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On August 16 2012 09:04 thrawn2112 wrote:
Yes, NH = YH, my bad.
So to clarify since you didnt actually answer the question, were you saying that ochrow had a town or a scum read on yourharry?
The "as to any motives behind that I can't yet speak" quote is a little ambiguous but I understood it as ochrow being suspicious of shady for shady focusing on solar's first post, but having nothing else to go on he was just leaving it at that, suspicion. What you have accused him of implying is a stretch. I have gone through ochrow's filter and can't a case of him keeping secrets about his read on solar. Could you find/quote/explain that one too?
I do not think your case against Ochrow is very convincing and I believe that you are reading too much into his posts.
First off, I don't have a case against him. I have inquiries about the contents of both his posts. After reading your reply, however, I understand the room for ambiguity.
In his latest post, he uses (ie Oh I have a secret but I won't share). Initially I thought he was misusing the meaning of "ie" and was actually saying he has a secret he won't share. This was my only problem with his post, which is why I called him out.
After reading his first post "as to any motives behind that I can't yet speak", I thought he was insisting on saying he knows something he cannot say (which is backed up by my initial though of him saying he had a secret he wouldn't share).
However, after reading your post, your interpretation of his ambiguity makes a lot more sense.
Thanks for clearing that up.
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I don't think there's evidence of Ochrow hiding information in the "(ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it)" post.
On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote:
On YH:
So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel.
Ochrow wasn't saying that he had a secret read, he was saying that yourharry claimed to have a secret read on solar, which is here:
On August 15 2012 12:24 YourHarry wrote:
Never mind. I am confident Solarsail is town. Move on.
##Unvote
and here:
On August 15 2012 13:20 YourHarry wrote:
Shady. I guess there is a small chance that I could be wrong. But if I am right, it is not a good idea to reveal this information. Let's move on for now.
I think you misquoted Ochrow, that "secret read" statement wasn't about himself.
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I still want to hear what archrun thinks about solar as well some other accusations such as the one against yourharry. He has only made 3 posts so far, and one of them was about policy, and the other two were about the SK question I asked at the beginning of the game. So far I've yet to hear any opinion from archrun about anything relevant.
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A few points I'd like to make:
@Darthpunk: I get that Shady is on your "suspects list." Who else, though, do you feel is scummy? You're definitely not the only person guilty of doing this, and it is pretty early still in the game. But I'm honestly hoping that we don't see a repeat of your relentless tunneling (e.g. Mordanis in XXII) to the point of pretty much excluding reads on anyone else. You should be especially aware of this, given you were scum in that game...
@thrawn: Focusing exclusively on archrun isn't going to be very productive right now. If you want to note him as a great choice for a "lurker back-up lynch," then feel free to do so and move on. Scum reads are more important right now than hunting lurkers. You could prod him all day one if you like, but honestly even then he very well might not contribute anything. And you will have wasted a day on a lurker, which makes you look bad because making cases on lurkers is so easy to do and a "safe" scum move.
@Golbat, Archrun, Juhyt: Your filters are especially sparse. I'd like to hear more from you. It's not limited to these people, but a cursory glance at their filters shows them to be especially guilty of being "lurky."
As a general observation: conversation seems to be dominated right now by only a handful of people. If we want to increase town's chances, everyone (especially the lurky) needs to step up and become more involved.
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@Z-boson Thrawn was right, the comment was not me saying I have a secret read it was a somewhat mocking rewording of what YH had said "Shady. I guess there is a small chance that I could be wrong. But if I am right, it is not a good idea to reveal this information. Let's move on for now."
I'll try and be a bit more clear, I'm a much more eloquent speaker than I am a writer. ^_^
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EBWOP:
@Darthpunk: Re-read your filter right after finishing my post. Looks like you're also pressuring YourHarry. So forget what I said about you tunneling, but it's still something I'm definitely keeping an eye out for.
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@thrawn2112
However, I now have a strong suspicion against you.
1) MAIN ARGUMENT: Why ArchRun?
