Newbie Mini Mafia XXIV - Page 41

On August 22 2012 14:59 Obvious.660 wrote:
Do I count as sheeping if I posted my case on him before you posted yours even though you asked? Semi-joking.

Not sure what to make of the Golbat situation but he's voting for Solarsail as well. Hard to speculate as to why, best guess is that it's because it was the most recent case posted. If we lynch correctly today and he's not NK'd hopefully he participates tomorrow.

On August 15 2012 12:17 goodkarma wrote:
@Solarsail:

Sigh... I really hope this entire day doesn't revolve around you because you got off to a bad start. I feel it's more likely you're an overaggressive townie right now. Seeing as how this is your first game I would recommend you take a look at prior games and how people present "cases" on other people. Try to show us why you feel someone is scummy rather than blindly accusing people.

The last thing I want is for us to waste an entire day getting a bad townie lynched.

On August 20 2012 08:57 goodkarma wrote:
Of my three scum suspects, I feel Thrawn is the worst lynch choice as his claim is semi-confirmable. Apparently many of you don't think that. Since one of the three is almost guaranteed to be lynched right now, I will stand by my current vote for the time being.

Stutter wrote:
Again he posts another case that relys on what should be unknown information for the case to hold any water. This isn't scumhunting. This is posting a bunch of What Ifs to make it look like it's useful. So what happens to this case now that Thrawn has flipped Vig. It's completely worthless, just another post of YH looking active without contributing.

Let me ask the town something. What does town Harry contribute with this post unless he's guessed correctly? Is it really a stretch to assume that Harry knew Thrawn would flip town so he could get out of contributing once again? Likewise with the previous post, he implied that if Thrawn is town Archrun must be scum. If he doesn't know that Thrawn is town neither of these plans make any sense. Once or twice I can overlook and just say that even trying to explain it with WIFOM is pointless but between everything I've went over so far I'd consider this more icing on the cake.

On August 22 2012 16:41 YourHarry wrote:
Darth, while I agree that sheeping other cases and trying to get get by without getting noticed is scum and in this regard Solar is scummy, I have a much stronger scum read on GK.

Please let me know what you think.

I also would like to know what Obvious currently thinks about GK being scum.

I don't think I will have much time to post tomorrow. But I will try to log in.

On August 22 2012 14:28 YourHarry wrote:
My reply against GK's accusation of me:



GK says that I am fond of withholding information. To restate GK's case in a more organized manner, it's this: GK admits that Harry may have had "maybe" acceptable reasoning for suspecting GK, but Harry has been withholding information, continuing to change his reads and swapping his votes through-out the game. This behavior is anti-town. And withholding information is advantageous for scums.

(This is not a misrepresentation of GK's case. I wanted to organize the contents of his post, so it's easier to analyze)

You may disagree with the reasoning for changing my reads, but not with the frequency with which I changed my reads. As I incorporate more information and re-analyze previous posts, I AM GOING to change reads, and therefore my votes. I have been wrong in my reads this game, but being wrong does not mean I am scum.

And where did I say changing your reads is wrong? That's part of playing the game. In the context of my withholding information case point, you really should have addressed why it is you'd switch your votes with little explanation, and then only after being pressured explain them in further detail later.

To be fair, GK does say that I am scummy because I base many of my cases on WIFOM. So if you think that my reasoning for my reads generally have been poor, wait a minute as I will address that soon. But GK's particular point above regarding my changing of reads, has no substance. Do scums change their reads and swap their votes more often than town? If you think so, I would argue that such belief is a common mis-perception. Scums want to survive. They want to avoid attention. They don't have to change their reads, if they think such change will buy much suspicion. At best, it is WIFOM.

Again, as scum or town, you could change your vote several times. What makes it suspicious is that you take it so lightly, changing it without really trying to explain yourself in any detail. Maybe you claim this is your "meta," and we should just live with it. But I find this an easy way to excuse scum-motivated vote switches. I know that I, for one, have had to pressure you pretty hard to share your reasoning for your vote-switches and to present cases of substance and not WIFOM.

People's reads change. And mine changed frequently (Also see my previous games, which links have been provided for. I am not saying that my changing my reads means I am town, just because I have done so in the past. But it should be taken as a proof that changing reads does not mean that Harry is scum).

