Liar Game Mini Mafia - Page 65
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Palmar
Iceland22630 Posts
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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slOosh
3291 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22630 Posts
MZ/Sandroba is another one, not sure who the last one is. Could be katina, could be gonzaw, could be ET, could be you. It's probably not wiggles or prplhz because MZ would not bus two of his teammates. Depending on voting patterns (stacking to get sandroba in the minority) it's most likely the last person is either katina or gonzaw. | ||
Palmar
Iceland22630 Posts
But for two days in a row sandroba has been in the minority. If my theory on the scumteams is correct this doesn't have to be a coincidence, as any scum team can stack their odds of getting him into the minority by simply putting the other two people who are in less danger on the other side. This theory also works because our focus so far has been on BC's team, where cephiro outed himself quite easily, so MZ and whoever is the last one have not been under any suspicion really, as chaoser/sheth/cephiro have been the focus of our lynch attempts, with 2 of them being scum and one being town, none of them are, in theory, on sandroba's team. | ||
Meapak_Ziphh
United States6782 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22630 Posts
at least you're more bearable than ceph. | ||
Meapak_Ziphh
United States6782 Posts
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
No, last night wbg didn't tell me anything about any plans for today, or about Palmar being scum or anything else. I'm confused about it too, I don't know if he forgot, did it on purpose or hell maybe MZ is lying about it and somehow forged 100000 PMs between him and wbg or something. Here is the last PM I got from wbg: + Show Spoiler [wbg PM] + my example of putting 5 on meapak was merely an example. When meapak announced to the thread that he was receiving 5 from sheth it should have been apparent that you would not need to put votes on him. Cephiro had already said he wasn't putting votes on Sheth. That's when the "put votes on one person to influence the lynch" kicks in. Cephiro knew the three people we were trying to kill. If he says he's not voting sheth then that suggests he's okay with sheth dying (i.e. cephiro and sheth are not connected). When meapak says sheth is giving him 5 votes that automatically means sheth is receiving 0 and cephiro is putting 5 on chaoser. it is at that point that sheth becomes most likely to flip town out of the 3 and you would put 5 on him. Sadly meapak posted that almost half an hour into my final. I sent my votes in at 10:30 KST and he posted it at 11:30 KST. meh. At least we've eliminated one person and we know chaoser is still very likely to be scum. I'm still suspicious of sloosh as well. I'd really like MZ to tell me if wbg said anything else to him. Or maybe someone else knows about this too and can share it. | ||
Katina
United States454 Posts
On May 09 2012 18:38 Palmar wrote: There is really no plan that we can follow today that allows us to guarantee the people we want to kill are in the minority. Again, I think the best way is to random and not tell anyone how you're voting. Obviously this opens the possiblity of stacking, which is what I believe has been the case last 2 days to save sandroba, but the chances of MZ, chaoser, cephiro and sandroba all ending up on the same side AND in minority are extremely slim. Wasn't BC also saying that any round A plans are stupid and can't guarantee anything? He was mafia. Anything to toss the doubt around eh? | ||
Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
MZ, share the PMs where you and WBG came to these conclusions. | ||
prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On May 09 2012 12:27 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Well that was unfortunate even if expected. However the game's over. WBG and I worked out a finalized scum list. Team A: Cephiro, BloodyCobbler, Chaoser Team B: Sandroba, Palmar, Mr. Wiggles If the townies could please PM me, I've got a plan that will maximize the number of scum in round A so we can finish this quick. | ||
Palmar
Iceland22630 Posts
On May 10 2012 03:13 Katina wrote: Wasn't BC also saying that any round A plans are stupid and can't guarantee anything? He was mafia. Anything to toss the doubt around eh? How is that remotely tossing doubt around. Do you have a fleshed out plan on how to proceed? You've been tunneling me all game, the only reason you've gotten by this long is foolishness seemed to think you're town. | ||
Meapak_Ziphh
United States6782 Posts
