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?
If I'm lying about the cop claim, then I'm scum (presumably with cora).
If I'm telling the truth about the cop claim, then Glurio is scum with either slay or cake. Presumably slay.
The game is actually all figured out, but I'm the only person who *knows* I'm cop (except cora has a pretty good idea because I cop-claimed to save him and he knows he's town).
There are no other real explanations. Sure, you can "scumhunt" today to see if you believe me or not, but the entire game is solved one way or the other based on everybody's belief of my cop claim. And since there are 4 town 2 scum, I'd rather get 3 people on glurio ASAP so that 1 misled townie can't make a mislynch happen.
Lastly, glurio said he is off to a party followed by sleep so don't expect posts from him for a while.
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Why I think Sn0's claim is real:
On February 02 2013 00:13 cDgCorazon wrote:
1) Lack of counter-claim (Mafia cop would not want to claim because lynching one of them gets one half of the scum team either killed that day or the next)
2) Lack of a roleblock claim (We've had two night cycles, I don't think anyone would have lied about being RB'd D2. If they were RB'd they would've said it at the beginning of D2, and Sn0 claimed towards end of D2.)
3)His check on me was correct (It's only confirming for me, but it's what solidifies my opinion.
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On February 02 2013 07:31 cDgCorazon wrote:Why I think Sn0's claim is real: Show nested quote +On February 02 2013 00:13 cDgCorazon wrote:
1) Lack of counter-claim (Mafia cop would not want to claim because lynching one of them gets one half of the scum team either killed that day or the next)
2) Lack of a roleblock claim (We've had two night cycles, I don't think anyone would have lied about being RB'd D2. If they were RB'd they would've said it at the beginning of D2, and Sn0 claimed towards end of D2.)
3)His check on me was correct (It's only confirming for me, but it's what solidifies my opinion.
Those are pretty BS reasons, to be honest.
1) we could have only a medic (it's a possible setup)
2) we could have only a medic (it's a possible setup)
3) I believe the logic is that if I'm scum, so are you. Reason being I cop-claimed for no reason except to save you.
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On February 02 2013 07:24 Sn0_Man wrote:
The game is actually all figured out, but I'm the only person who *knows* I'm cop (except cora has a pretty good idea because I cop-claimed to save him and he knows he's town).
There are no other real explanations. Sure, you can "scumhunt" today to see if you believe me or not, but the entire game is solved one way or the other based on everybody's belief of my cop claim. And since there are 4 town 2 scum, I'd rather get 3 people on glurio ASAP so that 1 misled townie can't make a mislynch happen.
We have 26+ hours to work with here. The game may be solved from your perspective, but I don't see why the rest of us should not spend this available time to find other evidence that would help bolster our confidence that it's glurio being scum with his most likely partner being slayalot.
Additionally, like I said already, *I* can narrow it down to glurio and slayalot. The rest of you -- this includes you, Sn0 -- also still have to convince yourselves that the last scum is slayalot rather than me. But slay has given us practically nothing to work with.
Suppose we all sit around and thumb ass, and correctly lynch scum glurio correctly. His scumbuddy does not concede, someone dies N3. We go into D4 at 3-1 MYLO again. Why not use the time right now to generate more activity that can only help us with our analysis, both today in D3 and possibly tomorrow?
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On February 02 2013 07:37 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2013 07:24 Sn0_Man wrote:
The game is actually all figured out, but I'm the only person who *knows* I'm cop (except cora has a pretty good idea because I cop-claimed to save him and he knows he's town).
There are no other real explanations. Sure, you can "scumhunt" today to see if you believe me or not, but the entire game is solved one way or the other based on everybody's belief of my cop claim. And since there are 4 town 2 scum, I'd rather get 3 people on glurio ASAP so that 1 misled townie can't make a mislynch happen. We have 26+ hours to work with here. The game may be solved from your perspective, but I don't see why the rest of us should not spend this available time to find other evidence that would help bolster our confidence that it's glurio being scum with his most likely partner being slayalot. Additionally, like I said already, *I* can narrow it down to glurio and slayalot. The rest of you -- this includes you, Sn0 -- also still have to convince yourselves that the last scum is slayalot rather than me. But slay has given us practically nothing to work with. Suppose we all sit around and thumb ass, and correctly lynch scum glurio correctly. His scumbuddy does not concede, someone dies N3. We go into D4 at 3-1 MYLO again. Why not use the time right now to generate more activity that can only help us with our analysis, both today in D3 and possibly tomorrow?
