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One of my biggest concerns going into the vote was that it felt like the majority of us were set on the players who had made common individual mistakes. It feels like were not really entertaining the notion that the mafia might actually be playing well because were so set on the idea that they are obvius and awful.
Here were our four biggest suspects.
Me: Do I even have to say anything? even I had a hard time going through all my posts when i went back and read the whole thread.
Ech: for being excessively hostile at the start and not contributing much.
Midnight: for posting generic opinions on me and manner and generally not contributing until put on the defence about not contributing, and then basically repeats exactly what he said about me and manner and accuses the people who accused him. Also suggested that me and ech are both mafia which seems kinda ludicrous.
DimmuKlok: Posting suggestions that are sorta silly and then retracting them, lurking for a while, accusing easy choices. Turned out to be just a townie.
If any of these players were or are mafia, I'm inclined to believe that the mafia is really really shitty.
just look at these guys, they have absolutely nothing to do with one another, they attack each other or don't say anything about one another, there are no similarities between them, one is aggressive one is chaotic one is a lurker and one is too by the books. They have only vaguely similar enemies and few common agendas.
I think we should be looking for the similar objectives between players as opposed to the suspicious individual activity.
Because whats the first thing you'd expect out of a good mafia? Organization! Of which these suspects have almost none whatsoever, which leads me to believe that at best only one of the three remaining suspects from yesterday is mafia and it may not even be any of us
We haven't been looking for organization because the good players who are capable of it, the ones who have played before, don't seem very suspicious at first glance , heres a list of players who have been giving off an air of experience and have been at least seemingly helpful.
Do You Has
Sloosh
Janaan
Jaj
alderan
trapdoor
All Their posts seem pretty tight, if somewhat scarce at times.
Theres a chance(I wont say a good one because I got fried for that last time) that one of these intelligent players is mafia
in which case I think trying to find individual flaws in all their posts wont turn up much right now because their a bit more experienced than the average bear. You can yell at HAS for his play as much as you want, but hes is active and he proposed a no lynch(or a sloosh lynch) on the turn we lynched a townie. That looks bad on us, not him.
That said if Do You is a townie I feel like hes just going on his gut right now in accusing sloosh, he should definitely expect sloosh to have a good defence just like he did last time, considering sloosh has proven himself competent and its too early in the game too have a big case against anyone of the grander players, that is if you approach them individually.
If we want to gain any more information on players we think are scum but cant really prove we need to search for alliances and common agendas
We need to try and see what goals groups of 2 to 3 players have been trying to accomplish.
Here are my cases for active organization, there are two, the first one is founded on my bias against Midnight and steveling, the second is founded on my fear of the nightmare scenario for town.
First :The notion that even if I flip green town still somehow benefits: This case implicates Midnight, Steveling and to a lesser degree sloosh.
This is a very bold claim, I'm far more worried about the people who feel that even if I am town I should be lynched anyways then I am worried about the people who just claim I am mafia(like Blae who is totally justified in suspecting me). Because the later opinion wants to kill scum while the former wants to kill a player regardless of their alignment. This opinion is beyond reckless in a 15 player game with four mafia where the mafia gain a clear advantage if a townie is lynched(as one has been). It just seems like a bad move , unless you are mafia and you know that you have every right to accuse me of being scum and you also want to convince the town that the amount of chaos I've brought to the thread is more of a threat to them than you and your piers (the people who want to shoot them) are
The first person to openly convey this perspective albeit lightly and constructively was Sloosh
+ Show Spoiler +Gumshoe I am seriously considering lynching you due to your anti-town play. You are cluttering the thread despite numerous requests to stop. Your posts are still without content. Saying that we have a higher probability to hit mafia since there are 4 opposed to 3 is irrelevant and unhelpful in finding the mafia.
If you keep it up I will push for your lynch, because your play right now is detrimental to town.
I actually don't read much out of this, at the time I was arguing about the odds of a lurker being mafia which really isn’t that helpful. I think Sloosh means what he means here, that I should stop cluttering the thread, this quote alone means nothing.. (Note though that shortly after sloosh made the implication that I was harmful to the town regardless of wether I was green or red Midnight attacks me)
The next person isn't nearly as taciturn about the decision to lynch a harmful townie, Heres what steveling had to say at the end of his long vanilla accusation of me bieng mafia.
+ Show Spoiler +Your play is scum 100% gomshoe. You post in quantity but not in quality. You lie. You so admit it yourself.
You make obvious WIFOM play.
In fact your play is so weird that even in the off chance that you are a dazed towny it's still better to kill you off now.
In that last part steve is making an entirely different case, not that I'm mafia, but that my death can only benefit the town. He makes this clear later on before he logs off
+ Show Spoiler +place my vote on gumshoe. The reasoning for this is in my case against him.
tldr:I wanna kill him cause of his scummy play. Regardless of his allingment his play is ultra scummy, that's anti town.
He again hinges on his argument for me being mafia, but makes sure to note that I should die either way. right now in the game were down a town and if I'm lynched and I come up as town that is a horrible blow regardless of what he thinks of my play, I know that for a fact, someone please argue for the sake of two mislynches please. If you convict me, convict me of being mafia, not a general threat to the town.
Also this notion that its ok too lynch a townie is kinda funny coming from the guy who claimed to be the sheth of mini mafia.
remember this? + Show Spoiler +So, my view on the whole thing is that we should push for a no lynch day 1.
weird wasn't it, his excuses later on for it? + Show Spoiler +With our current cases, I just thought that we were gonna lose a towny
huh, pretty humane thing coming out of someone who proposed a few hours later that a bad townie is 100 percent worth lynching.
Meanwhile I was fighting with midnight and midnight said the following
+ Show Spoiler +Mislynching gives away so much information in terms of voting patterns and people's posting behavior, for and against. Mafia night kills only generate WIFOM, and there's not much more to be said about that.
Again another argument in favour of mislynching thats being given at a similar time as Steveling's argument.
After that Steveling backed up Midnight's opinion, he backed up the guy who shared the same agenda with him(lynch gum) and shared the same phillosiphy with him (a bad townie is worth lynching) steveling even reached out to defend midnight! The guy who was fighting his battle with him.
The behaviour between these two seems of a very similar vein despite the fact that Steveling has only addressed Midnight once in the whole game and to back up his similar opinion.
Heres one last thing that bugged me about Steveling, he said this
spoiler]With each post you make, I'm getting more and more confident about killing you, lol.[/spoiler]
doesn't he mean lynch me, or vote for me? How can you alone kill me? He didnt say "makes me wanna vote or convince everyone else to vote for you" you said kill me.
The only people who kill in this game are mafia and vigilantes. Steve if your a vig why would you risk yourself by using that phrasing?
If it was just a slip it was a careless one and it doesn't help my opinion of you.
So thats the first set of correlation's I wanted to talk about and it was very easy to talk about because I don't like Gladeus( how he backed off of me to vote for Ech when people started to pressure him didn't at all help my opinion of him) and I'm not a fan of Steveling, this next part though is not gonna be to easy to suggest.
Because this is my nightmare scenario, I think until we lynch a mafia we need to actively consider the worst case scenario ,the possibility that the mafia has the mental upper hand, that they are intelligent and have come up with plans to adapt if a teammate catches fire. My next set of accusations will begin shortly and just to clarify they dont have anything to do with my accusations against steve and midnight.
