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Newbie Mini Mafia XXIV - Page 47
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
First thing's first: Obvious and DarthPunk both claimed RB day 3. There is one confirmed scum RB-er, but with two RB's that leaves a possible town RB. So here's my request: Town RB-er, block Z-Boson tonight. I will be describing my reasoning and reads in a bit, but for right now: just do it. Everyone should agree I am all but confirmed town right now, so please trust me on this. My reads and explanation will come in in a bit, but trust me when I say I have good reason to believe Z-Boson is scum. He's my top read right now. | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
Solar/Golbat or Solar/Z-Boson are my scum team picks. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Going through my scum-reads, one by one: DarthPunk: Town. I'm most confident in my read on him, to the point where I'd laugh pretty hard if he was scum as I would have been completely fooled. YourHarry fishing to see if him and I were masons strengthens my read. Stutters: Town read. Semi-lurker, tunnels YourHarry days 2 and 3, on two occasions now "running to store and checking filter" with no followup. My take on him is that it is pretty obvious scum wasn't ready to bus YourHarry on day 2 given how easy Thrawn was to lynch. So while as scum he could have been trying to distance himself from YourHarry I feel it's unlikely. Golbat: Mega-lurker, has all but disappeared, kind of wish he was modkilled tbh. Originally a town read based off YourHarry vote on day 3. However, I neglected to remember how strong of a position I was in on day 3, so YourHarry's early vote could have in fact been a bus. Everything I saw originally indicated that YourHarry was gearing for a mislynch, but I forgot YourHarry's weak soft-defense of Golbat based on a night kill. This is highly inconsistent with everything else he'd said about Golbat at that point, and leads me to believe it is actually possible YourHarry and Golbat are both scum. Additionally, YourHarry seems to have given Golbat an abundance of special attention (defending his weak case points against YourHarry, and a soft anti-lurker crusade starting even day one) for a good deal of the game which doesn't make any sense given the level of Golbat's activity. Add to that he had to look at Golbat's filter after I pressured him on day 3, which makes no sense given how hard he was pushing the case. + Show Spoiler + I have one more thing to add here, which will be included in a follow-up post shortly. Z-Boson and SolarSail: I do put these two together as I feel one or the other is likely scum, but not both. Z-Boson's scummy behavior is related to the last minute vote switch request. I don't feel I need to spend much time discussing how ridiculous this was. Further, he conveniently FOS's me on day 3 right after my vote switch from Golbat to YourHarry. Again, this felt pretty ridiculous considering how established I had made myself as town. I don't visualize a townie doing that, especially in MYLO when everyone had to consolidate to lynch a scum. Then later that day, there is YourHarry's FOS on Z-Boson, who he had previously ignored pretty much all game. Others had made weaker arguments against him than Z-Boson's (in fact Stutters made the same "meta"-argument if I recall...), and he would let them slide. I don't understand an FOS here. It feels like a scum trying to distance himself from his buddy before he dies. Now onto Solarsail: There is so little this guy has actually contributed, but "sheeping" isn't inherantly scum behavior. The refusal to share his reads definitely makes him look scummier though. The only reason, honestly, I would conclude he's town is Z-Boson's last minute vote switch play. Z-Boson was like "I think they're both scum," but then tries really hard for a last minute vote switch. I mean come on... A vote switch only makes sense for scum if SolarSail is town. And in that sense, it's either Z-Boson or SolarSail. And I feel Z-Boson's behavior is far scummier, to the point that between the two Z-Boson is scum. Add to that that pretty much everyone is okay with a SolarSail lynch right now, and I think SolarSail's town (albeit a terrible one). Obvious: Getting a read on Obvious is the hardest thing for me to do right now. He's content to push for one lynch candidate at a time without really sharing his reads on anyone else. And his history in the game has been incredibly short. If I am to look at his incredibly lurky predecessor, he posts outside this thread some really ridiculous stuff that obviously is going to get him banned (he even gets warned first before doing it again). Town was in a pretty weak position when this happened, and I can't imagine him ragequitting as scum when scum was in such a strong position. I believe he got banned to leave game without consequences, and that he did so as a frustrated townie too lazy to defend himself. Therefore, I believe Obvious is town right now. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
