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Oh, before I go--
Shz is here yah?
@shz
You were trying to figure out if Kick and/or Orange is scum, before you eventually settled on the wagon for Kick, with:
I'm tired to be accused of anything no matter how or who I vote.
I'm sure we're at least willing to listen to and consider what you have to say, after the failed voteswitch on you.
Come, what are your thoughts now? What are your reads now?
What do you think of what Aquanim had to say? What about my predawn post?
You had questions on my late D3. Are you satisfied with my explanation, or is there something you want elaborated?
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On December 29 2012 09:12 cDgCorazon wrote:GG Aqua. Show nested quote +On December 29 2012 08:44 Chromatically wrote:
I don't think that it would be a stupid move for scumteam to switch. If it had worked, with one more person switching, town would be in a very bad position. It would be 4-3, and the sheeping townie would be an easy mislynch to win the game. They went for it, it didn't work. So you're basically saying that Orange and FC are both scum, and that you switching was not part of this scum move? ...
I'm addressing cakepie's point that the whole scumteam switching is too good to be true. I'm demonstrating why it would have been a good idea for the whole scumteam to switch.
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Might as well get this started:
##Vote: Orangeremi
No scumread on shz all game, had a scumread on Kick all game, but switches to shz anyway with no reasoning. Also useless all game, etc, etc.
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Yeah, I think this is the right way to go.
##Vote: Orangeremi
If you think I don't have a reason for this, you need to pay attention to the game.
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But also,
FoS: FatChunk
Just as a formality. Once again, if you don't think I have a reason for this, pay attention to the game.
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Orange's actions during D3/N3 have led me to believe he is scum, I'm not sure if last night was some sort of threat or just foretelling of what is to come, but Orange if you are scum you played the last cycle pretty badly 
##Vote Orangeremi
Anyone need more info from me, go ahead and shoot.
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Just to be clear, syl, you were not roleblocked?
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On December 29 2012 08:57 Chromatically wrote:
My advice is to sheep Aqua.
Chrom, you are terrible for suggesting this, and had better have a good explanation for it.
We're far from home and dry yet.
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There's literally no way a scum would say that, right?
Aqua has been the farthest thing from scum the whole game.
In all honesty, that was sandwiched in between two huge posts. I didn't notice until cake pulled it out.
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Germany2687 Posts
Okay. So I think there a few problems with the Orange/FC scum-team theory which I would like to solve before voting.
Overall the cases made against both (and espc. against Orange) are really good and make sense, but some plays I can't really make sense out of (if both are scum).
Assuming Orange/FC are scum:
Orange:
- Why does he vote for FC two times in this game? (The first vote didn't matter because the wagon would not be build anyway, but why the second time? After Orange's vote it was Kick 3:3 FC, very dangerous territory.)
- Why does he suggests Aqua should have been NK'd already and then NK him? (Isn't this basically saying "Aqua is right, I'm scum, lynch me?")
Considering the second point, could it be possible to that scum killed Aqua so we would miss-lynch Orange becaus of that?
FC:
- He gave the fourth vote to Kick, basically sealing the deal, he could not have know that there was a possibility that I get lynched.
- He was the last one who switched and it did not matter at all as it was a tie, which meant Kick would be lynched. So if he is scum, why switch when it's over for your buddy but you can at least gain town-cred
Could someone please try to debunk these arguments? Did I miss something
@cakepie:
I think I get what you were trying to do.
Also, when would you suggest role-claims?
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Germany2687 Posts
I was not blocked btw.
I still think the only RB I got was from Mocsta N1.
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On December 29 2012 14:20 cakepie wrote:
Just to be clear, syl, you were not roleblocked?
Actually I was, didn't realise I had the PM.
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Okay, so N3: shz was not roleblocked, but syl was.
Just out of the shower, give me some time to digest the new information.
For now, I want to call attention to the fact that with the wagon at the critical 3 of 7 votes, and despite me being obviously around, I have chosen not to hitch the wagon to the horse, so to speak.
Shz, syl: keep going, I really want to you guys in this discussion, and want to have your thoughts, now that we've calmed down from the D3 madness.
roleclaims: not yet. I am still toying with the possibilities in my mind.
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Germany2687 Posts
I can't, it's 7:55am and I haven't slept yet. If I can't sleep, I'll be around.
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I think you have some valid points there Shz.
Lets just say you are right, and FC/Orange is 1 scum and 1 town. Who is the scum to you, and who is the town?
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On December 29 2012 15:56 shz wrote:
I can't, it's 7:55am and I haven't slept yet. If I can't sleep, I'll be around.
Alright, but I will expect you to be back later. We do need all hands on deck this day phase.
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On December 29 2012 16:02 cDgCorazon wrote:
I think you have some valid points there Shz.
Lets just say you are right, and FC/Orange is 1 scum and 1 town. Who is the scum to you, and who is the town?
I would like to extend this question to you as well Cake.
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I'm around, I'm just trying to figure things out based on the potential of 1 town / 1 scum theory.
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This is setup speculation. It is intended provide information that would help decide whether it is right to role claim or not. It is not intended to guide our continuing scumhunting discussion.
+ Show Spoiler +
7 players remain:
I see two most likely setup possibilities in my mind:
- 5 town vs 2 scum, with town RB and scum RB
or
- 4 town vs 2 scum vs SK, with town RB, scum RB and one more blue role (I see cop more likely than X-shot vig due to framer.)
Note 1: SK also aims to scumhunt early game, and wants to maintain town : mafia ratio within certain bounds while blending in.
Note 2: one kill in N3 could have been an incredibly patient and confident SK, or a successful RB blocking either scum KP or SK KP. Do not discount the possibility of scum RB blocking SK.
Remember, mafia start with the knowledge of alignments, but do not know the distribution of power roles to begin with. Thus far they have managed to take out mocsta, who stuck his neck out too far, but have subsequently gone after most threatening townies, who turned out to be VTs.
How effective have mafia been with their RB? And if we have a cop, did the framer make a difference?
The town PRs have an incredible amount of information, but we cannot squander this too easily.
We cannot afford to out the blues if we may need them still.
Likewise, it is important for PRs to really step up to the responsibility that comes with their role.
As long as we don't mislynch into blue, we'll be in good shape for tonight.
Caveat: we might also be in a different setup than the two I raised. so caution is still the best approach.
tldr:
Is there a watertight plan to win with very high likelihood, in any eventuality, any setup, with any scumteam, with the information we have? If not, then it is not time to roleclaim yet.
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On December 29 2012 16:53 cakepie wrote:
tldr:
Is there a watertight plan to win with very high likelihood, in any eventuality, any setup, with any scumteam, with the information we have? If not, then it is not time to roleclaim yet.
EBWOP:
And any plan had better be openly discussed, scrutinized and endorsed before anyone jumps the gun with roleclaims.
Unless you're about to die, in which case we will have to weigh the claim accordingly together with other arguments for/against.
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EPT
