EPTMasons: do not counter claim Marv. A miller is just as likely if we have masons or not.
Djo, the fuck are you thinking?
Normal Mini Mafia IV - Page 15
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
Masons: do not counter claim Marv. A miller is just as likely if we have masons or not. Djo, the fuck are you thinking? | ||
|
iamperfection
United States9634 Posts
| ||
|
VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
| ||
|
xsksc
United Kingdom1044 Posts
I don't think there's a problem with announcing you'll be reading someone's game. Even if you think it's unnecessary, would you say it's a "scummy" thing to announce? Vivax himself does it the very next post. Are you equally suspicious of him? | ||
|
Djodref
France3332 Posts
On January 26 2013 11:19 Promethelax wrote: Just checking in from work since things are slow. Masons: do not counter claim Marv. A miller is just as likely if we have masons or not. Djo, the fuck are you thinking? lol, do you really want me to start to speculate about the setup ? The bolded part in your post is just plain wrong. In a classic C9++ game, the probability to have a mason pair and a miller is of 2.3%. I did the math here in the pregame. So, yeah, you can "soft" counter-claim a miller claim with a mason claim. + Show Spoiler [BEWARE, math incoming] + On January 24 2013 02:13 Djodref wrote: Two millers are usually not possible, and you have one miller when you have exactly one M or exactly 3 Ms in the setup. So, let's compute the probability to have exactly one M in the 7 letters defining the setup. M has a probability of 1/10 to be rolled. Let's have X for any letter not being M, and X has a probability of 9/10 to be rolled. MXXXXXX XMXXXXX XXMXXXX XXXMXXX Here you have all the setups with exactly one mason, each of them with a probability of (9/10)^6*(1/10) XXXXMXX XXXXXMX XXXXXXM There are 7 such setups like this. The final probability to have exactly one M is 7*(9/10)^6*(1/10)=0.3720087 The probability is so roughly of 37% So then you should add the probability to have exactly 3 Ms in the 7 letters defining the setup. You have (7*6*5)/(3*2) arrangements of 3 Ms into the 7 letters, that is 35 arrangements. Each arrangement has a probability of (9/10)^4*(1/10)^3 so the probability to have exactly 3 Ms is roughly of 2.3% ?? That should make a ~39.5% probability to have a miller in the classic C9++ setup I guess. | ||
|
iamperfection
United States9634 Posts
On January 26 2013 11:25 VisceraEyes wrote: iamp do you have any opinions on what's going on or do you plan to uselessly ask people if "they're serious" all game? Well if i told you how i think he would answer with regards to his alignment it would kind of defeat the purpose. | ||
|
Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On January 26 2013 09:23 xsksc wrote: Alright. I'd appreciate if you do the same for me, you're one of the players in this game I'm not familiar with. My reads are usually pretty good, I've never been lynched and I'd like to think people can identify my town play easily enough. My weakness would probably be not pushing my reads hard enough/getting people on-board with me. It's 2 lines long, I'm not sure what world that would qualify as lengthy in... Iamperfection said Proms post was scummy, I said I don't see a scum motive behind it, pointless post =/= scum post. Fairly simple. Replying to this before I forget, at one time I thought my strength lay in being obviously townie and not in scum hunting. Over my last few games I think that has been shifting. I have been mislynched twice in a row and caught scum twice I. A row (we are ignoring lviii). I can pretty well assure you that Marv and probably Hapa will be able to read me as town. As to the other players in this game, most know me and have played with me before but I'm less sure that they'll be able to read me well. | ||
|
Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On January 26 2013 11:20 iamperfection wrote: your vote on vivax serious prom? As serious as it can be this early. That is still the scummiest thing in the thread. | ||
|
VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
| ||
|
Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On January 26 2013 11:27 Djodref wrote: lol, do you really want me to start to speculate about the setup ? The bolded part in your post is just plain wrong. In a classic C9++ game, the probability to have a mason pair and a miller is of 2.3%. I did the math here in the pregame. So, yeah, you can "soft" counter-claim a miller claim with a mason claim. + Show Spoiler [BEWARE, math incoming] + On January 24 2013 02:13 Djodref wrote: Two millers are usually not possible, and you have one miller when you have exactly one M or exactly 3 Ms in the setup. So, let's compute the probability to have exactly one M in the 7 letters defining the setup. M has a probability of 1/10 to be rolled. Let's have X for any letter not being M, and X has a probability of 9/10 to be rolled. MXXXXXX XMXXXXX XXMXXXX XXXMXXX Here you have all the setups with exactly one mason, each of them with a probability of (9/10)^6*(1/10) XXXXMXX XXXXXMX XXXXXXM There are 7 such setups like this. The final probability to have exactly one M is 7*(9/10)^6*(1/10)=0.3720087 The probability is so roughly of 37% So then you should add the probability to have exactly 3 Ms in the 7 letters defining the setup. You have (7*6*5)/(3*2) arrangements of 3 Ms into the 7 letters, that is 35 arrangements. Each arrangement has a probability of (9/10)^4*(1/10)^3 so the probability to have exactly 3 Ms is roughly of 2.3% ?? That should make a ~39.5% probability to have a miller in the classic C9++ setup I guess. But listen, probability of the set up existing are not the same as ability to counter claim. It's about math (statistics) and I don't really want to get into it but you are just as likely to have a miller in a set up with or without masons. | ||
|
iamperfection
United States9634 Posts
On January 26 2013 11:30 VisceraEyes wrote: I didn't ask you to explain anything. I asked if you were going to do anything but ask people if they're serious about things they post or not. guess you will just have to wait and see. you going to ask pointless questions all game? | ||
|
Djodref
France3332 Posts
On January 26 2013 11:25 xsksc wrote: Hey djo, regarding the usage of odd, well, I don't really feel inclined to spend the evening repeating myself so you can read my replies to Hapa. I don't think there's a problem with announcing you'll be reading someone's game. Even if you think it's unnecessary, would you say it's a "scummy" thing to announce? Vivax himself does it the very next post. Are you equally suspicious of him? I think it's slightly scummy to announce it. Also it's a bad move when you re town, because scum can adapt his meta in the meantime. So it's better to check it first by yourself anyway. I just picked up the post that rubbed me the wrong way when I was catching up with the game. Vivax apparently tried to check your profile before asking you the question, so the situation is different. Also Vivax is starting this game in a very attention-whorey way, so I don't think I should worry about him yet. | ||
|
VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
 | ||
|
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On January 26 2013 11:05 xsksc wrote: I said I don't see a good reason for him to be scum. I don't think someone making a bad case on me warrants me to turn around and label them scum, if there's nothing else in their filter to indicate so. His case lacked logic, that's all, and I prefer to actually do something constructive day one than defend myself against it. Still leaning town on him. You may be more familiar with him, what do you think? Standard Vivax? Ignore the "standard Vivax" stuff. What would you think of his play independent of his history? | ||
|
Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
| ||
|
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On January 26 2013 11:29 Promethelax wrote: Replying to this before I forget, at one time I thought my strength lay in being obviously townie and not in scum hunting. Over my last few games I think that has been shifting. I have been mislynched twice in a row and caught scum twice I. A row (we are ignoring lviii). I can pretty well assure you that Marv and probably Hapa will be able to read me as town. As to the other players in this game, most know me and have played with me before but I'm less sure that they'll be able to read me well. Huh? How do you know that I'm town? | ||
|
VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
| ||
|
iamperfection
United States9634 Posts
they don't exist remember. | ||
|
Djodref
France3332 Posts
On January 26 2013 11:32 Promethelax wrote: But listen, probability of the set up existing are not the same as ability to counter claim. It's about math (statistics) and I don't really want to get into it but you are just as likely to have a miller in a set up with or without masons. I guess you are talking about conditional probabilities. From the mason point of view. I think you are right, my bad. | ||
|
VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
| ||
| ||