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Solarsail
United Kingdom538 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On August 24 2012 05:35 Solarsail wrote: What is the current condition on a Golbat modkill? he won't be modkilled unless he doesn't post/vote by end of Day 4. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Upon first asking Z-Boson for his reads: On August 24 2012 01:38 Z-BosoN wrote: [/b]-snip- Now, of course, he is in phase 3 He has assumed a VERY defensive position as soon as YH was lynched: No one had even said anything yet, and he assumes an exaggerated defensive stance. This sounds too much like a scum that is feeling cornered. What does he mean, by "if Golbat somehow flips town"? Is he expecting the nk to go on Golbat? Also, since I feel Golbat is most likely town, this could be a huge [u]scumslip -snip- But then he says: On August 24 2012 03:04 Z-BosoN wrote: @goodkarma I have no logical arguments for why I think Golbat is town. He doesn't care about the game, doesn't show any interest in posting, and the few posts that he has that I can analyze I deem are pretty neutral. He could just as well be scum or town, so let me correct myself: I have a neutral read on him, but think he is town because I feel Solar is scum and made a scumslip. Obvious has been under the radar, but he seems incredibly suspicious to me as well. This is clearly a scumslip. He is right that there is no logical argument to think that Golbat is town, but he decides to do it anyway. He then backs off his read and decides Golbat's a "neutral" read. Between this and the remainder of my case, it's pretty clear we've got our two remaining scum. | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
On August 24 2012 05:39 goodkarma wrote: As promised, another piece of evidence pointing to a Z-Boson / Golbat scumteam: Upon first asking Z-Boson for his reads: But then he says: This is clearly a scumslip. He is right that there is no logical argument to think that Golbat is town, but he decides to do it anyway. He then backs off his read and decides Golbat's a "neutral" read. Between this and the remainder of my case, it's pretty clear we've got our two remaining scum. Z-Boson then Golbat? I will accept that. You've got a decent case there for Z-Boson/Golbat and it's a lot better than my nitpicking over SolarSail's play. | ||
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Solarsail
United Kingdom538 Posts
I thought Golbat was an auto-modkill up until this page, didn't see he came back briefly. Golbat on YH: YourHarry, I don't know what to think about you. You always post like you have dain bramage, so the only "meta" I can pick up from you is that you're playing in this game. That being said, your "mason theory" is understandable, and i'm willing to give you a pass for sounding kind of scummy, provided you don't pull anything like that again. Not liking the implications of "giving you a pass..." followed up by ##FoS YourHarry His play has been the flippiest and the floppiest. That usually means intentionally sowing confusion in the thread, as people have to follow his logic back and forth to make any sense of what he says. I thought he gave him a pass? There's no accusation of some specific new behaviour to justify reversing the earlier statement. | ||
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Solarsail
United Kingdom538 Posts
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
I wish you would have contributed more earlier, but I'm glad you're here. Keep it coming  @Obvious: More analysis please! I spent a lot of time coming to my conclusions. You can do better than a 2-line response. I know what you're capable of!  | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
On August 24 2012 06:12 goodkarma wrote: @SolarSail: I wish you would have contributed more earlier, but I'm glad you're here. Keep it coming @Obvious: More analysis please! I spent a lot of time coming to my conclusions. You can do better than a 2-line response. I know what you're capable of! I'm on a sort of crunch time with the vote happening in my other game and getting ready to leave for the gym, but I am glad you know I am capable of more. Just to be clear so I don't go in the wrong direction, you want me to play iSpy with Z-Boson before night ends? | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
I understand you have two games, but please contribute more when you have time, and preferably soon. The town could use the direction from the quality cases I know you can write. So in so many words, yes. | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
