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Since Paper isn't here to defend himself, allow me to play devil's advocate. Perhaps I can at least persuade you that today the right lynch is Adam and that we can look at Paper tomorrow. My thoughts will be in bold/underlined. Pandain, please don't take this as an attack against you, I am merely trying to prevent a mislynch of someone I believe is claiming the truth.
On March 09 2012 08:30 Pandain wrote:The thing is it doesn't matter whether he had pushed Jackal beforehand..... Jackal was an easy target. Never posted and hardly a contribution, and was a vet. And they would've known he was town. Of course mafia would point at him. Just because there's consistancy doesn't mean he's town..... you have to look at the whole portrait. Take for example, his reads. He was suspicious of decon, jackal, and toast. Toast I actually am learning towards town now given the huge contributions he's been doing lately, trying to figure stuff out. Decon I'm almost certain is town. And Jackal, as we all know now, is town. Bad reads could be either town or mafia. This is something I've learned quite quickly this game.What has he done regarding the only confirmed mafia(sandroba) Show nested quote +Sandroba will by far be the easy lynch tomorrow and maybe rightly so. Posts one line content and filler. I don't agree with Sandroba's read on TheToast as of now. TheToast is null to me at the moment. I feel as though Sandroba might be too easy of a lynch. If Sandroba is mafia, then why lurk and post crap and be sure to get lynched. Does Sandroba just not care about the game? Maybe just a bored vanilla townie? Before the night ends, he states hish reasons against voting sandroba because "he's too easy." To be fair, When Sandroba claims, this is what he describes. Show nested quote +Ok so Sandroba claims vet or saved by medic. Why would Sandroba have been targeted as all last night? I don't think a medic would have been on Sandroba either. Thus that leaves the vet claim. Honestly I think Sandroba is SK that is claiming a fake hit. However later he would backtrack, saying that we should not lynch him because he claimed............vet.(yeah, vet). Show nested quote +Deconduo, TheToast, and Jackal are all better lynches. I don't know if we should lynch Sandroba yet, due to the hit claim. Sandroba is on ice though and needs to start contributing as do a lot of other players. First off, this doesn't make sense. You state specifically that he says we shouldn't lynch sandroba because he claimed "vet", then give a quote where he doesn't even mention that?
Also, this could very easily be a vigilante trying to figure out where the other shot would come from. If he knows that he's holding a shot, then he's going to be the most interested an vested in who the other shooters are.
Plus, if we were just to look at the Sandroba case, why should we have more reason to believe yourself over Paperscraps? You both made some shady vote switches which are going to be working against you now. If anything, you were more defensive about the Sandroba lynch than Paper was.After Sandroba basically gave up, Paper finally votes against him. Show nested quote +On March 06 2012 05:02 Paperscraps wrote:On March 06 2012 01:06 sandroba wrote:
I'm busy as fuck right now and I'm already working towards being replaced. I'm veteran. I got shot last night. That's all the info I have good luck. If you aren't even going to try, then you are going to get lynched. ##Unvote##Vote Sandroba
Side note: TheToast is scum. Then we have this suspicious post. Show nested quote +On March 06 2012 09:22 Paperscraps wrote:
Hmmmm, my gut tells me that Sandroba is vet, but logic dictates that Sandroba is mafia/SK. This bandwagon on Sandroba went up pretty darn fast. But, alas Sandroba hasn't taken his vote off of AKCT and not putting up a fight at all.
This lynch on Sandroba doesn't feel right. I feel if I change my vote though, people will think that scummy.
Only one person died last night. Something doesn't fit here.
Going to change my vote anyways. Back to my "tunnel" on Deconduo, who has been coasting.
##Unvote
##Vote: Deconduo
Inb4 people say I am scum trying to make myself look townie "if" Sandroba flips vet. Read this post, over and over. There are many things that feel wrong in this post. From the "inb4 you guys call me scum" to the "going to change my vote anyways , this post just is oddly timed. First off, he clearly states the truth here. The bandwagon on Sandroba went up really fast and Sandroba did not put up a fight. Again, I'd like to reiterate that you also did some very scummy things around the time of the Sandroba flip.