Either I die in that scenario, or I have a cop check to establish the last scum. Its pretty much the same thing to me, but I guess I'm a bit over-fatalistic here.
As I said previously, I'd like you to vote for glurio asap (YOU TOO CORA) so that we have the first timestamp on a 3-vote, just in case I can't convince the rest of town (acid). Since, while I'd like consensus, at this point really we have a first-to-three gets lynched scenario.
Feel free to keep talking, but I'd like your vote now, not later. And since it is still POSSIBLE for the scumteam to be you and glurio, slayalot really isn't an acceptable lynch for the time being.
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On February 02 2013 07:47 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2013 07:37 cakepie wrote:
Suppose we all sit around and thumb ass, and correctly lynch scum glurio correctly. His scumbuddy does not concede, someone dies N3. We go into D4 at 3-1 MYLO again. Why not use the time right now to generate more activity that can only help us with our analysis, both today in D3 and possibly tomorrow?
Either I die in that scenario, or I have a cop check to establish the last scum. Its pretty much the same thing to me, but I guess I'm a bit over-fatalistic here.
You are completely pragmatic and absolutely correct. Those are precisely the only two sensible options assuming a glurio lynch today flips scum.
The corollary of that, of course, is that I don't need to convince you of anything. If you live, you solve the game using your powers, period. If you die, I need to convince Cora and Acid that I am town. Not you, Sn0. I don't need to worry about what you think. I'm playing for the endgame.
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On February 02 2013 07:47 Sn0_Man wrote:
As I said previously, I'd like you to vote for glurio asap (YOU TOO CORA) so that we have the first timestamp on a 3-vote, just in case I can't convince the rest of town (acid). Since, while I'd like consensus, at this point really we have a first-to-three gets lynched scenario.
Why can't you trust Acid more? In your perspective, he is confirmed town. And when I finally got in at the end of D2 and proposed alternative wagon on either glurio or slay, he was the first to act on it, planting the first vote back onto slayalot. He had good clarity of thought under time pressure (<1h to deadline):
+ Show Spoiler +On January 31 2013 10:00 Acid~ wrote:
I know how you feel, but play Pascal's wager on this.
If war is scum and you lynch him, you probably die tonight.
If war is scum and you save him, you die tonight and we lynch him tomorrow.
If war is medic and you lynch him, we lose medic and cop
If war is medic and you save him, he dies tonight but we save you. Adding that if war is medic and you are cop, you know zare and cora are innocent and you can check glurio
I just don't see a town Acid being the one stubborn town that combines with two scum to deliver the required 3 votes to mislynch.
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Sure but you are (more or less) willing to believe I'm cop so I KNOW you and cora are willing to vote with me, for now. Acid hasn't said a word on the topic for a long time.
Whatever. I'd like to see your vote on glurio but I can't force anything to happen.
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On February 02 2013 07:35 Sn0_Man wrote:
3) I believe the logic is that if I'm scum, so are you. Reason being I cop-claimed for no reason except to save you.
Well since I know I am town, I'm certain that you are Cop.
I'm going to vote for Glurio because of all the arguments above (voting history, activity level) and the fact that his arguments aren't good enough to convince me that Sn0 is town (the emotional "Sn0scum" BS is ridiculously suspicious as well).
##Vote: Glurio
A scum flip on Glurio would basically confirm everything about Sn0 and all of the webs interlinking with that (I'll save association cases for after the lynch).
Still waiting on some contribution from Acid and Slay.
I'll also have only 2 hours tomorrow to post and read stuff, so this is basically locking in my vote.
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On February 02 2013 16:11 cDgCorazon wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2013 07:35 Sn0_Man wrote:
3) I believe the logic is that if I'm scum, so are you. Reason being I cop-claimed for no reason except to save you. Well since I know I am town, I'm certain that you are Cop.
That's not how logic works. If you are scum, then he is scum. That doesn't imply that if you are town then he is town.
If he was scum he would also know your alignment.
