|
On December 29 2012 16:02 cDgCorazon wrote:
Lets just say you are right, and FC/Orange is 1 scum and 1 town. Who is the scum to you, and who is the town?
Orangeremi for horribly lost town, FC for scum.
I've been thinking and working on a bad townie hypothesis for orangeremi. Give me more time to organize my thoughts and put them down coherently.
-----
A 3/7 wagon with no alternative candidates is no way to foster discussion and is not going to coax anyone to talk to us.
On December 29 2012 08:57 Chromatically wrote:
My advice is to sheep Aqua.
##Vote: Chromatically
You are sorely mistaken if you think town can kick back and relax now and sheep the way to victory.
Get out here and explain yourself, and then start helping.
-----
@FatChunk
At least orangeremi had some reverse-psychology reasoning thing going on with his voteswitch.
Also, he switched off you onto shz.
On the other hand, you left the Kickstart wagon and followed him onto Shz.
You have not provided enough justification or reasoning for your switch.
You have not sufficiently addressed the questions directed at you.
I've got one more for you too:
+ Show Spoiler +Here at 8:50 you respond to my 8:49 post: On December 28 2012 08:49 cakepie wrote:
shz is here, but obviously not likely to vote for himself.
Aquanim is here. Who else have we got to work with? On December 28 2012 08:50 FatChunk wrote:
i am here, lurking. are we considering switching to shz? So you are capable of refreshing webpages quite rapidly. Kickstart appeared at 08:50, causing Aquanim and myself to start flipping out. Orangeremi switched at 08:55. You switch-voted at 8:58. Never mind Chrom's case and wagon initiation; please justify how you can possibly switch your vote even after these two guys jumped in? Especially Kickstart, who was your other strong scumread besides shz. Do alarm bells not ring for you when you see the convenient timing of his appearance and vote? Why would you follow the voting of a strong scumread, even if the target of the switch is also a strong scumread for you? Did it not occur to you how bad it would look?
##FoS: FatChunk
Speak up. Fearlessly, as you promised early in the game, if you be town.
I want to get Chrom's ass in here right now, but once that is done, my sights are on you. Prove to me why we should not lynch you today or tomorrow.
-----
@Orangeremi: get out here and talk to us. You've got some thoughts on FatChunk, depending on various hypotheses we've been tossing around:
+ Show Spoiler +On December 28 2012 11:44 Orangeremi wrote:
I'm not that stupid. I don't think any of the combinations are correct, but FC is most likely. But his partner ? On December 28 2012 22:20 Orangeremi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2012 12:12 cakepie wrote:
@orange: Assume not all scum is stupidly trying to swing onto shz. Who is scum initiating/moving with Kickstart onto shz: chrom, FC, or neither? And where in the Kick wagon is the remaining scum hiding?
If both FC and chrom are misguided townies, what was Kickstart up to? How has he managed to misdirect both FC and yourself onto chrom's case? And who among the Kick wagon would you finger as the two likely scum, looking to gain town cred off of Kickstart's 'sacrifice' play? 1) I'm leaning towards neither, unless it's just bad scum play. If I had to choose, it'd be FC since he hopped on last and could use that fact as an excuse. 2) I wouldn't say I'm on chrom's case. I am suspicious because of that move, but his motives seem sound. I don't understand what Kickstart was doing AT ALL. The only thing I can think is that the rest of the mafia planned this lynch to avoid their own suspicion. [snip]
Care to expound?
Also, go back and answer outstanding questions directed at you. I'm sure I had a few I wanted to hear from you about.
FatChunk drew a lot more flak than you did for the D3 voteswitch attempt, and you might not be looking this bad if not for your two terribad N3 posts.
At the very least, corazon and I are still looking at FC, and not tunnel-sheeping on you yet. Come, give us something to work with if you are town -- at least, you won't be faulted for not trying at this critical juncture, regardless of any poor play earlier.
|
Germany2687 Posts
On December 29 2012 16:02 cDgCorazon wrote:
I think you have some valid points there Shz.
Lets just say you are right, and FC/Orange is 1 scum and 1 town. Who is the scum to you, and who is the town?
So from the points I did, I think that FC's actions were less detrimental to scum than Orange's. I find it quite difficult to believe that Orange would play this way if he was scum, but then again, does he play very much pro-town? Not really.
I would go for FC for now though.
##Vote: FatChunk
But I'm interested in what both have to say, and cakepie just pressured Chrom, so let us see what comes from that.
|
What are we looking at though, which actions hurt scum less or which actions hurt town more? The former seems a lot harder to prove / have a solid basis on because we don't know who the other scum is.
|
@cakepie
You keep quoting that like it's something super scummy, it's not. I agreed with what Aqua was saying, and I didn't have time to post something. So, half joking, I said to sheep Aqua if I died. You also act like people voting Orange is my fault..?
I've been one of the biggest contributors to this game since D1. If you think that I'm scum, make a case. Otherwise, get your vote somewhere useful.