+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On August 16 2012 07:11 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote:My two cents on Shady: My initial inclination when I see somebody being as aggressive as he is, this coming only from live games not forum, is that they are scum. However, every single time that I have been in this sort of situation and gotten a scum vibe from somebody being overly aggressive I have been wrong. So for me that history has me thinking that that Shady is town, just an incredibly aggressive one. However at the same time I think that he may be a bit overly aggressive and reading too much into people's posts, as he has made two rather strong accusations against Solar and JHyut that I feel are more or less unfounded. On Solar: As I originally said I felt that his play was not at all pro-town but, assuming he is telling the truth about the acting and that he didn't just pull it out of his ass, he has really turned around and is very much giving off a townie feel. On YH: So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel. As for any reads I have, in most of the games I've played there has been at least one scum that was just purely a lurker, and as such I get a bit of a scum feeling from Archrun. He has only three posts all only a few sentences, long enough to not be pointed out as one-liners but only just. I guess I also get suspicious of any first post that just focuses on O hai thar I'm a townie yay killing scum. While I know everybody is trying to prove themselves as town I just get bad feelings when the substance of somebody's post is: On August 15 2012 10:10 Archrun wrote:
As a Townee, I promote any policy that helps us catch scum, but we must back accusation up with evidence(which this policy should provided) and reason. On top of that in his three posts he doesn't get into what he thinks about who might be scum but is just theorizing or throwing out a soft defense. I may be totally off on here but until he posts a bit more or contributes something of substance I am going to throw out ##FoS ArchrunAs per Solar's question I hope this helps, and if there was any curiosity about the reasoning behind my general consensus post, it seemed like a lot of people were in more or less violent agreement over the Solar issue so I wanted to throw out my understanding of events in the hope that it might lead to shorter and/or fewer posts beating that dead horse. FOS ArchrunArchrun, you have made 3 posts so far and none of them have had anything directly to do with scumhunting. Can you tell us what you think about shady's claims concerning solar, myself, and newharry? You made an FOS on Archrun by saying that he only had made 3 posts and had no scumhunting. However, you completely ignored Golbat, who only has 2 posts with one-dimensional scumhunting claims, being that the FIRST thing he says is that you are the scummiest player, to which you respond with: Is this something I need to defend myself on? I am not sober right now so I don't think I could type a clear response till I wake up. Going to sleep now, I hope to wake up and see some more posts. And you don't mention it again. This seems to me to be a clear, 100% dodge. You give IRL excuses and forget about it, even hinting that you don't feel the need to answer it. You ignore Golbat not once, but twice. A townie thrawn would definitely bother defending himself to a direct attack such as that, and would try to policy-lynch both Golbat and ArchRun. However, you also didn't call JHyut, who also has 2 posts and even worse in quality than both the mentioned posters. Why mention only ArchRun and not Golbat, who called you out or JHyut? Either this is incredibly sloppy play, or you have a scum partner. If we assume the latter, then I can only think of: 1) You are trying to distract people from Golbat by making other accusations, and completely ignored JHyut. 2) You are trying to bus your partner ArchRun so as to draw away suspicion from yourself in case he comes up red. And, you completely ignored JHyut and Golbat. 3) You don't want to call out three people at once for whatever reason and chose someone other than your scum partner. I find this Highly Suspicious.
SUPPORTING ARGUMENTS:
2) Your initial posts
+ Show Spoiler +You keep playing the new card, and adding newbie questions that will show other people that you are not very good at this game: + Show Spoiler +All snippets: seeing as this is my first mafia game, how much should i prepare? i'm already planning on reading as many guides as i can but should i read through completed mafia games as well?
from what i've read in the other games your post count is something everyone really pays attention to
how long do these generally take to start? in the rules where it says 'pms are not allowed in this game' does that mean we aren't allowed to send a tl pm to any other player? if so are there any other 'allowed' means of communication between 2 or more players outside of this thread? ok thanks. that's what i assumed was true but i just wanted to confirm it so i dont accidentally break any rules or miss out on a part of the game that i was assuming was not allowed. Does anyone have experience playing in a game where a serial killer was a possible role? If there did end up being a serial killer, how big a role did they play and how high would you rate the importance and achieveability of sniffing them out early? In other words, would it be a worthwhile use of the town's time and investigation to try to figure out who, if anyone, is the serial killer? I can see how it would be very important to find out who is SK early on, but I also can see how it might be way more difficult than figuring out who is mafia, and thus not a good use of time. One distinction between the serial killer and the mafia is that the mafia are in communication and will be working together while the serial killer is separated from both town and mafia. Any player who is suspected to be not of town affiliation could either be mafia or SK, so while in either case they are a good target for lynching, having knowledge of their actual role would be way more valuable than just an uninformed hit on a supposed non-town player.
