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On August 24 2011 05:47 Jackal58 wrote: Who are you Smurfing for Ferryman? Lol, not smurfing, I just actually took the time to read the guides and previous games before jumping in and playing a game.
What do you think of my accusation of wiggles? Am I off base?
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oh right, silly me, I forgot the most important thing
##Vote: Mr.Wiggles
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On August 24 2011 05:54 TheFerryman wrote:Lol, not smurfing, I just actually took the time to read the guides and previous games before jumping in and playing a game. What do you think of my accusation of wiggles? Am I off base? If it wasn't Wiggles I'd say you're spot on. But Wiggles is the only one here that I'm aware of that has won a game as the SK before. But I also used this rationale to talk myself into believing Wiggles couldn't be scum once when the scum team was playing like 2 year old kids on Valium. I don't believe Wiggles to be the 3rd party atm. I would say Palmar has more likelihood of that but that isn't saying much right now either. If you're right kudos to you. I'd rather wait a bit and see what develops. If Mr. Wiggles is town he is probably the best player we have.
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On August 24 2011 06:06 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 05:54 TheFerryman wrote:On August 24 2011 05:47 Jackal58 wrote: Who are you Smurfing for Ferryman? Lol, not smurfing, I just actually took the time to read the guides and previous games before jumping in and playing a game. What do you think of my accusation of wiggles? Am I off base? If it wasn't Wiggles I'd say you're spot on. But Wiggles is the only one here that I'm aware of that has won a game as the SK before. But I also used this rationale to talk myself into believing Wiggles couldn't be scum once when the scum team was playing like 2 year old kids on Valium. I don't believe Wiggles to be the 3rd party atm. I would say Palmar has more likelihood of that but that isn't saying much right now either. If you're right kudos to you. I'd rather wait a bit and see what develops. If Mr. Wiggles is town he is probably the best player we have. Hmm, is there any reason, other than pure meta why you think I might be wrong? I mean I don't really see what relevance wiggle's victory in survivor mafia has to do with the fact that his play right now is exactly in line with they way the EH is supposed to play.
What am I missing?
I agree wiggles is a strong player, but that doesn't mean we should be afraid to lynch him, not with such a damming post.
I'd really appreciate it if you would flesh out why you don't think wiggles is third party.
Thanks.
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On August 24 2011 06:12 TheFerryman wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 06:06 Jackal58 wrote:On August 24 2011 05:54 TheFerryman wrote:On August 24 2011 05:47 Jackal58 wrote: Who are you Smurfing for Ferryman? Lol, not smurfing, I just actually took the time to read the guides and previous games before jumping in and playing a game. What do you think of my accusation of wiggles? Am I off base? If it wasn't Wiggles I'd say you're spot on. But Wiggles is the only one here that I'm aware of that has won a game as the SK before. But I also used this rationale to talk myself into believing Wiggles couldn't be scum once when the scum team was playing like 2 year old kids on Valium. I don't believe Wiggles to be the 3rd party atm. I would say Palmar has more likelihood of that but that isn't saying much right now either. If you're right kudos to you. I'd rather wait a bit and see what develops. If Mr. Wiggles is town he is probably the best player we have. Hmm, is there any reason, other than pure meta why you think I might be wrong? I mean I don't really see what relevance wiggle's victory in survivor mafia has to do with the fact that his play right now is exactly in line with they way the EH is supposed to play. What am I missing? I agree wiggles is a strong player, but that doesn't mean we should be afraid to lynch him, not with such a damming post. I'd really appreciate it if you would flesh out why you don't think wiggles is third party. Thanks. Purely based on Meta. Like I said that assumption on my part was wrong before too.
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Wiggles, his post was talking about a pro-EA strategy, but it doesn´t mean he really wanted to implement it, just watch reactions. Anyone insisting it as a great plan is suspicious because it doesn´t take long to figure out the problems with it. Either he´s playing risky Town or crappy EA, and if he´s a veteran, risky Town seems more likely.
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The one thing that feels really forced in Ferryman's post is the fact that he for some reason assumes that specifically making long policy posts at the start of the game is optimal play for the EA. I have no idea why this would be the case.
