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Mr. Wiggles Mini Mafia II - Page 34

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 08 2012 21:57 GMT
#661
Pandain, him being a mafia Vig makes even less sense unless you think his mafia buddy would let him claim like that. It is effectively the same as his being mafia. Can you respond to this post for me please.
On March 08 2012 08:04 Probulous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 07 2012 19:33 deconduo wrote: Given the missing KP, I'm inclined to think Paper is SK, and was worried about being tracked. Jackal was a blue read for me, which would explain why Paper would go after him. When none of the bodies flipped Tracker, he claimed the shot figuring if he didn't he'd lynched on the spot if he had been tracked. Its a bit of a stretch, but I can't see anything else that makes more sense. It also explains why he would wait for the day post.

This seems to be the crux of the issue. If Paper was worried about being tracked he would have to claim the shot. Now unfortunately that makes sense whether he is a Vig, Mafia or SK. If he is worried that someone has seen him shoot then he needs to claim even if he is blue. Otherwise they claim and his counterclaim looks terrible, so the claim itself doesn't make him scum.

As for waiting for the day post that again doesn't make sense from a mafia, vig or SK POV. If he was worried about being tracked it would have better if he was any of these roles to claim before the day post. Again that would lend his claim credibility, regardless of whether he was vig, mafia or SK. I honestly think it was a mistake or just not knowing what to do in that case. This makes me think he is either a Vig or SK, his mafia buddy would surely have pointed that out to him (a tad of WIFOM here so tread with caution).
Show nested quote +
On March 07 2012 22:42 deconduo wrote:
I don't think its a stretch to think we'd have a Tracker + Watcher but no medic. However, what I think doesn't really matter, its what Paper thought at the day post. He claimed exactly one minute after the post, so he didn't have time to think about his decision. He was obviously waiting for something, and was going base his claim on the contents of the day post.

Yes, he was waiting to see whether Jackal died. The problem as above, is that you have separate the motivations between a Vig, mafia or SK shot and his timing is bad for all three.

Show nested quote +
On March 08 2012 03:09 Paperscraps wrote:
I wanted town to know as much as possible about how the KP was distributed. In hindsight I should have claimed before day post, but this is the first time I have been a vig in a forum game. A lot of people fosed Jackal at the end of the night. Jackal even posted right after me, so he was obviously around, but didn't post relevant material during the night. If he had scum hunted during the night that would have swayed my decision.

This is where we can tell whether Paperscraps is town or not. His motivation for shooting Jackal. He says that Jackal was looking scummy, which is true. He had FOS'd Jackal since the Misder vote. Yes he was on decon more but it was not like he suddenly decided Jackal was scum. This quote in hindsight looks promising
Show nested quote +
On March 06 2012 20:58 Paperscraps wrote:It seems like everyone thinks Decon is town except for me, so I could very well be wrong. I will be objective about this and look into the filters of others I think are scummy. inb4 "you are backpedaling scum"

Note this post from Toast
Show nested quote +
On March 07 2012 07:16 TheToast wrote:
If Sandro's claim is true, and there is an SK; top people to question/track/watch should be Paper, and Jackal.

It is not unreasonable for Paper to believe he was being tracked. He was on the scummy list of a few people and had been called out in the thread as a track target.

In conclusion, as shocking as this sounds I believe Paperscraps is a vigilante. I think he second guessed himself about Decon and so shot his second target. He was concerned about being tracked so claimed the hit when he thought it best. The hope was that he would have his named cleared when Jackal flipped scum. Was it the best play? Hell no but it makes sense to me.

If nothing else note his persistance in trying to clear his name. He is clearly frustrated but is putting in the effort to try and make his thinking clear. Compare that to Adam, who is apparently still too busy to participate. Decon I agree it would be nice to lower KP with a SK lynch but I don't believe that Paper is the SK (if we have one). We lynch Adam today.

"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
TheToast
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States4808 Posts
March 08 2012 21:57 GMT
#662
Switching gears a bit:

On March 09 2012 06:16 Pandain wrote:
Before I go on, I want everyone to remember that this is the work of 24 hours of constant lurking, re reading, re-re reading, going through each filter again and again, rereading thread in entirety, and even night time pondering.

