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On July 13 2012 05:25 Hapahauli wrote:
Jingle, I understand that you've stopped caring for this game a while ago, but don't ruin it for the rest of us.
If you'll notice, my vote wasn't the only one on Bass.
Anyway, I think if you're going to suggest that's what's happening, you should consider saying something to the people who actually ruined it? Like the people who basically decided to thump people over the head with their superiority complexes and tell them their play wasn't welcome here? Who then have the sheer, toxic, egocentric gall to suggest they suddenly have some sort of fucking right to tell me who to vote for?
Kiss my ass.
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On July 12 2012 20:53 Lazermonkey wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 20:18 Evulrabbitz wrote:No, he is implying that since we were both wrong about Zen and Release, regular scum hunting is bad. Note also that he did in fact IGNORE that we managed to lynch Hope based on regular scum hunting. So basically we have had 50% success with regular scum hunting. 50% chance of success, where have I heard that before...hmmm?
So you are saying he downplayed that the lynch on Hopeless was successful. Really, I think your post was just a huge misunderstanding on the word "downplay". He is saying that we should rely on a 50% chance (which isn't even correct, but let's ignore that for now)rather then regular scum hunting becuase we have been wrong about Release and Zen. This is while we have actually had 50% correct lynches based on regular scum hunting.
About 50% IS correct. We can only estimate this number based on how scummy Bass has been acting.
Second, I am not saying scum hunting unreliable because you guys were wrong about Release and Zen.
I am saying: scum hunting is inherently not as reliable. Look back at you experiences. Sometimes we are right, but often we are not. I was just citing Release and Zen as examples to support that scum hunting is NATURALLY not that reliable. Not close to 50%.
Even if we were right every single time so far, that does not change the fact that scum hunting is unreliable. Just like, when the coin lands heads 3 times, the probability land head is still 50%.
And while we technically lynched correct 50% of the times, we were correct in our scum hunting 33% of the time. ZenMan was about to get lynched - until he claimed medic. This counts toward unsuccessful scum hunting.
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Actually, 25% correct on scumhunting, Harry. Don't forget N1 when they were planning to lynch me D2. That's some real good odds right there. 50/50 sounds great by comparison.
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On July 13 2012 02:18 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 22:25 The_Zen_Man wrote:
Correct me if i am wrong, but is there not one miller and one scum that show red for dt check. Therefore, there has to be a 50% chance for him being scum. Analysis is good, but it does not increace or decreace the percentage in any way. This means that there is a 50% chance for him being scum, not "way below" that, as the monkey above me stated. It is not a 50/50 chance! *Foaming at the mouth* Calling it 50/50 is a vast oversimplification of things, especially if he's acting pro town. He's either 100% mafia, or 100% miller. Based on his pro-town actions, what do you think is more likely?
It IS 50/50, except for the minor adjustments based on "scum hunting".
He is either mafia or miller, OF COURSE. But 50% of the time he is 100% mafia, and 50% of the time he is 100% miller. In other words, he is mafia 50% of the time.
I already said this.
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On July 13 2012 05:43 JingleHell wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2012 05:25 Hapahauli wrote:
Jingle, I understand that you've stopped caring for this game a while ago, but don't ruin it for the rest of us. If you'll notice, my vote wasn't the only one on Bass. Anyway, I think if you're going to suggest that's what's happening, you should consider saying something to the people who actually ruined it? Like the people who basically decided to thump people over the head with their superiority complexes and tell them their play wasn't welcome here? Who then have the sheer, toxic, egocentric gall to suggest they suddenly have some sort of fucking right to tell me who to vote for? Kiss my ass. Lol, this is modkill material ; )
So you actually confess that the only reason you vote for Bass is to fuck with me?
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
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There's something about this game a lot of people seem to be forgetting. There is an intentional environment of mutual distrust. Due to the scenario, it literally does not matter what one person knows, if they can't convince other people of it.