Like, I personally never dig into that policy thing, I just wait till people start arguing about them and try to pick out the scum. But for some reason you feel that it's somehow a necessity for the EA to play that way, ie: you're artificially inflating your argument, which is weird to me.
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...and right away wiggles and palmar make themselves the topics of the day.
On August 24 2011 01:12 Palmar wrote: Right.
This is not what happened. My win condition is to eliminate all threats to town. I did not slip, you're trying to manufacture evidence out of something that doesn't exist. My joke can't even be shrugged off as bad town play because nothing exists in it that would indicate I'm not town. This post sets off a lot of alarm bells for me. So many that I'm just gonna go ahead and ##vote Palmar
Wiggle's plan is awful and super-pro EA, yeah, but the more interesting part of his posts to me is how much he's pushing that everyone should breadcrumb. This is my third try on typing up something about breadcrumbs, and I'm not at all sure what to think about them anymore. They can be really useful in piecing everything together lategame, yeah, but I'm really worried about how they can be used to manipulate town. Breadcrumbing pro-town stuff all game long and then revealing it all when it's LYLO or something is a really good plan for smart scum. So our only option would be to look back at people's crumbs after they die, which again leaves town open to manipulation if scum can make some really good connections that aren't there. So basically, the only way we should trust any sort of breadcrumbing scheme if if the person who made the crumbs claims them and then flips town. And, if that's the case... why do we even need breadcrumbs? I understand that, especially in a game like this where the blues' actions are so critical, it's really appealing to try to set up a system where everyone can deduce what happened, but looking at the setup, I don't think it's a good idea in this game.
alright I hope that made sense. One more thing: What happens if an insane doctor visits EA?
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On Meta, and Wiggles.
So, Jackal, meta makes you think wiggles is not a 3rd party, does it? Lets look at the a game where wiggle has been third party in the past, and compare his behavior in that game to his behavior here. (I am disregarding the game where he was an assassin, since in that game his goal was not to appear pro-town, but rather maintain a scummy profile to avoid being shot by the mafia, and survivor mafia, where he was the only anti-town player in an open PM game)
Lets take a look at a post in Insane mafia 2, hosted by LSB, where wiggles was part of a third party faction. Here is a sample post. Some background, for those who don't feel like figuring out what happened. Bumatlarge had just claimed to be part of the town aligned circle of blues, who all knew each other and each other's alignment, in a bid to gain mayorship, no one counterclaimed him, which basically meant he was confirmed town, and a dt to boot. Kavdragon, a member of wiggle's third party team was also vying for the mayorship. Now read the post.
+ Show Spoiler +On March 25 2011 05:54 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Ok, so here's my thoughts on the mayorship:
For me, this is really between Kav and bum.
At the moment, I'm trying to figure out how much I want to trust bum's blue claim. So far, he is uncontested, which possibly bodes well for him being a true blue. However, as others have stated, and I've been considering, there is still the possibility of his being scum, even with no counterclaim. It really comes down to the likelihood of Blues wanting to make a 1-1 trade so early in the game, and before roles have even been given. I am assuming, since everyone will have a power, that blues will be much stronger than greens. There is also a disparity between the number of powerful town roles (Blues) and scum in this game, and while I personally feel analysis is a far stronger tool, most of the TL towns I've been in have been reverent of Blue's power, often to the point of reliance (Eg: XXXV). So just applying metagame, it seems unusual a blue would be willing to put himself out there so quickly and prominently.
I see this either as a power move by the blues (as most people are assuming), or as a cunning play by scum. A lot of my suspicion comes from timing. Bum claimed before night 0 is over, and I would have trusted it a lot more if it was on Day 1, as he would have his role already. For example, bum could be scum, but conceivably a blue wouldn't bother to contest him until they get their roles, so they can use the weakest combination of role/player on their team to out him, which makes it harder for them, considering the amount of time bum has been uncontested, which can also be used for a WIFOM argument from him.
