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On July 05 2012 06:28 Hopeless1der wrote:
@Keirathi
With respect to my brief paragraph about Prom, that was more of an afterthought that someone might have brought up as a flaw in my reasoning against Umlaut. It was my take on their tone in their response to you and less about the content of their respective defenses. Ultimately, I find AmericanUmlaut to be the scummier looking player, based on my reads and his hostile tone through his defense, and that was the main point I wanted to convey without looking like I'd just dismissed the fact that your strongest read was Promethelax.
I can understand your point to an extent. But look at it from my perspective for a moment. One of my scummiest reads (you) comes and defends my absolute strongest read with a very dismissive argument without really addressing any of my points against him, and then proceeds to launch into an argument against one of my weakest reads (which does make some good points, by the way). If I make the assumption that you are mafia (not that I am, at this point, I'm just getting my point across), then you just attempted to change my focus off of my scum read and onto my non-scum read. Pretty easy to see why that comes across as scummy.
To be fair, I would probably be having these same arguments had you totally dismissed my Prom read and didn't mention it at all. I think your only real choice if your intent was to relieve some of my suspicion towards you would have been to lay out some arguments of your own against Prom, even if you later went own to lay out your case against Umlat and say that he was a stronger read for you.
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United States5162 Posts
Yea, after this last turn of events I really have no clue. I was pretty confident about Intact, but with him flipped town my whole read has turned to shit. I'm too inebriated after 4th of July to really go over anything now, but I'll take a loot tomorrow after work.
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Okay, clearly Keirathi thinks I am scum and a reasonable and well thought out response doesn't change his mind. I am not going to bother to defend myself against this since Kier won't listen to reason. If he is going to force everyone to mislynch me I want to get as many of my reads and the reasons for them into the thread so that when I flip green you townies will have more to work with, assuming that a medic protects someone tonight! Come on medic no one will look down on you for batting .333.
So, Keir, if you have anything that you want me to respond to ask me directly. If you just want to suggest that I am scum for no good reason I'm not going to bother to respond. We won't gain anything by me shitting up the thread with my defense so I'm going to give you solid reads instead, if you are town I hope you'll realize that I am too; if you aren't I don't really care what you think. If you really have read my filter so closely I would expect you to have realized that I am not red.
So first: my scum reads.
I am leaving Fencar out of this because he has been replaced but I still think he is probably scum and I hope that we all give his replacement a cold hard look.
Blind-Rawr, now Keir, is scum. I never really thought that Blindy was was defiantly scum, or more accurately I never looked at him because there was nothing to look at. His filter is...ten posts long after the start of the game until the point where he was replaced. He never gave us a single read and he could have either been new at town or at scum. He seemed scummy by virtue of his lurking and his lack of reads but he was never my scummiest read and I never followed through on looking into him really.
The thing is as soon as he was replaced we got an active player with grandiose reads covering everyone in the thread. He came in here and told us to ignore the scummy vibe everyone had on Blindy and to totally pay attention to his reads. His reads that put me on the top of a scum list. Now like the reast of you, barring scum and dt if we have one, I have a total of one mod-confirmed townie alive in this game. That townie is me and I feel like I have done a good job in that role to work for town and to find mafia, this is reflected in the town read that everyone had on me until Kierth came into the thread, until he showed up no one thought I was mafia and I don't believe that anyone does now. Every townie in this game has a town read on me because of my behaviour. Keir says it is because of how much I post. My filter is three pages long. Count 'em. You know who else has a three page filter? Statistically speaking you do. Myles is on three pages, so is Umlaut, and Hopeless is as well. JH has four pages and he died n1. Lurkers like Bob, Iamimperfection and even Anacletus have two page filters. So why does Kier attack me with this facitius reason? I can't think of any reason for town to distort the facts like this; I can think of a reason for scum to do it though, they want me dead.
There has to be a reason that scum killed Sciberbia and not me since we were the most active and the guys who were most well thought of as green. I assume everyone else had a town read on Sciberbia since I did. The only reason I can think of is that I had more of a filter and therefore more things that could be called scummy by scum players or that Sciberbia had better scum reads than me. I wasn't sure that Blindy was scum but Sciberbia sure thought so, you can tell by the way he voted for him:
On July 03 2012 14:48 sciberbia wrote:
Okay it is just about time for me to call it a day.
I quickly read through the filters of Hopeless1der and Fencar. On first read, Fencar actually looks townie to me. I would really not like to lynch him today, and I hope he is not modkilled.
I'm not so sure about Hopeless1der. He looks scummy for the first half of his filter, and then it's like he turns on a switch and starts posting some good analysis on Intact and others. I want to see more from him and don't think he's a good lynch today.
Who I think we should lynch today
Fencar and Intact seem to be the popular targets.
My cursory opinion is that Fencar is town. Also, he is getting modkilled/replaced. I'd really not like to lynch him today.
I think Intact might be scum, but I'm not convinced. I think we have better targets, and I'd not like to lynch Intact today.
As I've said, both BobTheLob and BLinD-RawR look quite scummy to me. I'd be shocked if neither was scum and wouldn't be surprised if both are scum. I feel strongly that we should lynch one of these two today. I feel stronger about BLinD-Rawr.
My schedule
I'm going to sleep now, and then I'll be at work from the time I get up through the deadline. So I can't do any more significant reading or posting until after the lynch. I assure you that I will be following the thread from work though. You can count on me changing my vote to the majority candidate before the deadline if that is what is needed to prevent a No-Lynch.
But for now, I'm feeling more confident about BLinD-Rawr than BobTheLob, so I will
##Vote BlinD-Rawr
Keir's one big post is a re-hash of everything that has happened in thread. He calls it his notes and there are a few observations thrown in but it feels like a a huge post that screams “look at me! Look at me! I am totally contributing!” without actually contributing. I'll link the post and you can read it over for yourself, it is so big that I skimmed it this morning when I had to run to work but it actually doesn't add as much as something of that length should.
In that long long post Kier calls Sciberbia 25% lilely to be scum. And when Sciberbia dies and flips town he says:
On July 05 2012 06:10 Keirathi wrote:
gg sciberbia. You were my best town read!
look at that attempt to gain towncred. Sciberbia was my best town read too but you'll notice that I acted on that before his death. Although I guess that is true based on what he said, 25% is the lowest chance of flipping scum he gives followed by two thirties and everyone else has a 50% chance or greater, talk about hedging your bets and leaving yourself an out.
So I think that Sciberbia was right, BlinD-Rawr was scum and so is kier.
My bet is that Hopeless1der is also scum. I have already made a case about him and here it is
On July 01 2012 09:33 Promethelax wrote:Between Show nested quote +On June 29 2012 07:17 Hopeless1der wrote:
Let's suppose many people neglect to post...if we can't get a decent case going, are we cool to lynch lurkers?
Everyone on board? and Show nested quote +On June 29 2012 07:40 Hopeless1der wrote:On June 29 2012 07:19 JingleHell wrote:
Actually, if many people neglect to post, it's the worst time to lynch lurkers, so why would you suggest it, Myles? Mathematically, if 6 lurk, then, if we assume 100% of the scum are also amongst the lurkers, we're already at a coinflip to get a scum. Very true. At that point its useless to policy lurkers. Now is the time to get this crap out of the way though. I do think we need some kind of policy to follow since the game is majority Lynch. Let's figure out our options and get the scumhunt on. something happened. Something more than the passage of 23 minutes. Looking into the thread it seems that it was JH and his actually bad post that convinced Myles to change his mind. See a 50% chance of hitting scum on d1 is good. I would take that on any d1 since clearly leaving us to our own devices didn't work very well. Since all that happened to change Myles' mind in thread was that one poorly thought out post I wonder if there wasn't something outside the thread that was posted, maybe in scum qt? No proof but something I'm taking into account. He follows this with a lot of useless one-liners and non-committal attacks against both Fencer and Anacletus. After wading through the mess he has made of his posting I also found this: Show nested quote +On June 30 2012 06:39 Hopeless1der wrote:On June 30 2012 06:17 Fencer710 wrote:Single words are fine, though. Damn lack of edit button increasing my post count artifically.  It's like accidently opening no-gas in a matchup where you normally open gas because you forgot his race, then forced to all-in because you don't know how to open gasless FE. Argh...Thanks for derailing us hard ghost. It's time to get back to scumhunting now? and for future reference, the quoted post is usually seen as a complete waste of time and reason for suspicion. where he says things that sound townie but doesn't do anything with those things. The next post I want you to pay attention to is this one: Show nested quote +On June 30 2012 12:45 Hopeless1der wrote:On June 30 2012 12:20 Fencer710 wrote:
OK, guys. I have to go to bed. My closing thoughts in case I don't make the deadline tomorrow:
Remember, 7 people have to decide to lynch the same guy in order for there to be a lynch. It's me, Anacletus, or nothing.
