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On July 08 2012 02:49 Hapahauli wrote:
Jingle, I suggest you step outside and go for a walk. After you calm yourself, let me know, and I'll post my questions without the confrontational stuff. Know that I will be aggressively pushing for your lynch if you do not defend yourself.
After I calm myself? I'm perfectly calm, as evidenced by the fact that I'm not following your lead across the line from playing the game to being an asshole. I just don't feel the need to turn a game, which should be fun and relaxing, into some abnoxious dick waving contest, and frankly, it wouldn't be good for the town, either.
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On July 08 2012 02:49 JieXian wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2012 02:36 Hapahauli wrote:On July 07 2012 00:37 JingleHell wrote:
-SNIP-
Actually, if we want to find out who's being scummy, since this is a newbie game, is look for the people who are trying too hard to be the polar opposite of scummy based on the various guides. So look for prolific posters who find a way to turn every single word into a scumslip, are obsessed with analysis, and want to take the lead.
You should find at least two scum that way. In that quote he's obviously attacking lazer and another person (most probably you) what's so special about it >_>
Oh wow I completely misread his tone. GG sir, thanks for pointing that out. God that's my bad.
However, I still believe that statement to be scummy for other reasons. He says that in scarcasm, then promptly goes and starts throwing suspicions about two prolific posters - lazer and me.
In addition, the rest of my case still stands.
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On July 08 2012 02:52 JingleHell wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2012 02:49 Hapahauli wrote:
Jingle, I suggest you step outside and go for a walk. After you calm yourself, let me know, and I'll post my questions without the confrontational stuff. Know that I will be aggressively pushing for your lynch if you do not defend yourself. After I calm myself? I'm perfectly calm, as evidenced by the fact that I'm not following your lead across the line from playing the game to being an asshole. I just don't feel the need to turn a game, which should be fun and relaxing, into some abnoxious dick waving contest, and frankly, it wouldn't be good for the town, either.
Ookay then don't defend yourself. Case closed.
##Lynch JingleHell
Btw, mafia is fun, but it certainly ain't relaxing =D
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And to explain that quote, I'm pointing to the obvious. Yes, it's WIFOM, but if you look at newbie games in general, anyone who's read the guides, who's scum, will frequently be trying their absolute hardest to keep all posts in the active thread from fitting the "top ten ways to spot scum".
Day 2 in XVIII, for example, I caused a mislynch by playing less scummy than the other guy.
Yes, it's WIFOM, but literally 100% of this game can come down to that, so it's basically all down to how you read individuals, at the time. However, it seems to be a reasonable trend that scum activity in newbie games, where people have just started and mostly only have the guides and early info to work with, will be based in trying to avoid the scum tells listed in the guides.
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Gee, did someone forget to repost it without being a dick? I was already nice enough to just answer without that, and he took the time it took to type up as me throwing in the theoretical towel. Too bad he's too busy trying to prove his intelligence to do something productive, like listening to his own advice and calming down.
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On July 08 2012 02:53 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2012 02:49 JieXian wrote:On July 08 2012 02:36 Hapahauli wrote:On July 07 2012 00:37 JingleHell wrote:
-SNIP-
Actually, if we want to find out who's being scummy, since this is a newbie game, is look for the people who are trying too hard to be the polar opposite of scummy based on the various guides. So look for prolific posters who find a way to turn every single word into a scumslip, are obsessed with analysis, and want to take the lead.
You should find at least two scum that way. In that quote he's obviously attacking lazer and another person (most probably you) what's so special about it >_> Oh wow I completely misread his tone. GG sir, thanks for pointing that out. God that's my bad. However, I still believe that statement to be scummy for other reasons. He says that in scarcasm, then promptly goes and starts throwing suspicions about two prolific posters - lazer and me. In addition, the rest of my case still stands.
? He focuses on Lazer until he realised that you were standing between him the desired lynch of Lazer so naturally he argues with you and tries to convince you to change your mind but didn't really attack you like he did with Lazer.
If the time zones were different I'd be doing the same thing. We were both believing in our case with Lazer for finding scumslips everywhere, which is very different from what you're doing.
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(Whoops, I'll apologize to you profusely for that after the game. For now, my in-game persona is to be a condescending asshole.)
