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On March 06 2012 09:41 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2012 18:25 deconduo wrote:Why would he be worried about getting shot if he knew he had a medic to save him? In fact, I think SK is far far more likely as they would have the most to lose by getting shot; losing their night life. A mafia with a medic to back them up is basically immune to night hits, so shouldn't be worried at all. Show nested quote +On March 06 2012 07:52 deconduo wrote:
I agree that he isn't scum, but he's almost certainly SK. We're better off lynching him now, rather than letting him get another shot off. Paper, decon doesn't read as scum to me. Your case was that he was pushing bad cases. Well when it was clear they weren't happening (me) he dropped it. That could be scum or town. Misder disappeared and never responded to anything so it would be monumentally stupid of decon to remove his vote without something to explain it. I mean if Misder could get off by just not saying anything then we would never lynch mafia. He followed through with his case and was wrong. At least he was clear on his intention to lynch Misder. Compare that with Toast's actions. He chose to not to vote for his "SK" and let a townie swing. His actions are far more scummy than decon. Sandroba has been actively useless (is there such a thing?). He is around and posts enough to avoid the modkill but doesn't bother to add anything of use. Is there anything more to your case than his bad reads?
1. Decon's read on Misder was wrong. Probulous he called you scum as well. Was he wrong in that?
2. Decon says making lists are pointless, claiming they are filler. I disagree
3. Decon's reaction to me calling him scum was bad. He over reacted. I find this scummy.
4. Decon's reaction to Misder flipping scum was bad. He wasn't remorseful about it.
5. Decon also rages at Sandroba for being useless this game, saying a vig should shoot Sandroba. There is merit here for both town and mafia play.
6. Decon has been coasting the past two days. Posting filler, no scum hunting, not very town.
7. Decon votes up Sandroba, calling him "almost certainly SK". There is merit here for both town and mafia play once again.
It seems like everyone thinks Decon is town except for me, so I could very well be wrong. I will be objective about this and look into the filters of others I think are scummy.
inb4 "you are backpedaling scum"
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Also on side note: Since Sandroba flipped mafia. What does everyone think of the hit claim?
1. The hit claim was fake.
2. The hit was real and mafia/town medic saved Sandroba?
There is a lot of wifom here. Thinking about this could help determine if there is an SK or not.
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There's really no way to know which it is until morning.
Even then, there's situations where it could be ambiguous.
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Adam, why did you disagree with me? Do you think I'm dumb?
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Nope, not in the slightest. I disagreed with you because I thought you might be scum.
I wanted to see your reaction and get a better grip on what was actually happening.
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do you think I'm scum now?
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On March 06 2012 15:12 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2012 12:34 Jackal58 wrote:On March 06 2012 12:06 Adam4167 wrote:
Town Adam does as he pleases, regadless of what people think of him.
Town Adam is also developing a habit of defending mafia. Really need to work on that. As it should be. I knew GMarshall. You sir are no GMarshall. Whats with the GMarshall comment? Even though I have massive respect for him, I was never trying to be him??
I don't remember the game but GMarshall defended almost every scum that got lynched. As a townie. Was quite funny after the fact.
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On March 06 2012 23:08 Palmar wrote:
do you think I'm scum now?
I think you're 3rd party.
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On March 06 2012 23:12 Jackal58 wrote:I think you're 3rd party.
Of course you do!
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On March 06 2012 23:08 Palmar wrote:
do you think I'm scum now?
No.
Its not out of the realm of possibility that you knew sandroba was going to be useless and bused him, but I think looking elsewhere right now is a better usage of my time.
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Wow Snarfs with some nice analysis. Paper's scum hunting this game has really been pretty lackluster so far this game. I don't know that makes him scum, but definitely a reason to keep an eye on him.
This caught my eye though:
On March 06 2012 21:04 Paperscraps wrote:
Also on side note: Since Sandroba flipped mafia. What does everyone think of the hit claim?
1. The hit claim was fake.
2. The hit was real and mafia/town medic saved Sandroba?
There is a lot of wifom here. Thinking about this could help determine if there is an SK or not.
