| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
On June 30 2011 12:59 GMarshal wrote: Actually RoL, do you mind taking my spot? I have a bunch of RL crap that just cropped up, and I don't know how much focus I can bring to this game. Sorry iGrok, I was looking forward to it. sure, np. back in the fray I suppose! | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
In fact they could all role claim Day 1 and with at most 6 players claiming DT, the 2 Vanilla Townies and the Vigi become confirmed. Night 1 the Vigi just shoots 1 of the 6 (if none died Night 0). The next day it repeats and even with a Night start it's going to be hard for Mafia to win assuming the Town isn't full of idiots, which I know is a big assumption. Probably might have to take out the Goon and give them a RB so that if the DTs do claim one of them can't confirm himself at night giving Mafia more of a chance. | ||
|
iGrok
United States5142 Posts
Night 0 will begin at 8:00pm EST tomorrow night! | ||
|
Pyo
United States738 Posts
On June 30 2011 13:38 Ace wrote: With 4 detectives that is going to be a problem for the Mafia. Even with a framer all it takes is all the Detectives claiming Day 3 with 2 nights worth of checks and that's game over. In fact they could all role claim Day 1 and with at most 6 players claiming DT, the 2 Vanilla Townies and the Vigi become confirmed. Night 1 the Vigi just shoots 1 of the 6 (if none died Night 0). The next day it repeats and even with a Night start it's going to be hard for Mafia to win assuming the Town isn't full of idiots, which I know is a big assumption. Probably might have to take out the Goon and give them a RB so that if the DTs do claim one of them can't confirm himself at night giving Mafia more of a chance. I don't think that everyone claiming their role night 0 is game breaking. If everyone claims their role Day 1, mafia can't both claim DT or both claim town. If they do one of the following situations will occur assuming no DT powers are used. 4 DT claims, 5 green/vigi claims Vigi kills a random town night 0, mafia kills a DT night 0, (3 DT's, 4 greens) Town then lynches each of the green claims. Assuming optimal strategy by mafia (only kill DT's), here are the possible outcomes: 1/8 chance town wins at the end of day 1 1/12 chance mafia wins end of day 2 5/24 chance for town to win end of day 2 7/24 chance mafia wins end of day 3 7/24 chance town wins end of day 3 mafia chance: 3/8 town chance: 5/8 6 DT claims, 3 green/vigi claims Vigi kills random DT night 0, mafia kills green night 0 (5 DT's, 2 greens) Town then lynches mafia and mafia kills greens. 1/15 chance town wins end of day 1 2/15 chance town wins end of day 2 1/5 chance mafia wins end of day 2 1/5 chacne mafia wins end of day 3 2/5 chance town wins end of day 3 mafia chance: 2/5 town chance: 3/5 In both cases it is overwhelmingly in favor of town, i.e. it would be very bad for mafia to do this considering DT checks are in play, which will make it immeasurably more likely to nab the mafia. Therefore, in a situation where everyone must declare their role, we're going to see the following: 5 DT claims, 4 green/vigi claims Optimal strategy for mafia would generally be to target the larger group while town should always target the smaller group except for that under these conditions, Vigi shouldn't shoot night 0. By not shooting night 0, mafia must decide whether to gamble whether they want to go for the vigi kill (after day 2, the vigi kill will be a definite kill mafia hit if the town hasn't gotten the mafia claiming green by then). The problem with mafia going for greens is that if they whiff night 0 the vigi gets a guaranteed kill day 1 if he didn't get himself lynched. Meanwhile, DT's should only be checking themselves. All in all, I don't see a clear optimal strategy or even a case where I can calculate odds of winning considering mafia does have the power to sway lynches, etc. The only concern I have about the game set-up is that random chance plays a HUGE role in altering the power balance, but those things will become apparent or can be dismissed as irrelevant as the game progresses. | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
