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Gumshoe: Actually I very much appreciate you looking outside the common suspects for scum. Even if you're wrong, the reactions are always interesting. Don't bother posting town reads unless someone needs defending.
Your theory on Janaan is probably wrong though. Not only would it be terrible scum play to buddy up to your scumbuddy, but according to Qatol in the NMM3 post-game, buddying up to veterans is a common town-tell. Newbie town players look to veterans for support, newbie scum players look to their ScumQT.
Despite this, buddying up to townies as scum can be an extremely effective tactic as long as the town player isn't likely to get lynched otherwise. Unless you think DYH is town and the attacks on him are town-driven, Janaan as scum doesn't make much sense there either.
A lot of players don't like getting buddied because of this scum tactic. Check out this post from ET:
On February 18 2012 09:44 EchelonTee wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 09:42 MannerKiss wrote:
Sorry i've been absent, work related stuff. Trying to catch up on the thread.
Doyouhas pretty strong townie feeling to me.
gumshoe - trying my best to overcome some scummy feeling from the earliest post, but it seems to have cleared up a little since the poll.
Dimmuklok giving me the strongest scum vibe of all so far, (and not just because he's aggressive toward me).
ET - also giving off a townie feeling
i'll catch up on everyone else when i get home this evening don't buddy to me, I don't like that. Talk about my points, if you agree with me.
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+ Show Spoiler +You then say that lynching a bad towny(yourself that is) is wrong.
No dude,it's not wrong, and in your case, it's actually recommended.
So do you still propose lynching me even if I'm town?
Also
+ Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 15:30 gumshoe wrote:
One of my biggest concerns going into the vote was that it felt like the majority of us were set on the players who had made common individual mistakes. It feels like were not really entertaining the notion that the mafia might actually be playing well because were so set on the idea that they are obvius and awful.
On February 19 2012 15:30 gumshoe wrote:
Theres a chance(I wont say a good one because I got fried for that last time) that one of these intelligent players is mafia
On February 19 2012 15:30 gumshoe wrote:
Because this is my nightmare scenario, I think until we lynch a mafia we need to actively consider the worst case scenario ,the possibility that the mafia has the mental upper hand, that they are intelligent and have come up with plans to adapt if a teammate catches fire.
Each and every one of these statements is designed to throw us into chaos chasing our tails.
It's the pinnacle of a fluff scum post.
We all need to start considering an effective mafia as well as an incompetent one for our next vote, I'm sorry if thats painful for you to hear steve.
our first four candidates were all very blatant seeming mafia, the list seemed to go on the basis that the mafia was weak and would slip up early in the game. Note we only had one lurker on that list. My accusation of DHY was weak, but I wanted to take my own advice and not just encourage other people to accuse good players, rather I wanted try to find a scenario where mafia might have that upper edge, (but I dont think I did the greatest job at it, still I stand by DO's support of me being a risk free move if hes mafia) I propose that you at least try and do the same, unless you have other pressing matters, which... you clearly dont.
+ Show Spoiler +Congratulations gumshoe, I just wasted 1 more hour.
That was over 7 hours ago, this was the span of time was when you were supposed to be thriving, providing quality analysis. Instead you just banged you head against the wall that is me for an hour, ignored the fight between sloosh and DYH, and then neglected to provide any insight regarding the mislynch, as if your opinion on it is just "woops!"
I understand your suspicious of me, to be honest i don't mind if your vote stays on me.
If town wants to lynch me because I'm a bad townie the time is now, because if we mislynch one more time we wont have that kind of wiggle room, but you've already made your case against me clear, its there for anyone who wants to read it.
So please something else, suggest a new plan, or look back at the voting patterns just before our mislynch.
Or do I need to attack you again just to get you to say something?
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Thoughts on EchelonTee
I still don't buy the Midnight argument. There is sorta a WIFOM argument to his post's existence. Half the town had told him if he didn't post something against Midnight, we were lynching him. So, he posted something against Midnight. He'd post that regardless of whether he was town or scum.
On February 19 2012 07:24 EchelonTee wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 06:31 MidnightGladius wrote:On February 18 2012 06:14 gumshoe wrote:On February 18 2012 05:53 DoYouHas wrote:On February 18 2012 05:44 gumshoe wrote:
Definitley need to take the risk of a lurker lynch, there are three lurkers currently in the game, manner zell and one more I forget, theres a 75 percent chance one of them is mafia. A chance I think we need to take cause were one townie short.
