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On December 28 2012 14:29 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2012 12:13 Sylencia wrote:
At this point the possible remaining scum teams I can see being feasible are 2 of Chrom, Orange and FC, with Orange and Fatchunk's play in the last half hour looking absolutely ridiculous, if they are both scum, I'd laugh pretty hard and how messed up this game became. 1. how would you order the three suspects? 2. What of shz? Earlier, you mentioned that his loyalty was still "up in the air": Show nested quote +On December 26 2012 19:30 Sylencia wrote:
The risk of voting out shz is that if he is town, we're really leaving ourselves vulnerable to scum manipulation in votes. The majority of the town has not really been active in choosing votes, there's just a lot of bandwagoning happening. shz, while he has been voting non-optimally, still gives us a reasonable chance of voting out scum if we find one, if he is town. The problem lies with his loyalty, which is up in the air, but I am honestly unsure of his status.
If we leave in shz and he is scum, the reverse of what I mentioned just now happens, where he can easily manipulate the votes with the rest of the scum playing a bandwagon game, requiring only one extra vote to end the game. This can easily be done, and it's rather risky. Personally, I'd still consider Kick a higher priority simply because it's easier to tell by the end of the next day what shz is since he does participate in the discussions. Does kickstart's shz vote + the failed switch convince you that Shz is town? We've lynched kickstart, but shz's "non-optimal" voting may still be a liability as town, or mask his intentions as a bandwagoning scum. How would you assess his participation in D3 discussions, notwithstanding the failed wagon on him?
1. FC, Chrom then Orange, the difference between my suspicions of Chrom and Orange are very very slim. Honestly, they both look super shady to me. The reason why FC looks the most scummy to me is because he decided to switch votes at the very last minute, even though he was already voting for someone he 'suspected', and even though he had more of a 'suspicion' on shz he decided not to bring it up or change his vote any sooner. My guess is that because there was the last minute rush, if there was a person who blindly moved over then the vote would be over and there would be yet another mislynch.
As for shz, I think the fact the scum tried to kill him off gives him a very strong town image. If he is scum, hats off to them, the last 30 minutes and Kick's accusations of him have really made him look a lot less suspicious. I wouldn't put it past Kick either to be planning that, which is why I'm not completely discounting it, but the other 3 were definitely a lot more shady. His play is still non-commital, but what he has done during Day 3 was definitely a lot more town-oriented than what a lot of the other people were doing.
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On December 28 2012 16:50 Sylencia wrote:
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1. FC, Chrom then Orange, the difference between my suspicions of Chrom and Orange are very very slim. Honestly, they both look super shady to me.
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Besides the end of day three, what about Chromatic's play strikes you as shady?
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I've been looking or the events and posts surrounding Shz's almost-lynching, and I've come up with a few things I'd like to share.
I think it's ok to vote for Shz. His play has still been sub-par this game, and I'm not saying that anyone is scum or not just because of how they voted.
Cake (Voted for FC)- He already stated his reasoning, and I think that his points have merit. We shouldn’t look too much into Cake’s decision to vote FC.
Chrom- While he was not the first one to vote for Shz, he started the whole bandwagon with:
[Spoiler]On December 28 2012 08:18 Chromatically wrote:
In fact, you can ignore the thing I posted. There's no reason for a townie to not care at all about the d2 lynch. No pushing, no voting, nothing at all. Not town behavior.
Voteswitch time, everyone. [Spoiler]
His reasons for Shz are solid, and I feel the same way. When he says that Shz did not vote on D2, he really meant it. His D2 vote for Chrom was really just a useless vote, and could have been used somewhere else. The OMGUS vote, along with the lurking and lack of contribution, shows that Chrom's vote for Shz was justified and reasonable. Unfortunately, I have to give Chrom the title of shepherd, because what came next became a clusterf**k of sheeping.
Kick-Obviously, this is one of the more puzzling votes, but figuring out his motives could help us greatly in the scumhunt ahead. The most curious thing about his vote was the timing. His vote for Shz was 10 minutes before the deadline.
-Why would he time it that late if he wanted to make a move to save himself?
-Wouldn’t a better way to save himself be to defend himself a few hours before?
-Had Kick given up, and was just exploiting a possible way to escape lynching, or was he trying to create some last minute chaos to rock everyone right before the votes were final?
On December 28 2012 12:30 cakepie wrote:
3: Kick's play is a calculated chaos play betting on the sheeping tendencies we have already seen the past two days. It enables massive WIFOM bombs, while perhaps part of the scumteam stays on the Kick wagon to keep distance and gain town cred, while townies make a fool of themselves.
