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Fine, i'll post my reasons for the vote. Didn't really want to because the night is comming and the last time i accused somebody at the start of the night i got killed. Here is what i wrote earlier but wanted to keep it to myself until the end of the night
I'll catch up on everything and start making cases. I voted for Terra because in my opionion he seems to be trying to hard. The vote/unvote thing bothered me from the start. The matter of fact is that in the beggining it had a positive effect, but in time that kind of posts only start turning people against eachother. I noticed that at a point almost everybody was accusing eachother for various reasons and the conversation went nowhere. More than this people started forming small groups. And i find this a very unhealthy behavior town-wise. In my opinion this was all caused by Nova_Terra. I don't know if it was on purpose or not, but the effect was negative nonetheless.
More than this, i saw a post in wich he said ( correct me if i'm wrong here, i went thru everything kinda fast ), that in the last game he got killed for beeing to silent as a mafia. Now his behavior is not closer to normal, but it's the exact same opposite. I think he got mafia again and he tries to act compl different expecting a tottaly different reaction from the people.
From what i've noticed, he is not really scum-hunting, he is not thinking on building a case and going after someone that he really belives is mafia, but rather he goes after everybody managing to only create dubt against everybody.
Now, that was the reasoning behind my vote. But now that i've read your case-post i am alot more sure of my vote. If i don't die tonight, i am voting for him again.
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macheji said: (about nova)
More than this, i saw a post in wich he said ( correct me if i'm wrong here, i went thru everything kinda fast ), that in the last game he got killed for beeing to silent as a mafia.
Yeah, you did read wrong. Nova is a spammer, both as town (his first game) and as scum (last 2 games), so I really doubt he said that.
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To Nova_Terra: I noticed something while reading through the last few hours of the thread, and it has to do with your reaction when macheji appeared 4 minutes before what we both thought was the deadline. Context: macheji has not yet voted, and will surely get modkilled during the quickly approaching nightpost.
Just compare my reaction…
On April 17 2012 05:57 BlueyD wrote:
O_o macheji VOTE NOW or you get modkilled in 3 minutes!
To yours:
On April 17 2012 05:58 Nova_Terra wrote:
Beauuuuutiful timing my macheji. a modkill now would suck.
It surprises me that your post lacks the urgency of mine. In your mind he’s got 2 minutes to vote and not get modkilled, and yet you’re not urging him to vote. I was panicking there and just hoping he’d hurry up and vote already and not just die stupidly on us. But you’re just... happy he’s there? He’s not exactly saved yet and you’re making no effort to keep him alive. Care to explain?
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No, i meant Crossfire and not Solohan in that other post. That was correct. Then, he decided to not bandwagon me, which makes me find him more inno because of.
As soon as i saw Macheji post, i immediately assumed he was voting. then when i realized he wasnt, i stratee getting more woreied, which my other posts refect.
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Also, TheRavensName switched from oneplus because he thought that lazin and i are a team. What? i've been posting analysis on his scummy posts and we have been frequently referencing eachother which is a scummy thing to do. And hes my best scumread. your argument for switching doesnt hold much it seems. Thats scummy.
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Apologies for clutter but i need a third post before school.
At this point i would urge a medic or jailkeeper to think about protecting Pure. As it stands, there are high chances of his death that stem from him making cases, and him tunneling me.
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The lynching of innocent townie oneplus
It's a sad night, knowing an innocent townie was lynced and that it could have been prevented. I've spent some time reviewing how oneplus ended up getting lynched and have the following analysis.
The initial pressure vote on oneplus - voted in order to get more post activity:
- Pure-SC2 (Pressure vote - removed later when I made my case against Nova and voted for him)
- BlueyD (Pressure vote - removed but stated he was still suspicious, moved vote to TheRavensName as he was lurking)
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Following these votes, oneplus identifies a link between Lazermonkey and Nova which provokes a strong reaction from them both and a very interesting back and forth conversation occurs here. I'd recommend everyone re-read this knowing now that oneplus is a townie.
It was after this exchange that I posted my case against Nova, and had independently identified a link between Lazer and Nova.