Also, again, he could merely be confused because he knows he has a shot.
Finally, I think you're being quite hypocritical: After your gambit against Tea you claimed that there was absolutely no way that you could be mafia. This sounds very similar to Paper's "inb4 you guys call me scum". Also, you're switch on Sandroba also looked very scummy, but you weren't afraid to do it. Why should Paper be?Then he posts this, which is his longest post, and coincidentally because he was accused of being scum. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=315210&user=62048¤tpage=2Note in this post he says he asked rg who he was going to shoot because "he wanted to play along." No , that's a horrible excuse. I can't even explain why its so wrong, just read it and realize why that 1. Isn't how you would do it. 2. Hurts town if he does say who he's going to shoot 3. is a anti town question in general. Do you think it's possible that he asked rg who he was going to shoot because, knowing that he himself is a vigilante, he knows that rg is fake claiming and he wants to find out what he's up to?
Also, this was your defense as to why it was okay for Adam to ask you if you were watcher/tracker:Show nested quote +If he was watcher/tracker, then he would be able to infer whether I was fake claiming. After all, there was a reason why I left it ambiguous whether I "was" tracker or watcher. If I claimed one, the real one could've counterclaimed and I would've looked super scummy. Maybe Paper is trying to infer whether rg was claiming so that he could counterclaim.
I just see a lot of things that look similar between yourself and Paper, which is why I don't see why you would be making this case. Can you not see these similarities?
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On March 09 2012 09:27 Bluelightz wrote:
I have a small feeling that Probulous might be scum............
I agree Paperscraps could be SK as how tonights number of KP that got fired was 2, Either that we have a gloriously awesome medic that blocked the SK shot last night or hit a vet I'm not sure.
Right now, I will vote Paperscraps instead of just leaving my vote to be useless on me
##Vote: Paperscraps
Bluelightz, I encourage you to read my response before you disappear.
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On March 09 2012 08:30 Pandain wrote:
The thing is it doesn't matter whether he had pushed Jackal beforehand.....Jackal was an easy target. Never posted and hardly a contribution, and was a vet. And they would've known he was town. Of course mafia would point at him. Just because there's consistancy doesn't mean he's town..... you have to look at the whole portrait.
You are right that consistency doesn't mean he is town but it is also reasonable that town would be consistent. It doesn't point one way or the other. Him FOSing Jackal early and continuing could be both town(tunelling) or mafia(setting a later play). It just means his reason for shooting Jackal is consistent.
Take for example, his reads. He was suspicious of decon, jackal, and toast. Toast I actually am learning towards town now given the huge contributions he's been doing lately, trying to figure stuff out. Decon I'm almost certain is town. And Jackal, as we all know now, is town.
Well Decon certainly wasn't completely townie Day 1 with his wrong read on me and Misder. Toast looked town to me but even you thought he was scum. Jackal was a big fat null to most people and given sandroba flipped scum when lurking there was no reason to think Jackal had to be town.
What has he done regarding the only confirmed mafia(sandroba) + Show Spoiler +Sandroba will by far be the easy lynch tomorrow and maybe rightly so. Posts one line content and filler. I don't agree with Sandroba's read on TheToast as of now. TheToast is null to me at the moment. I feel as though Sandroba might be too easy of a lynch. If Sandroba is mafia, then why lurk and post crap and be sure to get lynched. Does Sandroba just not care about the game? Maybe just a bored vanilla townie? Before the night ends, he states hish reasons against voting sandroba because "he's too easy." To be fair, When Sandroba claims, this is what he describes. Ok so Sandroba claims vet or saved by medic. Why would Sandroba have been targeted as all last night? I don't think a medic would have been on Sandroba either. Thus that leaves the vet claim. Honestly I think Sandroba is SK that is claiming a fake hit. However later he would backtrack, saying that we should not lynch him because he claimed............vet.(yeah, vet). Deconduo, TheToast, and Jackal are all better lynches. I don't know if we should lynch Sandroba yet, due to the hit claim. Sandroba is on ice though and needs to start contributing as do a lot of other players. After Sandroba basically gave up, Paper finally votes against him. On March 06 2012 05:02 Paperscraps wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2012 01:06 sandroba wrote:
I'm busy as fuck right now and I'm already working towards being replaced. I'm veteran. I got shot last night. That's all the info I have good luck. If you aren't even going to try, then you are going to get lynched. ##Unvote##Vote Sandroba
Side note: TheToast is scum. Then we have this suspicious post. On March 06 2012 09:22 Paperscraps wrote:
Hmmmm, my gut tells me that Sandroba is vet, but logic dictates that Sandroba is mafia/SK. This bandwagon on Sandroba went up pretty darn fast. But, alas Sandroba hasn't taken his vote off of AKCT and not putting up a fight at all.