There's a rather key social aspect to this game. If your method of play isn't conducive to people trusting you, respecting you, or having any reason whatsoever to work with you, the failure is yours as much as anyone else's. I know people like to just pick a scapegoat, since nobody likes to be wrong, but really, if you can't sell a lynch, you might as well not make a read.
That's the real reason I haven't bothered with this thread much, because every time I say something, I get shouted down. Making reads would be a waste of my time, I've essentially been told as much, and I'm not going to trust or work with people who play that way, so they may not like where my vote lands. Welcome to the game, and enjoy the knowledge of how you failed yourselves.
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On July 13 2012 06:00 Lazermonkey wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2012 05:43 JingleHell wrote:On July 13 2012 05:25 Hapahauli wrote:
Jingle, I understand that you've stopped caring for this game a while ago, but don't ruin it for the rest of us. If you'll notice, my vote wasn't the only one on Bass. Anyway, I think if you're going to suggest that's what's happening, you should consider saying something to the people who actually ruined it? Like the people who basically decided to thump people over the head with their superiority complexes and tell them their play wasn't welcome here? Who then have the sheer, toxic, egocentric gall to suggest they suddenly have some sort of fucking right to tell me who to vote for? Kiss my ass. Lol, this is modkill material ; ) So you actually confess that the only reason you vote for Bass is to fuck with me?
If deliberately misconstruing things was a sport, you'd be in the Olympics. Maybe you should consider that when the town is at 25% on those "definite" scumreads, you're going to have serious trouble convincing me to do what you want when you've spent the whole game beating me over the head with your alleged IQ? Pardon me while I laugh in your face.
I'm not in any way doing something worthy of a modkill. I'm just playing the game the best way I see fit, and after all the alternating condescending attitudes and failures to make good reads by certain people, I feel no compulsion to take their word for who to vote on.
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On July 13 2012 05:43 JingleHell wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2012 05:25 Hapahauli wrote:
Jingle, I understand that you've stopped caring for this game a while ago, but don't ruin it for the rest of us. If you'll notice, my vote wasn't the only one on Bass. Anyway, I think if you're going to suggest that's what's happening, you should consider saying something to the people who actually ruined it? Like the people who basically decided to thump people over the head with their superiority complexes and tell them their play wasn't welcome here? Who then have the sheer, toxic, egocentric gall to suggest they suddenly have some sort of fucking right to tell me who to vote for? Kiss my ass.
Good, someone finally said it. People like lazer who litterally goes "YOU STUPID IDIOT, WHY DONT YOU THINK LIKE ME, YOU SUCK ON MAFIA"
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HAHA, loool. You guys are hillarious. I never said that those with diferent opinions than me is retarded. I have however said that people who are retarded are retarded. Zen and Jingle, if you don't agree with me then say a reason for that.
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I already did. Or is the part where a 50% (DT night action) > 25% (Current Hapa read accuracy) confusing in some way?
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On July 13 2012 05:01 Hapahauli wrote:
We're bandwagoning a guy with pro-town behavior on the hope and prayer that he's mafia.
Hold on a minute. I'm gonna call BS on this Hapa. If you think about it, if I'm lynched tonight whats gonna happen when I flip green? Tomorrow everyone's gonna jump on Bass and if he is green too the mafia will be laughing.
It's pretty anti-town to be voting for me today as I feel 50% chance that Bass is mafia is a LOT higher than any crap you've got on me. I'm 100% convinced Bass is a better lynch target for the following reasons:
1. If you lynch me tonight, I'll flip green and then it's gonna be Bass tomorrow. If he is the miller it will leave town pretty screwed as everyone will be breaking down and accusing each other with no real idea who to lynch.
2. If you were to lynch Bass tonight, you'll find out if he's mafia or miller and if he does flip green, I know I'll be the #1 target for tomorrow. The way I see it, I'm gonna be dead before the game's finished and I feel 50% certainty on him is a lot better than what I would call a bad case against me. I haven't posted anything directly anti-town and a lot of the distrust people have in me comes from my lurkiness / unavailability.
