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Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
On February 03 2013 05:47 cDgCorazon wrote: If they can't see that I'm town, then we all deserve to lose...it's their stupidity. You've done nothing this entire game that could even be remotely construed as town-motivated. We have a saying here: when you feel that everyone around you is an idiot, it's probably you who is the idiot instead. | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
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Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
On February 03 2013 05:59 cDgCorazon wrote: I'm just curious, on a scale of 1 to 10, how sure are you that I'm scum? 50/50 I just hope that you're scum because it would mean you're not pants-on-head retarded and I like to give people the benefit of the doubt. | ||
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Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
On February 03 2013 06:04 Acid~ wrote: You've done nothing this entire game that could even be remotely construed as town-motivated. Thats a pretty big statement. Pretty ad-hominem and tunnel-vision. Please evaluate glurio, then evaluate me, and see who you think is MORE LIKELY to be scum. Then choose. Choosing to lynch cora is choosing to lynch me (and a loss, but you can't know that 100%). | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
If I take the easy option, and simply believe Sn0, then obviously the scumteam is glurio and slayalot. However, if I don't believe Sn0, then he is clearly scum, and anyone else could be his scumbuddy. Corazon is the foremost candidate for that position, by the sheer amount of saving one another that went on between them. ----- The problem with a glurio + slayalot scumteam is that the case for that is hilariously weak. Here's what I said earlier in D3: On February 01 2013 11:40 cakepie wrote: I'm going to start with this and see where it takes us with regard to my two strongest scumreads. ##Vote: Slayalot ##FoS: glurio Reason: as well as voting patterns The funny thing is, this was the truth: my strongest scumreads rely on a bunch of lousy voting patterns and handwavy judgement of playstyle. That's really only slightly scummy. Acid nailed it on the head: On February 03 2013 02:37 Acid~ wrote: There's not enough activity from glurio to make a case. Bottom line is, I think glurio's activity is consistent with a lazy townie. It's also consistent with scum. Only a good faith belief in Sn0's cop claim can provide (conditional) strong support to the case -- conditional, because it depends on if you believe Sn0. I did mention that initially leaned towards: On February 01 2013 10:00 cakepie wrote: Sn0_Man: There is no way a scum Sn0 could safely claim cop when he did. I don't think we're looking at some complicated and daring scum gambit. This is more likely to be a true, goodwill attempt to prevent a Corazon mislynch. On February 02 2013 07:15 cakepie wrote: I'm not saying that I consider Sn0's claim to be a lie -- the claim is fairly strong. It serves as great backing evidence to go with my own reads. But I also left open this possibility: On February 02 2013 07:15 cakepie wrote: it is not 100% unassailable, And I have been doing my due diligence to go back in the thread to re-test my own belief that Sn0's cop claim is unsafe for scum, and is "too complicated" under occam's razor. Meanwhile, I've also been exhorting others to try to scumhunt further instead of relying on a set of claims alone. There are cases to be made -- but no one actually tried hard enough. Glurio made a half-assed attempt, and that's pretty much it. I left an opening for people to actually play, but it didn't happen. - Slayalot is not even a player at this point. - Glurio put in some weak sauce, and left to go party. - Sn0 won't do anything except bank on his cop claim. - Cora doesn't want to play along, just wanted to bank everything on Sn0, and then goes into martyrdom brinkmanship mode. - Acid is too frustrated to care any more. - FUCKING SHIT-FLINGING FEST ENSUES Now it is clear to me that if you want things done right, you'll have to do it yourself. Sn0 + Cora scumteam hypothesis narrative coming up, next post. Still drafting. Because I will leave no stone unturned. Sn0's claim is indeed everything that will swing this game one way or the other, and I am determined to weigh both possibilities carefully before we settle this. | ||
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Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