This lynch on Sandroba doesn't feel right. I feel if I change my vote though, people will think that scummy.
Only one person died last night. Something doesn't fit here.
Going to change my vote anyways. Back to my "tunnel" on Deconduo, who has been coasting.
##Unvote
##Vote: Deconduo
Inb4 people say I am scum trying to make myself look townie "if" Sandroba flips vet. Read this post, over and over. There are many things that feel wrong in this post. From the "inb4 you guys call me scum" to the "going to change my vote anyways , this post just is oddly timed.
This is more damning, especially that last post. I pointed out previosuly how his statement "Only one person died last night. Something doesn't fit here" only makes sense if you know there is a SK or you are scum.
Then he posts this, which is his longest post, and coincidentally because he was accused of being scum. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=315210&user=62048¤tpage=2Note in this post he says he asked rg who he was going to shoot because "he wanted to play along." No , that's a horrible excuse. I can't even explain why its so wrong, just read it and realize why that 1. Isn't how you would do it. 2. Hurts town if he does say who he's going to shoot 3. is a anti town question in general.
I agree that this a terrible question. It makes sense for mafia to want to know who RG was going to target if they believed his claim. Given mafia shot him that night (the only other claimed shot came from mafia), this looks particularly damning.
Probulus, I feel that this is definitely a move to gain town cred. Whether he's mafia or SK I don't know yet, but I know that if I was mafia, I would pull off something like this. Think about it. You get to kill a townie and still "be town." What's there not good? Since we don't have a detective, its impossible to differentiate a mafia vig and a town vig. The only benefit it had, was, in fact, being able to say "oh im vig."
But why claim at all? In that matter especially. If you are concerned about being tracked it makes sense from a SK, Vig or mafia point of view to claim before the deadline. I guess waiting for the day post makes sense if you thought Jackal was the tracker and he flipped townie. Then you have to claim in case the real tracker followed you. Again this makes sense for a mafia/vig or SK. Honestly the claim doesn't add anything to the case against him.
I just don't feel like he would've shot jackal if he was town. Look at his posts. Before he was suspicious of Decondou. AFter he's suspicious of decondou. If he was more sure of Jackal then decondou(to the point where he would shoot him), he would've actually led a real charge on him.
Based on what? That he wasn't contributing? The case would be inherently weak and easily shot down by mafia.
He changes his stories regarding why he shot him, going from "yeah I wasn't certain of decon, jackal seemed scummy" to Show nested quote +I shot Jackal over Decon, because I had doubts about Decon being scum and didn't have doubts about Jackal
In General:
1. Fosed the same people (decondou, toast, jackal.) who i believe are town. You believe they are town now, not when he originally FOSd them. This is a weak point.
2. Resisted the Sandroba lynch, voted him only when he gave up, and even back tracked after.I think this is your strongest point actually.
3. Questionable shooting and dubious reasoning. Doesn't tell us anything about his alignment
Responses in Bold
I feel that definitely #2 is the weakest. But its evidence that he could, indeed, be mafia. The point I'm trying to make, is basically that mafia WOULD possibly do this because they had just lost sandroba, and given the lack of any vets besides me and decon, they're probably also doing dumb/risky stuff now too. Shooting Jackal as we all see clearly was a good move, as most of you believe him >.> I personally believe that he is the SK. I feel like this would be the right way for an SK to try and gain town cred; presenting himself as a vig.
