EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXXIII - Page 69
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shz
Germany2686 Posts
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shz
Germany2686 Posts
Again: The question should be: If our lynch flips town, are we certain that the other is scum? If our lynch flips scum, are we certain that the other is town and we can ignore him? | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
That being said, I'm not sure what else there is to say without FC responding to things. I'm pretty convinced on FC, much more so than Orange. Syl lynch is a bad idea for today, FC and Orange look worse. | ||
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shz
Germany2686 Posts
On December 30 2012 13:32 Chromatically wrote: I think that everyone agrees that the 1-1 thingy is possible or probable. I don't think that we should focus on it today, though. We can looks a associations and the like to find the second scum once we have a red flip, which we should focus on getting today. Let's try to lynch scum today rather than worry about lynching it tomorrow. That being said, I'm not sure what else there is to say without FC responding to things. I'm pretty convinced on FC, much more so than Orange. Syl lynch is a bad idea for today, FC and Orange look worse. Orange hasn't posted at all today. FC at least tried some. | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
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shz
Germany2686 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
General consensus seemed to have strongest suspicions on orange and FC, and a kick/orange/fc scumteam was at the forefront. Aquanim, Chrom both mentioned at some point that it is the simplest, most obvious solution. And I actually agree. But what if we're making a mistake, and one of orange/fc is actually really just a terrible terrible townie? Corazon has pointed out already: given the way orange and FC have played so far, if we simply continued to pile on huge pressure on them, they would not have readily or capably stood up as a townie, defended themselves, and made a case that would compel us to look elsewhere. Let's be clear about this. My predawn post unequivocally states: I am actually fairly convinced that FatChunk and Orangeremi are the most likely remaining scum, and that we saw very frazzled scum in mid to late D3 in the absence of kickstart. Occam's razor says this is the simple and obvious solution (yes, in spite of me raising the possibility that there is some complex masterplan behind it). But we need an environment where we are willing to listen to orange and/or FC, whatever they choose to step out and speak about. We must not drown out what they wish to say with continued accusations and arguments against them, and we cannot simply dismiss or shut out what they are trying to tell us. We've all seen their D2 and D3 play. If we pile on the pressure, they will simply clam up, and that is not going to help us. I am not saying that we should simply accept what they tell us. But give them a chance to speak, and think on it. Also think of it as insurance in case orange or FC turns out to be a mislynch -- at least, we'll have kept the discussion going in a useful direction. Right now, I still want to push both orange and FC to be lynched, in whichever order. But let's see what they have to say, shall we? At least, FatChunk has come out, and as you can see, I'm looking to get more from him. In particular, will he commit to a vote on orangeremi? If not, then who else is more suspicious? ----- I'll be back after lunch. | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
On December 30 2012 14:54 Chromatically wrote: If FC flips town, then Orange is probably the most likely, with Syl next. I think that a town FC is very unlikely, however. Well do we see if FC or Orange is town/scum first? | ||
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
On December 30 2012 14:54 Chromatically wrote: If FC flips town, then Orange is probably the most likely, with Syl next. I think that a town FC is very unlikely, however. err, if FC flips town, we only have one day left. It'd become 3-2 on the next day. | ||
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
But if in the case you do that it'd become 2-1, since I am not scum. (This is assuming Orange is though). | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
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shz
Germany2686 Posts
Okay. So if I understand your post correctly: You think FC and Orange are scum, but the 1-1 theory is there to provide for discussion before hopping on a wagon with 24h to go? I guess it does not matter much if we believe in the 1-1, as we are, at the moment, going to lynch one of them anyway. After that we will have more information (and the NK will clear up more too). If the one lynched is town, we may have to re-evaluate, but for now we should find the safest lynch. I'm leaning towards Orange atm, FC at least tried to do something. But we still have some time, so let's see what they contribute. If you are town: Defend yourself, contribute, and at least write a testament with your thoughts before you die. | ||
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FatChunk
Canada93 Posts