On February 03 2013 06:09 Sn0_Man wrote: Thats a pretty big statement. Pretty ad-hominem and tunnel-vision. Please evaluate glurio, then evaluate me, and see who you think is MORE LIKELY to be scum. Then choose. Choosing to lynch cora is choosing to lynch me (and a loss, but you can't know that 100%). First I want to see who/if I can get behind on a Cora lynch. Also, Can we get a vote count please? | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 03 2013 06:16 Acid~ wrote: First I want to see who/if I can get behind on a Cora lynch. Your best bet would be me, because sn0 won't do it, and we have no idea what is up with the other two. It won't work without at least one of them if cora unvotes himself. | ||
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
cDgCorazon (2) : cDgCorazon, Acid~ Slayalot (1) : cakepie glurio (1) : Sn0_Man, Sn0_Man (1) : glurio | ||
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Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
On February 03 2013 06:28 cDgCorazon wrote: Acid why are you voting for someone that you're only 50% sure is scum? Not very convincing. I'm done talking to you. Waiting on cakepie's theory to see if it matches my own. | ||
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
Immediately post-night 2, glurio comes out swinging because he knows he *has* to discredit me or he loses. He makes more in-depth posts than ever before and they are extremely tunnelled on me (admittedly mine are equally tunnelled on him). After basically blowing his cover (since his previous excuse was basically bad/lazy town), he retreats into hiding hoping the seeds of doubt he has sown blossom and grow. He has flung his shit and has no real content to provide so he resumes lurking. And over the course of this day, instead of clearing stuff up, the rest of town decides that it wants to lynch... Corazon? what is up here? There is no possible way from any perspective that corazon is the right lynch. However, cakepie's obsession with "playing the game" have resulted in more uncertainty and lack of clarity. If you choose to believe that glurio is just a lazy townie, then explain his outburst post-N2, especially how well he grasped my options as cop and how scum could abuse them to make me look scummy. He clearly had spent a ton of time thinking on it and working through the possibilities. Not really consisted with lazy town IMO, but very consistent with lurky scum. I don't know what else to say. There is no playing left for me. I have solved the game, provided as much info to you as possible, and now I await the jury's choice. If you wish to pressure corazon in an attempt to identify him as part of a me-him scumteam, then go ahead, but if that ends up being the case, then lynch me please, since I *must* be part of any scumteam with him on it. I want you guys to know who you are siding with when you make the lynch. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
This is what things look like to me through a Sn0+Cora scumteam hypothesis goggles. ========== Day 1 corazon fluff about confirmation bias and meta, and then listing lurkers http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17636349 brief warbaby vs acid happens. Sn0 asserts his belief that both warbaby and acid are trying to take control of town, rather than actually scumhunting http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17641802 warbaby vs Sn0 happens. corazon makes some useless side comments http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17639117 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17642031 and goes back to just listing lurkers http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17642563 and calling out the penis contest http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17643306 Sn0 votes, and leaves http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17646502 His second vote on SkaPunk makes the wagon credible and enables others to wagon on. Both scum and silly townie sheep can easily bandwagon. zare actually sounds like a voice of reason amidst the whole mess http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17644643 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17648807 Night 1 Sn0 soft busses Cora on setup details. Zare makes a case on Cora without relying on the setup error: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17653902 Glurio and and slayalot both cast some WIFOM suspicion toward warbaby. There is some bollocks going on about warbaby looks scummy by association with mocsta meta -- complete bollocks, I am amazed how that was even admissible to anyone. Zare actually speaks sense here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17655668 But Acid makes a late night case against warbaby. What would a Sn0+Cora scumteam do here? glurio and slayalot aren't very active or useful, they are not a threat, and can be manipulated. Acid could be painted as going apeshit all over warbaby, plus he was gone for a good chunk and did not vote. safe to keep around. AFK (later replaced by myself late in N1) was an unknown factor, could be left for later. Zare makes reasonable, sensible arguments. Warbaby