You can be meta all you want in your head, but it doesn't change what actually goes on in the thread.
Remember to read and reread all the posts! I'll take you over Anacletus today. You're posting is extremely unproductive to me. It doesnt seem all that scummy, but its a massive hindrance when you don't provide anything for discussion, just constantly droning about how your new and guides are super cool. ##Vote: Fencer710 which brought my attention on to our hopeless friend. From this point on he knows he is being watched and his posts change slightly. After this point Wonder never hard defends himself, instead he stops posting one-liners and tries to look more active, it looks to me like a guy who knows he is under suspicsion and wants to change that. That is not a town trait. When one of us comes under suspicsion our goal should be to act in a pro-town way to hunt scum, instead 1der has posted in a pro 1der way and not attempted to hunt scum at all. So, if that hasn't onvinced you, and I'm not sure it should I would like to give you the crowning jewl in the hopeless1der is a hopeless scum player case. Show nested quote +On July 01 2012 02:21 Hopeless1der wrote:The biggest scumtell I've had so far is the whole mislynch vs no lynch. To that I submit the following: WORST CASE SCENARIO No Lynch Day1 + Show Spoiler +
Day1: 9 Town, 3 Scum (33.333% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch)
No Lynch, Mafia hit on town
Day2: 8 Town, 3 Scum (37.5% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch
(Mis)Lynch Day1 + Show Spoiler +Day1: 9 Town, 3 Scum (33.333% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch)
Lynch Town, Mafia hit on town
Day2: 7 Town, 3 Scum (42.8% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch) Conclusion: Mislynch Bad. No Lynch Worse. On July 01 2012 02:09 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
SNIP
My read on Anacletus isn't changed at this point, though; I still think he's got a good chance of flipping scum. I'm a bit concerned that there might be too many players who will be inactive between now and the lynch, in which case I'll be switching my vote back to Anacletus to prevent a no-lynch. WTF YOU ALREADY KNOW THIS WHY AM I DEFENDING MYSELF TO YOU?? Let's look at his conclusion: it is bad to have a no lynch because if we kill of a town statistics suggests our next random lynch will be more likely to hit scum. Remember before this game started I said I was sorry if I was dumber than two rocks making love? I now present you with one of the two rocks required. Hopeless is either scum or playing an anti-town game because he has no idea what he is doing. Since the rest of us newbs figured it out I would guess it is the former rather than the latter.
On top of this he has continued to post in a scummy was and when I came under attack he soft defended me I think that he knows that I am green and knows that if I am lynched having defended me will look good. Once I flip green the town will probably lynch Kier (assuming we get our medic save at night, we may as well plan to succeed since planning for failure won't help us) and Keir has said that Hopeless is his next scummiest read after me. Hopeless has defended me. I believe that the scum plan is to get me mislynched in return for probably just straight winning and, if they don't win, losing one of their own and confirming a second as town in everyone's eyes. He also pushes Umlaut while Keir calls him town, it looks to me like scum setting up the perfect follow up mislynch after both Kier and I have flipped.
It is my firm belief that Hopeless is scum. His play seemed stupid but it changed drastically, he says he got coaching but I bet it was from marvellosity and not xsksc or artanis[xp], note his familiar use of marvellosity's name here:
On July 04 2012 04:54 Hopeless1der wrote:
By my count, sciberbia has hammered Intact, just over an hour remaining.
(See marv, I can spell his name just fine.)
I'd say that is from someone who has talked to 'marv' and not our coaches.
Hopeless1der is scum along with Kier.
Since we are in a situation where we will lose if we mislynch we lose (assuming there are no brilliant medic saves, which seem unlikely at this point) I want to talk about town reads too. It doesn't matter if scum know who we see as town, we all need to have each others' reads. Town only benefits from more information and I want to get as much of it out there as possible.
The person I want to talk about is Myles, since I have made a case against him in the past as have JH and others, I think he is a possible mislynch target.
Myles is, as far as I can tell, town. (look at me, spelling out that my opinions are my opinions, I wish I had more information that I could give you but I don't and I can't).
So, as you know if you have read this thread, I have stated in the past that Bob is scummy. I don't think so anymore, and not just because he was celebrating Canada day with me.
On July 04 2012 04:04 BobTheLob wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2012 03:59 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
EBWOP: I should clarify what I mean when I say I'm very nervous about the lynch. Town play has not been good this game, which has left us with more scummy-looking players than there are actual scum. Assuming there's even one PBU in this game who knows how to play without looking like the second coming of GG.Nore, we're lynching into a population that includes way too many friendlies for comfort. Even making the best reads we can, we're taking a percentage gamble that I'm really not happy about. *Twitch* That was what I was saying before and I got bitched at for it....
Bob is actually right to bring this up, we jumped on him for the exact same thought process which was worded more poorly in his case. Bringing attention to this serves no purpose if he is scum. He wouldn't want to make us re-look at his mistakes. But he focuses on them to bring attention to another player. Admitting to his own mistakes and using them to make a point, albeit a simple one, is a townie behaviour. It is also his post
On July 04 2012 12:11 BobTheLob wrote:
I've more or less given up, I dug myself a hole. I realize that I look scummy as hell and there is very little I can do to convince you otherwise because if I suddenly got a whole bunch of shit put together and did some epic reads it would just be me doing damage control and still look scummy. Now IMO Prome is scum and that's who I'll be voting tomorrow if we don't get anything better. Also I realize that I'm dead sooooooo... Yeah FML.
onto which Keir bandwaggons. Though he totally fails to mention that he isn't posting something revolutionary. I think that if Kier is scum Bob is town and, since I am sure that Kier is scum I am also sure that Bob is town. Saying what Bob said above as scum would be dumb, I am one of the most active town players and have had 0 suspicion on me all game so why would he say this? Only if he were town who actually thought that I was scum, he is wrong but green as far as I can see.