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On February 02 2013 08:31 Sn0_Man wrote:
Sure but you are (more or less) willing to believe I'm cop so I KNOW you and cora are willing to vote with me, for now. Acid hasn't said a word on the topic for a long time.
Whatever. I'd like to see your vote on glurio but I can't force anything to happen.
My conundrum still stands. In order to believe your claim I also have to believe Corazon is town. If I had only your play to analyze I could believe your claim, especially uncontested.
Still, glurio managed to make himself look more scummy than Corazon, which is quite an achievement.
##Vote: glurio
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Ok slept well, cooled down. Time to write something.
On February 02 2013 05:21 Sn0_Man wrote:
Hmm, my vote history is identical to glurio's. Fascinating how incriminating MY vote history is.
Right. It's just as incriminating as mine or slays, which i thought cakepie should've also highlighted. So i did highlight it in a fitting color.
I narrowed it down to sn0/cora scumteam.
Let's now look at some posts of our sadly deceased fellows:
warbaby:
+ Show Spoiler +On January 31 2013 06:26 warbaby wrote:
Glurio's posting is flaccid. He plays like a terrified scum or someone who needs testosterone treatment.
Sn0 plays like a scum trying really hard and doing a decent job.
If cora is scum town is fucked. Watch this guy.
Obviously I think zare is town.
Process of elimination. QED.
Acid is the x factor which lowers the probability of my reads. Oh I do hate him so.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 31 2013 08:29 warbaby wrote:
Biggest problem I have with this, is that Cora is the only one I suggested might be playing a good scum game.
If zarepath is scum (which means there is a JK and I did *not* save Zare N1), and he anticipates that town is at least partially swinging in my favor, then this is an easy mislynch for zarepath.
I want to hear others' thoughts on this.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 31 2013 08:41 warbaby wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 08:33 zarepath wrote:
warbaby, I was the first to unvote you (as far as I can tell). I'm also putting myself way out here for Corazon. OK. We still cannot assume scum failed to make an action N1. So I have a 80% town - (some random probability of no N1 action) read on you. This is just barely enough to make me vote with you. That and the fact that Cora's current vote makes no sense to me -- confusion is the tool of scum.But if you're wrong, and cora flips town, then you and I are in some serious shit. I'm probably dying anyway, though, in the night kill. Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead! ##Unvote: Slayalot##Vote: cdgCorazon(I'm still interested in LAL on Slay, but since I am basically all-in, I need to trust my town read on zarepath.)
+ Show Spoiler +On January 31 2013 08:47 warbaby wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 06:26 warbaby wrote:
If cora is scum town is fucked. Watch this guy.
I really believe this. Cora accuses Acid of being shady, but I feel now it's Cora who is most shady in this game.And shadyness is definitely scummy.
zarepath:
+ Show Spoiler +On January 31 2013 22:57 zarepath wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 14:05 cDgCorazon wrote:I'm sorry Zare, but this post of yours disturbs me. On January 31 2013 12:03 zarepath wrote:
Glurio looks scummiest right now -- I have no idea why Cora and Sn0 parked their votes thusly, but Glurio isn't "confirmed town" by Sn0's uncontested cop claim. I'm referring to how Cora and Sn0 are "confirmed town" by Sn0's uncontested cop claim, but Glurio ISN'T. I am still not entirely certain about Sn0's cop claim, but if you assume its truth, then Glurio looks the scummiest. It's pretty straightforward.
and last his will:
+ Show Spoiler +On February 01 2013 10:00 zarepath wrote:
If Sn0_Man is not killed, I really suggest that you look at his filter, and the thread leading up to his cop claim. He only cop claimed after Cora was under a lot of attack and Acid is the one who suggested that he was breadcrumbing and cop claiming before he actually cop claimed -- and his earlier posts make it seem as though he didn't know the setup blue possibilities despite bieng cop. His breadcrumbs aren't entirely justified.
And his late post seems SUPER scummy. The thing is, I can totally see and understand a scum team realizing that if they don't do something, they're pretty much done for, and they ahve to take the 1-in-3 chance (closer to 1-in-2 because there was no evidence of a JK) to cop claim. It wasn't really meditated; Acid kind of just forced him into it (incidentally), and it was worth the risk.