On June 30 2011 16:11 Pyo wrote: I don't think that everyone claiming their role night 0 is game breaking. If everyone claims their role Day 1, mafia can't both claim DT or both claim town. If they do one of the following situations will occur assuming no DT powers are used. I'm cutting out all your probabilities because none of them matter once everyone mass claims. As for the bolded that is the exact problem with the setup: The mafia can't safe claim. Remember that the Vigilante can't shoot Night 0. The DT checks DO NOT matter for the purpose of the claim. Once you understand this it's very simple to break the setup. Night 0 or Day 1, either one doesn't really matter but if the Town is smart and wants to really hammer the Scum they all mass claim on Night 0. The major problem is the Scum can't do anything about all 4 Detectives claiming. This splits the player base into 2 pools which the Mafia must choose: 1.) All 4 DTs claim and all 4 are then confirmed town. This sends the game into a 5 man hunt where all the DTs have to do is split their checks onto 2 targets or to even be dicks just all target 1 player. The Mafia can do whatever at this point but by the next day all 4 Detectives will have an idea of their sanities once the town lynches said player. The game is over at this point. The Mafia can not hit anyone in this pool of 5 players because it would just make the game end faster, and the Town can even play around and split the claimed DTs into 2 camps and still come out on top. 2.) The only actual "option" for the Mafia is to have 1 of them claim Detective, and the other Vanilla Townie. Remember that neither of them can claim Vigilante as they'll just be shot by the real Vigi the next night and the detectives will check one or the other claimants and learn their sanities the next day. So the game turns into: 3 Vanilla Town claims 5 DTs 1 confirmed Town aka Vigilante Now you're back in the same thing as situation 1 where as instead of 5 players, you now have 3 to work with! Game over very fast once again as the Vigilante just has to shoot any of the 3 VTs and all of the detectives investigate that guy the same night. Next day it's 2 VTs because the Mafia can't hit the other one and the town 1 lynch away from ending the game. The Mafia pretty much have to shoot the Vigi the night he shoots or the game is over. 3.) Both Scum claim Detective Might be the "best" option since instead of 4 confirmed Town aligned Detectives, it is now 2 VTs and Vigi. Not really that good if 1/3rd of the Town is confirmed. The Mafia have to shoot into the 3 confirmed town pool, and the cops all check the target the Vigi calls out at night. The town can even play around and shoot one of their confirmed Town players, get all 4 DTs sanities and then from now on the DTs all check each other knowing their sanities. If they want to win straight out all 4 check the scummiest DT and the Vigi shoots him. Game is over. None of the options have the Mafia playing on equal terms. They need a Roleblocker to stop the town from being able to just power level through them with Detectives, or more KP to fight through the mass claim. There is nothing the Mafia can do stop it. | ||
|
deconduo
Ireland4122 Posts
| ||
|
Pyo
United States738 Posts
However, if the mafia split their claims, there is no optimal strategy because it will take too long to systematically eliminate players. This forces the town to get super lucky or to actually have to make scum reads if they want to win. | ||
|
deconduo
Ireland4122 Posts
| ||
|
deconduo
Ireland4122 Posts
| ||
|
iGrok
United States5142 Posts
On June 30 2011 23:34 deconduo wrote: Does the Framer override the Paranoid DT? In otherwords, if the Framer frames someone to be town and a Paranoid DT checks that person, what result will he return? Paranoid Cops return "Mafia" regardless of the alignment of their target. On July 01 2011 01:31 deconduo wrote: If a Paranoid Cop gets killed does he flip 'Cop' or 'Paranoid Cop'? Paranoid Cops flip "Cop" | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
 On July 01 2011 00:57 Pyo wrote: Your #2 can't happen unless the vigi decides to shoot night 0 because he'll just die before he gets his shot off. Vigi has to claim vanilla town. Also, you basically said exactly what I said, except you have an "only" option and a "best" option. If you are trying to argue that a game is broken, you can't do it based on saying "check or shoot the scummiest player," since that is the premise of the game. It can only be broken if there is an optimal winning strategy that completely ignores how people act/post negating the need for reading people. Under the current set up, such a strategy exists if both mafia claim DT or both mafia claim vanilla town (that was what I was showing by pointing out the probabilities of every possible outcome - under those situations the game basically devolves into a coin flip heavily weighted in towns favor) However, if the mafia split their claims, there is no optimal strategy because it will take too long to systematically eliminate players. This forces the town to get super lucky or to actually have to make scum reads if they want to win. K you know better than I do. | ||