also demonstrated that he is a highly active player who will engage and spar with anyone. Kill Zare. He is able to remain calm, and use sound reason. Why not warbaby? because Warbaby looks more likely to be influenceable, and it looks possible to drive a mislynch on him. Role Check Warbaby might have happened or not. Not too important. ========== Day 2 The nightkill fails. Was Zare saved by a doc, or saved by a JK? The day opens with warbaby vs acid. Corazon tries to sound reasonable, but then FoS into warbaby for continued tunnelling When warbaby tries to post reason for others, corazon paints it with emotional appeal: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17658510 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17658553 Sn0 is the first with the setup speculation: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17662395 warbaby's post here is telling in hindsight: On January 30 2013 02:04 warbaby wrote: I'd love to discuss what actually happened N1, which I see as a great win for town. Note that there is one variation of the setup that allows for both JK and Doc (if I'm not reading the wiki wrong here -- love to see our authority on math and statistics, Acid~, to contribute on this point, but he's probably won't bother responding to this post, assuming he ever reads it). If the blue is doc, should they claim? I don't think it was clairvoyant that nobody died N1 (and I think you sound like a sadscum by saying this), I think it was just damned lucky. Probably won't happen again, and there's a chance the Doc (if there is one) will be killed before they can do anything more useful. If the doc exists and claims, and scum kills them, we end up with a 100% confirmed town and a no kill on Night 1. Is this good for town? I'm not sure if this makes sense. I haven't put a lot of thought into reasons and possible results around town power role claims. "I made a lucky save. Does it make sense for me to make a claim?" If scumteam realized this, they would have suspected warbaby to be doc. (Or they might have already had a rolecop check) Warbaby makes a side comment about not believing in clairvoyance. Scumteam could read this as a confirmation that "I did not see clearly, I just made a lucky save" Sn0 latches on to the comment on clairvoyance as justification for his vote. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17663135 This is complete bullshit, of course. Zare convinces warbaby with calm reason to try making other cases. You can see why he would comply, since he had zare confirmed town. I appear and mention the fact that JK blocks result in a notification. This is news to Sn0. Scumteam now knows that they were not blocked by JK. He figures out the implications: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17665292 As Acid makes his reappearance, Corazon comes in to offer a polar choice: Lynch either WB or Acid. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17665711 At 26 hours to go, he just wants to mislynch either of the guys who are actively prying around. It is convenient that they tunnel one another. Continuing lack of JK claim or roleblocked claims increases confidence of scumteam that they know the setup http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17665775 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17665787 Acid vs Corazon happens. There is a lot of WIFOM. Zare starts casting some real suspicions against Corazon, backed by a strong read of hypocrisy from Corazon http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673093 Sn0 rushes to dismiss the possibility of a Corazon wagon http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673269 Zare also posts a case on warbaby. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673310 Sn0 likes this case much better! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673365 At the same time there is some suspicion cast lightly toward Zare: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673448 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17674187 Warbaby falls back to a lurker lynch. Gets goaded into making a very ill-advised softclaim. Sn0 presses him for a hard claim. Scum wants blue to out! Unfortunately there is no way out of it. Acid and zare are also pressing for the claim. Glurio's vote adds pressure since he actually looks like might get lynched. Warbay claims at January 31 2013 06:04. zare unvotes, but slaylot votes on. the four votes on warbaby are Acid, Sn0, glurio, Slayalot. Corazon refuses to move onto warbaby. He needs to stay off the wagon for now http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17676374 Sn0 backs him up: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17676429 But then there is actually some momentum toward a Corazon wagon. As momentum builds, Sn0 tries to save Cora again: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17676827 