull a 180 of a 180 of his read on Sn0 to get there.


================================================================================

I'm still trying to decide what to make of Corazon's ridiculous N2 deception plan and the associated crumb:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17687661

I've demonstrated how it the crumb is awful:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17687687
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17687837

Corazon has apologized for bad crumb:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17687707
and bad N2 play:
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 01 2013 12:48 cDgCorazon wrote:
I'm really sorry for the shitty N2. I've had a lot of work and school in the past 2 days (basically I've had 3-4 hours of free time in the past 36 hours), and all of the emotion I had to put into D2 really drained me.



It should be clear that lying in a newbie game is generally unacceptable, so such deception play is already terribad on account of that alone. Additionally, the rationale behind the deception is ...questionable...?

On February 01 2013 11:22 cDgCorazon wrote:
If the general consensus is that Sn0 is cop, then the scum would've taken him out immediately. I faked a lack of consensus that Sn0 was cop (and the fact that not everyone was 100% sold on his claim) so that the scum would choose to lynch someone else, and Sn0's all-important check would be allowed to be heard today.


Remember, we might have had Sn0 killed N2 giving two confirmed townies.
Instead, our current situation is one where we have either:
- 2 scum out of 3 candidates if you completely believe Sn0, or
- Sn0 is a liar, but his scumbuddy could be almost anybody
I am not completely sure which situation would have been better for us.

On top of that, Corazon's little plan opens himself up to attack, provides ammunition for a Sn0-cora scumteam association case, and reopens a D2 can of worms.

I'm also not completely convinced that if there had been no "artificial" suspicions on Sn0 from Corazon, scum would happily killed Sn0 and given us two confirmed townies with Sn0's cop flip on a 4-2 MYLO day.

Lastly, Zarepath ended up being engaged in discussion with Corazon for a little bit due to this. How much of his will is influenced no thanks to being misled by Cora's play? How much of it is what he would have believed without that influence? We'll never know now.


================================================================================

On February 01 2013 12:48 cDgCorazon wrote:I'm going to take a few hours away from the game to clear my head and start being a good town player, not one who is being inhibitive to the scumhunt.


Have a good night's sleep, come back fresh tomorrow.
glurio
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany597 Posts
February 01 2013 13:03 GMT
#665
On February 01 2013 11:40 cakepie wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 01 2013 10:00 zarepath wrote:
It's possible you should no-lynch tomorrow so you have the time to MAKE Sn0 either make two reads, or be lynched again by scum and still be in a good spot.


What do people think about this? Do you think that if we no-lynch today, scum will have to kill Sn0 with the N3 nightkill?

I feel that:

If Sn0 is really cop, scum would be happy to let him get a check in and kill someone else instead. They can still discredit the hell out of him again on D4, it would be no different from today.

If Sn0 is scum with cop fakeclaim, he'll live through to D4 anyways <-- this possibility enables the WIFOM value above.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For now, we've already heard from glurio during N2, but Slayalot has not posted in 28 hours. So I'm going to start with this and see where it takes us with regard to my two strongest scumreads.

##Vote: Slayalot
##FoS: glurio


Reason:
On February 01 2013 04:00 cakepie wrote:
who is simply content to safely cast weak suspicions all over the place without commitment, sheep opinions that are already expressed by other players, and wagon their vote without justification.


as well as voting patterns

D1 voting

27 21:17 zarepath -> AFKing
28 00:39 warbaby -> SkaPunk
28 03:41 Sn0_Man -> SkaPunk
28 03:59 cDgCorazon -> Abenson
28 05:08 Slayalot -> SkaPunk
28 05:22 glurio -> SkaPunk

28 08:35 warbaby -> Abenson
28 09:37 warbaby -> AFKing
28 09:55 cDgCorazon -> SkaPunk





D2 voting

As at Slayalot's 31 Jan 07:02 KST vote:
29 10:46 Acid -> warbaby
29 11:02 warbaby -> Acid
29 15:30 warbaby -> -none-
30 02:38 Sn0_Man -> warbaby
30 07:57 cDgCorazon -> Acid
31 00:34 zarepath -> warbaby
31 03:06 warbaby -> Slayalot
31 05:38 glurio -> warbaby
31 06:31 zarepath -> -none-
31 06:37 warbaby -> glurio
31 07:02 Slayalot -> warbaby
[...]

warbaby (4): Acid, Sn0, zarepath, glurio, Slayalot



Look at sn0s voting pattern and don't just cherry pick what fits your agenda.

also

On February 01 2013 04:00 cakepie wrote:
who is simply content to safely cast weak suspicions all over the place without commitment, sheep opinions that are already expressed by other players, and wagon their vote without justification.
[/spoiler]

Since N1 i thought warbaby was scum, clearly explained in nearly all my posts. I was the first one to bring up warbabys odd vote pattern D1. That also should explain my vote on D2. I never casted weak suspicion i casted strong one right at warbaby. I also believed sn0s claim and not warbabys. And i clearly commited myself to warbaby.