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On February 19 2012 11:39 jaj22 wrote:
Gah, just realised why that lynch was dumb, which is silly because I figured it last night. Before the last rush, the distribution of the votes and the active player count meant that it was essentially impossible to lynch scum. The correct choice was to no-lynch.
Off to flagellate myself and then sleep. We do the 20-hour dummy voting run on day 2.
Hindsight bias. If you figured it out last night you should have said so, so you either didn't believe that you were right or you withheld information from us.
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On February 19 2012 06:22 slOosh wrote:His first accusations are on me and MannerKiss. I've already shared how I don't like the logic he uses. His reasoning is that I am not playing to his expectations and therefore my subpar play indicates that I am mafia.
Yes, the heart of my first accusation of slOosh was based in meta. I saw reasons for ET's actions that slOosh did not acknowledge, and then there was the confirmation bias filled post analyzing ET's attitude towards slOosh and gumshoe. Yet I left my case alone after slOosh provided a reasonable explanation for his posting. I was still keeping an eye on him, but I wasn't going to actively push him.
On February 19 2012 06:22 slOosh wrote:His next posts talk about how he thinks gumshoe is town. Notice how he doesn't focus on finding mafia, but clearing town. That looks pro-town but it isn't. We want to agree and lynch the strongest scum suspect. He thinks gumshoe is town. Fine whatever, Why isn't he moving on and trying to find mafia? Why is he upset that we aren't discussing how gumshoe is town?
Trying to stop a bandwagon onto someone I think is town is anti-town? Up until that point I had not made my stance on gumshoe clear. I posted my defense in the hopes that my stance would be clear, that hopefully people would agree with me and we could move from gumshoe on to more productive targets, or if not that at least through attacking my reasons for gumshoe being town the discussion could become more constructive than just hammering away at gumshoe himself. I was upset that my defense of gumshoe failed to get discussed because with Steveling and Midnight going after gumshoe, my defense was relevant to the discussion. Yet it was largely ignored. I don't like being ignored. I thought I brought up good points, but those who agreed with me didn't voice that opinion, and those who disagreed just ignored it.
On February 19 2012 06:22 slOosh wrote:After throwing out some weak accusations on MidnightGladius, TKHawkins, Dimmuklok and slOosh (me), he ends by voting on me. Again, I see nothing in him that wants a successful lynch. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 04:57 DoYouHas wrote:
Take note that the only person he has expressed an opinion on that didn't first attack him is gumshoe, and even those opinions are non-committal. sl0osh has done almost exactly what ET has done, except he hasn't provided us with any stances that we can later use against him. I refuse to believe that with 4hours left in the day, sl0osh has no opinions or cases worth posting. He is just trying to slide by, I won't let him.
##Vote: sl0osh His reasoning to lynch me is because "I will be harder to read later on, so it is best to lynch me now."
First off, I was not throwing accusations at Midnight, TKHawkins, and Dimmuklok. I was pointing out things that I found while trying to make cases that I thought should be said even though I was not going to push for their lynch.
Secondly, slOosh has incorrectly summarized the reasoning behind my pushing him. It is not, "I will be harder to read later on, so it is best to lynch me now." It is that I see slOosh as having studiously avoided posting things that would be useful in analysis of day 1 in respect of the information gained by a lynch. Instead he filled his filter with explanations and clarifications, not with stances and cases. (remember, this is before his case on me)
On February 19 2012 06:22 slOosh wrote:And his response while I am typing this up seals the deal. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 06:02 DoYouHas wrote:
I am not comfortable lynching Midnight, ET, or Dimmuklok. A no lynch is preferable to me at this point. If I have not been convincing enough with my case against sl0osh, so be it. Find the majority without me.
##Vote sl0osh He has no reads, and wants to lynch me but doesn't put any effort into it.
I have no reads? I had a meta read on sl0osh early. I provided the original reasoning that put MannerKiss on everyone's radar. I had a town read on gumshoe, which I revealed and defended. I trusted my read on slOosh enough to vote for him and stick with it even if it meant a no-lynch. As for not putting in effort into my case on slOosh, that is wrong as well. One of the things I learned from NMM3 was that a PBPA with a wall of text tends to clutter your good points with your bad ones while simultaneously pulling you into confirmation bias. So when I made my case against slOosh, I tried to be concise, I tried to focus on a fundamental flaw in his day1 behavior, and I provided the posting evidence to back up my conclusion.
I will respond to others if I must. But I feel I've addressed the most of the points against me in this post and the previous one.
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Gah gumshoe. I liked how your post started then you started deviating hard and just trailed off into not so good.
Try putting a cap on your posts, say 15 lines, and try to convey what you want within those lines.
We don't want all your thoughts, we just want the best / relevant / concrete thoughts.
I liked gumshoe's point on organization. It is true that mafia are working as a team, and it will expose itself to some public degree. As for your thoughts on DoYouHas
On February 19 2012 15:30 gumshoe wrote:
Theres a chance(I wont say a good one because I got fried for that last time) that one of these intelligent players is mafia
in which case I think trying to find individual flaws in all their posts wont turn up much right now because their a bit more experienced than the average bear. You can yell at HAS for his play as much as you want, but hes is active and he proposed a no lynch(or a sloosh lynch) on the turn we lynched a townie. That looks bad on us, not him.
Activity doesn't correspond with being town. Inactivity may be scummy, but activity in itself is neutral. It's what you do with your activity that is meaningful. In DoYouHas' case, he just looks pro-town, but isn't really. I invite you to read over my case and think about what I am saying.
As for your conclusion on his lynch attempt (if it can even be called that), consider this:
What if DimmuKlok flipped mafia?
Only mafia knew beforehand what he would flip, and can act accordingly with this information.
You have to separate motives with the results of the lynch.
I also speculate that his incessant buddying with you is an attempt to look good should you be lynched & flip town.
(What Bromancipate did with zelblade in NMMIII for those who read that).
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On a side note, if you are going to shorten my name, please use DYH. It sticks out to me far more than Do, or Has.
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On February 19 2012 16:14 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 06:22 slOosh wrote:His next posts talk about how he thinks gumshoe is town. Notice how he doesn't focus on finding mafia, but clearing town. That looks pro-town but it isn't. We want to agree and lynch the strongest scum suspect. He thinks gumshoe is town. Fine whatever, Why isn't he moving on and trying to find mafia? Why is he upset that we aren't discussing how gumshoe is town? Trying to stop a bandwagon onto someone I think is town is anti-town? Up until that point I had not made my stance on gumshoe clear. I posted my defense in the hopes that my stance would be clear, that hopefully people would agree with me and we could move from gumshoe on to more productive targets, or if not that at least through attacking my reasons for gumshoe being town the discussion could become more constructive than just hammering away at gumshoe himself. I was upset that my defense of gumshoe failed to get discussed because with Steveling and Midnight going after gumshoe, my defense was relevant to the discussion. Yet it was largely ignored. I don't like being ignored. I thought I brought up good points, but those who agreed with me didn't voice that opinion, and those who disagreed just ignored it.
Not even addressing my points. It isn't defense of someone who you think that is town that is bad. It is the lack of trying to find scummier alternative suspects.