It gets to: warbaby (3): Corazon (3): Acid, zarepath, warbaby Corazon shits his pants. There are 8 players, he NEEDS to vote warbaby to bring it to 4, because he has no way of knowing what I would do. Acid points out that Sn0 has been crumbing Cora: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17677383 Except, Acid, those are not breadcrumbs at all. It is only a crumb if Sn0 used steganography in N1 to indicate that he intended to check Cora. This is what real crumbs look like: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=386911¤tpage=73#1460 What happens is that this presents an opening to Sn0 Cora scumteam -- they can try to risk a fakeclaim here to save Cora. It is actually a modersately safe claim, because they are fairly certain that there is no JK. They will risk a possible cop counterclaim, because no one has come out with a cop claim yet, despite the whole day. The bet is this: a cop would know that by claiming, there would be a confirmed doc+cop setup, the strongest setup possible. The game then becomes a simple follow-the cop. With D1+D2 mislynch, N1 nokill, and N2 doc kill, the cop would have 3 confirmed reads (2 from cop checks, one is Zare=town) in a 6 player game on D3. It would be easy! The lack of this makes it quite safe for Sn0 to cop claim. The problem is, he insists on not seeing the simple follow-the-cop for the win. Even if warbaby is scum with doc fakeclaim, we'd have dead cop with a town read on Cora, and a confirmed scum in warbaby.. also EZ-PZ. This is what makes Sn0's failure to switch off warbaby really scummy. Night 2 Cora finds himself in a bad position, so he throws shit at zare: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17679171 We all call him out for it. Sn0+cora worry that if Sn0 stays alive, he will get lynched because town won't believe in a situation that scum does not kill the cop claim. My posts and reasoning leaves them a way out of the situation -- but there does not look like there is enough controversy around Sn0. Only glurio threw some shit at Sn0. So, Cora tries stupid convoluted tricks to give plausibility to the scenario that Sn0 lives. The expected happens: we lose a confirmed town. But Zare points out one important thing On February 01 2013 10:00 zarepath wrote: If Sn0_Man is not killed, I really suggest that you look at his filter, and the thread leading up to his cop claim. He only cop claimed after Cora was under a lot of attack and Acid is the one who suggested that he was breadcrumbing and cop claiming before he actually cop claimed -- and his earlier posts make it seem as though he didn't know the setup blue possibilities despite bieng cop. His breadcrumbs aren't entirely justified. And his late post seems SUPER scummy. The thing is, I can totally see and understand a scum team realizing that if they don't do something, they're pretty much done for, and they ahve to take the 1-in-3 chance (closer to 1-in-2 because there was no evidence of a JK) to cop claim. It wasn't really meditated; Acid kind of just forced him into it (incidentally), and it was worth the risk. And like I already said a couple of times, those aren't even real breadcrumbs. ========== Day 3 Sn0 and Cora won't work with me, shit fest happens. ========== TL;DR: Zare is right about why Sn0's claim looks off. ##Unvote ##Vote: cdgCorazon | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
Explain your D2 and N2, and show us by other means why the scum are glurio and/or Slay. Sn0: Why should I vote you, when your death does not fully confirm Cora scum? I play to win. If cora flips scum, then you must be scum. The reverse is not true, in spite of the association between the two of you. Show us why your cop claim is actually credible, and walk us through your D2 through the eyes of a cop. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 03 2013 07:23 Sn0_Man wrote: Immediately post-night 2, glurio comes out swinging because he knows he *has* to discredit me or he loses. He makes more in-depth posts than ever before and they are extremely tunnelled on me (admittedly mine are equally tunnelled on him). After basically blowing his cover (since his previous excuse was basically bad/lazy town), he retreats into hiding hoping the seeds of doubt he has sown blossom and grow. He has flung his shit and has no real content to provide so he resumes lurking. And over the course of this day, instead of clearing stuff up, the rest of town decides that it wants to lynch... Corazon? what is up here? There is no possible way from any perspective that corazon is the right lynch. However, cakepie's obsession with "playing the game" have resulted in more uncertainty and lack of clarity. If you choose to believe that glurio is just a lazy townie, then explain his outburst post-N2, especially how well he grasped my options as cop and how scum could abuse them to make me look scummy. He clearly had spent a ton of time thinking on it and working through the possibilities. Not really consisted with lazy town IMO, but very consistent with lurky scum. See, this is the sort of thing I wanted sooner. On February 03 2013 07:23 Sn0_Man wrote: I don't know what else to say. There is no playing left for me. I have solved the game, provided as much info to you as possible, and now I await the jury's choice. The jury needs convincing. You have to bring other evidence besides a policeman's testimony. | ||
