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![[image loading]](http://i110.photobucket.com/albums/n99/chuiu/TLmafia_new.png)
*Varpulis is helping me co-host this game. Any questions can be directed towards him or myself.
Paranoid Mafia
+ Show Spoiler [Important Posts] +
Introduction:
Mafia is an educated guessing game of epic proportions. The objective of the game is to lynch or kill all mafia members before they outnumber the rest of the town. It's much like a game of poker because mafia members are also part of the town during the day and may manipulate the vote to their liking. If the mafia at any time outnumber or equal the townspeople, they win. The town's goal is to lynch all the members of the mafia.
The game is typically very active, so the thread will get big quickly. However, it is essential to read the thread to play the game. If you do not have the time or patience to read the whole thread, do not play. I will not compensate for ignorance.
Rules:
Cheating:
Cheating includes (but is not limited to):
1. Posting after death. You may have one polite goodbye post, but it may not contain any potentially game-changing information.
2. Ruining the game by doing something like hand out your mafia's member list to the town.
3. Logging on to someone else's account to get their role or looking over someone's shoulder to get their role.
4. Comparing role PM times to determine roles.
5. Posting screenshots of your inbox.
6. Posting any PM you receive from a host.
7. Getting yourself modkilled to help your team. Your non-majority-decided death may not be used as a bargaining chip.
8. Signing up more than once using smurf accounts.
9. Betting items outside of the game in exchange for in-game benefits.
10. Sharing accounts with other players. Only you may post on your account.
Cheating is not tolerated here. The punishment will be severe.
Posting:
Mod Font:
This is mod font. It is reserved for moderators. Please do not use it.
Question Font:
This is question font. Use it to ask the moderators questions about the rules. Please do us a favor and read the rules before you ask anything.
Activity:
You must post in this thread once per day/night cycle and vote every day while you are alive. If you fail to do so, you will be modkilled.
Smurfs:
On April 26 2011 13:22 mikeymoo wrote:
No Smurfs Allowed.
Spam:
Spam is not tolerated, nor is any off-topic material. Do not discuss Proleague here. Do not talk about Starcraft II here. Play Mafia here.
Editing:
Editing is not allowed for any reason. Editing will result in a warning for the first instance in the thread. After that, you will be modkilled. This is the one part of the site where it is okay to be double posting, even triple-posting. While I ask for everybody to post as concisely as possible, post again if you have to edit anything.
Inappropriate posts:
If you want to post something insulting or inappropriate and know the TL mods would have a problem with it elsewhere, don't post it here. If you do, a host will warn you or modkill you and request that you be banned from future games. The hosts have the final say on what is inappropriate. If you do not like how someone is talking to you, please PM a host, Qatol, or Flamewheel before involving the TL staff. If you are unsatisfied with how the situation is resolved, then you can appeal to the TL staff normally.
Reporting posts:
The report button is a nice feature for regular TL, but not for this forum. We prefer to deal with things in house if possible to avoid confusion among the TL staff. If you have a problem with how someone is posting, talk to the host, co-host, Qatol, or Flamewheel before using your report button. Please do not use your report button for anything other than inappropriate posts which you feel are not being dealt with adequately.
Ban discussions:
Please wait until this game is over to talk about modkills and bans resulting from this game.
Play to win.
You have been warned.
Voting rules:
1. Voting is done in this thread. Please keep votes here, and only vote here. Do not PM me your vote.
2. Please vote in the following format: ##Vote Qatol. Votes not done in the correct fashion will not be counted. I will update vote counts whenever I get the chance.
3. If you wish to change your vote, you must first ##Unvote Qatol.
3. No conditional voting.
4. You may vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game.
5. In the event of a tie the person with the most votes first wins (or loses).
6. You may vote for a no-lynch.
7. Voting is mandatory. You may (NOT) abstain.
Signups:
This game is open to anyone who has completed at least 1 game of TL mafia. If you were modkilled during your game, it does not count. Signups will remain open until all spots have been filled.
Game-specific rules:
Modkills:
This game follows the TL Mafia Ban List. Also, kurumi and gtrsrs are banned. If you are modkilled, your punishment will go beyond being eliminated from this game. Please refer to it for questions about your punishment. If you want to use this game to sit out your ban, please PM Qatol or post in the Ban List.
PMs
PMs are not allowed in this game.
Time Cycle:
This game will follow a 24 hour night/48 hour day cycle, starting at night. In case I am not able to post around deadline, any votes after the 48 hour mark will not count and the game will be put on halt until the night post is up. Currently the deadline is time, but that is subject to change.
Credits:
Thanks to anyone who has ever hosted a game. This list grows ever longer.
Thanks to VarpuliS, who helped balance this game.
Thanks to Qatol for keeping me from being a bastard mod!
If you have not read all the rules, go back and do so. I will not compensate for ignorance!
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The setup is an open setup: The following roles and role-counts will be used in this game.
Set Up:
Townie (2)
You are just a normal player with no night actions. All you can do is vote during the day. But the town needs you to win so be active!
Sane Detective (2)
You can make night investigations. Once per night you may ask for the alignment of any player. Alignments are either Town or Mafia. You do not know if you are Sane or Paranoid. Alignment checks come back with the next day post.
Paranoid Detective (2)
You can make night investigations. Once per night you may ask for the alignment of any player. Alignments are either Town or Mafia, but all of your checks return "Mafia". You do not know if you are Sane or Paranoid. Alignment checks come back with the next day post.
Vigilante (1)
You exist outside the law. As the only townie with a weapon, you have an unrivaled power. During one night, you may PM me the name of a player to kill. If mafia targets the same player as you, your shot will be refunded. You may not shoot Night 0 because you have no justification!
Mafia Goon (1)
Your goal is to eliminate everyone else in the town. Your ability, as a group, is killing off whomever you decide on at night and knowing the role of each other player in your mafia. You may kill your own members. Mafia killing power is always 1 until there are no mafia remaining.
Framer (1)
You are a mafia member who has the ability to Frame a player to appear as either Town or Mafia to an alignment check. Once per night, you may frame a player, and if your target is checked by a detective, they will return the alignment you specify. You do not have to use your action every night.
I know you didn't read the OP, so I'll repeat it here: Nightstart, bitches!
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Player List
1. deconduo
2. sinani206
3. RebirthOfLeGenD
4. VisceraEyes
5. Sandroba
6. Pyo
7. supersoft
8. nard
9. Misder
Replacement List
1.
2.
3.
2 of 2 MAFIA remaining:
1 of 1 Goons alive
1 of 1 Framers alive
7 of 7 TOWN remaining:
4 of 4 Detectives alive
1 of 1 Vigilantes alive
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United States22154 Posts
/in
I can tell this is going to be a bad idea.
Doing it anyway! 
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On June 26 2011 17:59 GMarshal wrote:/in I can tell this is going to be a bad idea. Doing it anyway!
Haha, awesome!
This is how I fully expect people to feel during this game:
+ Show Spoiler +
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United States22154 Posts
On June 26 2011 18:04 iGrok wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2011 17:59 GMarshal wrote:/in I can tell this is going to be a bad idea. Doing it anyway! Haha, awesome! This is how I fully expect people to feel during this game: + Show Spoiler +
I mean more of in the sense that I'm also playing in closed casket, LAL and real time mafia, so if I don't go about getting myself killed in some of these games I'll likely start suffering multiple personality disorder.
The setup is awesome btw, so glad you included the framer, as I came up with a way to break it if you don't
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WHY DO YOU PEOPLE MAKE AWESOME GAMES WHEN I CANT PLAY RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGE
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can i play in this and RTM?
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I would prefer that no one who is in RTM plays in this game. RTM is going to be much more heavily involved than most games played here.
But, we don't know when RTM ends, so if it ends before this fills, feel free to sign up!
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I like the player list so far. Count me in.
also, GUARDIAN
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On June 27 2011 19:44 Palmar wrote:
/in
I will be seriously disappointed if Palmar doesn't get vig, especially considering theres a 50/50 chance of hitting at DT from the very start 
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On June 27 2011 21:30 deconduo wrote:I will be seriously disappointed if Palmar doesn't get vig, especially considering theres a 50/50 chance of hitting at DT from the very start
I'm probably the perfect person for the job.
And don't forget, I'll win anyway.
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On June 27 2011 22:19 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2011 21:30 deconduo wrote:On June 27 2011 19:44 Palmar wrote:
/in I will be seriously disappointed if Palmar doesn't get vig, especially considering theres a 50/50 chance of hitting at DT from the very start I'm probably the perfect person for the job. And don't forget, I'll win anyway.
Yep if I'm mafia I'm definitely killing you first
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On June 27 2011 22:34 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2011 22:19 Palmar wrote:On June 27 2011 21:30 deconduo wrote:On June 27 2011 19:44 Palmar wrote:
/in I will be seriously disappointed if Palmar doesn't get vig, especially considering theres a 50/50 chance of hitting at DT from the very start I'm probably the perfect person for the job. And don't forget, I'll win anyway. Yep if I'm mafia I'm definitely killing you first
Better do it properly to make sure I stay dead.
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I'm in RTM, but I'd like to play if you're bending on the restriction.
Plus, it hasn't even started...and this one looks like it will be over much faster than RTM.
Feel free to ignore it, but
/in
I promise I'm active.
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On June 28 2011 02:30 VisceraEyes wrote:I'm in RTM, but I'd like to play if you're bending on the restriction. Plus, it hasn't even started...and this one looks like it will be over much faster than RTM. Feel free to ignore it, but /in I promise I'm active.
Bending for GMarshal because I KNOW he can do both and LaL was taken down. Not saying you can't but I don't know. If you die in RTM let me know ^^
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What if I pinky-swear I can do both? :D
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I'll put you on replacements lol.
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oops nm =P
/in as replacement
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There are still 3 spots remaining!
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Can the detectives self-check?
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On June 29 2011 07:01 Palmar wrote:
Can the detectives self-check?
With framers present, it doesn't really help determine that you are sane by self-checking.
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Detectives cannot self-check
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On June 29 2011 07:07 Pyo wrote:With framers present, it doesn't really help determine that you are sane by self-checking.
only one framer, you'd in worst case end up with 1 confirmed sane detective, and 3 possible insane, and that's only if the framer correctly guesses a sane detective.
Anyway, it's been cleared up.
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United States22154 Posts
On June 30 2011 08:30 Misder wrote:
/in!
Your name rings a bell. You played with me in... orgha? And I think you played in insane. Am I completely wrong?
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Signups are now closed! The game will start whenever I can be arsed to write a Night post!
And again, this game will have a Nightstart! During the first 24 hours, you must send in any and all actions for the first night, and you may begin discussion of the game. Please wait for discussion until it actually starts though ^^
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/replacement
I was sent some unintended info in RTM, so I am being replaced out of that.
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Also, VE and sandroba are still alive in RTM, so can I move to spot 1 on the replacement list? 
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I am giving my spot to sinani206 since it was my fault he can no longer play in RTM.
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United States22154 Posts
On June 30 2011 12:56 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I am giving my spot to sinani206 since it was my fault he can no longer play in RTM.
Actually RoL, do you mind taking my spot? I have a bunch of RL crap that just cropped up, and I don't know how much focus I can bring to this game. Sorry iGrok, I was looking forward to it.
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lol@ musical chairs.
what time will the posting/voting deadline be? According to the OP, it will be at "time"
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On June 30 2011 12:59 GMarshal wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2011 12:56 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I am giving my spot to sinani206 since it was my fault he can no longer play in RTM. Actually RoL, do you mind taking my spot? I have a bunch of RL crap that just cropped up, and I don't know how much focus I can bring to this game. Sorry iGrok, I was looking forward to it.
sure, np.
back in the fray I suppose!
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With 4 detectives that is going to be a problem for the Mafia. Even with a framer all it takes is all the Detectives claiming Day 3 with 2 nights worth of checks and that's game over.
In fact they could all role claim Day 1 and with at most 6 players claiming DT, the 2 Vanilla Townies and the Vigi become confirmed.
Night 1 the Vigi just shoots 1 of the 6 (if none died Night 0).
The next day it repeats and even with a Night start it's going to be hard for Mafia to win assuming the Town isn't full of idiots, which I know is a big assumption. Probably might have to take out the Goon and give them a RB so that if the DTs do claim one of them can't confirm himself at night giving Mafia more of a chance.
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I think I've updated the list?
Night 0 will begin at 8:00pm EST tomorrow night!
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On June 30 2011 13:38 Ace wrote:
With 4 detectives that is going to be a problem for the Mafia. Even with a framer all it takes is all the Detectives claiming Day 3 with 2 nights worth of checks and that's game over.
In fact they could all role claim Day 1 and with at most 6 players claiming DT, the 2 Vanilla Townies and the Vigi become confirmed.
Night 1 the Vigi just shoots 1 of the 6 (if none died Night 0).