Once the dust settled on Lazermonkeys quick vote flip onto Nova (following my case and association between Nova and Lazer), he initiates the vote that leads to oneplus's lynching.
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The votes on oneplus that lead to his lynching:
- Lazermonkey (April 17 2012 04:04):
This is the initial vote on oneplus following the pressure vote. Summary of his reasoning is:
- Oneplus gets super mad accusing both him and Nova with no reasoning (Ed: he quotes oneplus saying that Nova's defending doesn't make sense at all, something I agree with. KEYNOTE: In Lazer's post he responds to this quote as if oneplus said it to him, when he actually said it to Nova. Why is he responding to something said to Nova? This post needs further analysis).
- That oneplus will think of him and Nova as scum regardless of what they say
- Quotes FourFace/Lorant's bizarre purposefully silly post (which was from his smurf account) as evidence that other people think oneplus is strange. (Ed. Lorant, did you think oneplus was strange?)
- Concludes that he is not sure whether oneplus is bad or scum, makes an association between oneplus and Lorant and states that lynching oneplus would give info about Lorant (though calls him durant which is confusing).
- TheRavensName (April 17 2012 05:17):
Little over an hour after Lazermonkeys vote described above, TheRavensName votes oneplus. His reasoning:
- "Sorry One... You seem to be the more likely of a scum then the others with votes in my eyes... and at least Nova has contributed enough to warrant being spared the first lynch in my opinion."
- Therapist (April 17 2012 05:25):
Less than 10 minutes later, Therapist adds his vote to Oneplus. His reasoning:
- He does not wish Nova to be lynched because he is bringing out information and is good for town.
- Oneplus has contributed nothing but a bandwagon on Nova Terra (Ed: Did you even read his posts? He suspected Nova before I posted my case and identified a link between Nova and Lazer)
- Nova_Terra (April 17 2012 05:28):
Three minutes later, Nova adds his vote to oneplus. His reasoning:
- "okay, i will relent on solohan for now to consolidate a decent vote."
- Crossfire99 (April 17 2012 05:45):
17 minutes later, Crossfire adds his vote to oneplus (it's not bold, but obviously he's voting for oneplus. His reasoning:
- He doesn't think oneplus is scum, but he also doesn't think Nova is scum. Since Nova has been actively contributing, he is going to vote oneplus to save Nova. (Ed: Interesting choice of words if you read his post. He is voting for someone he doesn't believe is scum to save Nova).
- BlueyD (April 17 2012 05:49):
4 minutes later, BlueyD provides a vote count, and adds his vote to oneplus. His reasoning:
- It's between Nova and oneplus (useless keeping his vote on anyone else), and he's got more suspicions on oneplus than Nova.
- Daymor (April 17 2012 05:58):
9 minutes later, Daymor adds his vote to oneplus. His reasoning:
- He has his suspicions on Nova, but thinks he's contributed enough to spare him from a day 1 lynch.
- He consolidates the vote on oneplus to prevent any last minute switching. (Ed. He doesn't say he has any suspicions on oneplus).
- Crossfire99 (April 17 2012 06:00):
2 minutes later Crossfire unvotes oneplus, and then votes him again in the same post.
- What on earth is this? His vote is already on oneplus and I can't for the life of me work out what this means, other than it looks very odd to me. I'd be interested in what anyone else thinks on this. Note: The time of this post was right at the expected deadline at the time it was made - the mods clarified that it was actually another 2 hours until the deadline.
- TheRavensName (April 17 2012 07:47):
13 minutes before the deadline, TheRavensName removes his vote from oneplus, and votes Nova. His reasoning:
- At this point he believes Lazer and Nova are working together, and changes his vote unless something else can convince him in the next 15 minutes.
The day ends, and innocent townie oneplus is lynched with 6 votes.
Of the 6 people that voted for him:
- Four have stated no scum related reason for voting oneplus (Daymor, Crossfire, Nova, Therapist)
- One is not sure whether he is scum or bad town (Lazermonkey)
- One is more suspicious of him than of Nova (BlueyD)
Of the 6 people that voted for him, 4 of them did not have any scum related reasons for voting oneplus. That is a very disappointing realisation. He certainly wasn't a lurker when you consider his input over the 59 (?) hour day.