And why i'm now getting more active? Pretty simple really: i don't want to lose, especially not to some bullshit gamble like sn0s fake claim. If we are led to believe his claim he will easily be able to bring us to another mislynch, like he did with warbaby before.
Don't believe Sn0 he is lying scum.

+ Show Spoiler +
On February 01 2013 07:02 glurio wrote:
There is nothing hilarious about it. You turned out to be scum.
Your bullshit cop gamble seems to have paid off. So whoever you “check“ tonight will turn out red followed by another orchestrated mislynch by you. You and whoever is your scumteam will win.

Already said the double lurker no-action scenario is the unlikely one cake.
I'll try to narrow my candidates down tomorrow. Don't have time today last exam tomorrow wanna sleep early. So i'm off for the night.


Of course after i called out he couldn't find a red one.

I don't believe a no-lynch is a good option we should just lynch Sn0.
If we don't lynch him today he'll just kill one of his town reads who is actually town and we are in the same position with 3-2 instead of 4-2 against Sn0s scum team.
Whether you think you can, or think you can't, you're right. - Henry Ford
Corazon
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United States3230 Posts
February 01 2013 15:13 GMT
#666
On February 01 2013 22:03 glurio wrote:
I also believed sn0s claim and not warbabys. And i clearly commited myself to warbaby.



And why i'm now getting more active? Pretty simple really: i don't want to lose, especially not to some bullshit gamble like sn0s fake claim.
Don't believe Sn0 he is lying scum.



Which one is it Glurio? What made you believe Sn0's claim before and what made you not believe it now?

Any role claim would need to withstand serious fire to be accepted, and I think Sn0's has.

1) Lack of counter-claim (Mafia cop would not want to claim because lynching one of them gets one half of the scum team either killed that day or the next)
2) Lack of a roleblock claim (We've had two night cycles, I don't think anyone would have lied about being RB'd D2. If they were RB'd they would've said it at the beginning of D2, and Sn0 claimed towards end of D2.)
3)His check on me was correct (It's only confirming for me, but it's what solidifies my opinion.

Let's just say Sn0 is indeed Cop (hypothetically). Who else would you suspect of being scum?
Grubby's #1 Fan
Sn0_Man
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
Tebellong44238 Posts
February 01 2013 15:40 GMT
#667
On February 01 2013 11:40 cakepie wrote:

For now, we've already heard from glurio during N2, but Slayalot has not posted in 28 hours. So I'm going to start with this and see where it takes us with regard to my two strongest scumreads.

##Vote: Slayalot
##FoS: glurio



I heard your reason, but would you consider voting for glurio over Slay? The reason being that for the rest of us, Glurio is 100% scum whereas there is some very small amount of uncertainty over slayalot vs you as his scumbuddy.

@cDgCorazon: That "breadcrumb" was straight up awful, but I suppose thanks for the thought? Being alive is nice, although even if I were dead I think you guys have the tools to win at this point.

In other news, check out that big quality post by glurio. Daaaaaamn son, coloured letters for my name and everything! Where was all this the first 2 days/nights of the game? Oh thats right you were in hiding as scum -_-

I love how the excuse for posting now is "I don't want to lose"... Lets be serious. If you didn't want to lose you would post more day 1/day 2 (as town). If it isn't blatantly obvious by now that you are NOT town, then I don't know what gives.

PS: I'm still waiting for anybody to come up with any kind of even remotely comrehendable explanation for my actions being scum.

PPS: I'm willing to listen to more discussion re: a no-lynch today.

LiquidDota StaffSCIENTISTS BAFFLED | 3275929302
Sn0_Man
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
Tebellong44238 Posts
February 01 2013 15:47 GMT
#668
Alright, more on the topic of a no-lynch.

Lets assume a no-lynch happens. Who, then, gets NK'ed? Not me or Cora, because either of those prove me right and therefore prove Glurio/Slay scumteam. Not glurio/slay, because those prove me wrong, aka I'm scum, aka I wouldn't make that lynch (unless cake is somehow scum in which case A: LOL B: him and glurio could NK slay to make me look wrong but all that does is give us info). So the only NK's that make sense from any perspective are acid/cake. Neither of those NK's help town determine whether I am really a cop or lying scum. My check that night could be slay or glurio or cake, it makes little or no difference, because the results come down to: DO YOU BELIEVE ME?

