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On December 29 2012 16:53 cakepie wrote:This is setup speculation. It is intended provide information that would help decide whether it is right to role claim or not. It is not intended to guide our continuing scumhunting discussion. + Show Spoiler +
7 players remain:
I see two most likely setup possibilities in my mind:
- 5 town vs 2 scum, with town RB and scum RB
or
- 4 town vs 2 scum vs SK, with town RB, scum RB and one more blue role (I see cop more likely than X-shot vig due to framer.)
Note 1: SK also aims to scumhunt early game, and wants to maintain town : mafia ratio within certain bounds while blending in.
Note 2: one kill in N3 could have been an incredibly patient and confident SK, or a successful RB blocking either scum KP or SK KP. Do not discount the possibility of scum RB blocking SK.
Remember, mafia start with the knowledge of alignments, but do not know the distribution of power roles to begin with. Thus far they have managed to take out mocsta, who stuck his neck out too far, but have subsequently gone after most threatening townies, who turned out to be VTs.
How effective have mafia been with their RB? And if we have a cop, did the framer make a difference?
The town PRs have an incredible amount of information, but we cannot squander this too easily.
We cannot afford to out the blues if we may need them still.
Likewise, it is important for PRs to really step up to the responsibility that comes with their role.
As long as we don't mislynch into blue, we'll be in good shape for tonight.
Caveat: we might also be in a different setup than the two I raised. so caution is still the best approach.
tldr: Is there a watertight plan to win with very high likelihood, in any eventuality, any setup, with any scumteam, with the information we have? If not, then it is not time to roleclaim yet.
I forgot one more possibility that looks balanced:
+ Show Spoiler +- 5 town vs 2 scum, with town RB and scum RB, and cop and godfather.
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On December 30 2012 16:54 cDgCorazon wrote:
Maybe I'm putting too much time into this game =P
You and me both, good sir. This game is an incredibly scary time sink.
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cake: There still needs to be jailkeeper though? Thought it was town, scum RB + jailer in this game at least.
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Mocsta, Isaac Newton Killed n1
Sir Issac Newton (Jailkeeper)
From OP
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Until FC reveals what he has:
##Unvote
##Vote: FatChunk
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Votecount:
Orangeremi (2): cDgCorazon, FatChunk
FatChunk (3): shz, Chromatically, Sylencia
Not voting (2): Orangeremi, cakepie
Currently, FatChunk is set to be lynched! ~12 hours remaining in day 1.
Please PM any of your friendly neighborhood hosts if your vote is counted incorrectly.
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Currently, Orangeremi is set to be lynched! ~12 hours remaining in day 1.
That can't be right, FC has more votes.
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On December 30 2012 21:08 cakepie wrote:That can't be right, FC has more votes.
Yea youre right. I'm tired T.T
Fixed.
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Onyl a few hours before bed time, might not wake up in time for the end of day, so if anyone wants to discuss stuff, now's the time.
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I'm here a bit before bed too. Anything to ask me?
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On December 30 2012 15:41 FatChunk wrote:@Chrom There were numerous posts by you before i changed my vote to sHz: + Show Spoiler +On December 28 2012 07:25 Chromatically wrote:
That's a good point. I think it's less likely though, given that Orange has voted FC before. Also, I think that Kickstart would have been a better bus candidate, given that he has 0 influence with the town.
In fact, I think that this, along with his other scummy posting, is enough to warrant a shz lynch today:
##Unvote
##Vote: shz On December 28 2012 07:40 Chromatically wrote:
He hasn't been scumhunting or even caring about the lynch. d1 he sheeped some cases, d2 he defended Omni and didn't even vote. Especially during d2, there's no way that he's honestly scumhunting but is unable to find a scumread to vote on d2.
I'm on my phone, so I can't quote posts, but he's just very uninterested in who is lynched. On December 28 2012 08:18 Chromatically wrote:
In fact, you can ignore the thing I posted. There's no reason for a townie to not care at all about the d2 lynch. No pushing, no voting, nothing at all. Not town behavior.
Voteswitch time, everyone. You influenced my vote to be moved to shz. sHz was not caring about the lynch, he sheeps, and votes null. I was sheeping kick. They were both top scum reads to me and so I thought either would be a fine lynch to get either, especially with you backing that switch too. cake i can do that, sure. ##Vote: OrangeremiRegarding who my reads besides orange and syl? the rest are probably town then. Am I missing something? I am still a little suspicious of shz, kick could have easily attacked shz early to get shz far after he [kick] gets lynched for lurking. Will post once more with lots of time before the lynch, but it looks like its me or orangeremi. thus i will save my post on sylencia, shz, for the next days' discussion.
