I'd like to analyse the votes and the related posts with a few presumptions:
- Scum doesn't need to change to a mislynch if the majority on the wagon are already townies. Especially if scum was previously bussing it's convenient for them to stay on the old one unless their vote makes the difference.
Scum does need to change to a mislynch if one of theirs is threatened by another majority.
- Greymist looked scummy (hence he was lynched). As such, I think people joining late aren't suspicious like people early or in between cause scum knows they would look better afterwards if they ended up on another wagon. It's still possible that a scum post got the wagon rolling in the first place. (I shouldn't have joined the wagon so quickly, on second thought)
-
Can't be excluded that zarepath is scum and his buddies piled up onto Greymist just to make sure that the DP wagon can't get zare lynched.
After rereading and considering the wagons and his posts I actually believe that zarepath is scum.
- As you see, I bolded those I find most interesting (Cause early/in between). Geript looks actually pretty good cause of his decision to not join the wagon. GK had a really early vote on GM, then on Sandro, then back to GK and looks suspicious, cosmicomics too, also for earlier reasons. I'll take a shot at analysing these two, would be nice if you looked at the other guys I bolded.
On March 18 2013 14:14 Oatsmaster wrote:VOTE COUNT!ThePeashooter (0): Wade Fell, VisceraEyes, Coagulationgoodkarma (1): Mr. Wiggles, kitaman27, VisceraEyes, GreYMisT, kitaman27, Kenpachi Coagulation (0): ThePeashooterGreYMisT (12): goodkarma, RyuSuzaku, goodkarma, Vivax, geript, ThePeashooter, cosmicomics, Wade Fell, Mr. Wiggles, Kenpachi, zarepath, kitaman27, TestSubject893, WaveofShadow testsubject893 (0): Wade FellSandroba (0): goodkarma, glurio zarepath (6): geript, sciberbia, Hopeless1der, DoYouHas, DarthPunk, layabout, geript DoYouHas (1): TranceStorm cosmicomics (0): VivaxDarthPunk (3): layabout, VisceraEyes, [s]WaveofShadow[s], glurio, Coagulation, zarepath, cosmicomicsVivax (0):: kitaman27, CoagulationVisceraEyes (0): DarthPunkVoting is compulsory
I think those who switched from DP to GM last are most worth a look: Zare and cosmic.
So first of all, let me start with my reasoning as to why I think that most if not all of scum is on the GM bandwagon.
To do so, we have to exclude that scum were on the other two wagons.
Let's start with DP (who I have as townread currently)
I think the DP wagon has two explanations: Either DP is scum and zare and cosmic set themselves up to bus him only to switch later. Or they thought that his wagon would gain steam and then saw that it didn't work, deciding to switch to GM (possibly to save zarepath).
To check which one applies, I'd have to see how Zare + cosmic vote for DP and then switch to GM. Do they push the lynches? Are they consistent with their reads? Are the reasons good?
That said, I'll leave it to them to justify it. After rereading Zarepath I'm confident he's scum anyway, as for cosmic, you should know my opinion on him since early.
I think the zarepath wagon was the right wagon to go, and am assuming all on that one were townies. Sciberbia hit like a swiss knife again.
So we are left with the GM wagon. Now let me point out the switches coupled with my former reasoning.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
ZAREPATH
The timing of this post
+ Show Spoiler +On March 18 2013 09:03 zarepath wrote:
Okay, I just poked in to catch up as much as I can -- sorry that I am looking scummy; I will be able to participate much more during the week (as opposed to the weekend) and will hopefully be able to prove my alignment in a better fashion than I have thus far.
Darth Punk was one of something like 8 different people I suspected yesterday, and from the last couple of pages it seems as though his defense of other people's pressure hasn't been stellar. Mainly, all of his reads have been people who have been pressuring him, and much of his text is defending the first day of his game, not actively trying to find out who is scum.
The people he lists as scum suspects are not people he's trying to get others to lynch; it's entirely responsive.
I don't know if anybody else has mentioned this, but his first post seemed almost suspiciously over the top (I'm so excited for this game!), and that's another reason I feel okay about lynching him.
