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Right..
I won't expand much on these, but main thoughts heading into d3 are:
theDragoon, why was your vote still on me? I realise my 'theory' was pretty unlikely, but you keeping your vote on me still gave that a chance. Why didn't you switch?
N1k0's vote: Really, I don't think we can base too much off this. It's a complete chance pick between him throwing it on his mafia buddy, or choosing a random town. I'll look back through his filter to see if i see anything, but I wouldn't base too much off of this.
However, the votes on n1k0: I feel OnceKing's line of thought on this is sound, people more reluctant/took longer to vote on n1k0 should be first priorities.
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I actually agree here with Amiko that we should be contributing at night. It's a meta argument here: we didn't want mafia to kill people who were making sense last time but this time having already read the thread they already know who the movers of town discussion are so there's no reason not to be talking at night -- plus, if everyone talks then nobody stands out as an extraordinary target anyway. Not doing this the last night was a mistake.
Also here's a meta nitpick
On February 20 2014 12:54 Lord Tolkien wrote:
I would like Beneather to contribute NOW, and I will bring up a case against you, even if only to pressure.
You shouldn't ever say that you are "voting to pressure" or "building a case for pressure" because that defeats the purpose of it (they know that you don't really think they're scum, so they're not threatened by it, so there's no pressure).
But back to the topic at hand!
So, inactives and hesitant voters: actually not that many people were inactive day 2 other than Beneather. We know the people who were inactive on day 1 though, and we also want to look for hesitant voters.
Keep in mind when I say hesitant voters here I don't necessarily mean people who have voted N1k0 late but instead people who are either:
a) looking for reasons not to vote him/vote someone else
b) bring up convincing points vs N1k0 but do not follow them up (relatively quickly) with their vote
c) bring up convincing points vs N1k0 but vote for someone else
I haven't time yet to look through everyone's filters to determine who fits these criteria as I have class in fifteen minutes, but I will be when my day ends and everyone else should too.
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Okay, here are some of my current thoughts based on the votes and flip.
(1) I feel confident Valenius is town
Whether there are two or three mafia in the game, I feel it is highly unlikely they would begin day 2 by pressuring their mafia teammate n1k0. On this basis, I now feel very good about Valenius because I feel he opened the case against n1k0 and placed his vote on n1k0.
This is particularly good because Valenius presented as less towny (at least to me) and among my lynch candidates going into d2, so having him now present as very likely town puts us in a good position.
To explain this reasoning more in depth:
If there are three mafia, they only needed to get one mislynch to almost certainly secure a win.
In this case, I don’t think bussing n1k0 would make sense. Looking back at the first posts of the day, I think early pressure was building on Valenius. If Valenius is town (as I currently feel) then I feel that would have been the seemingly most obvious target for a mislynch. In other words, I don’t feel mafia would sacrifice n1k0 if they could win by only convincing one person.
If there are two mafia, I still feel they would not try to push a vote on n1k0. It seems too risky with the potential of town power roles alive, and it gives up two votes to manipulate when town appeared undecided day 1.
Thus, I do not think a mafia Valenius would start pressure on mafia n1k0.
(2) I am pretty confident there are two mafia in the game (n1k0 + one other person)
I agree with Valenius’ posts here:
On February 21 2014 16:45 Valenius wrote:
Feels good to lower mafia to one. I dont believe theres any possibility of 3, theyd have played out the theory I posted.
On February 21 2014 04:46 Valenius wrote:If it gets to the end of the day and the votes stay the same; 3 mafia moving their votes to me gets me lynched. theDragoon, who I still have a town read on has his vote on me, which allows for an additional 3 votes, leading to a 4-vote majority. I die, mafia wins, gg.
I do have one thing to add to that, though. I agree with OnceKing as to my question (why didn’t n1k0 fakeclaim a town role) – I think he gave up. I feel like even if he ended up getting lynched, he may have had a better shot at surviving if he claimed a town role once momentum started to build on him. If he’s mafia he doesn’t know what roles town has, so it’s possible if he outed as a role no one would have existed to counterclaim him. I mean, it’d look really scummy when he was still alive and we’d probably kill him d3, but I feel like that would have a mafia desperation/gamble play.
I bring this up here because again, it makes me think this game only has 2 mafia. With 3 mafia that move (which I see as a desperation play) might have been more realistic because swinging just one vote on n1k0 could have led to a win.
(3) I think there is probably a mafia vote among the votes for n1k0
I’m not as confident on this conclusion than my others, but I still feel pretty good about it-
N1k0 pulled five of the seven votes yesterday. Working on the belief there is only one mafia left, I don’t feel a mafia theDragoon would have think he could sway enough town to Valenius to justify keeping his vote there. Moreover, I think momentum built behind n1k0 early enough that mafia could have joined the vote for him.