The next day it repeats and even with a Night start it's going to be hard for Mafia to win assuming the Town isn't full of idiots, which I know is a big assumption. Probably might have to take out the Goon and give them a RB so that if the DTs do claim one of them can't confirm himself at night giving Mafia more of a chance.
I don't think that everyone claiming their role night 0 is game breaking. If everyone claims their role Day 1, mafia can't both claim DT or both claim town. If they do one of the following situations will occur assuming no DT powers are used.
4 DT claims, 5 green/vigi claims
Vigi kills a random town night 0, mafia kills a DT night 0, (3 DT's, 4 greens)
Town then lynches each of the green claims. Assuming optimal strategy by mafia (only kill DT's), here are the possible outcomes:
1/8 chance town wins at the end of day 1
1/12 chance mafia wins end of day 2
5/24 chance for town to win end of day 2
7/24 chance mafia wins end of day 3
7/24 chance town wins end of day 3
mafia chance: 3/8
town chance: 5/8
6 DT claims, 3 green/vigi claims
Vigi kills random DT night 0, mafia kills green night 0 (5 DT's, 2 greens)
Town then lynches mafia and mafia kills greens.
1/15 chance town wins end of day 1
2/15 chance town wins end of day 2
1/5 chance mafia wins end of day 2
1/5 chacne mafia wins end of day 3
2/5 chance town wins end of day 3
mafia chance: 2/5
town chance: 3/5
In both cases it is overwhelmingly in favor of town, i.e. it would be very bad for mafia to do this considering DT checks are in play, which will make it immeasurably more likely to nab the mafia. Therefore, in a situation where everyone must declare their role, we're going to see the following:
5 DT claims, 4 green/vigi claims
Optimal strategy for mafia would generally be to target the larger group while town should always target the smaller group except for that under these conditions, Vigi shouldn't shoot night 0. By not shooting night 0, mafia must decide whether to gamble whether they want to go for the vigi kill (after day 2, the vigi kill will be a definite kill mafia hit if the town hasn't gotten the mafia claiming green by then). The problem with mafia going for greens is that if they whiff night 0 the vigi gets a guaranteed kill day 1 if he didn't get himself lynched. Meanwhile, DT's should only be checking themselves. All in all, I don't see a clear optimal strategy or even a case where I can calculate odds of winning considering mafia does have the power to sway lynches, etc.
The only concern I have about the game set-up is that random chance plays a HUGE role in altering the power balance, but those things will become apparent or can be dismissed as irrelevant as the game progresses.
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On June 30 2011 16:11 Pyo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2011 13:38 Ace wrote:
With 4 detectives that is going to be a problem for the Mafia. Even with a framer all it takes is all the Detectives claiming Day 3 with 2 nights worth of checks and that's game over.
In fact they could all role claim Day 1 and with at most 6 players claiming DT, the 2 Vanilla Townies and the Vigi become confirmed.
Night 1 the Vigi just shoots 1 of the 6 (if none died Night 0).
The next day it repeats and even with a Night start it's going to be hard for Mafia to win assuming the Town isn't full of idiots, which I know is a big assumption. Probably might have to take out the Goon and give them a RB so that if the DTs do claim one of them can't confirm himself at night giving Mafia more of a chance. I don't think that everyone claiming their role night 0 is game breaking. If everyone claims their role Day 1, mafia can't both claim DT or both claim town. If they do one of the following situations will occur assuming no DT powers are used.
I'm cutting out all your probabilities because none of them matter once everyone mass claims. As for the bolded that is the exact problem with the setup: The mafia can't safe claim.
Remember that the Vigilante can't shoot Night 0. The DT checks DO NOT matter for the purpose of the claim. Once you understand this it's very simple to break the setup.
Night 0 or Day 1, either one doesn't really matter but if the Town is smart and wants to really hammer the Scum they all mass claim on Night 0.
The major problem is the Scum can't do anything about all 4 Detectives claiming. This splits the player base into 2 pools which the Mafia must choose:
1.) All 4 DTs claim and all 4 are then confirmed town. This sends the game into a 5 man hunt where all the DTs have to do is split their checks onto 2 targets or to even be dicks just all target 1 player. The Mafia can do whatever at this point but by the next day all 4 Detectives will have an idea of their sanities once the town lynches said player. The game is over at this point. The Mafia can not hit anyone in this pool of 5 players because it would just make the game end faster, and the Town can even play around and split the claimed DTs into 2 camps and still come out on top.
2.) The only actual "option" for the Mafia is to have 1 of them claim Detective, and the other Vanilla Townie. Remember that neither of them can claim Vigilante as they'll just be shot by the real Vigi the next night and the detectives will check one or the other claimants and learn their sanities the next day. So the game turns into:
3 Vanilla Town claims
5 DTs
1 confirmed Town aka Vigilante
Now you're back in the same thing as situation 1 where as instead of 5 players, you now have 3 to work with! Game over very fast once again as the Vigilante just has to shoot any of the 3 VTs and all of the detectives investigate that guy the same night. Next day it's 2 VTs because the Mafia can't hit the other one and the town 1 lynch away from ending the game. The Mafia pretty much have to shoot the Vigi the night he shoots or the game is over.
3.) Both Scum claim Detective
Might be the "best" option since instead of 4 confirmed Town aligned Detectives, it is now 2 VTs and Vigi. Not really that good if 1/3rd of the Town is confirmed. The Mafia have to shoot into the 3 confirmed town pool, and the cops all check the target the Vigi calls out at night. The town can even play around and shoot one of their confirmed Town players, get all 4 DTs sanities and then from now on the DTs all check each other knowing their sanities. If they want to win straight out all 4 check the scummiest DT and the Vigi shoots him. Game is over.
None of the options have the Mafia playing on equal terms. They need a Roleblocker to stop the town from being able to just power level through them with Detectives, or more KP to fight through the mass claim. There is nothing the Mafia can do stop it.
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Does the Framer override the Paranoid DT? In otherwords, if the Framer frames someone to be town and a Paranoid DT checks that person, what result will he return?
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Your #2 can't happen unless the vigi decides to shoot night 0 because he'll just die before he gets his shot off. Vigi has to claim vanilla town. Also, you basically said exactly what I said, except you have an "only" option and a "best" option. If you are trying to argue that a game is broken, you can't do it based on saying "check or shoot the scummiest player," since that is the premise of the game. It can only be broken if there is an optimal winning strategy that completely ignores how people act/post negating the need for reading people. Under the current set up, such a strategy exists if both mafia claim DT or both mafia claim vanilla town (that was what I was showing by pointing out the probabilities of every possible outcome - under those situations the game basically devolves into a coin flip heavily weighted in towns favor)
However, if the mafia split their claims, there is no optimal strategy because it will take too long to systematically eliminate players. This forces the town to get super lucky or to actually have to make scum reads if they want to win.
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This looks like a setup where hypocopping from day 1 might work. Gonna try and do some maths on it when I get home from work.
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If a Paranoid Cop gets killed does he flip 'Cop' or 'Paranoid Cop'?
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On June 30 2011 23:34 deconduo wrote:
Does the Framer override the Paranoid DT? In otherwords, if the Framer frames someone to be town and a Paranoid DT checks that person, what result will he return?
Paranoid Cops return "Mafia" regardless of the alignment of their target.
On July 01 2011 01:31 deconduo wrote:
If a Paranoid Cop gets killed does he flip 'Cop' or 'Paranoid Cop'?
Paranoid Cops flip "Cop"
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I'm subbing out of this one 
On July 01 2011 00:57 Pyo wrote:
Your #2 can't happen unless the vigi decides to shoot night 0 because he'll just die before he gets his shot off. Vigi has to claim vanilla town. Also, you basically said exactly what I said, except you have an "only" option and a "best" option. If you are trying to argue that a game is broken, you can't do it based on saying "check or shoot the scummiest player," since that is the premise of the game. It can only be broken if there is an optimal winning strategy that completely ignores how people act/post negating the need for reading people. Under the current set up, such a strategy exists if both mafia claim DT or both mafia claim vanilla town (that was what I was showing by pointing out the probabilities of every possible outcome - under those situations the game basically devolves into a coin flip heavily weighted in towns favor)
However, if the mafia split their claims, there is no optimal strategy because it will take too long to systematically eliminate players. This forces the town to get super lucky or to actually have to make scum reads if they want to win.
K you know better than I do.
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this game is about as balanced as one of my games
the difference being that the optimal strategy is impossible to execute in my games
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I have a new job coming up monday
And RoL didn't accept my out from RTM, so I'm already playing both that and closed casket. I'm really sorry but if you can find someone else to sub in for me. that'd be great.
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/out
if that wasn't clear.
Again, sorry for this last minute change.
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by the way to even understand where I'm coming from you need to realize how Masons and confirmed town works. After you've thought about that then read this to extrapolate:
http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Dethy
http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Dethy/Analysis
This is pretty much a game of Dethy with a Vigilante and an extra scum. The Night 0/Day 1 RC accomplishes the same thing as everyone in Dethy claiming Cop except that the town has a Vigilante, and that the Scum only have 1 realistic option of winning which isn't even that good.
When I analyze games I always try and find out what's the fastest ways to get confirmed town. If it's possible to do it with just a mass claim on Night 0 chances are that Scum will lose very fast.
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Hopefully that does it for subs!
Game starts in 5 hours!
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On July 01 2011 03:33 Ace wrote:by the way to even understand where I'm coming from you need to realize how Masons and confirmed town works. After you've thought about that then read this to extrapolate: http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Dethyhttp://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Dethy/AnalysisThis is pretty much a game of Dethy with a Vigilante and an extra scum. The Night 0/Day 1 RC accomplishes the same thing as everyone in Dethy claiming Cop except that the town has a Vigilante, and that the Scum only have 1 realistic option of winning which isn't even that good. When I analyze games I always try and find out what's the fastest ways to get confirmed town. If it's possible to do it with just a mass claim on Night 0 chances are that Scum will lose very fast.
I'm not really disagreeing with you. I'm simply saying that mass role claiming with mafia splitting their claims does not lead to any confirmed towns therefore the game isn't broken by a mass night 0 role claim. Adding a roleblocker also does not change the fact that mafia must split their claims if there is a mass night 0 role claim. Having an RB doesn't matter if you don't even need the roles for town to win, which is the case with mafia double DT claiming or double town claiming.
Anyway, we'll see how the game plays out. If the game really is broken, it'll become abundantly clear. I mean isn't the point of themed mafia games to try out unusual powers and/or set-ups (some of which might not always work)?
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Night 0
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/f4FnI.jpg)
The world is aflame. It all started in a Caller game. Doesn’t it always? The town thought that the nukes were all duds. They weren’t. All the major cities: London, Paris, Berlin, DC, Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, are nothing more than ashes. The vibrant fields of the American Midwest have been reduced to wasteland. Chernobyl is no longer the most radioactive area in Russia. 2012 came a year early.
Humanity hangs by a thread, one slip away from disappearing from the world forever. All hope for persistence lies in twelve lucky survivors. Led into a secret underground vault bunker by iGrok, Varpulis, and Qatol, these distraught souls are the only chance for the continued existence of Homo Sapiens.
Unfortunately, two of them are crazy. It all started three days ago. Qatol was found dead in his cot, strangled by his bedsheets. “perhaps he was driven mad by the thought of what has occurred,” the group thought. “It couldn’t have been murder.” Then they killed iGrok, with a knife. A big fucking knife. The group collapsed. All semblance of trust disappeared. In the confusion, Varpulis was killed in the night in the dining room with a candlestick.
The seven remaining bastions of justice must now use their collective skills to identify and eliminate their murderous foes, before it is too late. Tonight, they will kill again…
Qatol the valiant savior has been killed.
iGrok the townie has been killed
Varpulis the 3rd party Clue enthusiast has been killed
PMs will be going out shortly, you should receive it within 5 minutes. Enjoy!
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All PMs have been sent out. Discussion is allowed during the night cycle. Please submit all actions by 8:00pm EST July 1st (tomorrow)
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As discussed previously, I think everyone should night 0 role claim as it forces mafia to take some sort of action rather than simply lurking. I'll start:
I'm a townie.
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United States22154 Posts
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lol.
Is anyone actually going to contribute to discussion?
I'll keep a list of the claims so far.
1. deconduo
2. sinani206
3. RebirthOfLeGenD
4. VisceraEyes
5. Sandroba
6. Pyo
7. supersoft
8. nard
9. Misder
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Last person to claim gets my pressure vote, BTW, because I can't find any other way to figure out who gets it.
RUSHRUSHRUSH to claim.
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DT. Vig should claim townie btw.
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VT for the lose  I wanted paranoid DT so I could be all SCUUUUUUUUUM!!! SCUUUUUUUUUM!!!
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1. deconduo
2. sinani206
3. RebirthOfLeGenD
4. VisceraEyes
5. Sandroba
6. Pyo
7. supersoft
8. nard
9. Misder
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First of all FOS on Misder for being last to claim.