On February 19 2012 16:14 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 06:22 slOosh wrote:After throwing out some weak accusations on MidnightGladius, TKHawkins, Dimmuklok and slOosh (me), he ends by voting on me. Again, I see nothing in him that wants a successful lynch. On February 19 2012 04:57 DoYouHas wrote:
Take note that the only person he has expressed an opinion on that didn't first attack him is gumshoe, and even those opinions are non-committal. sl0osh has done almost exactly what ET has done, except he hasn't provided us with any stances that we can later use against him. I refuse to believe that with 4hours left in the day, sl0osh has no opinions or cases worth posting. He is just trying to slide by, I won't let him.
##Vote: sl0osh His reasoning to lynch me is because "I will be harder to read later on, so it is best to lynch me now." First off, I was not throwing accusations at Midnight, TKHawkins, and Dimmuklok. I was pointing out things that I found while trying to make cases that I thought should be said even though I was not going to push for their lynch. Secondly, slOosh has incorrectly summarized the reasoning behind my pushing him. It is not, "I will be harder to read later on, so it is best to lynch me now." It is that I see slOosh as having studiously avoided posting things that would be useful in analysis of day 1 in respect of the information gained by a lynch. Instead he filled his filter with explanations and clarifications, not with stances and cases. (remember, this is before his case on me)
These "explanations and clarifications" are to promote a healthy town atmosphere. I explained here why I haven't posted anything yet. So unless you think the things I said weren't to promote good town atmosphere you are trying to lynch me for a lack of stances. You also seem to forget the necessity of each player to vote, which would have forced a response from me anyhow.
On February 19 2012 16:14 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 06:22 slOosh wrote:And his response while I am typing this up seals the deal. On February 19 2012 06:02 DoYouHas wrote:
I am not comfortable lynching Midnight, ET, or Dimmuklok. A no lynch is preferable to me at this point. If I have not been convincing enough with my case against sl0osh, so be it. Find the majority without me.
##Vote sl0osh He has no reads, and wants to lynch me but doesn't put any effort into it. I have no reads? I had a meta read on sl0osh early. I provided the original reasoning that put MannerKiss on everyone's radar. I had a town read on gumshoe, which I revealed and defended. I trusted my read on slOosh enough to vote for him and stick with it even if it meant a no-lynch. As for not putting in effort into my case on slOosh, that is wrong as well. One of the things I learned from NMM3 was that a PBPA with a wall of text tends to clutter your good points with your bad ones while simultaneously pulling you into confirmation bias. So when I made my case against slOosh, I tried to be concise, I tried to focus on a fundamental flaw in his day1 behavior, and I provided the posting evidence to back up my conclusion. I will respond to others if I must. But I feel I've addressed the most of the points against me in this post and the previous one.
You had a meta read on me early, dropped it here for the purpose of finding other candidates, digressed into defending gumshoe whilst not offering any alternatives, points out some inconclusive stuff on Midnight, Hawkins and DimmuKlok, votes for me as his strongest scum read but has no desire to follow up and convince others to lynch me.
You haven't addressed anything, and your evasive post isn't helping you either.
Sleeping now. Please contribute people. Just because day 1 is over doesn't mean the lurker problem is gone. Contribute to town or you will be next on my scumhunt list.
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We've been focusing too much on whose accusing who and not enough on whose helping each other out.
Just look how much these players have been supporting each other.
Jannan said
+ Show Spoiler +One player that concerns me right now is MannerKiss. First he gets called out to provide some decent content by DoYouHas, then he posts a single sentence acknowledging DoYouHas's post, but doesn't post any content. I'm getting slightly scummy vibes from his play right now. It's worth looking into as we go forward.
In this post Janaan heavily suspects mannerkiss and in doing so he suggests that Has is trustworthy and was right to pressure manner.
more from Jannan
+ Show Spoiler +DoYouHas: Pretty strong towny feel to me. He's been willing to call people out and promoting real discussion from the town.
Sloosh: Still on the neutral side, BUT probably leaning toward the town side of things. Since defending himself from Echelon, he's been trying to clear the thread of fluffy responses, to allow for real discussion, which is also what he did in NMM3.
Alderan: Feeling a bit towny to me. He was the first to provide a full-on case against someone, which is usually a pro-town action.
So we see Janaan once again supported Do, his reasons seem valid but almost eager, as if hes searching for nice things to say about HAS.
also Jaanan's post on alderaan is kinda funny, he speaks from experience saying that good townies post cases but...
+ Show Spoiler +This is my first game of forum mafia, I've played very casual in-person games, though most of those have little to no actual scum-hunting and just fairly random fingerpointing, so I'd barely count that as real experience
where did you learn this exactly? Isn't this suggestion pretty wifom to begin with?
Heres some more compliments for Do out of trap door.
+ Show Spoiler +DoyouHas seems to be pointing the town to the right direction: taking the confidence to be the first to post (BUT last newbie mafia the first poster turned to be scum, with the difference that it was just fluff), gathering information and making his stand clear to everyone. Seems very pro town from me, the same way he did it in NMM3.
Heres some more
+ Show Spoiler +DoYouHas Very active, pointing good posts and having a very good analysis in his posts. A very good town read from him.
Trak door also says this about alderan.
+ Show Spoiler +He looks very town for me at least. You made your stand clear from the start and you are pressuring Dimmu. Looks very neat so far.
and this about Jannan + Show Spoiler +Janaan Hard to read. He has good intentions and makes good points, but I still i want to hear more from him. Looking forward to his posts.
Jannan has reinforced do and alderan. Trak has reinforced do and Alderaan and says Janaan has good points.
Do compliments none of them openley as of yet but as we see up ahead...
+ Show Spoiler +Here is my thinking on gumshoe so far. I think he is a townie.
gumshoe has done a number of things that are not helping the town. The have been pointed out quite a few times so I won't go into depth about them now. Things like derailing, cluttering, unclear-ness, lying, a few inconsistencies. Yet in spite of this my intuition keeps pulling me towards a townie read for him. Here are a few of the things that are informing this stance:
First and foremost is gumshoe's reckless and active posting style. I just don't see him as someone who is checking his posts with team members or even as someone who is going to a mafia QT and discussing his moves. He strikes me as playing by the seat of his pants, which is something I would not expect of scum on day1. This is supported by the little inconsistencies in his posting (I am thinking specifically about the one trackd00r pointed out)
Secondly, gumshoe has both continued to defend himself about the poll while admitting that it makes him look scummy. I would expect a couple things from a scum put in a similar situation. Either he would play it off as a ploy and a joke in order to get people talking (which he did somewhat) and then try to put it behind him, or he would take some early shots at throwing suspicion onto someone else. He did not try to put it behind him, he even says that you would be crazy not to be suspicious of him for the poll. He took a long long time to start throwing actual suspicions around which I think is a long time to wait when you are scum and in the spotlight early.
Like I said at the start, this is a stance based on intuition, not solid logic. So feel free to pick at it.
I'll leave you with a bit of information that I've been keeping track of.
