Newbie Mini Mafia XX - Page 52

On July 13 2012 07:26 Lazermonkey wrote:
Wow dude. Why do you even take this personal? And you haven't read my post clearly. I hope everyone agrees with this refered to that we do get more reliable lynches the longer the game goes. Do you not agree with this. Also, I did say a reason for this. You however, have failed to provide a solid reason for why Bass is a better lynch than Mackin.

On July 13 2012 07:05 YourHarry wrote:
Lazer, what's the probability that I am scum?

What's the probability that Makin is scum?

On July 13 2012 07:22 Mackin wrote:
Yes Lazer. What is the probability that Harry / me is scum?
It certainly isn't as good as the at least 50% we've got against Bass.

On July 13 2012 07:32 JingleHell wrote:


I take it personal because you made it personal. Don't cry about not getting to control the results when that happened.

I don't agree that reads get inherently "better" later in the game, because, in this game, the best read came day 1. All the other decisive reads since then have been wrong, so clearly, taking the 50% chance sounds pretty damn good when compared to the 25% accuracy of reads.

You're still doing the "beat people over the head with ego" thing, by the way. I suggest if you're going to learn how to not do that, you do it quickly, because I leave for TKD in 20 minutes, and at that point, I'm locked in.

And you're better at repeating yourself than reading, because I've already explained why my vote is where it is several times. Just because you don't like the rationale doesn't make it less reasonable. As evidenced by the fact that quite a few votes are pointed that way.

On July 13 2012 07:30 Lazermonkey wrote:

I have read. I don't agree. Your logic is flawed because when Bass fucking flips fucking miller, what do we do? Where do we go from here? Because the only thing we get out of this lynch is that 5 people were relying more on coinflipping rather than scum reads. This plan is based on that Bass flips scum. If he doesn't, we are fucked.

On July 13 2012 07:38 Lazermonkey wrote:


The only non-confirmed players left is:
Me
Hapa
Bass
Mackin
YourHarry
I know I am town. For reasons I've already said(read my filter) I have a hard chance to belive that neither Bass nor Hapa is scum. So one of you guys must be scum. Both through the process of elimination and due to the fact that you are playing the most scummy atm.

I don't like speaking in percentage when talking scum reads, I am however very sure one of you is scum. And to me, Harry is a bit more likely to be scum than Mackin. I can elaborate why I think so, but I'd rather not. There are far more important matters atm.

On July 13 2012 07:50 Lazermonkey wrote:
Okay guys, just because, who are your n2 scum read then? aka who should get lynched if/when Bass flips miller. Just curious...

On July 13 2012 08:46 YourHarry wrote:


So you are saying that my logic is flawed because we are fucked when Bass flips scum...

But IF Bass is scum, we are fucked UNLESS we lynch him

And there is a high probability that Bass IS scum. Based on detective's report.

AND even if Bass is miller, we still have two additional attempts to lynch the scum.

And you seem to think coin flipping is bad... If I could get a coinflip on scum hunting, I would be the greatest mafia player ever in this world. By Far. Hands down.

We WANT coinflips. We WOULD BE ECSTATIC! (Except for the fact that we would be even MORE ECSTATIC if evul checked out one of the townies that would have given us 100% victory )

On July 13 2012 08:47 YourHarry wrote:


Why don't you like in speaking in percentages? Please estimate the probability of Hapa, Bass, Mackin, and YourHarry being scum. I know exactly why you don't want to give percentages... It would make all of this argument in lynching Bass foolish.

On July 13 2012 08:56 Lazermonkey wrote:
Yes, but this is What I mean. This plan is Only great if he is scum. You even say that youself. And I don't see a ReasoN for him being scum atm. I just don't. And no, as I've SaiD before. The DT getting red check on him means that he is either scum or miller. nothing more.

In a game where WE had almost won after N1, I don't like to flip coins, as this is the Only ReaL Way WE can lose.

On July 13 2012 09:00 Lazermonkey wrote:
No because it's a good argument to justify misslynches. When Bass flips miller in an hour, noone will be responsible because they will just say ''Oh, he had 50% chance of flipping scum. We were unlucky'' when there were in fact no luck involved.

However, since your so handsome, I'll do it anyway.
Bass:5%
Hapa:5%
Mackin:40%
You:50%

On July 12 2012 10:14 Evulrabbitz wrote:
The first post is of no particular importance.

His first post of substance is dedicated towards first counter-arguing some of Hapa's arguments against TMG but then backing up Hapa's case with a few of his own arguments.

The next few posts are about a misunderstanding with Lazer.

Now on to the interesting stuff.

When the misunderstanding is cleared up BassInSpace opens his next post with agreeing with Hapa on the Hapa vs Hopeless discussion. By this time, Hopeless1der has already made an unforgivable mistake as scum. He has outright lied! This means that within three days, he will be dead. If Lazer was killed the first night, It would have been either Jingle or Hopeless up for the next lynch. If then Jingle was killed (or investigated) Hopeless would be next. Now, BassInSpace's only option is to jump on the case against Hopeless early so he can avoid later suspicion. This has worked with both Hapa and Lazer, as their key point in his townie play seems to be this incident. What this does with BassInSpace's credibility is obvious as we can see the result. TBH, this seems like you are trying to find suspicious behavior when there is none. Note that almost everyone ignored Hapa's case to begin with. He was the FIRST one to actually comment on this case. And not only did he do that, he even agreed and voted for him. This is compared to guys likeMackin who soft defended Hope. Also note that he pushed the case against Hope. In fact, him and Hapa were the only persons to EVER push the case vs Hope. All others voted Hope either because they said they agreed or because they didn't want to lynch me.