Please lynch Bass tonight and if he's not mafia, I'll know I'll be taking the fall tomorrow anyway - even if I was mafia the huge suspicion on me right now means I'm going to be lynched before the end and it would end the game. I suppose the same could be said for Bass but he's the one who's confirmed to be 50/50 mafia/miller, not me.
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Jesus christ guys. My argument regarding the 50% regular scum hunting success rate was just an example to show how flawed Harry's logic was. Also scum reads become reliable the longer the game goes. The reason for this is that we obviously get more info the longer the game goes. I hope everyone agrees with this. Thus we should not lynch into Bass. He have been playing very townie all game.
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On July 13 2012 06:53 Lazermonkey wrote:
I hope everyone agrees with this.
Well, apparently 5 people (a majority) currently don't agree with you, so I'd have to hazard a guess that you hope in vain.
Maybe if you want people to agree with you, you should provide them with some reason to do so beyond being slightly less abrasive while they're doing so.
Don't make the mistake of assuming that just because I haven't been wasting much time with you, I must be some kind of pushover. I just have this strange thing about not wanting to waste copious amounts of my free time dealing with someone like you.
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On July 13 2012 06:53 Lazermonkey wrote:
Jesus christ guys. My argument regarding the 50% regular scum hunting success rate was just an example to show how flawed Harry's logic was. Also scum reads become reliable the longer the game goes. The reason for this is that we obviously get more info the longer the game goes. I hope everyone agrees with this. Thus we should not lynch into Bass. He have been playing very townie all game.
Please re-read what I have typed. Please re-think what you are saying. And please, tell me how my logic was flawed.
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Lazer, what's the probability that I am scum?
What's the probability that Makin is scum?
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Yes Lazer. What is the probability that Harry / me is scum?
It certainly isn't as good as the at least 50% we've got against Bass.
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I'm still interested in the possibility of a vote against the one person who's consistently played me-too on cases while being divisive, tried to intimidate votes, and wants to run the risk of keeping someone who's either scum or miller alive until the last minute.
Just to kind of test the waters, who'd be interested in ignoring all the WIFOM arguments that theoretically "prove" Lazer's innocence and lynching him, should Bass fail to flip scum?
Worst case scenario, we'd be able to scum-hunt in peace if he turned out to be a mislynch.
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On July 13 2012 07:03 JingleHell wrote:Well, apparently 5 people (a majority) currently don't agree with you, so I'd have to hazard a guess that you hope in vain. Maybe if you want people to agree with you, you should provide them with some reason to do so beyond being slightly less abrasive while they're doing so. Don't make the mistake of assuming that just because I haven't been wasting much time with you, I must be some kind of pushover. I just have this strange thing about not wanting to waste copious amounts of my free time dealing with someone like you. Wow dude. Why do you even take this personal? And you haven't read my post clearly. I hope everyone agrees with this refered to that we do get more reliable lynches the longer the game goes. Do you not agree with this. Also, I did say a reason for this. You however, have failed to provide a solid reason for why Bass is a better lynch than Mackin.
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On July 13 2012 07:03 YourHarry wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2012 06:53 Lazermonkey wrote:
Jesus christ guys. My argument regarding the 50% regular scum hunting success rate was just an example to show how flawed Harry's logic was. Also scum reads become reliable the longer the game goes. The reason for this is that we obviously get more info the longer the game goes. I hope everyone agrees with this. Thus we should not lynch into Bass. He have been playing very townie all game. Please re-read what I have typed. Please re-think what you are saying. And please, tell me how my logic was flawed.
I have read. I don't agree. Your logic is flawed because when Bass fucking flips fucking miller, what do we do? Where do we go from here? Because the only thing we get out of this lynch is that 5 people were relying more on coinflipping rather than scum reads. This plan is based on that Bass flips scum. If he doesn't, we are fucked.
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EPT