It's interesting that you are the one who asked this question, given your last minute vote change day 2.
But let's set that aside for a minute and address this question. Two possibilities here, the hit on Sandro was real, or the hit on Sandro was made up BS. Let's assume:
The hit on Sandro was real: In this case we either have a vig or an SK. In the case of a vig, I would think they would have claimed by now. After a vig uses their shot they are basically not really a danger to scum anymore, other than being a confirmed townie. (in NMM 1 prphlz made it all the way to the end of the game after claiming vig) So really, there isn't much good reason for a vig to not to claim, especially in a circumstance where a claim could have really helped determine a players alignment and determine if there is an SK in this game.
If the hit was real, I think the most likely circumstance is an SK. Let's assume that the SK hit Sandro and a medic protected him. From the point of view of the SK, Sandro's vet claim would have probably seemed decently legit. This makes me wonder about the people who made passionate strange defenses of Sandro Day 2 (after all the SK would want to keep town around and kill mafia). In this theorectical situation the people who come out looking SK-ish are Jackle and Paperscraps (that's where I tie this in with my previous point about Paper being the one to ask this question) for their aversion to voting Sandro. Neither provided very good reasoning for not voting Sandro, could have been they believed the vet claim. The other person that I would have to give a big FOS to in this situation would be Pandain, his bizzare defense of Sandro then flip-flop seems really strange. Maybe he also had good reason to believe Sandro's claim?
The hit on Sandro was fake: If the hit was fake, SK could still exist (shot stacked with mafia shot on RG?). But this seems less likely, RG basically fake claimed blue and alluded that he was going to hit sandro night 1. From the POV of the SK, this would be a good thing. I just don't see why the SK would have a reason to hit RG, now that we know for sure Sandro wasn't the SK. So, more than likely if Sandro's claim is fake there is no SK.
I happen to have my doubts that mafia would risk fake claiming a hit, but Sandro's play this game has been so weird I suppose it's a distinct possibility. In this case that it was fake, there's really not much that tells us. If we can later prove somehow that the hit was fake then FOS should probably go on the people that were pushing really hard to find the SK, probably scum who were working with Sandro to drum up some fake SK lynches. The problem is, if there is a Mafia vig or if the SK decides to not kill night 2, this could be almost difficult to prove.
So if a town Vig took a shot on Sandro, that could prove there is no SK. I highly doubt SK would choose not to kill night 1 given how easily it could be passed off as a vig hit and the difficulty the SK faces in winning this game. So if there's a vig who did take a shot on Sandro Night 1 and we see two kills tonight, role claim!!! as that would prove there is a Mafia vig and stop us from wasting time looking for an SK.
Other than that, I think it's wise to proceed as if Sandro's claim was real. If it was, this could potentially lead us to the SK given what I said above. I'm not suggesting we lynch anyone based on Sandro's info (that would be stupid), but it could lead us in the right direction. If he was lying, then we go in the wrong direction for a bit. But if he was telling the truth we could use it to identify the SK.
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Thanks for responding Paper. I'll try to clarify myself in response to your questions/statements.
"Usual reasoning". Can you be more clear on what you think this is?
Are you trying to imply that my read came solely from the Palmar/Deconduo exchange?
By usual reasoning, I am referring to previous games where you've actually provided good reasons for going after someone. Whether you're right or wrong makes no difference, it is in town's best interest for people to back up their votes with good reasoning so that we can pull the bullshit away from the truth. If you're not going to back up your vote with good, logical reasoning, or at least a decent attempt at it, then I can only assume that you don't have a good reason and therefore are scum.
I am not implying, I am inferring. I am inferring that because of what I just wrote: You hadn't provided good reasons for your vote. If you still think your reasons for voting Deconduo the first time, and then reaffirming your vote were good, then we will have to agree to disagree.
You are using the same meta on me in two different ways. You are saying that my posting makes me town, because that is how I played in werewolves mafia. Then you say that my posting makes me scum, because it differs from my posting in my newbie mafia game. I have been town in every mafia game I have played on teamliquid so far.
