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On December 28 2012 09:48 Orangeremi wrote:
I wasn't trying to get anyone in specific lynched because all that was in my head at the time was "Kick is not scum" and my intention with voting for FC was an attempt to view player's reactions (voting wise). I wasn't trying to push the FC wagon, but I was trying to push people to vote for someone also in attempt to get a read off of how they decided to do it. If FC was scum, it seems kind of stupid to take his vote from Kick and put it on a player he knew would flip town (are we convinced shz would flip town?) seeing as it would gain suspicion. If he was scum, I don't know why his vote was on Kick in the first place.
Not having a clear idea of who you want lynched other than "not Kick" doesn't really look good for you at this point, I have to say.
Who do you think we should lynch tomorrow? Give some thorough reasoning this time.
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Mkay, here's my thought process:
Omni flips town after I was super confident in his scumminess. I was still suspicious of shz, but I was far less confident and think that a lurker lynch is better at this point. You can see that I was still suspicious of shz, I was posting things about that.
I vote FatChunk as pressure. The Kick wagon was taking off really fast and I wanted to hear from all lurkers today, so I put some pressure on him.
shz posts something that I find very scummy, I write a post about it and say that "I would be up for a shz lynch today". I start pushing shz more and become more confident in my read on him, far more confident than what I think about the lurkers. I then come up with my amazing pre-flip association theory that I pretty quickly realize is a bad idea and start pushing shz hard until the lynch.
So basically:
1. Tell people not to lurker lynch because of confidence in Omni
2. After Omni flip, think lurker lynch is good.
3. Not convinced on any lurker, see shz as way scummier.
4. Start pushing shz.
Why I changed from lurker lynch to shz: unconfident in any lurker reads, confident in shz scum.
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On December 28 2012 09:45 Sylencia wrote:
Having a framer in play suggests there's a Cop in play, right?
No, XXXI had a framer and no cop.
Also:
On December 28 2012 07:10 Aquanim wrote:
If scumteam is Kick/Orange/FC, say, they don't really have a choice - one of them's going down today.
Don't know why scum would bus if this wasn't the case.
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I want to hear from everyone who didn't vote Kick, that's an obvious place to start.
I'm under the impression some scum voted for Kick to go under the radar. Probably the player who voted for him with the least conviction?
I'm really very curious with Chrom's switch at the end (before mine) too.
We have a night to go through, and the options to lynch will shrink. It might be simpler to decide then.
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On December 28 2012 09:16 cakepie wrote:
I was ready to vote Kick at XX:59, but with the tie vote rule, I decided to just sit here and sip my coffee instead.
Tbh I got scooped by the votecount with my final refresh. But sipping coffee sounds way more cooler. 
Enough exuberance at the small victory. We are most likely at 6-2 now, and will be 5-2 tomorrow.
@Chrom: scum mass switching from scum Kick to town shz would be incredibly bad play. In view of that
- how strong is your scum read on shz now, after the failed switch?
- other than Kickstart, OrangeRemi and FatChunk switched over to shz. Assuming only one of them is scum, who is the sheeping townie, and who is the scum?
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Okay so here is/was my thought process.
Chrom made some interesting observations about sHz, enough to cause me to make my read slightly stronger about sHz than Kick. After all, kick was a lurker more than anything, and scum lynch > lurker lynch. I was pretty confident in following someone with town rep like chrom, especially someone who is willing to risk his town rep on a scum read.
but at this point I think that sHz is cleared, right? if shz was scum, Kickstart, a player with some experience, would not accuse sHz of scum that early in the game: it is just bad play. Unless kick was making bad cases to be shot down and appear to be scumhunting. Distancing himself from fellow scum? I don't know.
Orangeremi, kickstart's scum partner, chooses to try and swing the vote toward sHz as a last minute attempt. His explanation is that he didn't think kickstart was scum, and that he voted me to judge my reaction.
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Another point we should think about.
Was kick bussing Shz, or was he trying to get himself not lynched?
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On December 28 2012 10:55 cDgCorazon wrote:
Another point we should think about.
Was kick bussing Shz, or was he trying to get himself not lynched?
I dont understand. could you possibly explain?
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Kick is about to be lynched. The last time I looked at the computer was 30 minutes before the lynch. Kick had not posted anything for the whole Day period.
All of a sudden, Chromatically decided to vote for Shz and started the bandwagon to lynch him.
Kick did either one of two things:
1. Realized that there was a window of opportunity to get Shz lynched, and if he flipped scum, all of the pressure would be off him because he voted off scum.
2. Realized that he might not get lynched and decided to actually try. Was not trying to bus, just trying to stay alive.
If #1 is the case, Shz is scum.
If #2 is the case, Shz is town.
I'm curious though, could this be a plan between kick and Chrom to have Chrom make a convincing argument on Shz and try to get the town to sheep and vote for Shz? I really doubt it, but it's still a possibility. Chrom has already gotten a townie lynched off, but OE did really appear to be scum (I voted for him), so I would not look too much into it.
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I can't see option #1 being likely. Kick has been after shz the whole game. Why would he if they were scum team?
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Good point. How do you feel about the last bit with Chrom and Kick?
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Perhaps not. Chrom has been on Shz's case all of D3. It just seems really confusing why he would suddenly switch off of scum Kick to Shz. Especially 30 minutes before the deadline.
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I was referring to the early game. What I meant was that kick could have been making fake cases against sHz early on in order to be able to either bus him later, make himself appear town, or at least distance himself if shz turned scum. question is, how strong is the scum read on shz as of now?
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It's possible that there was a big scheme to have Kick cast suspicion on shz, and then have Kick bussed to clear shz, but it's very unlikely. The simpler explanation is that shz is town and Orange and FC are scum, seizing the oppurtunity to get shz lynched. Also consider: given that both Orange and FC both tried to get shz lynched, shz scum would mean that both Orange and FC are town (unlikely). Orange/FC fits much better.
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I'd also consider that you tried to get him lynched as well. Chrom/FC or Chrom/Orange could fit just as well.
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Chrom/Orange fits? Scumslip?
Also, I wrote a case on FC d1 and pressured him all day.
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I'm not that stupid. I don't think any of the combinations are correct, but FC is most likely. But his partner ?
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On December 28 2012 11:33 Chromatically wrote:
Also consider: given that both Orange and FC both tried to get shz lynched, shz scum would mean that both Orange and FC are town (unlikely). Orange/FC fits much better.
You haven't answered my second question: assuming scum is not so awfully bad as to all jump onto shz, and only one of Orange/FC is scum, who is the sheeping town, and who is the scum, and why?
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Sylencia has gone too silent again.
@Syl: still trying to figure out the possible setups? That should get you nowhere, unless you are scum pondering the existence of a cop/vig.
Let scum worry about that. Come tell us what you think of the Kick/shz interplay.
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@all anyone have anything to toss my way? I'll stick around a bit but may be gone for a stretch later.
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EPT
