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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
On December 30 2012 04:56 Chromatically wrote: Is there a particular reason that you ignored this post, Corazon? After you presented your first case, you said that it had satisfied your accusations. EBWOP: This was the message I was answering. | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
Plus if I said right now that I think FC is scum, I would lose all of my credibility because I've been pursuing Orange since the beginning of Day 2. | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
On December 30 2012 02:00 cakepie wrote: 2. Implicit in 1 scum/1 town is that there is one more scum hiding among the remaining five besides orange/FC. So, qualified scumhunt, gogogo. (Please clearly indicate that you are working on 1 scum/1 town assumption) You'll see who I think is the other scum in that post. | ||
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
On December 30 2012 02:00 cakepie wrote: 2. Implicit in 1 scum/1 town is that there is one more scum hiding among the remaining five besides orange/FC. So, qualified scumhunt, gogogo. (Please clearly indicate that you are working on 1 scum/1 town assumption) I guess I will be the first one to step up with this. These are my reads based off of the 1 town/1 scum hypothesis (which I’m calling the 1-1 theory). I was going to put everyone’s posts on the two suspects in here, but after 15-16 pages on word on all of my posts towards the two, I’ve decided to cut out the fluff. If OrangeRemi is town, and FC is scum: Sylencia (Voting History: Corazon, OE, Kickstart, and OrangeRemi)) Posts dealing with FC: 8 Posts dealing with Orange: 4 Analysis: His voting history is that of a sheep. The only trains he has not sheeped on were the Spag train and the Shz train. His initial reads on FC (before FC was under pressure) are very weak, and on the middle of the fence. However, once FC started to come under fire, his scum reads of FC began to surface, but only when FC was the flavor of the month. However, his reads of Orange have been scum for a bit longer, and his current vote is on Orange. However, Orange is his third highest scum read. That does not make much sense. His overall effort has been sub-par, and his sheeping tendencies and reluctancy to come into the spotlight for the first two days has me very suspicious. I know I said he was starting to look town to me, but with the introduction of the 1-1 theory has me more suspicious of his true intentions. He was pretending to be aloof of FC’s lack of participation and scummy actions, and is voting for Orange (even though he claimed Orange as his 3rd strongest scum read) has me suspicious that he decided to bus Kick and distance himself from FC so he could escape suspicion when (hypothetically) FC flips scum. I’m going to have to go with scum in this hypothetical situation for these reasons. Myself(Voting History: Aqua, Threesr, No-Lynch, Threesr (2), Orangeremi, Shz, Orangeremi (2), No-Lynch (2), OE, Kickstart, Orangeremi (3), Kickstart (2), Orangeremi (4)) Posts dealing with FC: 10 Posts dealing with Orange: 39 Analysis: Well basically, my voting history has been all over the place. I’ve voted for 6 players, some multiple times, and I’ve voted for a no-lynch twice. I feel like I have contributed to the scumhunt, and I do truly believe that Orange is scum. However, I do not believe that I should be lynched in case Orange (hypothetically) flips town, and the 1-1 theory is correct. If that was the case, we should have lynched Chrom and Aqua for mislynching townies. I’m not attacking Orange to defend FC, I believe that they both have had scummy behaviors over the course of the game, but I believe that Orange has behaved just slightly more scummy than FC. I have more confidence in Orange being scum, but if he flips town I should be scrutinized for it, but not lynched. Chromatically(Voting History: Corazon, FatChunk, Spag, OE, Shz, OE(2), FatChunk(2), Shz (2), Orangeremi, FatChunk (3)) Posts dealing with FC: Somewhere around 30 (lost count, couldn’t be bothered to start over) Posts dealing with Orange: 27 Analysis: I think Chrom is town no matter what happens with these flips. While I disagree with his Spag vote (but I disagreed with everyone’s Spag vote), he has not and should not have been scrutinized too hard for his lynch on OE. It sounds like I’m saying this just because I voted for OE too, but OE played like scum, and he should have played better if he wanted to prove he was town. The only thing that has me curious is why he is so quick to agree with the 1-1 theory if he has implicated both Orange and FC as scum. I thought he would be trying to debuff the 1-1 theory. However, I think he is town no matter what. Cakepie(Voting History: Orangeremi, Spag, Kickstart, OE, Kickstart(2), FatChunk, Chromatically) Posts dealing with FC: 18 Posts dealing with Orange: 32 Analysis Like Chrom, I feel like Cake is town no matter what the flips are. His play has been as scum-free as possible. He has accused both players equally, and given them all the room in the world to defend themselves (even though the two haven’t taken it). (More on Shz later) [B]Other