Kav on the other hand, has no real assurances that he is not scum. So far, his posting has seemed pro-town, but he hasn't really expounded on any of his views besides that he wants to stay alive to analyze and direct the town. I've had first-hand experience with him as mayor, working closely with him in XXXVI, so I know that he is a very capable and active player. Before I'd vote for him though, I'd need to hear more about what he'd do Day 1 lynch, and what other things he'd try to do with his longevity.
So, in short, I feel both Bum and Kav would make good mayors. Kav based on personal experience with him, and Bum on the condition of being blue. I'm still trying to evaluate the likelihood of a Night 0 blue claim though, because I really don't like the timing, and would like to see if there are counterclaims Day 1. Hopefully if Bum isn't blue, someone would eventually counterclaim, because blues wouldn't want to let scum become mayor. I also don't think the lack of Night 0 counterclaims really strengthens his claim in any way, because as I've said, blues probably wouldn't counterclaim until Day 1 anyways, when they can make a much better choice of counterclaiming player. Notice one thing, the obvious fact was that bum *had* to be a blue, else the blue faction would have conterclaimed. However third party wiggles isn't afraid to push a anti-town agenda to further his own team. 3rd party wiggles isn't afraid to push his own plans, against the town. Also notice how a third party wiggles is really good at ending his post with dodging responsibility, his whole post casts doubts on bum, yet at the end of the post he backs down, while still supporting his agenda of getting his buddy elected.
Lets compare that to his first post this game where wiggles, pushes a anti-town agenda and at the end backs down to dodge responsibility. The similarity between these two posts is... stunning. For the sake of fairness lets look at what Wiggle's normal town play looks like, with a post from BCs Arkham Asylum, where wiggles was Zsasz a vigilante.
+ Show Spoiler +On July 18 2011 10:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Ok, so let's get this started! First things first, let's lay out some things we want to achieve, and some guidelines. A pro-town atmosphereThis normally goes without saying, but it often bears repeating. If we want to catch scum, we need to have the proper environment for scum hunting and for communicating with each other. This means a couple things: - Promoting scum hunting.
- Not having pointless arguments
- Actively contributing
- All that jazz
Basically, we want to keep the thread as clean as possible, because chaos best serves mafia, not town. If you really don't know what to do, there's town guides. I'm not going to write one here, because I'm too lazy, and don't consider myself experienced enough to try. However, I am going to go through the three points above, as I think they are very important. We always want people to scum-hunt. There's never an excuse not to scum-hunt; everyone can do it. This provides us with many benefits. First, it's the primary method for actually finding scum. It also means that people have to give their actual thoughts, and have to come up with things beyond "I agree". This gives us information, and information is good. It lets us know what you're thinking, and it puts pressure on mafia to have to contribute. Also, forcing mafia to scum-hunt means that there's a good chance of catching them just based on their analysis, because it's hard to find people who are scummy, when you know they aren't scum. Next, we want to avoid bickering. This goes hand in hand with keeping the thread clean. This is different from actually debating with people, and you should be able to tell the difference between rationality, and NO U. If anyone is having a pointless argument, they will be asked to stop. It doesn't help town, only mafia. Lastly, we want people to contribute. There's a posting limit of 5 posts per day/night, but that doesn't give you permission to skirt that limit. It's easy for mafia to hide amongst lurkers, and beyond that, lurkers are nearly impossible to analyze. So, contribute. This doesn't mean make tons of pointless one-liners, it means providing actual thoughts, analysis, and content. You can do it, I believe in you. And if you don't, we can always just ask a vig to shoot you. We don't want people to lurk. CluesThere's clues in this game. However, all clue analysis MUST MUST MUST be backed up by post analysis. Before you post the clue analysis too. The reason for this, is that clues will most likely point to all kills. this means that some of the clues are going to point to vigs, some will point to third parties, and the others will point to mafia. Accidentally outing a vig because you solved the clues about them is bad. So, if you think someone's attached to a clue, go back and re-read their posts. If you think they look scummy, then post an analysis that contains the clue analysis. If you think they're town, just hold onto your analysis. Clue-analysis should always be used to supplement an actual behavioural analysis. It should never be the main point for calling someone scummy. In other words: Clues pointing towards a person does not equal scum. Third PartiesLooking at the third parties, here's what we want: -We want Joker to die. -We want Batman to kill Joker. -This means that Batman wins, and should hopefully be removed from the game, also removing Ra’as Al Ghul who can no longer achieve his victory condition. This is the optimal way the third party part of the game will go. We want Batman to kill Joker before Ra'as can kill Batman, so that we don't have to deal with Joker ourselves. So, if you think someone's acting like an SK, don't be afraid to point it out, as this should help Batman achieve his win-con, and let us get on with the rest of the game. If Joker is lynched, is Batman removed from the game? If Batman is removed from the game, is Ra'as removed from the game?Thoughts? Disagreements? Let's get this rolling.