Thanks for your defense. I just have two questions for now:
1)1 Explain your justification for lynching LazerMonkey. I didn't notice any evidence or analysis behind your stance, which is suspicious for someone who lead an anti-bandwaggoning charge early in the game.
2) Explain your lack of suspicion for Hopeless1der and the lack of reasoning behind it. You've mentioned that it was a "misread," but I'd like to hear some reasoning. The only reasoning I've seen you use was a false meta read based on Hopeless's "prolific posting" early in the game.
Thanks for your time.
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ok he did attack you a bit but it's different from the attack towards Lazer. It was mostly an attempt to convince you.
Naturally we'd look like shit that hopeless flipped scum but I think you understood his moves wrongly.
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On July 08 2012 03:07 JieXian wrote:
ok he did attack you a bit but it's different from the attack towards Lazer. It was mostly an attempt to convince you.
Naturally we'd look like shit that hopeless flipped scum but I think you understood his moves wrongly.
The problem is that it wasn't an attempt to convince me - it reads as an attempt to spam the thread and provoke me. I'd understand if he tried to break down exactly why he thought Lazer was a better lynch, but he didn't. He relied on vague meta-reads, and when I confronted him about it, he accused me of being Lazer's scumbuddy.
I can break down my view on page 17 if you'd like - I think the mafia motive is pretty clear after a readthrough.
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Again, my misread on Hopeless was due to meta analysis from a currently non-concluded game. Hence why I said multiple times I wasn't going to try and force that opinion.
Lazer was attacking me based on the sex toy thing, and was trying to argue that an early bandwagon was no danger, in a plurality lynch game.
If an early bandwagon based on literally nothing kicks off, and lurkers vote and vanish, you can literally have someone die 40 hours later if nothing conclusive comes up and grabs a lot of votes.
Since that seemed reasonably scummy to me, since I had my horrendous misread on Hopeless, Lazer seemed scummiest at the time. Then, following on that, you came in defending lazer by attacking hopeless (regardless of being correct about hopeless), you were making a more functional defense for Lazer than Lazer himself was.
That made it seem to me that you were trying to force a lynch on hopeless to save Lazer.
Does that thought process make sense? Or did I ramble too much?
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Thanks for the reply, though I still don't think your defense is sufficient.
On July 08 2012 03:18 JingleHell wrote:
Again, my misread on Hopeless was due to meta analysis from a currently non-concluded game. Hence why I said multiple times I wasn't going to try and force that opinion.
What reason do you have not to post your meta on Hopeless - even from a non-concluded game? In addition, how could you have a strong-enough meta read on Hopeless (in an unfinished game) to dismiss my entire case suggesting otherwise? Lastly, the meta-read you were relying on (re: Hopeless's early game "prolific posting") was proven incorrect.
Can you post your meta read on Hopeless?
Lazer was attacking me based on the sex toy thing, and was trying to argue that an early bandwagon was no danger, in a plurality lynch game.
If an early bandwagon based on literally nothing kicks off, and lurkers vote and vanish, you can literally have someone die 40 hours later if nothing conclusive comes up and grabs a lot of votes.
Since that seemed reasonably scummy to me, since I had my horrendous misread on Hopeless, Lazer seemed scummiest at the time. Then, following on that, you came in defending lazer by attacking hopeless (regardless of being correct about hopeless), you were making a more functional defense for Lazer than Lazer himself was.
That made it seem to me that you were trying to force a lynch on hopeless to save Lazer.
I don't understand your view on Lazer's bandwaggoning stance. He made it pretty clear in several posts that he supported such a stance closer to lynch deadline - it was only an early-game objection. Secondly, why did you make no attempt to analyze why Lazer was a better case than Hopeless? Your quote saying "analyzing your case would clutter the thread and be pro-mafia" makes you look really bad - especially in light of the entirety of page 17 being a swinging-dick fest between the two of us.
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On July 05 2012 08:29 JingleHell wrote:
And I made a very strong read against him and another player in XIX, the reads being linked, and was promptly shot N1, after which, when I wasn't pushing at them, they ignored the attacks completely, pointed to WIFOM, and started trying to direct the town. Mislynch #2 ensued.