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On May 10 2012 04:35 slOosh wrote: I will attest that Meapak & WBG's scum list is authentic and most likely accurate. If you want em ask Meapak, and you'll realize why WBG was so hesitant in calling Meapak scum. Are you saying that WBG also gave you this list? I can also tell you it's not completely accurate because I'm a townie. There's not even anything new here except for the inclusion of Palmar (which doesn't entirely surprise me), and a division into teams. So, what do you mean by saying you can "attest that Meapak & WBG's scum list is authentic"? I want some kind of confirmation MZ isn't making this up. That means someone else saying that WBG said the same thing to them. I want to know if WBG thought I was scum, or if MZ is just tacking his name to his own suspicions or making stuff up as scum. | ||
Meapak_Ziphh
United States6782 Posts
On April 30 2012 13:11 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Well, I agree with gonzaw's statement that a strategy for Round A is also necessary. Scum are able to coordinate their votes, so they can always split themselves so that only half end up in the lynch pool ever if we let people just do whatever. So, we need some kind of strategy to make sure that we can get a decent amount of scummy people in the majority, that we can actually hold people to it, and that's feasible. Obviously, an optimal strategy for lynch choice would be for every person to vote the same way. Then, everyone makes it into Phase B, and no one is safe from being able to be lynched. This makes Phase B more complicated, but I think it's worth it for the choice. What do people think? Results are revealed afterwards, so we should know if someone's lying and made it into the minority. Anyone who does, we can lynch. I don't see a reason townies need to worry about being immune to lynch this early in the game. Perhaps in the later stages, where it's feasible scum rig the votes to kill them, but not now. If someone tries that now, we'll know about the ninja bandwagon, because again, the results are revealed. We should try to force scum to play by our rules. They'll be a lot more careful, because there's two scum teams, so I don't see them trying anything too ballsy. Any disadvantage going into the late-game will translate into the other scum-team having more influence than them. Also, because I can, and the name of the game, what do people think of LaL? :p Obviously the quote speaks for itself. Wiggles is proposing a plan that could have allowed the mafia to inflict massive casualties right off the bat with no real benefits for the town. In his next post (I’m not going to quote everything, if you wanna see it just read his filter… it’s only 2 pages) Wiggles writes this Lurkers and inactives aren't going to be able to coast along, because I for one, am not going to throw any votes at them. I don't mean even bad townies need to become scumhunter extraordinaires, but they should be putting some kind of effort into the game, so that we can know they're actually trying, and hopefully, that they're town. While obviously everyone would love to do away with those pesky lurkers, what’s implied in this message is actually kinda scary. Wiggles is ok with people dying even if they’re town. As mafia, this slip actually makes sense. Scum know how bad lurkers are for town, the lynch system provides a great way to crusade against them and look good. And when they flip town they can always hide behind their target’s bad play. A townie on the other hand would not think like that. A townie understands that numbers=power and we can’t go around casually capping people because they’re not active enough for our tastes. For better or for worse, town needs as many greens alive as possible simply so that mafia doesn’t outnumber us. Wiggles next few posts are a prime example of why he’s scum. In the spoilers you’ll see wiggles at his passive aggressive finest, subtly tearing at people without calling them scummy. Furthermore, all he does is ask questions. This is a very safe scum strategy. Think about it, by asking a question Wiggles is instantly putting the person on the defensive while at the same time enabling him to claim “Hey I’m just curious” if called out about it. Now let’s make it clear, asking questions does not make you scum, asking questions to mask a lack of scumhunting does and that’s clearly what wiggles is doing.: + Show Spoiler + On May 01 2012 04:03 Mr. Wiggles wrote: No, I'm trying to get something concrete out of Chaoser instead of just "I think Palmar needs to be lynched". That post was directed towards Chaoser. Chaoser, explain why you want to lynch Palmar, and why you think he's scum. You're not going to convince anyone by just saying you want to lynch him. On May 01 2012 06:22 Mr. Wiggles wrote: I'm voting yes. WIFOM about it all you want. Also, why did this thread go to Hell in the last two pages? Palmar posted his list of reads after extensive discussion about his plan, and suddenly a whole bunch of people come running out of the woodwork to oppose it, and not in a calm and logical way, but instead in a sort of raving and foaming at the mouth way. On May 01 2012 09:34 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Hey Cephiro, if you yourself say you aren't doing anything productive, then how are you a useful townie? Also, why are you so quick to call gonzaw out as tunneling you when he's only been talking about you for two pages of the thread? That's hardly tunneling, it's