If there isn't an SK, then this line of discussion is a complete waste of time and we would be doing the mafia's job for them, which is why I asked if anyone has experience in games with an SK so that we all can get a better idea of what the risk/reward anaylsis should be on determining whether or not and when to focus on a potential SK.
Concerning shady sand's post, this is my first game so I have no previous history to reference. I am not really worried, but am trying to learn from other people's experiences if there is any reason to worry. I thought I was pretty clear that I was undecided on the importance of SK, and that if SK is unimportant in D1 it's a complete waste of time to worry about it. My current opinion is that it is something to worry about, but not on D1. Therefore I'm not going to continue posting about it until something happens along the lines of way too many unexplained town deaths. Sorry for the bother, but could you describe what OMGUS means? It's one of the several expressions I see used in the mafia forums of which I have no idea what they mean. This by itself is basically meaningless, but granted that my suspicions in my main argument rely on you "forgetting (or pretending to) people", I can only think that your initial posts were paving the ground for you to not be taken seriously and not have such motives questioned.
3) Your lack of reading
+ Show Spoiler +I've noticed that you have skipped on a few details due to not reading previous posts. a) First instance, from the OP: If there is any sort of issue, you are unsure about some mechanic, or you are just wondering if your devilish scheme is even allowed, feel free to PM me, or ask in-thread with green text. Don't feel shy; these games are meant to be a place to learn and be open. Yet you ask all your questions normally, so you didn't read this or you pretend you don't know this. b) Second instance, questioning Solar: On August 15 2012 11:09 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 10:55 Solarsail wrote:
However, we should always strive for clarity and activeness. From my readings, these are the two master traits we must have if we want to win as townies. This being said, I will strike with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy these virtues!
Hey Shady this guy is VERY SUSPICIOUS for saying exactly the same as me and I think you should get right on questioning him into the ground. What did you two say that was "exactly the same?" It was fairly clear what he meant, since he quoted the specific bolded part. c) Third instance, your latest discussion with me. Confusing YH with NH, heavily misinterpreting my quote saying that "I had a case", and then making another post once I had already retracted my inquiries on Ochrow (you might have been sniped, I don't know).
With these arguments, I can conclude that either your play is very very sloppy, or you are trying to paint a picture of yourself as being completely oblivious to the gameplay of Mafia, so as to divert attention and giving a plausible explanation for these "slips" I mentioned.
For now, I stay strongly opposed to having three extremely lurky players, and a fairly lurky one (Stutters695). I am inclined to dismiss you as just being sloppy, because my deepest concern is the very VERY high level of lurkyness in this town.
Nevertheless,
##FoS thrawn2112
@Shady Sands
Why have you suddenly disappeared? Why haven't you answered my post against you?
We should start discussing our lynch candidates. I am inclined to lynch a lurker on day one. This will:
1) Give us a good chance of catching scum. During at least the last 3 newbie games, there was always a lurking scum or more. With 3 lurkers, we have a 1/3 chance of hitting the mark, instead of 1/4 (assuming that the lack of discussion in D1 will give us a random lynch)
2) Make the other lurkers be more active.
3) Give participial players more time to defend themselves.
Is this agreeable?
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On August 16 2012 03:48 YourHarry wrote:Posting from work. Mkfuba: First, there is a difference in cautiously wondering if Solar is a newbie townie, which is what you did, and knowing that Solar is a suspiciously playing town. This is what GK wrote: Show nested quote +Sigh... I really hope this entire day doesn't revolve around you because you got off to a bad start. You guys propose the same thing in that Solar is not a good lynch. But the underlying basis for GK's proposal is based on what he somehow knows as a certainty. There is a subtle but important difference here. And this is why I think GK is scum, now that I realize that they are not mason brothers. Second, I do think the evidence was quiet sufficient. I am actually surprised that no one saw the same thing I did. In addition to GK's cooperative acceptance of Solar as just an over-agreessive townie , Solar's bold posting style fit almost perfectly once I started believing that he was a mason. Finally when GK no longer questioned me, I became more confident of my read. Also, what information do scums have that townies don't have that would allow scums to speculate better on mason alignments? There is one thing: since scums know everyone who is not scums, they may have easier time identifying the mason claims. But from my perspective, as long as I deemed the possibility of GK/Solar being scums together to be unlikely, my ability to speculate on mason alignment is as good as scums'. You may feel like I am playing with more information because I was quick to believe GK/Solar mason, but logically information available to scums does not allow them to better read masons as long as townies can also establish that GK/Solar are not scums together. I explained my reason for thinking that GK/Solar are not scums together, though I am having second thoughts about this. Thus, my identifying GK/Solar mason combination, even if it was based on less than convincing evidence does not lend much support to me being scum.