Next step depends on what Misder claims. If he claims DT then all our green claims are clear. All DTs should then investigate a green claim tonight to check sanity. One of them will be framed but hopefully we can work out who it was via a process of elimination.
If Misder claims VT that makes it slightly more difficult. In that case I would recommend checking the DT next on the list. In other words I check sinani, sinani checks sandroba etc. Once again, mafia will frame one, but as long as we account for that we should be ok.
I would expect mafia to shoot into the greens night one to try and take out the vig ASAP.
Any thoughts on this?
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yes seems pretty reasonable. However, we have to wait for misder...
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Oh and vig shouldn't shoot tonight, for obvious reasons
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On July 01 2011 13:28 sinani206 wrote:
1. deconduo
2. sinani206
3. RebirthOfLeGenD
4. VisceraEyes
5. Sandroba
6. Pyo
7. supersoft
8. nard
9. Misder
Updated.
Edit: Fuck, sorry I didn't mean to edit this post, I meant to copy it into a new post.
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On July 01 2011 21:39 deconduo wrote:Oh and vig shouldn't shoot tonight, for obvious reasons
Scummiest post in thread so far btw.
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On July 01 2011 21:57 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2011 21:39 deconduo wrote:Oh and vig shouldn't shoot tonight, for obvious reasons Scummiest post in thread so far btw.
Whyso? You think vig should shoot n0 o.o
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On July 01 2011 22:00 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2011 21:57 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On July 01 2011 21:39 deconduo wrote:Oh and vig shouldn't shoot tonight, for obvious reasons Scummiest post in thread so far btw. Whyso? You think vig should shoot n0 o.o
EBWOP: I'm a retard
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read the rules genius lol
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so can someone explain the current plan for detectives again?
is there any focus on someone to rolecheck? or are there no preferences for checking (i guess if greens are clear then only check blues?) some specific person?
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Sorry about that, but i'll take the heat. I'm townie.
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On July 01 2011 21:57 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2011 21:39 deconduo wrote:Oh and vig shouldn't shoot tonight, for obvious reasons Scummiest post in thread so far btw.
Well vigi shouldn't necessarily shoot N0. Here's my thinking, correct me if I'm wrong.
Right now we have 5 DT claims and 4 Town/vigi claims. That means that there is a mafia in each group, as expected (assuming a townie didn't lie - they have no reason to). A general strategy would be for town to keep our DTs alive and checking as long as possible, so the greater our chance that the sane DTs can figure out who they are. This means that we should go after the mafia claiming town first.
If we were to randomly pick a person out of a hat, we'd have a 1 in 4 chance of lynching the mafia. However, the Vigi has a 1 in 3 chance of lynching that mafia. The more people in the claimed town group that die, the greater the chances of picking the mafia become, so it really doesn't make sense for mafia to shoot a town (but it works out better for town if they do). Additionally, the longer the Vigi stays alive, the better his chance of shooting the mafia become (since he has one additional piece of information that no one else has: the fact that he knows who he is). The only danger is that town might accidentally lynch him, and if they do he loses his shot.
Here's where my solution come in, town should decide during the night who they are going to lynch tomorrow. The vigi can then see oh shit I guess I'm going to end up dead, so I'd better take my chances tonight and shoot someone. If town happens to target someone who isn't him, he can just hold his shot for another night knowing that he is safe to do so. Furthermore, seeing a shot go off is basically a way for town to know that the guy we had decided to randomly kill was town aligned so the next day we can just kill someone else. And if we don't see the shot go off, we just go ahead with the lynch as planned.
The best part is that there really isn't anything mafia can do to stop us. Any thoughts?
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On July 01 2011 21:57 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2011 21:39 deconduo wrote:Oh and vig shouldn't shoot tonight, for obvious reasons Scummiest post in thread so far btw.
I also want to point out the irony in this post by RoL...
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I vote to lynch Deconduo and have all the DT's check him tonight.
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On July 01 2011 13:28 sinani206 wrote:
1. deconduo
2. sinani206
3. RebirthOfLeGenD
4. VisceraEyes
5. Sandroba
6. Pyo
7. supersoft
8. nard
9. Misder
Updated.
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On July 02 2011 00:57 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I vote to lynch Deconduo and have all the DT's check him tonight.
Is there some inside joke I'm not getting here? If we're going to decide night 0 who to vote for, it should be a claimed VT. If we're just going to vote for a DT, you might as well wait till day 1. Additionally, there isn't much point in DT checking someone who you want to die, but frankly night 0 it really doesn't matter who you check, but it is important that DT's spread their checks so they aren't affected by the framer.
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RoL gets a warning. No more editing this game, next person will be modkilled.
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On July 02 2011 00:49 Pyo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2011 21:57 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On July 01 2011 21:39 deconduo wrote:Oh and vig shouldn't shoot tonight, for obvious reasons Scummiest post in thread so far btw. I also want to point out the irony in this post by RoL...
Irony in this post and in the one above.
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HOLY SHIT ITS MY TL BIRTHDAY
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Pyo, I hope you know this, but big can't shoot n0. Stop bringing that possibility up.
Also, don't like deconduo's plan. Scum can easily plan frames and fakeresults. I rather have dts check someone random to avoid any planning fromscum.
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O.o
My bad. Well I guess that means there's nothing for VTs to do tonight... yawn.
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On July 02 2011 00:57 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I vote to lynch Deconduo and have all the DT's check him tonight.
Okay, RoL is mafia. You sugest something like this with a framer present in the setup? You know better than this. DTs should follow sinani's plan so hopefully we can get at least one (maybe 2) confirmed sanity.
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And by sinani I mean decon's plan of DTs checking the DTs bellow them.
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On July 02 2011 05:26 sandroba wrote:
And by sinani I mean decon's plan of DTs checking the DTs bellow them.
But why would a sane DT report that he's sane? And if DTs can't report why does it matter who they actually check? If mafia know that DT's are only checking other DT's, that just makes it more likely that the framer will succeed.
DT's should just check whomever they feel like.
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On July 02 2011 05:31 Pyo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2011 05:26 sandroba wrote:
And by sinani I mean decon's plan of DTs checking the DTs bellow them. But why would a sane DT report that he's sane? And if DTs can't report why does it matter who they actually check? If mafia know that DT's are only checking other DT's, that just makes it more likely that the framer will succeed. DT's should just check whomever they feel like.
Yeah the more I think about it the less likely that plan is to work. Everyone checking someone random is the best idea, for night 0 anyway. Ideally there will a time where all of us can post our results together. This would be the best case scenario which would stop the mafia DT from choosing their result accordingly.
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I can dig checking at random too. I was thinking along the lines of confirming you sanity to yourself and hiding your inocent results till later. Like if you get an inocent check just say you check someone else and he's scum.
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Okay maybe not... Mafia can't kill the DT who got an inocent check without giving us a confirmed inocent.
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On July 02 2011 01:09 iGrok wrote:
RoL gets a warning. No more editing this game, next person will be modkilled.
Yeah, sorry about that. I was trying to edit and copy what was written and accidentally clicked submit thinking I quoted.
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i will check a random player. Best way to avoid the framing etc.
Does our plan also include posting the result of the check?
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Okay, I'm just thinking out-loud. Anyone who desires can chime in and tell me I'm wrong about any of this. But don't call me scum because of it, a-hole! This is all speculation and conjecture.
For d1, dts check at random; lynch based on performance in-thread.
d2 we'll have red checks back (for certain), but it's not assured that the valid dts will get red checks. Therefor, we'll have at least 1 or 2 confirmed townies AND confirmed Sane DTs.
....and then....bleh. I don't know what to do with that information because logically we can't do anything with it without giving information to mafia.
Oh, also...FoS RoL for attempting to confuse town. SCUUUUUUUUM!!!! If we lynch Decon, no one has to check him because he'll flip. Was that some kind of joke? It wasn't funny sir!
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Oh if I die tonight, FOS on RoL
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Yes, out claims in thread. Town needs info before you get killed. Although this might prove impossible, best scenario is that everyone claims at the same time.
Vis: what do you mean d1 dt check random? Also, how do you plan on getting anyone confirmed with framers around?
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As the hours wore on, eventually the survivors needed to rest. They separated into individual rooms, trusting no one with their safety. Who knew whether the fiends who had killed iGrok, Qatol, and VarpuliS would strike again? It wasn't a pleasant sleep, but considering the circumstances, the rest was welcome.
As they lay resting, a few people went back over the previous events, looking for clues. One man cleaned his gun, smuggled into the bunker for just this situation.
And one man was killed.
In the morning, deconduo was missing at breakfast. The refugees were filled with dread as they raced to his room - the room at the end of the hall. deconduo was more suspicious than others, and had chosen the furthest room possible.
As they turned the corner, they saw a puddle of blue blood spilling out on the floor. No more words were necessary.
A new policy was set in place by the town: Each day, they would kill the most suspicious person in the group, until no more murders happened!
deconduo the Detective has been killed.
It is now Day 1. Please remember to vote!
Actions are going out soon.
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K, checked RoL got scum. GG.
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On July 02 2011 07:54 deconduo wrote:Oh if I die tonight, FOS on RoL
That being said RoL is probably town and framed or I'm paranoid. We should Start with RVS on the townies left. If vig is planning to shoot tonight he should probably claim already so we can choose between 2 (non RoL townies).
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Checked misder, got townie.
He's confirmed.
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Also, I must be regular DT, so I'll probably die tonight.
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mh yea, that "let the DT report their result"-thing maybe wasn't very intelligent...
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FYI, framer can frame someone to be town.
Sinani, though, is confirmed sane. Need one more claim.
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On July 02 2011 09:22 sandroba wrote:That being said RoL is probably town and framed or I'm paranoid. We should Start with RVS on the townies left. If vig is planning to shoot tonight he should probably claim already so we can choose between 2 (non RoL townies).
That's kind of a WIFOM situation, so I wouldn't rule him out yet. I agree, let's go lynch a townie. If we happen to pick the Vigi, he should claim. Best part is that mafia can't false claim because he'll be dead next night cycle if he does.
On July 02 2011 10:33 sinani206 wrote:
Checked misder, got townie.
He's confirmed.
On July 02 2011 10:34 sinani206 wrote:
Also, I must be regular DT, so I'll probably die tonight.
Or you're mafia protecting the other mafia. Or you're a mafia claiming a truth to establish cred when misder gets killed. Or you're telling the truth. THIS IS ALL WIFOM!!!!!!!!! We didn't learn anything from you claiming.
DT's don't need/shouldn't to claim and if they confirm they are sane, there is no reason to out themselves yet...
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On July 02 2011 10:42 Misder wrote:
FYI, framer can frame someone to be town.
Sinani, though, is confirmed sane. Need one more claim.
um, no. He can be mafia lol. And since it is entirely possible for both sane DT's to not know that they are sane yet, no one can counterclaim. As far as I'm concerned, there is only 1 confirmed townie, and that's me.
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I guess we're lynching RoL? Nard is the only other one that hasn't posted today and deconduo said to kill RoL...
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On July 02 2011 10:46 Pyo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2011 10:42 Misder wrote:
FYI, framer can frame someone to be town.
Sinani, though, is confirmed sane. Need one more claim. um, no. He can be mafia lol. And since it is entirely possible for both sane DT's to not know that they are sane yet, no one can counterclaim. As far as I'm concerned, there is only 1 confirmed townie, and that's me.
ahm no misder is the confirmed townie. I checked you and I found SCUM
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ah no, noone is confirmed town yet... we only know this:
if sinani206 is DT, misder is town.
if sinani206 is DT, he's sane
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On July 02 2011 10:50 supersoft wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2011 10:46 Pyo wrote:On July 02 2011 10:42 Misder wrote:
FYI, framer can frame someone to be town.
Sinani, though, is confirmed sane. Need one more claim. um, no. He can be mafia lol. And since it is entirely possible for both sane DT's to not know that they are sane yet, no one can counterclaim. As far as I'm concerned, there is only 1 confirmed townie, and that's me. ahm no misder is the confirmed townie. I checked you and I found SCUM
This might be a lost in translation moment, but what I meant was I know I'm town because I got a PM from iGrok telling me I was. There is other information publicly available in this thread confirming anyone's alignments besides knowing that decon was really a blue.
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Pyo, claiming is useful. Also, don't WIFOM yourself. Patience and scumhunting is what you need.
We're waiting for nard to claim before we start lynching.
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EDIT: I meant there is NO other information publically available...
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On July 02 2011 11:10 Misder wrote:
Pyo, claiming is useful. Also, don't WIFOM yourself. Patience and scumhunting is what you need.
We're waiting for nard to claim before we start lynching.
No, claiming right now is not useful. And, I'm not WIFOMing myself, I'm simply saying that all of these claims are not conclusive. The only way I'll believe that you're town is the other sane DT claims saying that sinani206 is town, but that's would be just silly since they would both just die and the game would be over.