pressure, and you're reacting very badly to it. Why don't you want to be talked about so badly? Do you have some secret reason for needing to avoid scrutiny? Would you just look at that, question after passive aggressive question after passive aggressive question. Wiggles is using these questions to cover up the fact that he’s avoided calling anyone out so far. These posts make it look like he’s contributing on the surface, but in reality he’s just tearing people down without calling them scum. Here’s how I would define these posts, if any of these people flipped scum wiggles could come back to them and say “look I was putting pressure on them.” But if any of them flip town, you could never accuse wiggles of calling for their deaths. Again safe posting to avoid being noticed. lol this next post is great: + Show Spoiler + On May 02 2012 02:06 Mr. Wiggles wrote: I think VE's a good lynch, but I'm not sure about Sandroba. If I had to pick a second person to lynch, it would be him, but I'd like to see some more out of him now that he's in the thread. A lot of the case against him so far seems to be "he doesn't care", but that doesn't really say much about his alignment in my opinion, just that he doesn't care. It' uncharacteristic of him, sure, but I've gotten that same line thrown at me in games as town where I was more inactive like Death Factory 2 and JubJub mafia. So, I'd like to see something more substantial from him now that he looks, or at least claims, that he'll be active again. If we had to choose one person to kill, I think VE would be it. All it seems like he's doing is running through the thread aggravating people and opposing any sort of organization and causing dissent on principle. He hasn't even said who he thinks scum is now that he's chimed in on Round B. His case on WBG was laughable, and besides that, I don't see any reads from him. Even when he talks about the Sandroba lynch, he doesn't say that he thinks Sandroba is scum, just that he's fine with his lynch. Also, just looking at what was posted recently, it looks like VE has given up. The lynch seemed like it would be between him and Sandroba, but instead of fighting it, he's just kicking dirt around. This is pretty uncharacteristic, and doesn't sit well with me. @VE: So if you have super good reads and have been scumhunting, and that's why scum want to kill you, what are they? Also, I see no scumhunting in the thread, so it must have happened in PM land. Obviously if you're telling the truth then, scum have them, but town doesn't. Withholding them does nothing for town, and is in fact an anti-town behaviour. Also, I thought you said you weren't playing the game in PMs, so why are you scumhunting there supposedly, and not in the thread? Or, you're just scum and I'm wasting my time. =/ Look! He’s finally took a stand, and it’s none other than VE, the easiest person to call scum at that point in the game. We also get a laughable soft defense on sandroba. This next post fits in with the asking questions to pass for activity:+ Show Spoiler + On May 04 2012 01:40 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Hey, prplhz. You said that you've been playing badly, and seem like you want to step it up. From the thread, it doesn't really seem like you've been trying to do so. So, let's start to play. How are you deciding to vote? Who do you want to kill if they get in the majority? I'm interested in your answers, and reasons would be nice, too. As for myself, I haven't decided exactly how I'll vote yet. I'd be willing to vote for a plan, but based on the results of Day 1 and the general attitude of people this game, I highly doubt it would pan out. So, if someone wants to organize something of some kind, feel free to shoot me a PM. Otherwise, I'm just going to vote however. Maybe I'll tell you I'm voting one way and vote the other just to see what would happen, if I'd be forgiven or not. :p + Show Spoiler [I've wanted an excuse to post th…] + + Show Spoiler + On May 04 2012 06:44 Mr. Wiggles wrote: @Gonzaw: My current read on Cephiro is that he's bad town. Most of the things he says I see as being wrong or scummy, but he's very stubborn and how he expresses himself makes me think he actually believes what he's saying. So, this lends me to thinking that he's just bad town, because of his conviction in what he's saying. I somewhat formed this read after I argued with him a little. That's why I asked if anyone was voting him on Day 1. As for BC, I'm still waiting on him to come out with something, just like Sandroba and prplhz. Based on his complete lack of contribution before, I was leaning scum on him. He's come back now though, it seems, so I'm waiting to see what he does. I'll give a better read later on. prplhz: If you want to talk about something, why don't you answer my questions? Wiggles just can’t make a post without sounding wishy washy. He’s eager to be non confrontational, he flat out evades giving a read on sandroba and prplhz. + Show Spoiler + On May 08 2012 02:31 Mr. Wiggles wrote: So what are people's thoughts on Sloosh? There seemed to be a general feeling