There were numerous posts by you before i changed my vote to sHz: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 07:25 Chromatically wrote: That's a good point. I think it's less likely though, given that Orange has voted FC before. Also, I think that Kickstart would have been a better bus candidate, given that he has 0 influence with the town. In fact, I think that this, along with his other scummy posting, is enough to warrant a shz lynch today: ##Unvote ##Vote: shz On December 28 2012 07:40 Chromatically wrote: He hasn't been scumhunting or even caring about the lynch. d1 he sheeped some cases, d2 he defended Omni and didn't even vote. Especially during d2, there's no way that he's honestly scumhunting but is unable to find a scumread to vote on d2. I'm on my phone, so I can't quote posts, but he's just very uninterested in who is lynched. On December 28 2012 08:18 Chromatically wrote: In fact, you can ignore the thing I posted. There's no reason for a townie to not care at all about the d2 lynch. No pushing, no voting, nothing at all. Not town behavior. Voteswitch time, everyone. You influenced my vote to be moved to shz. sHz was not caring about the lynch, he sheeps, and votes null. I was sheeping kick. They were both top scum reads to me and so I thought either would be a fine lynch to get either, especially with you backing that switch too. cake i can do that, sure. ##Vote: Orangeremi Regarding who my reads besides orange and syl? the rest are probably town then. Am I missing something? I am still a little suspicious of shz, kick could have easily attacked shz early to get shz far after he [kick] gets lynched for lurking. Will post once more with lots of time before the lynch, but it looks like its me or orangeremi. thus i will save my post on sylencia, shz, for the next days' discussion. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 30 2012 15:41 FatChunk wrote: Will post once more with lots of time before the lynch, but it looks like its me or orangeremi. thus i will save my post on sylencia, shz, for the next days' discussion. No, you may not survive till tonight, let alone tomorrow. We might lynch you yet, or you might be killed overnight, denying us the information. Give us your content on syl and shz NOW. If you are still around tomorrow and something changed, then you can update your views at that time. But everything you have, at this time, needs to come out now, and not later -- if you are actually town, there is nothing to be gained from holding back. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 30 2012 15:27 shz wrote: @cakepie: Okay. So if I understand your post correctly: You think FC and Orange are scum, but the 1-1 theory is there to provide for discussion before hopping on a wagon with 24h to go? Yes, and also as an insurance policy to make sure that we have information to work with in case one of them turns out to be a mislynch. No one should be trying to prove the 1-1 theory. It is not a case, it is a supposition, a platform to enable useful discussion. | ||
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
FC, you're being suspected. You've already got votes on you. And yet, you're still confident that you'll be around for the next day? You're not going to be killed off at night if you're town, because you act scummy as ever. But when you have information, you give it out to everyone, whether or not it's actually true or not. There is no reason why at this critical moment where we can get a massive lead for killing scum you should withhold any information. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 30 2012 13:24 cDgCorazon wrote: I kind of felt like the 1-1 theory seemed to be true. I honestly thought that we were going with it. I apologize for not being clear about the intentions behind the 1-1 hypothesis. I thought I made it clear in my predawn that kick+orange+FC was still the simple and obvious solution. Thank you very much for your Dec 20 8:37 post, too -- lest it seems underappreciated. ----- @ FatChunk On December 30 2012 12:33 cakepie wrote: you'll need to give more reads and build better justification for your cases -- I can understand if you feel that writing more on orange would be beating a dead horse, but what of syl? ----- @ all On December 30 2012 13:32 Chromatically wrote: I think that everyone agrees that the 1-1 thingy is possible or probable. I don't think that we should focus on it today, though. We can looks a associations and the like to find the second scum once we have a red flip, which we should focus on getting today. Let's try to lynch scum today rather than worry about lynching it tomorrow. Chrom is right (emphasis is mine). While we wait on more from FC, and anything at all from orange, let's not forget to work out who we should lynch first out of the two. Personally, I am setting myself a lynch-10h deadline to see what FC gives us -- he has promised: Will post once more with lots of time before the lynch And he'd better not try to ransom his life in exchange for the information he claims to have. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
On December 30 2012 16:49 cakepie wrote: @cDgCorazon I apologize for not being clear about the intentions behind the 1-1 hypothesis. I thought I made it clear in my predawn that kick+orange+FC was still the simple and obvious solution. Thank you very much for your Dec 20 8:37 post, too -- lest it seems underappreciated. @ all Chrom is right (emphasis is mine). While we wait on more from FC, and anything at all from orange, let's not forget to work out who we should lynch first out of the two. Personally, I am setting myself a lynch-10h deadline to see what FC gives us -- he has promised: And he'd better not try to ransom his life in exchange for the information he claims to have. Thanks! It actually took me like 3 hours (I was distracted a lot) to make that whole post. Maybe I'm putting too much time into this game =P My vote's on Orange still. The main reason was summed up by Shz when he said: On December 30 2012 15:27 shz wrote: I'm leaning towards Orange atm, FC at least tried to do something. But we still have some time, so let's see what they contribute. FC has at least given a half attempt to defend himself. More than what Orange has done so far. I do want to hear his suspicions though. | ||
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