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
On February 03 2013 07:24 cakepie wrote: Okay, this is really long. This is what things look like to me through a Sn0+Cora scumteam hypothesis goggles. + Show Spoiler + ========== Day 1 corazon fluff about confirmation bias and meta, and then listing lurkers http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17636349 brief warbaby vs acid happens. Sn0 asserts his belief that both warbaby and acid are trying to take control of town, rather than actually scumhunting http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17641802 warbaby vs Sn0 happens. corazon makes some useless side comments http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17639117 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17642031 and goes back to just listing lurkers http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17642563 and calling out the penis contest http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17643306 Sn0 votes, and leaves http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17646502 His second vote on SkaPunk makes the wagon credible and enables others to wagon on. Both scum and silly townie sheep can easily bandwagon. zare actually sounds like a voice of reason amidst the whole mess http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17644643 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17648807 Night 1 Sn0 soft busses Cora on setup details. Zare makes a case on Cora without relying on the setup error: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17653902 Glurio and and slayalot both cast some WIFOM suspicion toward warbaby. There is some bollocks going on about warbaby looks scummy by association with mocsta meta -- complete bollocks, I am amazed how that was even admissible to anyone. Zare actually speaks sense here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17655668 But Acid makes a late night case against warbaby. What would a Sn0+Cora scumteam do here? glurio and slayalot aren't very active or useful, they are not a threat, and can be manipulated. Acid could be painted as going apeshit all over warbaby, plus he was gone for a good chunk and did not vote. safe to keep around. AFK (later replaced by myself late in N1) was an unknown factor, could be left for later. Zare makes reasonable, sensible arguments. Warbaby also demonstrated that he is a highly active player who will engage and spar with anyone. Kill Zare. He is able to remain calm, and use sound reason. Why not warbaby? because Warbaby looks more likely to be influenceable, and it looks possible to drive a mislynch on him. Role Check Warbaby might have happened or not. Not too important. ========== Day 2 The nightkill fails. Was Zare saved by a doc, or saved by a JK? The day opens with warbaby vs acid. Corazon tries to sound reasonable, but then FoS into warbaby for continued tunnelling When warbaby tries to post reason for others, corazon paints it with emotional appeal: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17658510 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17658553 Sn0 is the first with the setup speculation: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17662395 warbaby's post here is telling in hindsight: On January 30 2013 02:04 warbaby wrote: I'd love to discuss what actually happened N1, which I see as a great win for town. Note that there is one variation of the setup that allows for both JK and Doc (if I'm not reading the wiki wrong here -- love to see our authority on math and statistics, Acid~, to contribute on this point, but he's probably won't bother responding to this post, assuming he ever reads it). If the blue is doc, should they claim? I don't think it was clairvoyant that nobody died N1 (and I think you sound like a sadscum by saying this), I think it was just damned lucky. Probably won't happen again, and there's a chance the Doc (if there is one) will be killed before they can do anything more useful. If the doc exists and claims, and scum kills them, we end up with a 100% confirmed town and a no kill on Night 1. Is this good for town? I'm not sure if this makes sense. I haven't put a lot of thought into reasons and possible results around town power role claims. "I made a lucky save. Does it make sense for me to make a claim?" If scumteam realized this, they would have suspected warbaby to be doc. (Or they might have already had a rolecop check) Warbaby makes a side comment about not believing in clairvoyance. Scumteam could read this as a confirmation that "I did not see clearly, I just made a lucky save" Sn0 latches on to the comment on clairvoyance as justification for his vote. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17663135 This is complete bullshit, of course. Zare convinces warbaby with calm reason to try making other cases. You can see why he would comply, since he had zare confirmed town. I appear and mention the fact that JK blocks result in a notification. This is news to Sn0. Scumteam now knows that they were not blocked by JK. He figures out the implications: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17665292 As Acid makes his reappearance, Corazon comes in to offer a polar choice: Lynch either WB or Acid. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17665711 At 26 hours to go, he just wants to mislynch either of the guys who are actively prying around. It is convenient that they tunnel one another. Continuing lack of JK claim or roleblocked claims increases confidence of scumteam that they know the setup http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17665775 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17665787 Acid vs Corazon happens. There is a lot of WIFOM. Zare starts casting some real suspicions against Corazon, backed by a strong read of hypocrisy from Corazon http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673093 Sn0 rushes to dismiss the possibility of a Corazon wagon http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673269 Zare also posts a case on warbaby. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673310 Sn0 likes this case much better! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673365 At the same time there is some suspicion cast lightly toward Zare: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673448 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17674187 Warbaby falls back to a lurker lynch. Gets goaded into making a very ill-advised softclaim. Sn0 presses him for a hard claim. Scum wants blue to out! Unfortunately there is no way out of it. Acid and zare are also pressing for the claim. Glurio's vote adds pressure since he actually looks like might get lynched. Warbay claims at January 31 2013 06:04. zare unvotes, but slaylot votes on. the four votes on warbaby are Acid, Sn0, glurio, Slayalot. Corazon refuses to move onto warbaby. He needs to stay off the wagon for now http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17676374 Sn0 backs him up: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17676429 But then there is actually some momentum toward a Corazon wagon. As momentum builds, Sn0 tries to save Cora again: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17676827 It gets to: warbaby (3): Corazon (3): Acid, zarepath, warbaby Corazon shits his pants. There are 8 players, he NEEDS to vote warbaby to bring it to 4, because he has no way of knowing what I would do. Acid points out that Sn0 has been crumbing Cora: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17677383 Except, Acid, those are not breadcrumbs at all. It is only a crumb if Sn0 used steganography in N1 to indicate that he intended to check Cora. This is what real crumbs look like: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=386911¤tpage=73#1460 What happens is that this presents an opening to Sn0 Cora scumteam -- they can try to risk a fakeclaim here to save Cora. It is actually a modersately safe claim, because they are fairly certain that there is no JK. They will risk a possible cop counterclaim, because no one has come out with a cop claim yet, despite the whole day. The bet is this: a cop would know that by claiming, there would be a confirmed doc+cop setup, the strongest setup possible. The game then becomes a simple follow-the cop. With D1+D2 mislynch, N1 nokill, and N2 doc kill, the cop would have 3 confirmed reads (2 from cop checks, one is Zare=town) in a 6 player game on D3. It would be easy! The lack of this makes it quite safe for Sn0 to cop claim. The problem is, he insists on not seeing the simple follow-the-cop for the win. Even if warbaby is scum with doc fakeclaim, we'd have dead cop with a town read on Cora, and a confirmed scum in warbaby.. also EZ-PZ. This is what makes Sn0's failure to switch off warbaby really scummy. Night 2 Cora finds himself in a bad position, so he throws shit at zare: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17679171 We all call him out for it. Sn0+cora worry that if Sn0 stays alive, he will get lynched because town won't believe in a situation that scum does not kill the cop claim. My posts and reasoning leaves them a way out of the situation -- but there does not look