Could you explain this further? I don't follow the 75% chance. In a sample group of 4 random players in a 16 player game with 4 mafia its almost a 100 percent chance that one of the 4 in the random group is mafia, this is not a random group though, none of these 3 specific lurkers have contributed much making them suspeicius which increases the odds of them bieng mafia. Overall if we pick a lynch from of the three random lurkers there is statistically speaking a good chance that one of them will be mafia, because a) one in four players is probably mafia and b) there behaviour is suspicious. I only see three obvious lurkers therefore the odds are not 100 percent of one of them being mafia. There is a 60 percent chance rather(15 divided by 5 = 3 three is 20 percent of 15. So the odds of three random players being lurkers is twenty percent, but the odds of one of them being mafia is 60 percent exactly. Christ in buckets, it's FakePromise all over again :S Gumshoe's statistical analysis is misleading and flawed. I'd rather not clutter up this topic with the details, but in non-technical terms, he's making WIFOM assumptions in setting up the problem, not counting the distribution of outcomes properly, and I don't even know how what he means by: [redacted] At this point I'm going to have to assume malicious intent. Several of us have warned him about this, and he's continuing to try and derail the discussion. He's been spamming even more than before, using really bizarre logic to defend himself, and he still has yet to provide much in the way of content. In a way, this is worse than lurking, and it's way beyond what I would expect an innocent newbie to do :/ ##Unvote: MannerKiss##Vote: Gumshoe 3..........this has to be a scum slip. FakePromise was a GREEN, TOWNIE last game. If you see another fakepromise, why are you voting him??? How is he being malicious, hes just making bad statistical analysis!! at this point you are pushing a terrible lynch.
So he thinks Midnight voting Gumshoe is a terrible lynch push and comparing Gumshoe to FakePromise is a scum slip.
On February 19 2012 09:27 EchelonTee wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 08:19 gumshoe wrote:
I have an aching feeling that Ech will flip green if we kill him ) : that opening move of his was almost as bad as mine and hes supposed to be good, I cant imagine him being coached by other mafia through all this. I hate it but its gonna have to be a no lynch unless gladeus says he eats babies or something. Maybe we can vote for one of the lurkers? Manner/michael? Zell?
1. i'm not good. why suggest this so openly. this is my 4th game playing. 2. as mattchew said, this could be a scumslip; he knows I would flip green and is planting this. After my aggressive opening towards gumshoe I dont know why he would support me as such. Thoughts?
Oh so pushing Gumshoe back into the center of attention. Ech thinks Gumshoe could be scum now. So that means Midnight's push to lynch him wasn't terrible. So your justification for going after Midnight has gone away right? Nope.
On February 19 2012 09:38 EchelonTee wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 09:33 slOosh wrote:
So ... the lynch is over and you two (EchelonTee & MidnightGladius) just drop the cases on each other?
What do you guys think of each other? I still think he's scum. Going after Mattchew, Mannerkiss's replacement is consistent, so I can't fault him for that, but I can't agree with him wanting to vote him for 1. voting himself, aka OMGUS, and 2. being AWOL from thread with excuse. he could be using his phone you know. Or maybe he hasn't quite left yet. Point is, mattchew isn't being constructive but he not an autovote. especially because he's only posted a bit. However, I think examining the other happenings in the thread is a good idea. I could endlessly tunnel Midnight, but I need to get a good look at the bigger picture. Besides, you really think its strange that I'm addressing the lynch that just happened, over midnight? I was literally the last voter on him, I should be scrutinized for doing so.
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My next case will be on Alderan:
Alderan's behavior strikes me as strange for a few broad reasons, and there are some details that also don't fit. He is the first to nominate DimmuKlok as our lurker candidate of choice, but the fact that he actually went ahead and made a "case" - a point-by-point analysis of only three posts - is completely superfluous. PBPA is never helpful, as Alderan should know, considering that he's had two games of playing experience and has read through several others.
He soft-defends gumshoe, claiming that his play is too elaborate to be scum, and that the town's attention on him is "unnecessary." In addition, he says to look at those pressuring gumshoe (Steve and I), but he never follows through on that.
Then, after the lynch, he says that he's going to be doing vote analysis, which sounds like a great idea, but then that also never materializes. He has since provided a null read on DYH and nothing else.
In its totality, Alderan's posts are lacking in what I consider to be actual contributions to the town, and the way he pushed DimmuKlok seemed much too emphatic compared to the rest of his reads he's made so far. He hasn't followed up on several of his claims, and has instead provided several bits of fluff, like "stay active when accused."
Now would be a good time to take your own advice.