that he was scum, but now I don't see his name being mentioned at all for the lynch. Did something happen in PM land that I missed? Also, for how the KP works. I don't think that there's some third party who holds all the KP, and just think that's Cephiro trolling. Even if it's true, we'll just kill him. He'd have already shown he's anti-town with the kills, and I doubt he'd tell us who are the mafia that have contacted him, like he seemed to imply happened. My own views are that there's either a medic who's saved a likely target twice, or a bullet-proof third party who attracted shots twice, though that seems unlikely. I see the medic being a more realistic scenario considering it's likely scum would shoot into Palmar/Syllo/WBG to disrupt the town. If there isn't a medic, then I'm not sure why scum didn't shoot there, and it probably implies that one or more of them are scum. Wiggles wants to know people’s thoughts on slosh, he’ll tell you what he thinks the general feeling is but not what his own is. Anyone spotting a pattern here? Also it’s time for setup speculation lol. + Show Spoiler + On May 09 2012 08:52 Mr. Wiggles wrote: I'm not sure what I think right now, and need to re-evaluate. If I'm still alive after the day post, I plan on going back and re-reading both yours and Chaoser's filters, among others. I think Sandroba is mafia, and most likely Cephiro is too. They both need to be killed next time they show up in the majority, unless something major happens that shows we need to act otherwise. I had few other ideas, but after thinking about them, they don't make as much sense to me anymore. There's some weird things going on, but it probably seems that way because I'm lacking a lot of information. I'll be able to make slightly better sense of it after the Day post, but I think it lies mostly in the fact that Palmar/Syllo/WBG are holding information back. This is the exact same type of answer wiggles has been giving for days. He’s alright with calling out the people who have been under the gun for a long time and can no longer be blamed on him but other than that he doesn’t bring a single new idea to the table. But even as he calls for their deaths he provides a caveat of “should something major happen.” Constant evasion, constant fear of taking a stand. That’s sorta thing that’s typified wiggles play in this game. For those who are curious about the WBG connection, here are the pertinent PMs. + Show Spoiler + Original Message From wherebugsgo: welcome to my feelings this entire game. I keep getting more scummy people than there are scum in the game, which eventually just pisses me off and makes me not want to play This was the night bugs died, if people were looking for bugs to say “wiggles is scum” it’s not in there but if you take some time to read the other materials I’ve sent you and check things over and then read this analysis I’m confident you’ll come to the same conclusions I did. For those who are curious about my EchelonTee read, I went back through my PMs with him and it cleared things up nicely. Hope this clears things up for everyone. Palmar is next. | ||
Meapak_Ziphh
United States6782 Posts
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6782 Posts
Original Message From wherebugsgo: Thanks for this, it's very useful. I have an idea, but I'm going to wait on it. In fact I'm going to tell gonzaw and syllo, so that if I die tonight they will know what I think. based on this vote pattern, though, I think Palmar is scum. I will explain it to syllo and gonzaw and if I die tonight they will make the results public. If I don't die I'll do it myself. The reason I'm not telling you now is because I want to play it safe. I want to see if the trend I see continues. Based on what I'm seeing I'm sure it will because it is nearly impossible for that type of trend to be purely accidental. There's also a handy spreadsheet in there, bugs and I used it to flesh out voting patterns. Sadly, I'm really not sure who to put down as scum in place of Palmar. We'll still go through on the plan I set forward earlier today, we've still got plenty of targets to work with, it just means that I'm gonna need to go back and look through my townies to figure out which one of them is scum Palmar I'm sorry, I jumped to conclusions and now I'm slightly fucked. Since your reads are basically mine, who do you think is the last scum? | ||
Katina
United States454 Posts
On May 10 2012 04:47 Palmar wrote: How is that remotely tossing doubt around. Do you have a fleshed out plan on how to proceed? You've been tunneling me all game, the only reason you've gotten by this long is foolishness seemed to think you're town. Meapak has a plan. Foolishness had a plan before he died. gonzaw has had many plans over the course of the game. BC kept saying that plans were stupid and it was impossible to coordinate. He also tried to push people into thinking Foolishness and the rest of the circle was mafia. He never pushed a read hard until people wanted to kill him. I sense history repeating itself with you.... | ||
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