To some up this post for those that don't have the patience to wade through it:
Kier=Scum
Hopeless=Scum
Bob=Town
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+ Show Spoiler +On July 05 2012 10:55 Promethelax wrote:Okay, clearly Keirathi thinks I am scum and a reasonable and well thought out response doesn't change his mind. I am not going to bother to defend myself against this since Kier won't listen to reason. If he is going to force everyone to mislynch me I want to get as many of my reads and the reasons for them into the thread so that when I flip green you townies will have more to work with, assuming that a medic protects someone tonight! Come on medic no one will look down on you for batting .333. So, Keir, if you have anything that you want me to respond to ask me directly. If you just want to suggest that I am scum for no good reason I'm not going to bother to respond. We won't gain anything by me shitting up the thread with my defense so I'm going to give you solid reads instead, if you are town I hope you'll realize that I am too; if you aren't I don't really care what you think. If you really have read my filter so closely I would expect you to have realized that I am not red. So first: my scum reads. I am leaving Fencar out of this because he has been replaced but I still think he is probably scum and I hope that we all give his replacement a cold hard look. Blind-Rawr, now Keir, is scum. I never really thought that Blindy was was defiantly scum, or more accurately I never looked at him because there was nothing to look at. His filter is...ten posts long after the start of the game until the point where he was replaced. He never gave us a single read and he could have either been new at town or at scum. He seemed scummy by virtue of his lurking and his lack of reads but he was never my scummiest read and I never followed through on looking into him really. The thing is as soon as he was replaced we got an active player with grandiose reads covering everyone in the thread. He came in here and told us to ignore the scummy vibe everyone had on Blindy and to totally pay attention to his reads. His reads that put me on the top of a scum list. Now like the reast of you, barring scum and dt if we have one, I have a total of one mod-confirmed townie alive in this game. That townie is me and I feel like I have done a good job in that role to work for town and to find mafia, this is reflected in the town read that everyone had on me until Kierth came into the thread, until he showed up no one thought I was mafia and I don't believe that anyone does now. Every townie in this game has a town read on me because of my behaviour. Keir says it is because of how much I post. My filter is three pages long. Count 'em. You know who else has a three page filter? Statistically speaking you do. Myles is on three pages, so is Umlaut, and Hopeless is as well. JH has four pages and he died n1. Lurkers like Bob, Iamimperfection and even Anacletus have two page filters. So why does Kier attack me with this facitius reason? I can't think of any reason for town to distort the facts like this; I can think of a reason for scum to do it though, they want me dead. There has to be a reason that scum killed Sciberbia and not me since we were the most active and the guys who were most well thought of as green. I assume everyone else had a town read on Sciberbia since I did. The only reason I can think of is that I had more of a filter and therefore more things that could be called scummy by scum players or that Sciberbia had better scum reads than me. I wasn't sure that Blindy was scum but Sciberbia sure thought so, you can tell by the way he voted for him: Show nested quote +On July 03 2012 14:48 sciberbia wrote:
Okay it is just about time for me to call it a day.
I quickly read through the filters of Hopeless1der and Fencar. On first read, Fencar actually looks townie to me. I would really not like to lynch him today, and I hope he is not modkilled.
I'm not so sure about Hopeless1der. He looks scummy for the first half of his filter, and then it's like he turns on a switch and starts posting some good analysis on Intact and others. I want to see more from him and don't think he's a good lynch today.
Who I think we should lynch today
Fencar and Intact seem to be the popular targets.
My cursory opinion is that Fencar is town. Also, he is getting modkilled/replaced. I'd really not like to lynch him today.
I think Intact might be scum, but I'm not convinced. I think we have better targets, and I'd not like to lynch Intact today.
As I've said, both BobTheLob and BLinD-RawR look quite scummy to me. I'd be shocked if neither was scum and wouldn't be surprised if both are scum. I feel strongly that we should lynch one of these two today. I feel stronger about BLinD-Rawr.
My schedule
I'm going to sleep now, and then I'll be at work from the time I get up through the deadline. So I can't do any more significant reading or posting until after the lynch. I assure you that I will be following the thread from work though. You can count on me changing my vote to the majority candidate before the deadline if that is what is needed to prevent a No-Lynch.
But for now, I'm feeling more confident about BLinD-Rawr than BobTheLob, so I will
##Vote BlinD-Rawr Keir's one big post is a re-hash of everything that has happened in thread. He calls it his notes and there are a few observations thrown in but it feels like a a huge post that screams “look at me! Look at me! I am totally contributing!” without actually contributing. I'll link the post and you can read it over for yourself, it is so big that I skimmed it this morning when I had to run to work but it actually doesn't add as much as something of that length should. In that long long post Kier calls Sciberbia 25% lilely to be scum. And when Sciberbia dies and flips town he says: Show nested quote +On July 05 2012 06:10 Keirathi wrote:
gg sciberbia. You were my best town read! look at that attempt to gain towncred. Sciberbia was my best town read too but you'll notice that I acted on that before his death. Although I guess that is true based on what he said, 25% is the lowest chance of flipping scum he gives followed by two thirties and everyone else has a 50% chance or greater, talk about hedging your bets and leaving yourself an out. So I think that Sciberbia was right, BlinD-Rawr was scum and so is kier. My bet is that Hopeless1der is also scum. I have already made a case about him and here it is Show nested quote +On July 01 2012 09:33 Promethelax wrote:Between On June 29 2012 07:17 Hopeless1der wrote:
Let's suppose many people neglect to post...if we can't get a decent case going, are we cool to lynch lurkers?
Everyone on board? and On June 29 2012 07:40 Hopeless1der wrote:On June 29 2012 07:19 JingleHell wrote:
Actually, if many people neglect to post, it's the worst time to lynch lurkers, so why would you suggest it, Myles? Mathematically, if 6 lurk, then, if we assume 100% of the scum are also amongst the lurkers, we're already at a coinflip to get a scum. Very true. At that point its useless to policy lurkers. Now is the time to get this crap out of the way though. I do think we need some kind of policy to follow since the game is majority Lynch. Let's figure out our options and get the scumhunt on. something happened. Something more than the passage of 23 minutes. Looking into the thread it seems that it was JH and his actually bad post that convinced Myles to change his mind. See a 50% chance of hitting scum on d1 is good. I would take that on any d1 since clearly leaving us to our own devices didn't work very well. Since all that happened to change Myles' mind in thread was that one poorly thought out post I wonder if there wasn't something outside the thread that was posted, maybe in scum qt? No proof but something I'm taking into account. He follows this with a lot of useless one-liners and non-committal attacks against both Fencer and Anacletus. After wading through the mess he has made of his posting I also found this: On June 30 2012 06:39 Hopeless1der wrote:On June 30 2012 06:17 Fencer710 wrote:Single words are fine, though. Damn lack of edit button increasing my post count artifically. It's like accidently opening no-gas in a matchup where you normally open gas because you forgot his race, then forced to all-in because you don't know how to open gasless FE. Argh...Thanks for derailing us hard ghost. It's time to get back to scumhunting now? and for future reference, the quoted post is usually seen as a complete waste of time and reason for suspicion. where he says things that sound townie but doesn't do anything with those things. The next post I want you to pay attention to is this one: On June 30 2012 12:45 Hopeless1der wrote:On June 30 2012 12:20 Fencer710 wrote:
OK, guys. I have to go to bed. My closing thoughts in case I don't make the deadline tomorrow:
Remember, 7 people have to decide to lynch the same guy in order for there to be a lynch. It's me, Anacletus, or nothing.
You can be meta all you want in your head, but it doesn't change what actually goes on in the thread.
Remember to read and reread all the posts! I'll take you over Anacletus today. You're posting is extremely unproductive to me. It doesnt seem all that scummy, but its a massive hindrance when you don't provide anything for discussion, just constantly droning about how your new and guides are super cool. ##Vote: Fencer710 which brought my attention on to our hopeless friend. From this point on he knows he is being watched and his posts change slightly. After this point Wonder never hard defends himself, instead he stops posting one-liners and tries to look more active, it looks to me like a guy who knows he is under suspicsion and wants to change that. That is not a town trait. When one of us comes under suspicsion our goal should be to act in a pro-town way to hunt scum, instead 1der has posted in a pro 1der way and not attempted to hunt scum at all. So, if that hasn't onvinced you, and I'm not sure it should I would like to give you the crowning jewl in the hopeless1der is a hopeless scum player case. On July 01 2012 02:21 Hopeless1der wrote:The biggest scumtell I've had so far is the whole mislynch vs no lynch. To that I submit the following: WORST CASE SCENARIO No Lynch Day1 + Show Spoiler +
Day1: 9 Town, 3 Scum (33.333% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch)
No Lynch, Mafia hit on town
Day2: 8 Town, 3 Scum (37.5% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch
(Mis)Lynch Day1 + Show Spoiler +Day1: 9 Town, 3 Scum (33.333% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch)
Lynch Town, Mafia hit on town
Day2: 7 Town, 3 Scum (42.8% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch) Conclusion: Mislynch Bad. No Lynch Worse. On July 01 2012 02:09 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
SNIP
My read on Anacletus isn't changed at this point, though; I still think he's got a good chance of flipping scum. I'm a bit concerned that there might be too many players who will be inactive between now and the lynch, in which case I'll be switching my vote back to Anacletus to prevent a no-lynch. WTF YOU ALREADY KNOW THIS WHY AM I DEFENDING MYSELF TO YOU?? Let's look at his conclusion: it is bad to have a no lynch because if we kill of a town statistics suggests our next random lynch will be more likely to hit scum. Remember before this game started I said I was sorry if I was dumber than two rocks making love? I now present you with one of the two rocks required. Hopeless is either scum or playing an anti-town game because he has no idea what he is doing. Since the rest of us newbs figured it out I would guess it is the former rather than the latter. On top of this he has continued to post in a scummy was and when I came under attack he soft defended me I think that he knows that I am green and knows that if I am lynched having defended me will look good. Once I flip green the town will probably lynch Kier (assuming we get our medic save at night, we may as well plan to succeed since planning for failure won't help us) and Keir has said that Hopeless is his next scummiest read after me. Hopeless has defended me. I believe that the scum plan is to get me mislynched in return for probably just straight winning and, if they don't win, losing one of their own and confirming a second as town in everyone's eyes. He also pushes Umlaut while Keir calls him town, it looks to me like scum setting up the perfect follow up mislynch after both Kier and I have flipped. It is my firm belief that Hopeless is scum. His play seemed stupid but it changed drastically, he says he got coaching but I bet it was from marvellosity and not xsksc or artanis[xp], note his familiar use of marvellosity's name here: Show nested quote +On July 04 2012 04:54 Hopeless1der wrote:
By my count, sciberbia has hammered Intact, just over an hour remaining.