I don't believe Paperscraps. I feel people are beliving he is town merely because he claimed vig. Everyone seems to have forgotten this role....

Show nested quote +
On February 25 2012 12:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:

Vigilante: You are a Vigilante! Once per game, starting night 1, you may send in a night hit.


This doesn't mean its scum, but it does make us remember that there are now three possibilities for Paperscraps to be:

1. Serial killer.
2. Mafia Vigilante
3. Vigilante

Him claiming vigilante in no way makes him town. Rather, we must analyze two things in determining his alignment:

1. His reasoning/motivation behind shooting Jackal
2. His posts/votes this game(Normal Analysis)

I'll be posting more once I make sense of everything.....



Pandain, we haven't heard so much as a peep out of you for like 30 hours, and you come back with this fluff-filled post? Why was it necessary to quote the OP? Why was it necessary to quote THE WHOLE description of the Mafia Vig? Like we can't figure out what the Mafia Vig might be?

And what's with that last line (the one I bolded)? In 36 hours and you need more time to "make sense" of things? What the hell have you been doing?

And this post contains not one BUT TWO pointless lists? This reeks of scummy fluff.
I like the way the walls go out. Gives you an open feeling. Firefly's a good design. People don't appreciate the substance of things. Objects in space. People miss out on what's solid.
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
March 08 2012 21:58 GMT
#663
On March 09 2012 06:28 Pandain wrote:
Decondou I think your town and value your opinion, what do you make of paperscraps claim?


SK. If not SK, probably town, because there's no way his mafia parter(s) would allow him to make a claim as dumb as that. However given his play and the fact that the KP adds up, I'm pretty sure he's SK.
TheToast
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States4808 Posts
March 08 2012 22:03 GMT
#664
Probulous you broke my train

Anyway, for Day 3 I think Pandain and Adam are the best votes right now.

While there is a good case against Paper, it really does hinge on Sandro's claim. While I think his claim was real (Probulous made a good point somewhere about this) lynching someone based on it just risks too much in terms of walking into a scum trap. If someone sees something I missed that adds to the evidence then I would say he should be lynched but right now the evidence is so circumstancial....

Bluelightz is.... idk wtf we should do with him. As I said getting a read on him is almost impossible. And if he is town and we lynch him, that't not necessarily bad. He doesn't contribute at all. I just don't know where that fits in terms of lynch priority. There is a decent case for Adam being scum, but a Bluelightz lynch could help town regardless of his alignment (and we could be lucky and he's the SK). And Pandain is shady as fuck.

So I'm a bit lost on what the priority should be right now

Thoughts?
I like the way the walls go out. Gives you an open feeling. Firefly's a good design. People don't appreciate the substance of things. Objects in space. People miss out on what's solid.
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 08 2012 22:06 GMT
#665
On March 09 2012 06:56 TheToast wrote:
***The last two here are really interesting. I want to go back to something I said before. If the hit against Sandro was real, and it came from the SK: the SK would be likely to believe Sandro's vet claim. After all, the SK would know that Sandro got shot and didn't die, why wouldn't you believe the vet claim?


Because the shot could have been blocked by a mafia medic (turned out to be true, if there was a shot). You're making big assumptions here Toast. We have no concrete proof there is a SK. It all rests on whether sandro's claim was a fake claim or not and whether Paper is a Vig (mafia or town).

I think Paper is more likely to flip town than mafia or SK. He spotlighted Jackal from the start and then doubted himself on decon. It makes sense that his second choice shot would be Jackal. Now yes this could be a long term mafia play, but we can't know that until we can confirm the existence of a SK.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Snarfs
Profile Joined November 2010
Canada1006 Posts
March 08 2012 22:19 GMT
#666
On March 09 2012 07:03 TheToast wrote:
And Pandain is shady as fuck.

Thoughts?

While I know there are a few people who I've pointed out as being shady, Paperscraps right at the top of the list, this is something I can keep coming back to agree on.