I wish I'd had time to look over some more candidates, but at this moment (and time is running short) I don't feel too bad about throwing my vote onto DarthPunk.
##Vote: DarthPunk
was right after DP got his ass gunned by VE. So zarepath should have felt that a wagon was coming and set himself up for it, and, coupled with the inconsistency sciberbia pointed out where zare asked that question about DP's early vote being unlikely for scum this doesn't look good for zare who suddenly got a scumread on the guy who just defended himself quite effectively, in my opinion.
As always, zarepath seems to be in a hurry, so he drops a couple of reasons to vote for him. I disagree with some reasons he mentions but they're not the main point of this case.
Does he push the case? No he doesn't. What we also notice is the timing of his vote. He cast his vote on DP after Ryu's convincing case on Grey.
Time difference:
On March 18 2013 04:23 RyuSuzaku wrote:
##vote greymist
On March 18 2013 09:26 zarepath wrote:
##Vote: DarthPunk
Then, when Grey had 8 votes on him already, he comes in with that "read" on him after asking him a question
On March 18 2013 11:55 zarepath wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2013 23:43 GreYMisT wrote:On March 16 2013 23:38 Hopeless1der wrote:On March 16 2013 22:05 zarepath wrote:On March 16 2013 16:46 Coagulation wrote:
im town thank god In the last game I played, literally every single person who claimed town in their opening post was scum. On March 16 2013 16:46 VisceraEyes wrote:
Hi I'm town yadda yadda. BH you wanna try and get a read on me before I go to bed? VE did say in the analysis that he always claims town no matter what, though. But seriously, what is the town motivation for claiming town so early? There's more scum motivation than town motivation. On March 16 2013 17:10 VisceraEyes wrote:
Maybe next time sport. Tell me, what do you make of geript and his RNG shenanigans? It's said that he RNG'd before the game started and that rather than using the name he drew, he RNG'd AGAIN when the game started! How exciting is that?!
Now, as we know, scum aren't likely to put their scumbuddy up for lynch so easily, so the supposition is that geript and zarepath are scumbuddies, and geript didn't want to put his buddy up for lynch! What do you say to THAT?! Yeah, I reject this notion for obvious reasons, but also for the fact that this is already an association case, isn't it? Granted, I suppose if you assume that there are scum motivations for him switching his RNG, the most obvious reason would be because his original RNG was going to hit scum. But wasn't he told he couldn't use that anyway and have it count as a real RNG? And again, you're already operating on the assumption the switch was scum-motivated. VE's super awesome team sounds dumb. I can't see how any self-respecting scum hunter would agree to unite their votes with 4 other active people no matter what. And honestly, don't the self-respecting scum hunters kind of unite with each other as they prove themselves to each other anyway? I am much more in favor of a "lead scumhunting team" coming about organically from the good scum-hunters recognizing each other as being good than VE deciding who is good and then telling them how to vote. Also, I find all role and setup speculation stupid at this point; even regarding the fact that the OP suggests the possibility of victory conditions changing throughout the game, I don't see how town is better served in finding scum through role speculation without any information with which to base it on, and I don't see why town would want to do anything other than promote a pro-town atmosphere and find scum on the first day regardless of the setup. /offtopic: flavor is awesome  The use of anecdotal evidence to push a non-existent policy is pretty scummy here. Unless lynching townclaims has become a thing. Is this what the kenpachi rule is for, or is that only for kenpachi? So uh, how about the part where he directly acknowledges that VE always opens up with a "hai I'm town" to some degree, and in spite of this, the townclaim is scummy? It should be read as null, every time, unless there's some meta "tone" read that I can't pick up on. Overall, I read through this post and zarepath keeps playing devil's advocate with himself and answering his own questions. There is no mindset of wanting to solve the game to me. I think he's scum. I agree with this look at Zarepath. It appears to me that he is trying to find things to say. GreYMist, whatever happened to this? You haven't mentioned me once since.
On March 18 2013 12:12 zarepath wrote:
I just switched to GreYMisT based mostly off of a look through his filter and the timing of his chiming in on other people who are already being suspected by others, or how almost everyone he mentions looks maybe scummy but he's not sure. (I recognize I am also kind of guilty of that last point, but I personally know I'm not scum, so there's that.)