I will admit that I thought we were in a better position than we actually are. shz's post, especially the point about Orange voting FC when the votes were close, make me doubt that it's both of them. FC needs to explain himself more than Orange does, and I agree that a big vote lead for Orange won't make that happen:
##Unvote
##Vote: FatChunk
I particularly don't like how he downgraded his read on Kick after the lynch. He first said that Kick was his top scumread, but then said that "he was a lurker more than anything" after.
I also still don't like the agressive last line of this old post,
+ Show Spoiler +On December 20 2012 05:49 FatChunk wrote:Show nested quote +Why is Corazon different from everyone else? You say that he's relatively new, but he's just as new as OrangeRemi or threesr (basically, modkills don't count). Yet you don't have any problem lynching those people, just you don't want to lynch Corazon. You also say that you want to lynch lurkers, but don't include Corazon in that list. Why? Okay here we go. OrgangeRemi has posted very little in this game so far, so it is difficult for me to answer your first question with him as an example. Corazon is different from O.R. because he actually posted something in a defensive manner and I am explaining what my read is on this, as per your request. Regarding theesr I have expressed my opinion on him. He is different from corazon because his motives, if he were mafia, can more easily be predicted because of the nature of his posting and his quantity of posts as well. He may share similar qualities as Corazon, but he has quite simply posted more than Corazon and supported his arguments. I simply await more posts from corazon to make a more accurate read. Is this sufficient for you? I am sooo sorry that I didnt put corazon in that list - I either omitted him because I presented my thought on him already, or maybe just to bring light to the fact that we need to discuss other lurkers AS WELL AS Corazon.
I would also like to point out that FC completely ignores Kickstart until D3, at which point he makes him his top read. Could be a coincidence, or could just be good timing to say that because they were planning a bus.
|
Unexpected RL happened, just got back. Really need to catch up on sleep, so I'll make it more of an executive summary.
-----
Can we explain Orangeremi using a terribad townie hypothesis?
D1:
It's the first day, none of us really have very strong reads or high confidence in anything.
Initial no-lynch is a not unexpected, and by the time he checked in again and actually put in a vote it was very late.
The vote was not accompanied by any justification, but it was inconsequential anyway -- consider it as just a flag to indicate one of his top suspects.
D2:
Starts by sheeping onto Chromatically's OmniEulogy wagon, and stays put.
Given the massive sheepfest that occured, we cannot hold this against orange.
In any case, Chrom's case convinced him enough to overtake his own suspicions (on kick and FC)
He shares some thoughts on Kickstart and FC when prodded, also asks me about mocsta's OE+chrom+me scum team theory -- some minimal due diligence following cues left by the deceased.
D3:
Confused, and feeling pressured due to Yamato directing suspicion his way.
Indicates his concern about the Kickstart wagon:
On December 28 2012 01:59 Orangeremi wrote:
The overwhelming vote count for Kick right now leads me to believe the scum are just hopping on his wagon. If he was actually scum, wouldn't the mafia would find another player to try and start a wagon for to save him. But that isn't happening. I think we need to reevaluate.
This is an attempt at trying to figure out what scum would do in the situation, some reverse psychology going on.
He genuinely doesn't think scum would bus Kick, perhaps because kick is the most experienced player among all of us?
Votes onto FatChunk, who he has had suspicions on before.
When the voteswitch happens, he still really does not think scum would bus scum kick, and is convinced therefore that kick is town. But numerically, the only way to avoid kick being lynched was to hope that the alternative shz wagon would work -- the FC wagon, which he would have preferred, certainly wasn't going anywhere. This explains his exasperation at Chrom for moving from FC to shz.
N3:
Already looking bad from the failed voteswitch, frazzled from questioning, and feeling under pressure, he botches his answers to my questions. But there is undeniably another attempt again at trying to fathom what scum is doing.
I should highlight: it's not like he doesn't have a history of trying to use reverse-psychology reasoning:
+ Show Spoiler +On December 20 2012 19:02 Orangeremi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 20 2012 18:24 Mocsta wrote:
@orangeremi. Your filter comments on corazon doing the slip.
You said you didnt pick up anytjing till someone else pointed it out.
Q. If scum have superior starting knowledge and know remaining scum.
Do you think it is reasonable to think you took corazon comments innocently because you knew he was innocent?
Do u have rationale to make me think otherwise?
##fos: orangeremi Completely reasonable. Clever, in fact. I'm happy you caught that, I never would've thought about it. I'm not sure what kind of rationale you're looking for. The only thing I can think of is how foolish it would be of me to post what I did if I were mafia. I'd have no reason to defend a non-mafia claiming to be one since he would be an obvious distraction and good lynch target for me to bandwagon without suspicion.
+ Show Spoiler +On December 22 2012 13:26 Orangeremi wrote:
I don't like how Threesr is playing if he's town. He's helping very little and I could see him playing a reverse psychological scum the way he is acting.
I just don't think the whole reverse psych thing has been working very well. Best stop trying to do that.
@Orange: if you are town, you have got to make a last shot, and step it up, or we are all doomed.