(See marv, I can spell his name just fine.) I'd say that is from someone who has talked to 'marv' and not our coaches. Hopeless1der is scum along with Kier. Since we are in a situation where we will lose if we mislynch we lose (assuming there are no brilliant medic saves, which seem unlikely at this point) I want to talk about town reads too. It doesn't matter if scum know who we see as town, we all need to have each others' reads. Town only benefits from more information and I want to get as much of it out there as possible. The person I want to talk about is Myles, since I have made a case against him in the past as have JH and others, I think he is a possible mislynch target. Myles is, as far as I can tell, town. (look at me, spelling out that my opinions are my opinions, I wish I had more information that I could give you but I don't and I can't). So, as you know if you have read this thread, I have stated in the past that Bob is scummy. I don't think so anymore, and not just because he was celebrating Canada day with me. Show nested quote +On July 04 2012 04:04 BobTheLob wrote:On July 04 2012 03:59 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
EBWOP: I should clarify what I mean when I say I'm very nervous about the lynch. Town play has not been good this game, which has left us with more scummy-looking players than there are actual scum. Assuming there's even one PBU in this game who knows how to play without looking like the second coming of GG.Nore, we're lynching into a population that includes way too many friendlies for comfort. Even making the best reads we can, we're taking a percentage gamble that I'm really not happy about. *Twitch* That was what I was saying before and I got bitched at for it.... Bob is actually right to bring this up, we jumped on him for the exact same thought process which was worded more poorly in his case. Bringing attention to this serves no purpose if he is scum. He wouldn't want to make us re-look at his mistakes. But he focuses on them to bring attention to another player. Admitting to his own mistakes and using them to make a point, albeit a simple one, is a townie behaviour. It is also his post Show nested quote +On July 04 2012 12:11 BobTheLob wrote:
I've more or less given up, I dug myself a hole. I realize that I look scummy as hell and there is very little I can do to convince you otherwise because if I suddenly got a whole bunch of shit put together and did some epic reads it would just be me doing damage control and still look scummy. Now IMO Prome is scum and that's who I'll be voting tomorrow if we don't get anything better. Also I realize that I'm dead sooooooo... Yeah FML. onto which Keir bandwaggons. Though he totally fails to mention that he isn't posting something revolutionary. I think that if Kier is scum Bob is town and, since I am sure that Kier is scum I am also sure that Bob is town. Saying what Bob said above as scum would be dumb, I am one of the most active town players and have had 0 suspicion on me all game so why would he say this? Only if he were town who actually thought that I was scum, he is wrong but green as far as I can see. To some up this post for those that don't have the patience to wade through it: Kier=Scum Hopeless=Scum Bob=Town
While I thank you for the vote of confidence I still think that you are iffy. Blind/Kier is almost impossible to judge right now, and Hopeless is IMO scum. For now I'll give you the BOTD but I'm still paying attention and trying to rationalize you being scum to the others.
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On July 05 2012 10:55 Promethelax wrote:Okay, clearly Keirathi thinks I am scum and a reasonable and well thought out response doesn't change his mind. I am not going to bother to defend myself against this since Kier won't listen to reason. If he is going to force everyone to mislynch me I want to get as many of my reads and the reasons for them into the thread so that when I flip green you townies will have more to work with, assuming that a medic protects someone tonight! Come on medic no one will look down on you for batting .333. So, Keir, if you have anything that you want me to respond to ask me directly. If you just want to suggest that I am scum for no good reason I'm not going to bother to respond. We won't gain anything by me shitting up the thread with my defense so I'm going to give you solid reads instead, if you are town I hope you'll realize that I am too; if you aren't I don't really care what you think. If you really have read my filter so closely I would expect you to have realized that I am not red. So first: my scum reads. I am leaving Fencar out of this because he has been replaced but I still think he is probably scum and I hope that we all give his replacement a cold hard look. Blind-Rawr, now Keir, is scum. I never really thought that Blindy was was defiantly scum, or more accurately I never looked at him because there was nothing to look at. His filter is...ten posts long after the start of the game until the point where he was replaced. He never gave us a single read and he could have either been new at town or at scum. He seemed scummy by virtue of his lurking and his lack of reads but he was never my scummiest read and I never followed through on looking into him really. The thing is as soon as he was replaced we got an active player with grandiose reads covering everyone in the thread. He came in here and told us to ignore the scummy vibe everyone had on Blindy and to totally pay attention to his reads. His reads that put me on the top of a scum list. Now like the reast of you, barring scum and dt if we have one, I have a total of one mod-confirmed townie alive in this game. That townie is me and I feel like I have done a good job in that role to work for town and to find mafia, this is reflected in the town read that everyone had on me until Kierth came into the thread, until he showed up no one thought I was mafia and I don't believe that anyone does now. Every townie in this game has a town read on me because of my behaviour. Keir says it is because of how much I post. My filter is three pages long. Count 'em. You know who else has a three page filter? Statistically speaking you do. Myles is on three pages, so is Umlaut, and Hopeless is as well. JH has four pages and he died n1. Lurkers like Bob, Iamimperfection and even Anacletus have two page filters. So why does Kier attack me with this facitius reason? I can't think of any reason for town to distort the facts like this; I can think of a reason for scum to do it though, they want me dead. There has to be a reason that scum killed Sciberbia and not me since we were the most active and the guys who were most well thought of as green. I assume everyone else had a town read on Sciberbia since I did. The only reason I can think of is that I had more of a filter and therefore more things that could be called scummy by scum players or that Sciberbia had better scum reads than me. I wasn't sure that Blindy was scum but Sciberbia sure thought so, you can tell by the way he voted for him: Show nested quote +On July 03 2012 14:48 sciberbia wrote:
Okay it is just about time for me to call it a day.
I quickly read through the filters of Hopeless1der and Fencar. On first read, Fencar actually looks townie to me. I would really not like to lynch him today, and I hope he is not modkilled.
I'm not so sure about Hopeless1der. He looks scummy for the first half of his filter, and then it's like he turns on a switch and starts posting some good analysis on Intact and others. I want to see more from him and don't think he's a good lynch today.
Who I think we should lynch today
Fencar and Intact seem to be the popular targets.
My cursory opinion is that Fencar is town. Also, he is getting modkilled/replaced. I'd really not like to lynch him today.
I think Intact might be scum, but I'm not convinced. I think we have better targets, and I'd not like to lynch Intact today.
As I've said, both BobTheLob and BLinD-RawR look quite scummy to me. I'd be shocked if neither was scum and wouldn't be surprised if both are scum. I feel strongly that we should lynch one of these two today. I feel stronger about BLinD-Rawr.