like there is enough controversy around Sn0. Only glurio threw some shit at Sn0. So, Cora tries stupid convoluted tricks to give plausibility to the scenario that Sn0 lives. The expected happens: we lose a confirmed town. But Zare points out one important thing On February 01 2013 10:00 zarepath wrote: If Sn0_Man is not killed, I really suggest that you look at his filter, and the thread leading up to his cop claim. He only cop claimed after Cora was under a lot of attack and Acid is the one who suggested that he was breadcrumbing and cop claiming before he actually cop claimed -- and his earlier posts make it seem as though he didn't know the setup blue possibilities despite bieng cop. His breadcrumbs aren't entirely justified. And his late post seems SUPER scummy. The thing is, I can totally see and understand a scum team realizing that if they don't do something, they're pretty much done for, and they ahve to take the 1-in-3 chance (closer to 1-in-2 because there was no evidence of a JK) to cop claim. It wasn't really meditated; Acid kind of just forced him into it (incidentally), and it was worth the risk. And like I already said a couple of times, those aren't even real breadcrumbs. ========== Day 3 Sn0 and Cora won't work with me, shit fest happens. ========== TL;DR: Zare is right about why Sn0's claim looks off. ##Unvote ##Vote: cdgCorazon Read my post above please. Beyond that, I suppose you want some justification of pre-Day2 lynch? I was plenty sure that warbaby was scum, so I had no interest in checking him. Corazon also looked scummy, but I really wasn't sure. I wanted some clarity. The town check surprised me, but I left him alone from there. I still thought he was playing for scum, although he clearly was town. At least he was playing. My vote on warbaby wasn't "justified" by warbaby's clairvoyance comments, it was justified well previously. I had merely left out the actual voting part, so I threw it in there. I still maintain that warbaby was the scummiest player around that was actually playing, and that my vote was legit. The fact that I wished to change it (and failed) is a bit awkward but I have said before that I think we made the right lynch that day. It solved the game. The rest of the game is just 5 townies fighting amongst themselves while 2 scum laugh their asses off in the QT. The other 2 were utter AFK's (skapunk, and your predecessor). If you don't think everybody was hilariously paranoid and wrong, I don't know what is up, but I will point out that it was YOU YOURSELF WHO SAID: On February 01 2013 04:00 cakepie wrote: Look at who among you are willing to come out and make controversial statements and possibly offend people. And look at who is simply content to safely cast weak suspicions all over the place without commitment, sheep opinions that are already expressed by other players, and wagon their vote without justification. And if glurio/slay don't fit that way better than me (and cora I guess?) then we deserve to lose. | ||
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
On February 03 2013 07:35 cakepie wrote: Sn0: Why should I vote you, when your death does not fully confirm Cora scum? I play to win. If cora flips scum, then you must be scum. The reverse is not true, in spite of the association between the two of you. Show us why your cop claim is actually credible, and walk us through your D2 through the eyes of a cop. B-B-B-Bullshit. We already covered this. The scumteam is EITHER glurio +1 OR me +1. Cora, to be scum, has to be MY scumbuddy. Therefore, by lynching him you claim to know a full scumteam. By lynching me, you allow yourself an extra day of scumhunting to nail cora (or any other of my hypothetical scumbuddies, you aren't locked in on that choice). You have used similar logic on me already today. Hence my request: ME OR GLURIO I honestly believe that the easiest way for me to influence town towards the right lynch is to force them into THIS PARTICULAR DECISION, me or glurio. While basically any decision is equivalent (slay vs cora, glurio vs cora, etc), this is the one that I believe is the most likely for town to make correctly. | ||
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
On February 03 2013 07:40 cakepie wrote: See, this is the sort of thing I wanted sooner. I'm pretty sure I made these arguments sooner. On February 03 2013 07:40 cakepie wrote: The jury needs convincing. You have to bring other evidence besides a policeman's testimony. Oh really? Glurio runs up and screams "SNO IS SCUM GUYS", uses red text, then disappears. I make reasoned posts and lay the game out for you so that it is as simple as humanly possible. Good thing we wish to ignore the fuck out of me and just believe glurio. You are really pissing me off. | ||
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
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