You've had some beef with fatchunk before, and voted him twice already -- sure some things have changed, but I don't see why is it hard for you now to at least scrutinize him and his play.
If you are concerned about botching your answers from before -- well, come out and explain what happened. A townie loses nothing by being honest. See, when I carelessly made up cool story about sipping coffee while the voteswitch occurred, I got called out for it -- but a clear explanation in good faith can go a long way.
Staying quiet is not going to help you, and most definitely does not help town, so the longer you remain clammed up, the worse it is for all of us.
|
@Chrom please don't joke about sheeping. it's very, very unfunny in the context of this game.
Anyhow my vote was clearly to get you in here and has achieved its objective. Stick around, yah?
##Unvote
I like the vote balance as is; under the 1 scum, 1 town hypothesis, both orange and FC have equal incentive to come out and talk to us. Let's hope we may learn something more, yet.
|
On December 30 2012 01:25 cakepie wrote:
@Chrom please don't joke about sheeping. it's very, very unfunny in the context of this game.
Anyhow my vote was clearly to get you in here and has achieved its objective. Stick around, yah?
##Unvote
I like the vote balance as is; under the 1 scum, 1 town hypothesis, both orange and FC have equal incentive to come out and talk to us. Let's hope we may learn something more, yet.
Do you really feel like theyre both going to defend themselves? Orange hasn't even defended himself at all the whole game. FC has done a little work defending himself, but they've been inconsistent and weak.
If you go out and attack Orange, he just kind of sits there and posts other things, pretending your argument is not even there. That's why I've been after him since D2. He's afraid to rise to the challenge of defending himself, and just hopes that no one notices his lack of defending himself. At least FC has done a few things to try to prove he's not scum, even if they aren't very convincing.
I'm not saying FC is 100% town, but I think Orange is still the most likely scum, trying to get FC to be lynched.
|
Germany2687 Posts
Wait a minute.
I didn't look at Orange's play if he was scum and FC was town. Then the vote would make a lot of more sense. The Aqua thing is still strange, but if scum was really that afraid of Aqua, might be better to kill him off...
Dammit. This isn't as clear as it seems.
|
On December 30 2012 01:35 cDgCorazon wrote:Show nested quote +On December 30 2012 01:25 cakepie wrote:
I like the vote balance as is; under the 1 scum, 1 town hypothesis, both orange and FC have equal incentive to come out and talk to us. Let's hope we may learn something more, yet. Do you really feel like theyre both going to defend themselves? Orange hasn't even defended himself at all the whole game. FC has done a little work defending himself, but they've been inconsistent and weak. If you go out and attack Orange, he just kind of sits there and posts other things, pretending your argument is not even there. That's why I've been after him since D2. He's afraid to rise to the challenge of defending himself, and just hopes that no one notices his lack of defending himself. At least FC has done a few things to try to prove he's not scum, even if they aren't very convincing. I'm not saying FC is 100% town, but I think Orange is still the most likely scum, trying to get FC to be lynched.
Well, being bad at defending oneself isn't a new problem in this game:
+ Show Spoiler +On December 20 2012 10:04 threesr wrote:
Wow chrome is so good at defending me. On December 20 2012 10:04 threesr wrote:
<3 chrome On December 20 2012 10:05 Chromatically wrote:
You're pretty bad at defending yourself. On December 20 2012 10:05 threesr wrote:
That goes without saying
Of course, we know how that turned out.
I don't want to read too much into ability or willingness to defend oneself.
If attacking them did not work before, why should we expect continued attacks to yield any different results?
The point of the 1 scum / 1 town hypothesis is, if we're making a terrible mistake with the theory of Kick/orange/FC scumteam, and one, or even both of them is innocent, they have nothing to lose in talking to us (we're close to lynching them!) and everything to lose by staying silent (we mislynch, shit happens, town loses).
|
Votecount:
Orangeremi (2): cDgCorazon, Sylencia
FatChunk (2): shz, Chromatically
Not voting (3): FatChunk, Orangeremi, cakepie
Currently, Orangeremi is set to be lynched! ~31 hours remaining in day 1.
Please PM any of your friendly neighborhood hosts if your vote is counted incorrectly.
|
Orange has at least explained himself, albeit unconvincingly. FatChunk hasn't explained himself yet. Several people have pointed out problems with his "thought process", he has yet to answer them. For example:
+ Show Spoiler +On December 28 2012 13:30 Chromatically wrote:@FatChunk Show nested quote +On December 28 2012 08:58 FatChunk wrote:
okay well I think that either of the two people are scum: sHz and kickstart, and to be honest the last post of shz on the 27th was really scummy to me. I hope we're right.
##unvote
##Vote: sHz Show nested quote +On December 27 2012 14:30 shz wrote:
Ome thing to note though, which seems very odd to me.