People who have been defending/supporting gumshoe (soft or otherwise):
struck out names are for those who have switched
DoYouHas, Alderan, Janaan, TKHawkins,
People who have been attacking/suspicious of gumshoe:
MidnightGladius, blae000, ET, Steveling(kinda), trackd00r, sl0osh, Dimmuklok, jaj22,
the big thing here is that Do You is basically saying that from his point of view anyone who suspects me(gumshoe) is either wrong or mafia. The problem? Look at all the people in the suspects chair.
The suspects include everyone he has called out or threatened and then some. He's making a direct correlation between what he considers scummy behaviour and the people who were suspicious of me, so if he were a bit more specific here you could get a read on who he thinks is scum for accusing me, but he throws way too many people out there into the suspicious section(over half the town) the list cannot be used to ascertain Has's opinions because it's too big. The guys on your side though? We see janaan, your biggest supporter, hawk whose a lurker and Alderan who is also complimented by janaan and track.
Another thing, you are the only veteranish player on your side of the list, very curios when you think about it, the other veterans are naturally suspicious of anything so blatant as my poll, thats why theyre veteranish, you though stand alone, resolved in your faith in me.
I don't believe you, you should be on the other side of that list, hell you even were a little suspicious a short while before you posted this list(you said so yourself).
Why is DO making this list, why is he helping me the person whose most suspicious? To be honest I don't really think its to save me, I think its a preliminary strike, if I die and flip green he looks good because he didn't suspect me and he gets to crumb suspicion on sloosh and ech or any one else on this HUGE list of suspects. This list is meant to be a tool of Do's later on in the game once I'm lynched.
This is a pretty big risk to take as town just to gain some cred though, Yet as mafia there is not a risk at all in defending me(gumshoe) because a) you know that I'm town because I'm not part of your mafia and you therefore know that when I flip I wont draw any real suspicion back to you, in fact if I'm lynched you look stronger as a result because you were right about me all along while everyone else according to you was suspicious because they were in the suspicion department(huh, just realized that the number of people in the suspicion section was 8, majority vote. Enough to get me lynched.)
now reason b) I'm under fire, so you know I'll gladly accept your aid without suspicion, also because I'm on fire you know theres a good chance I'll be lynched day one or day two, in other words your investment in me will pay off very quickly, ill die you'll say something along the lines of "I TOLD YOU SO" to everyone and gain massive influence, enough to linch someone like sloosh who you've marked out since the start of the game.
Also I don't care what you thought, your choice vote to sloosh did three things, 1, wasted a vote, 2 put more doubt on sloosh 3, allowed you to separate yourself from the ramifications of the vote. these things aren't good for town, they're good for you, HAS is just helping HAS.
You are wasting our time, and you almost wasted our vote. Your not looking too friendly and neither is your fan club, whose support seemed to have just vanished on the seven winds the moment we began attacking you.
Trackdoor do you still support Has? Why?
all these questions will be answered soon! find out whose scum next time on dragon ballzeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Night night
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On February 19 2012 16:23 DoYouHas wrote:
On a side note, if you are going to shorten my name, please use DYH. It sticks out to me far more than Do, or Has.
kk DYH, k so about manner, I have an issue, listen to this quote
+ Show Spoiler +MannerKiss, his fairly immediate response to me calling him out told me he was paying attention to the thread IE, actively lurking. The two explanations for which would be a new townie unsure of what to post, or a new scum unsure of what to post. The one-liner back at me and his lack of a response to me trying to call him out a second time make me feel it is more likely the latter.
You know who said that? Someone confident, someone who is logical, I 100 percent agreed with the you who wrote that and I still do, so why in babylons name you would swap this opinion for this?
+ Show Spoiler +sl0osh: It may be that sl0osh just has not had time to sit down and really work things out yet, but what he has posted so far still makes me suspicious of him. I already made my original post against him, and that has largely been dealt with. He provided an explanation, and I thought it was reasonable. What isn't reasonable is his extreme lack of taking a stance. I divide his responses into 3 things: responses to pressure, explanation of the game, expressing his own views under his own volition. It is VERY troubling to me how much of the content he has posted fits into those first two categories.
Explanation of the game: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Responses to pressure: ET vs sl0osh (1) (2) (3) (4)
Expressing his own views: (1) (2) (3)
Take note that the only person he has expressed an opinion on that didn't first attack him is gumshoe, and even those opinions are non-committal. sl0osh has done almost exactly what ET has done, except he hasn't provided us with any stances that we can later use against him. I refuse to believe that with 4hours left in the day, sl0osh has no opinions or cases worth posting. He is just trying to slide by, I won't let him.
this is such a weaker case in comparison, and phrases like + Show Spoiler +He is just trying to slide by, I won't let him
Instead we barely lynched dim and manner didn't even get a single bloody vote.
DYH if you really are trying to contribute i ask that you be willing to vote for at least two people tomorrow, if Sloosh continues to write insubstantial stuff then fight again, but if he steps up at least entertain the notion that he's town so you don't end up being a factor in a no lynch(which we can no longer afford really).
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On February 19 2012 16:56 gumshoe wrote: We've been focusing too much on whose accusing who and not enough on whose helping each other out. Just look how much these players have been supporting each other. Jannan said + Show Spoiler +One player that concerns me right now is MannerKiss. First he gets called out to provide some decent content by DoYouHas, then he posts a single sentence acknowledging DoYouHas's post, but doesn't post any content. I'm getting slightly scummy vibes from his play right now. It's worth looking into as we go forward. In this post Janaan heavily suspects mannerkiss and in doing so he suggests that Has is trustworthy and was right to pressure manner. 1more from Jannan + Show Spoiler +DoYouHas: Pretty strong towny feel to me. He's been willing to call people out and promoting real discussion from the town.
Sloosh: Still on the neutral side, BUT probably leaning toward the town side of things. Since defending himself from Echelon, he's been trying to clear the thread of fluffy responses, to allow for real discussion, which is also what he did in NMM3.
Alderan: Feeling a bit towny to me. He was the first to provide a full-on case against someone, which is usually a pro-town action. So we see Janaan once again supported Do, his reasons seem valid but almost eager, as if hes searching for nice things to say about HAS. 2also Jaanan's post on alderaan is kinda funny, he speaks from experience saying that good townies post cases but... + Show Spoiler +This is my first game of forum mafia, I've played very casual in-person games, though most of those have little to no actual scum-hunting and just fairly random fingerpointing, so I'd barely count that as real experience where did you learn this exactly? Isn't this suggestion pretty wifom to begin with? 3
I wasn't planning on posting any more tonight, since it's late and my brain may not be working very logically, but since I won't be on for until tomorrow afternoon (about 12 hours from now at least) I guess I should address this now.
First off, I hope you see just how incredibly WIFOM the entire argument is. It's all based on the assumption that the players will not come up with the same basic conclusion unless we're all working together and communicating outside the thread. But now I'll address the parts that directly apply to me.
1. As I've said at least twice before, my first post, which this quote is taken from, wasn't about accusing people. I didn't "heavily suspect" anyone, I had literally just got to the thread and was posting first impressions. Do I think DoYouHas was right to pressure, and ask for a read from Manner? Yeah. Yeah, I do. Forgive me if you think it's scummy that I think people should post content, especially when asked specifically for it. Did it have anything to do with DoYouHas specifically? Not at all. The only reason I pulled his name out specifically from the rest of my post trying to encourage lurkers to post was that he was called out on lurking, let us know that he was paying attention to the thread, and still refused to post content.