My other headaches remain:
1) gumshoe: He continues not to take advice, despite getting even more of it recently, writing huge walls of text full of WIFOM and jumping to more conclusions than I can count. My doubts really hinge on whether I think the mafia team would dare let one of their members play so carelessly, but the fact is that they very well could, so I don't think that that's a valid line of defense. My intuition tells me that he's town, but the actual evidence for his innocence just isn't there.
2) Mattchew: I acknowledge that players getting replaced in at this time of the game have a really high chance of being innocent, but two things stick out to me. One, that heuristic applies to players modkilled for inactivity, and MannerKiss was not modkilled, only replaced. Secondly, Mattchew's play since joining the game has not been reassuring at all. When Adam4167 replaced into NMM3, he had the advantage of being able to look at everything with a fresh set of eyes, not having to deal with tunneling, and as a result, he made some great contributions to town play. Mattchew, on the other hand, has barely improved on MannerKiss' original posting. I'm willing to hear him out, but he has a lot to answer for.
EchelonTee, I just reread your filter, and I really think that I'm running the risk of tunneling you :/. I'm going to look at some other players now, but I will come back later, with hopefully a fresh perspective on things.
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Ya gumshoe I know, my plan on checking someone else didn't materialize cause you added fuel to the fire and I didn't have the time to read all day today.
Gonna sleep now, god(and gum) willing I'll do some more constructive play tomorrow.
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On February 20 2012 06:17 Steveling wrote:
Ya gumshoe I know, my plan on checking someone else didn't materialize cause you added fuel to the fire and I didn't have the time to read all day today.
Gonna sleep now, god(and gum) willing I'll do some more constructive play tomorrow.
Please before you go to be can I get your opinion on DYH?
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On February 20 2012 05:29 TKHawkins wrote:Thoughts on EchelonTee So he thinks Midnight voting Gumshoe is a terrible lynch push and comparing Gumshoe to FakePromise is a scum slip. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 09:27 EchelonTee wrote:On February 19 2012 08:19 gumshoe wrote:
I have an aching feeling that Ech will flip green if we kill him ) : that opening move of his was almost as bad as mine and hes supposed to be good, I cant imagine him being coached by other mafia through all this. I hate it but its gonna have to be a no lynch unless gladeus says he eats babies or something. Maybe we can vote for one of the lurkers? Manner/michael? Zell?
1. i'm not good. why suggest this so openly. this is my 4th game playing. 2. as mattchew said, this could be a scumslip; he knows I would flip green and is planting this. After my aggressive opening towards gumshoe I dont know why he would support me as such. Thoughts? Oh so pushing Gumshoe back into the center of attention. Ech thinks Gumshoe could be scum now. So that means Midnight's push to lynch him wasn't terrible. So your justification for going after Midnight has gone away right? Nope. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 09:38 EchelonTee wrote:On February 19 2012 09:33 slOosh wrote:
So ... the lynch is over and you two (EchelonTee & MidnightGladius) just drop the cases on each other?
What do you guys think of each other? I still think he's scum. Going after Mattchew, Mannerkiss's replacement is consistent, so I can't fault him for that, but I can't agree with him wanting to vote him for 1. voting himself, aka OMGUS, and 2. being AWOL from thread with excuse. he could be using his phone you know. Or maybe he hasn't quite left yet. Point is, mattchew isn't being constructive but he not an autovote. especially because he's only posted a bit. However, I think examining the other happenings in the thread is a good idea. I could endlessly tunnel Midnight, but I need to get a good look at the bigger picture. Besides, you really think its strange that I'm addressing the lynch that just happened, over midnight? I was literally the last voter on him, I should be scrutinized for doing so.
My questioning of gumshoe's post does not = "I think he could be scum now"; it means I am scrutinizing gumshoe's post. Though I believe gumshoe is more likely to be town, I don't blindly presume so; anyone could be town/mafia, so when someone posts something I find strange, I will point it out.
I fully think midnight's push to lynch him is terrible.
I will not be back before the deadline, here are my thoughts on the thread:
I believe Janaan is town; his response to pressure sounds very genuine, and his uncertainty regarding the vote yesterday did not seem malicious to me. If he was Mafia, he would know who is actually town, and could put his vote down on someone and put some hashed out lines on said person to advance a mislynch. Remember; though no lynches are good for mafia, mislynches are even better, and I feel that if Janaan was duplicitious, he could've done something more dastardly.
My scum list atm is (in order of certainty top to bottom):
MidnightGladius - I've said so why at various points; he wasn't really under heavy pressure last game so I can't speak to meta, but I feel that his responses to my pressure don't come from a town perspective.