If we misslynch today, we pretty much fucked, so it should be in scums interest to direct us towards a misslynch, to nearly lock that game down. But there seems to be no oposition towards lynching Kick. Could this mean that mafia is fine with that lynch? Which would mean we are wrong. Really? This was shz's last post on the 27th by forum time. By what reasoning did you somehow decide that this post, made a while ago, somehow suddenly made shz scummier that Kickstart? On December 29 2012 23:58 Chromatically wrote:... I will admit that I thought we were in a better position than we actually are. shz's post, especially the point about Orange voting FC when the votes were close, make me doubt that it's both of them. FC needs to explain himself more than Orange does, and I agree that a big vote lead for Orange won't make that happen: ##Unvote##Vote: FatChunkI particularly don't like how he downgraded his read on Kick after the lynch. He first said that Kick was his top scumread, but then said that "he was a lurker more than anything" after. I also still don't like the agressive last line of this old post, + Show Spoiler +On December 20 2012 05:49 FatChunk wrote:Show nested quote +Why is Corazon different from everyone else? You say that he's relatively new, but he's just as new as OrangeRemi or threesr (basically, modkills don't count). Yet you don't have any problem lynching those people, just you don't want to lynch Corazon. You also say that you want to lynch lurkers, but don't include Corazon in that list. Why? Okay here we go. OrgangeRemi has posted very little in this game so far, so it is difficult for me to answer your first question with him as an example. Corazon is different from O.R. because he actually posted something in a defensive manner and I am explaining what my read is on this, as per your request. Regarding theesr I have expressed my opinion on him. He is different from corazon because his motives, if he were mafia, can more easily be predicted because of the nature of his posting and his quantity of posts as well. He may share similar qualities as Corazon, but he has quite simply posted more than Corazon and supported his arguments. I simply await more posts from corazon to make a more accurate read. Is this sufficient for you? I am sooo sorry that I didnt put corazon in that list - I either omitted him because I presented my thought on him already, or maybe just to bring light to the fact that we need to discuss other lurkers AS WELL AS Corazon. I would also like to point out that FC completely ignores Kickstart until D3, at which point he makes him his top read. Could be a coincidence, or could just be good timing to say that because they were planning a bus.
|
I'm glad we've got some nice thought processes going.
A couple loose ends before I sign out for the night:
1.
Can someone else try formulating a townie hypothesis for FC? Although I expect it will be quite a challenge.
2.
Implicit in 1 scum/1 town is that there is one more scum hiding among the remaining five besides orange/FC.
So, qualified scumhunt, gogogo. (Please clearly indicate that you are working on 1 scum/1 town assumption)
|
This is what I mean by not defending himself. Here is my original accusations on Day 2
+ Show Spoiler +On December 22 2012 09:15 cDgCorazon wrote:While we are all giving out possible cases. A few points have been covered so far, but I believe we should put all of our options on the table, and I would like to do this before someone else does so and make me look like a bandwagoner. A case against Orangeremi.Someone I would like to make a case against is Orangeremi, who has not made a significant enough contribution to the town to be completely innocent, and their lack of participation of making real discussion has made me very skeptical about their town/scum status. Besides 1-2 posts, the rest have not been very thought-provoking, and have been mostly one-liners and stuff that does not advance the discussion forward. This is a very safe strategy to not attract attention, a strategy which would benefit a scum very much. Show nested quote +On December 20 2012 06:26 Orangeremi wrote:On December 19 2012 23:21 cakepie wrote:
Q: Pick and make a case against someone.
I don't feel obligated to respond to this question. I've found very little evidence to incriminate any player and deem it foolish to attempt a case towards anyone I'm entirely unsure of. Maybe I'll come across something before Day's end, but until then I'm inclined not to answer. While I would like to say that his/her intentions were good, they have waited too long to come forward with any names. This implies that either they have not seen anything from anyone that has looked suspicious (which I highly doubt, as other people have said suspicious things), or he is afraid to come forward with any accusations because that would put them in the spotlight. From my earlier post: Show nested quote +On December 22 2012 00:25 cDgCorazon wrote:
They [scum] are afraid to call people out (a mistake I have made that might have made you all think I was scum, but I already have 2-3 people I would like to question once the Day cycle starts again) in fear of being called out themselves.
Orangeremi’s only hint of who he feels as suspicious has come in the way of this post: Show nested quote +On December 20 2012 10:23 Orangeremi wrote:
At this point I'm entirely uncommitted.
Of all players nominated for lynching, FatChunk, Threesr, and cDgCorazon are the ones I'm considering.
Otherwise, I have a slight suspicion of Sylencia that is based solely on a hunch and little to no evidence. They named 4 people who they are slightly suspicious of, but put no reason behind any of his suspicions. This is a scummy action because they simply did not have a good reason for suspecting those 4 people to be scum. A big scum tell is just accusing people without giving any arguments, or arguments that do not make any logical sense. It is almost hoping that the town agrees so the scum’s lynch target(s) can go down, without making any effort whatsoever. Since Orangeremi has not given arguments for why Threesr, Fatchunk, and Sylencia (they have given an argument for me) are scum, we should assume for now that he/she does not have an argument for them. Not only is that a weak accusation, but a scummy accusation as well. I feel like OJR (which is what I’m calling he/she from now on, much easier to write) needs to step up his scum-hunting efforts in order to clear suspicion from myself. OJR has all the room to defend themselves, but until OJR picks it up, I am very suspicious of them. I also wish that if you guys vote for OJR later, you should have a good reason for doing it as well. I'm not too fond of bandwagoners.