Lets look at the key differences between this type of early game post and wiggle's post in this game. What does it talk about? It talks about catching scum, about things that are relevant to the main objective, defeating the mafia. What does it do that the other post doesn't?
1.) It gives concrete, powerful advice about things that need to be said, and things that are important to avoding chaos. Is that even mentioned in his post here? Of course not, this game, he could care less about a good scum-hunting atmosphere, since all he has to do is *appear* town, the actual atmosphere is irrelevant, since if he can't find mafia he'll fabricate a case. The post from arkham is attempting to be helpful
2.)This post owns up to what it is trying to do, that is lead and organize the town, with no excuses made for it. Wiggles shows no hesitation, no "well, actually its ok if you bicker, that might help hunt scum too" in this post wiggles owns up to his post. there is no hesitation, just ownership
3.) He doesn't focus excessively on one topic he talks about a bunch of different things. He reveals his mind is not focused around a particular target, he covers everything unlike his post this game that focuses on the two elements that he is most focused on.
Wiggle's meta fits perfectly with the way third party wiggle plays, pushing his objectives while backtracking so it looks like he isn't. It looks nothing like his town meta, where he doesn't have a single minded focus, and actually owns up to his posts, while trying to propose things that are actually helpful, rather than a objectivity bad plan.
Sorry Jackal, but your meta read is wrong, Wiggles is a Horror, without a shadow of doubt.
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Care to explain what alarms it sets off? You seem to be perfectly fine with throwing down a vote based on nothing but "setting off alarms".
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On August 24 2011 07:19 Palmar wrote: The one thing that feels really forced in Ferryman's post is the fact that he for some reason assumes that specifically making long policy posts at the start of the game is optimal play for the EA. I have no idea why this would be the case.
Like, I personally never dig into that policy thing, I just wait till people start arguing about them and try to pick out the scum. But for some reason you feel that it's somehow a necessity for the EA to play that way, ie: you're artificially inflating your argument, which is weird to me. Its a meta argument, Wiggles almost always makes long policy posts early on. Hence why if he is EA he is *still* going to make long policy posts. If *you* were the EA then I wouldn't expect you to make long policy posts, nor would i expect it as scum, or as town. I wouldn't expect it from you at all, you favor the more aggressive "Random Voting Phase" which I think is useless.
"Optimal Play" varies on a player by player basis.
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EBWOP: "Optimal Play" varies on a player by player basis, but the *objectives* remain the same. In the case of wiggles, its to appear pro-town while pushing his agenda. Wiggles achieves it by making long policy posts, you would do it in a different way. In the end what matters is the objective and the mentality behind it.
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On August 24 2011 07:35 Palmar wrote: Care to explain what alarms it sets off? You seem to be perfectly fine with throwing down a vote based on nothing but "setting off alarms".
You made a post containing something that could be taken as scummy, tnk pointed it out, you go 'derp' and tell him to stop looking for things that aren't there. So far so good.
Then, once tnk pushes you a bit, you get really defensive. That post I quoted just doesn't feel like a post that a comfortable player makes.
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On August 24 2011 07:59 TheFerryman wrote: EBWOP: "Optimal Play" varies on a player by player basis, but the *objectives* remain the same. In the case of wiggles, its to appear pro-town while pushing his agenda. Wiggles achieves it by making long policy posts, you would do it in a different way. In the end what matters is the objective and the mentality behind it. Really. Who are you smurfing for?