You read way too much into a single post by GoodKarma and used that to base an entire read off? Whilst this seems plausible it is not enough to sell me on your Innocence. The swiftness in which you flip from voting for someone to believing him to be masoned is near unbelievable, unless you know that they were green.
On August 16 2012 03:48 YourHarry wrote:
I deemed the possibility of GK/Solar being scums together to be unlikely, my ability to speculate on mason alignment is as good as scums'. You may feel like I am playing with more information because I was quick to believe GK/Solar mason, but logically information available to scums does not allow them to better read masons as long as townies can also establish that GK/Solar are not scums together.
You deemed someone which you had just proclaimed as scum and voted for to be green? and this allowed you to Identify the scum pair? You see, This is a major hole in your logic and perhaps the first slip of the game.
You publicly stated that the reason you unvoted solar was that you believe he was masoned. Now you are saying that you could identify the mason pair as easily as scum because you ruled out the possibility of them both being scum.
This is a fallacy. It seems very likely that you knew the alignments of both GK and Solar and that was the reason that you made the mason connection.
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EBWOP:
bah, 1/4 ~ 3/13 =p
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On August 15 2012 19:16 goodkarma wrote:
Expect a meaningful case writeup on who I suspect to be likely scum sometime tomorrow.
I am still eagerly awaiting this writeup GK.
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I am focusing on Archrun because none of the other scum reads have had very much merit. He is the person who has given the smallest amount of opinion on anything, which means that up until he does it will be impossible to get a scum read on him. I also looked at other people with low post counts, and Archrun was the only one who had not made a claim about anything. This makes him the most suspicious player out of all the lurkers. All I am doing is asking him to post more, and to share his opinions on what has happened so far. Of course I agree that focusing on scum reads is more important than focusing on who has posted the least, but when, as goodkarma said, the conversation is only happening between a handful of people scum reading is difficult.
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Re-reading the thread something Thrawn stated seemed incredibly suspicious.
On August 16 2012 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote:
mkfuba07, after reading my post do you agree with my claim that YH is town? If not, why not?
Why are you actively trying to prove that someone is a town? rather than find the scum? what possible town motivation is behind this?
It seems to me like you are trying to convince the one person at that time whom had still expressed doubts on Your harry's alignment to believe that he was town and not scum. This is not pro-town activity. Spending time trying to convince a particular person of a players green status day one is scum behaviour.
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Back, reading. My train of posts tonight will likely lead with a shortlist for D1 lynch.
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EBWOP: Lead with a shortlist, and end with a single candidate.
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@darthpunk
That question was more for my sake than mkfuba's. Shady made some posts accusing yourharry, which was the immediate topic of discussion. I wrote out my view on that topic, since it was the one that had everyone's attention. I didnt care as much as you think I did if mkfuba agreed with my post, but his reasoning for/against my position was what I was trying to learn. Knowing exactly the reasons why a player reads another player as town/scum can give you huge insight into how everyone else is thinking. There are several times in this game where someone has described their read and I have questioned them to find out if their read was weak, strong, or had ulterior motives.
Also it seems to me that confirming somebody is town isn't a waste of time, it will give you new information you didn't have before and you will have a narrower list of who potential scum could be. While it isn't the most important part of the game it isn't useless like you have described.
Concerning scumhunting:
I really think that everyone should confirm an approval of the lurker policy. The main purpose of the policy is to encourage everyone to raise their post count which will make the town's job easier. That's not saying that we all will agree to lynch the player with the lowest post count, but that if there are not any other areas of investigation we will focus on lurkers. I think we're at a point where not much has been accomplished, and people have been making weak reads. At some point which I think is now, we need to start applying pressure on the lurkers. In my previous post I gave reasons as to why I am focusing on Archrun.
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On August 16 2012 10:47 DarthPunk wrote:
You read way too much into a single post by GoodKarma and used that to base an entire read off? Whilst this seems plausible it is not enough to sell me on your Innocence. The swiftness in which you flip from voting for someone to believing him to be masoned is near unbelievable, unless you know that they were green.