To which he replied:
On December 22 2012 12:30 Orangeremi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2012 06:49 Aquanim wrote:
@Orangeremi: What did you think of Spaghetticus' defence to my case? I wasn't swayed either way by it. Your case was a tough one to argue and he tried. I don't feel like he succeeded. When he answered my question about his defense it seemed to me even fluffier as well. At this point I think it's fairly obvious, unfortunately I woke up too late to detail a case myself. Most everything that could've been said about him has been. It will take a fair deal of convincing for me to change my mind before Day's end. ##Vote: OmniEulogy
Answering absolutely none of my points. When I asked him to do so:
On December 22 2012 12:47 cDgCorazon wrote:
You still have not answered any of my accusations Orangeremi. Care to do so?
We have this exchange of messages:
On December 22 2012 12:59 Orangeremi wrote:
Is there anything in specific you're looking for? All of your claims are valid, and you just asked me to step up my scum hunting.
On December 22 2012 13:01 cDgCorazon wrote:
Is there anyone you think is suspicious besides OE?
On December 22 2012 13:26 Orangeremi wrote:
I don't like how Threesr is playing if he's town. He's helping very little and I could see him playing a reverse psychological scum the way he is acting.
I've got my eye on FC, but want to hold off on further judgements until I see him post this Day
I'm also waiting on more from Kickstart, I'm wary of how he's playing this game as opposed to his last one.
While this is somewhat of a response, I still would like more clarity, to see that he really is making an effort in the scumhunt, and not naming off people who are just easy lynch targets:
On December 22 2012 13:35 cDgCorazon wrote:
Could you go into a bit more depth? Any posts that indicate these behaviors to you?
To which he gracefully comes back decides to switch the topic with:
On December 22 2012 14:01 Orangeremi wrote:
@cake I'm interested in his theory regarding you+OE+Chrom scum team, but I don't know how much credibility it has.
Just trying to change the subject when the finger is pointed at him, trying to get himself out of the spotlight? Looks so. What would he do as scum? He would try to look like he is answering my accusations, but also try to get the spotlight off of him as quickly as he could. That’s exactly what he did.
And then there’s my second big attack on him (and FC):
On December 29 2012 08:40 cDgCorazon wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On December 28 2012 18:26 cDgCorazon wrote:I've been looking or the events and posts surrounding Shz's almost-lynching, and I've come up with a few things I'd like to share. I think it's ok to vote for Shz. His play has still been sub-par this game, and I'm not saying that anyone is scum or not just because of how they voted. Cake (Voted for FC)- He already stated his reasoning, and I think that his points have merit. We shouldn’t look too much into Cake’s decision to vote FC. Chrom- While he was not the first one to vote for Shz, he started the whole bandwagon with: + Show Spoiler +On December 28 2012 08:18 Chromatically wrote:
In fact, you can ignore the thing I posted. There's no reason for a townie to not care at all about the d2 lynch. No pushing, no voting, nothing at all. Not town behavior.
Voteswitch time, everyone. His reasons for Shz are solid, and I feel the same way. When he says that Shz did not vote on D2, he really meant it. His D2 vote for Chrom was really just a useless vote, and could have been used somewhere else. The OMGUS vote, along with the lurking and lack of contribution, shows that Chrom's vote for Shz was justified and reasonable. Unfortunately, I have to give Chrom the title of shepherd, because what came next became a clusterf**k of sheeping. Kick-Obviously, this is one of the more puzzling votes, but figuring out his motives could help us greatly in the scumhunt ahead. The most curious thing about his vote was the timing. His vote for Shz was 10 minutes before the deadline. -Why would he time it that late if he wanted to make a move to save himself? -Wouldn’t a better way to save himself be to defend himself a few hours before? -Had Kick given up, and was just exploiting a possible way to escape lynching, or was he trying to create some last minute chaos to rock everyone right before the votes were final? Show nested quote +On December 28 2012 12:30 cakepie wrote:
3: Kick's play is a calculated chaos play betting on the sheeping tendencies we have already seen the past two days. It enables massive WIFOM bombs, while perhaps part of the scumteam stays on the Kick wagon to keep distance and gain town cred, while townies make a fool of themselves.
This is a very likely possibility, if Kick acted alone, it was more likely because of this cause. More on how we should find out at the end of the post. For now, let’s move on to the other two. Orange:+ Show Spoiler +On December 28 2012 08:55 Orangeremi wrote:
Since that train seems to be going somewhere and scum seems fine with us voting Kick.