I did not think werewolves was a good game to study because it utilized IRC a lot. Much of the discussion for that game appeared to have taken place outside of the forum.
Also, I do not say anywhere that this post makes you town, nor do I compare it to werewolves mafia. You are putting words in my mouth in an attempt to either discredit me or make yourself look better. Focus on what I actually say.
So how do we know anyone is anything when we are town? Certain towntells are obvious and Deconduo is either missing them or over looking them. Deconduo's response is loaded, because Deconduo is saying that the only way I can know his reads are bad is if I am scum. I could use this argument against you right now, saying that you read is horrible, because you think I am scum, when I am town. Just because his reads were on other people, doesn't mean I can't deem them bad. I can't know with 100% certainty if they are wrong or not, but mafia is a game of induction and deduction.
We know from logic and reasoning as you say at the end of this paragraph. Your argument lacked both and if you were to use the same argument against me, it would again lack both.
To clarify, this is good logic:
Deconduo thinks Probulous and Misder are scum
Probulous and Misder are both town (assuming Prob at this point)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Therefore, Deconduo's reasoning for thinking Probulous and Misder are scum is bad
This is not good logic:
Deconduo's reasoning for thinking Probulous and Misder are scum is bad
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Therefore, Deconduo is scum
You mentioned deduction. Show me how you made this argument. I've taken logic and philosophy courses, I'll be happy to admit that I'm wrong when you show me what I'm missing.
Quality > quantity. Bluelightz says a lot of things, but there is really no substance behind anything he says.
I agree, Bluelightz is lacking in substance. Hard to argue against that. What I'm focusing on though is that your posts have lacked substance while trying to appear to have substance.
Not sure, what you are trying to get at here. You are saying that my voting of Decon is unjustified. Then Decon foses me with very little reasoning and that isn't OMGUS? Double standard.
No comment here. I agree, Decon FoSing you was silly.
Deconduo's read coupled with his reaction to my fos is what made me think he is scum
LOL. Ok let me explain something to you here. rg was soft claiming Vig pretty hard. Why would someone do this? THEY WANT TO GET SHOT. Ok, so now that we all understand that, we have to try and decipher if the claim seems legit or not. rg was being pretty obvious and blunt about it. My assumption was that he was either a Vet or vanilla townie trying to take one for the team. How can I help rg get shot then? Try and make people believe that I think he is a real vig. (hint hint I really didn't think this) Thus, rg's plan worked out perfectly. I may have even helped.
I don't think he was soft claiming. I think he was slapping us in the face with the fact that he had killing power. Why would he do this if he was actually a vig? I don't think anyone would think he's actually a vig at that point. But you know who would want to make sure? Mafia.
Misder was town. People voting him are stupid or mafia/sk
Misder was contributing nothing and could easily have garnered 3 out of 13 votes without any of them being Mafia. Why would you discount the possibility that there were no mafia on him?
I was always leaning towards Decon being scum. I don't understand your implication.
My implication was this: First you are certain Decon is scum. Now you are only leaning towards him being scum. If this is false, please correct me.
Yeah definite fluff. Trying to get someone to be more active, help scumhunt and all that jazz. /sarcasm
I don't think you can count calling out inactive people as a contribution either way.
Honestly this analysis on AKCT holds the same weight as people's read on Sandroba. Sandroba says he is too busy to post. AKCT says he is too drunk to post or post anything coherent. Maybe scum is playing the afk/lurk/not care game.
This was not an analysis. This was stating the obvious on someone you think is town. This was fluff.
Me:
E)Now this is very interesting. Agrees that Sandroba is the easy lynch. Agrees that he's been posting nothing. Disagrees with Sandroba's read (sounds familiar to the Decon case). Then spends 4 sentences convincing himself that Sandroba is a bored vanilla townie? Not looking so good given Sandroba flipped scum.
You:
I am not infallible. Honestly though I would be raging pretty hard if I were mafia this game, because Sandroba played horribly.