The swiftness of my flip is explained by revelation that GK and Solar were mason buddies, though.
If I am scum and knew that they were green, you could accept my sudden change in my point of view regarding Solar's alignment. Would scum Harry decide to compromise what seems to be a semi-promising mislynch in Solar (assuming Solar is not Harry's scum partner) to risk being suspected, by trying to protect who scum Harry thought was a mason? Then continue to sacrifice being suspicious by not revealing his initial read even despite continuous pressure, until it became obvious that Harry was wrong about his mason reads?
Or is this more likely the course of action from a town Harry?
What would be the explanation for this? The only explanation that I can see is that scum Harry somehow wanted to establish his pro-town behavior by pretending to be a town who does not want to reveal identities of mason. Though, I still do not think that I would have been awry of so suddenly changing my point of view, as it would surely incite much suspicion.
On August 16 2012 10:47 DarthPunk wrote:
You deemed someone which you had just proclaimed as scum and voted for to be green? and this allowed you to Identify the scum pair? You see, This is a major hole in your logic and perhaps the first slip of the game.
I guess you mean, mason pair. I admit that I was simply basing my read on GK's post. If you read GK's post though, don't you think you can share my point of view? I am posting GK's post again, because I really think deduction of GK/Solar mason buddies not too unreasonable:
On August 15 2012 12:17 goodkarma wrote:
@Solarsail:
Sigh... I really hope this entire day doesn't revolve around you because you got off to a bad start. I feel it's more likely you're an overaggressive townie right now. Seeing as how this is your first game I would recommend you take a look at prior games and how people present "cases" on other people. Try to show us why you feel someone is scummy rather than blindly accusing people.
I definitely found it strange how GK had not a single inkling of suspicion against Solar, who I for sure found very scummy. Again, it is possible that they are scum together. But I posted earlier my explanation of initially dismissing this possibility:
YourHarry wrote:
GK's post struck me as strange because it made it sound like he knew Solar's alignment. He even starts the post with a "Sigh..." as if the town has been going in the wrong direction. My first suspicion was that they are scums together, but I don't think scums support each other this obviously and directly. GK using such wordings would strongly incriminate him if Solar ever flips scum. Thus, I thought this possibility is not likely.
DarthPunk wrote
You publicly stated that the reason you unvoted solar was that you believe he was masoned. Now you are saying that you could identify the mason pair as easily as scum because you ruled out the possibility of them both being scum.
This is a fallacy. It seems very likely that you knew the alignments of both GK and Solar and that was the reason that you made the mason connection.
Could you explain this fallacy. I wanted to argue that even if I was scum, my ability to identify mason would not be better than towns', as long as towns' also agreed that GK and Solar are not scums together. Here is my post explaining this:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=359489¤tpage=13#244
And this is the reason why I suspect GK to be the scum, because unless GK and Solar are mason together, he somehow knew the town alignment of Solar. The same same argument that you are making now, on why I am scum for knowing GK/Solar's alignment can be made about GK, for knowing Solar's alignment. Except, hopefully my explanation makes sense that my reasoning for knowing is based on thinking that GK/Solar was mason.
GK, on the other hand, does not have explanation for this. As far as I am concerned, GK actually back-tracked his initial knowledge of Solar being scum. I will post about this soon.
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On August 16 2012 03:48 YourHarry wrote:Posting from work. Mkfuba: First, there is a difference in cautiously wondering if Solar is a newbie townie, which is what you did, and knowing that Solar is a suspiciously playing town. This is what GK wrote: Show nested quote +Sigh... I really hope this entire day doesn't revolve around you because you got off to a bad start. You guys propose the same thing in that Solar is not a good lynch. But the underlying basis for GK's proposal is based on what he somehow knows as a certainty. There is a subtle but important difference here. And this is why I think GK is scum, now that I realize that they are not mason brothers. Second, I do think the evidence was quiet sufficient. I am actually surprised that no one saw the same thing I did. In addition to GK's cooperative acceptance of Solar as just an over-agreessive townie , Solar's bold posting style fit almost perfectly once I started believing that he was a mason. Finally when GK no longer questioned me, I became more confident of my read. Also, what information do scums have that townies don't have that would allow scums to speculate better on mason alignments? There is one thing: since scums know everyone who is not scums, they may have easier time identifying the mason claims. But from my perspective, as long as I deemed the possibility of GK/Solar being scums together to be unlikely, my ability to speculate on mason alignment is as good as scums'. You may feel like I am playing with more information because I was quick to believe GK/Solar mason, but logically information available to scums does not allow them to better read masons as long as townies can also establish that GK/Solar are not scums together. I explained my reason for thinking that GK/Solar are not scums together, though I am having second thoughts about this. Thus, my identifying GK/Solar mason combination, even if it was based on less than convincing evidence does not lend much support to me being scum.