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On August 24 2011 05:38 TheFerryman wrote:Ladies and Gentelmen. The Eldricht horror has just successfully ousted himself. Well done wiggles. Let me ask you gentelmen a question, what is the horror afraid of? Two things, 1.) the lynch, as it kills him and makes him incapable of winning, and conversely town losing too fast, since then he won't be able to infect everyone in time. This means that the horror is going to try to present an organized, pro-town stance and appearance, so expect things like long policy/mechanics posts and attempts at directing town attention early in the game, and later focus on scumhunting, probably successfully getting scum lynched. He obviously wants to draw scum hits, since they increase the number of insane people in the town. All this means he is going to try to *appear* town, while pushing to resolve his fear #2 2.) The psychologist, as every night the psychologist is alive the horror's wincondition becomes a little harder to carry out. For this reason expect plans that involve the psychologist claiming, and plans that require mass claims. Remember the sooner the psychologist is dead, the sooner the horror can carry out his wincondition. With that in mind, lets take a good look at Wiggles first post of the game. My comments in spoilers inside the quote Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 02:51 Mr. Wiggles wrote:##Vote: Eiii Where you at? Killing Eldricht would be nice to get rid of the third party, but it's not the biggest priority for town on Day 1, because it takes him a while to achieve his win condition. (Like at least 7 nights if greens aren't killed/lynched, unrealistic, I know, but just an example) As well, we have the psychologist who can cure insanity. + Show Spoiler + Right here, he is already downplaying the danger the horror poses to the town, I'm betting that if he is ousted later in the game he'll try explain how lynching the horror is a "waste of a lynch" when we could be hitting "real scum". Also, notice how he is *already* taking about the psychologist. Its the number one thing on his mind. He couldn't even get past the first paragraph without worrying about it So, to talk about the set-up a little, do people think it would be a good idea for the psychologist to claim his target at the end of night 1? It makes the psychologist claim early, but that way if he dies, then we have probably found the Eldricht Horror. The only way this wouldn't be the case, would be if mafia shot him, but then he could just claim earlier. (Because mafia don't really want to shoot him right away without reason, as he keeps them from losing the game to insanity as well) + Show Spoiler + Look at this magnificent plan to get his hands on the psychologist, for a 1/13 chance of losing outright he gets to kill his #1 threat to victory. Plus, he is going to be so "pro-town" the worrying about the psychologist checking *him* won't be an issue. Look at point 1 and 2 above, here is wiggles, promoting a plan that reveals the psychologist yet appears pro-town. this is the giveaway that wiggles has only one focus. Notice how the mafia is only mentioned in passing and the medic isn't even a concern. Its because to wiggles those things aren't important, in his mind those take second place to the much more relevant psychologist that stands in his way, and of course to appearing town There's both Pro's and Con's to this, and it depends on the relative threat that we perceive the Eldricht Horror as. Pros: -Lets us catch the Eldricht Horror more easily, knowing as soon as the Psychologist dies. -Let's us coordinate the Psychologist a little (don't know if this is necessary) Cons: -Mafia know not to shoot the Psychologist, reducing the pool of townies (1 person so not that terrible) -Mafia can screw with town by killing the Psychologist and trying for a mislynch on his target. Personally, I don't really think it's worth it after actually writing out the Pros and Cons, but I don't think I'm going to delete this post because I spent like 5 minutes writing it, and it provides a good start for actual discussion. In my opinion, a better option is actually having the psychologist bread-crumb his visits, so that way, if he ever dies and flips, then we have a list of players cleared of being the Eldricht Horror, and we have a possible target for who the Third Party actually is. + Show Spoiler + and now he is backtracking, while still pushing for the psychologist to "breadcrumb", which wiggles, our mega clue master will be able to catch. Notice how he isn't even supporting his own plan, its a "point of discussion". In other words, he is hoping a foolish townie is going to pick it up and run with it, or even better a stupid psychologist is going to think "huh, this isn't bad, I better do as wiggles suggested". A real townie, someone who cares about whether the town loses or wins is not going to propose what he considers a bad plan, especially not a veteran player like wiggles, who knows that as a rule of thumb, towns are stupid and tend to subscribe to bad ideas. BY proposing a poor idea as a "point of discussion" wiggles is pushing all the objectives of a smart horror. Discuss! + Show Spoiler +Wiggles is the edritch horror.