Then crazy speculative post about the NKs that got caught up in the rest of the WIFOM of the D1-2 madness. Also in that post: + Show Spoiler + On August 19 2012 05:16 Z-BosoN wrote: My take on thrawn2112's situation My certain conclusion, based on the rest of this post is this: By golly, thrawn is a very very VERY bad player. If you read my analysis on the NK's and on GK's post, you'll see that no matter if he is scum or vigi or just regular townie, he is playing this very badly. I just can't pinpoint with extreme certainty whether he is a very bad scum or a very bad townie. I have a very strong inclination on a bad scum, because a scum thrawn who would kill mkfuba to try to escape in some WIFOM manner would seem to me less stupid than a Vigi thrawn, who with already so much pressure on him (before the nk i mean), would waste his ONLY bullet on such a CRAPPY hunch with so LITTLE evidence. What I'm going to do now is read more carefully the DarthPunk x Thrawn exchange, which seemed to me a little edgy, and will see what sort of conclusions can come from this with a thrawn lynch. I haven't gone through DarthPunk's filter yet and I try to see if his conviction on thrawn is as clear as goodkarma's. First, however, I will update my D1 suspicions on YourHarry, because his posting, however more frequent and more detailed, still seems to be filled with trashy talk and crappy arguments. Anyways, due to what I have stated earlier, I think the best option right now is: ##Vote thrawn2112 Okay, so during that day of the vote for Thrawn, when Thrawn tries to make a case against "Zobalt" (lol) for lurking, Z-Boson just shits on him for it. Like literally, in the thread, drops trou and puts a Cleveland Steamer right on Thrawn. He's never looked at the possibility that Ochrow (now, me) could be bad town. Here's the YH bus taking place: + Show Spoiler + On August 20 2012 12:25 Z-BosoN wrote: All right guys, some debriefing should take place. I agree that we shouldn't back off during the night. It is crucial we get it right this time. Let's see what we have: YourHarry Extremely weird player. My main theory against him was that he was trying to do a lame bus on thrawn. Granted as thrawn was indeed vigi, this is not the case. However, his posts and comments generally are inconsistent, lack explanations, and keep changing. His posts are a diarrhea of WIFOM that I've decided are only here to confuse us with its vagueness, lack of clarity, and lack of purpose. Observe: Mega power WIFOM. What is this supposed to implicate? Useless garbage. He keeps babbling, and doesn't make a point. How in anyway is this post helping town? And we keep going: What is this supposed to mean? Is he a scum that wants us to think this or is he a townie that wants us to think that he is thinking... oh wait, WIFOM. This statement means CRAP. ... and more .... Crappety crap crap CRAP. He is randomly throwing around suspicions and not committing to anything. This in no conceivable way helps town. Scumslip? How does he suddenly know that thrawn is not scum? Oh, that's right, he decided thrawn isn't scum with his brilliant and well thought-out argument, quoted above. I'm sure we can agree that his posts don't help the town and scream scum. Even though there was strong evidence that thrawn and YH were scum, due to the way they were playing it D1, I am still inclined to think he is scum. This requires much more thought, as we will have to be certain that we lynch a scum in the next day. Jhuyt He is a quiet and lurky player. He mentions possibilities, without compromise, and doesn't take a stance on anything. Bases himself off completely off of someone else's arguments, and announces he will have to leave. He then makes complains about how wishy-washy YourHarry is, says it is urgent that we lynch him, and starts to make shallow arguments on GK: But still considering YourHarry's wishy-washyness more scummy. Gets attacked by thrawn, who basically states the same things I'm saying right now, and is defended with weak and contentless posts. He simply doesn't take a solid stance on anyone (except maybe for YH). He's generally much more lurkier and gives off too few to work with. Golbat Beastly Lurker. Joined on the thrawn bandwagon and disappeared. We should have lynched him a long time ago. This makes me understand why lurker policy needs to be so strong. If he was a civilian before, then we would be down a lurking civilian who was not helping at all. Now, however, we cannot afford another misslynch, and have to be more careful. But since he has barely any posts, it will be very hard to determine for sure what he is. goodkarma and DarthPunk I wanted to make sure that I wasn't skipping any details on the non-obvious choices. I've noticed