My schedule
I'm going to sleep now, and then I'll be at work from the time I get up through the deadline. So I can't do any more significant reading or posting until after the lynch. I assure you that I will be following the thread from work though. You can count on me changing my vote to the majority candidate before the deadline if that is what is needed to prevent a No-Lynch.
But for now, I'm feeling more confident about BLinD-Rawr than BobTheLob, so I will
##Vote BlinD-Rawr Keir's one big post is a re-hash of everything that has happened in thread. He calls it his notes and there are a few observations thrown in but it feels like a a huge post that screams “look at me! Look at me! I am totally contributing!” without actually contributing. I'll link the post and you can read it over for yourself, it is so big that I skimmed it this morning when I had to run to work but it actually doesn't add as much as something of that length should. In that long long post Kier calls Sciberbia 25% lilely to be scum. And when Sciberbia dies and flips town he says: Show nested quote +On July 05 2012 06:10 Keirathi wrote:
gg sciberbia. You were my best town read! look at that attempt to gain towncred. Sciberbia was my best town read too but you'll notice that I acted on that before his death. Although I guess that is true based on what he said, 25% is the lowest chance of flipping scum he gives followed by two thirties and everyone else has a 50% chance or greater, talk about hedging your bets and leaving yourself an out. So I think that Sciberbia was right, BlinD-Rawr was scum and so is kier. My bet is that Hopeless1der is also scum. I have already made a case about him and here it is Show nested quote +On July 01 2012 09:33 Promethelax wrote:Between On June 29 2012 07:17 Hopeless1der wrote:
Let's suppose many people neglect to post...if we can't get a decent case going, are we cool to lynch lurkers?
Everyone on board? and On June 29 2012 07:40 Hopeless1der wrote:On June 29 2012 07:19 JingleHell wrote:
Actually, if many people neglect to post, it's the worst time to lynch lurkers, so why would you suggest it, Myles? Mathematically, if 6 lurk, then, if we assume 100% of the scum are also amongst the lurkers, we're already at a coinflip to get a scum. Very true. At that point its useless to policy lurkers. Now is the time to get this crap out of the way though. I do think we need some kind of policy to follow since the game is majority Lynch. Let's figure out our options and get the scumhunt on. something happened. Something more than the passage of 23 minutes. Looking into the thread it seems that it was JH and his actually bad post that convinced Myles to change his mind. See a 50% chance of hitting scum on d1 is good. I would take that on any d1 since clearly leaving us to our own devices didn't work very well. Since all that happened to change Myles' mind in thread was that one poorly thought out post I wonder if there wasn't something outside the thread that was posted, maybe in scum qt? No proof but something I'm taking into account. He follows this with a lot of useless one-liners and non-committal attacks against both Fencer and Anacletus. After wading through the mess he has made of his posting I also found this: On June 30 2012 06:39 Hopeless1der wrote:On June 30 2012 06:17 Fencer710 wrote:Single words are fine, though. Damn lack of edit button increasing my post count artifically. It's like accidently opening no-gas in a matchup where you normally open gas because you forgot his race, then forced to all-in because you don't know how to open gasless FE. Argh...Thanks for derailing us hard ghost. It's time to get back to scumhunting now? and for future reference, the quoted post is usually seen as a complete waste of time and reason for suspicion. where he says things that sound townie but doesn't do anything with those things. The next post I want you to pay attention to is this one: On June 30 2012 12:45 Hopeless1der wrote:On June 30 2012 12:20 Fencer710 wrote:
OK, guys. I have to go to bed. My closing thoughts in case I don't make the deadline tomorrow:
Remember, 7 people have to decide to lynch the same guy in order for there to be a lynch. It's me, Anacletus, or nothing.
You can be meta all you want in your head, but it doesn't change what actually goes on in the thread.
Remember to read and reread all the posts! I'll take you over Anacletus today. You're posting is extremely unproductive to me. It doesnt seem all that scummy, but its a massive hindrance when you don't provide anything for discussion, just constantly droning about how your new and guides are super cool. ##Vote: Fencer710 which brought my attention on to our hopeless friend. From this point on he knows he is being watched and his posts change slightly. After this point Wonder never hard defends himself, instead he stops posting one-liners and tries to look more active, it looks to me like a guy who knows he is under suspicsion and wants to change that. That is not a town trait. When one of us comes under suspicsion our goal should be to act in a pro-town way to hunt scum, instead 1der has posted in a pro 1der way and not attempted to hunt scum at all. So, if that hasn't onvinced you, and I'm not sure it should I would like to give you the crowning jewl in the hopeless1der is a hopeless scum player case. On July 01 2012 02:21 Hopeless1der wrote:The biggest scumtell I've had so far is the whole mislynch vs no lynch. To that I submit the following: WORST CASE SCENARIO No Lynch Day1 + Show Spoiler +
Day1: 9 Town, 3 Scum (33.333% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch)
No Lynch, Mafia hit on town
Day2: 8 Town, 3 Scum (37.5% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch
(Mis)Lynch Day1 + Show Spoiler +Day1: 9 Town, 3 Scum (33.333% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch)
Lynch Town, Mafia hit on town
Day2: 7 Town, 3 Scum (42.8% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch) Conclusion: Mislynch Bad. No Lynch Worse. On July 01 2012 02:09 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
SNIP
My read on Anacletus isn't changed at this point, though; I still think he's got a good chance of flipping scum. I'm a bit concerned that there might be too many players who will be inactive between now and the lynch, in which case I'll be switching my vote back to Anacletus to prevent a no-lynch. WTF YOU ALREADY KNOW THIS WHY AM I DEFENDING MYSELF TO YOU?? Let's look at his conclusion: it is bad to have a no lynch because if we kill of a town statistics suggests our next random lynch will be more likely to hit scum. Remember before this game started I said I was sorry if I was dumber than two rocks making love? I now present you with one of the two rocks required. Hopeless is either scum or playing an anti-town game because he has no idea what he is doing. Since the rest of us newbs figured it out I would guess it is the former rather than the latter. On top of this he has continued to post in a scummy was and when I came under attack he soft defended me I think that he knows that I am green and knows that if I am lynched having defended me will look good. Once I flip green the town will probably lynch Kier (assuming we get our medic save at night, we may as well plan to succeed since planning for failure won't help us) and Keir has said that Hopeless is his next scummiest read after me. Hopeless has defended me. I believe that the scum plan is to get me mislynched in return for probably just straight winning and, if they don't win, losing one of their own and confirming a second as town in everyone's eyes. He also pushes Umlaut while Keir calls him town, it looks to me like scum setting up the perfect follow up mislynch after both Kier and I have flipped. It is my firm belief that Hopeless is scum. His play seemed stupid but it changed drastically, he says he got coaching but I bet it was from marvellosity and not xsksc or artanis[xp], note his familiar use of marvellosity's name here: Show nested quote +On July 04 2012 04:54 Hopeless1der wrote:
By my count, sciberbia has hammered Intact, just over an hour remaining.