I'm going to have to admit that I can't debate this point. Since I wouldn't have even considered GK's "Sigh..." comment suspicious, I wouldn't have reached a point where I considered either a GK/Solar mason OR scumteam. Essentially, since I wouldn't have drawn what you did from his "Sigh..." comment, I see the entire situation as contrived, and I see your reason for eliminating the scumteam as a possibility as contrived (since it was based on the "Sigh..." comment). This may just be a difference in thought processes; I may simply have a more similar thought process to GK than I do to you. Nevertheless, since the situation seems fabricated to me, it casts you in a suspicious light. It's definitely not enough for me to consider voting for you D1, especially with what I feel are three relative lurkers in the game (Golbat, Archrun, Jhuyt), but I'm going to keep my FoS on you.
On August 16 2012 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote:
mkfuba07, after reading my post do you agree with my claim that YH is town? If not, why not?
I hope my above explanation explained my position here.
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##Vote Goodkarma
First, the post I want everyone to re-read is the one that got me in trouble. I honestly don't know what GK is thinking here unless they were mason buddies:
On August 15 2012 12:17 goodkarma wrote:
@Solarsail:
Sigh... I really hope this entire day doesn't revolve around you because you got off to a bad start. I feel it's more likely you're an overaggressive townie right now. Seeing as how this is your first game I would recommend you take a look at prior games and how people present "cases" on other people. Try to show us why you feel someone is scummy rather than blindly accusing people.
The last thing I want is for us to waste an entire day getting a bad townie lynched.
I mean, he sighs! You may laugh and say this is trivial, but to me this is an indication of certainty that everyone else who has been suspecting Solar is wrong and he somehow has this knowledge and disapproves.
Then he asks me why I find Solar townie. And exactly 3 minutes later, when I explain to him why I thought Solar was a mason, in this encryptive post that I thought he would understand if he was a mason:
On August 15 2012 12:55 YourHarry wrote:
GK, your post regarding Solar was the reason why I found him town. Is that enough explanation for you?
And since he is not a mason, he should have questioned me regarding what I could possibly mean. It should have been very confusing! WTF am I talking about. Instead, he disappear. Still, I guess it is possible that he logged off in that 3 minute period. He does not seem to post frequently, afterall.
To me, the above is the most convincing evidence that GK is scum. But his rest of the play are also scummy:
Again, even if he disappeared previously before he saw my initial response to him. Thinking that GK was a mason, I made more direct references to him, including the quote below, hoping that he would discretely support my point of view. But now, knowing that GK is not a mason, town GK should have had strong scum read on me. Yet, he does not comment or respond to any of my posts that directly calls out his name.
Shady, unless GK or someone starts accusing me I standby my decision.
And his next post is basically bunch of fluffs. The part I think are almost pure fluffs are bolded:
On August 15 2012 19:16 goodkarma wrote:
Expect a meaningful case writeup on who I suspect to be likely scum sometime tomorrow.
A couple quick comments before bed though...
Regarding the suspicions going at Shady:
Yes, he may have maintained a high degree of activity with few case points presented by himself, but to his credit he has gotten town talking and meaningful discussion rolling. I'm content to see him "prod" people, as someone needs to do this. And his case on YourHarry is definitely a good start in the right direction. Let's keep in mind there's three scum, not just one. So let's each try to give multiple scum reads where possible instead of tunneling one person at a time. Especially since if everyone tunnels the same guy today, and doesn't discuss other suspects in any detail, we pretty much go into day one all over again (if we mislynch) come day 2.
I would have liked, for example, to hear a little more about Shady's "scum reads" on some of the people he's prodded prior and taken a break from, especially Solarsail.
And regarding reading our filters from prior games:
This is a newbie game, meaning filters are very sparse. A two-game "meta read" is hardly anything to go off of, as you can't honestly expect people to make exactly the same mistakes in their play over and over again. Everyone's gameplay will definitely change in the first few games. It's near-impossible to get a real "play pattern" off like two games, and I don't feel a "meta-read" is really going to be that valuable... If anything, it will make people over-suspicious of people who have a strong scum history, and overly-trusting of those with a strong town history.