And surely everyone should know that claiming sane DT is ridiculously bad play and needlessly risky so early in the game. Throw in the fact that mafia needs to be very proactive in this game set up, I'm extremely suspicious of sinani206 right now.
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I don't get why you think claiming now is not useful.
And information, although useful, is not going to win us the game, scumhunting will. And it seems like youre unwilling to do that.
I rather dts claim now then us lose information. Also, although it's very helpful to have sane cops alive, we don't lose the game if they are not.
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Five people claimed DT.
1 died and 2 outed their results before me. It would have looked scummy to not out my results.
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Sandroba is Mafia.
EPIC TWIST
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On July 02 2011 12:26 sinani206 wrote:
Five people claimed DT.
1 died and 2 outed their results before me. It would have looked scummy to not out my results.
Difference is that they got scum reads...
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On July 02 2011 13:47 Pyo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2011 12:26 sinani206 wrote:
Five people claimed DT.
1 died and 2 outed their results before me. It would have looked scummy to not out my results. Difference is that they got scum reads...
They would know I got an inno if I didn't out though.
This argument is pointless.
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On July 02 2011 11:55 Misder wrote:
I don't get why you think claiming now is not useful.
And information, although useful, is not going to win us the game, scumhunting will. And it seems like youre unwilling to do that.
I rather dts claim now then us lose information. Also, although it's very helpful to have sane cops alive, we don't lose the game if they are not.
Am I the only one who thinks that this whole like of thinking is completely non-sensical. Why would giving away an advantage be a good thing?
First you say, "information, although useful, is not going to win us the game."
Then you say "I rather dts claim now then us lose information."
You're contradicting yourself. You want scum-hunting, there you have it. I was going to vote for whoever's brilliant idea it was to have DT's out themselves day 1 when nothing can be confirmed by it, and low and behold, it's you.
Until I see evidence to the contrary, I think we've just found our mafia pair: sinani206 and Misder.
##vote: Misder
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On July 02 2011 16:02 Pyo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2011 11:55 Misder wrote:
I don't get why you think claiming now is not useful.
And information, although useful, is not going to win us the game, scumhunting will. And it seems like youre unwilling to do that.
I rather dts claim now then us lose information. Also, although it's very helpful to have sane cops alive, we don't lose the game if they are not. Am I the only one who thinks that this whole like of thinking is completely non-sensical. Why would giving away an advantage be a good thing? First you say, "information, although useful, is not going to win us the game." Then you say "I rather dts claim now then us lose information." You're contradicting yourself. You want scum-hunting, there you have it. I was going to vote for whoever's brilliant idea it was to have DT's out themselves day 1 when nothing can be confirmed by it, and low and behold, it's you. Until I see evidence to the contrary, I think we've just found our mafia pair: sinani206 and Misder. ##vote: Misder
You call that scumhunting?
All you did was find the tiniest little thing that possibly could be considered noob town at worst and declare that you've already found the scum.
I'm pressure voting for RoL because he hasn't posted yet today and I know that he's a good player.
##Vote: RebirthOfLegend
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On July 02 2011 16:23 sinani206 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2011 16:02 Pyo wrote:On July 02 2011 11:55 Misder wrote:
I don't get why you think claiming now is not useful.
And information, although useful, is not going to win us the game, scumhunting will. And it seems like youre unwilling to do that.
I rather dts claim now then us lose information. Also, although it's very helpful to have sane cops alive, we don't lose the game if they are not. Am I the only one who thinks that this whole like of thinking is completely non-sensical. Why would giving away an advantage be a good thing? First you say, "information, although useful, is not going to win us the game." Then you say "I rather dts claim now then us lose information." You're contradicting yourself. You want scum-hunting, there you have it. I was going to vote for whoever's brilliant idea it was to have DT's out themselves day 1 when nothing can be confirmed by it, and low and behold, it's you. Until I see evidence to the contrary, I think we've just found our mafia pair: sinani206 and Misder. ##vote: Misder You call that scumhunting? All you did was find the tiniest little thing that possibly could be considered noob town at worst and declare that you've already found the scum. I'm pressure voting for RoL because he hasn't posted yet today and I know that he's a good player. ##Vote: RebirthOfLegend
Yeah, two noob-towns who just happened to be checking each other? It's a little hard for me to believe, but w/e, if you're actually telling the truth you're probably going to be dead during the next night cycle from which we get nothing but more WIFOM...
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sandroba: K, checked RoL got scum. GG.
sinani206: Checked misder, got townie.
supersoft: checked pyo, got scum
nard: Sandroba is Mafia.
_________________________________________
if misder and sinani206 are scum, we would have 3 insane DTs. Or mafia framed pyo/RoL/sandroba
i don't know, I don't think misder and sinani206 is our scumpair
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Pyo, dts have info. if they die without getting the info out, then it's wasted. However, again, and something you're not getting at, is that scumhunting is a big part of the game. At the very least, I dont want you to tunnel on a Misder+sinani scum team.
Here is what I was thinking overnight.
Today we lynch a townie claim. Vig shoots the other tonight, and we got scum either today, that night or the following day. At worst we get 2 confirmed townies, 1 confirmed sane, and more info from the other cops vs 1 scum. Scum has to choose between trying to kill the vig or killing sinani tonight.
Also, ROL and VE, what do you think of a Misder+sinani scum team?
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On July 02 2011 22:41 Misder wrote:
Pyo, dts have info. if they die without getting the info out, then it's wasted. However, again, and something you're not getting at, is that scumhunting is a big part of the game. At the very least, I dont want you to tunnel on a Misder+sinani scum team.
Here is what I was thinking overnight.
Today we lynch a townie claim. Vig shoots the other tonight, and we got scum either today, that night or the following day. At worst we get 2 confirmed townies, 1 confirmed sane, and more info from the other cops vs 1 scum. Scum has to choose between trying to kill the vig or killing sinani tonight.
Also, ROL and VE, what do you think of a Misder+sinani scum team?
okay this post, I don't know.
##vote: Misder
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On July 02 2011 19:57 supersoft wrote:
sandroba: K, checked RoL got scum. GG.
sinani206: Checked misder, got townie.
supersoft: checked pyo, got scum
nard: Sandroba is Mafia.
_________________________________________
if misder and sinani206 are scum, we would have 3 insane DTs. Or mafia framed pyo/RoL/sandroba
i don't know, I don't think misder and sinani206 is our scumpair
I could see how either RoL or myself could have been framed. RoL was the FoS of the guy who got shot and I made a whole bunch of "optimal strategy" posts.
Basically, of the four, one of them is scum. sinani stood out to me as the least believable.
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People who are not confirmed:
3. RebirthOfLeGenD
4. VisceraEyes
5. Sandroba
6. Pyo
7. supersoft
8. nard
Of the three townie claims here, one is town, one is vigilante, and one is mafia.
Of the three detective claims here, two are detectives and one is mafia.
If vigilante claims:
We have one mafia and one town left.
A) If we kill the townie today, vigilante can shoot the mafia tonight and the Mafia will use their KP on me, misder, or the vigilante: the confirmed sane detective or the two confirmed townies.
If they kill me there will be 2 detectives, 2 townies, and 1 mafia left. 1/3*1/2 = 1/6
If they kill a town there will be 3 detectives, 1 townie, and 1 mafia left. 2/3*1/2 = 2/6
B) If we kill the mafia today, vigilante can shoot an unconfirmed detective tonight and have a 1/3 chance of hitting the second mafia, and Mafia will still kill me, misder, the vigilante, or the townie.
If the vigilante hits a Mafia, town wins. 1/3*1/2 = 3/18
If the vigilante hits a detective and Mafia kills me there will be 2 detectives, 2 townies, and 1 mafia left. 2/3*1/4*1/2 = 1/12
If the vigilante hits a detective and Mafia kills a townie there will be 3 detectives, 1 townie, and 1 mafia tonight. 2/3*3/4*1/2 = 1/4
Chance of 2/2/1: 3/12
Chance of 3/1/1: 7/12
Chance of win: 2/12
I think that the vigilante claiming is our best course of action.
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On July 03 2011 00:37 sinani206 wrote:
People who are not confirmed:
3. RebirthOfLeGenD
4. VisceraEyes
5. Sandroba
6. Pyo
7. supersoft
8. nard
Of the three townie claims here, one is town, one is vigilante, and one is mafia.
Of the three detective claims here, two are detectives and one is mafia.
If vigilante claims:
We have one mafia and one town left.
A) If we kill the townie today, vigilante can shoot the mafia tonight and the Mafia will use their KP on me, misder, or the vigilante: the confirmed sane detective or the two confirmed townies.
If they kill me there will be 2 detectives, 2 townies, and 1 mafia left. 1/3*1/2 = 1/6
If they kill a town there will be 3 detectives, 1 townie, and 1 mafia left. 2/3*1/2 = 1/3
B) If we kill the mafia today, vigilante can shoot an unconfirmed detective tonight and have a 1/3 chance of hitting the second mafia, and Mafia will still kill me, misder, the vigilante, or the townie.
If the vigilante hits a Mafia, town wins. 1/3*1/2 = 1/6
If the vigilante hits a detective and Mafia kills me there will be 2 detectives, 2 townies, and 1 mafia left. 2/3*1/4*1/2 = 1/12
If the vigilante hits a detective and Mafia kills a townie there will be 3 detectives, 1 townie, and 1 mafia tonight. 2/3*3/4*1/2 = 1/4
Chance of 2/2/1: 3/12 25%
Chance of 3/1/1: 7/12 58%
Chance of win: 2/12 17%
I think that the vigilante claiming is our best course of action.
Fixed a fraction and put percentages.
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I rather not have vig claim today unless he's the lynch target. Better to not give unnecessary info to scum.
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On July 03 2011 00:38 sinani206 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2011 00:37 sinani206 wrote:
People who are not confirmed:
3. RebirthOfLeGenD
4. VisceraEyes
5. Sandroba
6. Pyo
7. supersoft
8. nard
Of the three townie claims here, one is town, one is vigilante, and one is mafia.
Of the three detective claims here, two are detectives and one is mafia.
If vigilante claims:
We have one mafia and one town left.
A) If we kill the townie today, vigilante can shoot the mafia tonight and the Mafia will use their KP on me, misder, or the vigilante: the confirmed sane detective or the two confirmed townies.
If they kill me there will be 2 detectives, 2 townies, and 1 mafia left. 1/3*1/2 = 1/6
If they kill a town there will be 3 detectives, 1 townie, and 1 mafia left. 2/3*1/2 = 1/3
B) If we kill the mafia today, vigilante can shoot an unconfirmed detective tonight and have a 1/3 chance of hitting the second mafia, and Mafia will still kill me, misder, the vigilante, or the townie.
If the vigilante hits a Mafia, town wins. 1/3*1/2 = 1/6
If the vigilante hits a detective and Mafia kills me there will be 2 detectives, 2 townies, and 1 mafia left. 2/3*1/4*1/2 = 1/12
If the vigilante hits a detective and Mafia kills a townie there will be 3 detectives, 1 townie, and 1 mafia tonight. 2/3*3/4*1/2 = 1/4
Chance of 2/2/1: 3/12 25%
Chance of 3/1/1: 7/12 58%
Chance of win: 2/12 17%
I think that the vigilante claiming is our best course of action. Fixed a fraction and put percentages.
All of that is a false premise - neither you nor misder is "confirmed." Stop blue hunting.
Vigi shouldn't need to claim unless he's about to be lynched. If mafia want to waste KP hunting Vigi, that simply gives time for the sane DT to actually know he's sane/get more checks, while making it easier for the Vigi to actually hit the mafia false-claiming VT.
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imo we should go for a dt instead of a townie - vigi will be able to hide longer. this means we have to decide between sinani206, sandroba, supersoft and me.
for me nobody is confirmed green/blue yet.
not really sure who to vote (except not me of course) but probaby sinani206 for agressively trying to convince everybody he is confirmed or sandroba (dont think he got framed on night1 and want to know if im sane or not)
i would urge vigi for his own survival to go for the mafia on dt side first and stay undercover :D
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ahm this is pretty convincing. Since already one of the 4 DTs is dead, we lynch on of the DT group so our vig won't get hurt.
i'll go for sandroba/sinani206 then. Nards plan seems reasonable so far, so he's not the prime target for me, for now.
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It doesn't make much sense for mafia to go after town - vigi is a double edge sword so it seems unlikely that they'd actively hunt for him. They are much better off trying to eliminate sane DT's. That's why town lynching a DT makes very little sense. Lynching a townie is by far the safest play because if we happen to target the vigi, he can just claim (mafia can't false claim without exposing themselves to the vigi). And if we decrease the number of townies, we increase the chance that the vigi will be able to make his shot count. Remember that the vigi has three possible town targets, while he has 4 possible DT targets. Reducing claimed towns is obviously the better choice until the vigi has used his shot or we confirmed who the mafia claiming VT is.