I would like to hear more about why you still thought Decon was a better vote than Sandroba day 1. Surely you thought that Misder was town based on Deconduo's horrible read. That gave you the chance at the end of Day 1 of lynching Sandroba instead. My problem here is that if Sandroba has bad reads and is posting nothing, you assume he's a bored townie. If Decon has bad reads and is posting nothing, you assume he's scum. I can't make a good argument against you for why you left your vote on Deconduo instead of Sandroba without making any assumptions; but it would certainly help your case if you could explain it to me (preferably without taking it personally, but that's up to you).
The bandwagon on Sandroba went up very quickly and Sandroba was very scummy, that it was almost too easy. Like seriously I called it the night before how easy it would be to lynch Sandroba. So, I second guess myself and look bad. Not voting with the majoity doesn't make me scum. If I were scum, I would have just bussed Sandroba to make myself look town. See the contrast here? Scum obviously bussed Sandroba.
Or maybe you would switch your vote so that later you can say that if you were scum, you would have just bussed Sandroba to make yourself look town. I don't know that I can argue with you here, scum could do either, always looking to get one step ahead of town in situations like this.
Look at my last game in werewolves mafia. I have played the same. You are basing your meta off my game in newbie mafia, I don't play like that anymore with big long analytic posts, because they are unnecessary and anyone can contort peoples words to whatever they like. Just as you have done above.
I'll reiterate that much of werewolves appeared to be played in IRC. Also, I'll give you that you don't make big long analytic posts anymore. That's fine. But for the sake of the town, please don't stop giving good, logical reasoning for your votes! If you really are town, then you've certainly wasted a lot of my time by acting scummy.
What happened to this Paperscraps?
On January 27 2012 18:38 Paperscraps wrote:
I just want to clarify that I am not taking the lynch lightly. Rash decisions and shotgun voting are a bad idea. Honestly we don't have much to go on yet for the D1 lynch. Why am I the one stalling when the majority of the town hasn't voted yet either? By your logic they should all be scum as well for "stalling".
I am not waiting to vote. My mind is still changing. Just because I don't vote and unvote every other post doesn't make timid.
I will vote when I am ready to vote, not before.
Or this one?
On January 27 2012 19:27 Paperscraps wrote:
I meant this
*Being 100% sure of anything is impossible for a townie during N1.
Or this one?
On January 29 2012 04:42 Paperscraps wrote:##Unvote: Palmar##Vote: PrplhzTwo reasons for my change here. 1. My read on Palmar is neutral, by voting him up earlier I was hoping to get him to be more constructive and reasonable. This doesn't look likely now. I don't know all the meta everyone else knows about Palmar, but I think this can be a good thing. I can be more objective about my reads on him in the future. 2. Prplhz voted up wherebugsgo and then just left. No reason at all. Show nested quote +On January 28 2012 01:06 prplhz wrote:
I need to go shopping now but I'll write something when I get back.
##Vote: wherebugsgo If you say you are going to do something, then follow through. Accountability!
Just because you don't make big long analytic posts anymore doesn't mean you're throwing logic and reasoning completely out the window. Only scum would do that because they really have no logic or reasoning to back their suspicions.
Let me bring up some points to you.
1. I have rolled town every game in tl mafia, thus you have no scum play to read.
2. You are using proof by contradiction off my town meta to call me scum. My town play has been evolving since newbie mafia, so this isn't valid.
3. I have played pretty similar to my last game in werewolves mafia, where my reads were decent when it came to finding scum. If you want to use meta to read me then use that.
If this is your town play "evolving" then you should really reconsider what your end goal is.
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On March 07 2012 04:04 Snarfs wrote:
By usual reasoning, I am referring to previous games where you've actually provided good reasons for going after someone. Whether you're right or wrong makes no difference, it is in town's best interest for people to back up their votes with good reasoning so that we can pull the bullshit away from the truth. If you're not going to back up your vote with good, logical reasoning, or at least a decent attempt at it, then I can only assume that you don't have a good reason and therefore are scum.
This is your opinion. I believe my reasons are good/logical. You disagree, end of story.