Again, if you're going to defend my case points, actually address them...

You can argue that maybe I am trying to match my town meta as scum. But as town, I may inadvertently match my town meta from previous games. So aside from paranoia, this cannot be used to say I am scum for trying to match my previous town meta.

TBH, meta isn't something I'm concerned with right now. I'm concerned with motivation.

GK's second point: withholding information is advantageous for scums. This is wrong. Some information should be revealed, but some should not be. For example, a detective's investigation on a confirmed town or a confirmed scum would be advantageous for town if detective can somehow share such information without claiming. This is because scums already know who towns and scums are, so no additional is gained from scums' perspectives. But townies can use such information to limit and focus on which players to lynch.

Didn't I list this as my first case point? Thanks for stating something obvious here. Okay, so tell me specifically, why is it then that not disclosing fully your reads when you vote switch is a good idea, from a town perspective? It's not just that you're "withholding" a specific piece of information, but you haven't been forthcoming with sharing reads all game, and what I'm thinking of here (if you really need an example...) is vote swap justification.

But should a mason, in the beginning of the day, claim mason and reveal identity of his mason brother? Some information help town more than scums.

Let's suppose that I was right about Solar and GK being mason brothers. Would it have been advantageous for town for me to reveal this information? No.

The information I thought I had was going to benefit the scums more than the town. And because of that, I decided to not share the information I thought I had despite being repeatedly being accused for not sharing it. My stubbornness was based on my thinking that I was correct in knowing the mason alignment. It should be noted that it was only after it became apparent that Solar and GK were not mason brothers, that I decided to reveal this information, since this information was no longer useful to scums.

You present a believable point here, in this was one specific example. The problem is this isn't the only place where you've withheld information.

Related case against me previously brought up: it has been talked about whether scum Harry would have had an easier time identifying mason alignment than town Harry. It is true that scums have more information, and in general I would agree that scum Harry would have had an easier time. However, the style and the choice of words used by GK in his defense of Solar resulted in town Harry to deduce mason alignment. The explanation for this has been described a couple of times, but I can try to explain myself more clearly upon request.

But this doesn't validate you as town, as you could have made a poor "mason read" as either scum or town. Again, what I'm more concerned with right now is if your play is scum motivated.

And maybe the question should be asked: what is scum Harry's motivation behind instantly dismissing case against Solar in such an awkward and suspicious manner? Even if scum Harry wanted to defend scum Solar, would scum Harry have done it in such a ridiculous fashion? No.

Says who? you have a reputation for the ridiculous. Again, I'm looking at if your play serves a scum motive.

However, such action does make sense if town Harry belief that GK and Solar are mason buddies. I think whether I am town or scum, it is reasonable to be aware that such sudden change in suspicion would have looked scummy. Again, if you agree that scums want to avoid suspicion more than townies, then Harry's decision to express his read on Solar because Harry really thought Solar was town would make sense.

Weak deduction? Maybe. Reading too much into the wording and the style in which GK defended Solar? Maybe. Scum motivation? No.


This is just the tip, GK says. But I feel that I have defended against this tip of the iceberg. If there is any remaining suspicion, please address it. My change in voting pattern was based on my changing reads as I continued my analysis. And even GK admits some of them have acceptable reasoning behind them. And definitely, my decision to withhold the mason alignment information was pro-town.




Fan of last minute vote swapping. Definitely guilty of that. On day 1:

1) I had my vote on Shady. Was a choice between Thrawn and Shady.
2) I changed my vote to Archrun, who I felt confident about turning scum.
3) It was apparent that Archrun lynch was not going to happen. So I changed my vote to Shady, who I preferred over Thrawn.

Swapped my votes, I did. BUT: What is scum motivation here?? Did Shady not flip town? Did Archrun not flip town? Did Thrawn not flip town?

If Thrawn flipped scum, I may have to come up with some defense outlining why I thought Thrawn was town over Shady or why I thought Archrun was scum. BTW, I did this already, especially at one point when I was convinced Thrawn was scum.

But what scum motivations even exist for scum Harry to choose town Archurn lynch over town Thrawn lynch? Or town Shady lynch over town Thrawn lynch? I would argue that above course of events, if anything, indicates that I am NOT scum. If scum was trying to save his scum partner, such changing vote could be scum motivated?