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I like nards plan. If we lynch sinani today there are 2 outcomes:
1)He is scum: good
2)He is town: Mysder is confirmed town: Mafia has to shoot him. We can confirm our sanity by having an extra night of checks + townie flips. Vig claims and shoots 1 of the remaining townies. We lynch the other tomorrow. We have 100% of lynching scum.
Vote:Sinani206
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Also regarding number 2) if vig claims: We have 2 confirmed townies to confirm our sanity by night1. He also has 50% chance of hitting scum with his shot giving us 2 confirmed townies alive day2.
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On July 03 2011 05:31 sandroba wrote:
I like nards plan. If we lynch sinani today there are 2 outcomes:
1)He is scum: good
2)He is town: Mysder is confirmed town: Mafia has to shoot him. We can confirm our sanity by having an extra night of checks + townie flips. Vig claims and shoots 1 of the remaining townies. We lynch the other tomorrow. We have 100% of lynching scum.
Vote:Sinani206
What??? if he's actually town, then why would it be a good idea to kill him? Also, sinani flipping green doesn't clear misder since the framer can make one of them appear to be town.
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LoL, didn't know that. K then lynching a townie is the best move.
##Unvote
I still want to hear from VisceraEyes and RoL before I vote. Considering voting for pyo for being so upset that I voted sinani and knowing so much about framer mechanics.
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Sandroba how closely have you been reading the thread?
We are lynching a townıe claim. Lynching detective means less chance for scum to mess up in claiming.
Waiting on ROL and VE.
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On July 03 2011 02:41 Pyo wrote:
It doesn't make much sense for mafia to go after town - vigi is a double edge sword so it seems unlikely that they'd actively hunt for him. They are much better off trying to eliminate sane DT's. That's why town lynching a DT makes very little sense. Lynching a townie is by far the safest play because if we happen to target the vigi, he can just claim (mafia can't false claim without exposing themselves to the vigi). And if we decrease the number of townies, we increase the chance that the vigi will be able to make his shot count. Remember that the vigi has three possible town targets, while he has 4 possible DT targets. Reducing claimed towns is obviously the better choice until the vigi has used his shot or we confirmed who the mafia claiming VT is.
I agree with this plan, and I think we should vote for VisceraEyes. He hasn't been too active and he had a post that seemed pretty scummy to me. On top of that it does make much more sense for us to just get rid of the VT's first, since the mafia has to kill the DT's because they pose more of a threat to mafia. Currently we know 1/4 of both the town and DT list scum, but we also know that the town list has a vigilante who can confirm himself tonight, which means lynching townies is a 1/3, and then the vigi would have a 50% chance to kill a mafia tonight.
On that note, assuming Sinani is NOT lying and misder appeared town, our best action is to kill me, VisceraEyes, or Pyo. Since Pyo suggested this plan, I know I am not scum and VisceraEyes looks bad from his one post I have read in this thread, I'd say lynch him. Then let the vigi shoot tonight at whoever he wants.
There are two ways to work this out. If the vig hits the mafia or we lynch the mafia, rest of the group is confirmed. In the worst case scenario We end up tomorrow with one vig and one mafia left, at which point we can focus on the DT list and narrow them down knowing who the one confirmed mafia is in the VT group.
With that being said
##Vote: VisceraEyes
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VisceraEyes is being replaced by Fishball.
Lol, wrote this before RoL's post. Feel free to still vote for him, I'll change your vote to fishball unless you revote.
Fishball will be out until later tonight, just fyi
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Fuck it, just kill fishball.
##Vote: Fishball
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On July 03 2011 16:38 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Fuck it, just kill fishball.
##Vote: Fishball
lol, you're just mad I caught you red handed in the other game.
I just got home, 2am, and somewhat drunk ;/
I have no idea wtf is going on with so many accusations. Actually I don't even remember why I subbed in. Oh yeah, I died in that game and had nothing better to do.
Right now I think we have 2 votes for Mister, 1 for sinani, 1 for RoL, and 1 for myself.
I'll go ahead and put my vote on RoL.
Reason? Fuck it, just kill Rol.
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I felt something was missing
##Vote: RebirthOfLeGenD
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you know, I am just going to avoid this whole debate.
I am the vigilante.
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great, vigi claimed...
you townie claims can settle your personal business, i will put my vote sandroba - I'M SANE I KNOW IT!!! *eye twitches*
##vote: Sandroba
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nard, why vote sandroba now instead of when you claimed?
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This is war!
##Vote: nard
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Seriously though, we should lynch a townie today.
##Unvote
##Vote: Fishball
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On July 04 2011 01:22 sandroba wrote:
Seriously though, we should lynch a townie today.
##Unvote
##Vote: Fishball
haha, this just sounds sooo scummy.
##vote: sandroba
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I don't care. There's no way for town to lose this game if we lynch from the townie pool. Use your head.
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Just to make things clear, the person with the most votes at 8:00 pm EST tonight will be lynched. If there is a tie, the person who reached the most votes first will be lynched. If Person A has 4 and then Person B gets 4 and then Person A drops to 3 and then goes back to 4, Person B will be lynched. I hope that clears up any confusion. If not, too bad :p
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VOTE TALLY BRO ASAP PLEASE
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I still think that Misder is the mafia, but mafia last second vote changing to sandroba could really mess with things, so I'm going to change my vote to Fishball to ensure that a townie is lynched tonight.
Basically, RoL just claimed vigi, so if he's lying the real vigi will kill him tonight. If he's telling the truth, either Fishball is mafia and we can now focus on DTs or Fishball is town leaving RoL to decide between me or Misder to kill tonight. Even if he for whatever reason decides kills me, town will know who to lynch the following day.
##Unvote
##Vote: Fishball
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Vote counts:
1. deconduo
2. sinani206--------------- RebirthOfLeGenD
3. RebirthOfLeGenD--- Fishball
4. Fishball------------------ RebirthOfLeGenD
5. Sandroba--------------- Sinani206 Fishball
6. Pyo----------------------- Misder Fishball
7. supersoft--------------- Misder sandroba
8. nard---------------------- Sandroba
9. Misder------------------- Fishball
Fishball (4)
RebirthOfLeGenD (2)
Sandroba (2)
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Well, good morning, or afternoon rather.
So if RoL is the vigilante, there is a lying blue among sinani206, Sandroba, supersoft and nard.
I'll give RoL benefit of doubt, and take my vote off him for now. That leaves myself, Pyo and Misder claiming green. Unless there is a green who claimed blue (which is stupid if there is any), one out of the three greens are lying; Much better odds than hunting the lying blue.
I am putting my vote on Misder, as he was brought up by others earlier, and I don't like the fact that he plain switched his vote onto me right after RoL claimed.
Any blues that are still voting for RoL or Sandroba should focus their votes on the greens.VisceraEyes was killed off in RTM, mod killed in Closed Casket since he felt he was being bullied by vets, so he wanted to leave this game since he wasn't in the mood to play anymore. I know I'm green and I'm here trying to convince you.
Pyo has been rather helpful and active thus far, and I'm obviously not going to vote for myself, so I'm putting my vote on Misder.
##Unvote
##Vote: Misder
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On July 04 2011 02:17 Pyo wrote:
I still think that Misder is the mafia, but mafia last second vote changing to sandroba could really mess with things, so I'm going to change my vote to Fishball to ensure that a townie is lynched tonight.
Basically, RoL just claimed vigi, so if he's lying the real vigi will kill him tonight. If he's telling the truth, either Fishball is mafia and we can now focus on DTs or Fishball is town leaving RoL to decide between me or Misder to kill tonight. Even if he for whatever reason decides kills me, town will know who to lynch the following day.
##Unvote
##Vote: Fishball
The way I am going to play this is to kill Misder last. From a mafia stand point its a stupid claim, because then once Misder dies sinani is obviously the other scum. So I won't kill Misder, and if I end up being wrong and misder is scum then you know both mafia.
Problem solved!
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On July 04 2011 04:51 Fishball wrote:
Well, good morning, or afternoon rather.
So if RoL is the vigilante, there is a lying blue among sinani206, Sandroba, supersoft and nard.
I'll give RoL benefit of doubt, and take my vote off him for now. That leaves myself, Pyo and Misder claiming green. Unless there is a green who claimed blue (which is stupid if there is any), one out of the three greens are lying; Much better odds than hunting the lying blue.
I am putting my vote on Misder, as he was brought up by others earlier, and I don't like the fact that he plain switched his vote onto me right after RoL claimed.
Any blues that are still voting for RoL or Sandroba should focus their votes on the greens.VisceraEyes was killed off in RTM, mod killed in Closed Casket since he felt he was being bullied by vets, so he wanted to leave this game since he wasn't in the mood to play anymore. I know I'm green and I'm here trying to convince you.
Pyo has been rather helpful and active thus far, and I'm obviously not going to vote for myself, so I'm putting my vote on Misder.
##Unvote
##Vote: Misder
I have the same thoughts as you on pyo, but I view the only logical way to go about this is killing Misder last, since he is a most likely townie or we win the game by knowing him and sinani are scum. So unfortunately that means lynch or kill you, then lynch or kill Pyo. Pyo looked down, so I opted to try to lynch Viscera and hope for the best case scenario. If you aren't scum then i will vigi Pyo tonight leaving Misder as the only other possible scum, and since he is not a likely "Cover" candidate, or even a check candidate I would assume that Sinani must be lying.
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On July 04 2011 02:17 Pyo wrote:
I still think that Misder is the mafia, but mafia last second vote changing to sandroba could really mess with things, so I'm going to change my vote to Fishball to ensure that a townie is lynched tonight.
Basically, RoL just claimed vigi, so if he's lying the real vigi will kill him tonight. If he's telling the truth, either Fishball is mafia and we can now focus on DTs or Fishball is town leaving RoL to decide between me or Misder to kill tonight. Even if he for whatever reason decides kills me, town will know who to lynch the following day.
##Unvote
##Vote: Fishball
If you think Misder is Mafia, it doesn't make sense to vote for me. Just to prevent Mafia from a last second vote change? There are only 2 Mafia. One of them is very likely among the green and can't easily change his vote; That's like screaming "lynch me please". If the other Mafia wanted to do a last second move, he is basically giving himself out. Like mentioned, everyone should have their votes among the greens now.
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On July 04 2011 05:02 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2011 04:51 Fishball wrote:
Well, good morning, or afternoon rather.
So if RoL is the vigilante, there is a lying blue among sinani206, Sandroba, supersoft and nard.
I'll give RoL benefit of doubt, and take my vote off him for now. That leaves myself, Pyo and Misder claiming green. Unless there is a green who claimed blue (which is stupid if there is any), one out of the three greens are lying; Much better odds than hunting the lying blue.
I am putting my vote on Misder, as he was brought up by others earlier, and I don't like the fact that he plain switched his vote onto me right after RoL claimed.
Any blues that are still voting for RoL or Sandroba should focus their votes on the greens.VisceraEyes was killed off in RTM, mod killed in Closed Casket since he felt he was being bullied by vets, so he wanted to leave this game since he wasn't in the mood to play anymore. I know I'm green and I'm here trying to convince you.
Pyo has been rather helpful and active thus far, and I'm obviously not going to vote for myself, so I'm putting my vote on Misder.
##Unvote
##Vote: Misder I have the same thoughts as you on pyo, but I view the only logical way to go about this is killing Misder last, since he is a most likely townie or we win the game by knowing him and sinani are scum. So unfortunately that means lynch or kill you, then lynch or kill Pyo. Pyo looked down, so I opted to try to lynch Viscera and hope for the best case scenario. If you aren't scum then i will vigi Pyo tonight leaving Misder as the only other possible scum, and since he is not a likely "Cover" candidate, or even a check candidate I would assume that Sinani must be lying.
That's a rather long route that you choose, and you are assuming that Mafia will let you live. If you are likely to hit one of their own, I'm sure they would rather kill you and waste another lynch to buy another cycle.
To me, I would lynch Misder. If he is red, me and Pyo are 99% cleared. If Misder flips green, and if you are still alive, I wouldn't have a problem if you have to hit me, of if Town lynches me then.
Regardless, I honestly don't see how Mafia can win this game. After we sort out the lone Mafia among the greens, it's a matter of time before the DT's can figure out the math game and lynch the blue poser.
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On July 04 2011 05:02 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2011 04:51 Fishball wrote:
Well, good morning, or afternoon rather.
So if RoL is the vigilante, there is a lying blue among sinani206, Sandroba, supersoft and nard.
I'll give RoL benefit of doubt, and take my vote off him for now. That leaves myself, Pyo and Misder claiming green. Unless there is a green who claimed blue (which is stupid if there is any), one out of the three greens are lying; Much better odds than hunting the lying blue.
I am putting my vote on Misder, as he was brought up by others earlier, and I don't like the fact that he plain switched his vote onto me right after RoL claimed.