That was almost all stuff that I had said before, on N1. The sheeping stuff has been out there, not caring about the lynch has too. The only new thing that I presented was his lack of a vote on d2.
You still haven't explained why you think that shz's post promoting lynching for information is scummy after you proposed lynching Omni for information.
This feels too much to me like scum searching for justification to justify his artificial voteswitch.
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I do request that people try to be here about 30 min before the lynch for any eventualities.
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I really really hope there is no SK in this game. I can only see the game ending in MYLO in that case.
The possibility of SK is the only thing preventing a solution to the game at this point. If we know that it is 5:2 and not 4:2:1, a foolproof solution to the game should be possible.
If there is SK and we convince mafia team to concede, does the game go to 4 town vs 1 SK, or do we still have to lynch the mafia one by one (while still threatened by mafia NK if left unblocked)?
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If there is SK and we convince mafia team to concede, does the game go to 4 town vs 1 SK, or do we still have to lynch the mafia one by one (while still threatened by mafia NK if left unblocked)?
I have been told that the question is not kosher. Sorry!
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On December 29 2012 08:54 Aquanim wrote:
I'd prefer to lynch Orange first, if only because both he and Cakepie were roleblocked night two - assuming that there is one town RB and one scum RB, and that scum wouldn't fake a RB on themselves, a red flip on Orange confirms Cakepie town.
##Vote: orangeremi
This is where I shall park my vote for the night, in case I oversleep. Don't take it too seriously. Let's see what FC has to say (although he still has yet to come in again, and it is lynch-7hrs already)
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On December 31 2012 01:20 cakepie wrote:
I really really hope there is no SK in this game. I can only see the game ending in MYLO LYLO in that case.
EBWOP: LYLO, not MYLO.
Best case, we need 2 lynches to kill 2 mafia, in that time SK kills 2 town, we end up at 2 town vs 1 SK.
A cop may not be helpful, SK could have investigation immunity.
Off to bed for real this time
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There's no SK. An SK withholding his hits every night would be ridiculously stupid. He could have won by now.
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Or I guess if the nk-carrier was blocked every night... which is very unlikely. I think that we should assume no SK.
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On December 31 2012 02:45 Chromatically wrote:
Or I guess if the nk-carrier was blocked every night... which is very unlikely. I think that we should assume no SK.
Well if there isn't anyone who hasn't been night blocked every night, if everyone's rb claims are true. So we should rule SK out.
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Okay Chrom theres no way to give new information on players that have been drilled to death. sHz has been playing scummy all game, and I don't need to elaborate on that any more. sHz could still be scum. I am not convinced that kick was playing so passively as scum, and the interaction with shz could have been a ploy. But he is my 3rd scumread which could be irrelelvent, so on to my #2.
So I said I'd give something on sylencia. I don't know how this guy has been allowed to lurk for as long as he had, only to come forward when the scumhunt begins to target the lurkers. This happens roughly @ December 24th and on
Early Game:
+ Show Spoiler +On December 19 2012 11:55 Sylencia wrote:Not saying I'm always going to be busy, I was just stating that you might consider me a lurker for now but that's just due to the schedule I have over the 2 days in which this period runs. I wasn't using it as an excuse to try exclude me from a vote.
-says he will be afk, and may be considered a lurker
+ Show Spoiler +On December 20 2012 14:05 Sylencia wrote:
In the case of voting for Corazon - this is the easy path for me, I can simply sheep and jump onto the corazon train but I don't know if that's the right way either. He was targeted early, but this was due to the lack of reads at the time and I think that scum have jumped onto the opportunity to get someone out easy, and honestly to me the thing with Corazon is that while he is defensive, he is still clear with what he is saying and is direct in replying to things which are targetted at him.
Downside is he did make a slip, and it most definitely could've been subconciously done and I don't know if I should overlook that or not - since I learned from last game you should go with the most obvious pick from the most obvious reads. I chose to ignore it last time and I paid the price by losing us the game essentially.
Fatchunk I still have no idea about, I read his filter but I didn't get much from it.
I really hate this, but for now I am leaning towards Corazon, since I don't want to be ignoring 'obvious' tells like I did last game.
##Vote cDgCorazon
I can still change my vote for the next couple of hours before I leave but at the moment this is where I stand
-sheeps threesr, then corazon (the easy lynches). In this post he basically says he doesn't have a scumread on corazon, and then votes him anyway because he wants to sheep. In the post right after that one he blames it solely on corazon's scumslip.