This is WIFOM.
Also remember that Sandroba, mafia, got hit. As I highly doubt he would just randomly claim, this provides evidence for the fact that he must've gotten hit by either an SK or vig. Given the fact that no vig has claimed shooting him, there must be an sk.
I agree that it is likely there is a SK. Sandroba's claim is very weird otherwise. My point is that you are assuming that there is a SK and so Paperscraps' claim is fake. Yes there are other reasons for him being suspicious but his claim is not one of them. We don't know that there is a SK so lynching someone based on assuming there is one is terribad. Even if there is a SK that doen't mean that Paperscraps could not have Vigged Jackal. It really has no bearing on his alignment. Ultimately his fate will be sealed by our understanding of his voting around sandroba. If you strip the case back it consists of his flip-flopping on sandroba and his bad question to RG. I am not willing to lynch him based on that.
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It would not surprise me at this point if there is no SK but rather there is a mafia team of Sandroba, Adam, Pandain and Bluelightz.
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Current Vote Count:
Adam4167 -5
Deconduo
Paperscraps
Snarfs
Probulous
Adam4167
Paperscraps -2
Deconduo
Pandain
Bluelightz
Bluelightz -1
A Killer Cuppa Tea
Bluelightz
Adam4167
Snarfs
A Killer Cuppa Tea -0
Bluelightz
Probulous -0
Adam4167
If there is a mistake, please let me know. Day ends in roughly 2 hours. Please remember to vote before then, if you have not done so.
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On March 09 2012 10:00 Snarfs wrote:
It would not surprise me at this point if there is no SK but rather there is a mafia team of Sandroba, Adam, Pandain and Bluelightz.
Actually, that wasn't very well thought out. I rescind this comment for the time being.
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On March 09 2012 09:18 Adam4167 wrote:
This'll probably be my last post before my flip.
Really? What is with the passive aggressive martyr stuff? If you're town make yourself useful. Wailing about how the fates have conspired against you does you no justice.
Probulous When I see someone making terrible arguments like: Show nested quote +On March 07 2012 13:18 Probulous wrote:
What is also interesting but somewhat prone to WIFOM is that he targeted Palmar who is now dead. Jackal targeted him and is also now dead.
This is the kind of crap I expect to see from the mafia in a newbie game, not here. I had to double-check the posters name. Bad logic is not a scum sign, but someone who is known for using good logic and then starts using terrible logic IS a scum sign. Probulous is supposedly an up-and-coming good player around TL Mafia, and when I see him trotting out stuff like this, my alarm bells go off. WIFOM'ing away at the fact that two people I've had interactions with are now dead? seriously? awful. I cant believe you are trying to pin Jackals death on me after a vig has already claimed it. Its laughable!
I agree that is not my best action this game. I like how you ignore everything else I have said about you and focus on the one piece of WIFOM that I used. I even noted that it was WIFOM (linky). I don't get this, I use one small piece of weak logic and suddenly I am scum? Yes I try to avoid this but the rest of my case against you is really strong. Much better than yours which boils down to, "I expect better". Sorry mate I am trying but I can't be perfect.
In response to my case, he then starts to deflect back onto me, to call my (already minimal) credibility into question, here and here. That is a mafia tactic. Townies are concerned with clearing their guilt, mafia want to re-direct onto their attacker.
This is bullshit and you know it. Here is the sequence of events
No my friend you were responding to me, not the other way round. So there is no way I could be deflecting to you, I targeted you first. Even if you ignore this, I attacked you Day 2 for your scummy question to Pandain. My suspicions of you have been clear the whole time. Yours amounted toProbulous, why are you sheeping Palmar? His case on sandroba is weak. "You couldn't spot a townie??? oh, you're scum!".