Hopeless's play is different enough from D1 there, where I won't be convinced he's town unless he flips, that I'm convinced he's town here.
In particular he doesn't seem scared of prolific posting in the early game.
And I prefer substantial pressure. If there's nothing to refute, there's no argument to give off an odor. And the odds of hitting a townie with random votes are way higher than the odds of hitting scum.
That's on page 2 of my filter here. The discussion came from the first Day/Night cycle in XIX, and was incredibly long, but that's the short version of it.
And my view on Lazer's bandwagoning stance, again, comes from the fact that this game is plurality lynch. It doesn't take a majority vote, and if someone gets a lot of votes early in the cycle for no compelling reason (hence impossible to provide a rebuttal against) you can't know people will be active later to fix it. And at that point in the game, we DID have a large number not posting yet.
Lazer's entire case against me revolved around the sex toy discussion, which I assume hurt his pride since it got people posting effectively without us wasting a lot of time arguing about WIFOM. Oh, and my willingness to lynch lurkers if we didn't have any good reads. I think that came up a few times.
Maybe other people don't agree with me on this, but I'm of the opinion, if it's still early game and there's nobody who looks scummy, that people who are indirectly helping the scum by not participating actively are a threat to the town.
And like I said, I've been told several times by people I PMed asking for feedback, that I should try to avoid getting into long, drawn out arguments about the merits of groundless cases, which Lazer's definitely was.
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On July 08 2012 02:17 Hapahauli wrote:Regarding EvulRabbit's vote (and WIFOM/logical choice) - I strongly believe Evul as Mafia would have swung the vote into Lazer's camp. If lazer got lynched and flipped green, it would have thrown the town into absolute chaos. We would have so many targets to chose from, that the three mafia could bandwagon and plurality lynch the non-mafia very easily. @THE_ZEN_MANShow nested quote +On July 07 2012 19:15 The_Zen_Man wrote:
Cant say im too suprised, as my choice was between hope and lazer, and they were about equally scummy too me(lazer obvously more). But for now, lets just wait out the night. We're not content to just "wait out the night" - we need to organize the town, pressure suspicious players, and make reads so we don't take our opinions to the grave. ...and for the 30th time, why is Lazer scummy to you?!?!?!?!?!? I wrote a pretty long post HERE discussing why your suspicions are baseless, yet you're still throwing this around? I want some legitimate answers.
What i meant was that we should give the mafia as little information as possible. I know we need to make reads and stuff, but a good way of not letting your opinons go to the grave and not letting mafia get any information is to post just before the deadline. That way, we have your opinions, and mafia cant use that information in time.
Concerning Lazermonkey, i will answer them d2. I could use the method i described above to do that, but the deadline will be 3 am in sweden, and i dont want to stay up that long.
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@ Jingle
The problem with that page 2 filter post (re: meta on Hopeless) is that it is unclear and false. My commentary is bolded below:
On July 05 2012 08:29 JingleHell wrote:
And I made a very strong read against him and another player in XIX, the reads being linked, and was promptly shot N1, after which, when I wasn't pushing at them, they ignored the attacks completely, pointed to WIFOM, and started trying to direct the town. Mislynch #2 ensued.
(Can you explain this? Can you post the contents you based your D1 read on?)
Hopeless's play is different enough from D1 there, where I won't be convinced he's town unless he flips, that I'm convinced he's town here.
In particular he doesn't seem scared of prolific posting in the early game.
(again, this is wrong, and I put a lot of effort into proving this in my meta analysis, which you claimed to have read)
And I prefer substantial pressure. If there's nothing to refute, there's no argument to give off an odor. And the odds of hitting a townie with random votes are way higher than the odds of hitting scum.
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It's only 9 pm at the moment here in Sweden. You have more than enough time to write what you think about Lazermonkey.
I am actually quite suspicious about you, Zen_Man. You have based all your arguments against Lazermonkey on the assumption you know how Mafia plays. You claim repeatedly that mafia tends to do that and this and therefore Lazer is very suspicious. You do this rather than analyzing Lazer's post in a sense where you point out the flaws in Lazer's argumentation and where these flaws might bring the town later on in the game.