possibility: If OrangeRemi is scum and FatChunk is town: Sylencia In this scenario, I’m still suspicious of Sylencia. The fact that his initial reads on FC are weak, plus the fact that he’s voting Orange even though Orange is supposedly his 3rd strongest read, has me very suspicious. In this scenario, he would be bussing Orange and defending FatChunk, so if town votes Orange off, and then votes another town off, he can convince FC that he is not scum and to vote for whoever else is left (because in that case there would be 3 people left, 1 scum and 2 town) in order to win the game. He is most suspicious person out of everyone besides FC and Orange. Myself If Orange is scum, then I hope I will be cemented as solid townie in everyone else’s eyes. I would then probably be the most likely target for a nightkill. Cakepie & Chrom I’ve already said that they’re town no matter how this 1-1 theory goes. Now, you might be asking, “Hey Corazon, didn’t you forget Shz?”. Well, I have another theory for Shz. Let’s keep with the assumption that the 1-1 theory is true. Wasn’t Shz cleared under the suspicion that FC and Orange are a scumteam? If the 1-1 theory is true, that means 2 mafia and 2 town were on the Shz lynch train. Here is my hypothesis, still assuming the 1-1 theory as true: -Mafia thought that Shz was the most likely to go out, so they wanted the kick train to keep on going so Shz would be saved. -Kick told Mafia that his RL stuff (or whatever reason he was lurking for) was all cleared up. -Mafia agreed that if pressure was going to go back onto Shz, they would agree to bus Shz instead of sit around and let kick get lynched. -They thought that Kick would be able to turn it around and convince town that he was scum (because he was a vocal player in his last Mafia game), and that Kick bussing Shz would allow kick to get some brownie points with the town and work his way back to not being suspected. -That’s why Orange/FC(one scum, the other lazy sheep) and Kick did not vote for Shz until Chrom initiated the wagon, and the late votes were because Chrom started the wagon so late. -Shz obviously would not vote for himself because that would make it seem really obvious that he was being bussed. -However, they did not get enough votes, and kick got lynched. Shz’s initial attacks on Kick and FC are kind of weak, and are in reality only because Kick and FC were the flavors of the month at the time of him accusing them. He’s suggesting the 1-1 theory because he knows that if he busses FC and proves that Orange is town, he could gain so much brownie points with the town for lynching two mafia that he would never be seen as a scum until the very end. That’s why he failed to conceive that Orange could be scum and that FC could be town. [B]On December 30 2012 01:43 shz wrote: Wait a minute. I didn't look at Orange's play if he was scum and FC was town. Then the vote would make a lot of more sense. The Aqua thing is still strange, but if scum was really that afraid of Aqua, might be better to kill him off... Dammit. This isn't as clear as it seems. I really think we should look into the Kick/FC or Orange/Shz scumteam. TL;DR: I think that Syl is possible scum no matter who is town and who is scum. I also think that Shz is an outside chance of being scum, but a lot of things need to come together for it to work. Chrom and Cake are definite townies to me no matter how the flips go. I hope you guys get some value out of this, and I’ll be back in a while to see how you guys feel about this. | ||
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
Also, when I voted Orange, I was still under the impression I was voting for FC next. There would be no town image projected to him if I was to vote him right after, right? This was before the 1-1 theory came about, and honestly, I'm not exactly sold on the 1-1 theory yet either. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 30 2012 04:32 FatChunk wrote: Quick Q to orange: who is your 3rd scumread after myself? If you are town you should have a good idea. Now, being in my shoes, I am telling you that there is one more scum out there besides orangeremi. I know this isnt too helpful but please consider sylencia. And what are your reads apart from orangeremi and sylencia? We can grant that you were lazy and posted with very low frequency, but if you are town and care enough about winning you should be more concerned right now, and step up your play a bit. I'm not asking you to play with mocsta-exuberance or write super long posts like some of mine, but you'll need to give more reads and build better justification for your cases -- I can understand if you feel that writing more on orange would be beating a dead horse, but what of syl? Play to win. This means you play your best to help your team win while you are alive and in the game. Right now, assuming you are still playing to win, I can explain your play better with a scum hypothesis than a town hypothesis. I'm going to need more convincing before I will consider a Syl case stronger than a FC case. ----- @Sylencia you need to get in here and respond to Corazon [edit before post] oh good, you're here. | ||
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