|
Caller
Poland8075 Posts
the difference being that the optimal strategy is impossible to execute in my games | ||
|
Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
And RoL didn't accept my out from RTM, so I'm already playing both that and closed casket. I'm really sorry but if you can find someone else to sub in for me. that'd be great. | ||
|
Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
if that wasn't clear. Again, sorry for this last minute change. | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Dethy http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Dethy/Analysis This is pretty much a game of Dethy with a Vigilante and an extra scum. The Night 0/Day 1 RC accomplishes the same thing as everyone in Dethy claiming Cop except that the town has a Vigilante, and that the Scum only have 1 realistic option of winning which isn't even that good. When I analyze games I always try and find out what's the fastest ways to get confirmed town. If it's possible to do it with just a mass claim on Night 0 chances are that Scum will lose very fast. | ||
|
iGrok
United States5142 Posts
Game starts in 5 hours! | ||
|
Pyo
United States738 Posts
On July 01 2011 03:33 Ace wrote: by the way to even understand where I'm coming from you need to realize how Masons and confirmed town works. After you've thought about that then read this to extrapolate: http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Dethy http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Dethy/Analysis This is pretty much a game of Dethy with a Vigilante and an extra scum. The Night 0/Day 1 RC accomplishes the same thing as everyone in Dethy claiming Cop except that the town has a Vigilante, and that the Scum only have 1 realistic option of winning which isn't even that good. When I analyze games I always try and find out what's the fastest ways to get confirmed town. If it's possible to do it with just a mass claim on Night 0 chances are that Scum will lose very fast. I'm not really disagreeing with you. I'm simply saying that mass role claiming with mafia splitting their claims does not lead to any confirmed towns therefore the game isn't broken by a mass night 0 role claim. Adding a roleblocker also does not change the fact that mafia must split their claims if there is a mass night 0 role claim. Having an RB doesn't matter if you don't even need the roles for town to win, which is the case with mafia double DT claiming or double town claiming. Anyway, we'll see how the game plays out. If the game really is broken, it'll become abundantly clear. I mean isn't the point of themed mafia games to try out unusual powers and/or set-ups (some of which might not always work)? | ||
|
iGrok
United States5142 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/f4FnI.jpg) The world is aflame. It all started in a Caller game. Doesn’t it always? The town thought that the nukes were all duds. They weren’t. All the major cities: London, Paris, Berlin, DC, Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, are nothing more than ashes. The vibrant fields of the American Midwest have been reduced to wasteland. Chernobyl is no longer the most radioactive area in Russia. 2012 came a year early. Humanity hangs by a thread, one slip away from disappearing from the world forever. All hope for persistence lies in twelve lucky survivors. Led into a secret underground Unfortunately, two of them are crazy. It all started three days ago. Qatol was found dead in his cot, strangled by his bedsheets. “perhaps he was driven mad by the thought of what has occurred,” the group thought. “It couldn’t have been murder.” Then they killed iGrok, with a knife. A big fucking knife. The group collapsed. All semblance of trust disappeared. In the confusion, Varpulis was killed in the night in the dining room with a candlestick. The seven remaining bastions of justice must now use their collective skills to identify and eliminate their murderous foes, before it is too late. Tonight, they will kill again… Qatol the valiant savior has been killed. iGrok the townie has been killed Varpulis the 3rd party Clue enthusiast has been killed PMs will be going out shortly, you should receive it within 5 minutes. Enjoy! | ||
|
iGrok
United States5142 Posts
| ||
|
Pyo
United States738 Posts
I'm a townie. | ||
| ||
StarCraft 2 StarCraft: Brood War Dota 2 Counter-Strike Super Smash Bros Heroes of the Storm Other Games |
|
Replay Cast
GSL Code S
herO vs Zoun
Classic vs Bunny
The PondCast
Replay Cast
WardiTV Invitational
OSC
Korean StarCraft League
SOOP
sOs vs Percival
CranKy Ducklings
WardiTV Invitational
[ Show More ] |
|
|
EPT