Unvote: DarthPunk
Vote: GreYMisT
Not only did Ryu post a pretty strong case against Grey, which was the main reason so many people switched to him, and Zare doesn't refer to it at all, but he even thought DP was a better choice when Ryu posted the case before Zare voted DP.
Does this look like a guy who's trying to figure the game out? Who pushes his lynches? Who explains his reads?
Frankly I don't know what the reason is for why he votes Greymist, but apparently this guy doesn't have any real scumreads, cause when called out by sciberbia for his inconsistency, he says this:
On March 18 2013 12:23 zarepath wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2013 12:15 sciberbia wrote:On March 18 2013 09:19 sciberbia wrote:On March 17 2013 08:51 zarepath wrote:On March 17 2013 08:45 cosmicomics wrote:On March 17 2013 06:16 layabout wrote:On March 17 2013 05:51 cosmicomics wrote:On March 16 2013 23:42 Vivax wrote:
Sandro:
I don't like this post.
Quick conclusions. No arguments, no read on BH and VE (just being silly) and conclusive reads on people I actually find scummy. Townish reads on a guy who contributed something pointless. Not the sandro I would expect as town. Leaning red.
What does town sandro look like? What do you think of DarthPunk? You can see in the nested quotes that geript drops RNG for setup spec "I thought I couldn't use it from what was said in pregame and the tarot stuff got me interested." and then moves into asking about a different topic "How do you feel about this being based on some sort of tarot stuff?" So DarthPunk is acting as if geript is still attempting his RNG stuff (he isn't) and trying to lynch him off that, and doesn't actually address him. How do you get so mad at someone you totally dismiss his posting so quickly?
##Vote: DarthPunk
At the same time, do you really see scum laying a vote down that early? I'll have to check, but I dont' think thread sentiment was exactly pushing for a geript lynch. On March 18 2013 09:03 zarepath wrote:
Okay, I just poked in to catch up as much as I can -- sorry that I am looking scummy; I will be able to participate much more during the week (as opposed to the weekend) and will hopefully be able to prove my alignment in a better fashion than I have thus far.
Darth Punk was one of something like 8 different people I suspected yesterday, and from the last couple of pages it seems as though his defense of other people's pressure hasn't been stellar. Mainly, all of his reads have been people who have been pressuring him, and much of his text is defending the first day of his game, not actively trying to find out who is scum.
The people he lists as scum suspects are not people he's trying to get others to lynch; it's entirely responsive.
I don't know if anybody else has mentioned this, but his first post seemed almost suspiciously over the top (I'm so excited for this game!), and that's another reason I feel okay about lynching him.
I wish I'd had time to look over some more candidates, but at this moment (and time is running short) I don't feel too bad about throwing my vote onto DarthPunk.
##Vote: DarthPunk Why did you defend DP from cosmicomics yesterday if you thought his first post was suspiciously over the top and you suspected him? @zarepath Can you answer to this? This is a good point. It wasn't a soft defense so much as something that needed to be considered and answered if you were to make a case on him. He'd been on my radar at the time. Tonight, when I started trying to catch up, I saw DP's defenses which seemed really OMGUSy and a total lack of pro-town argument (other than prevent his own mislynch), and figured it was a good vote -- for some reaosn I thought the lynch deadline was going to be quite soon, and was actually worried that I'd already missed it when I came into the thread and just tried to get a vote down asaply. Now I'm on greymist because I think it's coming down between me and him, and I don't like his pattern of seeding suspicion onto players and then acting unsure, or letting others do the work.
Did you see DP being stubborn about his scumreads although under heavy pressure? Or Greymist saying he wants GK lynched while going down? This is what townies behave (Yes I think DP is town). Scumreads over everything, real patriots of their hometown.
Zarepath instead gives weak reasoning for switching votes, and his reads look fake. He doesn't have the ambition of a townie to get the scum lynched, he says Greymist is scummy but at the same time says he wants to vote for him to save his own hide. If you think the first you don't argue with the latter.