Of the 6 people that voted for him, I have strong town leanings towards 2 of them, mild town leanings towards 1 of them, mild scum leanings on 1 of them and strong scum readings on 2 of them.
That's my analysis of what happened that led to oneplus's lynch.
He was an easy target because of his poor English. Please go and re-read his posts, look at his interactions with others and do your own analysis, then post it for everyone to see.
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On April 17 2012 19:21 Pure-SC2 wrote:
The lynching of innocent townie oneplus
It's a sad night, knowing an innocent townie was lynced and that it could have been prevented. I've spent some time reviewing how oneplus ended up getting lynched and have the following analysis.
The initial pressure vote on oneplus - voted in order to get more post activity:
- Pure-SC2 (Pressure vote - removed later when I made my case against Nova and voted for him)
- BlueyD (Pressure vote - removed but stated he was still suspicious, moved vote to TheRavensName as he was lurking)
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Following these votes, oneplus identifies a link between Lazermonkey and Nova which provokes a strong reaction from them both and a very interesting back and forth conversation occurs here. I'd recommend everyone re-read this knowing now that oneplus is a townie.
It was after this exchange that I posted my case against Nova, and had independently identified a link between Lazer and Nova.
Once the dust settled on Lazermonkeys quick vote flip onto Nova (following my case and association between Nova and Lazer), he initiates the vote that leads to oneplus's lynching.
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The votes on oneplus that lead to his lynching:
- Lazermonkey (April 17 2012 04:04):
This is the initial vote on oneplus following the pressure vote. Summary of his reasoning is:
- Oneplus gets super mad accusing both him and Nova with no reasoning (Ed: he quotes oneplus saying that Nova's defending doesn't make sense at all, something I agree with. KEYNOTE: In Lazer's post he responds to this quote as if oneplus said it to him, when he actually said it to Nova. Why is he responding to something said to Nova? This post needs further analysis).
- That oneplus will think of him and Nova as scum regardless of what they say
- Quotes FourFace/Lorant's bizarre purposefully silly post (which was from his smurf account) as evidence that other people think oneplus is strange. (Ed. Lorant, did you think oneplus was strange?)
- Concludes that he is not sure whether oneplus is bad or scum, makes an association between oneplus and Lorant and states that lynching oneplus would give info about Lorant (though calls him durant which is confusing).
- TheRavensName (April 17 2012 05:17):
Little over an hour after Lazermonkeys vote described above, TheRavensName votes oneplus. His reasoning:
- "Sorry One... You seem to be the more likely of a scum then the others with votes in my eyes... and at least Nova has contributed enough to warrant being spared the first lynch in my opinion."
- Therapist (April 17 2012 05:25):
Less than 10 minutes later, Therapist adds his vote to Oneplus. His reasoning:
- He does not wish Nova to be lynched because he is bringing out information and is good for town.
- Oneplus has contributed nothing but a bandwagon on Nova Terra (Ed: Did you even read his posts? He suspected Nova before I posted my case and identified a link between Nova and Lazer)
- Nova_Terra (April 17 2012 05:28):
Three minutes later, Nova adds his vote to oneplus. His reasoning:
- "okay, i will relent on solohan for now to consolidate a decent vote."
- Crossfire99 (April 17 2012 05:45):
17 minutes later, Crossfire adds his vote to oneplus (it's not bold, but obviously he's voting for oneplus. His reasoning:
- He doesn't think oneplus is scum, but he also doesn't think Nova is scum. Since Nova has been actively contributing, he is going to vote oneplus to save Nova. (Ed: Interesting choice of words if you read his post. He is voting for someone he doesn't believe is scum to save Nova).
- BlueyD (April 17 2012 05:49):
4 minutes later, BlueyD provides a vote count, and adds his vote to oneplus. His reasoning:
- It's between Nova and oneplus (useless keeping his vote on anyone else), and he's got more suspicions on oneplus than Nova.
- Daymor (April 17 2012 05:58):
9 minutes later, Daymor adds his vote to oneplus. His reasoning:
- He has his suspicions on Nova, but thinks he's contributed enough to spare him from a day 1 lynch.