Notice how when asking for someone else's opinion on Paper, he asks the only other guy to have voted for him today? That's shadddddy.
TheToast
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States4808 Posts
March 08 2012 22:24 GMT
#667
On March 09 2012 07:06 Probulous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2012 06:56 TheToast wrote:
***The last two here are really interesting. I want to go back to something I said before. If the hit against Sandro was real, and it came from the SK: the SK would be likely to believe Sandro's vet claim. After all, the SK would know that Sandro got shot and didn't die, why wouldn't you believe the vet claim?


Because the shot could have been blocked by a mafia medic (turned out to be true, if there was a shot). You're making big assumptions here Toast. We have no concrete proof there is a SK. It all rests on whether sandro's claim was a fake claim or not and whether Paper is a Vig (mafia or town).

I think Paper is more likely to flip town than mafia or SK. He spotlighted Jackal from the start and then doubted himself on decon. It makes sense that his second choice shot would be Jackal. Now yes this could be a long term mafia play, but we can't know that until we can confirm the existence of a SK.


To the bolded part: I think if the SK shot someone, they didn't die, and then claimed vet it would make sense to believe them. It's would be a gamble but one that could pay off. If Sandro's claim is true and he got shot, I think there is really good evidence against Paper. The way he backed off of Sandro Day 2 when it was clear he was going to be lynched (and that reasoning too, "I have a gut feeling" what kind of reasoning is that?) just seemed strange.

Either way I agree with the fact that the SK's existance and Paper's alighment hinges entirely on Sandro's claim. This is exactly why I said I'm not supporting his lynch Day 3. (Though you were arguing earlier that it was a believable claim) We can't take the risk given what we know now for sure about Sandro.

Anyway re-read my post, I'm essentially arguing the same thing as you on Paper.

I listed all those time he called out Jackal as well (in the spoiler). Without considering Sandro's claim he looks townish. But I said before, I'm going to proceed as though Sandro's claim was real but not use it as the only evidence to lynch someone. That's the situation right here, so FOS: Paper but no vote until I can come up with some other evidence...




Back to the other issue, what do you think should be the D3 lynch priority?
I like the way the walls go out. Gives you an open feeling. Firefly's a good design. People don't appreciate the substance of things. Objects in space. People miss out on what's solid.
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 08 2012 22:24 GMT
#668
On March 09 2012 07:03 TheToast wrote:
While there is a good case against Paper, it really does hinge on Sandro's claim. While I think his claim was real (Probulous made a good point somewhere about this) lynching someone based on it just risks too much in terms of walking into a scum trap. If someone sees something I missed that adds to the evidence then I would say he should be lynched but right now the evidence is so circumstancial....


Ok here is my thinking of the possible scenarios we have
We have a SK
  • SK hits sandroba who is saved by a mafia medic.
    There is no reason for the SK not to shoot Night 1 and sandroba's claim was weak. If it was a fake claim you would expect more fanfare (WIFOM). If the claim was real then it must have come from the SK. This means there is a mafia medic.
  • SK hits Palmar or Jackal.
    This would explain the two kills but we can't tell which one the SK hits. We also can't tell whether Paper is lieing because Jackal or Palmar could have been double-stacked. A semi competent medic would have been protecting Palmar given his indentification of sandroba as scum so this is not completely farfetched.


There is no SK
  • sandroba fake claims a shot.
    He could have done this assuming there was a SK. Palmar and others had made it clear that they thought one exists for balance purposes. If people believed the claim it might help clear his name after the Day 1 vote. The problem with this is the manner in which he claimed.
  • Paperscraps Vigs Jackal.
    This explains the second killpoint regardless of whether Paper is scum or not. It would be reasonable for scum to shoot Palmar as he was the first to identify sandroba as scum. It was a risk if we have a medic but it paid off for them. Paper had previously outlined his suspicion of Jackal.


Ultimately we can't know given the information we have. The kill points won't help us identify whether Paper is lieing or not because Palmar/Jackal could have been doublestacked. So I think it is best to look at his motivations for his claim. I am yet to see a reasonable response to my case for his innocence. Until I do I won't be voting for him.

"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 08 2012 22:38 GMT
#669
On March 09 2012 07:24 TheToast wrote:
Back to the other issue, what do you think should be the D3 lynch priority?