Mid Game
+ Show Spoiler +On December 22 2012 21:10 Sylencia wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2012 17:43 Aquanim wrote:
@Sylencia Who do you think you would have voted for if you'd been here near the day 1 lynch? I would say I would stick to Cora, but it's really hard to say objectively since it's already in the past and there's some bias now as to my thought process.
-He still claims that corazon would be his day 1 vote after the death of Mocsta. This post seems really safe to me, and shows that he has no reads.
-This is followed up by lots of maybe reads, being pretty sure about something, etc.
-He is basically doing, in the mid game, the same thing that everyone was persecuting shz for.
+ Show Spoiler +On December 24 2012 02:54 Sylencia wrote:
Why are you STILL bandwagoning onto someone else rather than voting on someone you think is scum?
At the very least, why are you not at least making a case on Cora rather than making these claims and leaving them be?
Your day 1 vote was apparently a pressure vote which turned into believing what people said., but now we're on Day 2 and been defending yourself against the pressure laid against you and Chrom - however unlikely the links were - but you never thought to bring up any more points against Cora, rather you just say that he is scum and vote for who everyone else is/was again?
##vote Omni
-Seizes the opportunity to "put" omni under suspicion. Claims he has a <100% scumread on omni. Then cakepie's post about omni. Sylencia then changes his vote to omni. The reason I think this is odd is because he is attacking someone for bandwagonning instead of voting for your scumread.
Late Game
+ Show Spoiler +On December 26 2012 12:49 Sylencia wrote:
Yamato seemed to back up my thoughts on Kickstart playing the opposite game to his usual, which is not something I would expect - so for now my vote goes to Kickstart since he was my 2nd most suspicious player after Omni.
##Vote Kickstart
-suspicious of Kickstart based on a two-sentence post saying he thinks kick is supicious: [spoiler]He says, "Kickstart: Hard to say, since it's a complete opposite to last game where he posted a lot and was very active, he did make a case, but it didn't really cover too much new information it was the same as what Aqua already said, just reflavoured."[spoiler] Then he claims that yamato comes on with fresh eyes and convinced him of kick's guilt. Isn't this a little bit odd? It's like he notices the town view moving in one direction, then banks on one of his previous one-liner reads that would satisfy the equation.
Recent day or so:
He votes orangeremi as his highest scum read. Then he easily switches to me because town is leaning that way too.
Basically I think Sylencia is a hypocrite, and he is playing way too safe. He has no original scumreads and is a heavy bandwagonner. Consider his votes:
D1:Corazon
D2:Omni
D3:Kick
Aside from corazon, has voted for each lynched player. The Corazon lynch wasn't taking off yet he decided not to switch his vote. Spag, most likely one of sylencia's town reads, was lynched.
Now I know this doesnt really mean anything but it's worth mentioning his targets.
I guess it seems like he hasn't been examined hard enough and has been allowed to fly under the radar. Sure, he hasn't had any ridiculously scummy plays, but isnt that what mafia goes for? It's the subtle things that matter.
These days, all the flak has gone to me and orangeremi and he's happy to just sit there and lynch his teammate. It would be smart for mafia to bus either myself or orangeremi, because if either one of us town the other one is screwed. I can tell you right now that the 1-1 theory is probably true, but my opinion means little at this point, right?
BTW. I repeat; was role blocked last night and the kill went down. So either A) i'm not scum, or B) One of me and remi, or neither of us are scum and the town RB chose the wrong player to roleblock. In this case, look for the last scum(s). Hence my post.
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My point was that Kickstart was your top read above shz. But then you changed your vote based on things that you had already seen, in N1. If shz's sheeping convinced you that he was scum, he would have been your top read for D3. But he wasn't, Kick was.
Your stuff on Syl is hypocritical. You accuse Syl of pushing the easy lynch of threesr, which was something that you did early game. You say that he is altering his reads based on the direction that the town is moving in, which is exactly what you do (Omni, shz switch, Orange). You accuse him of having no original scumreads, something that holds true for you as well. You say that he only comes forward when lurkers are targeted, but you only come forward when you are targeted. Then you say that he is a hypocrite, but don't point out anything hypocritical? I'm saying this not to invalidate your case against Syl, but to point out that your own points about why Syl is scummy apply to you as well.
On December 31 2012 04:46 FatChunk wrote:
...
Aside from corazon, has voted for each lynched player. The Corazon lynch wasn't taking off yet he decided not to switch his vote. Spag, most likely one of sylencia's town reads, was lynched.
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What does this mean?
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EPT