##Vote: shz
Chrom, if shz turns town I'm looking at you. Hopping off of FC wagon when it seemed to gain momentum was something I was looking for. This is sheep #1. His whole post says, “I’m a sheep, I’m voting for Shz. The shepherd is supposed to be in charge of me, so if things go wrong with this vote, I can just dump the blame on him”. That is basically how his vote played out. This is textbook scum play. What is one way scum stays out of the spotlight? Joining the bandwagon of someone who has a strong town read from many other players in the game. This does one of two things: Gets rid of someone that scum knows is town, which puts the town in an even worse position. Giving Orange a way out if the vote goes wrong. If Shz flipped town, Orange can just point the finger at Chrom and stay in the shadows while another townie gets lynched. He even admits that is what he wants to do: Show nested quote + Chrom, if shz turns town I'm looking at you. Hopping off of FC wagon when it seemed to gain momentum was something I was looking for.
Sheeping and not scumhunting are two tell-tale signs of scum. He doesn’t even try to defend himself when I directly call him out, he just ignores it and posts. We need to pressure him. He’s gotten away with this behavior so far because everyone else’s behavior was just so bad. FatChunkHis original vote post: + Show Spoiler +On December 28 2012 08:58 FatChunk wrote:
okay well I think that either of the two people are scum: sHz and kickstart, and to be honest the last post of shz on the 27th was really scummy to me. I hope we're right.
##unvote
##Vote: sHz His post explaining his vote: + Show Spoiler +On December 28 2012 10:52 FatChunk wrote:
Okay so here is/was my thought process.
Chrom made some interesting observations about sHz, enough to cause me to make my read slightly stronger about sHz than Kick. After all, kick was a lurker more than anything, and scum lynch > lurker lynch. I was pretty confident in following someone with town rep like chrom, especially someone who is willing to risk his town rep on a scum read.
but at this point I think that sHz is cleared, right? if shz was scum, Kickstart, a player with some experience, would not accuse sHz of scum that early in the game: it is just bad play. Unless kick was making bad cases to be shot down and appear to be scumhunting. Distancing himself from fellow scum? I don't know.
Orangeremi, kickstart's scum partner, chooses to try and swing the vote toward sHz as a last minute attempt. His explanation is that he didn't think kickstart was scum, and that he voted me to judge my reaction. The part that interested me most was the line: Show nested quote +I was pretty confident in following someone with a town rep like chrom, especially someone who is willing to risk his town rep on a scum read. Which contrasts with this post (this isn’t the whole post, but I made sure not to take him out of context): + Show Spoiler +On December 21 2012 04:03 FatChunk wrote:
chromatically - I have noticed that he pressures too hard to the point of almost lying and skewing my words and overanalyzing small reactions in order to further his agenda. Faint vibe that I think should be looked into. Also, he seems like an experienced player which is scary if hes mafia.
And this post: + Show Spoiler +On December 24 2012 03:03 FatChunk wrote:
Regarding his[OE's] FoS on me:
All I ever said was that I had a suspicion of chrom, something that needed to be examined after a lynch of omni, who is the most suspicious right now in my eyes. I also simply mentioned that Mocsta's case should be considered as we move forward.
Well, isn’t that a complete 180 from D1 and D2? What gave you such a change of heart? Maybe it was the mislynch of Omni. FC could have figured out that if he says that he believes that Chrom is town, it could be to just keep Chrom around to be the shepherd to get all the townies to lynch themselves (which happened on D2, and possibly almost happened on D3). He could also reading Chrom as town because if the town decide to lynch Chrom off (in the case that Shz got lynched and flipped town), he can defend Chrom and therefore get some town cred if Chrom flips town. While it is not as open as Orange, FC’s sheeping needs to be looked into. He also needs to explain his change of heart on Chrom, and start naming off some suspects if he wants to prove he is not scum. So the question is: Where do we go from here?It seems like the next lynch could shape up to be a lynch for information. In normal circumstances, it is a bad thing, but with all the chaos that finished up Day 3, lynching for answers could be the way to root out the last 2 scum. Now that we have some more breathing room, and LYLO is again just a bad dream for now, a lynch for information here might be very beneficial to the town. Do we lynch Shz, and figure out if his almost-lynch today was a bunch of sheeps, or a mafia clusterf**k? Do we lynch someone who jumped on the bandwagon, and figure out from there if the bandwagon on Shz was an attempt to bus, or a case with some merit, which would put Shz back under suspicion?
Which was not addressed at all in his last post:
On December 28 2012 22:20 Orangeremi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2012 12:12 cakepie wrote:
@orange: Assume not all scum is stupidly trying to swing onto shz. Who is scum initiating/moving with Kickstart onto shz: chrom, FC, or neither? And where in the Kick wagon is the remaining scum hiding?