some weird behavior on GK, which I've already mentioned. Since I've already gone through thrawn's filter, I can understand where GK could have found some reason to back off of thrawn. I don't think he is scum, as I can't think of why a scum would go ahead and say I'M SURE HES GUILTY, to backing off entirely. Scum generally take hesitant postures that lack commitment and conviction. I've read DarthPunk's filter carefully and wasn't able to detect anything too suspicious or compromising, as he has been making accusations and backing them up with well explained arguments. Also, both him and goodkarma have been making tons of pro-town and meaningful accusations. If one of them is mafia, it is not in this round that we will be able to lynch them unless we can pick up on something not yet noted. Stutters and Obvious to come. I'm sleepy and have to wake up early tomorrow. Please, be active, let me know what you think of this post and contribute your own ideas and suspicions as well. Finally after two days of mislynches, the scummiest-acting player in the game has his time come. Now we have a vote for YH. Not before when Z-Boson took issue with almost everything YH said, but after a vocal townie (Shady) and an almost confirmed townie (Thrawn) have died. Somehow Shady Sands and Thrawn were more scummy looking to Z-Boson than YH for two days, meanwhile a scum YH was shitting up the thread with clutter and opportunistic rolehunting. How is it a bus? Because it YH was as suspicious to Z-Boson for the first two days, he would have voted accordingly. But he NEVER DID. YH left things to pick up all over the place that, in the context of his meta and general playstyle could have been considered null tells. I think it was probably a lot of willful ignorance on everyone's part to let YH get away with madness for so long. + Show Spoiler + On August 22 2012 04:41 Z-BosoN wrote: @Stutters He has been fishing roles all game? I don't remember this, can you please find where? The only thing I can recall is him interpreting a dubious thrawn quote to say why he thinks thrawn is blue. You basically said what's been said all game. YH uses WIFOM, is inconsistent, keeps changing his mind without specifying why. This to me is very scummy, as I've made clear for quite some time. But I will one-up this argument, I think I found something that, in my opinion will give a strong case against him. Case against YourHarry I will not go over again how stupid and confusing and useless his posting is, how that looks scummy, etc. Ladies and gentlemen, the first thing YH says: I am not sure which meta I will choose this game .I am not sure which meta I will choose this game .I am not sure which meta I will choose this game .He clearly indicated that he wants to follow a certain meta. Apparently, he has already decided which one it is. He is thriving on confusion. Look at some of his quotes from previous games: + Show Spoiler + Release, I am not Grush. I didn't particularly find lazer monkey's post scummy. This is a newbie game. He is simply providing some guidelines on what townies should avoid - since (I assume) that his previous games have been tainted by vanilla towns claiming power roles. BTW, I am not OMGUSing Jingle. I just find it difficult to understand why he finds me scummy, since I think I explained myself and answered all of his questions. When someone is focusing his accusation on a player based on reasonable evidence, that someone could be town or scum. But when someone is stubborn about his accusation on a player, even after the accused player adequately explained himself, I think that someone is likely to be scum. Maybe he is not satisfied with my answers. If so, Jingle, please tell me what you still think I am scum. Here, someone may question whether my initial vote against Hopeless also makes me scummy for above reason. But as I explained, I don't particularly find him scummy and my initial attempt to incite responses from him and others did partially succeed - mostly in the forms of accusations toward me. ##Unvote ##Vote Jingle Release: I maintain that it was not an OMGUS battle, at least from my perspective. I had valid reason, at least from what little was available at the time, to suspect Jingle. And if Jingle is scum, my quick reconciliation is not necessarily scummy. At best, it's WIFOM. One can argue that scums would be hesitant to dismiss each other's scuminess, in fear that 1) obvious buddying may make both of them suspicious, exactly how you are suspecting both of us 2) other's scum flip will incriminate them. Either way, my actions on end of day 1 to place the one of the deciding votes on Hopeless (especially when I previously expressed my opinion that I didn't think hopeless was particularly scummy, I could have easily justified my vote against someone else) and