EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXXIII - Page 72
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 31 2012 08:30 cDgCorazon wrote: So if you feel that way, do you think that the 1-1 theory is true? And if you do think the 1-1 theory is true, who out of the other 5 not up for lynching today would you suspect the most of being scum? Is this directed at me? | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 31 2012 08:30 cDgCorazon wrote: EBWOP: Above post was directed at Chrom. Okay, not for me. | ||
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
Sorry, I wasn't expecting another post so quickly. | ||
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FatChunk
Canada93 Posts
@cake Well I've been claiming town all along. so yes, I am VT. | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
The 1-1 theory is probably true. Orange and FC were roleblocked on consecutive nights, but there was a second roleblock on both nights. This means that neither of them are the scum RB, so someone else must be. This of course assumes no fakeclaims, so it's not foolproof, but I think that it's probable. If FC flips scum, I'll look at you. If Orange is scum, I'll look at Syl. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
----- ##Vote: FatChunk Okay, FatChunk, here's the deal. If you are VT and will claim so honestly, I might be able to save you from the lynch with pure logical deduction and zero case analysis -- if you are not lying. If you are lying, then you deserve to die anyway. If you are going to claim something else -- I already saw it a mile away as the last possible, logical scum play by kick/orange/fc scumteam. That claim, coming so last minute is going to look ridiculously scummy. It may extend your life, but it will not help you win as scum. Scum FC may only seek to help an SK win, if there is one -- mafia team kingmaker, possibly. Town FC playing like this? bad play. [edit @ all This claim does not automatically make FC scum, it just will look very scummy coming so late. Don't preclude the possibility of FC actually being town. (Anyway, town very likely wins anyway as long as there is no SK.) ] I am playing safe and looking for the win if possible, trying to preserve a little insurance against the small remaining possibility of SK in the game, even though general consensus is there is likely to be none. And if there is no SK in the game, kick/orange/fc is already guaranteed to lose. FATCHUNK: What is the last card in your hand? Out with it. | ||
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
On December 31 2012 08:35 Chromatically wrote: @Corazon The 1-1 theory is probably true. Orange and FC were roleblocked on consecutive nights, but there was a second roleblock on both nights. This means that neither of them are the scum RB, so someone else must be. This of course assumes no fakeclaims, so it's not foolproof, but I think that it's probable. If FC flips scum, I'll look at you. If Orange is scum, I'll look at Syl. I'll wait to contest this until after the flip. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 31 2012 08:33 FatChunk wrote: @cake Well I've been claiming town all along. so yes, I am VT. Okay, assuming that roleblocked claims are true: TOWN RB - If you detect any roleblock claims to be false, you need to step up and lynch the liar. - if the Town RB has a name starting with C -- you need to step forward and save FatChunk now. - if the Town RB does not have a name starting with C... sorry, fatchunk, you lied. Explanation coming soon. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + N1: 22 09:08 cake 22 13:36 omni 23 08:45 shz N2: 26 09:16 cake 26 18:51 orange N3: 29 15:39 syl 30 04:32 fatchunk General consensus in this game is to lynch liars -- there is no place for lying townies in a newbie game. Townies have no incentive to lie about roleblocked claims. Scum cannot afford to lie about roleblocked claims -- they could be called out for it by town RBs. ----- (0) mocsta is a jailer, omni is VT (1) N2 -> either cake and orange are both RBs, or both are not RBs. (2) N3 -> either syl and fatchunk are both RBs, or both are not RBs. (3) (0)+(1)+N1 -> both cake and shz are not RBs (4) (1)+(3) -> orange is not RB. (5) (3+4) = {cake, orange, shz} are not RBs. (6) (5)+(2) -> the only possible townRB + scumRB pairs are (syl & fatchunk) and (chrom & corazon) (H1) FatChunk claims VT to avoid being lynched (H1)+(6) only a town RB claim from chrom and corazon can save FatChunk now. ------ (more in a bit) | ||
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
On another note, RBs both start with C cakepie? seeing as how only 2 people in this town have not been roleblocked and there doesn't seem to be any roleblocked roleblockers.... | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
The sole danger is that they are SK fakeclaiming Town RB, to keep mafia alive a while longer, and playing for SK win. I will use variables C1 and C2 here since it could be either way round: Between Chrom and Corazon, let's say C1 claims Town RB, but C2 smells a rat. C2 as a townie must counterclaim honestly. I am betting against Chrom+Corazon being 1 mafia 1 SK, so this should be safe. | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 31 2012 08:50 Chromatically wrote: I don't follow your logic, cakepie. Why would an RB claim save FC? Because under the reasonable assumption that roleblocked claims are all truth, then for FC to be VT, then the two roleblockers must be chrom+corazon. If roleblocked claims contain faked, then all bets are off. But I don't think that is the case. | ||
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
My goals at night were to find the person who was most likely to be scum, but was either hiding in the shadows away from suspicion, or was good and safely disguised as a townie. My roleblocks were as follows: N1: Shz- He had lurked most of Day 1, I thought that maybe I could catch him before he was able to start doing real damage, but my roleblock was ineffective. N2: Cake. This time, I tried a different approach. Cake was someone who had led the town and was doing a very good job directing discussion. I thought that perhaps he could be a really good mafia in disguise. However, this was ineffective as well. N3: Syl. I tried to go back to RBing someone under the radar to see if I could catch a scum. This was unsuccessful as well. Maybe I RBd a scum and they just didn't happen to make the kill that night. I'm not saying I am an effective roleblocker, but I am saying that I'm town RB. I didn't roleblock FC. I didn't want to call bs on his claim because I did not want to reveal my role, but now that it's out in the open, it might as well be known. ##Vote: FatChunk | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 31 2012 08:53 Chromatically wrote: Why does this say anything about FC being Goon? VT, not Goon. | ||
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
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