That question is the entirety of this game right now. BTW you is Acid/Cake/Cora. Slay/Glurio obviously won't believe me.
LiquidDota StaffSCIENTISTS BAFFLED | 3275929302
Slayalot
Profile Joined January 2013
Denmark15 Posts
February 01 2013 15:51 GMT
#669
Hello guys

2 questions

1: Is the "no-lynch" off the table again? (Cause it makes alot of sense. Giving 1 more day to outnumber scum. If I understand correctly)

2: Has Acid been proven town or killed? Or why is no one talking about him?

Since the page 1 isn't updated on "spoiler -flips" I don't konw how many are left. Can this either be updated or someone tell me.
Sn0_Man
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
Tebellong44238 Posts
February 01 2013 15:54 GMT
#670
On February 02 2013 00:51 Slayalot wrote:
Hello guys

2 questions

1: Is the "no-lynch" off the table again? (Cause it makes alot of sense. Giving 1 more day to outnumber scum. If I understand correctly)

2: Has Acid been proven town or killed? Or why is no one talking about him?

Since the page 1 isn't updated on "spoiler -flips" I don't konw how many are left. Can this either be updated or someone tell me.


o_o

Acid is alive, and my Cop check on him came back town.

So, Still living is:

Me (Cop)
cDgCorazon (Cop checked as town)
Acid (Cop checked as town)
cakepie
glurio
Slayalot (you).
LiquidDota StaffSCIENTISTS BAFFLED | 3275929302
Sn0_Man
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
Tebellong44238 Posts
February 01 2013 15:57 GMT
#671
In addition, the flips are/were:

SkaPunk (Died day 1 as Vanilla Town)
Warbaby (Died day 2 as Doctor)
zarepath (Died night 2 as Vanilla Town)

There was no Night 1 kill as it was (we assume) blocked by warbaby.
LiquidDota StaffSCIENTISTS BAFFLED | 3275929302
Sn0_Man
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
Tebellong44238 Posts
February 01 2013 16:20 GMT
#672
There is no way for me to legally suicide immediately is there? (Obviously getting myself modkilled is cheating by the rules + gets me banned + requires doing something undesirable)

If I could suicide, and my flip would be shown BEFORE LYNCH, I'd do it. However, the fact that it is MYLO means I can't just vote for myself

My flip would prove my cop claim and prove the scumteam fairly conclusively (okay it could still be cakepie over slay but I don't think that would be an issue).
LiquidDota StaffSCIENTISTS BAFFLED | 3275929302
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36161 Posts
February 01 2013 19:37 GMT
#673
On February 02 2013 01:20 Sn0_Man wrote:
There is no way for me to legally suicide immediately is there?


No.
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
Sn0_Man
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
Tebellong44238 Posts
February 01 2013 19:41 GMT
#674
On February 02 2013 04:37 marvellosity wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 02 2013 01:20 Sn0_Man wrote:
There is no way for me to legally suicide immediately is there?


No.


Alright, thanks. No surprise.

Anyway, this thread is pretty dead atm...

I guess everything that needs saying has been said? Either way...

##Vote: glurio

I'd much rather consolidate on glurio than on slay, because of the very slight chance of a glurio/cake scumteam. Cakepie moving your vote to glurio would help assuage my fears on that.
LiquidDota StaffSCIENTISTS BAFFLED | 3275929302
glurio
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany597 Posts
February 01 2013 20:09 GMT
#675
Nice try Sn0scum. I'd much rather consolidate on you so you and your scumteam loses.

He killed warbaby, cora. Thats what makes me believe hes the clearest scum in the game.
Never thought someone would make such a blatant gamble and actually might get through with it.
Sn0 is scum, don't believe him!
Whether you think you can, or think you can't, you're right. - Henry Ford
glurio
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany597 Posts
February 01 2013 20:16 GMT
#676
Even his question to the mods is such a joke. It's obvious you're not allowed to suicide, nice way trying to fool us into thinking youre a real cop.

Even asking for no-lynch is stupid. Already explained how sn0 will go on with the cop claiming shit. Next night he'll just kill the actual townie he "checked". "See guys, i was right all along!"

How can you explain your vote history sn0? Killing the town medic? Not even trying to defend yourself. Seems to be scum 101, just ignore every accusation and ramble on about your crazy scumreads.