Verdict 1: Zarepath is scum.
Let's go back to the defence post: This dude defended both TPS and GK, who all have done scummy things according to most of this town, yet this guy disagrees with a lynch on them, says he has nothing to add, then lists things he finds scummy about them. Instinctive: We assume they are his scumbuddies, so we dig a little there, too, and we also see they were early on the GM wagon, like predicted at the start of this post. I'm right in between them (curse me). Scumlarm rings.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
COSMICOMICS
Most of the stuff I found suspicious about Cosmic still applies. So I'll just stick to the newer stuff especially related to the GM bandwagon, my old one is here
So first, let's bring up what he does exactly like zarepath, he tries to get the DP bandwagon rolling, and later switches to Grey even though he voted DP after Ryu's case. (His first post regarding DP included a vote here but not in the voting thread, so he did vote after Ryu's case effectively).
On March 17 2013 08:45 cosmicomics wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2013 06:16 layabout wrote:On March 17 2013 05:51 cosmicomics wrote:On March 16 2013 23:42 Vivax wrote:
Sandro:
I don't like this post.
Quick conclusions. No arguments, no read on BH and VE (just being silly) and conclusive reads on people I actually find scummy. Townish reads on a guy who contributed something pointless. Not the sandro I would expect as town. Leaning red.
What does town sandro look like? What do you think of DarthPunk? You can see in the nested quotes that geript drops RNG for setup spec "I thought I couldn't use it from what was said in pregame and the tarot stuff got me interested." and then moves into asking about a different topic "How do you feel about this being based on some sort of tarot stuff?" So DarthPunk is acting as if geript is still attempting his RNG stuff (he isn't) and trying to lynch him off that, and doesn't actually address him. How do you get so mad at someone you totally dismiss his posting so quickly?
##Vote: DarthPunk
On March 18 2013 07:41 cosmicomics wrote:Sunday is busy day. Still catching up but addressing first things first. Show nested quote +On March 17 2013 20:36 DarthPunk wrote:On March 17 2013 08:45 cosmicomics wrote:On March 17 2013 06:16 layabout wrote:On March 17 2013 05:51 cosmicomics wrote:On March 16 2013 23:42 Vivax wrote:
Sandro:
I don't like this post.
Quick conclusions. No arguments, no read on BH and VE (just being silly) and conclusive reads on people I actually find scummy. Townish reads on a guy who contributed something pointless. Not the sandro I would expect as town. Leaning red.
What does town sandro look like? What do you think of DarthPunk? You can see in the nested quotes that geript drops RNG for setup spec "I thought I couldn't use it from what was said in pregame and the tarot stuff got me interested." and then moves into asking about a different topic "How do you feel about this being based on some sort of tarot stuff?" So DarthPunk is acting as if geript is still attempting his RNG stuff (he isn't) and trying to lynch him off that, and doesn't actually address him. How do you get so mad at someone you totally dismiss his posting so quickly?
##Vote: DarthPunk
LoL just cacthing up now. One thing though. I doubt anyone could interpret my vote as anything more than some pressure to stop his RNG bullshit. That's clearly what it was but you claiming that I was trying to lynch him off that is complete BS. I doubt this misinterpretation could be anything but deliberate. ##unvote
##Vote:CosmicomicsExplain how the fuck you think I was actually doing anything more than a pressure vote on someone in order to get them to cease a terrible idea/plan? DarthPunk is caught lying and is trying to backpedal. My post specifically mentioned how geript had already stopped pursuing RNG material. Why would a town pressure vote to stop someone's "terrible idea" if they already stopped doing it in the very post they quoted? There was a slight possibility that DarthPunk was also trying to shut down geript's tarot card speculation, but in this post it is clear that it was not what he was doing. He himself admits that it was pressure to stop RNG. So there is absolutely no town reason why he would do this to geript. The only reason is to misinterpret geript as doing "terrible idea/plans", and try to mislynch him off that. ##Vote: DarthPunk
On March 18 2013 04:23 RyuSuzaku wrote:
##vote greymist
On March 18 2013 07:42 cosmicomics wrote:
Vote: DarthPunk
As we see, cosmicomics reasons for voting DP were his pressure vote on geript and how it was a lie cause he stopped the RNG stuff. I think this is a terrible point to bring against someone being mafia and only represents cosmicomics trying to use something that looks like an inconsistency to jump on and push the DP wagon. Early game pressure votes when people talk about the hipsteRNG are perfectly fine in my opinion and I had my vote on kita for a long time even after he delurked right after it, that's inconsistent too but it doesn't make me scum.