Any blues that are still voting for RoL or Sandroba should focus their votes on the greens.VisceraEyes was killed off in RTM, mod killed in Closed Casket since he felt he was being bullied by vets, so he wanted to leave this game since he wasn't in the mood to play anymore. I know I'm green and I'm here trying to convince you.
Pyo has been rather helpful and active thus far, and I'm obviously not going to vote for myself, so I'm putting my vote on Misder.
##Unvote
##Vote: Misder I have the same thoughts as you on pyo, but I view the only logical way to go about this is killing Misder last, since he is a most likely townie or we win the game by knowing him and sinani are scum. So unfortunately that means lynch or kill you, then lynch or kill Pyo. Pyo looked down, so I opted to try to lynch Viscera and hope for the best case scenario. If you aren't scum then i will vigi Pyo tonight leaving Misder as the only other possible scum, and since he is not a likely "Cover" candidate, or even a check candidate I would assume that Sinani must be lying.
I'm actually fine with that since it is grounded in reasonably sound logic (unlike 90% of the ideas/strategies proposed so far).
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Not killing the vig claim...
##Vote: Fishball
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On July 04 2011 07:43 sinani206 wrote:
Not killing the vig claim...
##Vote: Fishball
right...
##Unvote
##Vote: Fishball
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Sorry I'm a bit late, night post incoming
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and here I sit wondering why I had agreed to wipe up VisceraEyes's butt before reading the thread. What a waste of energy.
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![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/mbXWvl.jpg) Night 1
After a very tense day, the survivors gathered together in the common room of the bunker. Some had taken an active role in searching for the murderers, and some had taken a much more passive role, more eager to observe others than to generate conflicts themselves. It was time to decide who would be killed to preserve the peace.
One by one, the people stepped forward and pronounced a name. There was some variation, but certainly a clear leader.
After the first time his name was called, Fishball began chewing nervously on his lip. But as more people added their votes to his name, he nervously started to back away from the group. "Hey now, I've been contributing to this group a lot more than other people... why are you turning on me?"
"Hold him!" rang a cry, and Fishball was at once held in place by several pairs of strong hands. They led him to the chamber lock at the entrance to the bunker. "We are not murderers!" cried one of the small mob. "We will simply return you to the outside world." Fishball was flung into the airlock, and the passage was sealed. The survivors crowded around the small viewport as the main entrance was opened.
Immediately, they could see that something was not right with what had been their home. The light that shone from the now-opened seal had a faint blue-green tint. Fishball began sweating profusely, and turned to claw at the door. "Let me in! It was the others, they made me! Help!". His movements began to slow, and he began coughing, vomiting up red blood. As the harsh radiation ate at his very cells, the survivors rejoiced! They had found the killer!
But one question nagged at the back of their minds. Who were these "others" Fishball had mentioned? He was a known schizophrenic, but he only had two known personalities. Could there possibly be more psychotics among them? The resolved to abide by their preset rules. and re-assess things in the morning.
Fishball the Mafia Goon has been killed.
Please send in night actions by 8:00 pm EST July 4th.
+ Show Spoiler +Not to make a pun of Fishball's above post, but he did inherit a shitty situation lol
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ROL, Pyo, Misder clear. Sinani almost 100% clear.
Thinking about whether vig should shoot: I'd like supersoft dead though.
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On July 04 2011 05:50 Pyo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2011 05:02 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On July 04 2011 04:51 Fishball wrote:
Well, good morning, or afternoon rather.
So if RoL is the vigilante, there is a lying blue among sinani206, Sandroba, supersoft and nard.
I'll give RoL benefit of doubt, and take my vote off him for now. That leaves myself, Pyo and Misder claiming green. Unless there is a green who claimed blue (which is stupid if there is any), one out of the three greens are lying; Much better odds than hunting the lying blue.
I am putting my vote on Misder, as he was brought up by others earlier, and I don't like the fact that he plain switched his vote onto me right after RoL claimed.
Any blues that are still voting for RoL or Sandroba should focus their votes on the greens.VisceraEyes was killed off in RTM, mod killed in Closed Casket since he felt he was being bullied by vets, so he wanted to leave this game since he wasn't in the mood to play anymore. I know I'm green and I'm here trying to convince you.
Pyo has been rather helpful and active thus far, and I'm obviously not going to vote for myself, so I'm putting my vote on Misder.
##Unvote
##Vote: Misder I have the same thoughts as you on pyo, but I view the only logical way to go about this is killing Misder last, since he is a most likely townie or we win the game by knowing him and sinani are scum. So unfortunately that means lynch or kill you, then lynch or kill Pyo. Pyo looked down, so I opted to try to lynch Viscera and hope for the best case scenario. If you aren't scum then i will vigi Pyo tonight leaving Misder as the only other possible scum, and since he is not a likely "Cover" candidate, or even a check candidate I would assume that Sinani must be lying. I'm actually fine with that since it is grounded in reasonably sound logic (unlike 90% of the ideas/strategies proposed so far).
I have decided to not analyze this game at all and approach it on a pure logic basis. On that note, I might end the game with my next post.
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Original Message From REDACTED:
Can a framer frame himself, and can he frame the same person constantly if he so chooses.
Yes and Yes. If a framer frames himself, he returns "Town"
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On July 02 2011 01:01 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
1. deconduo
2. sinani206
3. RebirthOfLeGenD
4. VisceraEyes/Fishball
5. Sandroba
6. Pyo
7. supersoft
8. nard
9. Misder
Updated.
[/quote]
Currently we have players left in the game. Misder, myself, and pyo are confirmed 100% innocent. We know there is a liar in the blues. There are currently 4 remaining blues in the game. After tonight there will be 3, since I am obviously going to kill one. Which means we now have 3-2 scenario tomorrow since the mafia has to kill me.
There is a 25% chance I hit scum by randomly killing a blue.
With the next lynch there is a 33% chance of hitting him, once again based purely off of luck.
The next cycle there is now one VT and two blues left. Now there is a straight 50% chance of victory.
Statistically the mafia has a mere 4% chance of victory assuming we completely guess at who the scum is, those are odds I would take as town. I could theoretically create a list right now of the lynch order for the next two days and if the town agrees to follow it, regardless of what the mafia does, there is only a 4% chance of victory.
Now let's go further into why exactly this mafia is absolutely fucked. Unfortunately we ended up with the framer left, which sucks a bit, but isn't the biggest deal, considering we mathematically dominated the mafia as mentioned above. The town has 1 DT we can be reasonably sure is both sane, and innocent. If I extrapolate this one step further, it leads to a 33% chance of victory with my vig hit, a 50% chance of victory with the lynch, and a 100% chance of victory with the following lynch.
Wait you say, how could this possibly get worse? Well on top of that we have 3 DTs whose checks are all circle jerking each other, so he can't even risk not framing himself otherwise he could just get nailed as scum off the bat, since all he can do is kill the VT's, because any shooting into his blue group would immediately guarantee our victory.
So on that note, I call for the mafia to resign. Statistically you have less than a 4% chance if we ignore all wifom and just randomly do everything. In fact, while I could eliminate sinani from the group because of his DT check on Misder I won't. This would introduce potential mafia Wifom into the equation, meaning a clever/lucky play on Day 1 would of made a guaranteed victory turn into a loss. I'd rather totally ignore it and go with the 96% chance of victory.
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also
![[image loading]](http://img178.imageshack.us/img178/5919/lolrolgf7.jpg)
sup?
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On July 04 2011 11:58 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2011 01:01 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
1. deconduo
2. sinani206
3. RebirthOfLeGenD
4. VisceraEyes/Fishball
5. Sandroba
6. Pyo
7. supersoft
8. nard
9. Misder Updated.
Currently we have players left in the game. Misder, myself, and pyo are confirmed 100% innocent. We know there is a liar in the blues. There are currently 4 remaining blues in the game. After tonight there will be 3, since I am obviously going to kill one. Which means we now have 3-2 scenario tomorrow since the mafia has to kill me.
There is a 25% chance I hit scum by randomly killing a blue.
With the next lynch there is a 33% chance of hitting him, once again based purely off of luck.
The next cycle there is now one VT and two blues left. Now there is a straight 50% chance of victory.
Statistically the mafia has a mere 4% chance of victory assuming we completely guess at who the scum is, those are odds I would take as town. I could theoretically create a list right now of the lynch order for the next two days and if the town agrees to follow it, regardless of what the mafia does, there is only a 4% chance of victory.
Now let's go further into why exactly this mafia is absolutely fucked. Unfortunately we ended up with the framer left, which sucks a bit, but isn't the biggest deal, considering we mathematically dominated the mafia as mentioned above. The town has 1 DT we can be reasonably sure is both sane, and innocent. If I extrapolate this one step further, it leads to a 33% chance of victory with my vig hit, a 50% chance of victory with the lynch, and a 100% chance of victory with the following lynch.
Wait you say, how could this possibly get worse? Well on top of that we have 3 DTs whose checks are all circle jerking each other, so he can't even risk not framing himself otherwise he could just get nailed as scum off the bat, since all he can do is kill the VT's, because any shooting into his blue group would immediately guarantee our victory.
So on that note, I call for the mafia to resign. Statistically you have less than a 4% chance if we ignore all wifom and just randomly do everything. In fact, while I could eliminate sinani from the group because of his DT check on Misder I won't. This would introduce potential mafia Wifom into the equation, meaning a clever/lucky play on Day 1 would of made a guaranteed victory turn into a loss. I'd rather totally ignore it and go with the 96% chance of victory.[/QUOTE]
4% chance is still greater than 0%. However, depending on how DT's check each other tonight, it could become game over. I mean, if I were mafia, I would still play it out and try to pull something clever out of my butt, so I'll encourage the remaining mafia to go for it.
For the sake of ending the game sooner, I would encourage the DT's to check in such a way that would best determine your sanity.
As for the vigi kill, I would recommend either nard or sinani since they were the second two to claim their checks. Mafia would have been foolish to claim right away without hearing some of the other claims or he'd risk outting himself right at the get go.
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Damn you RoL and your bad formatting which messed up my post's formatting...
The part that was actually me talking was the following:
4% chance is still greater than 0%. However, depending on how DT's check each other tonight, it could become game over. I mean, if I were mafia, I would still play it out and try to pull something clever out of my butt, so I'll encourage the remaining mafia to go for it.
For the sake of ending the game sooner, I would encourage the DT's to check in such a way that would best determine your sanity.
As for the vigi kill, I would recommend either nard or sinani since they were the second two to claim their checks. Mafia would have been foolish to claim right away without hearing some of the other claims or he'd risk outting himself right at the get go.
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On July 04 2011 12:21 Pyo wrote:
Damn you RoL and your bad formatting which messed up my post's formatting...
The part that was actually me talking was the following:
4% chance is still greater than 0%. However, depending on how DT's check each other tonight, it could become game over. I mean, if I were mafia, I would still play it out and try to pull something clever out of my butt, so I'll encourage the remaining mafia to go for it.
For the sake of ending the game sooner, I would encourage the DT's to check in such a way that would best determine your sanity.
As for the vigi kill, I would recommend either nard or sinani since they were the second two to claim their checks. Mafia would have been foolish to claim right away without hearing some of the other claims or he'd risk outting himself right at the get go.
I will do whatever I want. Quiet you! Also that is the most generic advice I have ever read.
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On July 04 2011 12:24 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2011 12:21 Pyo wrote:
Damn you RoL and your bad formatting which messed up my post's formatting...
The part that was actually me talking was the following:
4% chance is still greater than 0%. However, depending on how DT's check each other tonight, it could become game over. I mean, if I were mafia, I would still play it out and try to pull something clever out of my butt, so I'll encourage the remaining mafia to go for it.
For the sake of ending the game sooner, I would encourage the DT's to check in such a way that would best determine your sanity.
As for the vigi kill, I would recommend either nard or sinani since they were the second two to claim their checks. Mafia would have been foolish to claim right away without hearing some of the other claims or he'd risk outting himself right at the get go. I will do whatever I want. Quiet you! Also that is the most generic advice I have ever read.
You're not a DT, so I wasn't talking to you. And my advice wasn't as generic as you make it out to be. I meant that the DTs should go for determining their sanity rather than necessarily go for trying to find the remaining scum. In other words some of them should consider checking a confirmed townie rather than just simply "circle jerking" amongst other DTs.
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On July 04 2011 12:33 Pyo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2011 12:24 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On July 04 2011 12:21 Pyo wrote:
Damn you RoL and your bad formatting which messed up my post's formatting...
The part that was actually me talking was the following:
4% chance is still greater than 0%. However, depending on how DT's check each other tonight, it could become game over. I mean, if I were mafia, I would still play it out and try to pull something clever out of my butt, so I'll encourage the remaining mafia to go for it.
For the sake of ending the game sooner, I would encourage the DT's to check in such a way that would best determine your sanity.
