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On August 22 2012 22:28 goodkarma wrote:
@DarthPunk:
Also note that with three scum left and three on each of our candidates, there is at least one scum behind at least one of our candidates. So I feel it's very likely at this point that not both of us are right.
So are you so certain that SolarSail is guilty that you could visualize YourHarry being innocent?
I see scum motivation behind YourHarry's actions, but I'm having trouble seeing any behind Solar's. Being sheepish and lurky are definitely suspicious traits, but they're not inherantly scummy ones. Unless you truly believe all three scum are lurkers (which honestly might be possible at this point), I still see YourHarry as the better candidate.
Add to that how suspicious I still am of Golbat and Obvious, and I'm skeptical about getting behind SolarSail right now.
I think solar and harry are both scum.
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And yes, people may hate that I referred to myself as an "established townie." Feel free to disagree if you wish. But the fact still remains that without an "established town leader" a mislynch today is almost inevitable. So if it's not me or DarthPunk feel free to make your own suggestion who you think it should be...
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@DarthPunk:
So you think scum is busing one of their own?
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Nvm I guess it would make sense for them to "blend in" with the votes if two correct scum candidates were mentioned, as otherwise they would be easily spotted. I still think it's unlikely we're both right, but I acknowledge it as being possible.
But if you feel both are scum how can your read on Solar be stronger when YourHarry clearly is playing with scum motivation in mind, and by nature of being a lurking sheep scum motivation can't be determined with Solar?
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On August 22 2012 22:41 goodkarma wrote:
@DarthPunk:
So you think scum is busing one of their own?
Yes I think they are forced too at this point. I think that one of them is Bussing. Solarsail is scum and voting golbat. so I view him as town. I think obvious is town also as he was so quick to drop the Golbat lynch after looking into solar's filter. I think a scum obvious would have tried slightly harder to go for the easy mislynch. That leaves either Stutters or Z-boson as scum bussing YH.
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I am leaning towards Z-boson as the final scum as he has cast suspicion on you whilst also stating you are town. Your harry and Z-boson both tried to cast suspicion on you today. Your harry has not voted for solar sail who is his direct lynch opponent which does not fit in to his previous play. Z-boson has also Ignored solarsail since day one and was a bit too defensive when i did not cast him as townie.
On August 22 2012 02:51 Z-BosoN wrote:@DarthPunkWait, what??? Show nested quote +On August 21 2012 17:42 DarthPunk wrote:
Golbat did not post during the night cycle. and his last post was 2 days ago. will golbat be modkilled or replaced?
To be honest I am feeling pretty demoralised about this entire situation. This game is incredibly difficult with the amount of lurking/ inactivity that has gone on. Not to mention losing 5 townies in the first 2 cycles. I am not sure if lurkers are even the right place to look at this point.
I am going to sound out my thoughts on the page and be transparent as possible. At this point denying information to the mafia is less important than revealing Information to the last 5 townies. I know you guys are reading this I just wish I knew who you were.
I have a strong town read on Goodkarma, but even with him/her I am not sure. I can see GK being scum. and if so I both applaud you and say WTF?!?! to the rest of town for being so shit.
Z-boson has appeared town like and active but has just sheeped cases and not been proactive in pushing them. Pretty much a neutral read.
Your Harry has been mental all game. Impossible to make out his motivations he is bad town (which is his meta) but this allows him to hide beneath this if he actually was scum. I read through XXI and I thought he was scum in that game. I was wrong, but this at least gives me something to think on.
Everyone was pushing the Obvious/ Your Harry/ Thrawn train. Too easy. Something was wrong. I had a lingering doubt in the back of my mind but I did not argue against the Thrawn lynch at all because he was so scummy in my eyes.
At this point I have no clear reads and anyone could be scum which doesn't help at all. Like you said yourself, please read through the filters. After my heavy attack on thrawn, actually being the first one to put up a formal and well explained case against him (with the archrun bit), and, as far as I recall, doing the same with YourHarry? Explaining while ShadySands shouldn't be regarded with THAT much suspicion and why Jhuyt should have deserved the day one lynch? After sticking with thrawn after you and goodkarma pointed your pitchforks at different directions? After I continued my case against YH even after you, for some reason, ignored all the "scumslips" and "hinting at external information" against YH once thrawn was innocent? And ALL of this after me taking hours reading everything and trying to make my posts as reasonable as possible, giving a detailed explanation regarding all of my decisions? You will say that I am sheeping? That's insulting. Please do like you said you would and read everyone's filters. I will do the same on the remaining people I have not yet attacked. Guys, we have to read and reread and read yet again EVERYTHING. The more we read, the less we have to guess and the better we can communicate with each other to find these scumsThat goes to everybody else, because right now it's only half the people discussing the most important read we have to make. This will basically guarantee our loss if there is not more contribution...
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The third scum is the one I having the most trouble with. But I am certain on Your Harry and Solar.