On December 30 2012 12:20 Sylencia wrote: Corazon: The reads I had changed. If you looked after the post where I said that Orange was my third, he decided to post and it looked like a very scummy post to me. Honestly, it looked like a desperate play from my perspective. That is why I voted for him at the start of the day. Also, when I voted Orange, I was still under the impression I was voting for FC next. There would be no town image projected to him if I was to vote him right after, right? This was before the 1-1 theory came about, and honestly, I'm not exactly sold on the 1-1 theory yet either. Well you shouldn't see it as a "OMG lets kill Syl right now" sort of accusation. We need to figure out if the 1-1 theory is true. That's what I believe today's vote is all about proving the 1-1 theory. Remember, this is all hypothetical. There's a chance the 1-1 theory is wrong, and that FC/Orange have some master plan or do not know what they are doing. If the 1-1 theory is true, then someone else has to be scum. I just believe that you've flown under the radar a bit too much this game. | ||
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
On December 30 2012 12:47 Sylencia wrote: How does today's vote prove or disprove the 1-1 theory? In fact, isn't it detrimental to us if we prove the 1-1 theory by flipping a town? If that happens, we're down to 3-2 on Day 5, and the chances that we survive that are quite slim. Naturally, if it so happens to be we prove this theory, then so be it, but shouldn't we concentrate on who is scum between them? (Scum flip neither proves or disproves the 1-1 theory) You're right. It doesn't. However, I agree with you that Orange is more scummy than FC still. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 30 2012 04:32 FatChunk wrote: Now, being in my shoes, I am telling you that there is one more scum out there besides orangeremi. I know this isnt too helpful but please consider sylencia. Actually, it is clear that you very strongly believe that orangeremi is scum, even if your justification is minimal. Care back up your strongest scumread with your vote? | ||
shz
Germany2686 Posts
I don't get why you are saying that I forgot to check the theory against Orange scum/FC town as scum tell. It was a honest mistake which I corrected decently fast. It is very hard to proof 1-1 if we don't lynch both, what would mean that we are either wrong and killed 2 towns or 2 scum, or we are correct and kill 1 scum, 1 town. Which is still one town down. So the odds are against us. The best thing would be to kill oft one, and then figure out how to find the probably last mafia (if the lynch flips scum). If the lynch flips town, we can be pretty sure that the other is scum at least. | ||
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
@Shz: Seeing as I almost got lynched for something similar, I don't think we should throw it off the table. | ||
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
On December 30 2012 08:37 cDgCorazon wrote: I really think we should look into the Kick/FC or Orange/Shz scumteam. EBWOP: I really think we should look into the Kick/(FC or Orange)/Shz scumteam. Edited for clarification. | ||
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shz
Germany2686 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
My putting out the 1-1 theory has two key aims: - provides a failsafe in case orange/FC scumteam is a horrible mistake. It is pretty much a last chance for one or even both of them, if town, to step up and prevent this game from being basically lost by a mislynch on themselves. - it keeps the discussion going. The lessons of D2 are ever in my mind, and in D3 I did not manage to move the discussion despite my questioning. Let's be honest, we caught a lucky break from Kickstart's play. Sure both aqua and I explicitly said to push orange, then FC -- but I will not allow us to all vote orange and twiddle our thumbs for 48 hours! | ||
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shz
Germany2686 Posts
We can't proof 1-1 without lynching town. | ||
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shz
Germany2686 Posts
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
On December 30 2012 13:21 cakepie wrote: @corazon, shz My putting out the 1-1 theory has two key aims: - provides a failsafe in case orange/FC scumteam is a horrible mistake. It is pretty much a last chance for one or even both of them, if town, to step up and prevent this game from being basically lost by a mislynch on themselves. - it keeps the discussion going. The lessons of D2 are ever in my mind, and in D3 I did not manage to move the discussion despite my questioning. Let's be honest, we caught a lucky break from Kickstart's play. Sure both aqua and I explicitly said to push orange, then FC -- but I will not allow us to all vote orange and twiddle our thumbs for 48 hours! I kind of felt like the 1-1 theory seemed to be true. I honestly thought that we were going with it. I think the reason we have to take the 1-1 theory is that to figure it out 100% would basically mean either winning the game, or having a good chance of losing the game. | ||
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