As for the vigi kill, I would recommend either nard or sinani since they were the second two to claim their checks. Mafia would have been foolish to claim right away without hearing some of the other claims or he'd risk outting himself right at the get go. I will do whatever I want. Quiet you! Also that is the most generic advice I have ever read. You're not a DT, so I wasn't talking to you. And my advice wasn't as generic as you make it out to be. I meant that the DTs should go for determining their sanity rather than necessarily go for trying to find the remaining scum. In other words some of them should consider checking a confirmed townie rather than just simply "circle jerking" amongst other DTs.
as far using your shot, just shoot whoever. Hell, you can shoot me to make the game more interesting if you want...
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![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/rKfA9.jpg) Stroke of Midnight, N1
RebirthOfLeGenD got everyone up and into the main chamber of the bunker complex. Those who tried to resist quickly found themselves staring down the barrel of his Desert Eagle .50 Caliber Semi-Automatic Pistol, and quickly joined the group. "I have been through all of Fishball's belongings," said RoL, "And I have determined that there is one, and only one, accomplice to his actions!" RoL pulled Pyo and Misder out from the group. "The two of you are innocent beyond doubt. But as for the rest of you, we cannot be sure. So we will now kill you one-by-one. If you are not the killer, you will assist our actions!"
Finally, us VTs get the real power in a game for once thought Pyo.
"Now, where to begin? I guess you should draw straws."
"I'll go get some!", yelled Sandroba, and took off in the direction of his quarters, as supersoft, sinani206, and nard looked at the ground, their faces stony as they realized they could be forced to sacrifice themselves to save fellow Liquidians.
RoL followed Sandroba a short distance back, but when he got to the quarters Sandroba had chosen, he was staring into an enormous firey void, and within the voidstood Sandroba, his eyes literally ablaze as he whispered frenetically under his breath.
"Sandroba! I knew it!", cried RoL, but Sandroba simply smiled back and said, "You are too late, RoL! Prepare to be crushed by my Infernal Dairy Hordes!" And from the fiery gate to hell, countless Infernal Goats began to stream forth, surging toward RoL as the door slammed shut behind him. RoL sucked in his breath; things were going too fast! But he did still have his trusty Deagle! He took careful aim at Sandroba's head, and fired.
And missed.
But the roar of the Desert Eagle was incredible. So incredible, in fact, that it frightened the Infernal Hell-Goats, who begen stampeding back towards Sandroba, crushing him and trampling him to death. When the last goat had been scared back into the hellgate, it suddenly and abruptly vanished, leaving only a scorch mark in what now appeared to be a normal, if spartanly furnished, conference room.
RoL returned to the survivors and told them what had passed, showing them the scorch mark as proof. And they all lived in relative peace and comfort, eventually moving of the bunker and establishing contact with other groups of surviving Liquidians. Society was rebuilt, Liquidia flourished, and then the next Caller game happened. But that's a different story.
Sandroba, the Hellspawn Necromancer (Framer), is dead?
RebirthOfLeGenD, the Vigilante, is Out Of Ammunition.
Pyo, the helpful Vanilla Townie, is sad that townies did not get to flaunt their power.
iGrok, the Bastard Host, thanks everyone for playing this short game, and promises the next one will be much bigger and better, cause GMarshal and I are co-hosting ^^
Town Wins!
Feel free to discuss the setup or anything else.
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Well this was over quickly. My only contribution as co-host was writing the night 0 post, because none of you guys remembered to PM me your actions TT.
Don't let the next one be until after July 22nd, ok? I need to play in that one.
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lol gg
just like i said - i am a sane dt ^_^
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gg, well done RoL [*tips hat]
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GG, sorry for not being much of a challenge. My assumpstion was that people would change their vote due to the quick bandwagon on fishball. Unfortunatelly that's not how it turned out. I had to take a huge risk to have any possibility of winning this =P
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Oh, and thanks to sandroba for helping to write his death scene xD
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So I'm going to write up a post soon detailing why Sinani was obviously Sane Detective and confirmed innocent, and why you guys should be bashing your heads against the wall for saying ridiculous things like "Vigilante don't claim" even though he's a self-confirmed Innocent once he does. While Mafia's chance of winning was slim, the Town was just bad at abusing what was given to them.
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On July 04 2011 16:39 Ace wrote:
So I'm going to write up a post soon detailing why Sinani was obviously Sane Detective and confirmed innocent, and why you guys should be bashing your heads against the wall for saying ridiculous things like "Vigilante don't claim" even though he's a self-confirmed Innocent once he does. While Mafia's chance of winning was slim, the Town was just bad at abusing what was given to them.
I pretty much wrote all of this, which is why the mafia just conceded. Judging by player pool, I doubted the mafia were ballsy enough to fake a townie claim to gain traction, so the entire misder/sinani scum team thing was retarded. On top of which, while if Misder was red that situation could of been used to kill both mafia, inversely you could use it to confirm two townies in two separate player pools, which was more valuable and less risky since if you fail to prove misder being town by killing everyone else then you have that link to sinani.
I was going to claim regardless, I wasn't sure when I was going to do it, then when fishball subbed in I decided it would be a nice docile way to put him down while proceeding with my plan. To be honest, the only play fishball REALLY had was to claim vigilante, which would of kept him alive until the night cycle, but all that would do is allow me to get a free mafia kill on fishball, confirming rest of the greens while allowing us to fire our lynch into the blues instead, which actually created an even worse scenario for the mafia. To be honest, there really wasn't much fishball could have done. At the very least this game needed a role blocker.
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On July 04 2011 16:39 Ace wrote:
So I'm going to write up a post soon detailing why Sinani was obviously Sane Detective and confirmed innocent, and why you guys should be bashing your heads against the wall for saying ridiculous things like "Vigilante don't claim" even though he's a self-confirmed Innocent once he does. While Mafia's chance of winning was slim, the Town was just bad at abusing what was given to them.
Oh and to further expand on this. When you see 3 red checks and 1 green check and you know there was a 50/50 shot of being sane or paranoid, it is more likely the 1 claiming green is being honest, even if you assume the dead detective was sane.
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that should read *not abusing what was given to them.
@Rol: Fishball can't claim Vigilante. None of the mafia can as thats also an auto loss like you said. The only play the Mafia has is: 1 claim Town, 1 claim Detective. Then the Detective faking Mafia has to keep giving "Guilty" results and I'll explain why about that in a second also. The Framer isn't even worth worrying about as within 2 Nights the Detectives and Vigilante can make him irrelevant.
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Yeah, I know. Fishball was honestly fucked and could literally do nothing, a vigi claim would of only saved him for that day, but possibly creating an even larger problem. His only chance might of been trying to lynch another green and allow me and him to resolve our issues with a vigi hit at night, but the town would have to be retarded to go along with a kill a green plan.
I am definitely interested in hearing about why the mafia detective can't ever claim someone is innocent, though, so I await that post. I would think it could work in a wifomish way in case he dies, or wants more sway with townies. That's about all I can think of to justify doing it.
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Ok so when I first signed up for the game I hadn't read the OP carefully enough. I'm not sure if I thought there were 3 mafia, a roleblocker, or what. Someway somehow I just wasn't paying enough attention to it.
When I came back a day or two before the game started and jotted down the role list I was thinking "there's no way Mafia are going to win most of the time". Usually when I'm looking at a setup to "break" one of the most important things to do is find out how fast the Town can confirm players. If that's the case it's almost going to be broken. If the Mafia have no way of killing confirmed Town fast enough then it's surely going to be broken. A little Mafia theory first.
The most fundamental thing about the game of Mafia is that in basic terms the Town's starting advantage is the sheer amount of numbers they have. However this is countered by their pitiful amount of initial information. Town usually loses the game when they can't find out enough information about each player fast enough. Conversely Mafia have low numbers but a huge information advantage just knowing each other. This allows them to punish mistakes by the Town if given enough time. If a game attempts to mess with this dynamic then something has to be compensated for one side or the other in an attempt to balance the teams.
In this game though the Town has not only the numbers, but even more information than the Mafia. While the Mafia starts off knowing who isn't Town, by Day 1 the Town knows who likely IS Town. This is a monstrous thing because well, when the uninformed majority becomes the informed majority shit goes bad for the smaller group.
How I figured out how to break the Game
First and foremost I'm not trying to be cocky or even make myself look super smart. I'm also not trying to rag on iGrok's hosting/balance abilities. This was interesting just because I wanted to see if the players in the game would realize what they had to work with. I wasn't the only one who quickly came to a conclusion on how to run wild in this, as my PM conversations with Qatol and Incongito showed. In fact I think with both of them we had some small differences in actions the Town could take (No Lynch vs Lynch) which funnily enough still ended up with the Town having a major advantage anyway.
Now onto the logic puzzle. As I explained earlier in the thread the Town should start the game off on Night 0 claiming. For purposes of supremely breaking the game I'm going to go with the most difficult route for the Mafia to beat because we're assuming everyone is playing up to their best. That being said the Vigilante could claim Night 0 and the Mafia would still lose. It's a mistake to believe that killing the Vigilante is going to help that much. It ONLY helps if he gets caught without claiming. Read and see why.
Night 0 either no one claims or everyone claims Vanilla Town. This is done to protect Detectives/Vigi if people really care that much. The OTHER route is to have all the Detectives claim and tell them who to investigate or let them random. There is absolutely NOTHING the Mafia can do about this. The Framer is irrelevant in this game and is just a small annoyance. By itself it can't do anything.
Once everyone claims the Mafia only has one strategy: 1 of them claim Detective, the other claims Vanilla Town. This is the only strategy because if they both claim the same thing there is a pool of auto-confirmed Town on the other side. Not the most ideal situation.
As soon as this happens on Day 1 the Vigilante claims. The town this game made the mistake of telling the Vigilante not to claim. Why would you? Once he claims the game is just going to end faster. You have a confirmed Town player that can not be counter claimed. If the Mafia even think of doing so the real Vigilante shoots him at night and once again, the game is almost over.
Once the Vigilante claims you have him decide what order the Detectives reveal. This is great since a pro-town source is picking the order. This means that the lying Scum DT can't wait till the end to fake his investigation. Of course, this also doesn't matter and I'll explain why when we get to the Detectives a bit later. Now that the Vigilante is out in the open and the Detectives revealed their results here is where the Town has a decision to make:
Lynch or No Lynch. The issue here is the Town either runs through the VT list asap by killing everyone or plays around with the idea of getting a better lynch Day 2. Imo if no one stands out as being Scummy just No Lynch. Your Vigilante is going to shoot tonight anyway. The good thing about if you do lynch and hit Scum on the first try the remaining Scum can't win unless some really bad stuff happens. Which it won't if the Town is playing with their heads on straight.
Whatever happens this is where the Framer becomes irrelevant. On Night 1, the Vigilante calls his shot. The Town split's their Detectives at this point: 1-3, depending on their results the previous Night check the Vigilante assuming they haven't. This is important as a confirmed Town player gets checked meaning the Framer can't do ANYTHING to him. Likewise the OTHER checks can go to the player the Vigilante is going to hit. Once this guy flips you'll know his alignment. The Framer can't touch either of them because on Day 3 the entire Town will know.
Within 2 Nights this is what the Town has assuming a No lynch and no dead Mafia:
1 confirmed pro-town player
2 sets of detective checks
2 pools of players with a few confirmed players
Even if the Mafia kill the Vigilante Night 1, the Detectives and remaining VTs will clean up the rest as the next Day they can mislynch dropping it to 5 town vs 2 Mafia. Even with a mislynch the previous day and 4 Town vs 2 Mafia the Town is still almost going to win with all the information available. "But Ace how is that possible? The Town won't know how to go about figuring DT sanities!"
Well actually, they can. Very easily at that. Look at how easy it was in this past game:
With deconduo dead the Town was left with 3 real detectives and 1 fake. Before even looking at that let's examine this little rule:
If the day rolls around and 3 Detectives say they found Innocents, one of them is surely lying.
There is no way this can happen unless BOTH of the Sane Detectives investigated the same person. If they didn't then someone is lying.
When sinani showed up as the only one with an Innocent verdict he was confirmed Innocent himself. How?
First assume deconduo is Paranoid:
His result gives you a guilty.
nard gives you a guilty
sandroba gives you a guilty
supersoft gives you a guilty
sinani gives you an innocent.
4 guilty results and 1 Innocent. Even If Misder (sinani's check) was/wasn't Framed, then it would mean that
A.) 2 of supersoft/nard/sandroba are Sane AND Sinani would be lying.
Sinani would be scum because he can't be Paranoid DT getting Innocent results. If this is the case then 2 of the 3 previous players found Scum for sure.
Except OOPS! - one of them (sandroba) checked RoL and got a Scum result. RoL claimed Vigilante so you know he's confirmed Town. This means that sandroba is either Scum, or Rol got framed and sandroba is Sane. If that's the case then it is possible that sandroba is Sane, sinani is Sane, nard is Paranoid, deconduo is Paranoid, and supersoft is lying Scum. But if RoL got Framed, then Misder didn't! So then sinani can't be scum along with sandroba. Only one of them can.