I have to go to a party now. Will post more tomorrow. Have a good night everyone. Don't believe Sn0. Look at his actions not only what crazy shit he says in this thread.
Whether you think you can, or think you can't, you're right. - Henry Ford
Sn0_Man
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
Tebellong44238 Posts
February 01 2013 20:21 GMT
#677
Hmm, my vote history is identical to glurio's. Fascinating how incriminating MY vote history is.
LiquidDota StaffSCIENTISTS BAFFLED | 3275929302
cakepie
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
985 Posts
February 01 2013 21:06 GMT
#678
Glurio, if you're so sure about Sn0, why don't you vote him? Not willing to commit your vote on your strongest scumread?
Corazon
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United States3230 Posts
February 01 2013 21:10 GMT
#679
Glurio, you already know how I feel about the WB lynch. You could've unvoted him too, but you decided not to. His death is just as much your fault as it is Sn0's.
Grubby's #1 Fan
cakepie
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
985 Posts
February 01 2013 22:15 GMT
#680
Guys, I want to emphasize that we cannot simply play today based solely on the reasoning that: "I strongly believe Sno's cop claim and his green checks, therefore we've already solved this game easily". Over reliance on blue powers, and thus slacking off on your own scumhunting, is a poor way to play and will not help you improve.

The cop claim may look strong especially in the absence of a JK claim, but remember, a strong read is still not 100% certainty. Only a dead man's flip is certain. There remains the (admittedly slim) possibility that there is only Doc and no other power role in this game, and Sn0 is simply lying.

@ Cora, Acid: "Sn0 has my alignment correct" should be a null tell. Scum with a cop fakeclaim could also trivially supply correct alignments, because they already know. DO NOT use this as basis to support your belief that he is honest.

I've talked about it before ( here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17689059 ) but I want to reiterate: you are going to have to build more of a case to justify your voting today -- please do not rely too much on the basis of the cop check information.

I'm not saying that I consider Sn0's claim to be a lie -- the claim is fairly strong. It serves as great backing evidence to go with my own reads. But it is not 100% unassailable, so I depend on what I see in the play of glurio and slayalot (although it is more like failure to actually play, in slay's case)

Basically, what I'm trying to get at, is that this statement:
On February 02 2013 00:47 Sn0_Man wrote:
DO YOU BELIEVE ME?
That question is the entirety of this game right now. BTW you is Acid/Cake/Cora. Slay/Glurio obviously won't believe me.

That's not actually true at all. We all need to scumhunt for other supporting evidence against lynch targets, instead of simply banking on strong belief in a cop claim.

-----

On February 02 2013 04:41 Sn0_Man wrote:
I'd much rather consolidate on glurio than on slay, because of the very slight chance of a glurio/cake scumteam. Cakepie moving your vote to glurio would help assuage my fears on that.


Glurio seems to be happy to continue digging his grave for the time being, and I think you'll continue to see that I have no problem with pointing out what's wrong with his play and posting behavior.

Slayalot on the other hand is simply not even playing. He's gone for close to 42 hours, and then when he comes back, is simply content to let others do the playing and thinking for him:

+ Show Spoiler +
On February 02 2013 00:51 Slayalot wrote:
Hello guys

2 questions

1: Is the "no-lynch" off the table again? (Cause it makes alot of sense. Giving 1 more day to outnumber scum. If I understand correctly)

2: Has Acid been proven town or killed? Or why is no one talking about him?

Since the page 1 isn't updated on "spoiler -flips" I don't konw how many are left. Can this either be updated or someone tell me.


Talking about the no-lynch option clearly demonstrates that he is at least up to date on what is going on, even if it was just a quick skim through and not a thourough read of the thread. There's only like half a dozen posts involving "no-lynch" -- not hard to search and see what people think about it, and do a bit of your own logical thinking. Instead, all he does is post an inane question like "it makes sense to me, did we already rule it out?" without demonstrating any in depth consideration about what a no-lynch would entail (in fact, all that was already discussed quite well.)

And the question about acid is just lazy.

And now he is gone from the thread again.

This is no way for a townie to be playing at 4:2 MYLO. I want to make him post more, so that we have something to work with. Whereas we've already got more from Glurio to pore over. (Yes, this game is so pathetic that I have to play D3 like it's D1.)

So, my vote stays on Slayalot, while I will continue prodding glurio with a strong FoS. I will not shut the door on glurio just yet -- he's got ONE CHANCE to demonstrate that we're wrong about him being scum, and that he is town. As long as we get him to continue posting, that is net positive for town. He can either successfully exonerate himself, or give us more evidence to use against him. So far it's looking more like the latter, though.
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