I mainly want to show the mafia agenda behind the switch from DP to Grey, cause I think mafia tried to save zarepath's ass with the switch from DP to Grey later.
On March 18 2013 08:20 cosmicomics wrote:
goodkarma
Upon a personal reading of his filter alone, he doesn't seem that bad.
I see consistency in the evolution of his reads (everything comes from somewhere).
I also see him trying to use meta (on GreYMisT and sandroba) in what I think is a sensible way.
The initial suspicion on him before he made his big post made sense, but was cleared up as his "playstyle".
GreYMisT's case seems to be "goodkarma can't make a good case he is scum", which isn't sound because "good case" is pretty subjective, and townies can fail to make "good cases" all the time.
I'm a slow reader so I might have missed other key points but I don't think he is a good lynch.
zarepath
Ehh ... I'm leaning newbie town player trying to adapt to the major leagues. While more experienced players may know that posts such as "I'm town" are jokes to be ignored for real content, a newer player may not. His questioning of my initial case on DarthPunk seems like a very difficult one to fake from a scum perspective, as it exploits word definition.
I would give him a chance to get adjusted first.
Vivax
Doesn't quite understand how I play but is putting in what seems to be genuine effort for now, especially with his efforts to try to focus attention on me.
If there is anything specific you want to point out I can look at it, because I like to spent my time (at least for D1) reading at a larger scale.
Here we see something that only reinforces my connection case: Zarepath defended TPS and GK. Cosmicomics defends Zarepath and GK and shows really weird behaviour.
He thinks I'm showing genuine efforts by directing the attention towards him. I don't know about you but when I'm town I don't like people calling me scum and forcing me to defend myself. But well, what matters is his defense of these two guys.
Then cosmic asks DP these two questions:
On March 18 2013 10:07 cosmicomics wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2013 10:04 DarthPunk wrote:On March 18 2013 09:59 cosmicomics wrote:
DarthPunk, in one sentence, do you think I did anything wrong (from my perspective) thus far? How am I supposed to understand your perspective when it is so obviously detached from anything I can identify with? But Obviously I do. Otherwise I wouldn't have voted for you. So you admit that you yourself (innocently) misinterpreted geript's posts, and I'm scummy for thinking that you misinterpreted him?
Upon which DP reacts with this:
On March 18 2013 10:10 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2013 10:07 cosmicomics wrote:On March 18 2013 10:04 DarthPunk wrote:On March 18 2013 09:59 cosmicomics wrote:
DarthPunk, in one sentence, do you think I did anything wrong (from my perspective) thus far? How am I supposed to understand your perspective when it is so obviously detached from anything I can identify with? But Obviously I do. Otherwise I wouldn't have voted for you. So you admit that you yourself (innocently) misinterpreted geript's posts, and I'm scummy for thinking that you misinterpreted him? NO you are scummy for sheeping a bad case on me which relied on turning an obvious pressure vote in this very first hour of the game into something more. And then trying to lynch me for it. When it was plain for all to see it was a start of the game pressure vote and nothing more. DESPITE me being wrong about the tarot thing.
On March 18 2013 10:21 cosmicomics wrote:
Yea I don't think DarthPunk is the lynch anymore. Just stubborn, but in a consistent townie way.
Upon review VE's case does look pretty bad.
##Unvote: DarthPunk
I'll be looking into the alternatives to decide.
On March 18 2013 10:34 cosmicomics wrote:
Upon review I am fine with lynching either GreYMisT or zarepath (his latest post really throws me off).
Gonna go with GreYMisT because zarepath will quickly expose himself if he is indeed scum.