TKHawkins - View on Midnight is just "I can't get a read on him", and his case on me, when he voted me, was by far the worst.
DoYouHas - From what I can tell, he hasn't tried to put himself out there in the thread, like he did in Newbie III. He doesn't seem willing to push anyone too hard, though he could have if he wanted to. His only case is on sloosh, and I don't find his case very good.
People to look at.
Steveling - This is more of a gut thing; if I survive I'll look into it more. His early game was kind of weird, but his large posts on gumshoe actually are not bad.
Gumshoe - I've said a few times that I think he is town, due to his obvious noobiness. His posting though, is quite crazy. If he flipped scum I would not be surprised.
Am I 100% sure? No. But if I die, these are the people I would look at. Of course, don't use dead people's words as evidence of people's guilt, just as a guide to look into things further.
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On February 20 2012 06:33 gumshoe wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2012 06:17 Steveling wrote:
Ya gumshoe I know, my plan on checking someone else didn't materialize cause you added fuel to the fire and I didn't have the time to read all day today.
Gonna sleep now, god(and gum) willing I'll do some more constructive play tomorrow. Please before you go to be can I get your opinion on DYH?
My view from a 10min read on him.
He goes passive fairly quickly after a strong pro town start attitude, calling people out trying to promote discussion.
Suddenly he fixates on sl0osh.
I find it very weird that he defended you gum. Even my deathadder mouse is yelling about your funky play.
What's even more interesting is that he made a list of those who accused/defended you. That's 100% fluff.
The only reason that someone would make a list like that is
a)you are 100% sure about the allingment of the player you are defending(that can happen only if you are scum)
b)you are trying to confuse the town (that happens if you are scum)
c)you are starting to play like gumshoe in which case you should take a chill pill, lol
Off to bed, cya tomorrow.
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On February 20 2012 03:26 jaj22 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 15:40 slOosh wrote:On February 19 2012 11:39 jaj22 wrote:
Gah, just realised why that lynch was dumb, which is silly because I figured it last night. Before the last rush, the distribution of the votes and the active player count meant that it was essentially impossible to lynch scum. The correct choice was to no-lynch.
Off to flagellate myself and then sleep. We do the 20-hour dummy voting run on day 2.
Hindsight bias. If you figured it out last night you should have said so, so you either didn't believe that you were right or you withheld information from us. It was speculative reasoning at the time, but I hinted at it in these two posts: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13573775http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13574870I'll explain the eventual reasoning because it's important for the conclusion. Before the late compromise switch, we had 4-5 players each on ET and MG who had no interest in switching to the other, plus another 6 votes scattered between DYH, Sloosh, Gumshoe and DimmuKlok. We had maybe 6-7 players who were active and willing to switch votes. Unless by some fluke scum were all absent for the lynch, we needed scum support to reach 8 votes. The trouble is that this is extremely likely to happen again, because it's a consequence of the lynch deadline. We really need to be narrowing down the field of candidates long before the deadline so that every townie has a chance to make their vote count. The plan: We set a dummy deadline 27 hours after the start of day 2, and we try to get a "lynch" by then. Anyone not treating the deadline seriously should be considered scummy. Someone please agree with this plan before I go completely insane.
Why the heck would you hint at something speculative and hope we pick it up?
If you wanted to talk about it you should have brought it up clearly.
Totally disagree with your reasoning on the voting. If there are at least 8 votes on ET and MG, at least 4 of them must be town.
The reason why it happened as it did was because it took us time for enough content to be posted to build cases. We have enough cases as it is right now, and the rest of this night as well as the whole day to decide.
The one thing I agree is "We really need to be narrowing down the field of candidates".
We only have 1 lynch tomorrow. It isn't wise to go try finding all 4 mafia members at once as it requires too much energy and time and its just an unreasonable goal. It's best to focus on finding one mafia at a time.
What we need right now is focus. Work with the current cases unless you have something really compelling to share.