It's possible you should no-lynch tomorrow so you have the time to MAKE Sn0 either make two reads, or be lynched again by scum and still be in a good spot.
So both towns who had a suspicion of sn0/cora scumteam are dead. How convenient.
Why would a scumteam not consisting of sn0/cora kill zare instead of the claimed cop? Since it seems like everyone just believes sn0 without doubting him a bit, save cake who i truly believe is town right now.
##Vote: Sn0
I didn't vote before because i wanted some more input on my theory. Yeah might be a mistake i just wanted everyone to read, and respond. Hardly anyone did except sn0/cora who are the accused.
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Nearly forgot this little gem of a scumslip!
On February 02 2013 16:11 cDgCorazon wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2013 07:35 Sn0_Man wrote:
3) I believe the logic is that if I'm scum, so are you. Reason being I cop-claimed for no reason except to save you. Well since I know I am town, I'm certain that you are Cop. I'm going to vote for Glurio because of all the arguments above (voting history, activity level) and the fact that his arguments aren't good enough to convince me that Sn0 is town (the emotional "Sn0scum" BS is ridiculously suspicious as well). ##Vote: GlurioA scum flip on Glurio would basically confirm everything about Sn0 and all of the webs interlinking with that (I'll save association cases for after the lynch). Still waiting on some contribution from Acid and Slay. I'll also have only 2 hours tomorrow to post and read stuff, so this is basically locking in my vote.
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Seriously Glurio if you're going to say I'm scum because of one mistype, that definitely means you are scum. There goes any chance of my vote changing.
The flaw in your "Sn0/Cora" scum team is that I'm VT. I've said it at least 5 times...
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On February 03 2013 01:38 cDgCorazon wrote:
Seriously Glurio if you're going to say I'm scum because of one mistype, that definitely means you are scum. There goes any chance of my vote changing.
The flaw in your "Sn0/Cora" scum team is that I'm VT. I've said it at least 5 times...
Oh. You said you're VT five times, well that must make it true then.
I'm the president of the USA
I'm the president of the USA
I'm the president of the USA
I'm the president of the USA
I'm the president of the USA
White House, here I come!
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Acid, glad you're here. I just woke up, let me get breakfast and we can hopefully have a more meaningful discussion than these other folks have been able to offer me. Please give me your thoughts about corazon's awful deception plan and the other things I've gone over in early D3.
Corazon, you've chosen to ignore everything I've said over the earlier part of D3. You've already used up your quota of noob allowance this game. I will not allow you to continue playing like this. It is anti-town. Even if you are VT, this does not help the rest of town figure out D3, and certainly does not help us if we do get to D4.
BRB once I grab a sammich.
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Fine Cake, I shall rephrase.
He's trying to convince us he is not scum with an argument that, to me, does not compute. How could I possibly vote for Sn0 over him?
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Another thing I would like to point out in Glurio's recent attack:
He makes quotes by Warbaby saying that WB thought I was scum. This is not conclusive evidence at all. Just because the doctor says I'm scum does not mean that I am scum. I attacked Warbaby thinking HE was scum, but he wasn't. Your logic is broken Glurio.
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I want to talk about Corazon.
There's not enough activity from glurio to make a case. Bottom line is, I think glurio's activity is consistent with a lazy townie. It's also consistent with scum. In newbie XXXV, glurio was lazy town and we wasted a vig shot on him.
Corazon on the other hand can't hide behind lazy. In fact the only reason he's alive right now is because of ONE person who believes him to be town. One uncontested cop claim is the only town tell I have on Corazon.
I especially don't like his day 2 voting. He claims he won't back off me until I provide explanations for his absurd accusations, but the he does back off me. Not because I provided satisfactory answers, but because his lynch wasn't getting traction.
He then parks his vote on warbaby and disappears an hour before lynch deadline, conveniently missing the final actions. And what reason does he give for this? He has to go to sleep because he has work. Suddenly my not-good-enough reason for low activity is good enough for him to miss an important vote deadline.
This is just one example of his hypocrisy, I've given others in my d2 case.