This is a very likely possibility, if Kick acted alone, it was more likely because of this cause. More on how we should find out at the end of the post. For now, let’s move on to the other two.
Orange:
+ Show Spoiler +On December 28 2012 08:55 Orangeremi wrote:
Since that train seems to be going somewhere and scum seems fine with us voting Kick.
##Vote: shz
Chrom, if shz turns town I'm looking at you. Hopping off of FC wagon when it seemed to gain momentum was something I was looking for.
This is sheep #1. His whole post says, “I’m a sheep, I’m voting for Shz. The shepherd is supposed to be in charge of me, so if things go wrong with this vote, I can just dump the blame on him”. That is basically how his vote played out. This is textbook scum play. What is one way scum stays out of the spotlight? Joining the bandwagon of someone who has a strong town read from many other players in the game. This does one of two things:
Gets rid of someone that scum knows is town, which puts the town in an even worse position.
Giving Orange a way out if the vote goes wrong. If Shz flipped town, Orange can just point the finger at Chrom and stay in the shadows while another townie gets lynched.
He even admits that is what he wants to do:
Chrom, if shz turns town I'm looking at you. Hopping off of FC wagon when it seemed to gain momentum was something I was looking for.
Sheeping and not scumhunting are two tell-tale signs of scum. He doesn’t even try to defend himself when I directly call him out, he just ignores it and posts. We need to pressure him. He’s gotten away with this behavior so far because everyone else’s behavior was just so bad.
FatChunk
His original vote post: + Show Spoiler +On December 28 2012 08:58 FatChunk wrote:
okay well I think that either of the two people are scum: sHz and kickstart, and to be honest the last post of shz on the 27th was really scummy to me. I hope we're right.
##unvote
##Vote: sHz
His post explaining his vote:
+ Show Spoiler +On December 28 2012 10:52 FatChunk wrote:
Okay so here is/was my thought process.
Chrom made some interesting observations about sHz, enough to cause me to make my read slightly stronger about sHz than Kick. After all, kick was a lurker more than anything, and scum lynch > lurker lynch. I was pretty confident in following someone with town rep like chrom, especially someone who is willing to risk his town rep on a scum read.
but at this point I think that sHz is cleared, right? if shz was scum, Kickstart, a player with some experience, would not accuse sHz of scum that early in the game: it is just bad play. Unless kick was making bad cases to be shot down and appear to be scumhunting. Distancing himself from fellow scum? I don't know.
Orangeremi, kickstart's scum partner, chooses to try and swing the vote toward sHz as a last minute attempt. His explanation is that he didn't think kickstart was scum, and that he voted me to judge my reaction.
The part that interested me most was the line:
I was pretty confident in following someone with a town rep like chrom, especially someone who is willing to risk his town rep on a scum read.
Which contrasts with this post (this isn’t the whole post, but I made sure not to take him out of context):
+ Show Spoiler +On December 21 2012 04:03 FatChunk wrote:
chromatically - I have noticed that he pressures too hard to the point of almost lying and skewing my words and overanalyzing small reactions in order to further his agenda. Faint vibe that I think should be looked into. Also, he seems like an experienced player which is scary if hes mafia.
And this post:
+ Show Spoiler +On December 24 2012 03:03 FatChunk wrote:
Regarding his[OE's] FoS on me:
All I ever said was that I had a suspicion of chrom, something that needed to be examined after a lynch of omni, who is the most suspicious right now in my eyes. I also simply mentioned that Mocsta's case should be considered as we move forward.
Well, isn’t that a complete 180 from D1 and D2? What gave you such a change of heart? Maybe it was the mislynch of Omni. FC could have figured out that if he says that he believes that Chrom is town, it could be to just keep Chrom around to be the shepherd to get all the townies to lynch themselves (which happened on D2, and possibly almost happened on D3). He could also reading Chrom as town because if the town decide to lynch Chrom off (in the case that Shz got lynched and flipped town), he can defend Chrom and therefore get some town cred if Chrom flips town. While it is not as open as Orange, FC’s sheeping needs to be looked into. He also needs to explain his change of heart on Chrom, and start naming off some suspects if he wants to prove he is not scum.
So the question is: Where do we go from here?
It seems like the next lynch could shape up to be a lynch for information. In normal circumstances, it is a bad thing, but with all the chaos that finished up Day 3, lynching for answers could be the way to root out the last 2 scum. Now that we have some more breathing room, and LYLO is again just a bad dream for now, a lynch for information here might be very beneficial to the town.