2. At this point, I was basically thinking out loud with my reads. I was basically thinking along the same overall lines as what I read DoYouHas's intentions as being (getting town to talk more, ask people for their reads, etc.) So, I read him as town. Since then, my town read on him hasn't even been that strong, though. Not enough to really post about (it's been said already anyways) but the read is changing. As far as Alderan is concerned, he made basically the same overall read on DimmuKlan that I did, he just posted it first. So yeah, I did say that I think he felt towny.
3. This part is really WIFOM, honestly. Yes, I said I've only actually played casual games of mafia before, and none were very analytical. That doesn't mean I have no idea how an actual game of mafia should be played, or what a decent town should act like. I've read the newbie guides, read through a couple games, and obsed NMM3 before actually signing up to play. Yes, posting analysis is a good thing. Maybe it doesn't matter if it's the *first* analysis, but analysis is still a good thing.
As for the rest of your post, I really can't say. That was all posted by other people, so you'll have to ask them where they got their reads and such from.
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+ Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 16:45 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 16:14 DoYouHas wrote:On February 19 2012 06:22 slOosh wrote:His next posts talk about how he thinks gumshoe is town. Notice how he doesn't focus on finding mafia, but clearing town. That looks pro-town but it isn't. We want to agree and lynch the strongest scum suspect. He thinks gumshoe is town. Fine whatever, Why isn't he moving on and trying to find mafia? Why is he upset that we aren't discussing how gumshoe is town? Trying to stop a bandwagon onto someone I think is town is anti-town? Up until that point I had not made my stance on gumshoe clear. I posted my defense in the hopes that my stance would be clear, that hopefully people would agree with me and we could move from gumshoe on to more productive targets, or if not that at least through attacking my reasons for gumshoe being town the discussion could become more constructive than just hammering away at gumshoe himself. I was upset that my defense of gumshoe failed to get discussed because with Steveling and Midnight going after gumshoe, my defense was relevant to the discussion. Yet it was largely ignored. I don't like being ignored. I thought I brought up good points, but those who agreed with me didn't voice that opinion, and those who disagreed just ignored it. Not even addressing my points. It isn't defense of someone who you think that is town that is bad. It is the lack of trying to find scummier alternative suspects. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 16:14 DoYouHas wrote:On February 19 2012 06:22 slOosh wrote:After throwing out some weak accusations on MidnightGladius, TKHawkins, Dimmuklok and slOosh (me), he ends by voting on me. Again, I see nothing in him that wants a successful lynch. On February 19 2012 04:57 DoYouHas wrote:
Take note that the only person he has expressed an opinion on that didn't first attack him is gumshoe, and even those opinions are non-committal. sl0osh has done almost exactly what ET has done, except he hasn't provided us with any stances that we can later use against him. I refuse to believe that with 4hours left in the day, sl0osh has no opinions or cases worth posting. He is just trying to slide by, I won't let him.
##Vote: sl0osh His reasoning to lynch me is because "I will be harder to read later on, so it is best to lynch me now." First off, I was not throwing accusations at Midnight, TKHawkins, and Dimmuklok. I was pointing out things that I found while trying to make cases that I thought should be said even though I was not going to push for their lynch. Secondly, slOosh has incorrectly summarized the reasoning behind my pushing him. It is not, "I will be harder to read later on, so it is best to lynch me now." It is that I see slOosh as having studiously avoided posting things that would be useful in analysis of day 1 in respect of the information gained by a lynch. Instead he filled his filter with explanations and clarifications, not with stances and cases. (remember, this is before his case on me) These "explanations and clarifications" are to promote a healthy town atmosphere. I explained here why I haven't posted anything yet. So unless you think the things I said weren't to promote good town atmosphere you are trying to lynch me for a lack of stances. You also seem to forget the necessity of each player to vote, which would have forced a response from me anyhow. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 16:14 DoYouHas wrote:On February 19 2012 06:22 slOosh wrote:And his response while I am typing this up seals the deal. On February 19 2012 06:02 DoYouHas wrote:
I am not comfortable lynching Midnight, ET, or Dimmuklok. A no lynch is preferable to me at this point. If I have not been convincing enough with my case against sl0osh, so be it. Find the majority without me.
##Vote sl0osh He has no reads, and wants to lynch me but doesn't put any effort into it. I have no reads? I had a meta read on sl0osh early. I provided the original reasoning that put MannerKiss on everyone's radar. I had a town read on gumshoe, which I revealed and defended. I trusted my read on slOosh enough to vote for him and stick with it even if it meant a no-lynch. As for not putting in effort into my case on slOosh, that is wrong as well. One of the things I learned from NMM3 was that a PBPA with a wall of text tends to clutter your good points with your bad ones while simultaneously pulling you into confirmation bias. So when I made my case against slOosh, I tried to be concise, I tried to focus on a fundamental flaw in his day1 behavior, and I provided the posting evidence to back up my conclusion. I will respond to others if I must. But I feel I've addressed the most of the points against me in this post and the previous one. You had a meta read on me early, dropped it here for the purpose of finding other candidates, digressed into defending gumshoe whilst not offering any alternatives, points out some inconclusive stuff on Midnight, Hawkins and DimmuKlok, votes for me as his strongest scum read but has no desire to follow up and convince others to lynch me. You haven't addressed anything, and your evasive post isn't helping you either. Sleeping now. Please contribute people. Just because day 1 is over doesn't mean the lurker problem is gone. Contribute to town or you will be next on my scumhunt list.
Grrrr, you KEEP twisting my words. When I dropped my meta read I said it was so that BOTH of us could be constructive in the cases that were happening around us as we had a back and forth. NOT solely for the purpose of me finding other lynch candidates. What is frustrating me so much is that you are throwing rocks while living in a glass house. You find the fact that I didn't quickly create cases against new people after dropping my original one on you scummy. Yet after you were freed from having to defend yourself did you do any of these things you expected of me? NO. When you defend your lack of cases and stances, you say it is because with 15 people in the game its harder to sift through the filters and come up with a strong case, did you EVER think to apply this reasoning to me? Nope. The only explanation for my inability to make a large strong case after dropping my meta one against you is that I'm scum. It is incredibly hypocritical. And again you seem to miss the point of my case against you. It is not what you have posted, it is what you haven't posted that raises my suspicion. And that is another thing that bothers me. I was not 100% on you being scum. I just did not want to lynch the available candidates and I thought that you would be much more likely to flip scum based on my own reasoning. But now I find myself pigeonholed into pushing you because defending my reasons for suspecting you is all I can do while multiple people are pushing me.
What is this about me having no desire to follow up and convince others to lynch you? I gave plenty of notice about my schedule. I can't follow up on my case to further persuade people when I am not here. Both you and gumshoe seem to think I am somehow this mastermind that orchestrated a false absence in order to create a no-lynch. Which is absurd because a no-lynch isn't ideal for scum any more than it is ideal for town.