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On August 22 2012 22:47 goodkarma wrote:
Nvm I guess it would make sense for them to "blend in" with the votes if two correct scum candidates were mentioned, as otherwise they would be easily spotted. I still think it's unlikely we're both right, but I acknowledge it as being possible.
But if you feel both are scum how can your read on Solar be stronger when YourHarry clearly is playing with scum motivation in mind, and by nature of being a lurking sheep scum motivation can't be determined with Solar?
So... You can see no scum motivation for not making any reads? for blending in with the majority? really?
I urge you to read through his filter carefully and share your thoughts?
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I will admit the pieces fit together relatively well, but the one problem I have with it is that it all assumes that Golbat is town. Which given how incredibly lurky he is is impossible to really infer outside of a flip...
You warned Obvious ahead of time that you were making a case on SolarSail, so it would have been easy for Obvious to guess that SolarSail was the guy you planned on voting for. Further, from a scum perspective, making a case on a guy like SolarSail (super-sheeping lurker) is super-easy. So while it's great he took the initiative to put forward his own reads, I'm not ready to believe he's town.
But we both agree that YourHarry is scum, so I'm wondering why it is we can't all vote for him today? YourHarry has had a lot to say about others, so upon flipping red there's definitely plenty of information to sift through that can be used to find the other two scum. But until then, "association-based" reads are going to be pretty unreliable.
And if you look at SolarSail, who you advocate lynching today, his flip really doesn't provide any useful info, as all he's been doing is sheeping.
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@DarthPunk:
Allow me to elaborate a little: I see both possible town and scum motivation behind blending in like that.
It's either a timid first-time townie that doesn't trust himself, or:
A conservative scum afraid of getting caught.
The difference in my reads between SolarSail and YourHarry is for YourHarry there is no plausible townie motivation for some of his play.
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On August 22 2012 23:20 goodkarma wrote:
I will admit the pieces fit together relatively well, but the one problem I have with it is that it all assumes that Golbat is town. Which given how incredibly lurky he is is impossible to really infer outside of a flip...
You warned Obvious ahead of time that you were making a case on SolarSail, so it would have been easy for Obvious to guess that SolarSail was the guy you planned on voting for. Further, from a scum perspective, making a case on a guy like SolarSail (super-sheeping lurker) is super-easy. So while it's great he took the initiative to put forward his own reads, I'm not ready to believe he's town.
But we both agree that YourHarry is scum, so I'm wondering why it is we can't all vote for him today? YourHarry has had a lot to say about others, so upon flipping red there's definitely plenty of information to sift through that can be used to find the other two scum. But until then, "association-based" reads are going to be pretty unreliable.
And if you look at SolarSail, who you advocate lynching today, his flip really doesn't provide any useful info, as all he's been doing is sheeping.
We are not lynching for information we are lynching scum. My read on Solar is not associative at all. Can you please read Solars filter and give me your thoughts on him. Do you believe Solar to be scum or town?
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EBWOP:
What I've been trying to say by "no scum motivation" is could be town-motivated or scum-motivated.
Anyway, really tired now. Will check and reply to stuff in next 10 mins. Otherwise going to take a nap and be back in a couple hours. Sleep is long overdue...
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On August 22 2012 23:24 goodkarma wrote:
@DarthPunk:
Allow me to elaborate a little: I see both possible town and scum motivation behind blending in like that.
It's either a timid first-time townie that doesn't trust himself, or:
A conservative scum afraid of getting caught.
The difference in my reads between SolarSail and YourHarry is for YourHarry there is no plausible townie motivation for some of his play.
A timid first time towny would not make the play that almost got him lynched during the first day. Which to my mind is not adequately explained by "trying to stimulate discussion'. Since then he has sheeped and not contributed at all whilst seeming to do so. He is also not presenting a defense which is not doing him any favours
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And I disagree that solar is the easy lynch over Your Harry. Solar has not been suspected at all since day 1 and for someone that has not contributed at all, the fact that he was barely mentioned cause me concern. If everyone who had said Your Harry was scum stuck to that. Namely me. He would already have four votes.
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That being said. I am going to fully commit to my town read on Goodkarma. And I will work with him In order to secure a scum lynch.
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##unvote
##Vote: Your Harry
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##unvote
##Vote: Your Harry
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I am off to bed and will be back 2 hours before deadline.
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First, you're right SolarSail doesn't fit as a timid townie. He still could fit as a lazy one though... The fact of the matter is he's lurking, and I still don't see how a lurker is a strong read... By that logic, Golbat should also be a strong read...
And regarding lynch votes: So now you're saying you don't think YourHarry is scum? Even if Solar hasn't been discussed much for quite some time, lurkers are always easy lynch cases for scum to get behind.
I've read and reread Solar's filter. It's so short it isn't that time-consuming to read, or reread for that matter. I see a lurker that acted like a troll in the beginning of day one, and has sheeped me for a pretty long time. I see anti-town play, but not play that could only have been made with scum motivation.
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EPT