But looking at it with duo being sane: With so many guilty results that means that for sinani's check to be false deconduo has to be sane. Sinani getting innocent means he can't ever be paranoid. This means that 2 of the 3 remaining would have to be paranoid AND sinani would have to lying (again) and of coursewe go back to Misder being framed which would confirm the other 3 guys. This just doesn't add up because once again the problem becomes RoL can't be framed while Misder is with sandroba getting a guilty. He'd have to be a Paranoid detective but then how would nard get a guilty on him? Ok nard is Paranoid. But ok then how did supersoft get a guilty? Oh he's Paranoid too?
Basically what this comes down to is the fact that a Paranoid detective always gets a Guilty result. This is crucial because any Innocent result means you're Sane or lying. The Mafia can't fake an Innocent result because it's akin to faking the SANE detective. I know this is somewhat confusing but look at it like this:
If 3 people claim they found 3 innocent players then one has to be lying. Framer or not there is no way for there to ever be 3 innocent claims. Why? Because there are a maximum of 2 Sane detectives. They are the ONLY players that will see Innocent. Even a Paranoid Detective finding an Innocent, or a Framed Mafia turned Innocent sees Guilty.
If there are 2 people claiming Innocent then this means it's up to a bit of looking at who they investigated. Even if duo was Sane, the best that sandroba could have done in claiming he found RoL to be Innocent was living one more night. Why?
duo unknown
sinani finds innocent
sandroba finds innocent
nard finds sandroba guilty
supersoft finds pyo guilty
even giving sinani and sandroba the benefit of the doubt:
nard or supersoft would have to be faking their investigations. The Town could kill one of them via lynch and shoot the other that night flipping them both innocent. OR the the town could play it safe and just no lynch, forcing sinani/supersoft to investigate RoL and having nard/sandroba investigate someone from the Townie pool that RoL wants to shoot that night. The only way for the Mafia to win this situation is for the Town to lynch AND shoot without thinking ahead. The Framer is irrelevant because since one of sandroba/sinani has to be telling the truth and they both found innocent he can't do anything anyway. The other issue is that even with a perfect 2/2 split - Pyo himself knows he's innocent. If someone wanted to work the other angle and say: Assume pyo is innocent and got framed all the town would have to do is shoot Pyo at night. sandroba would have to lie about his check by guessing nards sanity! Remember he's faking a sane DT here: if he says Pyo was innocent last night and nard says he wasn't then the mafia is between these 2 and Pyo was framed. Sandroba would have to once again fake Sane DT and say Pyo showed up guilty while also framing him on the same night. Unfortunately this also works against them because sinani/supersoft are checking RoL! sinani would see that RoL is Innocent, while supersoft would see him Guilty. That would confirm sinani, and almost confirm supersoft as Paranoid. The Framer can't frame both of the targets and 1 of these guys, most likely 2 will be confirmed on this second check.
If 1 person claims Innocent this was covered before. What it comes down to is the fake DT having to act like a Paranoid DT because the Sane detectives are easy to figure out just from who flips Innocent. This is another reason why the game can be broken: The Town can literally sit around and do so many moves to figure out who is legit while the Mafia has to get lucky and think about their fake checks. They ALSO have to hope that if they kill a Sane Detective that they guess right and get the perfect split of 2/2, and then have to hope the Town doesn't No lynch AND then have to hope they don't get bullied into a perfect checking situation. After all of that they then have to hope none of the Vanilla Town get smart and use themselves as a reference point, or hope no checked the Vigilante. Which is a small hope because even without that the Detectives that didn't check him can check Night 1.
To top it off, the Town KNOWS what the Mafia's starting strategy is. Add in some scumhunting and really this is just a bunch of guys running around a rat trap. Even in the best case scenarios (the mafia guessing right and getting perfect DT splits) that still doesn't address what happens if the Town decides to ignore the Detectives and go the other way: start checking Vanillas and go with a No lynch Day 1. Same result except that what's even worse is the Vanilla pool is smaller. So the Mafia have to kill a DT that same night, which makes looking back at the Dead DTs Night 0 result even easier.
This game was over when the Mafia even attempted to play it.
ETA: There are also a few other ways to do it. You can do things like this:
Assume sinani is lying about his claim and is Scum.
nard has to be Paranoid or sandroba is framed
if sandroba is framed then Rol can't be framed.
This means supersoft's check makes him Paranoid because Pyo can't also be framed.
At this point deconduo if Paranoid:
supersoft is paranoid
nard paranoid
deconduo paranoid. Can't be 3 paranoid DTs.
Set nard to sane:
supersoft paranoid
deconduo paranoid
nard Sane (sees sandroba guilty = sandroba framed)
sandroba Sane sees RoL guilty (confirmed innocent)
This can't work either. 2 sane detectives can't see 2 innocents as guilty.
Do it another way and assume duo was Sane:
deconduo is sane
supersoft is sane or paranoid
sandroba is sane or paranoid
nard is sane or paranoid
Only thing that works here is sandroba to be sane and see Rol guilty via framing. That means nard is paranoid and supersoft is also. This is the only path that works out for Mafia by assuming that sinani is lying about his claim. So you have:
duo as sane
sandroba as sane
nard as paranoid
supersoft as paranoid
sinani lying
Of course at this point the Town just says ok. No lynch. Tonight let the Mafia shoot and have RoL shoot a claimed Vanilla. sandroba/supersoft check the same target tonight (the one being shot by RoL). nard/sinani check RoL. No matter what result comes back at this point it's down to sandroba/sinani as nard and supersoft would be confirmed Paranoid detectives. Sucks doesn't it?
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nice post Ace, I admit I didn't put anywhere near as much thought into it, but the game didn't seem to require it. I had a few questions that I will address tomorrow, because for now I need to sleep.
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Thanks Ace for that writeup. Its much more fleshed out than mine.
This game was going to be somewhat difficult for Mafia, I knew that from the start. This game went through over a dozen different setups while it was in queue, including a 9 vigilante last-man-standing closed setup - maybe Paranoid Mafia was just destined to be a bastard game from the start. When the time came though, I thought I had a reasonably balanced setup. A simple and stupid mistake completely fucked up this game, and I didn't even catch it until the fucking postgame chat with Qatol.
I'm not going to really go into why it turned out the way it did unless I'm asked specific questions - this is the probably going to be the low point of my mafia experience. Don't judge me too harshly, I'll come back with more fun setups like Sleeper Cell and mine & GMarshal's Resurrection Mafia.
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Yeah, iGrok told me RoL was the vig after I died and it was pretty easy to deduce that Sandroba and Viscera were the mafia.
GG well played town.
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On July 04 2011 18:47 iGrok wrote:
Thanks Ace for that writeup. Its much more fleshed out than mine.
This game was going to be somewhat difficult for Mafia, I knew that from the start. This game went through over a dozen different setups while it was in queue, including a 9 vigilante last-man-standing closed setup - maybe Paranoid Mafia was just destined to be a bastard game from the start. When the time came though, I thought I had a reasonably balanced setup. A simple and stupid mistake completely fucked up this game, and I didn't even catch it until the fucking postgame chat with Qatol.
I'm not going to really go into why it turned out the way it did unless I'm asked specific questions - this is the probably going to be the low point of my mafia experience. Don't judge me too harshly, I'll come back with more fun setups like Sleeper Cell and mine & GMarshal's Resurrection Mafia.
If you want to keep everything almost the same you can make the Vigilante suicidal: If he shoots Town aligned players he commits suicide.
This way he can't ever claim unless investigated the Night before. If he calls his shot for the next Night and Mafia knows he will hit Town, they just shoot a different Townsperson and now thats 4 dead town players by Day 2. 3 Town vs 2 Mafia to start the day. If the Town lynched someone on Day 1 then it's 2 vs 2 and the game is over as Mafia wins.
If you want to have the Mafia help a bit more as in assuming the Town gets it right and does hit a Scum on Night 1, then you can also hide the count of Sane/Paranoid Detectives. This will make it much harder for the Town to win even though they still have an advantage.
The first suggestion is far more brutal though as that one pretty much means the town can't blatantly be public about what they are doing with the Scum being powerless to stop it.
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On July 04 2011 17:01 Ace wrote:
that should read *not abusing what was given to them.
@Rol: Fishball can't claim Vigilante. None of the mafia can as thats also an auto loss like you said. The only play the Mafia has is: 1 claim Town, 1 claim Detective. Then the Detective faking Mafia has to keep giving "Guilty" results and I'll explain why about that in a second also. The Framer isn't even worth worrying about as within 2 Nights the Detectives and Vigilante can make him irrelevant.
This is what iGrok said to me after I died when I was screwing with him in PM-land until he got mad. Here is the main part.
Optimal mafia play in your place, and if you wanted to keep your streak, was to counter-claim vigi and force the real one to use his shot on you tonight, while they lynch one of the DT. Thats the gamble, that they wouldn't have picked the right DT out of 4 to lynch, and you'd still have 2 votes to use on the lynch as well. If you then shot a Townie, that would leave 1 confirmed townie with no powers, 2 DTs (zero, one, or two of which are paranoid), a confirmed vigi without a shot, and a framer remaining alive. Since town has massclaimed, mafia knows which ones are paranoid and which aren't, but you can force a night of no-action by making the DTs check the confirmed peeps to ascertain their sanity, and if there are sane cops left frame so they think they are paranoid. This gives you another kill to use on one of the confirmed townies. Once again, its a gamble, and this time a little less in scum's favor, and after that night its a 3p game, 2 DT Framer or DT Framer Confirmed T.
So yeah, its challenging as hell. But its still possible, even reasonable so, and you volunteered to sub in man.
To which I replied, "lol".
When I finally had a grasp of the situation yesterday afternoon, I told Sandroba to concede. That's pretty much all I can say.
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lol yeah sorry fish, you were pretty screwed because I literally didn't even care if you were mafia, and just knew if you were the game was essentially over in that moment. The only way iGrok's scenario would have worked is with a roleblocker, there was literally nothing to prevent a mass claim, or allow the mafia to thwart a vigi claim, which tying the town up with roleblocks and shit could have done.
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I'm a little confused, but why wasn't this still a possibility during day 1:
deconduo - sane, killed night 0
sandroba - sane, checked a framed RoL - sees scum
supersoft - paranoid, checked Pyo - sees scum
sinani - lying, claims sane (saw the first two claims so knew it was safe to claim sane)
nard - paranoid, checked sandroba - sees scum
Obviously after night 1, depending on who RoL killed, and who the DTs checked/reported it could it could be determined that this was not the scenario, but how do we know this day 1?
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You aren't which is why I said by Night 1 you will. Also you have to take into account your own innocence. If supersoft investigated you and you know you're innocent that means he's Paranoid or you were framed and he can also be sane. If that happens:
nard has to be paranoid
sandroba also has to be paranoid. Assume sandroba is...
...meaning duo is sane
supersoft also has to be sane so you were framed
sinani claims sane and is lying because he knows Misder is innocent
At this point nard is confirmed Town, and now it just comes down to figuring out if sinani is telling the truth or sandroba/supersoft is lying by switching their investigations on Night 1 to someone you know will be Innocent.
Of course it didn't break down like this because once the Night 1 investigation flipped, if nard sees Innocent then you revise it and know for sure that either sandroba was framed or he's Scum. Now you do the same thing by replacing sinani with sandroba except now you have TWO nights of checks to work with.
The other problem is that for the Night 1 investigations the Scum have to hope the Town gives them the right pair of investigations. Unfortunately not only would nard have flipped Sane, but obviously sinani is also going to find Innocent unless you frame his target. sandroba at this point would have to give a guilty result, which of course is an issue with supersoft also getting a guilty on a confirmed Town. nard getting Innocent, sinani getting innocent, sandroba getting guilty, supersoft getting guilty.
sandroba and supersoft can't BOTH be paranoid. One has to be sane and the other paranoid if you assume sinani is Scum. Since this situation won't work then sinani has to be innocent. Therefore his claim of being a Sane detective is true. You also know that Misder likely couldn't have been framed. For that to happen:
ROL showed up guilty, so sandroba would have to be paranoid or Scum
nard investigated sandroba, so he'd also have to be paranoid or Scum
supersoft investigated you and got guilty, meaning he'd also have to be paranoid/Scum but you know you're Innocent
This means that the only way Misder could have been framed is if between the 3 of you, you all end up in the paranoid/scum lists. Which means duo would have to be sane and 2 of these 3 are Innocent DTs, which confirms sinani as Town. By framing Misder (assuming he was Mafia) the Scum would have inadvertently confirmed the only living Sane detective. Either path you go down at least one of the Detectives will be confirmed, and by Day 2 probably all 3.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://29.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l1wsx1R94S1qzmowao1_500.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ZOgQR.jpg)