Do we lynch Shz, and figure out if his almost-lynch today was a bunch of sheeps, or a mafia clusterf**k?
Do we lynch someone who jumped on the bandwagon, and figure out from there if the bandwagon on Shz was an attempt to bus, or a case with some merit, which would put Shz back under suspicion?
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So close with the BBcode, dammit.
Anyways, this case has taken way too long to write, and I need to go to bed.
I'll be looking forward to more developments in the morning.
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On December 28 2012 17:56 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2012 16:50 Sylencia wrote:
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1. FC, Chrom then Orange, the difference between my suspicions of Chrom and Orange are very very slim. Honestly, they both look super shady to me.
... Besides the end of day three, what about Chromatic's play strikes you as shady?
Honestly, it looks like it was just leftover sentiments from night 2, where he mentioned the lurker lynch stuff, but after reading his filter again I failed to really make a case against him... I'm guess it was just that and the end of day play that make me feel weird about him. I'm still going to be wary of him though.
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On December 28 2012 12:12 cakepie wrote:
@orange: Assume not all scum is stupidly trying to swing onto shz. Who is scum initiating/moving with Kickstart onto shz: chrom, FC, or neither? And where in the Kick wagon is the remaining scum hiding?
If both FC and chrom are misguided townies, what was Kickstart up to? How has he managed to misdirect both FC and yourself onto chrom's case? And who among the Kick wagon would you finger as the two likely scum, looking to gain town cred off of Kickstart's 'sacrifice' play?
1) I'm leaning towards neither, unless it's just bad scum play. If I had to choose, it'd be FC since he hopped on last and could use that fact as an excuse.
2) I wouldn't say I'm on chrom's case. I am suspicious because of that move, but his motives seem sound. I don't understand what Kickstart was doing AT ALL. The only thing I can think is that the rest of the mafia planned this lynch to avoid their own suspicion.
The wagoners? I don't know, Syl and Aqua seemed to hop on that train with little initiative and rode it undercover. With what they've contributed, I'm surprised they haven't been nk'd yet.
I still want to wait to see who gets killed tonight. I'm really curious who they'll pick.
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On December 28 2012 22:20 Orangeremi wrote:
The wagoners? I don't know, Syl and Aqua seemed to hop on that train with little initiative and rode it undercover. With what they've contributed, I'm surprised they haven't been nk'd yet.
What do you mean "surprised they haven't been nk'd yet"? Care to elaborate?
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Why haven't they been night killed yet? I'm trying to figure it out. I suppose mocsta and yamato weren't bad nightkills, but I think these players (maybe aqua more than syl) should be up there. If they aren't nk'd tonight I'm going to think
1) The mafia doesn't see these guys as a threat. They're on the wrong track or have some other misdirection
2) They are the mafia
I'm using they as a term for either one of them here, please excuse me.
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ebwop:
this is why I want to see what happens at the end of this Night
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So now cake will probably take the fall, so that your little case against Aqua and I will suggest we are mafia? Seems like a pretty weak attempt at a misdirection right there.
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Let me rephrase the question: why do you expect these two to have been killed by now?
They "hop[ped] on that train with little initiative and rode it undercover" only D3, so surely you don't intend that as a reason that they should have already been killed earlier.
So, I ask you again: How/Why do you see them to be so great a threat to the scum team that they should have taken precedence over mocsta on N1, and yamato on N2?
If not as a threat, what other reason do you have to expect that they should be dead by the hands of scum by now?
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@ syl I think he's up to something else.
If neither Aqua or you, Syl, get killed, who would scum look to kill? And what misdirection would they be attempting, if they are not killing the most obvious threat to themselves at the moment?
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Shz is the only one who I could see going down because of what happened yesterday. His chance of being scum is probably the lowest of everyone in the game right now.
If you stay alive, he's making a play at you to vote someone other than himself.
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On December 28 2012 23:49 Sylencia wrote:
If you stay alive, he's making a play at you to vote someone other than himself.
And if I don't? (Keep your answer to yourself.)
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Lol, but I already gave that answer.
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Q: if roleblocker A targets roleblocker B, and B targets C (say, a medic), then B receives a roleblock notification. But is C sucessfully blocked by B?
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I wanted to clarify the specific case of two RBs rather than a RB on a jailer. But thanks!
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Roleblock is roleblock.
It works the same for RB vs RB scenarios
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Who's here (and not furiously drafting?)
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EPT