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+ Show Spoiler +On February 20 2012 02:03 trackd00r wrote:My following thoughts are directed to DoYouHas. 1. I've changed my view on him. If you think that he has been contributing on the discussion, I think you need to take a look closer to his behavior. His play so far has mostly consisted of: 1) Convincing us that gumshoe is town 2) Responding to almost every sloosh's post and draw suspicion upon him. For the first part: Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 09:51 DoYouHas wrote:Here is my thinking on gumshoe so far. I think he is a townie. gumshoe has done a number of things that are not helping the town. The have been pointed out quite a few times so I won't go into depth about them now. Things like derailing, cluttering, unclear-ness, lying, a few inconsistencies. Yet in spite of this my intuition keeps pulling me towards a townie read for him. Here are a few of the things that are informing this stance: First and foremost is gumshoe's reckless and active posting style. I just don't see him as someone who is checking his posts with team members or even as someone who is going to a mafia QT and discussing his moves. He strikes me as playing by the seat of his pants, which is something I would not expect of scum on day1. This is supported by the little inconsistencies in his posting (I am thinking specifically about the one trackd00r pointed out) Secondly, gumshoe has both continued to defend himself about the poll while admitting that it makes him look scummy. I would expect a couple things from a scum put in a similar situation. Either he would play it off as a ploy and a joke in order to get people talking (which he did somewhat) and then try to put it behind him, or he would take some early shots at throwing suspicion onto someone else. He did not try to put it behind him, he even says that you would be crazy not to be suspicious of him for the poll. He took a long long time to start throwing actual suspicions around which I think is a long time to wait when you are scum and in the spotlight early. Like I said at the start, this is a stance based on intuition, not solid logic. So feel free to pick at it. I'll leave you with a bit of information that I've been keeping track of. People who have been defending/supporting gumshoe (soft or otherwise): + Show Spoiler +struck out names are for those who have switched DoYouHas, Alderan, Janaan, TKHawkins, MidnightGladiusPeople who have been attacking/suspicious of gumshoe:MidnightGladius, blae000, ET, Steveling(kinda), trackd00r, sl0osh, Dimmuklok, jaj22, DoYouHas 2. Why were you trying so hard to defend gumshoe? I don't see the point of proving he is green when you said before that he had little contribution. 3.1 Plus, posting lists of people going pro-against doesn't really give us a push as town to kill mafia. Specially when you later said that these kind of posting is not helpful: Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 04:57 DoYouHas wrote:
TKHawkins: Not much to say here. I dislike his first post as it was just a conglomerate of posts others made before with a poor assumption about scum tagged on (an assumption that would exclude TKHawkins from the pool of possible scum of course). Then, in his last post he started following the format of listing everyone with basic reads on them. THIS NEEDS TO STOP. Posting lists is not nearly as helpful as posting thoughtful analysis on a few people. If posting lists becomes standard then we are giving scum an easy way of making long posts that stay shallow.
3.2 The correlation of these two ideas seem very suspicious to me. What do you think? 4. Then you still kept track of gum's play. You point out his mistakes. I don't feel that you are doing it to help gumshoe to post better, but instead to appear to us as someone constantly watching him, like a babysitter. Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 15:45 DoYouHas wrote:
Just finished reading after being away for a while. Gum, for the sake of my eyes, when you quote walls of text, put them in spoilers. If you are doing analysis on that wall of text, link the whole thing then just quote the relevant parts. Also, the preview button is your friend. I'm going to go back over what I just read again and let it sink in a bit.
I dislike that no one directly addressed my defense of gumshoe, with the exception of ET. I wrote it to be picked at and debated, but you all seem content hammering away at each other. Making big cases and walls of text is nice, but spending all your time on them is going to blind you. I know from personal experience.
My schedule is going to be very busy tomorrow. I will be unavailable starting at 4-3 hours before the deadline and remain so for something like 8-9 hours.
In reality, people did not addressed your defense of gumshoe because they are actually more interested in killing mafia, which is the goal of the game and what we should be really doing. I still wonder, why do you worry so much about gum? Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 16:22 DoYouHas wrote:People obviously have strong feelings about you gum. I find it strange that the only hard second party defense of you would be ignored by your accusers. There are any number of things to debate in that post, not the least of which is the obvious WIFOM in the second point. I still think it is a valid point. But I was defending you based off what I would assume a mafia would do in the same situation as you. Maybe people think that my points simply didn't deserve discussion, which would be strange with how hard Steveling, Midnight, and Dimmuklok are coming after you. The only way it has been discussed that I have seen is through statements similar to, "I can't believe people are ignoring gum's anti-town play". Moving on... On February 18 2012 15:52 gumshoe wrote:
As a suggestion, for the upcoming votes, there seems to be two major posting suspects, me and Ech. I can almost assure you that were not both mafia.
[...]
so the best options are either lynch me or ech because we were opposed to one another at the very start and were the most suspicious posters, or vote for hawk because he still hasn't posted.