Although I am among the later votes on n1k0 I think looking at the later votes is worthwhile. I would summarize my reasoning as: (1) I was not confident between Valenius /nik0/Beneather and (2) I felt voting earlier took pressure off Beneather when we needed more info from him. I’m fine with being re-scrutinized d3 but if you also Beneather is high on your scumlist (as I do, see below) realize that we get so little out of him there should be some push on him earlier.
That provides some of the justification for this one:
(4) Right now Beneather is my top vote followed by theDragoon
Going into day 3 my #1 scumread is Beneather.
First, I don’t think Beneather’s vote on n1k0 yesterday night makes him less scummy because it came late enough it was unlikely to swing the vote. Moreover, as noted, I feel there is probably a mafia among the n1k0 votes.
Second, both times Beneather came into the game he raised a case on Valenius. Suspecting n1k0 doesn’t strike me as bad (I felt Valenius was potentially scummy until n1k0’s flip) but here’s my problems:
(1) I don’t think he adequately goes after other players. I pushed him on Tolkien d1 (d1 he said townread Tolkien but only indicated one thing by Tolkien he scumread).
(2) If the scumteam is Beneather + n1k0, I think their best target to mislynch is [b]Valenius[b]. I saw those three as the candidates for today, so if that’s the team it makes sense for him to keep pushing Valenius.
Third, Beneather’s posts seem too conclusive to me. I think most of us post cases as a way to get information push it forward with new thoughts as we go (OnceKing on me, me on Cavalinho, Tolkien on OnceKing, OnceKing on Valenius, Valenius on n1k0). I see Beneather’s posts as votes with a justification. I think this is a little more scummy because they comes late in the day.
To be fair, theDragoon also voted on Valenius. theDragoon is currently my second potential scum on the grounds I don’t read him as towny as the others and keeping his vote on Valenius could reflect an attempt to push the vote onto him. I just think Beneather did so more directly and his playstyle seems wrong to me.
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Well, that's certainly nice. First time in thread being called town, that I can recall~
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I'm going to post my analysis hopefully before the night ends, but my current scumminess scale, from town to scum, is as follows:
Myself (obv)
OnceKing
Valenius
Amiko
---
theDragoon
Beneather
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Like I previously mentioned, N1k0 flipping red most likely means that Valenius is town. So despite my previous read on him as scum, at this point with the information that we have, I’m confident he’s town.
Regarding N1k0: It's possible the mafia planned to bus him, this likely explains the lack of defense from N1k0 if they had agreed to do this. N1k0’s vote on Beneather can mean two things:
1) Random vote on any random player to throw us off
2) Vote on his teammate to keep as much distance from him and N1k0
It’s more likely to be the first case since the second option is risky if we don’t buy his bluff, however we still have to consider that Beneather is his teammate.
At this point I have Beneather as my top scum read. His only posts on day 2 were presenting scum reads on N1k0 and Valenius. He posted this regarding N1k0:
First off, N1k0 seems to be most likely scum as he even stated that he has just backpacked on other people's opinions, that is rather scummy as mafia will try to stay in the shadows and just follow other people's and bandwagon a townie lynch.
He calls N1k0 scum because he backpacked on other people’s opinion, yet he is doing the exact same thing in this post. Also, the rest of his post has a much larger case against Valenius. From reading it I would think he had a better scum read on Valenius than N1k0, but on his next post he says:
Oh I forgot...
##Vote n1k0
As for my town reads I’m very confident that OnceKing and Valenius are town because OnceKing put up the case that pretty much got N1k0 and Valenius got the ball rolling on N1k0's lynch.
I probably look very suspicious right now, seeing as I’m the only remaining player who didn’t vote N1k0. I was the first person to vote for someone on day 2 and thought I had a really good read on Valenius, up until OnceKing posted his case on N1k0, I was convinced that Valenius was scum since I didn't even notice N1k0's piggybacking. As much as I liked OnceKing's post, my pride took the better of me and I wanted to be right about this, on the slim chance N1k0 flipped green I wanted to be the guy that got it right. As I previously stated I was okay with switching my vote in order to get a majority on N1k0 but that wasn't necessary so I stuck to my guns and hoped that my reads were right.
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Beneather, are you planning on being more active in this day phase?
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Final thoughts, and revision of my initial Day 2 reads:
Also here's a meta nitpick Show nested quote +On February 20 2014 12:54 Lord Tolkien wrote:
I would like Beneather to contribute NOW, and I will bring up a case against you, even if only to pressure.
You shouldn't ever say that you are "voting to pressure" or "building a case for pressure" because that defeats the purpose of it (they know that you don't really think they're scum, so they're not threatened by it, so there's no pressure).
Fair.