- He consolidates the vote on oneplus to prevent any last minute switching. (Ed. He doesn't say he has any suspicions on oneplus).
- Crossfire99 (April 17 2012 06:00):
2 minutes later Crossfire unvotes oneplus, and then votes him again in the same post.
- What on earth is this? His vote is already on oneplus and I can't for the life of me work out what this means, other than it looks very odd to me. I'd be interested in what anyone else thinks on this. Note: The time of this post was right at the expected deadline at the time it was made - the mods clarified that it was actually another 2 hours until the deadline.
- TheRavensName (April 17 2012 07:47):
13 minutes before the deadline, TheRavensName removes his vote from oneplus, and votes Nova. His reasoning:
- At this point he believes Lazer and Nova are working together, and changes his vote unless something else can convince him in the next 15 minutes.
The day ends, and innocent townie oneplus is lynched with 6 votes.
Of the 6 people that voted for him:
- Four have stated no scum related reason for voting oneplus (Daymor, Crossfire, Nova, Therapist)
- One is not sure whether he is scum or bad town (Lazermonkey)
- One is more suspicious of him than of Nova (BlueyD)
Of the 6 people that voted for him, 4 of them did not have any scum related reasons for voting oneplus. That is a very disappointing realisation. He certainly wasn't a lurker when you consider his input over the 59 (?) hour day.
Of the 6 people that voted for him, I have strong town leanings towards 2 of them, mild town leanings towards 1 of them, mild scum leanings on 1 of them and strong scum readings on 2 of them.
That's my analysis of what happened that led to oneplus's lynch.
He was an easy target because of his poor English. Please go and re-read his posts, look at his interactions with others and do your own analysis, then post it for everyone to see.
I gotta say.. personally I didn't think his English was that bad in my opinion. I never had that much trouble understanding what he said anyways. Maybe my grasp is weak enough for that though. It did feel a lot like it was just a very crutch excuse when I voted for him at the time, like it was: well I can't post that much cause I'm not very good at English... but I know several people commented it wasn't that bad and had no issue understanding him. Its part of the reason I had those initial scum readings on him.
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On April 17 2012 14:03 Nova_Terra wrote:
Also, TheRavensName switched from oneplus because he thought that lazin and i are a team. What? i've been posting analysis on his scummy posts and we have been frequently referencing eachother which is a scummy thing to do. And hes my best scumread. your argument for switching doesnt hold much it seems. Thats scummy.
Thats true. But then again you also still voted together despite the fact you were pretty much guaranteed to get lynched until I pretty much got Oneplus killed. Hell you woulda died anyways if he swapped his vote. If he really thinks your scum he would have hanged you last night. Or its just a ploy to make him look good.
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On April 17 2012 20:17 TheRavensName wrote:
I gotta say.. personally I didn't think his English was that bad in my opinion. I never had that much trouble understanding what he said anyways. Maybe my grasp is weak enough for that though. It did feel a lot like it was just a very crutch excuse when I voted for him at the time, like it was: well I can't post that much cause I'm not very good at English... but I know several people commented it wasn't that bad and had no issue understanding him. Its part of the reason I had those initial scum readings on him.
Yes, but your scum readings were wrong - he was innocent town.
Also, you didn't make any comments at all about the voting on oneplus. Is that really all you have to add following the day 1 lynch?
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Before I head to bed I will throw up a quick post from my notes regarding the lynch on Oneplus, bare in mind that these are my notes, hopefully they make sense to you guys as well. NOTE: This has been copied directly from Google Docs, so the formatting might be a bit ugly, I will try clean it up but it's late and I want to go to bed.
ONEPLUS (Townie)
- excuse for poor english
- explanation of odds on random lynching
- wants a town leader
- argument with both @Nova & @Lazer
- kind of OMGUS reaction to @Nova
- thinks that maybe Lazer is bussing Nova
- says Lazer changes his vote too sudden
** Initial post included an excuse for poor english, I really don’t like people posting excuses, especially in their opening posts, sets a bad precedent. But this excuse isn’t really related that much to gameplay so it is slightly more acceptable. Especially considering it appears english is not his primary language.