I am not implying, I am inferring. I am inferring that because of what I just wrote: You hadn't provided good reasons for your vote. If you still think your reasons for voting Deconduo the first time, and then reaffirming your vote were good, then we will have to agree to disagree.
I have restated my reasons for Deconduo being scum.
I did not think werewolves was a good game to study because it utilized IRC a lot. Much of the discussion for that game appeared to have taken place outside of the forum.
Also, I do not say anywhere that this post makes you town, nor do I compare it to werewolves mafia. You are putting words in my mouth in an attempt to either discredit me or make yourself look better. Focus on what I actually say.
You said that I was playing towards my town meta with the way I was posting. I backed up my votes with reasoning, so I don't see what the problem is? You speculate I was trying to hop on a wagon, but have no way of proving this. The post was hypocritical and ironic, because you were doing the same thing to me. You voted me up saying my reasons for Deconduo being scum were bad, implying I read him wrong.
Also you can't discount werewolves, because of IRC. If you are going to use meta to read me, you have to use it all.
Here are the IRC logs for you. http://www.palmar.org/mafia/ You can filter me by hitting search at the bottom.
I just searched my name "Paperscraps" (case sensitive). It isn't that much to read at all. I think I contributed as much in that thread as I did in IRC. I talked with Palmar and Bluelightz most in PMs. You can ask them if there is any relevant meta to be gained from that.
We know from logic and reasoning as you say at the end of this paragraph. Your argument lacked both and if you were to use the same argument against me, it would again lack both.
To clarify, this is good logic:
Deconduo thinks Probulous and Misder are scum
Probulous and Misder are both town (assuming Prob at this point)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Therefore, Deconduo's reasoning for thinking Probulous and Misder are scum is bad
This is not good logic:
Deconduo's reasoning for thinking Probulous and Misder are scum is bad
-----------------------------------------------------
Therefore, Deconduo is scum
You mentioned deduction. Show me how you made this argument. I've taken logic and philosophy courses, I'll be happy to admit that I'm wrong when you show me what I'm missing.
Day 1 is mostly inductive reasoning. You can't be 100% sure of anything. I used inductive logic based on Deconduo's reads and reactions to read him as scum. I used my reads on others as well to deduce that Deconduo seemed the most scummy out of everyone.
I don't think he was soft claiming. I think he was slapping us in the face with the fact that he had killing power. Why would he do this if he was actually a vig? I don't think anyone would think he's actually a vig at that point. But you know who would want to make sure? Mafia.
I disagree here. When you soft claim a power role like rg did, the first thing that comes to mind is that he is fake. Now you can either stop there or wonder if rg knows that is what others will think of him. If rg knows that claiming in this way will make others think he is fake, then wouldn't be smart, albeit risky, to claim this way as an actual power role? Now mafia has to consider if rg is fake claiming or fake fake claiming or fake fake fake claiming, etc...(ad infinitum) We call this a regress argument. It was a gamble, but I asked him that question because I thought he was fake and wanted others to think he was real.
Misder was contributing nothing and could easily have garnered 3 out of 13 votes without any of them being Mafia. Why would you discount the possibility that there were no mafia on him?
Misder seemed town to me. You are right, no mafia could have voted him, but I think that unlikely.
My implication was this: First you are certain Decon is scum. Now you are only leaning towards him being scum. If this is false, please correct me.
I guess my word choice wasn't the best here. I have always been leaning as Decon being scum. I am not 100% certain. When trying to persuade others though, you want to sound sure of yourself and not wishywashy. Hence, my word choice.
I don't think you can count calling out inactive people as a contribution either way.
This is your opinion/view.
I would like to hear more about why you still thought Decon was a better vote than Sandroba day 1. Surely you thought that Misder was town based on Deconduo's horrible read. That gave you the chance at the end of Day 1 of lynching Sandroba instead. My problem here is that if Sandroba has bad reads and is posting nothing, you assume he's a bored townie. If Decon has bad reads and is posting nothing, you assume he's scum. I can't make a good argument against you for why you left your vote on Deconduo instead of Sandroba without making any assumptions; but it would certainly help your case if you could explain it to me (preferably without taking it personally, but that's up to you).