Adam4167

I think Paperscraps is a town vigilante. Yes I believe his claim because as I keep outlining the supposedly "scummy" things (eg. timing) about his claim are bad for town, mafia and SK so I don't see how it makes him scum. He was consistent in his FOS on Jackal and second guessed himself on decon.

As for Pandain, I am looking at his push for the sandroba lynch. Right now that is what makes him town in my mind but I am taking a closer look.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Snarfs
Profile Joined November 2010
Canada1006 Posts
March 08 2012 22:42 GMT
#670
On March 09 2012 07:38 Probulous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2012 07:24 TheToast wrote:
Back to the other issue, what do you think should be the D3 lynch priority?


Adam4167

I think Paperscraps is a town vigilante. Yes I believe his claim because as I keep outlining the supposedly "scummy" things (eg. timing) about his claim are bad for town, mafia and SK so I don't see how it makes him scum. He was consistent in his FOS on Jackal and second guessed himself on decon.

As for Pandain, I am looking at his push for the sandroba lynch. Right now that is what makes him town in my mind but I am taking a closer look.

I think you're confusing something. Pandain was never pushing for a Sandroba lynch. He was actively against it.
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 08 2012 22:43 GMT
#671
On March 07 2012 09:59 Pandain wrote:
Palmar is town or badass sk. Jackal COULD be SK but I'm leaning towards not. He's definitely not playing pro town....

bluelightz/adam/jackal one or more of them is mafia.


Given this Pandain, what is your current opinion of Adam? Despite the ruckus between us you haven't commented on it at all which is very odd given you thought he was possibly scum.

Would you vote for him over Paperscraps?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 08 2012 22:57 GMT
#672
On March 09 2012 07:42 Snarfs wrote:
I think you're confusing something. Pandain was never pushing for a Sandroba lynch. He was actively against it.

The more I read this game the more I realise I should be listening to you Still reading but yes he was actively against the sandroba lynch. I think my back and forth with him on the day convinced me otherwise. More to come.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 08 2012 23:20 GMT
#673
I also believed Toast was scum at that point which made Pandain look more towny. Anyway, here is my reading of Pandain's Day 2.

In this post (linky) I outlined why I thought it was possible that sandroba was scum. Specifically this
The issue I have with the veteran claim is the manner in which he claimed it. Most vets celebrate when they get shot, they have achieved their aim. His was a BTW sort of admission. Combined with his lurky play I don't believe his vet claim. That leaves SK or mafia. I don't agree with Pandain that he isn't being defended. Toast is pretty vehement that Pandain is scum. Chainsaw much?

A Sandroba lynch will confirm the existence of a Serial Killer if he flips Veteran (unlikely). If he flips scum we celebrate and we know they have a medic. If he flips SK we have removed a potential issue for town. He isn't playing well and I would guess would probably shoot town before he shoots scum.

Pandain's response is
On March 06 2012 08:19 Pandain wrote:
And toast is negligient, he merely is focused on me because I've been focused on him. He's been on me since day 1, and he hasn't supported Sandroba. There is effectively no support for Sandroba. But again, this only indicates he's not scum, as they wouldn't just let him(and he wouldn't be so lethargic about getting lynched), die when theres a valid excuse. But I'm not even denying that Sandroba is probably scum. The key fact is that by lynching him we effectively waste a day to either confirm what we already assumed(he's SK), or the fact that he's a vet(in which case we just lynched a town woopdie doo). If we make him unable to shoot for fear of getting caught, then we don't even have to worry about him harming town.

His argument was that the SK would not shoot if he was being tracked. This is a stupid argument because it assume sandroba is the SK. If he is the serial killer, you make him swing because he does not win with town. Yes he can shoot mafia but we have no guarantee he will and in the meantime could shoot townies instead. I explained this to Toast in a later post (linky). I then responded to Pandain's case with this post (linky). Especially this bit
On March 06 2012 08:28 Probulous wrote:
You reasoning rests of two assumptions
  • He is the SK
  • Mafia would defend him if he was scum

The first can only be confirmed by a flip. The second is big. He was scummy since Day 1 and was almost lynched. Then he was shot overnight. Despite all this he has not attempted to provide any analysis at all. Anyone straight up defending him would have to use really weird logic or a chainsaw defense. Surely it is better to let him swing and waste town's time on someone who is clearly not town. Plus they can gain a little cred for his flip and can hide amongst the rest of the votes. I don't see why this is unlikely. If he is mafia they have a medic and he clearly isn't it (he can't protect himself).