This is a strong case for wiggles being the horror. I think that we should focus on the mafia first and the horror second. because our win condition is all threats to the town are eliminated while the scum is just to be equal to the town aligned players which means we are essentially 9v3. mafia has one kp so assuming worst case scenario we lose 2 per day/night cycle so 7v3 second day 5v3 third day. If we reach the case of 5v3 i propose we make it go to a no lynch so that after the mafia kill someone it will be 4v3 instead of instead of a 5v3. I think we should do these in all cases such as 4v2 make it a 3v2 and 1 v 3 make it a 1v2.
If we find a good mafia target for a day one lynch i will vote for the mafia because if it gets to where we would abstain for voting for a more town favored lylo we can lynch the horror instead or just save the horror for a day we don't have a good mafia suspect(that could be today but it is still too soon to tell) ##vote Mr. Wiggles I will change my vote if we find a good mafia to lynch
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On August 24 2011 08:15 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 07:59 TheFerryman wrote: EBWOP: "Optimal Play" varies on a player by player basis, but the *objectives* remain the same. In the case of wiggles, its to appear pro-town while pushing his agenda. Wiggles achieves it by making long policy posts, you would do it in a different way. In the end what matters is the objective and the mentality behind it. Really. Who are you smurfing for? If he is new I wanna know where he came from really awesome posts.
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On August 24 2011 08:18 Sevryn wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 08:15 Jackal58 wrote:On August 24 2011 07:59 TheFerryman wrote: EBWOP: "Optimal Play" varies on a player by player basis, but the *objectives* remain the same. In the case of wiggles, its to appear pro-town while pushing his agenda. Wiggles achieves it by making long policy posts, you would do it in a different way. In the end what matters is the objective and the mentality behind it. Really. Who are you smurfing for? If he is new I wanna know where he came from really awesome posts.
he's not new, he's read way too many games for that to make sense.
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On August 24 2011 08:20 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 08:18 Sevryn wrote:On August 24 2011 08:15 Jackal58 wrote:On August 24 2011 07:59 TheFerryman wrote: EBWOP: "Optimal Play" varies on a player by player basis, but the *objectives* remain the same. In the case of wiggles, its to appear pro-town while pushing his agenda. Wiggles achieves it by making long policy posts, you would do it in a different way. In the end what matters is the objective and the mentality behind it. Really. Who are you smurfing for? If he is new I wanna know where he came from really awesome posts. he's not new, he's read way too many games for that to make sense. he claims to be new so either hes a smurfy smurf or he read all the games before playing one.
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On August 24 2011 07:23 Eiii wrote: alright I hope that made sense. One more thing: What happens if an insane doctor visits EA? EA can only be killed by a lynch, so nothing happens.
On breadcrumbing, without info-roles, it´s not that usefull in this game, and is more likely to attract attention from scum and EA, or plunge us into a WIFOM swamp, than actually aid Town. I advice against it, but it´s up to the player.
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On August 24 2011 08:20 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 08:18 Sevryn wrote:On August 24 2011 08:15 Jackal58 wrote:On August 24 2011 07:59 TheFerryman wrote: EBWOP: "Optimal Play" varies on a player by player basis, but the *objectives* remain the same. In the case of wiggles, its to appear pro-town while pushing his agenda. Wiggles achieves it by making long policy posts, you would do it in a different way. In the end what matters is the objective and the mentality behind it. Really. Who are you smurfing for? If he is new I wanna know where he came from really awesome posts. he's not new, he's read way too many games for that to make sense. Instead of speculating about whether or not I'm a smurf, try reading my case and commenting on it.
You can assume whatever you want. I'm new, I was waiting for a smallish game, so I took the opportunity to read through as many games as possible.
Now focus on things that actually *matter*.
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