my willingness to vote against Jingle now should make me unlikely to be scum. Also, in regards to miller providing a difficulty for town victory: miller counters mafia role cop and detective is soft countered by miller. Mafia role cop is gone and detective is still alive. So, miller's value to town is at extreme minimum. Of course, if detective was nonexistant, miller would be as good as vanilla townie. The reason why medic shouldn't claim is obvious. Night2, the scum would roleblock medic and nightkill the detective. Medic role claiming does not allow us to gather any additional information on alignment of other players. However, this means that we must come up with a consensus on who we want to lynch way prior to the deadline so that medic does have a chance to roleclaim if somehow he gets picked to be lynched. The reason for power role claiming immediately if they received the positive result is also evident. This is because what we will do today would be clearly decided: lynch whoever received the positive result. This also allows medic to anonymously protect the powerrole who got the positive result. The reason for claiming in order is because we don't want two power roles to reveal their identity unless it gives us additional information. This prevents second power role role claiming just in case they targeted the same player at night. I think detective claiming first makes sense, because it is a more important role - so this allows medic to protect him at night. This is some quotes from his previous game as townie. Notice the difference? He still throws information around a bit, but notice how it is toned down and how much more reasonable he seems. One of the first things I have said in this game is that analyzing meta is weak and doesn't constitute arguments. However, YourHarry has been constantly playing the meta game, and even said so himself in the beggining of the game. He has decided he wants to be as confusing as possible, as random, as wishy-washy as he can. Another thing that I noticed is generally not done is analyzing the nk's. Oh, Jhuyt just died, but he was such a strong scum suspect. O well, WIFOM, scum wants us to think that blah blah blah. Not in YourHarry's case. The only consistent thing he's done is be confusing. I'm sure we can all agree with that. I raise now two points: 1) Why would this be the meta to go for a town YourHarry? Isn't it weird how much better his play was as townie in past games? Why would town Harry want to be as confusing as possible? 2) Jhuyt nk was confusing as hell. This entirely fits YH's profile this game. I cannot for the life of me come up with a better reason to kill JHuyt other than just try to confuse town. Since YH right now is confusion in person, this raises an uncanny coincidence. But Z-BosoN! 2) is WIFOM and analyzing meta is weak! Well, imaginary doubting friend, I don't think that this applies here. YH is strictly playing a meta game, and not ONCE did he abandon it. He's drowning in WIFOM, but I doubt that he would have considered this when deciding who a scum YH would want to kill, because up until now, all we've done is analyze the garbage he jams on his keyboard, but not the overall picture. Let's stop wasting time trying to think what a scum Harry would do, and think more about how a scum Harry would act. So there it is folks, I think this makes a lot of sense, and should give you one more powerful reason as to why YH is SCUM!. Think about it and tell me what you guys think. I think this is the best option right now, I can't think of a stronger reason to lynch someone else. ##Vote YourHarry THEN HE DOES A 180!: + Show Spoiler + On August 23 2012 07:58 Z-BosoN wrote: Well, let's see who is present. All of me, Obvious, you and Darthpunk are present. All of us still have one hour to switch. Are we sure we want to go through with YH? Emotions aside (I've been ranting against him and his posting all game, basically), the more I think about it, the more doubt I have. Especially considering how wishy-washy thrawn also was, and how much circumstantial evidence made him look guilty. Take back the votes on YH? He doesn't even wait for a consensus and to make sure everyone is around, just balls-out unvotes: + Show Spoiler + On August 23 2012 08:25 Z-BosoN wrote: Well, most certainly one of us is scum, but as far as I know, we agreed to follow suit. I suggest we all unvote, discuss, and vote again, as we still have 40 minutes. If the scums don't follow suit and don't unvote, it will be clear who they are, they would certainly not risk it. I don't necessarily agree with this choice. YourHarry has a ton of shit, but he has a lot of pro-town posts. I read Obvious' case and DarthPunk's case on him, and I have to agree, he certainly looks scummy as hell. His play is even more ridiculous than