Sandroba seemed more town to me day 1 when he switched his vote from Pandain to TheToast. Deconduo stayed with the vote on Misder and reacted poorly to my FoS. I wasn't around duing the last hours before the day ended to change my vbote to save Misder. I have posted my reasons for my FoS on Deconduo.
Or maybe you would switch your vote so that later you can say that if you were scum, you would have just bussed Sandroba to make yourself look town. I don't know that I can argue with you here, scum could do either, always looking to get one step ahead of town in situations like this.
Mafia bussing makes much more sense, then going against the majority and standing out. Going against the majority casts suspicion on me and mafia doesn't like to be in the spot light like that. I agree this point can't really be argued though. That is just my take on it.
I'll reiterate that much of werewolves appeared to be played in IRC. Also, I'll give you that you don't make big long analytic posts anymore. That's fine. But for the sake of the town, please don't stop giving good, logical reasoning for your votes! If you really are town, then you've certainly wasted a lot of my time by acting scummy.
I haven't been scummy at all. No one has really presented a case on my except for you. I will not be lynched tomorrow. Thus I am doing my job as town. The best scum hunters usually seem scummy themselves.
What happened to this Paperscraps? Show nested quote +On January 27 2012 18:38 Paperscraps wrote:
I just want to clarify that I am not taking the lynch lightly. Rash decisions and shotgun voting are a bad idea. Honestly we don't have much to go on yet for the D1 lynch. Why am I the one stalling when the majority of the town hasn't voted yet either? By your logic they should all be scum as well for "stalling".
I am not waiting to vote. My mind is still changing. Just because I don't vote and unvote every other post doesn't make timid.
I will vote when I am ready to vote, not before. Or this one? Show nested quote +On January 27 2012 19:27 Paperscraps wrote:
I meant this
*Being 100% sure of anything is impossible for a townie during N1. Or this one? Show nested quote +On January 29 2012 04:42 Paperscraps wrote:##Unvote: Palmar##Vote: PrplhzTwo reasons for my change here. 1. My read on Palmar is neutral, by voting him up earlier I was hoping to get him to be more constructive and reasonable. This doesn't look likely now. I don't know all the meta everyone else knows about Palmar, but I think this can be a good thing. I can be more objective about my reads on him in the future. 2. Prplhz voted up wherebugsgo and then just left. No reason at all. On January 28 2012 01:06 prplhz wrote:
I need to go shopping now but I'll write something when I get back.
##Vote: wherebugsgo If you say you are going to do something, then follow through. Accountability!
He is still here. You are just using certain parts of meta on me to further your skewed view.
Just because you don't make big long analytic posts anymore doesn't mean you're throwing logic and reasoning completely out the window. Only scum would do that because they really have no logic or reasoning to back their suspicions.
I posted valid reasons for my FoS on Deconduo.
If this is your town play "evolving" then you should really reconsider what your end goal is.
My end goal is to find scum and lynch them.
TLDR: One townie calls another townie scum. They argue back and forth and nothing is gained.
This is the main reason I don't post big huge analytic posts. I did that in my first game against CatsNHats, who I thought was scum and made pretty convincing cases against him. CatsNHats was actually town and thus I was blind to the real mafia,Cephiro, who I thought was town. Basically CatsNHats and I tunneled each other and argued constantly losing the game for town. This is what is happening here. Mafia is sitting back, watching two townies rip each other apart. But wait there is a difference this time! I think Snarfs is town and won't tunnel him back, so we have a chance!
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On March 06 2012 20:58 Paperscraps wrote:
1. Decon's read on Misder was wrong. Probulous he called you scum as well. Was he wrong in that?
2. Decon says making lists are pointless, claiming they are filler. I disagree
3. Decon's reaction to me calling him scum was bad. He over reacted. I find this scummy.
4. Decon's reaction to Misder flipping scum was bad. He wasn't remorseful about it.
5. Decon also rages at Sandroba for being useless this game, saying a vig should shoot Sandroba. There is merit here for both town and mafia play.