This is another bad plan gum -_-. I have already explained why I think you are town, and I am far from convinced of ET's scumminess. So from my perspective the only value in your plan is a lynch for information, which is dumb. There is still time on the clock to take apart all the cases that have been presented by quite a few people and really try and get a sense of what is going on. And should that fail I am actually pretty content with landing on someone like MannerKiss or another fluff poster. We need to lynch according to the most likely to be scum, I will try to make my case for who that is early tomorrow so there will still be time for voting. 5. When I read that bolded phrase in your quote, I was expecting to you to drop off a little bit about gum and talk about something else. But yet, you still kept talking about gum. 6. Now regarding to your play against sloosh, I thought for some time you are just being blinded for every thing he posts. You built up so many high expectations him that now every little inconsistency in his played leads to more and more attacks to him. To say something, your suspicion and posterior voting to him was because you wanted him to play in a way that you feel comfortable. You didn't like his attitude in his clash with ET, yet you lifted your suspicion against him. Then you went again. You haven't left a good analysis in any other player since then. It's been enough with sloosh. I highly doubt that you'll get a majority voting for him when if you don't back up your arguments not because why you don't like his play to your criteria, but rather you see his anti-town play. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 04:57 DoYouHas wrote:sl0osh: It may be that sl0osh just has not had time to sit down and really work things out yet, but what he has posted so far still makes me suspicious of him. I already made my original post against him, and that has largely been dealt with. He provided an explanation, and I thought it was reasonable. What isn't reasonable is his extreme lack of taking a stance. I divide his responses into 3 things: responses to pressure, explanation of the game, expressing his own views under his own volition. It is VERY troubling to me how much of the content he has posted fits into those first two categories. Explanation of the game: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)Responses to pressure: ET vs sl0osh (1) (2) (3) (4)Expressing his own views: (1) (2) (3)Take note that the only person he has expressed an opinion on that didn't first attack him is gumshoe, and even those opinions are non-committal. sl0osh has done almost exactly what ET has done, except he hasn't provided us with any stances that we can later use against him. I refuse to believe that with 4hours left in the day, sl0osh has no opinions or cases worth posting. He is just trying to slide by, I won't let him. ##Vote: sl0osh 6.1 He's promoted a case now (yours) and has already given opinions at this moment. I ask again: How is he hurting town? You have only made one post with your reads. I think that you are focusing in single targets to draw out suspicion while keeping discussion with them in order to show your town play, which is not what something that really help us.
1. It is unfair to overlook some of my plays. I FOS'd ET early to pressure him and try and make something constructive out of the early policy talk. I pressured MannerKiss specifically, and revealed he was actively lurking in the process. I tried to step in between slOosh and ET when I felt that their cases against each other weren't helping. I then pressured slOosh with my meta read, forcing an explanation from him. I also used gumshoe's posting of questionable statistics to simultaneously get him to expand on his thoughts and draw Midnight into taking a stand on gumshoe.
This isn't even really a defense I just think you oversimplified my contributions so far.
2. Midnight had just jumped on gumshoe, and slOosh was threatening to do the same. I was trying to stop a bandwagon which I saw as having a high potential for forming.
3. As I mentioned in that post, I keep track of who is talking about who, whether those references are positive or negative, who quotes who, and who ignores who. (I sorely need to update it for the last 24hrs though.) I find this information useful for myself. So I decided to share some of it that was relevant to the discussion on gumshoe. If you did not find that information as helpful at all, then I don't blame you for thinking that it is scummy. As for the lists that I was arguing against, it was a completely different type. I was clearly pointing out posts where every player is mentioned and then a shallow read is given. I had seen 2-3 of them so far and it needed to stop. So to respond to your point, I don't think those 2 points correlate well, if only because I was arguing against a specific kind of list. If you read my reasons for posting that list and still think it is scummy then oh well, because that was my reasoning and I'm not going invent new ones to convince you.
4. Dealt with in my previous response.
5. This is hardly a strong point against me. The top post was me pointing out why I thought my defense of gumshoe should have been part of the conversation. I said moving on, then I moved on to a recent observation I had on one of gumshoes posts. They both deal with gumshoe, but they are different topics. So I don't see my saying 'moving on' as strange.
6. I maintain that while my suspicions were raised on slOosh because of meta. The core of my case against him is based on stepping back, looking at his posting as a whole and seeing what was lacking. I keep being accused of tunneling and being blind, which is possible. But if that is the case it is not because of tunneling myself into a PBPA like people seem to think. It would be because I was already looking at him as suspicious when I decided that his posts were lacking.