While I seem to be in the ranting mood. Gumshoe, you are using the information of who is openly supporting who to decide your group of mafia which is really unlikely. You need to be looking for groups that work towards the same goals without trying to associate with each other. Scum naturally do not want to draw attention to their associations with each other, especially day 1, and will often be ambivalent towards each other in order to keep their options open. This isn't a hard rule, but it is far more likely than a group of 3 people all posting strong town reads on each other. Also, you are attacking me on the basis that a no-lynch is the worst outcome possible, which it isn't, a mislynch is. I don't like the idea of a no-lynch any more than the rest of you, but from my individual perspective, it was preferable to a high likelihood mislynch. And as for my case on MannerKiss? why didn't I push it? You have ignored that he was swapped for mattchew. Past experience and other people have told me that that makes MannerKiss most likely town. That is easily enough for me not to push him and let mattchew get involved on night1 and day2.
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Gum gum gum gum....
That's exactly why I believe your play is bad and hurts town.
You have me spending precious time trying to decipher your scribble while I wanted to check other people's filters.
That's all you did so far in the game, wasted time.
You make unfounded and ridiculous claims. You also seem to either not being able to comprehend written word or be too focused in your delusions. Which of them is true I don't care.
Let's look at the extent of the uselessness of your claims.
On February 19 2012 15:30 gumshoe wrote:
Also this notion that its ok too lynch a townie is kinda funny coming from the guy who claimed to be the sheth of mini mafia.
huh, pretty humane thing coming out of someone who proposed a few hours later that a bad townie is 100 percent worth lynching.
Who in the name of God would say that he's too kind in a game of forum Mafia? Do you even read what you type?
I obviously meant that my phrasing is soft(for example using "lol", "xP" and stuff like that) and not that I AM KIND IN THE WAY I PLAY. I feel like an idiot just trying to make sense with you.
Next,
On February 19 2012 15:30 gumshoe wrote:+ Show Spoiler +With each post you make, I'm getting more and more confident about killing you, lol. doesn't he mean lynch me, or vote for me? How can you alone kill me? He didnt say "makes me wanna vote or convince everyone else to vote for you" you said kill me. The only people who kill in this game are mafia and vigilantes. Steve if your a vig why would you risk yourself by using that phrasing?
Yeah dude you are right. I obviously meant that I will personally kill you. Not by voting, cause fuck that, that's for pussies.
You see what you want to see then proceed to make a stupid claim.
You proceed to make the worst suggestion you could possibly make after that.
On February 19 2012 15:30 gumshoe wrote:
We need to try and see what goals groups of 2 to 3 players have been trying to accomplish.
You are a player who thought that the "poll" we all know about was a good idea. You managed to throw us into a meaningless discussion for half the 1st day.
Now you are proposing to check into group patterns? Even seasoned veterans with dozens of games under their belts can't do that. On top of this it's the 1st night dude, we can't possibly look for group patterns in the 1st freaking night.
I can't view this in any other way than an attempt to confuse the town again and stir us away from constructive and meaningfull posts, much like you are doing with me now, wasting my time on you.
On February 19 2012 15:30 gumshoe wrote:
This is a very bold claim, I'm far more worried about the people who feel that even if I am town I should be lynched anyways then I am worried about the people who just claim I am mafia(like Blae who is totally justified in suspecting me). Because the later opinion wants to kill scum while the former wants to kill a player regardless of their alignment. This opinion is beyond reckless in a 15 player game with four mafia where the mafia gain a clear advantage if a townie is lynched(as one has been). It just seems like a bad move , unless you are mafia and you know that you have every right to accuse me of being scum and you also want to convince the town that the amount of chaos I've brought to the thread is more of a threat to them than you and your piers (the people who want to shoot them) are
Oh look! It's you WIFOMING AGAIN! How rare!
You then say that lynching a bad towny(yourself that is) is wrong.
No dude,it's not wrong, and in your case, it's actually recommended.
My first mafia game, which I joined pretty late cause I subbed someone, was a huge game with 80 players and almost all veterans were there.
Just as I joined and begun reading, the thing that caught my attention most, was the almost unanimous agreement to ignore one player and his posting as trolling/bad play. The player was Serejai, you can check the game if you want.
And they did just that, they actively ignored him and considered him scum.
If a player hurts town play as much as you, it's a much better option to kill you(see?i did it again, said kill,I must be scum),rather than letting you spread our deductive power thin.
And you hurt us gum, you hurt us bigtime.
On February 19 2012 15:30 gumshoe wrote:
One of my biggest concerns going into the vote was that it felt like the majority of us were set on the players who had made common individual mistakes. It feels like were not really entertaining the notion that the mafia might actually be playing well because were so set on the idea that they are obvius and awful.
On February 19 2012 15:30 gumshoe wrote:
Theres a chance(I wont say a good one because I got fried for that last time) that one of these intelligent players is mafia
On February 19 2012 15:30 gumshoe wrote:
Because this is my nightmare scenario, I think until we lynch a mafia we need to actively consider the worst case scenario ,the possibility that the mafia has the mental upper hand, that they are intelligent and have come up with plans to adapt if a teammate catches fire.
Each and every one of these statements is designed to throw us into chaos chasing our tails.
It's the pinnacle of a fluff scum post.
No good reasoning, just laying out some "ideas" in order to generally help us in some way.
And that's only from that 1 post. If I count the times where you post non constructively I'll have to write an essay.
Congratulations gumshoe, I just wasted 1 more hour.
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Im posting my reads in case I die tonight. I would have prefered posting this closer towards the end of night, but am posting it now as I have school tomorrow and need to go sleep now, and will not be online from around now to about 5.00 KST (+8).
Gumshoe - Gumshoe being gumshoe as usual. I feel like he is trying to help, although his logic, as pointed out, is pretty bad. I am dont get why he keeps insisting that people who didnt outright attack him and call him mafia are suspisious. I am leaning town on him for the moment. This is a gut read, as he could easily be mafia with a really wierd and flashy playstyle.
Bale000 - Leaning town at the moment. His posts, whilst little, are filled with content, and he is transparent with his reads. He really should post more though.
Alderan - His inital posts were good, and he was also the first person to call out dimmuklok, applying pressure onto him. Even though dimmu has flipped town, I still believe that alderan simply had a wrong read as dimmuklok did seem pretty scummy. His posts also generally make sense, though he, as with bale, needs to post more. As such, I have a town read on him at this point.
Mattchew - I am still suspisious of him for obvious reasons. As said, MannerKiss was already pretty scummy, and his sheep vote on MG feels wierd. Leaning scum.
Steveling - I dont think that the no lynch thing was a scumslip. Seems more like a newbish mistake to me. However, he has been tunneling gumshoe all game. Could be either 1) Town convinced that gumshoe is scum, and annoyed at his posts, or 2) Scum picking the easy targert to push. I am unsure on him right now. Null. Steve, if you are (1), give us some reads. Other than gumshoe. I understand that you might be annoyed with gum's posting right now (understandable), but sometimes you need to step back and take a look at the big picture. Being overly focused on one person may cloud your judgement and could just easily lead to confirmation bias. If you are (2) just claim scum kthxbye.
trackdo0r - He has been transparent with his reads during the first part of the day. However, he has started to post less, and the content of his posts have also dwindled. Im gonna just quote you here:
-Zelbalde has only posted once, giving advice to us and apologizing. This was his biggest flaw last game. We know that you are a busy person zelblade, but posting just once is fine, instead of refilling your posts with more 'sorry' and making you either difficult to read or a scum candidate.