(See marv, I can spell his name just fine.) I'd say that is from someone who has talked to 'marv' and not our coaches. Hopeless1der is scum along with Kier. Since we are in a situation where we will lose if we mislynch we lose (assuming there are no brilliant medic saves, which seem unlikely at this point) I want to talk about town reads too. It doesn't matter if scum know who we see as town, we all need to have each others' reads. Town only benefits from more information and I want to get as much of it out there as possible. The person I want to talk about is Myles, since I have made a case against him in the past as have JH and others, I think he is a possible mislynch target. Myles is, as far as I can tell, town. (look at me, spelling out that my opinions are my opinions, I wish I had more information that I could give you but I don't and I can't). So, as you know if you have read this thread, I have stated in the past that Bob is scummy. I don't think so anymore, and not just because he was celebrating Canada day with me. Show nested quote +On July 04 2012 04:04 BobTheLob wrote:On July 04 2012 03:59 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
EBWOP: I should clarify what I mean when I say I'm very nervous about the lynch. Town play has not been good this game, which has left us with more scummy-looking players than there are actual scum. Assuming there's even one PBU in this game who knows how to play without looking like the second coming of GG.Nore, we're lynching into a population that includes way too many friendlies for comfort. Even making the best reads we can, we're taking a percentage gamble that I'm really not happy about. *Twitch* That was what I was saying before and I got bitched at for it.... Bob is actually right to bring this up, we jumped on him for the exact same thought process which was worded more poorly in his case. Bringing attention to this serves no purpose if he is scum. He wouldn't want to make us re-look at his mistakes. But he focuses on them to bring attention to another player. Admitting to his own mistakes and using them to make a point, albeit a simple one, is a townie behaviour. It is also his post Show nested quote +On July 04 2012 12:11 BobTheLob wrote:
I've more or less given up, I dug myself a hole. I realize that I look scummy as hell and there is very little I can do to convince you otherwise because if I suddenly got a whole bunch of shit put together and did some epic reads it would just be me doing damage control and still look scummy. Now IMO Prome is scum and that's who I'll be voting tomorrow if we don't get anything better. Also I realize that I'm dead sooooooo... Yeah FML. onto which Keir bandwaggons. Though he totally fails to mention that he isn't posting something revolutionary. I think that if Kier is scum Bob is town and, since I am sure that Kier is scum I am also sure that Bob is town. Saying what Bob said above as scum would be dumb, I am one of the most active town players and have had 0 suspicion on me all game so why would he say this? Only if he were town who actually thought that I was scum, he is wrong but green as far as I can see. To some up this post for those that don't have the patience to wade through it: Kier=Scum Hopeless=Scum Bob=Town
Prom I'm sorry you still feel that I'm scum. I thought I'd really improved my posting since Jingle was NK'd. My soft defence of you was just a pre-emptive defence on my own logic in my read against AmericanUmlaut. Unfortunately for me, I'm leaving shortly for the night, so I'll try to get all my reads out on the table tomorrow.
Also for the response to marvellosity, he'd posted this shortly before that comment.
On July 04 2012 02:40 marvellosity wrote:
Why does no-one ever spell sciberbia's name correctly? :<
Sorry for having a sense of humor about it. Yes it was a no content post, but it was so close to the deadline and I didn't really have anything new to add to the discussions, just passing time until the lynch.
In the meantime, is it worth No-Lynching today? We get another day to look for scum and it buys time to get a better read on miltonkram and keirathi. It also gives our potential blue(s) another day to get information. Right now I'm inclined to believe its our best course of action as town is guaranteed to not lose for one more day.
##VOTE: No Lynch
Townie remaining count on the front page should be 5 instead of 6.
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Zzzz. I really don't want to start an OMGUS shouting match. That was not my intentions with my notes. I want everyone to discuss my points on everyone else, no tunnel the points I made against them.
On July 05 2012 10:55 Promethelax wrote:
Okay, clearly Keirathi thinks I am scum and a reasonable and well thought out response doesn't change his mind. I am not going to bother to defend myself against this since Kier won't listen to reason.
Your post was well thought out, but I disagree with well reasoned. You didn't address a lot of points I had against you, and didn't address any of my counter-points after I responded to you.
On July 05 2012 10:55 Promethelax wrote:
Now like the reast of you, barring scum and dt if we have one, I have a total of one mod-confirmed townie alive in this game.That townie is me and I feel like I have done a good job in that role to work for town and to find mafia, this is reflected in the town read that everyone had on me until Kierth came into the thread
That's the problem. You are NOT mod-confirmed townie. At best, you express occasional pro-town sentiments. At worst, you fling the mod-confirmed townie statement around like you're trying to convince everyone that you are.
I didn't come into the thread and read the end first, then go back to the beginning and try to fit everyone's perceptions into my reads. I started from the beginning, found things about you were scummy, then you started trying to blend in.
On July 05 2012 10:55 Promethelax wrote:
Keir says it is because of how much I post. My filter is three pages long. Count 'em. You know who else has a three page filter? Statistically speaking you do. Myles is on three pages, so is Umlaut, and Hopeless is as well. JH has four pages and he died n1. Lurkers like Bob, Iamimperfection and even Anacletus have two page filters. So why does Kier attack me with this facitius reason?
Sure, I'll play.
Myles - 47
Umlaut - 46
Bob - 25
Perfection - 26
Prom - 49
Hopeless - 49
That statistically puts you at the top of the activity charts. I never claimed you were so much more active than everyone else, I just said you've gotten a get-out-of-jail-free card because you've been keeping the thread moving.
On July 05 2012 10:55 Promethelax wrote:
Keir's one big post is a re-hash of everything that has happened in thread. He calls it his notes and there are a few observations thrown in but it feels like a a huge post that screams “look at me! Look at me! I am totally contributing!” without actually contributing. I'll link the post and you can read it over for yourself, it is so big that I skimmed it this morning when I had to run to work but it actually doesn't add as much as something of that length should.
You are right to an extent. My notes were basically just a summary of the scummy things that have happened in the thread, with notes/thoughts thrown in where appropriate.
My goal was to spark discussion on everyone, not keep channeling the first person someone makes a case against. That hasn't worked out for town very well.
On July 05 2012 10:55 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2012 04:54 Hopeless1der wrote:
By my count, sciberbia has hammered Intact, just over an hour remaining.
(See marv, I can spell his name just fine.) I'd say that is from someone who has talked to 'marv' and not our coaches.
I present to you:
On July 04 2012 02:40 marvellosity wrote:
Why does no-one ever spell sciberbia's name correctly? :<
Do you even read the thread? Filters are good and all, but you miss context if that's all you look at.
On July 05 2012 10:55 Promethelax wrote:
Keir has said that Hopeless is his next scummiest read after me.
No, I said Hopeless was my third scummiest read. I said Myles was my second scummiest read.
If I go with my gut about you being scum, then your defense of Myles without actually making any arguments for him almost certainly makes him scum too.
Now for my conclusion: If I was mafia, why would it make sense for my to NK sciberbia last night AND during the next day argue against the person who has the most townie support? It would make way, way more sense for me to kill you, then try to push a case on Bob or Myles (whom you said are town) who have had people making some scummy reads on them throughout the game. You basically said as much in the last line of your defense of Bob.
Now that that's out of the way, I hope more people will come in and give some of their views. I highly encourage you to take a hard look at EVERYONE. Not just the people you think are scum. Make a small write-up with little pros and cons of everyone. Just, for the love of god, don't be mute.
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EBWOP: I missed a point again
On July 05 2012 10:55 Promethelax wrote:
25% is the lowest chance of flipping scum he gives followed by two thirties and everyone else has a 50% chance or greater, talk about hedging your bets and leaving yourself an out.
I had 3 people over 50, and 4 people under 50 (with a hard no-read on Fencar/Milton).
And you wanted to call me out for distorting facts.
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On July 05 2012 13:11 Keirathi wrote:EBWOP: I missed a point again Show nested quote +On July 05 2012 10:55 Promethelax wrote:
25% is the lowest chance of flipping scum he gives followed by two thirties and everyone else has a 50% chance or greater, talk about hedging your bets and leaving yourself an out.
I had 3 people over 50, and 4 people under 50 (with a hard no-read on Fencar/Milton). And you wanted to call me out for distorting facts.
Ah, I'm sorry. I must have missed one on my speed read. My fiance was getting mad at me for wasting time on Mafia when I could be with her. She is asleep now though so I'll try to reply to your post since you clearly want to continue this.
I didn't want to start an OMGUS war either, you understand why I'm sure, us going after each other doesn't serve any purpose for town.
Don't worry though, I won't be silent. It is not in my nature to be silent while you throw out false accusations at me.
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On July 05 2012 13:17 Promethelax wrote:
I'll try to reply to your post since you clearly want to continue this.
That's not what I want at all. You were right, town doesn't gain much by the two of us arguing back and forth.
I will fully admit that I might be wrong about you. That's why I'm asking for other people to come in with their own thoughts about you, and about everyone else.
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Okay, you want to refrain from defending ourselves and have us look at everyone but ourselves? Fine, as I've already stated I don't really feel that it is useful for me to defend myself against baseless accusations. Instead I will look at your reads on other people/
There are some things in your cases that are based on things which I can see could seem scummy. You need to lay off with telling me that I am not mod-confirmed. I get it I'm not mod-confirmed to you, what I am saying is that I am mod-confirmed to me. I got a role pm, it told me that I'm townie, it came from a mod.