If both FC and chrom are misguided townies, what was Kickstart up to? How has he managed to misdirect both FC and yourself onto chrom's case? And who among the Kick wagon would you finger as the two likely scum, looking to gain town cred off of Kickstart's 'sacrifice' play? 1) I'm leaning towards neither, unless it's just bad scum play. If I had to choose, it'd be FC since he hopped on last and could use that fact as an excuse. 2) I wouldn't say I'm on chrom's case. I am suspicious because of that move, but his motives seem sound. I don't understand what Kickstart was doing AT ALL. The only thing I can think is that the rest of the mafia planned this lynch to avoid their own suspicion. The wagoners? I don't know, Syl and Aqua seemed to hop on that train with little initiative and rode it undercover. With what they've contributed, I'm surprised they haven't been nk'd yet. I still want to wait to see who gets killed tonight. I'm really curious who they'll pick.
He’s simply not defending himself. If he wants to prove he is not scum, he needs to defend himself and stop pretending like everything is going to blow over like it’s nothing.
|
And you think that FC has defended himself?
|
Okay first off I'd like to say that I was roleblocked last night.
I went back and read the comments from ~page 63 on and will address comments made regarding my play:
@Chrom regarding shz's post on 27th
the post i referred to regarding shz was a different one. Dec 27 13:42. Scummy to me because he is lynching for information, and and declares kick the scummiest and decided that he will probably vote for him. no confidence, no assertion. No confidence in lynch at this point in the game - what does this mean? can we never trust shz's sheeping vote for his own opinion? Note that this is pre-lynch.
@cake, all
My vote for shz was prompted by chromatically. Quite simply, I thought that sHz would be a better lynch and the decision was not based solely on shz's post I am referring to. I wanted to stand by my read at that point in time. 5-3 to 4-4 would result in kick being lynched anyway, and it was clear that only one of the two were scum. My read changed based on posts from chrom, kick, and so my vote changed. i.e. to sHz. I didn't think about the repercussions of voting so late, and to be honest, I probably would have still made the same decision. I sheeped to Chrom on the premise that scum reads come before lurker reads.
And to those saying I never mentioned kick in early game, it's cause he didnt do anything (@chrom). we had all focused on hunting scumreads over lurkers. He flew under my radar, just like the other lurkers. This point is null to me, as everyone has done this at one point in the game.
@Corazon
I made a post that you missed, regarding how I changed my read on chrom based on the agressive townie hypothesis. The OE/chrom scumteam was quickly discarded as to chrom's defense.
But you're saying that I am scum, changed my "read" on chrom to town read just so I can sit back and hope that chrom picks the townies to lynch under poor evidence? That would be awful scumplay.
@Aqua's case
You keep attacking me and making it seem like the reasons for my decisions are influenced by one single line that I typed. he says i switched my vote to shz because of shz's post a day ago, when I never actually stated that I thought 1) kick was my top scumread, 2) shz was less scummy than kick.
My inability to contribute is because im lazy, and I post basically once a day. Take from that what you like, but I'm not breaking my back over this game like the rest of you.
OJR:
On December 28 2012 22:20 Orangeremi wrote:
The wagoners? I don't know, Syl and Aqua seemed to hop on that train with little initiative and rode it undercover. With what they've contributed, I'm surprised they haven't been nk'd yet.
then..
On December 28 2012 23:17 Orangeremi wrote:
Why haven't they been night killed yet? I'm trying to figure it out. I suppose mocsta and yamato weren't bad nightkills, but I think these players (maybe aqua more than syl) should be up there.
No reasons for the things he says. Town read on aqau/syl. He's after me, initially as a pressure vote, now as a lynch vote because I'm the only other option.
Quick Q to orange: who is your 3rd scumread after myself? If you are town you should have a good idea.
Now, being in my shoes, I am telling you that there is one more scum out there besides orangeremi. I know this isnt too helpful but please consider sylencia. Quick note:
has town read from orangeremi - attempt to distance himself and give sylencia final shot to win as he gets lynched. Maybe I'll write something up on him before I get lynched.
At this point the kick/shz interplay simply tells me that there is no way shz is mafia unless kick is a mastermind genius, planning this from day 1.
If I missed anything please ask again later.
|
On December 28 2012 05:07 FatChunk wrote:
I literally just kept delaying posting for this reason. I have been quite lazy. OMGUS?
First, I'd like to address something that gave cakepie a scumread on me:
Me lynching omni for information. In that post of mine I prefaced the post with such a statement. I later began to develop why I think this would be a good lynch, followed by stating that I had a scumread on him. The town flip on omni makes us doubt Mocsta's cases on chrom and cakepie, and helps us look at relationships omni has with other players.
Well, this is more defense of himself than Orange has given.
|
On December 30 2012 01:52 cakepie wrote:
The point of the 1 scum / 1 town hypothesis is, if we're making a terrible mistake with the theory of Kick/orange/FC scumteam, and one, or even both of them is innocent, they have nothing to lose in talking to us (we're close to lynching them!) and everything to lose by staying silent (we mislynch, shit happens, town loses).
Doesn't "talking to us" imply defending themselves?
|
On December 24 2012 01:04 cDgCorazon wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2012 21:16 Orangeremi wrote:
I suppose I should clarify. I've had very few scum reads this game. I've had plenty of suspicions. When referring to 'scum reads' I'm just mentioning the players I'm suspicious of. I honestly couldn't say that I wasn't convinced any players were scum D1.