Do what you have asked me to do. Instead of apologising for your inactivity, post your reads, and push them. You have promised them though, and i will be looking forward to seeing them. Null for now.
Janaan - Transparent. His response toward's Hawkins' FOS and gumshoes accusiations (or w/e) was really clear. I like his posts. Leaning town.
TKHawkins - As with Janaan, transparent. Even though I dont really agree with some of his reads and logic, I get the feel of townie trying to help from him. Leaning [green]town[/green].
jaj22 - Has been repetadely calling people out - and has also been making sense. Whilst I dont really agree with his MG read, he is most likely town in my eyes.
Now onto Sloosh and DoYouHas.
As I have stated, I find it extremely suspisious of DYH's actions leading up to the lynch. Though he has given his motivations for advocating the no lynch, I still find it a little wierd, especially regarding his attitude. If he was indeed being stubborn on sloosh as he says, I would have expected him to push harder with something more convincing than this:
If I have not been convincing enough with my case against sl0osh, so be it. Find the majority without me.
Still, his responses against sloosh's case is good and seems valid. This doesnt clear him in my eyes though. Moving on to sloosh, I agree with DYH - he has been really hyprotical regarding DYH, and a good portion of what he accuses DYH of can apply to him as well. What I reallly am interested in would be sloosh's response to this. At this point though, I am fairly convinced that one of them is scum. Doubt that they are both scum, unless this is an elaborate bus which I highly doubt.
As for EchelonTee and MidnightGladius,
The two of them were the main candidates for lynch today before the last minute switch to dimmu since the players present couldnt achieve a majority on either of them. Honestly, I had them pegged as both town. The main reason for my suspisions on ET earlier was for his sheep vote before going away without any sort of reasoning - and I expect more from him due to the fact that he seems to be a good and experienced player. His responses to my suspisions and the many other cases on him are also good, and he clearly addresses them, as well as posting a detailed case on MG. As such, I dropped my vote on him. I have also repetadely stated that MG is probably town - he seems to be playing similar to last game, with a tendancy to post fluff and speculation regarding the setup. I also didnt really find his actions condemning. However, having reread his filter and taken another look at ET's case, he does seem to have a tendancy to push only the easiest targerts. I would really like to see him make a few more reads. Another thing that is suspisious about the both of them is their actions leading up to the lynch. Despite apparently being convinced that each other was scum, they hardly did anything about it, hardly pushing each other. If my strongest scum read was closest to majority along with me, I would definately attempt to get as many as possible to switch off me and onto my scum read. I can understand their reasons for switching, but them not pushing harder seems wierd to me. For now, these two could, imo, flip any way. They could be 2 townies tunneling each other, a townie and a mafia going at each other, or perhaps even 2 mafia bussing each other (doubtful). Either way, my reads on both of them are Null for now.
Well this turned out alot longer than expected. I understand that I dont really have many scum reads atm, but this is all I have now.
Another thing. I believe that all of you should post your reads tonight. If you dont believe in the value of posting your town reads (MG), just post your scum ones than. The reason for this is simple - we want to have as much information from you in case you are shot tonight.
Right ill be going to sleep soon. If any of you have any short questions ill prolly be around for the next 15mins or so and can type out a few quick responses, but dont expect any lengthy or in-depth answers.
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I have PMed an admin.. I wont be able to stay active enough in this game, because of IRL stuff popping up.T_T So I asked for a replacement! No answer yet, but hopefully it's all fixed shortly. GLHF
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Well, it seems that I have a lot to post. I recognize that my play has been pretty sloppy these last time.
@gumshoe: Your logic couldn't be any more flawed. You are basically saying that mafia is organized because they compliment each other. This is fact very inaccurate. Because:
1) The worst thing that organized mafia might do is openly expressing about their teammates. I'd rather expect them to pick off single targets to jump/defend at odd times while not catching attention or being linked to other players.
2) Those posts were roughly half into the game, when everyone is trying to prove they're town. Yes, at that time those were my reads, but now, as the game has progressed more, I have different opinions that I'll be addressing in the next paragraphs.
I insist that your ways of scum hunting are not effective and the only thing that you can get out of this is more people pointing their eyes on you, more chaos and more place to mafia to hide.
OK, now to more serious matters...
My following thoughts are directed to DoYouHas.
I've changed my view on him. If you think that he has been contributing on the discussion, I think you need to take a look closer to his behavior. His play so far has mostly consisted of:
1) Convincing us that gumshoe is town
2) Responding to almost every sloosh's post and draw suspicion upon him.
For the first part:
On February 18 2012 09:51 DoYouHas wrote:Here is my thinking on gumshoe so far. I think he is a townie. gumshoe has done a number of things that are not helping the town. The have been pointed out quite a few times so I won't go into depth about them now. Things like derailing, cluttering, unclear-ness, lying, a few inconsistencies. Yet in spite of this my intuition keeps pulling me towards a townie read for him. Here are a few of the things that are informing this stance: First and foremost is gumshoe's reckless and active posting style. I just don't see him as someone who is checking his posts with team members or even as someone who is going to a mafia QT and discussing his moves. He strikes me as playing by the seat of his pants, which is something I would not expect of scum on day1. This is supported by the little inconsistencies in his posting (I am thinking specifically about the one trackd00r pointed out) Secondly, gumshoe has both continued to defend himself about the poll while admitting that it makes him look scummy. I would expect a couple things from a scum put in a similar situation. Either he would play it off as a ploy and a joke in order to get people talking (which he did somewhat) and then try to put it behind him, or he would take some early shots at throwing suspicion onto someone else. He did not try to put it behind him, he even says that you would be crazy not to be suspicious of him for the poll. He took a long long time to start throwing actual suspicions around which I think is a long time to wait when you are scum and in the spotlight early. Like I said at the start, this is a stance based on intuition, not solid logic. So feel free to pick at it. I'll leave you with a bit of information that I've been keeping track of. People who have been defending/supporting gumshoe (soft or otherwise): + Show Spoiler +struck out names are for those who have switched DoYouHas, Alderan, Janaan, TKHawkins, MidnightGladiusPeople who have been attacking/suspicious of gumshoe:MidnightGladius, blae000, ET, Steveling(kinda), trackd00r, sl0osh, Dimmuklok, jaj22, DoYouHas
Why were you trying so hard to defend gumshoe? I don't see the point of proving he is green when you said before that he had little contribution. Plus, posting lists of people going pro-against doesn't really give us a push as town to kill mafia. Specially when you later said that these kind of posting is not helpful:
On February 19 2012 04:57 DoYouHas wrote:
TKHawkins: Not much to say here. I dislike his first post as it was just a conglomerate of posts others made before with a poor assumption about scum tagged on (an assumption that would exclude TKHawkins from the pool of possible scum of course). Then, in his last post he started following the format of listing everyone with basic reads on them. THIS NEEDS TO STOP. Posting lists is not nearly as helpful as posting thoughtful analysis on a few people. If posting lists becomes standard then we are giving scum an easy way of making long posts that stay shallow.
The correlation of these two ideas seem very suspicious to me. What do you think?
Then you still kept track of gum's play. You point out his mistakes. I don't feel that you are doing it to help gumshoe to post better, but instead to appear to us as someone constantly watching him, like a babysitter.