So, since you want me to ignore your case on me I'll look at your other reads. I've already posted about Bob, You, Fencar and Hopeless. That leaves Myles, iamimperfection, AmericanUlaut and me.
AmericanUmlaut: I wasn't sure on him for a while but he started really contributing and making a difference in the thread. As you mentioned I wanted a dt to check him early because he was pretty null to me, the way I would play dt is to check the guys I don't have good reads on thus gaining the most information possible. His defense against your post seems really tight, maybe I am biased because I know that your attack against me is baseless so I feel that your attack against him is too. His points on your case about his vote switching to ensure lynch and about how Intact was likely to be a red power role actually point more towards you being scum. Your attacks require a clear misunderstanding of what people say to have any traction. So Umlaut looks townie to me. I didn't chose to write about him in my first post because I felt I had already made my position clear on him and I was trying to get my reads into the thread to make sure they were heard.
Myles: I had thought he was scum early on, his posting improved and he became null for me, I was planning on talking about him earlier but die to time constraints had to leave some people out of my reads. My opinion of him has changed a little because of his reaction to the night kill. Since the night kill he has only posted in frustration which, in my opinion, would be a really easy thing to fake as scum. He hasn't given us anything and he hasn't participated in discussions. Because of his refusal to be a part of town when we need it most he has slipped back into the scum column. He posted four times in four hours and added no things to the thread.
Iamimprefection: is too minimalistic with his reads. His case on Bob is the only piece of good detective work he does. I put him on the very slightly scummy side of things but he is mostly null to me. I think he is probably just a bad town player because I have redder reads on other people but if I am wrong on Kierthi, Hopeless and Myles (with Fencar totally able to take the place of Myles as soon as he exists again.) than iamimperfection might fit in here somewhere.
Me: I'm town aligned.
There you have the brief write up of all my reads. I'm probably going to bed now. I'll be awake tomorrow morning to post once more before I'm off to work for a nice easy nine hour day.
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On July 05 2012 13:43 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2012 13:17 Promethelax wrote:
I'll try to reply to your post since you clearly want to continue this.
That's not what I want at all. You were right, town doesn't gain much by the two of us arguing back and forth. I will fully admit that I might be wrong about you. That's why I'm asking for other people to come in with their own thoughts about you, and about everyone else.
So work with me, reply to my cases on literally everyone in the thread. You posted your notes and I posted my reads. If you really are a deluded townie (hell, anything is possible) we're on the same team. Let's work together put our arms around each others' shoulders and smile for the camera after we win this thing. How about it?
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On July 05 2012 13:46 Promethelax wrote:
how Intact was likely to be a red power role actually point more towards you being scum. Your attacks require a clear misunderstanding of what people say to have any traction.
I freely admitted that I did misunderstand him. My initial read through, for some reason I thought be meant blue roles, rather than red power roles. Once he clarified what he meant, I agreed with the sentiment.
As far as the rest of your position on Umlaut, I mostly agree. However, I wasn't attacking him (in fact, his reply to my notes post felt a bit too aggressive, when I had basically given him my seal of approval), and my points on him (and you) aren't baseless. My conclusions might be wrong, but I didn't just make shit up.
On July 05 2012 13:46 Promethelax wrote:
Myles: I had thought he was scum early on, his posting improved and he became null for me, I was planning on talking about him earlier but die to time constraints had to leave some people out of my reads. My opinion of him has changed a little because of his reaction to the night kill. Since the night kill he has only posted in frustration which, in my opinion, would be a really easy thing to fake as scum. He hasn't given us anything and he hasn't participated in discussions. Because of his refusal to be a part of town when we need it most he has slipped back into the scum column. He posted four times in four hours and added no things to the thread.
Huh? Just TWO posts ago you said you believed Myles to be town. + Show Spoiler +Myles is, as far as I can tell, town. (look at me, spelling out that my opinions are my opinions, I wish I had more information that I could give you but I don't and I can't).
And re iamperfection: yea, I mostly agree that he hasn't been active enough to really make a solid read on. Second fewest posts of all the active players, and who I found the least amount of actual useful information about (ie, i basically only have 3 lines of stuff about him). He's pretty null to me as well, but he really has to come out and  O* something. This is crunch time, we need everyone participating.
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On July 05 2012 14:19 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2012 13:46 Promethelax wrote:
how Intact was likely to be a red power role actually point more towards you being scum. Your attacks require a clear misunderstanding of what people say to have any traction.
I freely admitted that I did misunderstand him. My initial read through, for some reason I thought be meant blue roles, rather than red power roles. Once he clarified what he meant, I agreed with the sentiment. As far as the rest of your position on Umlaut, I mostly agree. However, I wasn't attacking him (in fact, his reply to my notes post felt a bit too aggressive, when I had basically given him my seal of approval), and my points on him (and you) aren't baseless. My conclusions might be wrong, but I didn't just make shit up. Show nested quote +On July 05 2012 13:46 Promethelax wrote:
Myles: I had thought he was scum early on, his posting improved and he became null for me, I was planning on talking about him earlier but die to time constraints had to leave some people out of my reads. My opinion of him has changed a little because of his reaction to the night kill. Since the night kill he has only posted in frustration which, in my opinion, would be a really easy thing to fake as scum. He hasn't given us anything and he hasn't participated in discussions. Because of his refusal to be a part of town when we need it most he has slipped back into the scum column. He posted four times in four hours and added no things to the thread.
Huh? Just TWO posts ago you said you believed Myles to be town. + Show Spoiler +Myles is, as far as I can tell, town. (look at me, spelling out that my opinions are my opinions, I wish I had more information that I could give you but I don't and I can't). Now you think he has a good chance of being scum again? And re iamperfection: yea, I mostly agree that he hasn't been active enough to really make a solid read on. Second fewest posts of all the active players, and who I found the least amount of actual useful information about (ie, i basically only have 3 lines of stuff about him). He's pretty null to me as well, but he really has to come out and O* something. This is crunch time, we need everyone participating.
I looked at Myles again, his post lynch posts are trash. Too much frusration no content. I'm trying to look at people with open eyes. Even though you are wrong about your accusation you reminded me I had to look at the thread as a whole again.
When you call out behaviours as scummy that is an attack, even if you don't see it.
I'm sorry I missed you taking back your accusation over that blue/red power role thing.
Hopefully imaimperfection will add more to the thread. We'll see.
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On July 05 2012 12:25 Hopeless1der wrote:
In the meantime, is it worth No-Lynching today? We get another day to look for scum and it buys time to get a better read on miltonkram and keirathi. It also gives our potential blue(s) another day to get information. Right now I'm inclined to believe its our best course of action as town is guaranteed to not lose for one more day.
##VOTE: No Lynch
Sorry if it seemed like I was ignoring your proposal. I am of the opinion that no-lynch is a good idea for town in this situation, but in my last game (XVIII), I proposed the same plan in the same situation (5 townies, 3 scum) and spent a lot of time vehemently defending it. In the end, I got shot down (and it wouldn't have worked anyways because plurality system instead of majority in that game, which I didn't understand) repeatedly (although in hindsight, the people arguing against me were all scum), and our doc ended up getting lynched and we lost the game.
If other people are on-board, I'm all for it. I personally think it benefits town, but I won't spend time arguing for it because we just waste time that could be used discussing candidates instead.
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@hopeless1der: Fix'd. Front page has proper number of townies/mafia.
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On July 05 2012 14:45 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2012 12:25 Hopeless1der wrote:
In the meantime, is it worth No-Lynching today? We get another day to look for scum and it buys time to get a better read on miltonkram and keirathi. It also gives our potential blue(s) another day to get information. Right now I'm inclined to believe its our best course of action as town is guaranteed to not lose for one more day.