6. Decon has been coasting the past two days. Posting filler, no scum hunting, not very town.
7. Decon votes up Sandroba, calling him "almost certainly SK". There is merit here for both town and mafia play once again.
I don't think you thought your case through very well. You have seven points all of which could come from a town or mafia agenda. What is with the bolded bit?
As for this
On March 06 2012 21:04 Paperscraps wrote:
Also on side note: Since Sandroba flipped mafia. What does everyone think of the hit claim?
1. The hit claim was fake.
2. The hit was real and mafia/town medic saved Sandroba?
I've explained my reasoning why I think the shot was real. Why would a mafia sandroba claim veteran with such a weak claim? If he wanted to get credit for it he would have celebrated the shot, make it clear to everyone he was targeted. Instead he responds to something else and then casually mentions the fact. It makes sense that he was shot given his reaction to it. This means scum have a medic and we have a SK. Vig would have claimed by now.
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On March 06 2012 15:55 Adam4167 wrote:
I don't push cases at night time, unless its so close to the deadline that mafia cant shoot me for it.
On March 06 2012 21:21 Adam4167 wrote:
There's really no way to know which it is until morning. Even then, there's situations where it could be ambiguous.
Why you such a downer this game Adam? I don't think I have ever seen someone get shot for posting at night. All you are doing is refusing to contribute behind a weak excuse. The sandoba shot is the one thing we have right now that can help provide some useful information. Of course the conclusions have to be tentative but we can still work it out based on his posting. I think my logic is clear and fairly robust. Besides if there was one thing you could comment on that would surely not get you shot it would be the dead guy. You're avoiding posting, why?
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On March 07 2012 06:46 Probulous wrote:As for this Show nested quote +On March 06 2012 21:04 Paperscraps wrote:
Also on side note: Since Sandroba flipped mafia. What does everyone think of the hit claim?
1. The hit claim was fake.
2. The hit was real and mafia/town medic saved Sandroba? I've explained my reasoning why I think the shot was real. Why would a mafia sandroba claim veteran with such a weak claim? If he wanted to get credit for it he would have celebrated the shot, make it clear to everyone he was targeted. Instead he responds to something else and then casually mentions the fact. It makes sense that he was shot given his reaction to it. This means scum have a medic and we have a SK. Vig would have claimed by now.
Agreed about the vig.
The problem that we have is whatever happens Night 2 doesn't prove anything. Two kills could mean Mafia have a vig, only one kill could mean SK decided not to submit their night action. Second one seems unlikely, but it could potentially throw everyone off. If they did this we wouldn't know about the SK until Night 4, possibly Night 5 if they did a successful fake town vig claim. So figuring out the validity of Sandro's claim is pretty important. Again, if there's a vig that hit sandro day 1 you need to role claim.
While I agree with you, thing is Sandro's play was really weird this game. I don't know that we can assume anything, but as I said before, I think we should proceed under the assumption that Sandro's claim is true. If it's true, we get a good lead, if not then nothing happens (as long as we are smart and don't lynch anyone based only on his claim).
If Sandro's claim is true, and there is an SK; top people to question/track/watch should be Paper, and Jackal.
Jackal and Paper borth for their defense of sandro; if they thought he was a vet (since their shot didn't kill him) they may have seen this as an opportunity to get on the opposite side of a town lynch and make themselves look townish.
Pandain is the other person I have in mind for his vote reversal thing on Day 2, but as I think about it the whole fake blue claim thing doesn't seem like something the SK would do. If he did try to shoot Sandro night 1 and was unsuccessful, it doesn't stand to reason that he would need to divert attention from himself--he would be suspect #12 or #13 in that particular investigation. It does make sense for scum to do that to try to start a bandwagon or to take that risk to be confirmed town. But as for SK, I guess it doesn't make sense when he wouldn't be remotely suspected for the action.
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On March 06 2012 19:01 Bluelightz wrote:
Nice flip ^^! Was at school for most of the day so couldnt post much. We should take a look at the people who wanted to derail the lynch.