This spears his whole argument that sandroba can't be scum because no-one is defending him. His very next post is this one (linky)
On March 06 2012 08:37 Pandain wrote:
I actually change my mind, but mainly for two reasons:

1. By having tracker continuously track him, it wastes tracker time when he could be finding more scum(and tracker tracking new people is arguably more important then finding out more evidence).
2. Mafia KP is hidden, so the SK might not actually exist.

He doesn't even acknowledge my explanations for why mafia would bus him. The comes this lovely post
On March 06 2012 12:16 Pandain wrote:
If you care to take a look, my thought process was clear and logical. No one ended up pointing out the flaws in the plan which I would later discover on my own, so when I did discover them I changed. I wouldn't change because of Toast lol.

Yes you discovered errors in your logic but there were others pointed out that you refused to comment on. Since then it has been all troll and no substance. I agree with Toast that his latest attempt at providing information is a major source of fluff (linky) as it provides nothing we didn't know already.

Pandain accused me of spamming early game and I admit I do post a lot. But I always try and provide something with my posts. Pandain has spammed oneliners and crazy polls and pages of quotes and the only thing of substance he provided was a weak case to track sandroba instead of lynching him. He was suspicious of Adam but didn't comment when we went at each other. I think a Pandain, Adam scum team is likely.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12985 Posts
March 08 2012 23:24 GMT
#674
stop posting i have to keep adding to it because of you guys
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12985 Posts
March 08 2012 23:30 GMT
#675
The thing is it doesn't matter whether he had pushed Jackal beforehand.....

Jackal was an easy target. Never posted and hardly a contribution, and was a vet. And they would've known he was town. Of course mafia would point at him.

Just because there's consistancy doesn't mean he's town..... you have to look at the whole portrait.

Take for example, his reads. He was suspicious of decon, jackal, and toast. Toast I actually am learning towards town now given the huge contributions he's been doing lately, trying to figure stuff out. Decon I'm almost certain is town. And Jackal, as we all know now, is town.

What has he done regarding the only confirmed mafia(sandroba)
+ Show Spoiler +
Sandroba will by far be the easy lynch tomorrow and maybe rightly so. Posts one line content and filler. I don't agree with Sandroba's read on TheToast as of now. TheToast is null to me at the moment. I feel as though Sandroba might be too easy of a lynch. If Sandroba is mafia, then why lurk and post crap and be sure to get lynched. Does Sandroba just not care about the game? Maybe just a bored vanilla townie?

Before the night ends, he states hish reasons against voting sandroba because "he's too easy."

To be fair, When Sandroba claims, this is what he describes.
Ok so Sandroba claims vet or saved by medic. Why would Sandroba have been targeted as all last night? I don't think a medic would have been on Sandroba either. Thus that leaves the vet claim. Honestly I think Sandroba is SK that is claiming a fake hit.


However later he would backtrack, saying that we should not lynch him because he claimed............vet.(yeah, vet).
Deconduo, TheToast, and Jackal are all better lynches. I don't know if we should lynch Sandroba yet, due to the hit claim. Sandroba is on ice though and needs to start contributing as do a lot of other players.


After Sandroba basically gave up, Paper finally votes against him.
On March 06 2012 05:02 Paperscraps wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 06 2012 01:06 sandroba wrote:
I'm busy as fuck right now and I'm already working towards being replaced. I'm veteran. I got shot last night. That's all the info I have good luck.


If you aren't even going to try, then you are going to get lynched.

##Unvote

##Vote Sandroba




Side note: TheToast is scum.


Then we have this suspicious post.
On March 06 2012 09:22 Paperscraps wrote:
Hmmmm, my gut tells me that Sandroba is vet, but logic dictates that Sandroba is mafia/SK. This bandwagon on Sandroba went up pretty darn fast. But, alas Sandroba hasn't taken his vote off of AKCT and not putting up a fight at all.

This lynch on Sandroba doesn't feel right. I feel if I change my vote though, people will think that scummy.