** Wants a town leader, not a huge fan of that idea, I would prefer everyone to work on their own and contribute to the towns goals as a group rather than relying on 1 figurehead to guide us around like sheep.
** Odds on random lynching, not terribly informative, anyone can do this basic math.
** Argues with @Lazer and @Nova who at that point I had scummy reads on, he does make some sense here and there but it can be hard to read and decipher at times. Forces a reaction out of both @Nova and @Lazer, claiming OMGUS for their pressure votes on him. But @oneplus had pressure votes on him from other players too, yet he only singled out @Nova and @Lazer. Thinks there is a connection between the two. But if you look @Lazer, you can see he has a town read on @Nova (prior to @Pure-SC2’s case), but i don’t know how invested into an argument you would get to protect a modest at best town read, but again that’s WIFOM.
** Thinks that @Lazer might be bussing @Nova, could be possible. States that @Lazer changed his vote too suddenly.
PEOPLE THAT VOTED FOR ONEPLUS
BlueyD
** From his posting history he seems to have a town read on @Nova, he has stated a few times that some of @Nova’s actions push him towards town, ie not worrying about his own safety and accusations and pressure on @Solohan.
** His lynch switch doesn’t raise significant eyebrows either. His vote would have been wasted had he not switched. If he is town he would try protect his town read (@Nova), if mafia almost anything can happen, although I imagine bussing your teammates at this stage would be retarded.
Crossfire99
** Uses the phrase ‘to save @Nova’ rather than to lynch @oneplus. To me that signals that he is leaning town on @Nova, or is at least on the same page as @Nova. @Pure-SC2 thinks they could be scum teammates, definitely a possibility. I basically came to the same conclusion in regards to the lynch so can’t be too critical.
** Should make a point of pressuring him for his point of view, he doesn’t really seem to put his ‘money’ anywhere, almost looks like he will take whatever comes his way. I certainly expect more from him if he is to remove any scum suspicions.
Lazermonkey
** Seems to buddy up to @Nova, maybe he feels @Nova’s activity and pressure voting (which he states he likes) make him a townie read? This is confirmed in his post about switching his vote to Nova. @Pure-SC2 posted a good case on @Nova, which apparently was all the convincing @Lazer needed to switch. Although it’s a rather meek acceptance, slightly defends @Nova while still voting for him. Then finally says something along the lines of ‘if @Nova is townie gotta look @Pure-SC2’, counter-wagon maybe?
** Was convinced @oneplus was bad town (I think during their spat), yet is happy to vote for a bad town as opposed to anyone else. Kind of OMGUS.
Nova_Terra
** Seems to be rushing some posts, I would think that is more a sign of townie-ness being unafraid to post your thoughts immediately without fear. I know when I was Mafia I was careful to review and preview my posts before submitting them. No reason to think other players wouldn’t do the same.
** Didn’t sway from his town read on @oneplus. Only switched his vote as an effort to save himself which makes sense. I like how he sticked with his read on @oneplus, It’s perfectly acceptable to vote for someone else you have a read on to save yourself. Noone is going to lie down and accept a lynch when they don’t need too. He is also clearly more active than @oneplus, so it isn’t a bad idea to keep him around. There should be more than enough posts to analyse his play on.
** After my early suspicions of @Nova, I think he did a decent job of defending himself, he threw in a few posts which were a bit un-necessary (rude, put-downs etc). He was reasonably aggressive on his defense, a few people came in to post messages of support so either a lot of people have town reads on him, or his scum team and a few sheep came in to save him.
** Says he has a town read on @Pure-SC2, I think for almost anyone in the thread he is the most obvious town read. Would be very shocked if he were to flip Mafia at this point, however it is still early. @Nova was probably the easiest target due to his excessive posting. I wouldn’t think someone as Mafia would give a town read on someone who posted a good case on them, but that is simply WIFOM and nothing more at this stage.
Therapist
** Softly defends @Nova, saying that it’s a bandwagon that is forming. There were a reasonble number of people around at the time, if it was truely an easy bandwagon, why did more people not jump on? Several have town reads on @Nova, or at least state as much (@Crossfire & @BlueyD, @Lazer initially also, prior to @Pure-SC2’s case), his soft defense would suggest that he has either a town read on @Nova or is possibly a teammate?