6.1 Here is where I actually agree with you trackd00r. I see parallels between how he has pursued his case against me and how he pursued his case against zarepath in NMM3, which has only raised my opinion of his play. I have been stuck defending why I thought he was scum back before my absence when I have been starting to come around to the idea of slOosh being null or town.
I'm going to get into my reads and build a case or two next. If I spend all my time defending myself then I'm not really helping much. I think I'll follow the advice of the people who keep saying at me, "clearing town is a waste of time that is better spent scumhunting".
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On February 19 2012 17:58 DoYouHas wrote:
Grrrr, you KEEP twisting my words. When I dropped my meta read I said it was so that BOTH of us could be constructive in the cases that were happening around us as we had a back and forth. NOT solely for the purpose of me finding other lynch candidates.
How does being constructive in cases have any value aside from finding proper lynch candidates?
Refer to my second point on my original case: DYH spends his time looking constructive by talking about gumshoe but not for the sake of finding scummy people.
What is frustrating me so much is that you are throwing rocks while living in a glass house. You find the fact that I didn't quickly create cases against new people after dropping my original one on you scummy. Yet after you were freed from having to defend yourself did you do any of these things you expected of me? NO. When you defend your lack of cases and stances, you say it is because with 15 people in the game its harder to sift through the filters and come up with a strong case, did you EVER think to apply this reasoning to me? Nope. The only explanation for my inability to make a large strong case after dropping my meta one against you is that I'm scum. It is incredibly hypocritical. And again you seem to miss the point of my case against you. It is not what you have posted, it is what you haven't posted that raises my suspicion. And that is another thing that bothers me. I was not 100% on you being scum. I just did not want to lynch the available candidates and I thought that you would be much more likely to flip scum based on my own reasoning. But now I find myself pigeonholed into pushing you because defending my reasons for suspecting you is all I can do while multiple people are pushing me.
All fluff. I don't apply the same reasoning because we are two distinct cases.
DYH puts down my case for the sake of "being constructive" (dubious claim at that), wastes his time doing his thing with gumshoe and ends up with nothing new but the "slOosh isn't posting his stances he must be mafia"
My goal day 1 is to promote a healthy pro town atmosphere conducive to producing content from which cases can be drawn. I didn't bother building cases on 3 post filters because it's pointless, especially in a newbie game where people are uncertain how to post (besides drawing discussion, but others were doing that so no need to clutter the thread).
What is this about me having no desire to follow up and convince others to lynch you? I gave plenty of notice about my schedule. I can't follow up on my case to further persuade people when I am not here. Both you and gumshoe seem to think I am somehow this mastermind that orchestrated a false absence in order to create a no-lynch. Which is absurd because a no-lynch isn't ideal for scum any more than it is ideal for town.
DYH again is evading the point. It isn't that he was unavailable for the lynch - that's fine and I believe that he had IRL stuff. It's that he voted me knowing that there was next to 0% chance of lynching me that is scummy.
If you want no lynch, you vote no lynch. If you want to lynch, you put it on a scummy candidate that the rest of town has consensus voting, not on some guy no one has even considered lynching.
DYH is treating his vote like trash this game. The townie's power is in his vote. Townies do not treat their votes like trash.
I'm not going to address any more of his defenses as his past two are shoddy, evasive and weak, and commenting on his new ones just gives him an avenue to spout some more nonsense and clutter the thread.
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On February 19 2012 09:52 MidnightGladius wrote:
I told you earlier that I felt more suspicious of DYH than DimmuKlok, but that I didn't think that we could have had a majority on him. This remains true, because if DYH were scum we'd assuredly never get majority, and the people who were in the thread at the time had already posted suspicions of DimmuKlok but not DYH.
He has been awfully quiet and detached. I certainly would like him to speak up.
I was hoping to get your thoughts on DYH, now that he's responded to accusations. Are you still suspicious? In fact, you say that you were actually more suspicious of DYH than DimmuKlok before the vote, but you never actually posted any analysis on him at all. In fact, you only have one post even mentioning him before stating that you'd prefer to lynch him. That post was:
On February 19 2012 05:06 MidnightGladius wrote:
EBWOP:
To DYH: My one-liners were in response to obviously empty posts. There was nothing for me to say, but I wanted to let them know that I was there and ready to respond to more thorough allegations. When they never followed up with anything substantive, I had nothing more to say.
I'm going to read the rest of your post now.
I assume that you did, in fact, read the rest of his post, but didn't feel the need to address any of it? At what point and why did you start suspecting DYH, and what are your thoughts on him now?