On February 18 2012 15:45 DoYouHas wrote:
Just finished reading after being away for a while. Gum, for the sake of my eyes, when you quote walls of text, put them in spoilers. If you are doing analysis on that wall of text, link the whole thing then just quote the relevant parts. Also, the preview button is your friend. I'm going to go back over what I just read again and let it sink in a bit.
I dislike that no one directly addressed my defense of gumshoe, with the exception of ET. I wrote it to be picked at and debated, but you all seem content hammering away at each other. Making big cases and walls of text is nice, but spending all your time on them is going to blind you. I know from personal experience.
My schedule is going to be very busy tomorrow. I will be unavailable starting at 4-3 hours before the deadline and remain so for something like 8-9 hours.
In reality, people did not addressed your defense of gumshoe because they are actually more interested in killing mafia, which is the goal of the game and what we should be really doing. I still wonder, why do you worry so much about gum?
On February 18 2012 16:22 DoYouHas wrote:People obviously have strong feelings about you gum. I find it strange that the only hard second party defense of you would be ignored by your accusers. There are any number of things to debate in that post, not the least of which is the obvious WIFOM in the second point. I still think it is a valid point. But I was defending you based off what I would assume a mafia would do in the same situation as you. Maybe people think that my points simply didn't deserve discussion, which would be strange with how hard Steveling, Midnight, and Dimmuklok are coming after you. The only way it has been discussed that I have seen is through statements similar to, "I can't believe people are ignoring gum's anti-town play". Moving on... Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 15:52 gumshoe wrote:
As a suggestion, for the upcoming votes, there seems to be two major posting suspects, me and Ech. I can almost assure you that were not both mafia.
[...]
so the best options are either lynch me or ech because we were opposed to one another at the very start and were the most suspicious posters, or vote for hawk because he still hasn't posted.
This is another bad plan gum -_-. I have already explained why I think you are town, and I am far from convinced of ET's scumminess. So from my perspective the only value in your plan is a lynch for information, which is dumb. There is still time on the clock to take apart all the cases that have been presented by quite a few people and really try and get a sense of what is going on. And should that fail I am actually pretty content with landing on someone like MannerKiss or another fluff poster. We need to lynch according to the most likely to be scum, I will try to make my case for who that is early tomorrow so there will still be time for voting.
When I read that bolded phrase in your quote, I was expecting to you to drop off a little bit about gum and talk about something else. But yet, you still kept talking about gum.
Now regarding to your play against sloosh, I thought for some time you are just being blinded for every thing he posts.
You built up so many high expectations him that now every little inconsistency in his played leads to more and more attacks to him.
To say something, your suspicion and posterior voting to him was because you wanted him to play in a way that you feel comfortable. You didn't like his attitude in his clash with ET, yet you lifted your suspicion against him. Then you went again. You haven't left a good analysis in any other player since then.
It's been enough with sloosh. I highly doubt that you'll get a majority voting for him when if you don't back up your arguments not because why you don't like his play to your criteria, but rather you see his anti-town play.
On February 19 2012 04:57 DoYouHas wrote:sl0osh: It may be that sl0osh just has not had time to sit down and really work things out yet, but what he has posted so far still makes me suspicious of him. I already made my original post against him, and that has largely been dealt with. He provided an explanation, and I thought it was reasonable. What isn't reasonable is his extreme lack of taking a stance. I divide his responses into 3 things: responses to pressure, explanation of the game, expressing his own views under his own volition. It is VERY troubling to me how much of the content he has posted fits into those first two categories. Explanation of the game: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)Responses to pressure: ET vs sl0osh (1) (2) (3) (4)Expressing his own views: (1) (2) (3)Take note that the only person he has expressed an opinion on that didn't first attack him is gumshoe, and even those opinions are non-committal. sl0osh has done almost exactly what ET has done, except he hasn't provided us with any stances that we can later use against him. I refuse to believe that with 4hours left in the day, sl0osh has no opinions or cases worth posting. He is just trying to slide by, I won't let him. ##Vote: sl0osh
He's promoted a case now (yours) and has already given opinions at this moment. I ask again: How is he hurting town?
You have only made one post with your reads.
I think that you are focusing in single targets to draw out suspicion while keeping discussion with them in order to show your town play, which is not what something that really help us.
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I'm heading to church in a couple of minutes, so a more complete response to trackd00r is going to have to wait until I get back. The one point I will explain right now is how I have been acting towards gumshoe. I have been working under the assumption that he is town. So instead of using the flaws in his posts to build a case against him. I have been pointing them out with why they are wrong in hopes that he will learn quickly and become an asset to the town. This is something that I did multiple times to Simberto and slOosh in NMM3. It isn't scummy by any stretch of the imagination.
I will address your points more thoroughly when I get back trackd00r. And I will get more of my reads out there for you to look at.
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Sigh, I'm just gonna go back through the filters a hundred times or so and maybe read some old games. My stuff from now on will be much shorter and hopefully more constructed, DoYou your argument for Matthew is very solid, I retract my accusation that you drew suspicion away from him. In fact earlier manner said you had a pretty strong town vibe, why would he say that if you pressed/accused him and he was mafia? Sounds like his first post was just a slip.
If anyone has any questions ask. Otherwise I'll start making a case for who I DONT think is mafia.
when does night end?
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steveling, whats your opinion on DYH?
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On February 19 2012 15:40 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 11:39 jaj22 wrote:
Gah, just realised why that lynch was dumb, which is silly because I figured it last night. Before the last rush, the distribution of the votes and the active player count meant that it was essentially impossible to lynch scum. The correct choice was to no-lynch.
Off to flagellate myself and then sleep. We do the 20-hour dummy voting run on day 2.
Hindsight bias. If you figured it out last night you should have said so, so you either didn't believe that you were right or you withheld information from us.
It was speculative reasoning at the time, but I hinted at it in these two posts:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13573775
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13574870
I'll explain the eventual reasoning because it's important for the conclusion. Before the late compromise switch, we had 4-5 players each on ET and MG who had no interest in switching to the other, plus another 6 votes scattered between DYH, Sloosh, Gumshoe and DimmuKlok. We had maybe 6-7 players who were active and willing to switch votes. Unless by some fluke scum were all absent for the lynch, we needed scum support to reach 8 votes.
The trouble is that this is extremely likely to happen again, because it's a consequence of the lynch deadline. We really need to be narrowing down the field of candidates long before the deadline so that every townie has a chance to make their vote count.
The plan: We set a dummy deadline 27 hours after the start of day 2, and we try to get a "lynch" by then. Anyone not treating the deadline seriously should be considered scummy.
Someone please agree with this plan before I go completely insane.
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I agree for what thats worth.
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On February 20 2012 02:52 gumshoe wrote:
If anyone has any questions ask. Otherwise I'll start making a case for who I DONT think is mafia.
I'm not getting on your case, but don't do this. It is of no use to the town to discuss who is not mafia as it will only serve to confuse, and then even if a consensus is reached it gives mafia a blatant target to kill.
Work through in your own head about who is town. Pointing out flaws in the arguments of those attacking someone you believe to be town is fine, but lists of town players is generally bad news bears.
I've got work today till 7 or 8 EST (weekdays are much better for me than weekends in terms of activity).
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EPT