Let's forget about Sno's cop claim for now and look only at Corazon. Because:
1. Sno's claim is unverifiable and should be a null read at this point.
2. If Corazon is scum, Sno is the second scum by association, 100%
##Unvote: glurio
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On February 03 2013 02:19 cDgCorazon wrote:
Fine Cake, I shall rephrase.
He's trying to convince us he is not scum with an argument that, to me, does not compute. How could I possibly vote for Sn0 over him?
You completely miss the point.
Here's my biggest beef with you:
On February 03 2013 02:05 cakepie wrote:
Corazon, you've chosen to ignore everything I've said over the earlier part of D3.
Like these things, yah?:
+ Show Spoiler +On February 01 2013 16:48 cakepie wrote:Anyone else subscribing to "Sn0 is telling the truth" needs to justify their choice of two of three possible scum (and by extension, who of three is town). Corazon will at some point need to explain where he derives the bias against Glurio and Slayalot from. He's almost given me a free pass, a dangerous thing to do at MYLO. + Show Spoiler +On February 01 2013 12:48 cDgCorazon wrote:
I'm all for lynching either Glurio or Slayalot today. I want to see how both of them play out D3 before making a decision.
On February 02 2013 07:15 cakepie wrote:Guys, I want to emphasize that we cannot simply play today based solely on the reasoning that: "I strongly believe Sno's cop claim and his green checks, therefore we've already solved this game easily". Over reliance on blue powers, and thus slacking off on your own scumhunting, is a poor way to play and will not help you improve. [...] @ Cora, Acid: "Sn0 has my alignment correct" should be a null tell. Scum with a cop fakeclaim could also trivially supply correct alignments, because they already know. DO NOT use this as basis to support your belief that he is honest. [...] Basically, what I'm trying to get at, is that this statement: Show nested quote +On February 02 2013 00:47 Sn0_Man wrote:
DO YOU BELIEVE ME?
That question is the entirety of this game right now. BTW you is Acid/Cake/Cora. Slay/Glurio obviously won't believe me. That's not actually true at all. We all need to scumhunt for other supporting evidence against lynch targets, instead of simply banking on strong belief in a cop claim. On February 02 2013 07:37 cakepie wrote:
We have 26+ hours to work with here. The game may be solved from [Sn0's] perspective, but I don't see why the rest of us should not spend this available time to find other evidence that would help bolster our confidence that it's glurio being scum with his most likely partner being slayalot.
All you've given is this bloody weak sauce:
+ Show Spoiler +On February 02 2013 07:31 cDgCorazon wrote:Why I think Sn0's claim is real: Show nested quote +On February 02 2013 00:13 cDgCorazon wrote:
1) Lack of counter-claim (Mafia cop would not want to claim because lynching one of them gets one half of the scum team either killed that day or the next)
2) Lack of a roleblock claim (We've had two night cycles, I don't think anyone would have lied about being RB'd D2. If they were RB'd they would've said it at the beginning of D2, and Sn0 claimed towards end of D2.)
3)His check on me was correct (It's only confirming for me, but it's what solidifies my opinion.
Even Sn0 told you this was bad and wrong.
And:
+ Show Spoiler +On February 02 2013 16:11 cDgCorazon wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2013 07:35 Sn0_Man wrote:
3) I believe the logic is that if I'm scum, so are you. Reason being I cop-claimed for no reason except to save you. Well since I know I am town, I'm certain that you are Cop. I'm going to vote for Glurio because of all the arguments above (voting history, activity level) and the fact that his arguments aren't good enough to convince me that Sn0 is town (the emotional "Sn0scum" BS is ridiculously suspicious as well). ##Vote: GlurioA scum flip on Glurio would basically confirm everything about Sn0 and all of the webs interlinking with that (I'll save association cases for after the lynch). [...] this is basically locking in my vote.
You won't get a chance to do D4 association cases if we mess up and mislynch today.
A town flip on Glurio would basically end the game in a loss for town.
You haven't demonstrated enough due diligence with your D3 decision yet.
In fact, you're coming dangerously close to looking like:
On February 01 2013 04:00 cakepie wrote:sheep opinions that are already expressed by other players, and wagon their vote without justification.
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Fine, do you want to vote me off to confirm Sn0 as Cop? If you guys are so certain that I'm scum, do it.
If you all want to throw the game for the town, vote me out. I dare you.
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EPT