Only one person died last night. Something doesn't fit here.

Going to change my vote anyways. Back to my "tunnel" on Deconduo, who has been coasting.

##Unvote

##Vote: Deconduo

Inb4 people say I am scum trying to make myself look townie "if" Sandroba flips vet.

Read this post, over and over. There are many things that feel wrong in this post. From the "inb4 you guys call me scum" to the "going to change my vote anyways , this post just is oddly timed.

Then he posts this, which is his longest post, and coincidentally because he was accused of being scum.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=315210&user=62048&currentpage=2
Note in this post he says he asked rg who he was going to shoot because "he wanted to play along." No , that's a horrible excuse. I can't even explain why its so wrong, just read it and realize why that
1. Isn't how you would do it.
2. Hurts town if he does say who he's going to shoot
3. is a anti town question in general.





Probulus, I feel that this is definitely a move to gain town cred. Whether he's mafia or SK I don't know yet, but I know that if I was mafia, I would pull off something like this. Think about it. You get to kill a townie and still "be town." What's there not good?



Since we don't have a detective, its impossible to differentiate a mafia vig and a town vig. The only benefit it had, was, in fact, being able to say "oh im vig."

I just don't feel like he would've shot jackal if he was town. Look at his posts. Before he was suspicious of Decondou. AFter he's suspicious of decondou. If he was more sure of Jackal then decondou(to the point where he would shoot him), he would've actually led a real charge on him. He changes his stories regarding why he shot him, going from "yeah I wasn't certain of decon, jackal seemed scummy" to
I shot Jackal over Decon, because I had doubts about Decon being scum and didn't have doubts about Jackal


In General:
1. Fosed the same people (decondou, toast, jackal.) who i believe are town.
2. Resisted the Sandroba lynch, voted him only when he gave up, and even back tracked after.
3. Questionable shooting and dubious reasoning.

I feel that definitely #2 is the weakest. But its evidence that he could, indeed, be mafia. The point I'm trying to make, is basically that mafia WOULD possibly do this because they had just lost sandroba, and given the lack of any vets besides me and decon, they're probably also doing dumb/risky stuff now too. Shooting Jackal as we all see clearly was a good move, as most of you believe him >.>

I personally believe that he is the SK. I feel like this would be the right way for an SK to try and gain town cred; presenting himself as a vig.

Also remember that Sandroba, mafia, got hit. As I highly doubt he would just randomly claim, this provides evidence for the fact that he must've gotten hit by either an SK or vig. Given the fact that no vig has claimed shooting him, there must be an sk.

Who do you guys think it is ?
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12985 Posts
March 08 2012 23:32 GMT
#676
Also when I don't respond to you its because it was a dumb argument that I didn't need to respond to.
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 08 2012 23:36 GMT
#677
Whilst that is certainly more substantial it is going to take some breaking down. I'm having a think and will get back to you. In the meantime do you still think Adam is suspicious and if so would you vote for him?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12985 Posts
March 08 2012 23:42 GMT
#678
Theres no one else besides Adam really.

On February 25 2012 12:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Player List:
1. Jackal58 Townie shot night 2
2. Paperscraps
3. Bluelightz-
4. Probulous
5. Snarfs

6. rgTheSchworz Townie killed night 1
7. Misder Townie lynched day 1
8. Pandain
9. Palmar Watcher killed night 2
10. Sandroba Goon lynched day 2
11. TheToast
12. Adam4167
13. A Killer Cuppa Tea
14. deconduo


Basically my suspicions go like this:
Paper, Adam, bluelightz+ akct.

Adam4167
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia1426 Posts
March 09 2012 00:18 GMT
#679
Here's a paragraph on each player to give you an idea of where my reads are at. This'll probably be my last post before my flip.

Bluelightz
I am almost certain that bluelightz is town. At the time of this post, the votes were 3 for me vs. 2 for bluelightz. Bluelightz had the easy option of just OMGUS voting me and pretty well sealing my fate, instead he chose to go against the grain, say I might actually be town and vote elsewhere. This is either some of the most well thought out (and risky!) mafia play I have ever seen, or he is town.

Snarfs
Snarfs is actively trying to contribute in this game. He's asking questions where they should be asked, following his reads and doing everything I expect of a new-but-good town player.