Third, Beneather’s posts seem too conclusive to me. I think most of us post cases as a way to get information push it forward with new thoughts as we go (OnceKing on me, me on Cavalinho, Tolkien on OnceKing, OnceKing on Valenius, Valenius on n1k0). I see Beneather’s posts as votes with a justification. I think this is a little more scummy because they comes late in the day.
Minor correction: OnceKing stated the N1K0 case, and I started the Valenius case Day 2 (I also decided to point out N1K0 as a possible open case). Valenius started the first vote on N1K0, but the crux of the case was made by OnceKing.
Now specifically on the reads:
1) OnceKing took up the case on N1K0 which I deliberately left open (had no one else raised it, I would've done so later), to see who took it up. I'm at this point 100% confident he's town.
2) Similarly, N1K0's red flip rules out Valenius, who's responses Day 2 acquitted himself well enough in my eyes, and doubled up on this with his early vote against N1K0, when implicating Beneather would be easier (and not point suspicions at N1K0). There are discrepancies in the details at times of his defense (which I have already pointed out), but mostly minor and nothing gaping. He's reading solidly town to me.
3) Reviewing Amiko's filter, I'd put him under scrutiny Day 3. His filter Day 2 reads non-committal and unhelpful, most of it rehashed points made by others before. The only worthwhile and original contribution made Day 2 was the vote analysis, which given the direction Day 2 took after I directed focus onto lurkers, was irrelevant. Now, he did voice his unease with N1K0 during the night phase, but didn't press it and instead wavered on N1K0 for awhile (was among the last to vote along with Beneather, just a ~1hr difference). Out of myself, OnceKing, and Amiko, Amiko currently reads the scummiest.
4) theDragoon's filter Day 2 also reads questionably with N1K0's flip taken into context. The post he voted on Valenius, he had a soft-defense of N1K0, ultimately wavering with a ambiguous read on him.
That being said, he made this post:
If N1k0 gets lynched today and flips red this makes Valenius more likely to be town because he is the first player on day 2 to vote N1k0. There’s no way a mafia Valenius would initiate the lynch on his teammate who has already gotten suspicions from everyone. If Valenius is mafia, then his vote would be cast later after he sees N1k0’s situation unsalvageable. But if N1k0 flips green, then Valenius is definitely the best lynch target on day 3.
Which is solid analysis of their likely relationship, and very relevant in either scenario, and thus gives a town read to me.
5) Beneather has 1 post Day 2, which was pretty much...useless, in all honesty. It tries to paint Valenius as likely scum after N1K0, and all that. I mean, I can't say much else about it. It just reads scummy to me.
The three players who should be put under scrutiny Day 3, depending on Night Kills and actions, would be Amiko, theDragoon, and Beneather for possible scum. In order, I would currently lynch:
1) Beneather
2) Amiko
3) theDragoon
I would currently advocate being ready to claim blue roles Day 3 (at worst, Day 4), and for Vigi (if we have one) to shoot either tonight or Day 4 night.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Lindsay Bluth Fünke: [Tobias was run over by a car] How is he?
The Literal Doctor: It looks like he's dead.
[everyone gasps in shock]
Michael Bluth: Wait, is he really dead or does it look like he's dead?
The Literal Doctor: It looks like he's dead. He's covered in blue paint or something.
...Except this time he was really dead.
OnceKing the medic has been killed.
You have remaining to decide the next lynch.
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I suppose that's not a massive suprise.
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Right, expected mafia kill given Day 2 actions.
Now let's lynch Beneather.
##vote Beneather
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Damn, you beat me to it. I was checking his filter to see if he had any more posts than I thought he did 
##vote Beneather
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Beneather, did you have a hard time deciding who to kill tonight, or did you have OnceKing planned from yesterday?
Also, bed for me. Night guys.
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I mean, unless I actually hear something substantive from him, it's [le]terally the easiest vote to make.
There's no reason for him to be so quiet, especially with the flip. In the event he's town, it still removes an idle town member, and paves the way for the end-game.
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If someone else wants to raise a case, please do. Otherwise this day cycle is boring as fk.
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I think it goes without saying at this point.. if there's a cop out there, and you have any checks on any of the alive players.. you come out. If today's as 'active' as yesterday, but with the omission of OK.. yeah. boring.
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If i wake up 8-10 hours from now (I fancy a lie in), and there's been no other posts, I'll be very disappointed
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Down to lynch Beneather as well. It's really annoying how he only posts enough to not get modkilled. If he somehow flips green I think the lynch would still be worth it given he hasn't helped us at all.
##Vote Beneather
Could OnceKing have used his power on himself? I really think he should have given his play on day 2.
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oh, and are you guys planning on joining in on the next newbie game? I think I will, it's been good fun.
(If any of you dare try to pull me up for not only speaking about this game..)
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EPT![[image loading]](http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m2qh9zuSyV1qarqrxo1_500.gif)