(linky) and On March 05 2012 08:30 Adam4167 wrote:This is just spam, Probulous. I was not surprised at all that he flipped townie, nor was I surprised that he was lying all game. You didn't even believe all of his claims, you said as much here: Show nested quote +On March 03 2012 20:42 Probulous wrote:
RG stop playing the idiot. No-one believes the 1001 things you have claimed. Going to bed now. Thoughts in the morning. Your post doesn't even make sense, you start by stating that he claimed Vanilla Townie or possibly Veteran, then somehow finish that he's possibly a Vig or Veteran. What was the point of even posting that wall of text? It contributes nothing. ... The answer to that question provides nothing to town. It provides information to me. I ask because I wanted to know what Pandain was claiming to get a better grasp on if he was fake-claiming. "As I previously stated it was obvious that RG claims were bogus from a simple read of his filter", No, you didn't. You finished with the conclusion that he was a Veteran or a Vig. It is not a scummy question. Why aren't you calling me scum? You're implying it, but you aren't saying it.
This is in response to me calling you out on your scummy question. You never built a case on me until I called you out so don't tell me I am distratcing town. You are the one who did that.
Finally, this post here. I have already touched on this but I feel I need to go over it again. This post reeks of fear. If my cases are so 'flimsy' then there should be no need to lynch me before my 'flimsy' cases sway anyone, as they'll gain no traction.
It is not fear, it is prudence. I respect you as a player and find your scum play hard to read.
Where do we go from here:
I think the best course of action is to flip me. I know that might seem a bit strange for someone asking to die, but my reasoning is this:
-With me around and my alignment in question, people are going to be wondering what I am, due to my ... interesting behaviour this game. I am a distraction to town that needs to be removed.
-My reads will gain more weight after I'm dead. Once I flip, you can almost assuredly say that bluelightz is town.
-Another reason to hang me is to prevent the mafia from hanging the SK, my death buys him one more night to kill one of these scummy assholes
Martyring and using WIFOM which you say labels me as scum. Just because you die and might flip town does not make your reads any better. You are using the same logic that you are condemning me with. Finally I never called you an asshole so please don't do it to me. There is no need to get personal in here.
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Can we get a vote count in chronological order at the flip again? Thanks!
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On March 09 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:
Can we get a vote count in chronological order at the flip again? Thanks!
If wiggles does this with the write up then you will have it. otherwise use the all feature of viewing the thread 
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On March 09 2012 10:54 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:
Can we get a vote count in chronological order at the flip again? Thanks! If wiggles does this with the write up then you will have it. otherwise use the all feature of viewing the thread
Hahahaha!!!
Cracking the whip Mr Mattchew. Fair enough, I will get off my lazy ass and do it myself. Is there anyone still here? We have an hour to go and people have vanished.
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Mafia would never just randomly fake claim getting hit. If the game had gone on longer, then Sandroba would've been found out if he had faked it(as we would find out more info as the game goes on longer.) The fact that he claimed getting hit and yet didn't try to defend himself suggests to me that he didn't try to use it as a "town cred" thing, like he would've if he had been faking it.
If mafia fake it, their goal is to use it to gain town cred.
Sandroba didn't do it.
The point I'm trying to make about him FOS (i believe) town people, is the fact that hes STILL going against them. This very day he's gone against toast, decondou,and he shot jackal the night before! He defended sandroba, and you say that his reaosning for shooting jackal doesn't tell us anything about his alignment, but it does.
If his case was that "Inherently weak" he wouldn't have fricking SHOT him. Previous posts all suggested him feeling confident about toast being scum, why not shoot him? The point of the matter is that he's had dubious reasoning, and changed how he's said he's doing stuff.
And I didn't notice the "Only 1 guy died", but that is damning also.
The case is better , far better , then Adam, that's why I'm voting him.
We can lynch Adam tommorow.
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On March 09 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:
Can we get a vote count in chronological order at the flip again? Thanks!
My vote-count is in chronological order, just read from the bottom to the top 
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decondouuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu
you know he's sk
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##Vote: Adam4167
Probulous and Snarfs have both made decent cases against Adam. I still have a big FOS on Pandain and Paper, but it looks like for the moment those those two guys aren't going anywhere. (Day 4 we need to take a really really close look at both of them, at least one is scum and I think there is a good chance the other is the SK...)