In my ideal world there are two possible things happening to you- You actually provide this analysis and it is useful
- You make a handsome throw rug
I'm clearing the floor to make room cause I think hell will freeze before I get useful information from you.
I love how you completely ignore this post
On March 06 2012 12:34 Probulous wrote:Final Scummy VotesSandroba - 83) bluelightz BluelightzShow nested quote +On March 06 2012 00:12 Bluelightz wrote:
Alright, I'm voting sandroba, I believe his scum because he is useless and has not provided good content, his hit claim is interesting though.
##Vote: sandroba He needs to be splattered across the pavement, preferably across many pavements.
You still haven't explained responded to my original case/s (1, 2) You are lurking and need to die.
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On March 07 2012 06:45 Paperscraps wrote:
TLDR: One townie calls another townie scum. They argue back and forth and nothing is gained.
This is the main reason I don't post big huge analytic posts. I did that in my first game against CatsNHats, who I thought was scum and made pretty convincing cases against him. CatsNHats was actually town and thus I was blind to the real mafia,Cephiro, who I thought was town. Basically CatsNHats and I tunneled each other and argued constantly losing the game for town. This is what is happening here. Mafia is sitting back, watching two townies rip each other apart. But wait there is a difference this time! I think Snarfs is town and won't tunnel him back, so we have a chance!
Meh, I don't think anything was lost here. I had fun typing it up if nothing else.
So which of these is the most scummy: Decon, Adam, Pandain, other?
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EBWOP: explained
I think I need a coffee. BRB
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On March 07 2012 06:46 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2012 20:58 Paperscraps wrote:
1. Decon's read on Misder was wrong. Probulous he called you scum as well. Was he wrong in that?
2. Decon says making lists are pointless, claiming they are filler. I disagree
3. Decon's reaction to me calling him scum was bad. He over reacted. I find this scummy.
4. Decon's reaction to Misder flipping scum was bad. He wasn't remorseful about it.
5. Decon also rages at Sandroba for being useless this game, saying a vig should shoot Sandroba. There is merit here for both town and mafia play.
6. Decon has been coasting the past two days. Posting filler, no scum hunting, not very town.
7. Decon votes up Sandroba, calling him "almost certainly SK". There is merit here for both town and mafia play once again. I don't think you thought your case through very well. You have seven points all of which could come from a town or mafia agenda. What is with the bolded bit?
I see now that some of points have an ambiguity to them. So I am reevaluating my FoS on Deconduo.
The bolded part is a question to you? Was Decon wrong in calling you scum?
On March 07 2012 06:46 Probulous wrote:As for this Show nested quote +On March 06 2012 21:04 Paperscraps wrote:
Also on side note: Since Sandroba flipped mafia. What does everyone think of the hit claim?
1. The hit claim was fake.
2. The hit was real and mafia/town medic saved Sandroba? I've explained my reasoning why I think the shot was real. Why would a mafia sandroba claim veteran with such a weak claim? If he wanted to get credit for it he would have celebrated the shot, make it clear to everyone he was targeted. Instead he responds to something else and then casually mentions the fact. It makes sense that he was shot given his reaction to it. This means scum have a medic and we have a SK. Vig would have claimed by now.
I agree.
On March 07 2012 07:18 Snarfs wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2012 06:45 Paperscraps wrote:
TLDR: One townie calls another townie scum. They argue back and forth and nothing is gained.
This is the main reason I don't post big huge analytic posts. I did that in my first game against CatsNHats, who I thought was scum and made pretty convincing cases against him. CatsNHats was actually town and thus I was blind to the real mafia,Cephiro, who I thought was town. Basically CatsNHats and I tunneled each other and argued constantly losing the game for town. This is what is happening here. Mafia is sitting back, watching two townies rip each other apart. But wait there is a difference this time! I think Snarfs is town and won't tunnel him back, so we have a chance! Meh, I don't think anything was lost here. I had fun typing it up if nothing else. So which of these is the most scummy: Decon, Adam, Pandain, other?
My top scum reads are TheToast, Jackal and Deconduo.
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EPT