Then his next post is again, a bunch weak wishy-washy reads on some players. It is basically a narration on what had happened previously, regarding Solarsail (which incidentally, now he thinks Solarsail could be a scum) but he does explain why he doesn't think Solarsai is scum, because it would be "high risk high reward" scum style...
On August 16 2012 06:41 goodkarma wrote:
Solarsail's most recent postings definitely are a change of stance from his "troll" behavior he exhibited earlier and deserves a little time to comment on. I am very glad to see Solarsail renounce his trolling ways. Personally, I don't feel it was a very strong way to start the game. There will be suspicion cast on him the rest of the game for this day one play. However, I agree with his point that scum would have little motivation to go away from "trolling." His early gameplay was pretty disruptive, to the point of derailing all conversation onto him. Had he continued with "trolling," there's no doubt in my mind that he could have been that guy town would be 100% unsure of the rest of the game with no hope of a better read.
Going away from this "troll" playstyle gives us more insight into Solarsail's motivation behind his posts, which is not a good idea from a scum perspective. As scum, he could have hidden behind his troll behavior until getting lynched. If he did a good job of it, he would be so disruptive there would be no meaningful conversation about other scum reads. Further, when the time came to lynch him there would be such consensus that no meaningful leads would come from his lynching.
As I've just mentioned, there is a legitimate scum reason for his early postings. But as I've already discussed, I feel his aggressive early stance was most likely town-motivated. This is because in a newbie game, I would not expect such a scum play, but rather for scum to play more "safely."
Further, the scum playstyle I've described would be a bit high risk, high reward. The longer a "troll scum" could stay alive, the more derailed the town would be and the better off the scum team would be. However, drawing attention to one's self like Solarsail did so early in the game would definitely put scum in a situation where they might have to bus Solarsail day one, and I can't think of many situations where a voluntary day one scum bus is ever really a good idea. Therefore, even though I could see a "troll scum" motivation, Solarsail's early play felt too aggressive even for that.
TL;DR:
Solarsail, like anyone else here, could be scum, but my impression of his early play was that he was more likely an aggressive townie. I feel there is more of a plausible town motivation than a scum motivation for him to now change his playstyle to be more constructive.
In summary, non-mason but town GK should have been highly suspicious of me for continuing to making references to GK. He should have at least responded to my posts, wondering about what is going on. I can't say why I know scum GK would do this, however, except to reference XXIII where he was scum and was basically lurking. He is definitely posting more now, probably because he knows that policy lynch could hurt him, but I think overall, he is more hesitant to engage in direct conversations as scum. And I see the tendency of such reluctance to share his "reads" in many of his fluffy, wishy-washy posts.
But more importantly, I think his prior knowledge of Solar's town alignment (even when Solar was acting suspicious and others were accusing him) makes him the best lynch candidate today.
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@Mkfuba What about my "story" that seems fabricated to you?
FOS Golbat Jyhut Stutters and Archrun for lurking. Please do share your current reads. In particular, I would like your comments on what you think of my case against GK. If you do not have time to participate in the future, do try to contribute today as much as today and request replacement.
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On August 16 2012 11:07 DarthPunk wrote:Re-reading the thread something Thrawn stated seemed incredibly suspicious. Show nested quote +On August 16 2012 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote:
mkfuba07, after reading my post do you agree with my claim that YH is town? If not, why not? Why are you actively trying to prove that someone is a town? rather than find the scum? what possible town motivation is behind this? It seems to me like you are trying to convince the one person at that time whom had still expressed doubts on Your harry's alignment to believe that he was town and not scum. This is not pro-town activity. Spending time trying to convince a particular person of a players green status day one is scum behaviour.
Establishing someone as confirmed townie is actually very advantageous for town. Masons, for example, are nothing but confirmed townies to each other and can be very powerful, especially in the late game. It is also another reason why scums prefer to NK confirmed townies.
But, of course, it is difficult to establish to 100% confirm townies, just like it is difficult to establish confirmed scums. So I agree that, in the beginning of the game, we should focus more on establishing scum read. But if obvious town read sticks out, we should share it with others. It is scum motivation to do the opposite - to limit as many town reads as possible.
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EPT