Paperscraps
Paperscraps looks alright to me. His recent switch to voting me feels like self-preservation, which is fine, I did the same earlier with bluelightz. I have the sneaking suspicion that he is the SK.

Pandain
Pandain's disappearing act of the last two days is a bit concerning, but my previous read on him was all town. He defended me against Probulous, who thought I was asking a 'scummy scummy question', because he picked up that I was implying I might be a watcher/tracker. Sadly, I am not the tracker, I was feigning a blue role in the attempt to get shot, but it was entirely reasonable to think I was the tracker in that situation.

TheToast
I too have taken a few hits from the Civs' 5 crack pipe, I know how easy it is to lose days on that shit. That said, I wish he had played a bigger part in this game. I get a townish feeling from reading his filter so I'm happy to say he's probably lurky-town.

deconduo
Tiny filter, filled with one to two lines per post. I think his biggest post is when he reformatted rgTheSchworz post for him, so not even his own work. I really don't know what to make of him right now, but id probably hang him just to be on the safe side. Could go either way.

A Killer Cuppa Tea
AKCT. Has a single pager filter on day 3. His voting reasons are beyond bizarre. On day 1 he votes Probulous due to some ridiculous reasons, then retracts it and blames it on alcohol, and instead votes for Misder with equally crap reasons, who flips town. On day 2, he votes for myself for not jumping on the lynch AKCT train to kill him, his reason being I "looked like I was trying to gain town credit". Finally on day 3, when most of the town is staring firmly at me, where he would well be justified in voting for me, he votes for bluelightz instead, implying that we are both scum, yet he wants to kill bluelightz first.
This guys brain is broken. I have no clue what his alignment is but I really suggest hanging him or having a vig/SK deal with this, because he is skating by, throwing out shit votes, not contributing and not even trying.

Probulous
When I see someone making terrible arguments like:
On March 07 2012 13:18 Probulous wrote:
What is also interesting but somewhat prone to WIFOM is that he targeted Palmar who is now dead. Jackal targeted him and is also now dead.

This is the kind of crap I expect to see from the mafia in a newbie game, not here. I had to double-check the posters name. Bad logic is not a scum sign, but someone who is known for using good logic and then starts using terrible logic IS a scum sign. Probulous is supposedly an up-and-coming good player around TL Mafia, and when I see him trotting out stuff like this, my alarm bells go off. WIFOM'ing away at the fact that two people I've had interactions with are now dead? seriously? awful. I cant believe you are trying to pin Jackals death on me after a vig has already claimed it. Its laughable!
In response to my case, he then starts to deflect back onto me, to call my (already minimal) credibility into question, here and here. That is a mafia tactic. Townies are concerned with clearing their guilt, mafia want to re-direct onto their attacker.
Finally, this post here. I have already touched on this but I feel I need to go over it again. This post reeks of fear. If my cases are so 'flimsy' then there should be no need to lynch me before my 'flimsy' cases sway anyone, as they'll gain no traction.


Where do we go from here:
I think the best course of action is to flip me. I know that might seem a bit strange for someone asking to die, but my reasoning is this:
-With me around and my alignment in question, people are going to be wondering what I am, due to my ... interesting behaviour this game. I am a distraction to town that needs to be removed.
-My reads will gain more weight after I'm dead. Once I flip, you can almost assuredly say that bluelightz is town.
-Another reason to hang me is to prevent the mafia from hanging the SK, my death buys him one more night to kill one of these scummy assholes.



If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful then you could possibly imagine

##Vote Adam4167
Bluelightz
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Indonesia2463 Posts
March 09 2012 00:27 GMT
#680
I have a small feeling that Probulous might be scum............

I agree Paperscraps could be SK as how tonights number of KP that got fired was 2, Either that we have a gloriously awesome medic that blocked the SK shot last night or hit a vet I'm not sure.

Right now, I will vote Paperscraps instead of just leaving my vote to be useless on me

##Vote: Paperscraps
Roses Are Red, Violets Are Blue, Radiation Is Good Because Nuclear bombs go BOOM | I love TL Mafia! ♥ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 ♥| Mvp is most boss
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