There is good scum motivation to lynch Shady over Thrawn. Shady was establishing himself as a town leader, and having a high level of town coordination is detrimental to the scum team. I would have thought this would be obvious. Especially considering this scum-team seems to be afraid of a medic-type role, getting rid of Shady during the day would be the best choice. There is strong motive here to push this mislynch.

Oh wait, I must have forgotten about the possibility that scum Harry just felt like goofing around for the heck of it.

I cannot even begin to understand why my switching my votes can be interpreted as scum motivated.

My reads change. I explained my reasons. If you disagree with my reasons, argue why you reasons sucked, but don't say that my change of vote was scum motivated.


My WIFOM first, logical reasons later

What can I say. When I read posts... when I see night kills... I try to analyze. And GK, you will say again and again and again my analysis is WIFOM. But technically, everything is.

Scums tend to lurk. WIFOM, some townies lurk too! And scums can try not to lurk.

Scums tend to be wishy washy. WIFOM! Some townies are unsure of their reads so they are wishy washy. Some scums will outline focused case and show commitment.

Scums tend to want to avoid suspicion? They tend to have bad logic? All WIFOM!!

No. Scumreads aren't inherantly WIFOM. You can use general guidelines as a basis for scum tells, with the understanding that scum will present themselves a little differently. That's not WIFOM. Making reads based off literally nothing is WIFOM. Example:

On August 21 2012 13:24 YourHarry wrote:
Good point on scums not having time to respond to your latest post. But there were common suspicions between Golbat and Jhyut that were posted hours before deadline:

Z-boson's suspect list went: me, Jhyut, Golbat
Darth's suspect list: Golbat, Jhyut, Solar
GK's suspect list: Golbat, Jhyut, Obvious

Maybe WIFOM. But to me, I still can't get my head around scum Golbat lynching town Jhyut, who seemed to be scum Golbat's only way out.

Regards to no lynching, the only caveat for choosing to lynch today rather than tomorrow is the medic save. But if we decide to go ahead with our lynch today, I think claiming today is a good idea. We NEED a scum lynch today. And everyone claiming would make that much easier.

Another way to look at it is what I'd like to introduce as the YourHarry rule: If after reading an argument your head starts to spin, it was probably WIFOM.

But these are basically how we are taught to scum hunt. To be fair, I guess the key phrase is "tend to". Scums do tend to lurk overall, Scums do tend to be wishy washy, sheep easy cases and often have bad logic.

But for these very same reasons, my analysis is no more WIFOM than the other cases you have presented before. Will scum Thrawn have killed Archurn? Possibly, but scums tend not to target the easy lynch - especially if such lynch will make the scum suspicious. Would scum Golbat decide to NK Jhyut? Maybe, but scums again tend to spare townies who have high chance of getting mislynched.

[b]My attempt to role hunt/b]

First, I agree with Darth's retraction for asking people to role claim. Blues should claim upon their discretion.

I guess it was my mistake in thinking that role claims could help the town more than it could scum. Since we have to get today lynch correct, gathering as much information as possible could help us reduce the pool from which we need to draw the scum from. But I blue roles have more information than vanilla, so it should be up to their discretion.

I acknowledge my mistake here.

In regards to Stutter's claim that I was trying to role hunt throughout the whole game. Stutter, if you think my line of thinking that Gk and Solar are masons and making that public only after we found out that my theory was wrong... I explain this above. You cannot argue that there is scum motivation.

Or if you are thinking about Thrawn's case... do you think it was Harry's scum agenda was to role hunt and suspect the blue breadcrumb in Thrawn and kill him? Yes, it makes perfect sense.

I may have wondered about different roles, but there is no scum motivation here.

I disagree as I still feel your roleclaim request was likely scum motivated.

On August 22 2012 21:15 goodkarma wrote:


@DarthPunk:

Have your other scum reads changed since you reassessed everyone's filters? And why is SolarSail stronger than your other scum reads?

On August 20 2012 09:31 Solarsail wrote:
..............................

..............................

@self

1. Make your own reads, not those of others
2. Don't trust your own reads, ever
3. Wow you're a terrible player