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Hey guys, I am reading currently but probably wont post anything for awhile. Its nighttime anyway so its not too important to post a lot now. I voted Midnight because I got subbed in like 12 hours before the lynch, read through the top 3 and voted who I felt was scummiest.
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United States22154 Posts
Remember, if both greymist and I didn't get your night action, then you sit at home knitting scarves, rather than doing your job.
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On February 20 2012 08:10 Janaan wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 09:52 MidnightGladius wrote:
I told you earlier that I felt more suspicious of DYH than DimmuKlok, but that I didn't think that we could have had a majority on him. This remains true, because if DYH were scum we'd assuredly never get majority, and the people who were in the thread at the time had already posted suspicions of DimmuKlok but not DYH.
He has been awfully quiet and detached. I certainly would like him to speak up. I was hoping to get your thoughts on DYH, now that he's responded to accusations. Are you still suspicious? In fact, you say that you were actually more suspicious of DYH than DimmuKlok before the vote, but you never actually posted any analysis on him at all. In fact, you only have one post even mentioning him before stating that you'd prefer to lynch him. That post was: Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 05:06 MidnightGladius wrote:
EBWOP:
To DYH: My one-liners were in response to obviously empty posts. There was nothing for me to say, but I wanted to let them know that I was there and ready to respond to more thorough allegations. When they never followed up with anything substantive, I had nothing more to say.
I'm going to read the rest of your post now. I assume that you did, in fact, read the rest of his post, but didn't feel the need to address any of it? At what point and why did you start suspecting DYH, and what are your thoughts on him now?
I'm staying out of the current DYH/sl00sh debate, because their responses are pretty valid. I think they're starting to talk past each other, now, and so I decided to look in other directions.
I was originally suspicious of DYH when he hadn't yet started responding to our questions, when he wasn't clear on his stance towards lynching, and when he stayed on sl00sh throughout the end of voting without being online to prevent a no-lynch. My thoughts of him now are that he's still being stubborn on the mislynch in hindsight, but I can understand where he's coming from.
On February 20 2012 08:15 Mattchew wrote:
Hey guys, I am reading currently but probably wont post anything for awhile. Its nighttime anyway so its not too important to post a lot now. I voted Midnight because I got subbed in like 12 hours before the lynch, read through the top 3 and voted who I felt was scummiest.
Explain your behavior before the lynch, when you called out gumshoe and left without saying anything else. You do realize that that sequence was very suspicious, right?
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Day 2![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/FyWka.jpg)
Jaj22 hurried out of the back room of the casino as fast as he could. He came across a secrete meeting between a few of the patrons, and decided to hide behind the door and listen in. It didnt take him long to find out what he was listening to. these were the gang members we were so busy looking for! jaj22 tried to slip out silently, but tripped over a stack of chips on the ground. he cursed and tried to run to safety. He did not make it far before he stumbled and felt a plasma beam sear his back. All he could do was look up at his attackers as everything grew dark.
jaj22, the detective, was killed!
+ Show Spoiler +You have been hired by the most succsessful casino in New Vegas, The Liquibet, to investigate its customers for potential threats. You are a Detective. You have the ability to inspect a player every night. You will find out if they are Town or Mafia. You are guaranteed to be sane, but beware of millers, framers and the godfather.
It is now day 2! with 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch. the day ends in 48 hours, on Wednesday, Feb 22 12:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)
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Worst detective ever 
Sorry guys, failed you completely.
GG.
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....shit.....
....I wonder if Mafia is trying to get me to push a mislynch onto MG.
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Ok, we need to look closely at jaj22's posts now. The three most common reasons mafia hit someone are because they are on the right track, because they are largely considered a confirmed townie, or because mafia suspect them of being blue. I did not spot any obvious things pointing towards him being blue in a quick run through of his filter. This makes me think that he was killed for either for being close to a confirmed townie or because he was on the right track. He consistently pushed Midnight, he leaned town for both gumshoe and ET. Those were the main points of his stances, there were a few smaller ones. I am definitely taking this as a reason to reevaluate Midnight.
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This could be hindsight bias, but the fact that he was posting very constructively, while not butting heads with anyone and not posting TOO much makes it not unreasonable that Mafia thought he was blue. He would definitely have been on my short list for potential blues.
I don't want to WIFOM myself out of a potential scum lynch, but shooting jaj, the guy who started the case on Midnight, and leaving me alive, the guy who wants to push MG, seems like really sloppy Mafia play to me. basically, if MG is scum, shooting jaj incriminates him more.
Can you address my previous case on MG, and tell me whether or not you think it is valid? You previously stated that you do not think MG is scum.
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EPT