##VOTE: No Lynch
Sorry if it seemed like I was ignoring your proposal. I am of the opinion that no-lynch is a good idea for town in this situation, but in my last game (XVIII), I proposed the same plan in the same situation (5 townies, 3 scum) and spent a lot of time vehemently defending it. In the end, I got shot down (and it wouldn't have worked anyways because plurality system instead of majority in that game, which I didn't understand) repeatedly (although in hindsight, the people arguing against me were all scum), and our doc ended up getting lynched and we lost the game. If other people are on-board, I'm all for it. I personally think it benefits town, but I won't spend time arguing for it because we just waste time that could be used discussing candidates instead.
In a majority lynch game where there is not a strong lynch candidate in mylo no lynch is a good choice, if people won't go for one of my strong reads and instead want to lynch someone I have a town read on I will be willing to vote for a no-lynch. My preference would be to lynch scum (obviously) but we cannot have a mislynch as it will cost us the game.
There is no real need to discuss the no lynch now as it will get in that way of making cases is we all argue about how good it is or isn't for town but I wanted to put my voice in on this. Everyone should think about it and come up with their own conclusion on if it helps us, I'm sure that there will be some people who think it is an awful idea but it is still something that everyone should have an opinion on.
If we get near the deadline and there is not a satisfactory lynch candidate we should bring this back up and talk about it at that point.
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On July 05 2012 14:45 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2012 12:25 Hopeless1der wrote:
In the meantime, is it worth No-Lynching today? We get another day to look for scum and it buys time to get a better read on miltonkram and keirathi. It also gives our potential blue(s) another day to get information. Right now I'm inclined to believe its our best course of action as town is guaranteed to not lose for one more day.
##VOTE: No Lynch
Sorry if it seemed like I was ignoring your proposal. I am of the opinion that no-lynch is a good idea for town in this situation, but in my last game (XVIII), I proposed the same plan in the same situation (5 townies, 3 scum) and spent a lot of time vehemently defending it. In the end, I got shot down (and it wouldn't have worked anyways because plurality system instead of majority in that game, which I didn't understand) repeatedly (although in hindsight, the people arguing against me were all scum), and our doc ended up getting lynched and we lost the game. If other people are on-board, I'm all for it. I personally think it benefits town, but I won't spend time arguing for it because we just waste time that could be used discussing candidates instead.
Not to start an argument but i dont see how a no lynch benefits us in any way. Unless we get lucky at nigh wouldnt the scum just have to convince 1 person to join their cause and its gg? To me that seems like a huge gamble for very little benefit. If we are going to win this game we need to lynch today and we need to lynch preferbally a scum with a role. I will spend most of my morning reading through the thread again and will report back later this afternoon or tonight.
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ebwop: Also how did the no lynch benefit the scum in your previous game?
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Just so there's no confusion, you cannot vote for a no lynch. The no lynch can still happen by voting in such a way that no one has the majority (5 votes at the moment), but you have to cast a vote for someone still in the game.
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Okay so we all want our reads on the table. I'm going through each player's filter and getting a feel for them based on the game so far. This won't be incredibly detailed but if you see something you'd like me to specifically expand on I'll look into it further:
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Anacletus - Lynched
- Myles - Leaning towards town at present
- Myles has been keeping up it seems with just enough content to avoid too much suspicion. However, he hasn't really committed to any strong reads. His longest post is in defense of himself. Both times he's voted, it had the feel of "well the rest of town thinks its a good idea"
+ Show Spoiler +On July 01 2012 03:53 Myles wrote:
OK, considering we have just over 3 hours left, I'm going to cast my vote for Anacletus. After barely contributing, then barely defending himself, he's pretty much disappeared completely. While not the most damning of evidence, it certainly seems scummy to me since a good way to draw attention from yourself is to lay low and let other people take heat - you know, out of sight out of mind.
Fencer is suspicious, but after looking through all his posts some more, seems more newbish than scum. I'm certainly not going to turn a blind eye, but I'll give him the BotD for now.
And despite other people not seeming to care, BobTheLob is quite suspicious to me. Lurker extraordinaire and his last post doesn't elicit much confidence imo.
##Vote Analectus On July 04 2012 04:41 Myles wrote:
I'm going to pull the trigger and vote intact. He seems like the best choice given the information we have. As has been discussed, there's too many inconsistencies with the bandwagon, reads, and ability to post.
- He also hasn't posted a goddamn thing of merit since before Intact got lynched. Says he will "take a look tomorrow" (today). His excuse makes sense, but the timing is very unfortunate for us.
- His posts consistently identify suspicious behavior but lack the confidence to get a meaningful case going.
- His lack of conviction and detailed contributions make him suspicious to me, but he's never had to actively pursue a case on someone because we've had people doing it for us and never really needed his input to push a case. We've also not had any luck in finding scum, so I can't say if his posting would change if we were to start a case on legitimate scum. For now, he appears townie that's just keeping up with the thread and supporting the cases he thinks are of merit.
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NrGmonk > sciberbia - NK'd
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JingleHell - NK'd
- AmericanÜmlaut - Scum
I've posted my reads on Umlaut already - Scum
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Intact - Lynched
- BobTheLob - Leaning Town
- Bob's been pretty lurky, and when called out on it, he made an "everyone could be scum post". Looks like desperate townie to me, just trying to contribute something, anything he can. Scum, I feel, would have made more of an effort to not look wishy-washy.
- The deflated behavior going into today feels consistent with his posting of being a newbie and getting ragged on throughout the game
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BLinD-RawR > Keirathi - Probably Scum
- I posted a read on BLiND-RawR before he was replaced. I was not impressed with his response to the case I presented on him and it reinforced my idea that he was scum
- Keirathi's method of taking notes was fine to start with, as he gets to build his own reads from scratch, but he insists that his goal is get other people talking and really only give us a scum number. He has a list of scummy behavior, which he admits is exactly what it is, but he hasn't gone back to make connections that are absolutely crucial at this stage to pinpoint the scum. Anyone could be scum as far as his list is concerned.
- Promethelax was far and away his scummiest read, sciberbia as his towniest read was shot. There is definately a benefit to playing things out this way, as you potentialy get huge town cred and get to paint a massive target on Promethelax. One of them is almost certainly scum. I think Promethelax is our strongest town read remaining, and by planting the seed of doubt going into MYLO, the scum only need to pull one of the town over to their way of thinking to keep themselves alive (Either by mislynch tomorrow or no-lynch today).
- iamperfection - Leaning towards Scum
- Kind of lurky, similar to Myles in terms of amount of content and commitment to his reads. However, did start a case against bobthelob. Bob never seemed like he was at risk of getting into hot water, so kind of a throwaway vote.
- Hasn't contributed much to discussing the reasoning behind NK's or building cases in general.
- Willing to spend time discussing merits of No-Lynch, but has lurked otherwise. - Suspicious
- Comparing with Myles I get a very similar read, but perfection has less posts with almost as much content. This feels like he's spending a lot more time constructing his posts, which is a scum quality to me
- Promethelax - Still Town
- Strong posts, plenty of reads on all suspicious behavior. Explains his actions and shows minimal contradictions.
- Any "contradictory" behavior seems related to players that were replaced
- He's actively tried pushing cases, but reconsiders when new evidence or scummier behavior becomes apparent. Doesn't tunnel into someone.
- Responds to most cases and gives his input, fleshing out the cases further and adding his own conclusions.
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Fencer710 > Miltonkram - NULL
- I don't know...I really don't =\
- If Milton continues to lurk, he's scum in my book. Lurking replacement is completely unacceptable
- Hopeless1der
- I'm town. What else am I supposed to tell you?
TL;DR: Umlaut, Keirathi, Perfection
In response to Perfection:
The No-Lynch itself didn't help scum, it was the long drawn out debate about it.
My basic reasoning in No-Lynch is we're guaranteed at least one more day. If we mislynch tonight, we can lose. I feel the greater risk is in trying to lynch scum today. The flip from the NK will color our reads and hopefully make it easier to target scum when we absolutely must lynch or lose the game.
Regardless, let's not discuss it further until we're closer to the deadline. We need to make all our reads so that we're as prepared as we can be for the next Day's voting as well.
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EPT