As for Adam, while Probulous and Snarfs have brought up a lot of good points, for me the most interesting thing was your Day one attacks on Palmar. You voted Palmar, along with Paper, for lynching Day 1. Then Jackal breaks with everyone else and votes you for lynching day 2. Then Paper kills Jackal Night 2. Convenient, no? Something is off here.
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Votes assuming votes before the day post don't count
+ Show Spoiler [Vote Count] +Bluelightz = 1
1) Probulous
9) Snarfs
10) Adam4167
11) A Killer Cuppa Tea
14) Bluelightz
Paperscraps = 2
2) Pandain
7) Deconduo
16) Bluelightz
Probulous = 0
3) Adam4167
Adam4167 = 5
4) Probulous
5) Snarfs
6) Paperscraps
8) Deconduo
12) Snarfs
15) Adam4167
A Killer Cuppa Tea = 0
13) Bluelightz
+ Show Spoiler [Order of Vote Actions] +
1) Probulous votes for Bluelightz
2) Pandain votes for Paperscraps
3) Adam4167 votes for Probulous
4) Probulous votes for Adam4167
5) Snarfs votes for Adam4167
6) Paperscraps votes for Adam4167
7) Deconduo votes for Paperscraps
8) Deconduo votes for Adam4167
9) Snarfs votes for Bluelightz
10) Adam4167 votes for Bluelightz
11) A Killer Cuppa Tea votes for Bluelightz
12) Snarfs votes for Adam4167
13) Bluelightz votes for A Killer Cuppa Tea
14) Bluelightz votes for Bluelightz
15) Adam4167 votes for Adam4167
16) Bluelightz votes for Paperscraps
These have been spoilered so as to avoid the "He is posting useless lists and spamming the thread" accusations 
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You missed one Probulous XD
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On March 09 2012 11:04 Pandain wrote:
The point I'm trying to make about him FOS (i believe) town people, is the fact that hes STILL going against them. This very day he's gone against toast, decondou,and he shot jackal the night before! He defended sandroba, and you say that his reaosning for shooting jackal doesn't tell us anything about his alignment, but it does. If his case was that "Inherently weak" he wouldn't have fricking SHOT him. Previous posts all suggested him feeling confident about toast being scum, why not shoot him? The point of the matter is that he's had dubious reasoning, and changed how he's said he's doing stuff.
And I didn't notice the "Only 1 guy died", but that is damning also. The case is better , far better , then Adam, that's why I'm voting him. We can lynch Adam tommorow.
See this where we disagree. If Paper thought Jackal was scum, he had a reason to shoot him. Yes he originally thought decon was scum but he changed his mind on that and stated so in thread. I have no reason to believe this was an intentional plant. He could do it as scum or town but it is simpler if he is town. It's a long shot for scum because he could have shot decon anyway so why publicly change? As for Toast, it should be clear to most people that Toast's play has become more and more townie as the game has gone on. Even you recognise this, Jackal's did not. So as a town Vig you have to make a choice, the guy who is trying or the one who continues to lurk. I would have chosen not to shoot but he made a judgement call. In any case this rests on us determining why he made that choice. It is too much WIFOM for me to lynch him today.
The strongest part of the case against him is his Day 2 sandroba actions. When I compare his actions then with Adam's well Adam looks worse. He refuses to contribute then throws a weak vote on sandroba once it is clear he is getting lynched and then refuses to post during the night. Paper wants to clear his name, Adam does not. One is being more towny, so I am voting for the other. I was right about Toast trying to improve, I believe the same about Paper.
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On March 09 2012 11:20 TheToast wrote:
You missed one Probulous XD
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On March 09 2012 11:30 Probulous wrote:
My vote, you didn't count it lol.
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A Killer Cuppa Tea
Where you at brother? You voted for Bluelightz when he had a few votes on him and have since disappeared. He isn't getting lynched today (unlikely) and you don't seem to be pushing for him to be lynched or defending Adam. Care to explain?
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EPT