##Vote: GreYMisT
Judge these reasons to favour Greymist by yourself. I think cosmicomics is scummy since early, so just go read my case
GOODKARMA
Then obviously, there's GK and TPS. I think these two dudes are scum, too if I just look at how Zare and cosmic handled them. I currently don't know who the fifth scum might be, but I kinda ruled out Ryu for this question from GK
On March 17 2013 05:31 goodkarma wrote:Regarding Grey:Show nested quote +On March 17 2013 04:10 layabout wrote:
since it looks like you mightn't get an answer would you care to share your read on grey? I asked about grey because I could find very little about his meta. I know he hosts many games, but he doesn't seem to have played in many. Best I can tell so far, he seems very detached from this game, posting often, but saying very little... Having a look at his meta would really help, if anyone happens to know a game he has actually played in (and not hosted) I would love to look at it. @Mr. Wiggles:Show nested quote +On March 17 2013 04:32 Mr. Wiggles wrote:On March 17 2013 03:53 goodkarma wrote:On March 17 2013 02:46 Coagulation wrote:
The sast thing was clearly a joke. It was like an hour into day 1 and there was no one posting. You can just expect to be nailing scum 1 hour into day 1 when 90% of players havnt posted. thats fucking absurd. so omg someone makes a joke post to pass the time. Okay. I can understand it was early. But if we were to look in the here and now you still haven't provided anything that suggests who you think could be scum.I think what peashooter, and others here are getting at, is either post something that helps us scumhunt, or don't post at all. I am less inclined than others here to just policy lynch you. But you make it hard for us when you continue to spam the thread with emotional OMGUS responses. Hopefully you see where we're coming from. I would be most interested in hearing about your read on Grey. What are your own reads for scum? You've mentioned twice the need to scumhunt, and here you're chiding Coag for not providing anything in regards to who he thinks is scum, when you yourself have done the same. It's just more of the same general game play talk with no actual stances taken in regards to your own opinions. ##Vote: goodkarmaConvince me you're not scum. Sowy, but I'm not giving you any scumreads until I'm ready to. You claim I haven't been scumhunting, but if you were to look at my posting so far I have: 1) Worked towards establishing a pro-town atmosphere, a reasonable early goal 2) Been pushing others for reads to get a better understanding of their motives and thought process, which is very important to getting scumreads As far as cases go, which aren't the only component of scumhunting: As I said, when I'm ready. And I promise you it will be long before the end of the day. But what I'd recommend you to do right now is to focus some of your energies on getting others to participate (not everyone has even posted yet!), and pursue some of your other scumreads. Because tunneling one read, and going into lurker mode thereafter is in itself pretty scummy... @Ryu:Show nested quote +On March 17 2013 04:28 RyuSuzaku wrote:On March 16 2013 22:24 sandroba wrote:
Geript and sciberbia are both town. BH is trying to emulate his previous behavior. VE is silly. Peashooter I'm leaning town due to the no name claiming warning, other than that the rest of the speculation is pointless at this stage. He seems to be a reasonable fella though, I'm curious about who he is.
Keep up the good work gents. On March 16 2013 22:30 sandroba wrote:
Update: Greymist is suspicious. On March 16 2013 22:40 GreYMisT wrote:On March 16 2013 22:30 sandroba wrote:
Update: Greymist is suspicious. Do you disagree with the point that I made? On March 16 2013 22:45 sandroba wrote:
Don't care about your "points", and neither do you. You seem mafia to me. Last sentence gave you away. I find this interaction forced-there seems to be something off about how sandroba and greymist confront each other here. I wouldn't even call it confronting, really. I dislike sandroba more for the lack of reasoning, but I think it could be possible they are both mafia. ##vote sandroba
Would you mind going a little more in depth on this case for me? From what I've seen in his past games, sandroba has been pretty lazy as both town and scum. The difference being the quality of his reads. From what I've seen so far, I'd say his assessments have been reasonable. What about his reads do you disagree with, or is this really just about his lazy posting style?
I'll post more later and possibly figure out the fifth one, writing this post was pretty tiring and took me ages :3
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EPT