Concerning the Jingle vs Lazer "Is this a bandwagon" discussion. To me it seems like this whole discussion is solely based on Lazer not yet being aware that this is plurality lynch and not majority lynch. To a player aware of the plurality lynch, Jingle's case makes a lot of sense (if people vote early and don't check in to change people will be lynched based on little information). On the other hand, to a player who believes it's a majority lynch Lazer's case makes a lot of sense (early, solitary votes are not "bandwagon" dangerous). I believe that whole discussion is just a misunderstanding.
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About that first part (the time in Sweden). I am an idiot for not removing that. I didn't read Zen_Mans post that well so I began to write that, then when I did under the whole part (about posting right before deadline) I meant to remove it but forgot.
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I saw the filter, but it would be impossible for me to put myself in your shoes and analyze it from your perspective. Can you post your meta reads? Doesn't have to be much, just want a bullet point list on why.
Posting "a lot" is waaay different from "prolific posting." In addition, you posted your read when he had only made 6 posts (after the PM deadline. Furthermore, four of his first 6 posts were one-liners. This doesn't make sense.
I also have a number of objections with your previous post. You summarize your suspicions against lazer (which still are weak IMO), but you don't address my questions regarding your methodology. In particular, how could you have a strong-enough meta read on Hopeless (in an unfinished game) to dismiss my entire case suggesting otherwise?
Furthermore, I find our page 17 discussion extremely suspicious. In particular, the below quote makes you look very bad:
On July 07 2012 05:38 JingleHell wrote:
Well, I could either clutter up the thread by breaking down every individual point of yours that I don't find particularly compelling, which I'm sure scum would love, since chaos and distraction are their tactics...
-SNIP-
This looks like an excuse for not posting analysis to me. What is your justification for not attempting to prove that Lazer's case was better than Hopeless's? You didn't even attempt an analysis, or even a counteranalysis after I dissected TheZenMan's case against Lazer.
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On July 08 2012 03:45 The_Zen_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2012 02:17 Hapahauli wrote:Regarding EvulRabbit's vote (and WIFOM/logical choice) - I strongly believe Evul as Mafia would have swung the vote into Lazer's camp. If lazer got lynched and flipped green, it would have thrown the town into absolute chaos. We would have so many targets to chose from, that the three mafia could bandwagon and plurality lynch the non-mafia very easily. @THE_ZEN_MANOn July 07 2012 19:15 The_Zen_Man wrote:
Cant say im too suprised, as my choice was between hope and lazer, and they were about equally scummy too me(lazer obvously more). But for now, lets just wait out the night. We're not content to just "wait out the night" - we need to organize the town, pressure suspicious players, and make reads so we don't take our opinions to the grave. ...and for the 30th time, why is Lazer scummy to you?!?!?!?!?!? I wrote a pretty long post HERE discussing why your suspicions are baseless, yet you're still throwing this around? I want some legitimate answers. What i meant was that we should give the mafia as little information as possible. I know we need to make reads and stuff, but a good way of not letting your opinons go to the grave and not letting mafia get any information is to post just before the deadline. That way, we have your opinions, and mafia cant use that information in time. Concerning Lazermonkey, i will answer them d2. I could use the method i described above to do that, but the deadline will be 3 am in sweden, and i dont want to stay up that long.
From kindle:
We have limited time, especially since people live in diff time zone. And by forcing discussions we may be able to reverse engineer likely scums from who gets targeted. At least we can discuss why someone was targeted in relation to night discussion. And possibly provide more info to detective nurse and tracker.
Personally I sort of convinced by jingle. Tho I would have expected jingle to dare detective to check him. If hes scum hes prob not godfather
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@ YourHarry - If you are "convinced" by jingle, please post why. Its important to read deeply into his defense to determine innocence or guilt. Remember, several players were "convinced" by Hopeless1der's post to my accusations. Upon careful analysis however (my post HERE), Hopeless's defense post contained a lot of mafia motive and logic.
While the posting tone between me and Jingle has considerably changed in the past few hours, that's nowhere near grounds to determine his innocence. So far, my case against him still stands, and he has yet to answer a lot of the incriminating details against him. I ask you to withhold judgement until I can extract the proper answers.
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EPT