YH. Then I read my case on YourHarry, and your case again. What obvious said made me retrospect, because the type of evidence YH is getting lynched for is almost identical the type of evidence that thrawn was, happenstance arguments. YES WE DO HAVE TIME. I propose this, all of us here now unvote, and if, at 8:50, not all of us are unvoted, we go ahead and vote for YH. By 8:55 all our votes are made, to the same person discussed. Essentially it is up to you, GK, because without you we won't be able to switch votes, and I strongly feel taht we should. Think about what has been said, and think quickly. Is YH the right choice?? ##Unvote TLDR: The guy who has been laying into YH the entire game has a change of heart just before the deadline. There's no, I repeat, NO town reasoning for this at all. | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
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Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
Ok, so it seems the MAIN thing that makes me scummy is my pressure to vote switch at the end. Let me get this straight. At least one mafia member bussed YH. That much is for certain. You think that I, fearing for my partner, would decide to wait until the last minute to unvote him and go for Solar. WHY IN THE WORLD did I not go for solar as soon as it was tied up? Why in the world did I wait for it to be 5 votes to 1 on Solar for me to start acting? Because going for Solar that early on would make me look suspicious? As if I wouldn't think that sticking my neck out to attempt a very risky Solar lynch 1 hour and a half before nightfall is not? Oh, and even better, you think that my plan, as scum, was to attack uncompromisingly my erratic and unpredictable partner all game long, bother making long and quoty posts on him, only to abruptly change my mind after I realize that all my work actually was gonna get him killed? This makes 0 sense to me. If I were scum and this was my plan, I would CERTAINLY join the Solar train as soon as it came out. It wouldn't give me 1/20th of the suspicion that my sticking my head out did (which, according to your theory, is generally what scums love to do), and would have a MUCH higher chance of working. But instead, you are naive and think that I was suddenly terrified of losing my partner in a already MYLO situation. Guys, don't be naive, this does not make the slightest of sense. The real scum is one who quietly voted for YourHarry without drawing up suspicion. Because guess what? One misslynch and the game still ends, we are not out of MYLO yet. Doing what I did, as scum, would seem like the stupidest shit anyone could do, it is completely unnecessary for a victory as scum right now. Do you HONESTLY think that is my brilliant plan? If you said yes, then wow, I don't know what to say, you must be very biased. If you said "that's what he wants us to think", then your MAIN argument against lynching someone who has been heavy on the analysis and reads on players all game long is purely WIFOM. Also, your strategy for fishing evidence that is not there is pretty horrible. "Z-BosoN, please make your reads!" THen you skim it, nitpick one meaningless quote I didn't give the slightest shit to when I was writing, because that was not even close to the main point I was making, AND that was explained later, and throw the rest of it down the toilet. How bout you go back and read my post, unbiased, pretending it was one of your town reads that made it, and tell me why you think solar is town after a HUGE STASH of HARD EVIDENCE has been thrown in your way. Also, please answer as logically and as precise as you can. I know your impulse is to go through this post and try to find something that "inequivocally" proves me scum and ignore the rest, but read it seriously and explain to me your EXACT reasoning as to why I'm most definitely scum. Point by point. | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10847 Posts
Here are my current reads. GK. <3 Stutters. His day 2 play with YH has me leaning town with him. Obvious: not convinced either way. Golbat. Meh, he and YH went at each other pretty hard during day 2 and if he is sick that would explain his lurking. I don't think we should be lynching lurkers. To be honest. I am almost certain he is town. Your harry has tried to get a lynch on him several times. and has cast suspicion on him since day one. He and your harry went at each other hard day 2, and he was being set up for a lynch night 3 seems to me that he is just super inactive townie. Z- Boson: SCUM Solar: SCUM At this point in my mind it comes down to two of either Z- Boson Solarsail Obvious. With a heavy lean towards the first two | ||
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Solarsail
United Kingdom538 Posts
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