My explanation for voting FC over Spag is I was convinced Spag was town after reading his long final post before being lynched. At that point I felt it was a toss-up between FC and Kickstart in my mind and I just voted to avoid voting no-lynch (since people seemed to not want me to). I would take all the players I've mentioned with a grain of salt, especially since I haven't made a case for any of them.
However, none of my suspicions from then compare with how convinced I am with my D2 vote. After viewing Chrom's evidence towards Omni and then reviewing it myself, there's no way he's town. This satisfies me as well. I feel like it explains the things you were accused of. Good job defending yourself, just keep up the scum hunting. ##unvote
Is there a particular reason that you ignored this post, Corazon?
After you presented your first case, you said that it had satisfied your accusations.
|
On December 30 2012 04:32 FatChunk wrote:
Okay first off I'd like to say that I was roleblocked last night.
I went back and read the comments from ~page 63 on and will address comments made regarding my play:
@Chrom regarding shz's post on 27th
the post i referred to regarding shz was a different one. Dec 27 13:42. Scummy to me because he is lynching for information, and and declares kick the scummiest and decided that he will probably vote for him. no confidence, no assertion. No confidence in lynch at this point in the game - what does this mean? can we never trust shz's sheeping vote for his own opinion? Note that this is pre-lynch.
@cake, all
My vote for shz was prompted by chromatically. Quite simply, I thought that sHz would be a better lynch and the decision was not based solely on shz's post I am referring to. I wanted to stand by my read at that point in time. 5-3 to 4-4 would result in kick being lynched anyway, and it was clear that only one of the two were scum. My read changed based on posts from chrom, kick, and so my vote changed. i.e. to sHz. I didn't think about the repercussions of voting so late, and to be honest, I probably would have still made the same decision. I sheeped to Chrom on the premise that scum reads come before lurker reads.
On December 24 2012 03:03 FatChunk wrote:
Well so far I'm going to have to vote for Omni tonight because lynching omni gives us the most amount of information. Also I pin him as someone trying to cover up a slip, especially because he puts the FoS on me when it was not only me who shares suspicion on him and chrom. I guess I am an easy lynch-target? Then he proceeds to vote orangeremi because he is the only alternative, and then posts 1 sentence on his justification for his vote.
...
##Vote:OmniEulogy
?
Also, what posts of mine changed your mind from Kick to shz?
If scum reads come before lurker reads, why was Kick your top read for D3?
|
On December 26 2012 15:57 cDgCorazon wrote:Show nested quote +On December 26 2012 15:42 cakepie wrote:
cDgCorazon: You had a nice thing against OrangeRemi going, until he somehow convinced you that he had only "suspicions" but no reads to share. Care to pick up where you left off on that?
The reason I stopped pursuing Orange was that OE decided that he did not want to live anymore, and made a silly arguments that really made me feel like his erratic behavior was scummy. My suspicions of Orange are still strong, I just felt like OE was the better lynch choice at the time. The truth is, Orange still has not responded directly to my accusations. However, he has posted a little but more, and is a little less lurky than before. I would like Orange's accusations to come out into the open. Holding them back is only hurting the town. I would like to see Orange become more active today, and give us his reads. I feel like he is more of a mystery than Kick right now. After seeing four townies go down, we cannot afford to take risks, and we need to go for the more likely scum lynch. My most suspicious people, in order, are as follows: -Kick -Orange -FatChunk (I feel like while he has given some reads, his activity level has been sub-par. However, less sub-par than the above two)
I already addressed that question.
However, I did overlook that post.
On the other hand, Orange has also not answered my second round of accusations:
On December 29 2012 08:40 cDgCorazon wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On December 28 2012 18:26 cDgCorazon wrote:Orange:+ Show Spoiler +On December 28 2012 08:55 Orangeremi wrote:
Since that train seems to be going somewhere and scum seems fine with us voting Kick.
##Vote: shz
Chrom, if shz turns town I'm looking at you. Hopping off of FC wagon when it seemed to gain momentum was something I was looking for. This is sheep #1. His whole post says, “I’m a sheep, I’m voting for Shz. The shepherd is supposed to be in charge of me, so if things go wrong with this vote, I can just dump the blame on him”. That is basically how his vote played out. This is textbook scum play. What is one way scum stays out of the spotlight? Joining the bandwagon of someone who has a strong town read from many other players in the game. This does one of two things: Gets rid of someone that scum knows is town, which puts the town in an even worse position. Giving Orange a way out if the vote goes wrong. If Shz flipped town, Orange can just point the finger at Chrom and stay in the shadows while another townie gets lynched. He even admits that is what he wants to do: Show nested quote + Chrom, if shz turns town I'm looking at you. Hopping off of FC wagon when it seemed to gain momentum was something I was looking for.
Sheeping and not scumhunting are two tell-tale signs of scum. He doesn’t even try to defend himself when I directly call him out, he just ignores it and posts. We need to pressure him. He’s gotten away with this behavior so far because everyone else’s behavior was just so bad.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