He continues the very same post with making a case against Zen_Man. The credibility of this case is irrelevant. This is his back-up should someone other than Hopeless get lynched.

He finishes his post saying that Hapa's point and Hapa's meta case (remember this) make his vote swing in the favor of Hopeless rather than TMG or Zen, the two he previously made cases against.This is just false. Reread please

The next 3 posts are just clarifications. So not important.

The next post on line Is not really that suspicious other than he says he doesn't really like meta, yet his decision to vote for Hopeless was partially based on meta. The rest of this post can be seen as suspicious, but that will ultimately lead to too much WIFOM so I won't go there(E.g he encourages Jinglehell to make a good basis for defense to Hopeless which he then can support).

The following post is quite strange. What I see as important to note here is that he says the lying is the thing that made him vote for, and now keep his vote on, Hopeless. He even says Hapa's other points aren't so strong. Earlier he said that Hapa's case (including meta analysis) made him vote for Hopeless. Somewhat strange, indeed. ''Also, as much as I actually dislike heavy use of meta, it just adds to the 3 main points that I consider are the most damning in Hopeless's case.''No I don't agree with this.

He then starts a little case against Mackin. I won't go into it much, other than it seems like BassInSpace really likes to keep as many balls juggling at the same time as possible. The reason for this is too much WIFOM, I won't go there.

His next posts isn't that interesting. It's just throwing very, very, very mild suspicion on Lazer and YourHarry Link. He says something along the line of "Give us some credit, we can spot a bad case, No one has listened to Lazer and that he doesn't like YourHarry's play.

This post is regarding my little "I am townie" trap which he kinda fell into. Now I said my vote was being deciding in a sense it was not for Lazer, which is to some degree true. The other who opposed this stance (can't remember who) did it because they didn't realize I could vote for Lazer and switch the vote. BassInSpace's mistake was one based on logical conclusion. He says that if Lazer had flipped green(had I chosen him), I would be very, very suspicious, even more so than the person who pushed the case. Now personally I believe that every vote is as important as the other, as in any other "election" (don't know if right word here, but still). It might just have been a late update (which is actually was ^^). If Lazer flipped green, my logical conclusion would be to target the person who lead the case against Lazer, not the one who happened to throw the last vote (which has just as much worth as the other). This is yet an attempt for him to keep as many balls juggling as possible.No, he never even pushed you at all. Just dissmissed that you would look townie after voting Hope as everything else would look scummy. I don't 100% agree with this but it does at least make some sense

Now he hops onto the Release case for quite a few posts, not unexpected for scum. Neither is it unexpected for townie.

He continues his posts with trying to clarify things. A little WIFOM about the probability of Hapa being Mafia. Updates his suspicion against Mackin and YourHarry, keeping the balls juggling (Again; The reason is not clear so can't say this makes him scum).

This post is in response to Mackin who talks about BassInSpace's arguments against him (Mackin). BassInSpace has consistently been trying very hard to not make enemies. He has hold a case against Mackin almost the entire game and now he apologizes for pushing him. Dammit dude, show some decisiveness. You have been suspicious of him all game, yet you do not want to commit to a lynch on him. For that matter, you don't really want to lead a lynch on anyone even though you have so many suspicions.


Now Bass votes for Zen_Man until he posts his defense. So we all kinda sit around waiting. This is how everyone acted so nothing suspicious. The rest is not showing anything suspicious (the whole of page 3 on his filter) apart from maybe this post. Now he conveniently brings up his backup case against Mackin, says he was never really pressured so he had to "poke" him. Now if you found him so suspicious why didn't you lead a case against him? Your answer is always "because other were more suspicious" and you point out quite a few times. Yet you have not actively tried to lynch the more suspicious person, you have more or less agreed with everyone else while keeping slight suspicions on other people.Bass made some good response at these two paragraphs. Go read.

I feel like BassInSpace is kind of an "observer" in a sense he doesn't commit to a case. He simply backs up someones points and follows their lead while keeping some suspicions on other players which he can fall back later on. This also makes him come off as very indecisive. The fact that he first says that Hapa's arguments (including the meta analysis) made him vote for Hopeless, but then says that the sole reason he voted for Hopeless was the outright lie, is quite confusing.

On July 13 2012 09:00 Lazermonkey wrote:

No because it's a good argument to justify misslynches. When Bass flips miller in an hour, noone will be responsible because they will just say ''Oh, he had 50% chance of flipping scum. We were unlucky'' when there were in fact no luck involved.

On July 13 2012 09:15 YourHarry wrote:
Also, lazer, why do you think scum roleblocked medic and killed the tracker?

Do you think this was the best option?

On July 13 2012 09:17 YourHarry wrote:
Does Tracker who gets NK'ed still receive a report on the person they investigated?

I don't think Hapha is scum either. If Bass is miller, we lynch Makin.

Tough to choose between Hapha and Lazer though. There is one reason why I don't think Hapha is a scum, which I will reveal later.