** Doesn’t see a reason to bandwagon @Nova, but is willing to basically bandwagon @oneplus. Seems slightly hypocritical, but it could simply be because he has a town read on @Nova. Need more information.
Although his vote did not end on oneplus I will also include my noted on TheRavensName, because he switched late
TheRavensName
** Seems really indecisive, not contributing much in terms of post quantity or quality
** Early on states he has no issue with @Pure-SC2’s case, then @Pure-SC2’s post about the scumslip convinces him, then when he changes his vote to @Nova he isn’t sure about Pure-SC2 again.
** Throws his suspicions around without really providing any information why, doesn’t provide any reads either.
** Last minute of the oneplus lynch he switches off, this change of vote made absolutely no difference at all to the outcome, did it with 15mins to spare. To me that seems to indicate him trying to distance himself from the lynch target. Does he maybe know something we don’t? Possible, but certainly need more information and activity to determine whether this is the case.
CONCLUSION
I know this is a lot of information to digest and I am not sure how much of it people will agree or disagree with. In case I can't get online prior to the deadline tomorrow here is the link.
Also included in this mess if you have a look at my notes about @Nova_Terra it states in their why I was willing to take my vote off him to an extent. I will also briefly explain again here why I changed.
Nova_Terra has by far posted the most content in the thread so far, that's easy to see. At the time of the vote, I didn't have the time to thoroughly analyse roughly pages 10-14 prior to the lynch deadline. I skimmed through and noticed Nova_Terra had been incredibly active during this time so i chose to spare him so i could read through his posts to see what I thought of him. As you can see from my notes he is slowly erasing my earlier doubts about him. I am not yet willing to 'confirm him town' but he is trending that way.
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A good analysis Daymor, I need to spend some time reviewing.
Where is everyone else? Why has no-one else spoken up about the events of the night?
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I'm very busy today and won't be fit to debate anything until the day after tomorrow. If someone from the council of 4 is shot, he will either be replaced by the most active and sound player from the outer circle (i.e. everyone - (minus) Lazer & Novaplayer) or not .. that is for the council to decide halfway through Day2 which won't be like Day1 + Show Spoiler +.. chaotic, breeding baseless and silly argumentation like I didn't want to vote for that guy so I voted for the other guy
Mid-nighttime is not the time to be making huge cases. Everyone prepare a statement and post it 2-3 minutes before daybreak to make sure mafia night action has been sent (hopefully the hosts don't mess it up).
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I like how FourFace has somehow invented a circle that is founded on the exclusion of Lazer and I.
And im back from school. if anyone needs me.
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Also i am very frustrated about the deadline because I had joined this game in the understanding that i would be able to be awake for the deadline. Now, i'm going to be giving myself 4 hours to sleep at night, as i have to be here for deadline.
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True, 23 CET was awesome. What's the deadline now ?
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Posting from work at lunchtime.
I'll be there at deadline to post my thoughts as requested by Lorant. Hopefully I'll have some time before then to take a good look at a few people.
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I gotta be honest, I'm not too sure whats up with this council that got established, and I don't really want in on it. Now as to why I switched, personally I thought Pure made a decent argument. I don't regret anything about oneplus even though he did die, he is not much a loss; similiar to how my death would be. I do not reget voting Oneplus, at the time it seemed like the correct decision based on what people were bringing up and what others were reading into the situations. Pures argument about slips and the like is what convinced me to swap sides. I do think Nova and Lazer were quick to abandon their arguments in favor of hanging One, especially considering Lazer had said One seemed townie to him. Makes no sense to vote someone you are almost certain is townie to save someone who you arn't sure of (something he did say himself) and Nova's manerisms was enough to make me suspicious enough to change my vote.
I understand this does make me look fishy and suspicious; which is fine. I think me sort of getting one killed, sense I was the second person before the mass to vote for him, may have revealed a bit if nothing else. I do regret it but I think it may have gotten us a good day of information to process, which it seems no one has wasted time on doing.
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Lorant, what kind of statements are we suppose to form? like the one I made or like the huge analasis of posts?
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Post what you'd like others to hear in case you die.
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EPT
